Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the cryptus Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom We're going to be making some Comparisons in this video to Prior Cycles and whatnot I just want to remind People that every cycle will be slightly Different and there's not a single cycle Previously that you can look back to a Formal cycle and say that that's how it Played out exactly again so just Remember there will likely be some Nuances to every single cycle but in This video I do want to compare similar Types of conditions similar outcomes and Really kind of talk about what we've Been talking about for the last several Months and if you've been following this Channel for the last several months one Of the things we we really went over a Lot was the idea of Bitcoin actually Getting a local top about a month before The having and the reason that we Suggested that this was a likely outcome It was actually for several reasons Right it was actually for several Reasons one simple reason and this is Not even the main reason but one simple Reason was just rewinding the clock and

And looking at a similar type of not Really a similar event but an event Where everyone was really hyped up about It was the the merge for ethereum and we Basically saw the exact same thing Happen back then we saw a a top occur One month before the merge and then the Actual La the actual merge it ended up Being a lower high and then we went down To a lower low and then we ended up Putting in a lower high yet again the Month after the merge and we talked About something like something similar Could play out for Bitcoin where you put In a high one month before the having You then put in a lower high actually Going into the having and then one month Following the having you put in another Lower high now back during the having I Don't think you were going to find many People talking about this outcome I I Think a lot of people were mainly Focused on the supply shock and and they Were bull posting at at $70,000 I mean again if you rewind the Clock that is what most people were Saying and so the idea of a summer lull Kind of fell on deaf years for a lot of People and one of the things and I've Seen this play out so many times and It's important to just be careful about It is every single May it seems like There's this idea people say sell and May and go away okay this happens a lot

It happens a lot but what really what Often actually happens is late April you See Bitcoin sell off and then when may Starts because we just had a several Week selloff everyone feels pretty Bearish right because now it's May Everyone knows the Mantra Salin man go Away and then you end up getting a Bounce into may just after a lot of People sort of capitulate at that low And we said back then that the first Test of the of the bull market sport Band the 20we estimate in the 21 kma That we would likely get a bounce Because often times that's exactly what Happens when when Bitcoin gets close to That bull market support band it will Often bounce up right before actually Going below it we've seen it happen many Many times in a lot of these different Scenarios we've seen it happen so much And that's why if you go back to late April what I said back then was you you Have you sort of set your low back over Here in March and then you're going to Sweep that low by late April early May sweep that L and we talked about This and guys guys I have no problem you Know admitting when I'm wrong I I Actually am wrong quite a bit but this Is something that that actually really Did play out in a path that we discussed A lot and one of the things about it is If you overlay the eight-week moving

Average I think this is the let me get The eight week this the three we if you Get the eight-week moving average one of The outcomes that we talked about in Sort of comparison to 2023 and to 2019 Was that you know you lose the 8we ese Here you go down to the bull Mark sport Band it Wicks down to it it then bounces Back above the 8we moving average right We talked about that a lot where you Have this rally back above the 8we SMA And it gets everyone super excited again And then and what ends up happening Right it just ends up resolving back Down below the bull market support B and So that's the issue that I think a lot Of people they fall into this trap they They basically what they what they do is They feel pretty bearish in late April Early May because you just had a sell Off and then they sell right here and Then you get a bounce into May and Everyone on on on Twitter and and YouTube everyone's screaming from the Rooftops that Bitcoin is is breaking out And and it's super super bullish and and It ends up being a lower high that Occurs you know often times in May it Could be early June and then the SU L Actually sets in and I mean if you go Back to the videos from a month or two Ago we we outlined this scenario quite You know in quite a lot of detail and so Far it has played out so basically what

You see is we've had a series of lower Highs and we've also had a series of Lower lows now then it sort of raises The question well what does this compare To the most like what is it most similar To because again it's not going to be an Exact match for Anything but what is it most similar to Now if you look at ethereum if you look At ethereum you'll notice that there was A low set here in June and then you had A high a lower high and then another Lower High right a high a lower high and then Another lower high it then Consolidated Below the 20we estim for a while and Then it got back above it my argument Was always that if eth goes back up it's Only because Bitcoin is lifting it up And if you overlay right if you overlay E Bitcoin onto this chart you'll see What I'm talking about right yes it's True that ethereum has gone up but it's Only because Bitcoin was lifting it up As the E Bitcoin valuation has been Dropping basically for that entire time So to me it it's similar it's like a Similar idea what happened with eth USD But you can see that eth was actually Below its bull market sport band for all This test and then it didn't get back Above it until the following year in 2023 so then what if we were to just Look on the Bitcoin chart is it similar

To 2023 at all right are there any Similarities to 2023 and there are Certainly some I think some of the Similarities are you have sort of a a Local top here in April about the same Time in the year that this top occurred Right in March it's about a month Removed and then so you had an April top And then you had a rally that that Basically topped out in June July here You had a rally that topped out in like Sort of May June so it's kind of shifted By one month but there are some nuances There are some slight differences and we Actually talked a lot about these back In 2023 you actually set a slightly Higher high you see that you set a Slightly higher high and you never Actually set a lower Low which is an important detail right It never actually set a lower low it set A higher low if you were to look at 2019 What you will find is that you ended up Setting a lower low right you eventually Set a lower low which was a which was Sort of a Divergence between 2023 and 2019 because again in 2023 Bitcoin never Set that lower low when it came close to It right when it came close to it it did Not I mean this low right here the week Of June 12th was 24770 and then this low right here was 24915 so technically speaking and being Technically correct is the best way to

