Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the crypto Various premium add into the that sale of course Is going to end at the end of the month So make sure you guys check it out let's Go ahead and jump in so Bitcoin has is Still in this sort of holding pattern Here where it's it's moved down below The bull market support pan and we Talked about the reason the why Bitcoin Would actually get this move was likely Going to be due to a seasonal correction In the S P 500 in the August to September time frame right it's like if You were to look at year-to-date Roi of Of the S P 500 in 2023 and you just Simply go and compare it to all prior Pre-election years at least that we have Up on here This is normally when we get you know a Seasonal correction in the S P 500 and It is usually when Bitcoin Falls below Its bull Mark scorpion in fact you can See that it did it here in August of 2023 it also did it in September of 2019 It also did it in August of 2015 and it Also fell below it in August of 2011. so We've seen every pre prior pre-halving

Year for Bitcoin it falls below the bull Market support ban now in 2011 it Remained in a downtrend until November In 2012 in 2019 it remained in a Downtrend until March 2020. if we did Not have the the pandemic then perhaps It would have lasted until the end of The year in 2015 it lasted until it Basically it was just over right away Because we had a capitulation down and It was a double bottom right so we got a Double bottom That was where the secondary scare Terminated over here secondary scare Over here did not terminate until the Early part of the having year Um and then now we're simply trying to Figure out where is the secondary scare Going to in fact terminate but again you Know our analysis of a a seasonal Correction in the s p which is what it Normally gets corresponding to a drop by The by by Bitcoin below its bull market Sport band and it's not it's not just Taking the average of all prior pre Having or pre-election years just take a Look at at so this 2023 look at 2019 Right we also had you know a a Correction in this time frame for the S P 500 and it still went on to put in new New highs in Q4 it was also putting in New highs over here too and we could Even the s p could go up in Q4 it all Depends on when does the recession risk

Actually materialize you know at this Point initial claims and continued Claims are still relatively low So you know that hasn't yet that hasn't Really yet come to pass and so uh this Is still within the realm of of Prior Seasonal Corrections by the s p 500. if We start to see the the labor market Show signs of weakness then perhaps this Move over here doesn't actually come so It all depends on on you know the Weakness that we start to potentially See in the labor market you can also see In 2015 uh we had a fairly large Seasonal correction around this time and In 2011 we had a large correction in the S P 500 around this time so in all prior Cases the drop by Bitcoin below its bull Market sport band has corresponded to a Seasonal correction by the S P 500 and It's pre-election Year and that leads to Bitcoin going below its bull market Support band and kicking off the Secondary scare in August September of The pre-having year now Normally what happens after Bitcoin goes Below the bull market sport band you Know unless you get a massive windfall Event uh right so like in 2015 we had a Massive windfall where where Bitcoin Double bottomed right so if you get Something like that then you know then Then things could play out sooner right If you get something like this where you

Just go all the way go down to a double Bottom Um and then you go up but last cycle it Was actually a much more painful bleed Right where we went down we went back up To the bull market sport pad we even Wicked above it but we faded and then Put in a new a new local low right we Took out this prior low over here the June low and we and we took out whatever Load this was and we came all the way Down here Um and and put in a new local low and Then we put on another low in in the Early part of the having year So you know I still love the opinion That the most likely outcome in the Short term is a rejection off the bull Market support ban taking us down to Another local low that is what I would Guess is the most likely outcome I could Be wrong right like you should Understand I could be wrong I get I get Plenty of things wrong I don't want to Pretend otherwise uh the receipts are There the history is there you can go Find plenty of things have been wrong About I could be wrong you know maybe it Doesn't get rejected I just think the Most likely outcome is a rejection uh You might say well what about 2015 you Know 2015 we just went below it and then Got you know went straight back up That's true but but in 2015 we also had

