Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out into the cryptoverse premium At inthe cryptoverse decom I had my Dubious speculation t-shirt on and I Thought why not do a dubious speculation Video so we're going to talk about some Of the shorter term Trends here um that Of course really unpredictable but I do At least want to weigh in on what it Looks like is going on if you guys Remember back to last year there were Sort of like three distinct moves in the First half of the year or so uh you had Sort of this first one followed by a Cool off phase and then the second one And then the third one and remember the Third one just sort of swept the high Right it sort of went back up it swept The high but it did not lead to much Higher high that didn't come of course Until later in the year so I wanted to Talk a little bit about that if you look At this move over here it actually does Still look somewhat familiar uh so if You want to compare say this first move With this move and then you can see that After this move was Done it had a big pullback below the 50-day moving average right here and

Right here before fairly quickly getting Right back above above it and going on Yet another run in fact if you were to Take the price appreciation from this First move you can see it was about 60% And then the second move was also about A 60% rally and then if you take it from Here to this high was about a 90% move And then here to here was also about a 90 to 100% move so you can see there are Actually a lot of similarities between Sort of this to here and then this move To the secondary move and what's even More interesting is if you look at the First move that occurred after it went Below the 50-day it had no problem Getting back above it back over here in Early 2023 just like this move over here Back in early 20124 really had no Problem getting back above the 50-day SMA but you will notice that the second Move did have trouble right you can see That it actually got rejected off of the 50-day moving average back in May of 2023 right a pretty clear rejection so We were holding the 50-day SMA for a While we fell below it we trended below It for a bit we had a rally up to the 50-day got rejected and came all the way Back down and then it wasn't until June Where Bitcoin then had another move back Up where it ultimately swept the prior Highs but did not immediately go on to Put in much higher highs that would have

To wait until the fourth quarter of the Year what's interesting about you know The Bitcoin having is that a lot of People always think that once the having Arrives the price immediately goes up When in reality what you'll often find Is that the price to bitcoin doesn't Really do a whole lot for about half a Year after the having if you think back To the last cycle the having was in May And then Bitcoin didn't really start to Get in gear until Q4 the cycle before That the having was in Ju lie and Actually just after the having Bitcoin Had I I believe it was about a 20% Correction so we have to remind Ourselves that you know those things can Certainly occur and if you look at the Current move right if you if you sort of Compare this second move with this one You can see that it also just came up to That 50-day SMA and is at least getting Rejected right now now what's Interesting about this if you look Really closely at this second move it Sort it set a low and then it it put in Sort of a local double bottom went back Up to that 50-day and then it took out That low right so a low double bottom up To the 50-day and then it went down and Took out that low and before before Getting another bounce basically back up Near that 50-day SMA and if you look Over here you'll find something very

Very similar you know you set a low here On April 17th Retested that low on April 19th and then Went right up to that 50-day SMA where It is currently struggling to to get Through now if it were to follow what Happened basically a year ago it would Still mean Bitcoin sort of just not Doing anything for a while and it very Well could actually take out this low Right here in fact if you look at the First move you can see that ultimately All of those lows that were taken out You can see a lot of lows were set Eventually they were all taken out and Then after that low was taken out Bitcoin got another move to the upside And here right in the second move back Over here you can see that after these Lows were taken out it then got another Move back up to the upside but that Third wave was sort of a failed rally Because it only swept the high rather Than durably go on to put in new highs We had to wait another several months For that to occur so I would keep an eye On that and the reason is because this Low here is just above the prior low From way back over in in early March Okay and that level is essentially 59k Right just 59,0 se3 is ultimately where That Wick was so if Bitcoin does go Below those levels here as we get into The sort of the May time frame late