Be correct it was a higher low so I Think one of the issues right now for Bitcoin is that it's and again I'm not Saying it can't overcome it it's just That unlike 2019 or sorry unlike 2023 it was a lower high followed by a Lower low but in 2023 it was a higher High followed by a higher low so you see The difference now if you ignore that Part of it we still saw very similar Things play out we had sort of this big Rally where we topped out you know well Above the 8we SMA right here we then Fell below it back to the bull Mark SP Band right there same thing right here We then saw Bitcoin pop back up to the Top of the range and it swept the highs Here it popped back up but it did not Actually go above the prior High then we Saw capitulation below the bull market Support ban back in 2023 it occurred in August for Bitcoin now this time it Occurred in July again it's just being Shifted over by one month again the top The the local top so far this year was In March but in 2023 was in April and so Back in 2023 Bitcoin fell below the Bullmark were in in August this time it This year it occurred in July so you can Sort of see that this whole process is Shifted out by approximately one month And so then it raises the question well What would theoretically come next what

Would theoretically come next well it Depends on if it follows that the path Of 2019 and 2023 because what actually Happened in 2019 and 2023 next was very similar to each other It was the the the step after what Happened next that was actually the Difference and that I think is what is Important to hold in on okay so in 2019 In 2019 after this move down you will See that Bitcoin basically hung out Around the lows for a while it did get a Wick back up near the bull market Support Ban two weeks Later but it wasn't a weekly close up There it was just sort of a wick up but Then two weeks after that Bitcoin swept The low that it had put in on the Initial Capitulation below the 20we moving Average you see that you have an initial Capitulation here and then it swept that Low so this capitulation was late September it swept that low one month Later in late October now the same thing Actually occurred in 2023 and we talked A lot about this as well you first put In your Low which was not a lower low right from Prev previously it was just a slightly Higher low but then you still swept that Low about a month later cuz we dropped Here in mid August we then swept that Low in

Midep right now in both cases after Bitcoin swept the low right in both Cases it then rallied back up to the Bull market support band The 20we SME The 21 we EMA it rallied back up to it The following month right so Capitulation in 2023 was in August you Can see it was back up to it started its Rally back up to the bullmark sport and It started it in September okay in 2019 the capitulation Below the bullmark sport was in September it started the rally back up To the bullmark sport ban in October Right so just one month Later so again I don't know if it's Going to play out the same way but let's Suppose that it does like just let's go Through this exercise where we suppose That it does so far Bitcoin has been Unable to get back up to the 20we moving Average this is what often happens when You go below it you don't just typically Go right back above it there are some Cases but it's not the most common you Spend some time below it kind of like What's been happening Recently okay so if we were to assume it Were to play out like either 2019 or 2023 then the expectation would be about A one month after it drops below here The 20we SMA right about one month later So either so you can see it drop below The ese in sort of mid to late June

Really the first real move below the Bull Mark Sport and its TIY was not Until early July so you might expect if It were to play out like 2019 or 2023 a Sweep of this low sometime in late June Or sorry Late Late July or early August That is what the expectation would be if It were to follow what 2019 and 2023 did Remember these these ideas are not meant For you to like like trade it's not it's Not like you're supposed to sit there And and try to time a a sweep of a prior Low and then if it doesn't happen you Get the pitchforks out right these are Just theoretical ideas as I've said Before I think the best way to navigate The cryptoverse is to DCA into into Bitcoin at risk levels that you are Comfortable with or if you don't even Want to bother with the risk levels you Know you can just DCA out whatever You're comfortable with that's Ultimately likely going to be the best Way to navigate Bitcoin over a longer Period of time I think unfortunately a Lot of people get so focused on what's Going to happen next right rather than Being worried about what happens next Month be worried about what happens over Several years okay but again you know This is a YouTube channel I'm going to Talk about my opinion on bitcoin and and What I think it could do and so that's What I do but I feel like a lot of

People try to use this to then go try to Time the market and and unfortunately That just often does not work out that Well um so that's if it were to play out Like 2019 Andor 2023 but the thing that I I think sort of separates 2019 and 2023 is that in 2019 when Bitcoin rallied back up to the Bull market support B it got Rejected in 2023 when it rallied back up To it it broke through so you can see There are there's a clear difference the The the the structure going into it was The Same right the structure going into it Was the same for the most Part but then the outcome was different But technically speaking while it was Very similar structure going in there Were some slight differences and one of Those slight differences happened to be That when Bitcoin when Bitcoin got that Wick Below about a month later it actually Set a slightly lower low you see that it It set a slightly lower low from where It had gone in June and so you know when I was watching this back in 2023 I was Looking at this Low and it did not actually sweep it Okay so what would be sort of a similar Thing it's it's unfortunately really Difficult to say you could argue that The low from April has already been

Swept but I think if you were to go to Something a little bit more um you know A little bit further back like let's Said the February low it would have to Go all the way back down to about 50k Now remember when Bitcoin had this Correction in 2019 and again I'm not Saying it has to happen but when Bitcoin Had this correction in 2019 you know This first the the first real move back Up actually occurred after a 35% Correction this cycle right there's been A lot less Volatility it was only after about a 23% Correction so you can see there are some Differences I think what will be Interesting is to see you know what Happens what happens with Bitcoin later this month and in early Early August because if it plays out Like either 2019 or 2023 then you would expect some type of Back test of that bull market support Band sometime in like August September Time frame and it doesn't even mean it Can't Wick up to it between now and then I mean in 2023 you know we did get Wicks Back up to it that would have Corresponded to say next week okay so And even in 2019 you can see it we Actually had something very similar Right it wasn't that first week back you Know when we were down here but the Second week you had a wick back up near

