Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out intoe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse dcom let's go ahead And jump in I wanted to mention that I Am going to be at Bitcoin Nashville uh This July and you know I've been to the Last two conferences the last two of Course were in Miami I will be there in July and so I always Like going and meeting a lot of people And so if you are there I hope to to see You there um it's really the only the Only crypto conference I've even ever Been to uh so I do hope to see you guys Out in Nashville uh later on in in July Anyways Bitcoin coming in at $66,000 a little bit of a downward move Here over the last few days and we Talked a lot about this right the idea That Bitcoin just simply does you know Really similar to what it did um sorry I've had a spider kind of around my desk Recently um but kind of like what it What it did last summer where it it Chops around and it's while it chops Around that that the dominance of Bitcoin just shoots up right because Again the same thing happened a year ago And it's the reason why it happens I

Think is because social interest really Sort of falls off right social interest Really falls off as you get into the Summer months and and while that happens When when sort of the bid for altcoins Starts to disappear a little bit the Altcoins really capitulate against Bitcoin the Bitcoin dominance goes Higher and so when you look at it like This you can see that last summer you Know really starting in April but really Going you know for for a lot of the Summer the bitcoin's ominous was going Up right and you're kind of seeing Something happen over here as well right I mean like bitcoin's just chopping Around but the dominance has been slowly Going higher so what I think is Happening is that Bitcoin is absorbing That liquidity from the rest of the Market now of course you have other Things that are providing liquidity as Well it's not just the altcoin market I I always see a couple people say that And I just want to be clear I am fully Aware in fact if you go over to the Whole spot the total Bitcoin spot ETF Holdings I mean you can see that they Have gone higher it is a little I mean It but look this is something that I Think has gotten a lot of people off Sid They look at these charts and like well If if the spot ETFs are going to new Highs in terms of Holdings why is

Bitcoin not going to all-time highs it You know they say it must be Manipulation right guys it's a market Right I mean you you don't hear people Scream manipulation when the price is Going up you shouldn't scream it when The price is not going up right it is Just a market and if anything these Sorts of charts should suggest to you That maybe the Market is bigger than just simply Looking at at ETF flows Again that's not to say that Bitcoin Can't eventually go higher but the point Is that there is other there are other Sources of liquidity than just people Putting their money into spot ETFs right There's also the people that just buy it Through an exchange um again if you're Putting your money in a spot ETF you're Paying a fee now some people are Probably fine with that there's and look Who am I to say anything about where you Want to custody your Bitcoin my only Point is that Bitcoin it's really interesting like It's a confusing thing for I I think you Know if you really think about it Because for for 10 years it was always Not your keys not your Bitcoin not your Keys not your Bitcoin everyone preaches It and then 2021 happens and you get all These you know you know the Celsius the All these other places that offer

Interest on it and then people are fine Putting their Bitcoin elsewhere and I Mean it's okay like you know it's okay To learn a lesson we all learn lessons I've learned plenty of lessons myself Throughout the years and I get things Wrong absolutely all the time I've made So many mistakes I try to do the best I Can of learning from them but I'm not Perfect but it's like guys in 2021 in 2021 if you hadn't already learned it or In 2022 I should say if you hadn't Already learned it not your keys not Your bit coin you understood what it Meant then and so did everyone else and Then 2024 rolls around and everyone just Can't get enough of the spot ETFs and I Guess I mean it really does go to show That people are not in it for the tech As much as they say because if they were Why would they be Shilling spot ETFs Where you don't even own the keys to Your Bitcoin while simultaneously saying The reason they like Bitcoin is because You you get to you know hold the keys to It right they they're they're Celebrating the the SP ETFs because it Means more money is coming in which is Funny because I've never shied away from Saying the reason you know I'm in the Cryptoverse right I'm not here just to Celebrate the uh the technology you know We're all here to make money let's be