April May time frame that is where you Would Expect the Bulls to at least try to hold That as support they were able or at Least run it back up over here they were Able to right over here they were able To run it back up and put on new highs Uh back over here they were able to run It up and put a new highs and even over Here right after this this low was taken Out ran it back up put in new highs so Then the question is is will that happen Again will you get a third wave back up To the highs or even higher levels or Will it do something different and of Course at this point I mean it it's Obviously impossible to say I don't have The answer to that question my strategy For the last two and a half years has Just been to have a Bitcoin heavy crypto Portfolio I haven't really dabbled much In the altcoin market uh because of my Views on on sort of the the share I I Thought Bitcoin dominance was going to Go up so I just mostly just stuck with Bitcoin um but I do think that if you do Get something like this over here that Is is ultimately how you could see Altcoins finally capitulate on their Bitcoin pairs because when stuff like This happens and the market gets really Boring in the summer that's what you'll Often find happening to the to the Altcoin market especially if Bitcoin

Were to go below its bull Mark support Bin so in this case we're still well Above the bull market support bin in Fact it's all the way up at or all the Way down at 53.7k to 55.1 I mean we're we're pretty Far away from it and so that I think is What you're going to want to look at Here over the next few weeks because I Think that this summer Bitcoin will Interact with the bull market support B That's my best guess it's been a long Time since we tested it and you know if The S&P can test it and if the NASDAQ Can test it I don't see why Bitcoin Can't um so I I would expect it to test It at some point and I expect sort of This interaction with the 8we SMA to be Somewhat telling as to sort of the the Strength of Bitcoin you can see back Over here Bitcoin had no problem getting Back above the 8we SMA but in the second Move it kept holding it as resistance Until those final lows you know were Were sort of swept right here you can See it's also having a hard time Flipping above the 8-week moving average Um and also note though that these lows Have not been taken out and so that that Of course could be uh the reason I will Say you know there there are certainly a Lot of a lot of cases to be made either Way uh my guess is that you're going to Just see the market get somewhat boring

Over the next couple of months if you Look at the ROI of Bitcoin from Peak to Peak you'll notice that we're actually Well ahead of where we were at this Point in the last two cycles at this Point in the cycle right now Bitcoin is Essentially back up to its prior All-time high but in the last two cycles At this point Bitcoin was still 50 to 60% down from its all-time high which is Remarkable to think about right I mean You know 50% down from bitcoin's prior All-time high way back over here back in In 2021 right I mean 50% below below um 70k that's 35k right and 60% below it Would obviously be an even bigger drop Right that would actually put it all the Way down at less than 30k so that just Goes to show you how far ahead we are in This cycle compared to the last Cycles When you measure the ROI or return on Investment from the Peak so that's sort of an eye openening Chart if you you haven't seen it before You might say well what's going on the Having's here why isn't Bitcoin going up Could be for two reasons it could be Well first of all a lot of times these Major events right afterwards there's Kind of a lull right even after the Spy ETF there was a several week period Where the market cooled off and now You're seeing something similar very Similar happen after the Havoc now here

As measured from the peak we are well Above where we were and in fact in the Last couple of Cycles it took until day 1100 last cycle and really 1200 day 1200 In the cycle before that to really go Above where Bitcoin currently is and We've achieved this as early as day 840 Or so so you know currently we're on day About 900 so just looking at the last Two cycles you can see it took about two To 300 more days before Bitcoin even Continued to climb from this point which Would essentially take you out you know 6 to n months You know getting you into at least Q4 if Not q1 of the post having year and so That is something that I I think is Really important to note is that even if That were to happen it would still be in Line with prior Cycles if you measure it From the low you can see that Bitcoin as Compared to last cycle is also ahead of Where it was um last cycle at this point Bitcoin was up less than about three X From the low which this cycle would put Bitcoin at about 45k obviously right now Bitcoin is ahead of that um and so in This case you can see that Bitcoin Didn't really durably take out the Current levels that bitcoin's Roi is at As measured from the lows in 2022 until Day 700 from the lows and we're Currently on day about 530 which again Is about another 6 months or so and if

You compare it to the cycle before that You can see something very similar right Bitcoin did did not really go above in Any durable way the current levels until About 200 days from now approximately Six months from now which would Essentially put you in the fourth Quarter of the year um and if you Measure it from the peak as we showed Earlier it could actually even put you Out in 2025 so I think that like looking At the charts like this can be helpful In terms of understanding you know why Is the market slowing down why is it not Really going up and so you could get an Example where the market just Trends Sideways for a long time maybe even Slightly down until it gets back in line With the prior cycles and then sometime Later on gets another move there's Obviously a lot of discussions about a Left translated Peak and all that sort Of stuff and I've I've obviously sort of Paid that theory some respect um because You know there's certainly if you Measure it from the April 2021 Peak you Could obviously make a case for for a Left translated Peak however you know I I I mean it certainly seems to me like Every cycle everyone tries to figure out A reason why it's going to be different Right and then every cycle it just ends Up not being different and and we end up You know seeing something different

