Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the cryptv verse.com My apologies for not making a video for The last few days I've actually had Strap throat um I still have it but I Have been on antibiotics for the last Day or so so I am feeling a little bit Better um but I will do my best to at Least provide some typee of an update Here uh before the weekend um right now Bitcoin is currently coming in just Below $34,000 one of the things that we have Mentioned is is sort of distinguishing Between whether this is new money coming Into the space or whether it's a Rotation of capital from the altcoin Market into Bitcoin and I still lean Towards the ladder um that of course Could be proven wrong but you know we're Still at a point here where total market Cap seems to be topping out at the same Level that it did back in April and in And in July this is a total market cap Of the entire crypto asset class now if In the coming weeks we take out this Range here and go up here then we'll Clearly you could argue that new money

Has come in but as long as total market Cap continues to to just sort of top out At the same level that it's topped out At all year I think the Argument is that this is just a rotation Of capital from Altcoins into Bitcoin and and why is That is because people are going from Higher risk assets like altcoins with Very little liquidity to lower risk Assets like Bitcoin with more Liquidity now that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is immune to drops in the market It's just it can be held up longer than The altcoin market just because the Liquidity flows are going from altcoins Into Bitcoin whereas there's not a lot Of flows going from Bitcoin into alts That's not to say that no alts are Outperforming some of them I'm I'm sure Are but most of them continue to Underperform bit underperform Bitcoin So Um the other way to look at this is to Look at the market cap without Bitcoin So if you were to look at total two so This is everything besides Bitcoin in This case you don't see a going back to The same level that we were at in April Or in May or in July I mean April or July you see us potentially putting in Yet another lower high so whereas total Market cap continues to go up to the

Same level it includes Bitcoin it's that Rotation of capital from alts to bitcoin Total two which excludes Bitcoin has Been putting in clear lower highs all Year long right April topped out at 661 Billion and then in July it topped out At 621 billion and so far in October It's topped out at 584 billion it's Interesting that the time frame between These is about about 3 months or so um You know this one was 13 weeks from this Top to this top from this top to this Most recent one potential about 15 weeks So Approximately approximately Approximately three months between Between both So you can see here total two lower Highs total three which excludes Bitcoin And Ethereum well it's been putting in lower Highs even since August of 2022 you know At least total two was able to was able To come up close to these highs right it Didn't overtake them the high from August 2022 but it came to within you Know from this Wick here to to this Wick Right here it came to within 5% of it Total three on the other Hand from this High it was still 11 or 12% Away but total three excluding Bitcoin And Ethereum has been putting in lower highs

As well and I mean I know a lot of People get excited on every single lower High by the altcoin market but at this Point that is nothing it's been nothing More than one lower high after after Another and we can all go and celebrate Each low or high if we want to or we can Say is this just another lower high is There anything to celebrate just yet I Don't think so total three still lower High maybe that changes but it hasn't Changed yet total two still lower High total Market potentially fade you know Potentially fading at the same levels That it has all year and if it does then Is it nothing more than a rotation of Capital from alts to Bitcoin So bitcoin's currently coming in At 33,600 33,700 or so so there's been this Rotation of alt to Bitcoin now if we think back to to why I've said before the secondary scare Materializes no be a sort of written it Off and and maybe they have their Reasons for doing so and I'm not saying Their reasons are not legitimate I I Think they probably have good reasons to Think otherwise But if we had imagine or we think back To why I I say the secondary scare for Bitcoin occurs there's two reasons first Of all F reason number one is eventually

We reach a point where there's no longer Liquidity in the altcoin market to Support the price of Bitcoin USD okay so When Bitcoin drops you know after it's Been a year dropping and putting in Higher lows thanks to the altcoin market Which have been putting in lower lows Eventually there's no liquidity left in The altcoin market support pi Bitcoin Right because they've all been bled dry And then bit then Bitcoin gets that Secondary Scare the the other main reason that Bitcoin gets secondary scare is not Crypto related it just has to do with Macro environment the S&P 500 and and Equities and that sort of stuff and when You go look at the S&P 500 I mean it's Still melting to to the downside right I This is this looks pretty bad by the S&P it's down down you know almost 11% Now this is clearly in correction Territory 10% or more correction Territory now we talked earlier about a Seasonal correction in the S&P 500 Starting in August right it go back to Pre-election years this this blue line Here so so this is the year-to DAT Roi The S&P 500 the blue line is the year-to DAT Roi the S&P 500 averaged out through All prior pre-election years years going Back to the late 1920s and you can see That we normally get a pre-election year Correction in August and September but