Honest right I mean you know you're not Going around and and and looking at all These meme coins doing everything and Everyone chasing those because they They're in it for the tech no they want To make money they want to get into the Into the meme coin early so they can Sell it To a back holder later on That's what they do so again I I'm not Saying it's a bad thing to cheer on the Spot ETF flows but don't on one hand say Not your keys not your Bitcoin and then On the other hand only ever be Fascinated with with you know the people That are are putting their money into These spot ETFs um and this right here I Mean it it really does go to show and by The way I mean my official position on This is that you should hold the keys to Your Bitcoin you know if if you're Someone that you don't want to be Responsible for it you just know Yourself and you're like I'll lose the Keys I would just rather have someone Else custody it look I'm not going to to You know to go on a a a spel every Single time right my own personal Opinion not your keys not your Bitcoin So I mean if something happens Eventually you knew the risk going in Hopefully nothing does hopefully things Are are better now I think there's a Much higher chance today that there you

Know that it's a little bit better than What we had back in in 2021 but even Then there there's always going to be a Risk and um there was a risk in 2021 and Then people found out the hard way in 2022 what that risk was but when you Look at a chart like this and you see That the spot ETF flows have hit new Highs or the spot the Holdings in the Spot ETFs have hit new highs and then You're like Well why hasn't Bitcoin right you know You're looking at it and like well you Know this ETF flows have what's going on With Bitcoin why has it not perhaps the Reason is just simply because there's More to the market than the ETFs right Bitcoin existed for 13 13 years more Than 13 years we just have and we have Price history going back to 2011 Actually we have price history going Back to 2010 someplace you can find it Going all the way back to 2009 um but I Guess we really had it for about 14 15 Years or so before um before the spot ETFs were even launched and so you know There's more to the crypto verse than The spot ETFs and so yeah I mean It's you're you're you're witnessing More money come In by looking at the spot ETFs and Seeing the Holdings doesn't necessarily always mean That Bitcoin goes immediately to new

Highs and again one of the reasons I Think is because the the altcoin market As I've said a thousand times in in a Thousand different videos essentially is That you know the altcoin market is is Kind of sitting at a a major support Level which as I've said before I think Is going to break to the downside Because I do think at the end of the day Alt Bitcoin pairs are oscillators at Best meaning that altcoins at some point Are going to capitulate down to the Range lows that's my opinion I don't Know exactly when it's going to be but I Do know that there are a lot of Similarities between the summer of 2019 And the summer of 2024 in terms of you Know we're just before the FED Cuts Probably sometime later this year and Social interest saw a spike earlier in The year just like it did in 2019 you know if you were to go over to The social risk just like in 2019 you Saw a spike in social interest and then It came back down same thing over here Right a spike up going into the having Uh and then it came back down and it was Over here where we saw where we saw all Bitcoin pairs bottom out and so I I Think that that could be one of the Reasons why you haven't seen new highs Is because one of the major sources of Liquidity for Bitcoin has been not it's Not the only source but it has been the

Source of altcoin liquidity and and the Altcoin market again hasn't really been Doing that well and and one way to sort Of visualize that is to look at at the Advanced decline Index right the Advanced decline index shows you how It's just been capitulating recently Right there's more a lot more Cryptocurrencies are going down than Going up But guess What Bitcoin has been holding on a lot better Than than most altcoins right and again Just to go through the list ethereum is Obviously doing better than most alts Ada below the 20we ese polka dot below The 20we ese Avalanche below the 20 we Madic below the 20 we xrp below the 20 Week link below it BNB above it right so There's some that are above it saana is Still slight it's below the 20 we above The 21 we EMA Doge slightly below it Litecoin below it uni slightly above it What do you see you see a lot of these Altcoins are below their 20we moving Average now if you go over to Total Three total three is below the 20we SMA But it's still above the 21 we EMA you see now look at bitcoin's Chart this is why we've been preaching Bitcoin dominance for years if Bitcoin Goes up Bitcoin dominance goes up Theoretically if Bitcoin goes down