The 21 we EMA I mean how we're already Almost there right I mean the 21 we EMA Is at 60 6,739 we're we're already about 59,000 and in the short Term the thing I think that's important To watch and then we did all we did a Video on this previously is that 200 day Moving average because you know that 200 Day SMA also corresponds roughly to sort Of back testing this s this breakdown Area you see that and that also happens Correspond to the 200a the 200 SMA right Now is just North of $59,000 we have Wicked above it already a few times and If you roll back the clock and you look At 2023 you'll find very similar you Know outcomes where you go back up to The 200a and it provides resistance um Uh quite frequently and again look at at 2019 you'll see something almost Identical right you get below that 200 SMA and then you just keep testing it You keep keep testing it you maybe sweep The low you test it again you sweep the Low and then it broke above but then it Ended up being sort of a false breakout And what's different is that it actually Led to yet another lower high right so I Think that's the main difference between 2019 and 2023 is that in 2023 when all Of this happened right it it actually Did not lead you know we actually were Able to get above this and put in a

Higher high so far this year big coin Has been putting in lower highs since March I'm not saying it can't play out In a similar way as last year it's just Something sort of make that comparison To 2019 now why make the comparison to 2019 again if the 2019 comparison freaks You out you know maybe just fast forward To the following year and see what Happened right I mean it wasn't I mean Yes there was a big capitulation Obviously pandemic induced but look Bitcoin's had a lot of those Capitulations throughout the years There's always a reason for it to happen Um but you can see ultimately what came After Was was good it's just that in the short Term the market entered into an Intermediate downtrend if you go back to April I was I sort of tweeting a lot About this I said gold broke out and my My sort of response was well everyone's Expecting you know a left translated Cycle Peak that occurs like you know This summer later this year based on on The sort of the aggressive move the the The the aggressiveness of the of the Move that we were in right but what I Said back then was let's take a look at Gold because a similar thing happened Last cycle too where there was a point In the cycle where it felt like things Were different right it really felt like

Things were different and then it turned Out they actually weren't that different After all and that was when gold broke Out in 2019 okay and now the I think the Main difference between 2019 and 20124 With gold is that well in 2019 it wasn't It wasn't a new all-time high for gold It was just a you know a higher level Than it had been in for a while you can See that gold had previously gone higher But in 2024 it's actually a new all-time High for gold so there are some slight Differences between 2019 and 2024 but You will notice right you will notice That if you look at where gold broke out From in 2019 that is what marked the High for Bitcoin for the entire year it Wasn't just a local top that lasted for A couple of months it's a local top that Lasted for an entire year and the crazy Thing is when you look at 2019 today it Seems so obvious right you look at it's Like oh yeah like it looks so obvious But back then it wasn't so obvious there Was a lot of people kind of on their Toes just waiting for the next rally and You can see how many false breakouts There were right there were so many False breakouts that occurred for Bitcoin during that time and every Single one of them was resolving to a Lower high until the following year Right and so if you were count Them if you would count them you have

Your top there you actually have your Top in June and then July was a lower High technically so then you had these All these were lower highs and it took About six months for Bitcoin to sort of Break that structure right from June Until January the following year so About six to seven months for Bitcoin to Break that lower high structure now that I think is what a soft Landing would Look like where you you have you know You have some lower Highs but ultimately It it finds support sort of somewhere in The middle of the prior uptrend right It Ultimately finds support you could argue That that was a soft landing and it also Corresponded by the way to bitcoin Testing that that 100 we SMA Let me let me uh show That so you can see that is what Happened right you had this pullback to The one week SMA you also simar to the Prior cycle as well right I mean after Bitcoin broke above the 100 week SMA and Then came back and and tested it same Thing happened in 2019 right after it Broke through and then came back and Tested that and it held it as support a Couple times now you could argue that is What a soft Landing would look like why Were we talking about soft landing hard Landing back then because we also had an Inverted yield curve technically it was An inverted yield curve we went back to

The 100 we moving Average you know post you know after the Uninversity year legitimately two years Ago right this October the 10e will have Inverted the 3 Monon by two years as Well and so that is something that is You know those are some similarities Like that there's an inverted yield Curve but it's taking a lot longer right For this whole thing to to play out but That is what ultimately I think what a Soft Landing looked like was sort of Just slowly going back down finding Support you know it was about halfway up The the prior uptrend and then starting To move higher after putting in a higher High or you know after sort of sweeping This high right there you see that was a High a lower high a lower high Etc after About six to seven months Bitcoin then Started to gear back up theoretically it Would have been a soft Landing but then We had a pandemic and and then we ended Up getting the hard Landing which took Bitcoin back near the Lows so this cycle this cycle so far We've seen that lower high Structure right we've seen it and and Last last year we really weren't seeing Lower highs right I mean you know that Was a higher high was not a lower high So technically we are seeing that higher High structure and so or sorry the the Lower high structure and so then the

Question is is well you know does it Play out in a similar fashion and I Think what we're going to find out is We're going to find it out in you know The August to September time frame Because if it were to play out like 2019 The expectation would be you know sort Of sweeping the low of of like 53k um you know in a few weeks rallying Back up to the 20we SMA potentially as It as it curls over around 64 to 6 5K and then seeing if you can take out That high or if it's just 2019 again Where it's a lower high at the bull Market support band right now remember I I I was just mentioning gold and then I Lost my train of thought and I sort of Went off on on some of tangent but Remember what we talked about was that It was been gold broke out last year That ultimately led to this period where Bitcoin entered into sort of an Intermediate Downtrend during a larger market cycle Okay and it was after gold broke out That Bitcoin did that and then when did Bitcoin bottom out it was on the last Rate cut the last rate cut now look at Over Here when we talked about this back in March no one wanted to hear it frankly You know and I was just trying to say Guys like I don't know if it's going to Play out the same way way but if it