Happen later on um but there's always a Curveball thrown last cycle it was the 2019 Peak was the curveball that was Thrown where Bitcoin essentially rallied Up for 4X in about half a year and it Led to us getting close to all-time Highs way before people thought we were Going to now this cycle we actually put In new highs which funny enough is a Little bit over a 4X from the bottom So you know I think that and actually Really closer to a 5x from the bottom so I think that there certainly is a case To be made that Bitcoin could get boring for a little Bit right in this second move over here Bitcoin essentially just slowly trended Down for several months before getting Another move up and then it still Trended back down through the end of the Third quarter so there is a chance that Something like that could happen again Now I also just want to remind people That after the 2019 Peak which occurred Just before rate Cuts came into play Bitcoin actually did see a larger draw Down than just sort of going sideways Right you could see over here it was Just sort of going sideways for a bit But actually after this point Bitcoin Dropped about 50% now there obviously it Dropped more in the pandemic but even Without the pandemic you did see a 50% Drop by Bitcoin back to its 100 we

Moving average right it you can see that Bitcoin rallied up about 100% more than 100% % above its 100 we ese from when it Crossed then it came back down to its 100 we Ese and so you know the 100 we SME you can see again bitcoin's rallied On up well above it and then now the 100 We SME just happens to be at where Bitcoin broke out of this resist or this Resistance level right the resistance Level at 31k is actually precisely where the 100 We ese is right now now of course There's no guarantee that we go down Those levels obviously a lot of people Are talking about all the spot ETF stuff And and why this time is different but Remember you know there are always Chances that that kind of stuff can Occur and so rather than just feed you Blind hopium and say that the market has To just go up only um I I just want to Remind people that that kind of stuff Can happen and I also you know warned People about this last year uh that you Could see something like that I wasn't Really expecting I wasn't expecting it At all let's be clear I was sort of Expecting Bitcoin wouldn't go higher Than 35k in 2023 um but I was proven Wrong right and I don't really have any Problem um kind of owning up to those Errors those mistakes that's the only Way we grow as investors um we stayed

Below 35k for most of the year but then Once once we got into November really The last couple of months of the year we Took out that 35k level so again you Know I'm always going to be here to sort Of make people realize there is is Downside risk even though it's a lot of Times it doesn't even materialize right I mean you could see last time it didn't Really materialize I talked about Getting a drop in Q3 of the prehab year Which we got but we didn't really see it Go much lower and it even didn't even I Mean it didn't even take out the low From May of 2023 so I would say you know There is certainly a chance that Bitcoin Has kind of printed what some might call A midcycle Top um kind of like this one in 2019 That is certainly there's a case to be Made for that um and there's obviously a Case to be made that Bitcoin could Ultimately go higher and you know some Of those things that you could look at Right if you were to look at at sort of More some of the more fluffy indicators Like the RSI on a monthly time frame it Would certainly suggest that Bitcoin Could ultimately give more than what It's given considering that it's nowhere Near the peak on the monthly time frame However there's another way to look at This twoo and that's to look at it on The two we time frame and if you look at

It on the twoe time frame what you'll See is that the level that Bitcoin just Hit on the two-e RSI has essentially Always corresponded to at least a peak Right to to at least one a peak right I Mean in 2013 we had a double Peak cycle Where the second Peak was a higher high But the first time we sort of tagged This trend line it marked a local top For Vi coin for a while and in 2017 it Marked a uh the market cycle top in 2011 It marked the sort of the cycle top I Mean this the whole cycle top stuff is Kind of fluffy because what what Constitute a cycle I mean if it's Putting in a high in 2011 and then it's Putting in a higher high you know less Than two years later I mean do you call That the market cycle top or you just Call it an a midcycle top there's a case To be made that the 2019 top was the Midcycle top before the actual top in The post having year Year and that this 2011 Peak was the midcycle top before The 2013 top in the post having year Right I think we could get on board with That I mean I think that could Theoretically make sense right you have Sort of these midcycle tops sometimes That occur I'll be honest with you guys I mean like I have a hard time so a lot Of times going with this whole Market Cycle stuff in the first place because I Think to some degree we're trying to