Bitcoin dominance goes up so long as Bitcoin is above the 20we moving average Once Bitcoin goes below the 20we moving Average it's possible that the Bitcoin Dominance has at least locally topped if Not globally top for the market cycle or Close to it but we haven't seen that yet Right Bitcoin is still sort of sloshing Around between 60 and 70k just like in 2019 where it was just moving around Between you know 9k and 14k and while it did that Bitcoin Dominance went up and altcoins went down In fact altcoins got pinned beneath Their bull market support band before Bitcoin fell below its bullmark for peny Bitcoin fell below its 20we SMA in September but altcoins fell below It in July right after all Bitcoin pairs broke Down in June now again you can compare this to This right Here or maybe you want to compare it to Here it's tough car right and I think Your version of what makes more sense is Going to be dependent on whether you Think Bitcoin valuations are more Important or USD valuations are more Important I prefer to measure the Cryptoverse through its Bitcoin pair Through its satosi valuation because at The end of the day you know if if you're Buying an altcoin and all it's doing is

Bleeding back to the king a lower risk Asset then I don't know what you're Doing you're doing something Wrong and I look at the Chart and I because I care about the Bitcoin valuation I look at it and say Well you know if altcoins are Oscillators at Best which I think they Are we're still off the range low Right there's there's this Gap Here that needs to get filled to the Downside right for altcoins on their Bitcoin Pairs and I don't make any Apologies for it for you know the people That have doubted the Bitcoin dominance You know I mean they've had to eat Humble Pie more than a few times but Guess what I'll let you in a little Secret everyone has right I mean I've Had to eat it a lot too let's be let's Be fair um but the Bitcoin dominance has Just continued to go up higher and Higher and higher And there's so many things we we we went Into this year with saying that these Are the things that are going to happen More than likely but not necessarily in This order and one of those things if You guys remember one of those things Was that um that gold would break out Are you guys remember that and what's Fascinating about this is that gold Broke out in 2019 as well and I know

People are like well this time's Different and I'm like is it I mean Maybe it is I know a lot of people that I respect are calling for higher prices Really really soon and it's possible That that happens I mean in mid 2019 in June in fact Bitcoin went to a new high A new year a new local high it wasn't an All-time high but it did go to a new High for the year and even in last year In in in late June early July we saw Bitcoin go to new yearly highs so I'm Not going to sit here and say it can't Happen but I would simply point out Right just simply point out that gold Broke out right here in 2019 and that's Ultimately where the Bitcoin correction Started From and I know people are saying this Time is different right and I I get it I Mean they could be right I I'm not here To to say that that my view is correct It it very well might not Be but I there's this part of me that's Like you Know it hasn't deviated yet right I mean If you look get gold right if you just Say all right well here's gold when did It break out all right it broke out Right here in late February early March Right that's essentially where Bitcoin Found a local top you know and I mean I Know it's like well is it different is It not I can assure you in 2019 it's not

Like we knew that 14k was the top for The next 12 months or or Longer because it worked its way down so Slowly right when you look at this what Happened Bitcoin put in a High in in June and then a lower high in July and then a lower high in August it was three it was a high and Then two lower highs right June July August and I've pointed this out before As Well here you have the same thing right You have March April May all lower highs I believe Maybe even going into June I don't know where the wick went Exactly and I think it might depend on The exchange you're using this is an Index if you go to say uh you know one Of the exchanges here's coinbase you can See that the high in in March of 2024 Was 73 835 the high in in April was 72777 the high in May was 71980 and the High in June was 71 974 so I'm like there there's part of me That I I feel I'm like well it hasn't Deviated just yet and so I I want to be Open-minded to that comparison even Though it's it's a really difficult Thing to sort of ring the bell on Because I know at any time Bitcoin could Just make a run for a new high and sort Of invalidate that um but at this point