It normally bottoms Out in either September or early October and then it starts to go back up Or maybe mid October and then it starts To go back up Um but unfortunately you know at this Point I you know at some point you reach The phase where you say this is no Longer a seasonal correction and it's Something more and you have to wonder is It is it becoming something more now Because normally at this point the S&P Has has sort of found a low and it's Starting to Trend back up but so far This year we're now at the end of October and the S&P is still going down This is one of these things we warned About that what happens if it turns into Something more you know sometimes when You think about the labor Market think about what causes the S&P 500 to drop is it the unemployment rate Going up no the the unemployment rate Going up does not make the S&P drop the S&P dropping makes the unemployment rate Go up okay that's why the S&P 500 only Bottoms before the unemployment rate Tops is because the S&P leads the market Leads the narratives come later the Market leads so if the market is Sniffing out weakness then it'll go down And that'll lead to the unemployment Rate going Higher and you might say well Ben the

Unemployment rate has been very low for A long time and you're right I mean if You go look at the unemployment Rate it's at 3.8 3.8% but it is starting to move higher Slowly but surely go look at 3 month Month moving average of It it's starting to move up now it's a Slow process and I know I know as crypto People we like things to happen like That or or it doesn't matter right but It is starting to move higher and if you Were to look at continued Claims there are some some warnings Going off here we talked earlier about How last year it bottom down in September it started moving up looks Like the same thing's Happening Here Bottoming out in September and now it's Moving up quickly look at a month over Monon percentage change of continued Claims this is this is pointing out some Saying there's you know there's some red Flags the S&P is going down and it's Been going down for a While so you have to Wonder how much longer can Bitcoin Ignore that How much longer well that's really hard To say to be completely honest to be Completely honest I'm surprised it's Held out this long right now I know Going into the year I said that I Thought Bitcoin would range between 12K

To 35k but after 35k was not hit in the Summer I sort of discounted it as a as a Likely Scenario nevertheless Bitcoin did go on To hit 35k so where do we go from here I mean I I I think there is a risk risk here of Of Bitcoin fading this move okay now if You look back at the context of History You know we said we were going to get a Death cross rally and I I mean I don't Know about you guys but this is one hell Of a death cross rally right I mean I I Certainly was not expecting a new yearly High but we also saw something very Similar in 2021 right where we had a Death cross and um and then after it you Know we ended up getting a new yearly High but an interesting thing to look at Is if you think about it after a death Cross you normally Dum or you normally Rally after a golden cross you normally Get a dump and we're actually about to Get a gold a golden cross actually Probably with the next few days assuming What you know just depending on what Bitcoin's price does I would also point Out that there was a similar move Actually in 2019 I I honestly again I Did not think this one was going to be a 40% move we've seen we've seen Diminished volatility uh but needless to Say this move over here was about a 41%

Rally back in 2019 which is more or less What we just experienced maybe a little Bit less about a 39% rally but after it Which had top out on October 26 um Bitcoin then saw about a 38 39% Drop just to get just for reference Right a 38 I'm not saying it has to Happen but a 38% drop puts Bitcoin in Low 20s now the way that Bitcoin would Go to that level would be if if the Unemployment rate really starts to to Deteriorate right so like if we actually Go into a recession which I think is a Likely outcome at the end of this Business cycle then yeah you can take Out these prior these prior lows okay um And if that happens and and the altcoin Market at that point is completely blood Dry then that's where that secondary Scare comes into play remember everyone Always gets excited about the Having and then at some point before the Having we get a fairly sizable drop Normally it's been at least I mean I Well look normally it's been it's been 40 50% drop um just for reference right I mean it I know people say it won't Happen this time but i' I've seen it Happen every time before and everyone Always says it won't and then it does And if you had to pick a pick a way in Which it does happen I mean it would be The fact that the S&P is is in meltdown Mode