A you know a pretty sizable drop I mean It was a 50 drop down to a double bottom Right and this double bottom also was Coming off about 100 rally about a 90 Rally and then we dropped back down to Another bottom here we've had about 100 Rally but this drop so far is it really That much in the grand scheme right like It's only from these highs it's only Been about a 20 percent dropper so I Suspect that that Bitcoin will go down Further before the year is over We've talked about year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin in prehabbing years as well We've seen that in the second half of The year if we wreck the Bears in the First half we tend to wreck the Bulls in The second half and yeah I mean like you Know right now if you're curious where The bull Mark sport fan is it currently Ranges from around 27 222 to 27 886 so It's more or less around 27 2 to 27.9 Uh is where the bull market sportbit is And in fact we've already Wicked above The 21 week EMA already like we've Already you know had enough we've Already seen the Bulls take us above the 21 Wiki ma but as I said before in order For this to mean anything you would you Probably need to see multiple weekly Closes above the bull market support Band Which I think is somewhat of an unlikely Outcome in the short term it doesn't

Mean that it can't happen it doesn't Mean that it can't happen like this year But I just think right now it's unlikely To to really get that without you know First getting another another leg to the Downside so my guess my best guess is That we fall short of new highs or new Yearly highs and we just get rejected And we come back down into this area That's what I would guess is the most Likely outcome uh based on all the data That I'm looking at right that is what I Would think is the most likely outcome The Bitcoin then comes back down into These levels and maybe 23k uh somewhere Around those levels and and if you look At it on a monthly time frame you can See why 23k could be an interesting Level is that's sort of where this Monthly this monthly resistance level Was and we sort of built out some Support so I kind of still think that we Are heading back in that direction and That we are that we will likely fade Back down to this level my initial guess Was that it would happen this month I Still think it could happen this month We still have the last week of September To go in fact in September 2019 the you Know for the first 21 days Bitcoin was Up about four or five percent or so it Wasn't until the last week of September Where Bitcoin really dropped and it Dropped below the 21 custom made which

Right now we're already below but it Could correspond to a rejection off of The 20-week customer Um So I would be looking for some type of Move like that if it doesn't happen this Month I still think it will be happening Before the end of the year and and you Know sort of come back down to these 23 000 level and and and see if you know See what what happens there and I I Think that that happens regardless of Whether a recession risk materializes Instantaneously or not the recession Risk has more so the risk of taking you Below those levels in my opinion right So like you know a recession risk would Would more so deal with taking you below This level I don't think a recession Just gets you to 23k I mean that's just Sort of usual business for for Bitcoin And prehabbing years can get you to 23k The recession risk is what happens Potentially after that because again in 2019 you can see that after we kind of Came down here and put in these lows Um after going out up to the bull market And getting rejected Bitcoin came back Down put in these lows but then when the The recession actually materialized we Went all the way down here right we went We went much lower so I think that you Know it it's true that in the short term Bitcoin could go into 23k I don't think

That you have to have a recession for Bitcoin to go to 23k I think Bitcoin Goes to 23k just because that's what Bitcoin does in free having years is you Wreck both sides Um but going below that Into these levels That I think is where a potential Recession Could material like that's where a Recession could actually call something Like that to happen and that's why I've Said you know I don't know if if we put In a higher low I don't know if we put In a lower low I don't know if it's a Double bottom we've got context for a Lot of different things we got a double Bottom in 2015 that a lot of people uh Choose to ignore because it it's Convenient to ignore it sorry about this I don't know really what's going on here Um So we have this double bottom here That I think is relevant to to pay Attention to we have a higher low Right here that's relevant to pay Attention to Could be either of those Could be a lower low who knows maybe Maybe we go down to the 2019 High to That 13 to 14K level I don't know but What I do know is that historically Bitcoin gets a secondary scare and Normally as we've pointed out if you