Does this is something to consider right Because when gold broke out here about That March time frame and ended up Marking a local top for Bitcoin the same Way it did in 2019 admittedly admittedly again I don't Have any problem admitting when I'm Wrong I think a lot of people I think The crypts would be a better place in Fact if everyone did it more frequently Because I think a lot of people try to Give the illusion that they're always Right about everything which is just Simply not true right it's just simply Not True I think a lot of people try to Brush things under the under the rug we Try to forget about them but I I think As an investor as a as a traiter you you Only actually become better by Acknowledging that you get things wrong Because the market humbles everyone the Market humbles everyone and I I think That and again these are my own lessons Right I'm I'm just speaking from my own Perspective the market does humble Everyone you know over a long enough Period of time and the way you become a Better investor the way you become a Better Trader is to recognize that you Know you might have some ideas and you Might be very convinced about something But it still doesn't mean you're going To be right and you know there have been

Some things I've been right about my Issue is that when I'm wrong I'm really Wrong because you know I I sort of dig My feet in and and I'm not willing to Necessarily pick pivot as soon as I Should but you know this and and the Reason I'm saying all this is because This is what happened last year right What happened last year was I was Looking at this chart and looking at Gold and thinking like oh okay it looks Like Gold's about to break out here just Like it did in 2019 and when it did in 2019 it marked a local top for Bitcoin So that was my thought process in mid 2023 and I I feel like for me it was Just like okay well it's a preh having Just like 2019 was we're looking at high Interest rates you know the FED had just Ended a rate hiking cycle as well back Then and they were in the PS so it Seemed kind of similar but I Think what I should have looked at more Closely was the fact that you know Bitcoin actually put in a higher High and also also furthermore gold Actually never broke out I was Anticipating it to break out like I Thought it was going to break out back Then I really did I I thought that you Know in the summer of 2023 that gold was Going to break out and then you can see It ultimately just got rejected back Down and then it took another year to

Get back up there almost about 10 months Before it to get back up there and then Actually break out so it's sort of like Deja vu right it's like it's it's seeing A lot of the same things but but instead Of 2023 it's it's 2024 but I think the Thing to consider is that you know it's As similar as it is to 2019 and again One of the one of the difficulties about All this stuff when we talked about this 2019 comparison back in March no one Really wanted to believe it right no one Really wanted to believe it because it Was the supply shock it was the having There's no way Bitcoin could possibly go Down after the having and especially After what happened last summer Um and then when you sort of get these Moves right when you get these moves That actually make that 2019 comparison A bit more believable when it happens And then you talk about it well then It's normally time for it to reverse Course and and sort to go back up and Then everyone then's like oh see you Know it's not a low or high it's it's It's you know it's different or Something but again where I am right now Is to say look if it plays out which is A big F right if it plays out like Either 2019 or 2023 then the expectation Would be that you know we kind of just Hang around these levels for a couple of Weeks we maybe sweep this low

From early July sometime in in in Late July or Early August right Late July early August and then at some point in Q3 of This year potentially assuming we don't Get a larger drop right um because if You get a larger drop like this then of Course everything could change you know Where if it really goes well below the Bullmark sport pan then it takes a lot Longer but if it plays out like 2019 2023 then you would expect some form of A back test of the 20we SMA at some Point within the next couple of months And then the question is does it break Through or does it get Rejected now if it gets rejected then You might Argue I mean at that point at that point You know the 2019 comparison has already Played out right I mean like like if if Bitcoin goes back up 20 20we Ese and Then gets rejected and then puts in a Lower low again then the whole 2019 Comparison has played out right you have A high you know lower highs rejection Off the 20we SMA and then a lower low That would be the whole 2019 comparison And you know and I'm not we haven't Gotten to 2020 yet but let me just let's Just look at the 2019 comparison because Again every cycle slightly different Just because last cycle was a hard Landing doesn't mean that this cycle has

To be um if you look at at a sort of a Bar pattern of Bitcoin in 2019 and we're We're not going to include the 2020 sort Of pandemic drop we're just looking at 2019 you can kind of see it right I mean There there are a lot of of similarities In terms of how it how it ultimately Played out where you know you get you Get a high and then you get a lower high And then you capitulate below the Bullmark sport ban and then you sort of You get your rally back up in August and Then you potentially set a lower Low in September Where it then kind of comes back down to Where we were in January right around The lawn to the spotf that would be if It played out like 2019 right so if we Get a rejection off the 20we Ese and Then we do put in a lower low compared To say you know where we are now then Then you you kind of have to be like all Right well the 2019 comparison was valid Because that gets you through 2019 what Occurred after that was the following Year right it was 2020 it was it was it Was the determination of the type of Landing we were even going to get was it A soft Landing was it a hard Landing Right if Bitcoin were to put in a sort Of if if it you know sort of setting These lows right now if it were to put In a lower low later on in September Then that would likely correspond to the