You know this is this is a pretty a Pretty nasty chart and there's been a Lot of people that have been very Bullish on the S&P and we're calling for New highs back in July and we said no We're probably going to get a seasonal Correction and there's a chance it could Turn into more than that and guys I mean This really does seem to be turning into Something more than That so the reason for the secondary Scare by Bitcoin is usually not crypto Related it usually has nothing to do With crypto it's the fact that the rest Of the market the rest of the financial Market is is dropping and that pulls Bitcoin down with it that's what Normally happens So we'll see how much longer Bitcoin can Ignore it but um at some point I don't Think it's going to be able to ignore it Too much longer and then it will then it Will likely drop and um unfortunately There just will not be any liquidity in The Aquin Market to uh to to help stop It as as early as some people might Like and if you were to go look at total 3 minus usdt Bitcoin it it put in a new Low in fact it went down to 39% uh which is lower than it has before Uh at least this cycle you can see that It took out the the prior the prior low From June and that's not a great sign by The way you know at this point in 2019

It was around this level when when Bitcoin did um uh sort of find that I Mean it sort of topped out at this level For total 3 minus USD Bitcoin and then It it sort of ranged there for you know For a few weeks maybe 3 to four weeks Where you know went back down and then Went back up and put in a slightly lower High but this is is sort of around the Level that it sort of topped out uh Where total 3 minus USD Bitcoin there is Still though some um uh potential Evidence of even more liquidity because Total 2 minus USD Bitcoin is still Relatively elevated at 72% whereas last Cycle it did not Bitcoin did not top out Until it was closer to around you know The mid-50s um so a lot of that Liquidity is still coming from uh from Ethereum you know and Ethereum the The Ether Bitcoin ratio has Has been one of these things that I know A lot of people have been optimistic on Ever since the merge but guys I mean the Merge was here and it's been lower highs And lower lows ever since I mean this is One of those things that like I feel Like so many people were so bullish on This thing because of the merge and and It's been lower highs and lower lows Ever since and I can't tell you how many People I got into arguments with on Twitter for whatever reason I don't know Why

Um saying that this would break out to The upside that it was a bullish Ascending or bullish descending wedge to Break to the upside I said no same thing Was said last cycle and it broke down And look guys it it broke down right it Broke Down perhaps this is the last support to Break 049 then what are they going to say then What are they going to say about The Ether Bitcoin pair once it breaks 049 I told you guys they're going to Just keep saying it's holding up well Until they can no longer say that and by The time they realize it it's going to Be too late it's been putting in lower Highs and lower lows since the merg and And everyone just keeps acting like it's Holding up well what happens if in a few Months it's down here 03 to 04 then is It holding up well at what point do we Say it's no longer holding up Well The NASDAQ looks kind of like this chart In fact look at the NASDAQ look at This it's breaking down arguably the S&P Is breaking down too A lot of people Were looking at this hoping that it was Going to break to the Upside it hasn't it has Not ethereum's Bitcoin valuation told You that it probably wasn't I think one

Of the main use cases for crypto is just To know how much liquidity there is how Much excess liquidity there is so you Can see The Ether Bitcoin is breaking Down you can see that the NASDAQ is Breaking down the S&P is breaking down And Bitcoin stubborn as it is is Holding but I think the reason it's Holding is because all this liquidity From the rest of the market is is Helping to support It so you know again going into this Year we said Bitcoin will likely range Between 12K and 35k we've hit 35k I don't know how much higher it can Go my guess is not very much higher but Unfortunately for Bitcoin I don't think It's going to be able to ignore the S&P 500 for too much Longer okay as long as the S&P continues To drop uh that will that will drag is Sort of tear away a Bitcoin and it'll Ignore it for a long time and people Will say it's holding up well just like They said ether Bitcoin is holding up Well but at some point it will Move in the direction I think that the S&P is going and when it does it'll Probably be very very Quick that is my Guess a lot of these views we've had Have panned out right Bitcoin Dominance it's been bullish all year Bitcoin dominance is now something

That's people a lot of people are get Starting to get on board with which Mak Me a little bit nervous to be completely Honest um but it's been above the bull Market sport fan no weekly closes below It all year long not one weekly close Below the bullmark sport fan all year Long and has it not been the thing that People have faded the most it's not 54% you know what happens if Bitcoin Pulls Back and then it goes up to 56% I mean If if it pulls back too quickly then Bitcoin dominance might go down first But I'm still guessing it continues to Go Higher this is 10 green weeks in a row What did we Say we said when this breaks it can move Quickly and it's moving quickly and It'll probably keep moving quickly Through the end of the Year I don't think I have anything else To say about It Um ether dominance looks Terrible I mean again this is another One that that people say is holding up Well but I mean look it's lower Highs and higher Lows my guess is this is coming way back Down Here it's my [Music]