Like rationalize something uh or trying To you know say that it has to obey These specific rules with that said who Can deny the fact that the last three Cycles Bitcoin put in its top in Q4 of The postav year so yes we have a lot of People calling for left translated Peaks And whatnot because of of where Bitcoin Is but what if it's not you know what if It's not a left translated Peak the only Way I think you get a left translated Peak is if you really see Bitcoin Accelerate into the Summer or especially in a sort of that Q3 Q4 time frame I mean if you see that Then fine maybe you're right but if you Look at the 2019 top right if you look At the 2019 top which theoretically was Sort of a midcycle top it cooled off for Nine months before picking back up again And going on to to much higher highs it Cooled off for 9 months and so what if Bitcoin were just cool off not for 3 Months or 6 months but for 9 months then That means it maybe cools off for the Rest of the year and so there is a Chance that something like that could Happen if you look at 2011 after sort of What you might call a midcycle top it Was the preh having year right just like The 2019 top was the prehab year but During that top Bitcoin cooled off for I Mean it really didn't get back to those Highs this was June 2011 it didn't get

Back up to those highs until February of 2013 So you're talking about 18 months right That's a long time in 2019 when the Midcycle top was in after it was in June 2019 we didn't really take that out Until October 2020 right so you're Talking more than a Year so when you look at it on the two We RSI time frame it would suggest that Like it could be a local top for a while It doesn't have to be and just like we Saw last year maybe you get a scenario In June where you even sweep the high But that's some evidence right there's Some evidence that says hey you know the Market has been pretty hot for a while Now that there's not really in any major Events that are about to occur Theoretically then what happens if the Market does just cool off for six to n Months um and that's not the only thing That you could look at I mean there's Certainly other things you could look at As well you could go take a look at Something like usdt dominance this is Something that I've I've mentioned quite A bit as something to keep an eye on we Did whole videos on the usdt dominance About why you know it it would be Important to keep a keep an eye on this Because every time that it's tagged this Trend line Bitcoin I mean look guys I Don't like saying it because I don't

Want to be the bad guy but I mean every Time it tagged this trend line Bitcoin Had a 50% correction right I mean we had A 50% correction in December 2017 November 2018 we had it was right before A 50% correction June 2019 June 2019 was That midcycle top right February 2020 You guys know what happened after that It was a pandemic but I'm not saying it Was predicting that March 2021 was just Before the summer lull of the post Having year November 2021 was just Before the bare market and you find Yourself on that trend line once again And you of course once again everyone Says this time is different but what if It's not right like what if it's not Different and and it just kind of plays Out the same way that it did last cycle I think one of the things that has Really um you know been a curveball for This cycle as compared to last cycle is That rate cuts are coming in a lot later And so you know what you saw happen last Cycle in the prehab year where you get This sort of this major rally to a local Top where usdt dominance hits that trend Line and Bitcoin dominance tops a couple Months later what happens if you just Get that now where Bitcoin USD puts in a Local top in March and then Bitcoin Dominance potentially tops out this Summer I can certainly see a case for That and the reason why it's important

To be aware of that idea is because if Bitcoin does Get a larger drop and it's not just sort Of a slow you know little bleed like This one if it's more than that then it Could lead to a a Fed pivot if it's just This then you're probably not going to Get a Fed pivot because it probably Means inflation is still above Expectations and and that the FED has to Stay higher for longer but if you get a Drop similar to this one if you get a Drop like that then it might represent That the consumer is starting to fall Al Somewhat and then the FED might actually Start to cut now the reason why monetary Policy is important is because you Probably heard me talk about Bitcoin Dominance a lot over the last few years If you get a larger drop by the Blue Chips of each asset class then that can Lead to a change in monetary policy and So after that occurs then the Bitcoin Dominance would likely start to go down At that point and then the altcoins Start to durably outperform right then The alt season that people keep wanting Actually arrives where altcoins start to Durably outperform bitcoin but I don't Think you get to that phase without a Deeper correction by Bitcoin so if you Just get a normal 20% correction right If you just get a normal 20% correction All these moves that Bitcoin has seen

