Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium add into the Crypt.of these 20% drops 20 to 22% drops That's what they've all been and once Again this drop here was only about a 21 To 22% drop so I mean it goes to show You that the trend is still intact and That sometimes you still will say just Kidding when going near the bull market Support band so and the reason why That's important is it because it tends To have implications for later on down The road right again I mean it could be Weeks it could be months but it tends to Have implications later on but in the Meantime Bitcoin is pushing close to the The the yearly High the yearly High Being just below $49,000 so one of the things to to take A look at here if you look at some of These daily moving averages in the Context of the the the bullmark sport Band I mean you can see that here we Just got to remove it here we got below The 50-day and then once we got back Above it we then shot back up and in This case we actually put in a new you Know a new local high and then the same

Thing over here right once we got above That 50-day SMA we went right back up and in this Time in that case we swept the high and Then here we got above the 50-day we we Came back held it as support and then we Went up again and so this is why we were Focusing a lot on the 50-day and saying Look if you get a daily close above the 50-day SMA it sort of favors the idea of Going back up um and at the very least Going back to these prior highs one of These examples went back to the prior Highs and then a couple of the examples Actually put in new highs after you know After going below that 50-day SMA so the Trend is still intact and one of the Things we said previously is that by the Time you get a larger correction that I Know a lot of people would Like you know it certainly could imply That the trend is over and same idea That we saw in you know in 2019 I mean Very little Corrections very few Corrections and kept you know leaving People wanting more by the time you Actually had a larger Correction buying the dip at that point Didn't really work out in the short term But it still worked out you know if you If you just had the patience to wait Another year so Same idea right you're all these have Been pretty shallow Corrections um at

This point and so by the time you get a Larger one I mean for for someone who's Who isn't interested in the short term Like if you're not interested in short Term it doesn't really matter but just Something to keep in mind right just Something to keep in Mind and we also spoke a little bit About um you know we've talked a lot About the the you know the the dominance Of of um usdt probably thought I was Going to say Bitcoin right but we've Talked some about that um and and Looking at that Trend there if you look At like the market cap dominance of usdt We' we've sort of noted that if it gets Rejected here off its 20we SMA which we Had a whole video on right we had a Whole video on this that if this gets Rejected by its bull market support ban Then what you would look for is Potentially for it to to tag this trend Line eventually and the reason why this Trend line is important is because that Is actually you know this trend line is Ultimately what marked some more you Know some some some were Market cycle Tops if you want to call them that Others were just local tops that lasted For you know a few months maybe a year Um and so that sort of the magic number On that if I get the Um if I can find It

If I get the price label about 4% right If it takes longer it could be 4.3% We're currently at 5.5 but I'm telling You guys this thing can move you know The the stable coin dominance can move Quickly for instance back in you know Back in October it was at 8% and then Two weeks later it had dropped all the Way down to 6.7% so down 1.2 in two Weeks it's already down from 6% to 5 a Half% in one week alone so you know if You dropped if this dropped another Half% and came in at at 5% I mean you can see how it's not that Far away from the trend line and so I I I think that's you know something Relevant to think about as well um Something else that I you know I I Wanted to mention is is looking at it Through the lens of total right if you Look at the total market cap of crypto You can see I mean if you if you look at This Channel Here I mean you can pretty clearly see That that that local top on USD or sorry The local bottom on usdt dominance back In that QT bull market in 2019 occurred at the midpoint of the Trend line and we're still not there I Mean it it would still require and There's no guarantee that we get there Uh there's also no guarantee that we Stop there but that would put

You a little bit higher right I mean not Not even just a little bit I mean that That's actually another that'd be Another another 20% move now of course Those things as much as we would like Them to be guaranteed are not Necessarily Guaranteed we've seen other patterns Before where you know Bitcoin puts in a High like right here and then Gets and then gets a few weeks in a row Where it actually go sweeps the high so I don't think we can take necessarily Anything to the bank my point and I I've Said this before is that the way I Navigate the market is to just keep my Portfolio Bitcoin heavy as opposed to Altcoin heavy because I expect Bitcoin Dominance to go up I expect Bitcoin to Absorb that liquidity from the rest of The market and it I mean it certainly Continues to do that um I mean look at You look at all USD Valuations they look great all right I Mean in terms of just today right I mean A lot of them are up a few percent now Look at Bitcoin valuations you can see That a lot of them are down and if you Look at collectively all Bitcoin Valuations you can see that they've now Broken below their own bull market Support band and in the last cycle it Was precisely when alt broke down Against Bitcoin below the range low that