100 we moving average which is exactly Where it went back over here after it Got rejected off of the bull market Support ban and that would correspond to Roughly the yearly open at at maybe Around $40,000 I'm not saying that has to Happen right I'm really not um that's Just if it were to play out like 2019 if It played out like 2023 then you don't Get rejected by the bullmark sport band And then you just get a Q4 rally kind of Like we did last year I think Bitcoin Dominance is going to go up in Q4 I just Don't know if it's going to be on a Bitcoin Rally or a Bitcoin dump Recently the the the main areas where Bitcoin dominance has gone up has been When bitcoin's dumping if you looked in 2023 the main time when Bitcoin Dominance was going up it was on bitcoin Rallies right it's really it's kind of It's kind of shifted a little bit right 2023 it was mainly going up on bitcoin Rallies 2024 Bitcoin Dominus has been Mainly going up on on bitcoin dumps um If you think right before the having in In sort of mid April there was a a a Bitcoin drop and then altcoins really Sold off on their Bitcoin Pairs and just A few weeks ago you know um in sort of Mid June we saw Bitcoin dominance shoot Up sort of Wick higher as Bitcoin was Was selling off so that would be the

2019 comparison and then you just figure Out well is it soft Landing or is it Hard Landing Right and then you say well you know What's going on with the S&P 500 because I me the S&P 500's still going up right So that can't possibly be 2019 Es at all But in fact it is and and in fact in 2019 you know you can see it was it was A very similar type of move where Bitcoin and the cryptoverse was selling Off at the same time that the S&P was Just turning higher in fact Bitcoin went Down bitcoin's local top occurred nine Months before the S&P local top Occurred nine months right Bitcoin Topped in June the S&P didn't top Until what February is it like eight or Nine months later Three quarters Later I mean if that were to play out This time that means the S&P you know Not until Q4 this year now again if you Were to go look at at say some of this Like year-to dat stuff of let's go to The equity verse year-to dat Roi of the S&P 500 in 2024 and you look at it compared To 2023 I mean it looks really similar To each other right I mean you know Maybe maybe the the S&P just kind of Finds a local top in Late July right Around the time of the last pause you Know the F R's constant in Late July

Perhaps that's where the S&P then finds Some weakness for a few months as it Anticipates sort of the next phase of The cycle the rate cut phase of the Cycle so you know these are are are Things that are I think my uh my Screen's freezing up a little bit Hopefully it's working again but um These are things that I think we have to Look at and so if you're wondering like Well what would possibly cause Bitcoin To maybe get rejected off the bull Mark Support band it could just simply be the SNP is starting to show weakness and Then you know if if if if equities are Selling off in say kind of the same time Frame as it did last year that sort of That August September early October time Frame then that could be the reason why You know that first test of the 20we SME Is a rejection for Bitcoin and it going Occur in August and then maybe you get a Retest of the bullmark port band in o October that would correspond to what Happened over here where it then broke Through so imagine that Scenario where you know Bitcoin is is Below its bull Mark I mean where it is Right now just draw a path you know it Spends some time over here and then Rallies back up in August you know Potentially a lower high it then sells Off into September because the equity Market is selling off

And then in October perhaps it gets Through the bull Mark sport ban and and Starts to go back up but then you have To figure Out did the FED engineer a soft Landing If they did then perhaps Bitcoin just Finds support you Know could be as low as 40K could be as low as 50k um again that Would correspond to the 100 week which Is where Bitcoin found support last Cycle after the rate Cuts began and you Can see that 100 we SMA slowly starting to Trend up to that Spot right you can see It and then we figure out if it's a soft Landing or a hard Landing if it's a hard Landing then we go Down if it's a soft Landing then you Know we might slowly go back up and have A normal cycle so it it really depends On on that and you know if you're having A hard time thinking about like how Could Bitcoin possibly you know go back Down Remember first of all first of all the Loudest critics the loudest critics of Any type of view presented here where Are the people bull posting at 70k right So let's just get that behind us right I Mean yes I agree there's likely going to Be a rally back up to 20we estim Sometime in the next few weeks um but The loudest critics of any of this stuff

Are are going to be people that were Were simply just screaming from the Rooftops at 70k that everyone was Getting left behind who wasn't already All in on bitcoin so I mean they have no Choice but to sort of double down on on That view as they put on a lower low my Job here is just to try to provide an Unbias view the market I can get it Wrong of course and I'm I mean I'm Saying like you know you could easily Have a back test of the 2we estimate at The very least in August but the loudest critics will be Those that that never even foresaw a Summer lull occurring in the first place Right so you know they were they would Have told you that Bitcoin wouldn't go Below 60k after the happing and yet here We are you know here we are hanging out Below 60k um so we have to get you know we Have to sort of think about that you Know I mean it's frustrating honestly a Lot of times But I think the thing to think about is When you Look at Peak um you know Peak to Peak Roi of Bitcoin say take Peak Peak to Peak at this time in the last two cycles Bitcoin was still 40 to 50% below it's All-time High and I I've said this for months now Right I said this back at 70k I was like

Look guys 40% below the prior all-time High would still put Bitcoin at 40K which is which is exactly where Which is ex actly where Bitcoin was at This point in the last two cycles wind You know wind measured Peak to Peak in Fact two cycles ago in fact in one of Those Cycles in uh in two cycles ago at This point we actually still 50% down From the all-time high which would Actually correspond closer to 33k actually really close to that top That we had back in June of 2023 so you know again I have no idea if Bitcoin is going to go that low I have No idea but what I I'm saying is that The longer you're in markets the more You should ex you know you should plan For that kind of stuff like don't it's Hope for the best plan for the worst is Is kind of a good way to think about it Hope for the best plan for the worst Right you you have a position right if You have a position in Bitcoin obviously You're rooting for it to go higher I Have Bitcoin it's not like I'm hurting When it goes up it actually it increases My net worth when Bitcoin goes up I Don't short crypto I've never shorted it I just it's more of trying to figure out You know when do you how do you scale in How do you scale out you do it slowly Over long periods of Time but that's the idea you know is is