Guess so we'll see what happens Um I still speculate dubiously of course That this could end up marking another High on total Market where it's just another rotation Of capital man imagine if we get a Fourth one of these near the having Where it goes back up and then and Bitcoin dominance just keeps going up And alls just keep getting wrecked right I mean all coins are bleeding Guys you might not recognize it yet Because it's it's happening it's not Happening on their USD pairs but it's Happening on their Bitcoin pairs look at Ada a Bitcoin it's still going down look New low this cycle this week alone avac New lows this week do Bitcoin new lows This week B&B Bitcoin new lows this Week a lot of these alts are putting in New lows this week on their Bitcoin Pairs so when you think about the bull Market that Occurred over Here right over here it did not occur Until after all the altcoin market had Basically bled back to bitcoin and then We scraped the lows for a little while Right we're still in the bleeding back To bitcoin Phase okay so that's where that's why I I you know that's why I think that this Is mostly just a a rotation of capital And we've talked about that for a long

Time I've said in the prehab year if you If you want to be in crypto Bitcoin is Where you want to be because the bit Bitcoin dominance is likely going up Either way so if Bitcoin Goes Up alts Get Wrecked if Bitcoin goes down alts Get wrecked right it's not a very Complicated Outlook it's just altcoins Get wrecked no matter what which is an Artifact of quantitative tightening Right I know some people look at at the Dominance and they you know their their Hope was that it would already top out a Few months ago because of what it did Last cycle but I think the more Important thing to recognize is that Dominance topped out in in September Last cycle because the FED had already Started cutting rates we haven't even Seen the FED start cutting rates yet and Last cycle it took another month or two After the First Rate cut where dominance Even topped out we're not even looking At rate Cuts Yet so why should we assume that the Dominance is topped out if dominance can Help us understand if liquidity is going From high risk to low risk in a hiking Cycle in a in a period of quantitative Tightening Why would we assume it Stops before the FED starts cutting it Didn't stop last cycle until the FED Started cutting so why should we assume

It stops this cycle before the FED Starts Cutting liquidity is Flowing from high Risk to low risk doesn't mean the lower Risk things can't drop it's just that When they drop that normally marks the End because when they drop then the FED Notices right when the S&P drops then The FED starts to notice do you you Think the FED cared about the S&P when It when it was at 4600 no it's too Elevated do they care with it at 4,100 Probably not will they care if it's at 3500 or 3,400 yes they will start to care and That is when they'll start to to to cut Is my Guess so watch the S&P you know if You're curious about altcoins when they Turn around against Bitcoin it's Normally not until the having Year but more specifically it's not Until we go back to QE and unfortunately For altcoins we're likely not going back To QE if the S&P is at 4,100 so the way you know when it's time For alts in General Is after the FED pivots the FED won't Pivot until the S&P crashes the S&P 500 Has not crashed yet okay that's normally How the cycle goes but It's look pretty bad it's not going in The right direction look at the look at

The S&P like This L chart looks pretty bad I'm not Saying it can't bounce I mean it Probably will at some point but this Looks pretty Bad so we'll see how much longer Bitcoin Can hold on but um ether Bitcoin looks Pretty bad alt Bitcoin pairs most of Them putting in new lows collectively The altcoin market is putting in new Lows against Bitcoin that you can see on This chart um hasn't yet with total 2 Minus us Bitcoin but it has clearly Taken out the June low showing the Relative weakness in ethereum and you Can see that relative weakness by Ethereum dominance and you also know That everything else has been weak Against Bitcoin because the dominance of Bitcoin just keeps going higher you know It it was it 38% and then 40% and then 42 and then 47 and then 51 and then 5 I Mean now it's at 54% and then it'll probably go to 56% Before too long maybe we get some Consolidation right I mean I don't know Um But the dominance I still think has the Ways to go up regardless the direction Of Bitcoin USD and if the S&P 500 Continues to drop then at some point I I Think Bitcoin will no longer be able to Uh to ignore it if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the

Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out into the cryptoverse premium And into the cryptoverse decom I do Still have strap so I'm probably not Going to make too many videos over the Weekend uh so hopefully this one will do At least until um probably Sunday night Maybe I'll do one Sunday night I don't Really know um but yeah I don't I just Don't feel that great so until next time See you guys bye

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