Bitcoin had finally accomplished its Goal and then it actually had a a longer Cool off period you know one of the Great things about Bitcoin point is how Long the volatility can last but then at Some point it you know the market cools Off and I think that that cool off phase Could occur after all Bitcoin pairs have Finally broken down remember last cycle Bitcoin did not cool off until the Bitcoin dominance retraced to the 0. Five retracement from the breakdown Point this cycle that would correspond To approximately 56% so I still think There's some things that Bitcoin needs To get done like breaking eth Bitcoin Down I think that is likely going to Happen as well it's still at 053 um and that doesn't mean that it has To break down immediately it certainly Could but I mean you can see that it a Lot of times when it gets in these Levels it takes a long time for it to Get back down to the range lows and at Least last cycle all Bitcoin pairs broke Down before eth Bitcoin broke down so I Think that would sort of be a telltell Sign if all Bitcoin pairs break down Then you know perhaps a few weeks later We would see eth Bitcoin break Down but you know that still could be Some time away um and I I think for now We'll see we'll see what Bitcoin can do Here if you look at a fib retracement

From the Highs so we we mentioned that if we can Hold here at the 0 five then eventually We there's a good chance we're just Going to go right back up to the 618 Right and in fact that's actually you Know I mean I'm not I I we don't have to Stop at the 618 I mean let me be clear In fact I mean if if eth Bitcoin hasn't Broken down by then then you can make The case that it won't but if you look At at last cycle I mean we we went up to The 618 we then went all the way back Down um you know to near the 382 then Back up to the 618 here we went up to The 618 we we didn't even make it to the 382 we made it somewhere in between 382 And the 0.5 retracement and now we've Gone right back up now the reason why The bull market support Ban is important in this context is that Normally what you would like to see in In uptrends is you would like to see a a Periodic retest of it to go check in With it to make sure it holds that Support and often times we like to do it Every three to you know three to four Months okay because we haven't gone to It yet it's now been 16 weeks right so We're already at the 4month Mark more or Less and the issue is that you know Eventually if we don't retest it soon Then there's a higher probability that By the time we to we do test it we could

Be too far gone to hold it as support The the same thing happened in 2021 Right I mean like we went um far too Long it was 31 weeks so about twice the Amount of time that we're at right now It was 31 weeks in in 2019 we saw Something similar right where we just Simply didn't test it for a long time And after getting above it right here it Took took 25 weeks to get back down to It and at that point we were just simply Too far gone to you know to um to hold It as support and so I don't I mean if We were to go back down and test it Right now I I think we're still in the Window where it could theoretically hold As support because it's still only been About 4 months and there are there are Examples in the past I I believe where It we it took about um about four months Before between tests like right here Might be an example yeah about 15 to 16 Weeks right and then here we left it Right there we tested it that was about 12 weeks later um but here when it Took 18 weeks you can see ultimately we Did not hold it as support so we're Still arguably in the window but if you Know if the having narrative takes over Which we said there's a good chance that It will because this Market is is Chasing ing one narrative to another if The having narrative takes over and and We see a Bitcoin move into the having um

Then by the time you actually test the 20we ese it could be it could be a lot Harder to hold it as support but again I Mean this is something that we'll likely Have to Revisit I mean if if it doesn't come Back down any time you know pretty Quickly then we'll have to Simply Revisit it a few months from now um Because a lot of times what we've seen Is you know after Bitcoin gets a push Back up it then takes a while for it to You know for it to bleed back down to The bullmark sport pend and so you know If that happens again then you know the Time frame on actually testing the 20 Week could be you know the F month Mark The six Monon Mark the seventh month I Mean you know you can see how quickly it Could get pretty far out there um if it Took as long as 2019 did then 31 weeks Would put you out in May and and I I've I've suggested may as a as sort of an an Area of Interest a few times because It's after the having and and so that Will sort of be behind us and it's after Theoretically we get the the news about Whether an an eth spot ETF is approved Or not um and so I I I think that could Be the time um and by the way you know If you look at at at last at this move Over here it started in October and then It eventually broke down in May here it Started in October and so I you know you

Have to wonder like is it is it doing Something similar where it stays Elevated for too long and then when it Holds the 20we ese or tries to hold it At whatever point you know perhaps it Doesn't actually hold um but again that Could still be that could still be some Some time off in the meantime if you Know if this just turns out to be a wick Or something like you know if if it Turns out to be something like this or Or like this then You know there's still a good chance it Would take a while to fade back into the Bmark span or if it is doing something Like this right where it just pops back Up to sweep the prior High the thing That I would look for honestly is just Keep an eye on all Bitcoin pairs because I I think I mean I yes there's some There's some outside money coming in There's obviously despite ETFs um and we We've seen the stable coin market cap go Up but as long as all Bitcoin pairs Haven't broken down then you could still Argue there's that liquidity from the Altcoin market that is there to help Support Bitcoin and I know what a lot of People are saying well saying well you Know altcoins are also up today yes they Are but the Bitcoin dominance is up you Know to 53 and a half% um so yeah you Have to keep it all you know sort of in Context of yes and we've said this many