We we have seen those draw Downs in Prior cycles and and it's not like it's That unheard of now a more this is the Glass half empty approach the glass half Full approach so look at it Roi from the Cycle Bottom I mean it it kind of looks like We're right where we always are at this Time doesn't it But even in that case you could still See Bitcoin go slightly lower closer to 50K kind of out in that August or say Like that September time frame where This sort of this green line is right Here that would ultimately be Bitcoin Going to a slightly lower low so you Know you look at that and you're like Well I mean this is basically playing Out like the prior cycles and last cycle If you looked at just last cycle compar The cycle before that it also got Accelerated and then it as it Anticipated those rate Cuts coming in it Bitcoin sold Off got in line with the prior cycle and We had a hard Landing now you're sort of Seeing the same thing right we got Extended and now it's kind of coming Back in you're getting that mean Reversion back to where it theoretically Already should have been but even if it Were to continue that it could still Mean you know coming into into this Range over here in your September time

Frame especially if the S SMP is finding Some weakness now what could cause the S&P to find weakness could be number of Things right it could be the labor Market showing weakness it could be you Know inflation reaccelerating it could Be um I mean it could be a Black Swan it Could be the 10year yield is soaring Like it did the last two going into the Last two Octobers could be a number of Things that could cause something like That it could just simply be that you Know if you were to look at at the S&p500 And and look at at at prior times like Prior FIB extensions that it's just gone Back to the to the 1.618 which is Actually where it normally goes Approximately before seeing some type of Resistance right last two cycles you can See it rallied to the 1.618 and then Found some resistance even in in the dot Crash it while it did go higher than the 1.618 that's that around that area is is Actually what gave it some trouble for a While before it then was able to extend Higher but a lot of these scenarios you Know it sort of stalls out around the 1.618 um and so that could be the reason Right you know that that Bitcoin still Finds some weakness going into the September time frame potentially after a A retest of the bullmark sport band in In August so you know all the a lot of

This stuff is playing out it's just Playing out over long periods of time Right you know we put the video out I Put the video out and then you know Think about how many weeks have to go by Before there's any validation of of of If these ideas are are even right or not And I mean normally by that time Everyone's forgotten about him anyways Um and again I I could find a thousand Other reasons why this seems like 2019 Uh to Me One Reason is look at others You know everyone like wants me to talk About altcoins more so this is Everything outside of the top 10 look at Others you see how it it had this Massive rally it then had a a higher low And then it had a sort of a blowoff Local top and then it fell back into That low and then it came back into this Region for about half a Year it kind of looks like the same Right you have a a high like a low right Here at the 20 at the bullmark sport Band you get another sort of like a Little local blowoff top right here you Then fall back to the 20we SMA you don't Hold it as support and then you just Fade back down here it looks really Similar to 2019 doesn't it it looks Really really similar I think the reason Why a lot of people have a hard time Making the comparison to 2019 is cuz Well this is the having year but guys I

Mean the people that were saying well This is the having year at can't be 2019 They were saying that at 71k so what's The excuse at 58k or 59k right there are a lot of Similarities I'm not saying it's going To play out the same way it probably Won't but there are similarities and by The way total three if it's going to Play out like 2019 it would still Suggest there's a lot more room for it To drop meaning some of those larger Market cap alts have some more to Shed and and actually we talked about This chart if you look at others divided By uh total three minus others I believe This is what I'm going to look At you can see that it topped at the Same spot it topped in in 2021 this is Lower market caps against higher market Cap Alss other there's Bitcoin same thing right I mean you know It it it drops 60% rallies 60% and then Drop 60% same thing right drop 60 rally 60 drop 60 I did that too quickly and it Shows 83 but you can see it's right Around you Know right around 70% or So but why can't it play out like that In fact you know it was actually after Rate Cuts last cycle that others Bitcoin Finally had the final capitulation and You could argue well why didn't ler

Monetary policy allow those all Bitcoin Pairs to immediately shoot up perhaps it Was because it was only a 25 basis point Rate cut you know I mean it's is that Really enough to move the needle Furthermore what really moved the needle Wasn't even the rate Cuts in themselves Potentially anyways it was that the Federal Reserve started to expand their Balance sheet again because that's Actually where others Bitcoin bottomed Out and you can see that the FED has not Began to expand their balance yet and so Others Bitcoin keeps going Down it's pretty Clear I'm looking at this chart and Saying like it's pretty clear I'm just Like I feel like anyone who look who's Looking at this chart like what the hell Is he talking about But it's sort of clear right clear is Mud if you will sort of clear um and Then the other thing that I I think was Relevant that we talked about back in March that was not a popular view back Then was that we looked at this trend Line and we're like you know like uh you Know is this is this just the same thing Where usct dominance hits this trend Line and then no one wants to believe You could possibly have a larger Correction and I put out some tweets About this and and even a video on it There's a lot of criticism on it but