We said In 2019 gold broke out and when it did Bitcoin struggled for a little bit and That's where Bitcoin dominance soared That's where all Bitcoin pairs broke Down Right now remember last cycle though When gold broke out Bitcoin USD Immediate or when gold broke out bit uh All Bitcoin pairs immediately broke down This cycle we didn't see that right we Saw gold break out and we've seen Bitcoin at least hit a local top not to Say that it can't go higher they hit a Local top but we didn't really see alt Bitcoin pairs break Down in the same way because when gold Broke out in June of 2019 that's Precisely when all Bitcoin pairs broke Down this time around we haven't really Seen that we've seen all Bitcoin pairs Hold a lot longer but right now they're Sitting at 39 right so maybe they're in The process of breaking down in fact it Was in 2019 in June when they broke Down when the social Risk was extremely low and no one cared About the markets that was when all Bitcoin pairs finally dropped and the Other thing we said to look at is the Blue Chip dominance the Bitcoin plus eat Dominance to get a weekly close above 73% this year and Trend higher and Potentially go all the way up to 80% now

It's gotten that Weekly close above 73% After taking for what seemed like Forever guess what it's now up here it Broke through we said look for Bitcoin Dominance plus USD dominance to get a Weekly Clos above 61% that hasn't Happened yet right that hasn't happened So some of these things have happened Some of them haven't I said others Bitcoin is likely going to go back down And and take out these lows and you can See that it's really ever since 2024 Began it's been going lower if you were To look at at um total three or sorry no Others divided by total three minus Others so we're basically just looking At at low cap alts versus higher market Cap alts low market cap alts are really Underperforming higher market cap alts Right Now it almost looks like similar to what We saw back over here where it might be About to fall off a cliff where lower Market cap alts your Your Meme coins That everyone's chasing maybe they get a Larger correction this summer especially Relative to the to the larger market cap Alts the other thing that I've mentioned Um many many times was the usdt Dominance right usdt dominance Say go around 4% and we saw that right It went around 4% it went below 4% went Back to the trend line the other thing That I mentioned was Bitcoin dominance

Plus usdt dominance which we I know I Already mentioned earlier but it is at That same level that it was at just be You know in June of 2019 in fact in June Of 2019 the week of say June 17th this Is where Bitcoin dominance plus usdt Dominance was Same time of the year and I'm like well Why what if it just breaks to the upside Just like it did back then which it Looks like is about to Do I know the the the the Bitcoin Dominant stuff the Bitcoin pair stuff It's not what people really want to talk About they want to talk about the meme Coins and the flashy stuff but Bitcoin Dominance has never really stopped going Up ever since this entire thing began Ever since we really started to focus on It more it never really has stopped Going up it's it's reached points many Times where people thought that it had Topped out but then a few months later It just puts in a new High why can't it do the same thing Again all it would really take is all Bitcoin pairs to drop in fact if you Were to look at Bitcoin divided by total Minus E so this is Bitcoin dominance Excluding eth you can't even really see A a point since April where it really Came off of its off of its uptrend the Uh the change in heart by the SEC for Eth occurred in in May right was it in

May about miday or so that's when ethusd Spiked but you can see that even though Eth USG spiked the Bitcoin dominance Excluding eth just kind of kept on going Up in fact it's almost about to hit a New cycle high right now the high Excluding eth is around down 68% it's at 68% right now right it's not that far Off so while Bitcoin dominance is not Back to 57% it's still actually less Than 56% the only reason the only real reason Is because of eth Bitcoin the altcoin market is about to Break support which makes a lot of sense When you think about it because last Cycle altcoins broke support against Bitcoin two weeks before eth Bitcoin Broke support and perhaps it's this spot ETF stuff for eth which is going to be The narrative for maybe why it holds up A little bit longer than the altcoin Market but there's always a reason why There's always a narrative to accompany It and you know what despite the fact That the spot ETF has sort of stolen the Spotlight for a little while for eth Bitcoin how do we know it's not just Doing the same thing it did in 2019 Where it just Prints Lower highs in January February and March just like Here January February and March how do We know it's just not the same damn Thing maybe it's not maybe it is I would