Have just been about 20 to 23 22% Corrections even even the one that we're Currently in is nothing more at this Point then about a 19 20% drop if that's All you get and then we run it up again In the summer or later later on you're Still likely just going to see Bitcoin Dominance go up and altcoins go down Against Bitcoin but if you see a 2019 Style top that ends up playing out like This and then it gets a drop say back Down near the 100 we SMA then that would actually let Represent rate Cuts arriving okay and so That's why I I draw the comparison to 2019 a lot is because it seems like There's this phase the cycle that we Have to go through at some point where The FED pivots um now the competing view Is the left translated cycle view which Would speculate that that the FED pivot Will occur after a left translated Peak Arrives and that theory has Merit right I mean like I don't think it makes sense To just sit here and say that that can't Happen it could happen and if you get a Major run in Q4 kind of like what you Saw in 2013 remember in 2013 you had a Top in April a summer lull and then Another run in Q4 if you get something Like that then it probably is a left Translated top honestly but if you get Something like 2019 where like you know It it bleeds for a while and then it

Starts to get a run and then there's Something that causes it to go down that That is where you get a a major fed Pivot and then from there altcoins would Start to durably outperform bitcoin but It it all depends on how it plays out Right it depends on if this is just a Slope lead kind of like over here where You also you know face rejection at the 8we SMA uh for a couple of months right If it's just something like this and Then it gets to pop up Bitcoin dominance Is probably just going to keep on going Up if you see it do something like this So like you you know if you see it lead And then pop then Bitcoin dominance is Probably just going to keep going up for A lot longer and then we just kick the Can down the road if you see something Like this where it comes down here and Then Drops like 2019 as those rate Cuts Arrived right as those rate Cuts arrived Then here that drop would probably Mark The top on bitcoin dominance right that Is what would ultimately Mark the top And that is actually precisely where Bitcoin fell below its bull mark Mark Support band in 2019 if you overlay the Dominance to bitcoin that's actually Right right around the time where Bitcoin dominance topped Bitcoin Dominance topped just before it and it Topped actually on that final rally to

The 8-week SMA right you see that you See how Bitcoin USD got below the 8we SME and it kept wicking back up to it The week where it closed at the 8we SME Is where Bitcoin dominance topped so all Bitcoin pairs bottomed but alt USD pairs Went down as Bitcoin went down right and Then and then the altcoin market then Would theoretically go down until Bitcoin finds a low so the altcoins Bottom against Bitcoin but they don't Bottom against the US dollar until Bitcoin finds whatever low it's going to You know after after after a Fed pivots So or after the FED pivots so that's What I would be looking at uh in the Next couple of weeks and I think the Signs to look for as to whether you get Another pop up or if it does a 20 if it Pulls a 2019 and everyone's waiting for That pop up instead it just uh it it Drops by the same amount that people Think it's going to go up if you get Something like this the the thing to Look for that might give you insight to As to whether that's going to happen are Three things two of which have already Theoretically happened right the first Of which was the breakout of gold right I mean these are things we've talked About forever um so I'm not going to Just pretend like I haven't talked about Them I said before that once gold breaks Out like it did in 2019 that could Mark

A midcycle top um and at least so far You can see that the breakout of gold in 2019 that marks the top for Bitcoin Locally Bitcoin did go higher obviously A year later or so but even here gold You can see broke out right when Bitcoin USD found that local top in March um so That's one thing so if gold continues to Do well that might be sort of the the Implication of that could be that that Bitcoin uh is actually going to to to Fall after this consolidation below the 8we SMA rather than get another pop up Like last year the other thing that has Already happened is the D the the eth Bitcoin breakdown so if you look at the Breakdown of eth Bitcoin you can see That last cycle once it started to break Down here that marked the top by Bitcoin USD before a larger correction and You're kind of looking at something Similar right here where eth Bitcoin is Starting to break down but the one thing That hasn't happened yet which might be Something that the Bulls could Theoretically attempt to hold on to Would be the fact that all Bitcoin PIR s Have not actually broken down right if You look at all Bitcoin pairs you can See that they haven't broken down like They did over here so if you overlay Bitcoin USD onto this Chart you can see here that all Bitcoin Pairs when they broke down that marked