Look at the logarithmic regression Rainbow the secondary scare Terminates at a band lower than where The initial one went right so and we've Talked about this a few times uh but Like you know sort of this bear Market Ended right here on this regression band If I can pull this up so it sort of Ended right there and then the secondary Scare terminated at the at the next Regression band down this bear Market Ended right there the secondary scare Sort of terminated at another regression Band down with a slight lick below it This bear Market ended there we had a Secondary scare that took us all the way Down to a lower regression band it was Still a higher low this time the spare Market ended here if we go down another Regression man that puts you you know at Around 13 to 14K at this time that would Be if it went down today but again this Is a monotonically increasing function By the end of the year this is likely Going to correspond more so to like a Double bottom type thing so it all Depends on when it happens and I don't Know when it's going to happen I I Really don't know I I look at the stock Market and it seems like it you know It's it's getting the seasonal Correction at some point it's likely Going to start pricing in a recession or At least people get scared about a

Recession and then the FED does Something Um I just don't think that that has Happened yet and therefore we have to Still be open to the idea The Bitcoin the secondary scare for Bitcoin is not yet over I don't think it's going to be over Until after there's some type of Resolution to the yield curve you know As long as we don't have a resolution to The yield curve that's sort of just Going to be looming over over our head Um so I think you the secondary scare Terminates sometimes you know between Now and then right and Um and until then we just have to you Know take it one day at a time but in The grand scheme of things you know this Is not that different from what we've Historically seen In terms of in terms of price action in The second half of prehabbing years Likely to see a rejection if we do get Above it just recognize that that's not That in common to get above it it Doesn't mean anything until you actually Get multiple weekly closes above it and You get like follow through right so Like back over here In in 2022 we got above it but there was Really no follow-through to it when we Got above it here there was follow Through right so if you do get above it

If the Bulls get back above it if they Push the price of Bitcoin back above You'd still want to see them Hold it and push higher over the over The next couple of weeks for it to Really mean anything in 2019 you know we Had a wick above it and we didn't hold It right even in 2020 we got above it And and the recession took us below it Again so all this stuff still has to Come to pass the resolution of the yield Curve the the seasonal correction by the S p could be coming you know coming to An end in the next week or so that Doesn't mean that it can't go lower I Mean it certainly could especially if a Recession risk materializes but we still Haven't really seen the labor market Move so I don't know exactly when it's Going to get priced in Um but yeah I just wanted to sort of Come on here speculate about where Bitcoin is talk about that you know this Is more or less what we talked about a Rally after the death Cross or into the Death cross which is pretty much what we Got right what happened death cross Rally up so far we're getting rejected By the 50-day SMA if we do about get Above the 50 days note that the 200 days All the way up at around 27 831 some other areas of con of Interest Might be the 200 week which is out Twenty seven thousand eight hundred and

Seventy so if Bitcoin does move up Another thousand dollars or so just Recognize that that's getting back up to That 200-week SMA which is actually Where we held uh some some sort of Support over here and maybe some Resistance out this way some resistance At this level and so on and so forth so That would be a potentially a difficult Area to get through in a sustained way For a little bit especially given where We are in the cycle and the typical Weakness that Bitcoin sort of shows in The second half of of its prehabbing Year my guess if I were to sort of Blindly speculate as to as to how this Thing might play out my guess is that we You know we see some type of lower high We it could already be in right we see Some type of lower high we go down to Around 23k plus or minus you know a Thousand dollars or so Maybe from there you get another another Move back up but you still have to deal With the resolution of the yield curve And when we when we deal with the Recession risk finally getting priced in I don't know if it's a lower high I Don't know or sorry I don't know if it's A high or low I don't know if it's up a Double bottom or lower low you should be Prepared for all three outcomes and After all that after all that happens And QE starts to return that's when all