Say you know what I want to be Open-minded the reason why I still think It's going to bleed is because monetary Policy hasn't changed if you were to Look at us interest rates we know last Cycle eth Bitcoin didn't bottom until After the FED cut Rates we know last cycle that eth Bitcoin didn't bottom until after Quantitative tightening ended neither of Which has happened yet so I can't be Compelled to change my view on eth Bitcoin just just because a spot ETF Launched especially or just because it's It's probably going to launch soon Especially since bitcoin's already got One now maybe if Bitcoin didn't have One I don't know right all I'm Saying is that it's so far not Different you've seen gold break out We've seen eth Bitcoin put in lower Highs if eth Bitcoin holds above the Bullmark sport band through July on Weekly closes then maybe I would change My mind about it right but if you've Been following me for the last two years On E Bitcoin the last two and a half Years really if you've been following me On this and you know the reason why I've Been bearish on E Bitcoin in the first Place you'd be very confused if I just Said hey I'm not I I I think it's going To go up just simply because a spot ETF Launched I mean

I Bitcoin has one too right and I I'm Not convinced that that eth is going to Attract more flows than Bitcoin is I Think Bitcoin is probably going to Exceed what the flows look like for eth Especially during a phase where monetary Policy is so restrictive now once it Becomes less restrictive maybe eth would Start to to gain an edge and that's Where eth Bitcoin would likely start to Outperform But perhaps the test the 2019 test is to See does eth Bitcoin go back down to the Range Low by late June early July Because guess what it's not that far Away from it right now it would only Have to drop from the current valuation Right it would only have to Drop another 7% and it's back down to the June 2022 Low So we've seen these things happen right Like we've seen a lot of the things we Saw said coming into this year we've Seen play out right Bitcoin dominance Has put in new highs right and a lot of People thought it had St back at the Spot ETF we said no it'll likely get Another rally into the having and it did Then after the having I said right that It's still likely going to keep going Up because of monetary Policy and it looks like it is and I

Know a few weeks ago everyone was Dunking on it because of the spot ETF And they're like well look now look at It yeah look at it it's still held Support at the bullmark sport pen the Same level that it's been holding Support out more or less with a couple Of fake outs since 2022 the end of 2022 in fact if you were to look again At monthly high and AI candles you can't Find a single red monthly high and AI Candle for Bitcoin dominance since November of 2022 and there have been people that Have faded this entire move by Bitcoin Dominance because they failed to account For the effects of monetary policy on The cryptoverse So I look at Bitcoin USD right now and You know I think there's a decent chance It could do it could fade back into the Bullmark sport and you can see that it Did the same thing last year Right I think it could go back to that 20we SMA and if it falls below the 20we SMA it might be after Bitcoin dominance Theoretically tops right that's what Happened in 2019 Bitcoin dominance Topped then Bitcoin fell below the 20we Moving average but not until Bitcoin Dominants topped it makes sense when you Think about it why because if Bitcoin Dominance tops it's usually right around

The time of a Fed pivot but if the FED Pivots then people start to to take more Risk with lower market cap things Therefore people divert their funds away From just the Blue Chips to higher risk Stuff because those funds get diverted The lower market cap stuff while it Bottoms against Bitcoin it goes down Comminate with Bitcoin USD and it makes sense that Bitcoin USD Stays Stronger than alts for a longer period Of time because you know there's Probably a lot of people just converting Their alts to bitcoin right whether it's Their eth their Ada their dot their Avalanche the Matic their xrp their link Whatever there's a lot of people that Are probably just converting their alts To bitcoin there's not a lot of people That are all converting their alts to Some other coin right like you know Maybe there's someone out there that's Converting their you know their avax to Madic or their their xrp to link but There's not going to be you know you're Not going to have that same funnel from Every single coin where there's people From every single coin likely taking Profits back to Bitcoin that's why Bitcoin held up Longer in 2019 than the altcoin market Because you can see that Bitcoin didn't Fall below the 20we SMA until September

