Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the crypto Various premium at into the bitcoin's currently Trading just below 29 000 we talked Previously about how Bitcoin would Likely fade back in here to the 20 week Estimate 21 with EMA or the bull Mark Sport Band by the August to September Time frame and what's interesting is we Also mentioned that when Bitcoin or if Bitcoin bounces off the 20 week we Didn't know I mean I didn't know that it Would we said that if Bitcoin bounces Off the bull market support ban it would Likely lead to the altcoin market back Testing its own bull market sportban but Showing no real ability to get back Above it in a sustained way and I think We've seen that here we've seen Bitcoin Bounce off the 28 but even though Bitcoin bounced quite a bit instead you See that the altcoin market Can't get back above it so in terms of Trying to figure out when a will Bitcoin Hold the line or will it not we do have To remember that there are previous many Previous examples in Q3 of the Prehabbing Year where Bitcoin does fall

Below the 20-week SMA you can see that It happened in 2015 it happened in 2019 And it also of course happened in 2011 And one of the reasons that happens is Not necessarily crypto related I think You could make the case that there's Some element of the s p getting a Seasonal correction around this time in Pre-election years this is 2023 Year-to-date Roi compared to 2019 Compared to 2015. again a lot of seasonal Corrections around this time here's 2011 And here's 2007. so a lot of times we Get these seasonal Corrections in the S P 500 in August or September of the Pre-election year that then calls us Bitcoin to lose its support level of the 20-week SMA in Q3 of the pre having year And if that happens that can lead to the Capitulation of the altcoin market Remember it was in Q3 of 2019 where many All coins found local lows or macro lows On their Bitcoin pair so I think that's Something to look out for but remember One of the things we said previously is That The fact that total three is still Fading here with no real ability to get Back above the 20-week SMA shows you why You should not assume that alt season is Coming for the altcoin market right this Is a lot of people were talking about This just a few weeks ago right and if

You're not with them you're against them Right and you're you have no idea what You're talking about but we talked about How if the market is so bullish Why is total three unable to get back Above its 20 week SMA in a sustained way Right if you look at Bitcoin it's been Above it the entire time so you have to Ask yourself what happens to the altcoin Market if Bitcoin Falls below the 20 Week estimate think about how weak the Altcoin market has been even though Bitcoin has been above the bull market Sport band for the first you know seven Or eight months of this year so if Bitcoin were to go below the 20 week SMA And get a sizable correction then of Course that could easily lead to Capitulation in the altcoin market right I know this is not necessarily a popular View But we've been talking about it for a Long time and you can see that total Three continues to remain stuck in Traffic on struggle Street and as you Can see the 50-week SMA has also been Sort of knocking total three back down Uh more or less every step of the way we Got one maybe one or two weekly closes Back above it over here but ever since Then we've just seen weekly closes below The 50-week moving average for the Altcoin market in terms of going back Over to bitcoin I'd like to take at

Least a brief moment to look at the Year-to-date Roi Um of 2023 compared to that average of 2015 and 2019 and the reason we do that Is because it has been tracking Relatively well do note that it comes Back if it does come back down into These levels you're looking at around a 23 000 Bitcoin which I think is is very Much in the cards sometime later this Year so if you do see Bitcoin go back in Fall back into that 23 000 level do know That that is below the 20 week SMA and It would currently sit from the current Price about About a 20 drop is yeah you would Basically be looking at a 20 drop to see Bitcoin back at 23k interestingly enough This weekly candle back over here in 2019 for Bitcoin was a 20 drop so just Going back into the average of the prior To pre-halving years for Bitcoin going Back to these levels is slightly below This level which we hit which was around About 24 to 25k level so going a bit Lower puts you at around 23 000 I think That that could certainly make sense Especially given where the altcoin Market is the the fact that Bitcoin Dominance is still low and the fact that The social risk continues to slowly go Down we talked a little bit about the Social risk recently so I wanted to just Bring it back up uh just for a moment if

We can just pull the social risk back up You can see it's currently at 0.168 but It has been putting in lower highs and Lower lows for quite some time sort of Signifying that retail are still Continuing to capitulate especially in The altcoin market and that's one of the Reasons why you see the altcoin market Still go down the reason why we talk About the all coin Market the Bitcoin Videos is because the altcoin market Actually provides a lot of liquidity Into into Bitcoin so by understanding Where the altcoin market liquidity is Likely going or the fact that it's if It's not coming in That could at least show you the most Likely scenario for the direction of of Bitcoin USD so I think we need to be at Least aware that liquidity is at least Leaving the all claim Market there is at Least some idea of that will be less Liquidity to flow into Bitcoin and of Course going on the other thesis that The Bitcoin dominance should go up no Matter the direction of Bitcoin USD part Of the thesis is that it goes up with Respect to bitcoin USD going up part of The thesis of the dominance going up With respect to bitcoin USD going down And remember last cycle the the rally by Bitcoin ultimately topped out around the 51 to 52 dominance level and the move to 60 was on a Bitcoin USD retrace so I am

Still Um sort of looking at this idea of if Bitcoin does go below the 20-week SMA I Would like to see the dominance continue Higher and then I could finally Mark the End of the altcoin Reckoning if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and again check out the sale on into The crypto various premium into the thank you guys for Tuning in and I'll see you next time bye


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