Coins start to to show a bit more Strength with respect to bitcoin not Before that's when they start to show Strength after all that stuff happens It's just hard to be patient right it's Hard for a lot of people to be patient To wait for all that stuff to come to Pass and so they end up losing a lot of Money in the altcoin market Um just feeling like they're gonna get Left behind but until QE returns until The FED pivots are somewhere around There I just don't see it I don't see the Altcoin market as making that that move In any sustained way so that's where we Are guys today uh hopefully hopefully You guys enjoy the content make sure you Guys give the video a thumbs up oh by The way the other thing I wanted to Mention is that this back test of the Bull market support band has been Corresponding to the the s p bouncing Off its own bull market sport band right So like and we talked about that before We said over here that this Bounce by Bitcoin off of its bull market support Band would likely lead total three the Altcoin market to back test it's bull Market support band and it did right so Bitcoin bounced then total three back Tested and then we said that Bitcoin might back test its own bull Market support band if the s p bounces

Off of its and it did right the s p Bounced off its bull Mark's sport band And Bitcoin Back tested it's bull market sport band So as you go further down the risk curve Or further up the risk curve you can see How how each sort of sector gets weaker A little bit sooner right so the altcoin Market showed weakness first then Bitcoin showed weakness by going below The bull market support ban and back Testing it Now the s p got this sort of this bounce Off the bull market support band and Then Bitcoin back tested its 20-week SMA The issue now though is that this is Actually below the 20 week estimate so If the s p Can't Hold This it could pull Recession risk forward if the s p starts To to go down very very quickly uh if on The other hand the s p kind of holds This and and slowly moves back up that Doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to Move up with it Bitcoin can still get Rejected and go put in a new local low Remember money moves from higher risk to Lower risk and all coins are super high Risk Bitcoin comes you know ethereums After all coins then Bitcoin then I mean I know a lot of people are here saying Like well bitcoin's better than better Than stocks but as far as risk is Concerned as far as volatility during Uncertain times Bitcoin does not have uh

I mean it has a lot of volatility and And so I would argue that Bitcoin is in That sense is riskier than the stock Market I mean the stock market doesn't Typically drop 80 like Bitcoin does Every few years right so there's more Inherent risk in terms to the downside In Bitcoin to other is in the stock Market at least what we've historically Seen So you know you could see Bitcoin put in A lower high and then go down and put in A lower low and that doesn't necessarily Mean that the s p has to plummet either Right people might just be rotating Capital out of in the same way they Rotate from all coins to bitcoin maybe Some of them just rotate from Bitcoin to Stocks right and so you can kind of see As you go further down people go further Down the risk curve they want to take on Less and less and less risk but by the Time QE returns all that you know a lot Of people want to take on that risk Again and that's when the altcoin starts To do well and Bitcoin does really well And then the stock market you know but It but it all kind of comes and comes in That cycle so that's what we're looking At guys you know this is where we are Bitcoin back testing it off the balance By the s p into its you know buy into Into bitcoin's death cross remember when When Bitcoin gets this death cross what

It normally means is is you get a A short-term rally followed by a Continuation of the trend right so you See a a short-term rally but the overall Trend is likely going to remain intact Just like with the golden cross right so Over here when we got the the Golden Cross right when we got the golden cross Right here we went down first but the Overall trend up remained intact so I Suspect that something like that will Probably happen again where we got this Rally but it probably just ends up being A lower high but ending the overall Trend down generally remains intact Right so that is what I would guess Um I mean this one over here was was pretty Crazy because you know what it did was It it put in a low into the death cross And then rallied up put in a higher high Then put in a lower low if it were to do That over here it would mean like you Know coming down here putting in a lower Low then rallying up and then going down Right like it could do something like That Could also just sort of rally up into a Lower high and then sort of just slowly Fade down to that 23k level and then we Priced in recession risk uh Sometime Late they'll share early next year and Then we figure out if it's a higher low A double bottom or a lower low that is

My best guess dubious speculation as Finest I would not advise you take Taking any of what I said to the bank Because they will not cash it in Um but that is where that's where I see The cryptoverse right now thank you guys For tuning in make sure you subscribe Give the video thumbs up but again check Out the sale on into the crypto versus Premium at into the We'll see you guys next time bye


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