The local top for Bitcoin right and that Bitcoin still got some pretty nice Rallies over here as altcoins blood Against Bitcoin that hasn't happened yet Right I mean altcoins did get a wick Below it but no durable weekly closes Below it so again it's not crystal clear As to Which Way bitcoin's ultimately Going to break my guess my best guess as To what happens is that it's going to Basically bounce around in this range With you know below the 8we SMA with Some occasional moves above it right I Mean it's not like it can't get above it For a few days here and there but I Would say it's probably going to spend a Lot of time over the next few weeks Between the 8we SMA and the bull Market Support band just like it did last year Around this time and in 2019 right as gold broke out and E Bitcoin broke down that is what I think Is going to happen over the next few Weeks and whether Bitcoin gets another Run in the summer kind of like it did Last June will be dependent on if all Bitcoin pairs break down between now and Then if all Bitcoin pairs break down and You get weekly closes by this metric at 39 or below it would be more it would be Implying that Bitcoin could see a move To the downside if it stays above that Level then it might imply there's enough Liquidity for Bitcoin to run it back up

Just like it did in the summer of 2023 so I would just keep an eye on that And and the reason why I I sort of Continue to preach this Bitcoin dominant Stuff and the reason why I talk about All Bitcoin pairs is because when you See moves like this if this if something Like this were to happen where after the Consolidation between the 20we SME and The 8we SME if Bitcoin then got like a 20% drop that drop could then lead to Some altcoins in fact putting in much Lower prices right because a lot of Altcoins are not even that far off of Their lows to begin with and they're Just basically going to be dependent on What Bitcoin does right so that's why I Think Bitcoin heavy has been the way to Go and you'll also notice that while Bitcoin is way up here you know about You know it would have to drop 14% to Get to the to the 20we ASA if you look At a lot of altcoins like Avalanche it's Already below the 20we SMA polka dot Below the 20we SMA Litecoin slightly above it but not Nearly as much as Bitcoin is cardano way You know well below the 20we ese chain Link below the 20we moving average right So a lot of these ethereum is not but It's also close right it's only about 6% Away and actually after eth Bitcoin Broke down last cycle that's what Ultimately LED eth USD to follow back

Through in this wedge right eth Bitcoin Broke down there eth USD fell back Through the wedge that it broke out from Eth Bitcoin broke down here you can see The eth USD is starting to fade so that Is what I would look for I would look For Bitcoin to spend a little bit longer You know between the 8we SME and the Bull market support band rallies back up Up to the 8we SMA should theoretically Start to make the Bitcoin dominance go Higher now I know what you're thinking You're probably like well Ben dominance Is down over the last couple of weeks And you're right but the thing to look At is that last cycle when the Bitcoin Dominance excluding stable coins you We'll go look at this really quick and Then I got to run um when you look at Dominance excluding Stables last cycle It it swept this High had a pullback and Then it went on to put in its top the Bitcoin dominance did and you're looking At something very similar right it just Swept this High it had a pullback but I Think it's about to start running back Up in May and June and if it does then It makes the comparison to 2019 more Believable right if it doesn't do that Then it might make the comparison to Last year at this time more believable So those are things that I would look at Um here over the next couple of months Just some dubious speculation for you

Again I could be completely wrong um and And remember in the 2019 Top here the midcycle top Bitcoin Actually rallied above the 8we SMA and In 2021 it rallied above the 8we SMA Right so it doesn't mean that that can't Happen it could theoretically happen and My guess is if it did it would actually Lead to the breakdown of all Bitcoin Pairs but that is where I think we are Right now thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and again check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptoverse decom I'll see you guys next Time bye


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