Then you sort of you you look back and You're like oh well every time usdt Dominance hit this trend line you had Some pretty large Pullbacks the scary thing is that every Time it hit this trend line it at least Bitcoin at least had a 50 % Pullback every single time again it Doesn't have to be the same thing and in 2019 it would it would not have been a 50% pull pullback had it not been for The pandemic but there's always a reason Right there's always there's always Something um but yet again you know you Find yourself with with with you know Usdt dominance hitting this trend Line everyone's saying well this time is Different usct dominance then went up to The 20we SME and then it got rejected in The short term this this little move Right there called caused a lot of People to fomo back in back in May and June early June when when you know when Alts were going up and yet here they are Here they are and and they haven't Really done a thing you know for a while Now right I mean total Three looks it looks really similar Right I mean it really does there are a Lot of similarities when you look at at At 2019 you know there are You have you know you have your initial Move up you get a pullback and you get

Another move Up here another move up and all of that By the way Occurred during the FED pause in rates And then you can see that they sold off In anticipation of rate Cuts same thing selling off in Anticipation of rate Cuts so I don't know I mean you know I Look at this stuff and I'm like gosh it Seems like it's playing out but I also Don't want to be like the bad guy I Don't want to be like saying that they Have you know everything has to go back Down but I I will say this you know it's Just if it plays out like 2019 and 2023 Then you know you're probably going to Hang around these prices for a little While doesn't mean you can't go above 60k you could um and then it would mean Rallying back up to the 20we ASA Sometime the next couple of months and Then my guess is you you could get a re Ection there and that the real test will Actually be in October because the that would be in 2019 when Bitcoin actually got through The 20we EST would have been sort of the The the same comparison but it would Have been October so I think October is Where the real test is for the 20 we ese I think um the first test if it's Playing out like 2019 would just be Rejected um so you know that's where we

Are by the way you know I I know there's A lot of people that that that want me To talk about about know Bitcoin Dominance in every single video and There's a lot of other people that just Want me to shut up about it because they Get it you know but I you know I think a Lot of it was kind of my experience last Cycle of being like you know I could Have just stuck with Bitcoin and and had A you know just kind of enjoyed life not Worried so much about every little Altcoin and and just stuck with Bitcoin Done a lot better than than you know Getting into all these different Altcoins because so many of them are Stressful it's not about I mean it's Just stressful for a lot of you know for A lot of those alts to sort of ride up And and then wonder if you're G to get Rug pulled on them so I was like all Right we'll just stick with Bitcoin you Know I don't I don't think uh I don't Think satoshi's gonna you know rug pull You and and market sell his all his Bitcoin or anything like that but that Was the idea for this cycle right just Stick with Bitcoin during the Bitcoin Dominus rally and you know I don't I I Hate Like I I honestly I hate I hate doing This you know I really do like I I hate The the constant the same repetitive Message for years and years and years

Because I know people are so tired of it They don't want to hear it anymore but I Look at it and I'm like it wasn't wrong Like I can't help that it's taking this Long to play out I can't help that the DJ are as strong as they've been but It's playing out and I I really do think Dominance is going to have one final Rally in Q4 of this year that I think One final rally for this cycle in Q4 This year and that'll mark You know potentially the top of the Bitcoin dominance now I know when I say That everyone's going to be like well The Top's already in for it they could Be right you know but again I I've been Hearing people say that the entire way And the reason for being bullish on Bitcoin dominance to begin with tighter Monetary policy right higher interest Rates and quantitative tightening that Hasn't changed yet and as far as I can Tell it's probably not going to change Until September at the Earliest and even when rates were cut Last cycle all Bitcoin pairs still went Down for two months after That so the the the the reason for being Bullish on dominance in the first place That hasn't even changed and if you're Going to throw the eth Bitcoin stuff at My face and say well you know what about That what about it yeah I get that There's a spot ETF for eth guess what

Bitcoin has one too so I don't even know That a spot ETF for eth is enough to Justify why eth will outperform Bitcoin Especially considering that the reason I Was bearish on E Bitcoin to begin with Was just higher rates Nqt and a lot of the people that are now Saying to me that it's the spot ETF That's going to save the eth Bitcoin Valuation there're the same people who Told me you know it was the transition Of proof of work to proof of stake that Was going to cause eth Bitcoin to go up Or the deflationary mechanism that was Going to cause eth Bitcoin to go up Guess what it bled for years despite all Of that it bled for years and the reason In my Opinion is not because of these Nar is That people want to throw your away Right the same people that that you know Keep showing all this stuff about the German us you know the the German um uh I guess the U not the us but just the German government selling their Bitcoin They were the ones bull posting at the Highs you know so of course they have to Find the narrative to rationalize being Wrong in reality there's often a summer LW with Bitcoin even in the having years Right so even if Bitcoin gets a q four Rally even if it Does look at 2020 it cooled off in the summer look at

2016 you can see Bitcoin in 2016 it it It it there was a cool off period in the Summer 2012 eh not as much right right But it's still there there was this this Phase where where the market just kind Of um faded for a bit those are having Years now look at post having years Where we've we've almost exclusively Seen Bitcoin rallies and post having Years look at 2021 Bitcoin faded into the summer look At 2017 Bitcoin faded into the summer And look at 2013 Bitcoin faded into the Summer so every single prior post having Year even when Bitcoin rallied in Q4 it Still faded in the summer Months so yes of course we're going to Go figure out you know what is the Narrative that explains this bearish Price action by Bitcoin because now it's Below 60k and people couldn't have Possibly imagined that back when back in March when Bitcoin put on the local top And gold was breaking out but now that It is playing out that's the that's what They have to grab on to it's oh well It's because the German government is Selling their Bitcoin that's the reason Why we're not above 70k right now right But in every in every prior cycle we've Almost exclusively seen these summer Lows even in years where Bitcoin went up In the fourth quarter right even in Those years where Bitcoin went up in Q4