But in 2019 allcoins fell below it in July right and again maybe you think We're here and I can I could be on board With that view but the reason why I keep Looking at this one is because of all Bitcoin pairs if if if I weren't cursed With thinking of the market in terms of Its Bitcoin valuation I wouldn't be Looking at this Chart but when I look at this chart I Have to go back to the prior time where It looked like this and the only time it Ever looked like this was in June of 2019 when it had been holding support For almost a year at around the same Valuation that it is today and just Before the FED cut rates so how can I Turn the Blind Eye to it I can't I can't So I think that if Bitcoin goes up and It puts in a new high Bitcoin dominance Goes up because every time it's rally That's what Bitcoin dominance has done I Also think that if Bitcoin drops back Down to the 20we SMA Bitcoin dominance Goes up because every time it gets a Correction every time Bitcoin coughs the Altcoin market catches Pneumonia that's why you're seeing Bitcoin right now still several Percentage points above the 20we SMA but Guess what altcoins are already below Their 20we moving average at the time of This video they're weaker right and if Bitcoin drops back to the bullmark SP

Bend alts are probably below It right so Bitcoin right now though Isn't even at its 20we moving average in Fact it's trying to hold the 8we moving Average as support the 8we moving Average is around 65.9k so we just saw Bitcoin Wick below The 8 we but now it's right back above It So are we kind of doing this right is That where we are similar type of time During the year bitcoin's just slowly Going down but it's not really dropping A Lot and you can see that over here Bitcoin had some spikes and one of those Spikes took out all these prior highs And that Spike didn't occur till July 10th you're getting some spikes over Here as well but there so far they've Just been lower highs they haven't Actually put in a new high but even if They did put in a new High I mean you Know unless it's unless it actually Ries All the way up to like you know much Higher prices who cares right it's not It's still just a cool off phase um so Just keep an eye on that you know keep An eye on that and and see is it doing Something very similar or is it is it Deviating and so far it just looks like A really similar type of move keeping on That 8we ese if it falls below the 8we SMA remember what normally happens after

Bitcoin Falls below the 8we SMA it goes To the bullmark spand or it gets pretty Close to it so that's what you should Look for if there's a weekly close below $66,000 so that's where we stand with You know with these charts of course we Could go look at at a few other things Right you could go look at at cycle Roi As measured from the peak and if you Measure it from Peak to Peak you can see That we're still pretty far ahead of Where we were the last two cycles you Could see a drop and we'd still be in Line with where we were the last two Cycles if you measure it from April you Could see we're a lot further along and Maybe it matches up a little bit better I tend to want to measure it from the Actual all-time high then sort of the Fake all-time high because price action Is King whatever the indicator says all Models are wrong some are useful but There it is if you measure it from the Low obviously it looks a bit Different um but even then it's still Ahead at the last two cycles so I mean Again like you can look at the market a Ton of different ways my point is that Last cycle in terms of monetary policy What we saw happen is we saw Bitcoin go sideways for a few months in The summer we saw altcoins bleed back to It exactly how they're doing now we saw Bitcoin dominance top and then right

After it topped Bitcoin then fell below The 20we SMA but it was a long process It was a long process and I don't know How long even if the even if I'm right About the process I don't know exactly How long it would take last last year After Bitcoin had this surge in mid June We didn't get the drop below the 20 week SMA until two months later you know so Who knows right who knows how long the Process could take but it is something To to at least think about that's my Dubious speculation on bitcoin I don't Want to go on too much longer um you Know we'll see how these things play out In the summer I would mostly just keep An eye on your Bitcoin dominance as I've Said before you know I think Bitcoin is Going to offer the the better risk Adjusted returns it doesn't mean Bitcoin Can't go down it's just that if it does Go down it's probably going to hold up Better than the altcoin market at least Until Bitcoin dominance tops and I don't Think Bitcoin dominance is topping until It hits 60% at least my that's my base Case is 60% Bitcoin dominance for a Theoretical top but I also would would Sort of defer to changes in monetary Policy to really cement that anyways if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out into the Crypts premium at intothe crypt.of