We still had a summer low so as far as Eth Bitcoin goes right and I again I Know I haven't done a dedicated video on This recently is because not a damn Thing has changed since I did the last One right not not nothing has Changed when you look at at interest Rates last cycle eth Bitcoin didn't bot Them until after rate Cuts Right last cycle e Bitcoin didn't bottom Until the FED began to expand their Balance Sheet it feels like deja vu for me like It's like it's the same thing over and Over and over again and and basically What it is is this what it is is this It's me saying the same thing about eth Bitcoin over and over hey it's going to Bleed eventually it drops to a new low Everyone's like oh okay you were right Fine it then rallies for a few months Everyone's like oh you're wrong because You didn't pivot your view I'm like why I didn't pivot my view because monetary Policy hasn't changed it's just the same Thing but in fact if you look at this Pattern that e Bitcoin is in right Now it kind of looks similar to what we Just saw and look at this you see this Pattern we've seen this before it Doesn't have to play out the same way But it could and if you were to take a Bar pattern on eth Bitcoin just from this recent move right

Look at that move this was back when you Know everyone was saying that 0047 was The bottom just shift this Over see like it it's it's the same type Of structure where like eth Bitcoin gets A rally Right it gets a rally and you can see it Plays out a lot it gets like an Explosive Rally Right it then cools off and maybe gets Another rally but it doesn't mean it Can't eventually go lower and even in The having year of 2016 for Bitcoin eth Bitcoin started to sell off in September it it it started to sell off Here in September the reason why that is Fascinating is because in 2019 eth Bitcoin sold off in July but eth Bitcoin Sold off in July because the Fed was Cutting Rates now the FED is likely going to Begin cutting rates in September unless They throw us a surprise in July which I Don't think they're going to Let's Suppose they cut rates in September in September of the 2016 Having year Bitcoin for Bitcoin each Bitcoin sold Off when the FED Cut Rate in 2019 eth Bitcoin sold Off so whether you believe this is Monetary policy related like 2019 or Whether you believe it's just the

Four-year cycle related you know like It's just the having year like 2016 in Both cases eth Bitcoin sold off for Three months and it finally set the one True low for the cycle and not all these Fake lows that that you know that people Were touting for for you know for months And months and months and months and Even in 2016 in the summer months there was a Fake out below the Lows just like there Was in 2024 a fake out below the lows about Halfway through the year so I look at This and I say you know to me I can't I Can't I can't change my mind on where I Ultimately think it's going to go I'm Not saying you should be hedged you know I'm not you probably should be hedged in Case that my view is wrong and I've said That I said that I even put out a tweet Out about it back when e Bitcoin was at 0046 or 045 or something I said look Guys I know a lot of you guys are Congratulating me now and saying like You were right but listen the time to Make the conversion from from eth to Bitcoin was two years ago you know back At the merge not now not when it's at 043 because you run the risk of you know Saying oh Ben was right I'm going to Finally convert my my eth to bitcoin Only for it to another you know for it

To be a lower um you know a local low For a while that then you spend the next Several months wishing you hadn't done It I'm not telling you this stuff Because it makes sense to make the trade Now I'm just saying look I told you back Over Here and people don't want to listen and I'm just following through with the Theory I'm not suggesting you even if Even if I'm right and you make the trade Now and even if it goes down here it Doesn't mean it's worth the tax Implications right so you have to be Careful with with these things like I'm Not I could be wrong but the reason for Being bearish on the eth Bitcoin Valuation for the last several years That nothing's changed you know and the Spot ETF while I I mean I look I I I could See the spot ETF leading to to you know Some new money obviously coming into the Ethereum ecosystem I think it's a good Thing I I do I just I don't think Ethereum is going to durably compete Against Bitcoin coin until we're on the Other side of looser monetary policy and We're just simply not there yet that Doesn't mean you can't have a period Where e Bitcoin is doing exactly what It's doing right now where it gives the Potential Illusion that it's it's holding up

Well but we've been hearing that for the Last three years that it's holding up Well so That's where I stand on on this Market Okay you're probably you know the next Area of potential weakness for Bitcoin Could be Sometime Late July early August You'll probably see uh a back test of The bullmark sport band sometime in the Next couple of months if it plays out Like 2023 you would expect it to get Through on the first back test of the 20we ese if it's like 2019 you would Expect it to get rejected on that first Test if it gets rejected on the first Test it's probably because the S&P is Selling off just like it's sold off Around August September time frame of Last year so if it plays out like 2019 The real test to look at will actually Be to see what Bitcoin can do in October Not August but I think we will wrap it Up there thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and again check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse Docomo um and uh I will see you guys Next time give the video a thumbs up That will help help me help the Algorithm remember I don't even have an AdSense on this channel it's just uh It's just dubious speculation that's Often wrong but you know I want to I

Want to at least put out my opinion have It be out there especially because I do Think that there is you know I I think For Me in in 2019 like I I wish there had Been more people that were vocal back Then you know about about Bitcoin Dominance you know and and saying look Enough is enough don't lose all your Money and alts until loose to monetary Policy arrives dominance is going to go Up either way so just stick with Bitcoin Until then and you're probably going to Do a lot better I wish someone had told Me that I decided to tell you that this Cycle and then I just spent the last Three years basically regretting it Because I found out the hard way that Even if dominance goes up no one really Cares and the minute it goes down the Pitch Works come out so like I've Learned a lot this cycle um in terms of You know in terms of like how to Communicate things and and maybe there's Certain things I shouldn't be as vocal On um but those are my thoughts I'm not Going to apologize for them thank you Guys for tuning in I'll see you next Time bye