Times if Bitcoin goes up it can take the Altcoin market with it right that's Always been the case it can take the Altcoin market with it but the only way That the altcoin market really goes up Is if Bitcoin goes up first and you know For that reason that's why we we focus So much on preserving the Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio by having a Bitcoin heavy portfolio and that again I'm not trying to suggest that if you Want to take on the risk of ALS I'm not Trying to say you can't um or you Shouldn't it just depends on what your Risk tolerance is I've outlined the Reasons that I think a Bitcoin heavy Portfolio has made sense over the last Two years compared to an altcoin heavy Portfolio you either buy it or you don't Um and at this point if you haven't been Convinced then you're probably not going To be convinced and unfortunately some People will finally become convinced Probably assuming we do get close to 60% Dominance by the time they're convinced It could be very well time for the Altcoin market to take back some of that Market share but I mean timing is Everything when it comes to all Bitcoin Valuations and you know I know we went Into this year and a lot of people were Hopeful that altcoins would sort of take Back over it being the having year but Since we haven't gone back to looser

Monetary policy as we said and with the Having coming up in April it seems like We've just shifted right back to bitcoin Which is something that was always going To be the most likely Outcome given the The Narrative driven Price action right spot ETF price Rallies into that eth merge eth Bitcoin Rallied into that like the eth Bitcoin Ratio Bitcoin having right same idea now With the merge ethusd topped out one Month before the merge but e Bitcoin Topped out on the day of the merge so we Have to keep that in mind as well and Then we also know that at least last Cycle when Bitcoin was rallying in 2019 During AED Pauls it didn't top out until One month before the First Rate cut I Don't know when the First Rate Cuts Going to be um it to some degree it's The game of chicken I think between Powell and the markets but right now the Expectation is for a rate cut in May but Just a few months ago the expectation Was for a rate cut in March and now the March rate cut has almost been Completely priced out so again it's Really hard to say when it's going to Happen I still think it's a game of Chicken more or less between the markets And and the Federal Reserve so let's see Where Bitcoin ends up here if you go Back and look at the 8we moving average You can see that we got below it but we

Got right back above it the following You know we got right back above it a Couple weeks later and this is something That that has happened before um there There was an example previously where we Got below it and then we got right back Above it and there's also examples where We got below it right here where we then Got back above it and then put in a new Local high and then came down to the Bullmark sport band right and that let's See how long that took so that one took About 18 weeks so that's why you know That's why I say we're still in the Window right we're still in the window At 16 weeks but if if we don't test if We don't test the bull market support Fan within the next month or so Then I I think the likelihood just Starts to go up that we won't hold it Whenever that test eventually happens if It if it happens in February or March Perhaps there's a chance that we hold it If it doesn't happen until May or Something then the odds go up that we Don't and again and even then it's not a Shir thing but just looking at prior History you want to test it every two to Three months four months you know Max um In order to realistically have a you Know go into the the the test of the 20we ese with a lot of confidence um but Right now I mean right now we we still Haven't we still haven't tested it we

Did get somewhat close um but I mean not I mean even then you'd still like to see It go all the way down there and this Was still a couple percent away from the 21 we EMA and even further away from the 20we SMA right I mean 2 and a half% from The 20we EMA 21 we EMA from the 20we ese It was about a 5% thing and you know I I I even said to you know to to to people On ITC premium when we rallied into the Spot ETF when we went above the 6 Wristband and some you know and some People lightened their their their stack When we got back down to 39K I was like Look guys if you if you're light on your Your you know your your your your Bitcoin Portfolio this might be the only Correction that we get for a few weeks Right you know your your your 20% drop Because that's what every correction has Been so far you know doesn't matter if You want it to go down more that's just What these Corrections have been about a 20 to 21% Drop And sometimes you take what you can get Um so those are my views on bitcoin I I I think that the main thing to watch is Bitcoin dominance which we'll do a video On um remember last cycle Bitcoin the Uptrend was intact until the 0.5 Retracement which was around 56% Dominance for this cycle last cycle that

Corresponded to well over 56% dominance This cycle would correspond to 56% Dominance I also think keep an eye on All Bitcoin valuations as long as they Haven't broken down then there still is Liquidity that's making its way over to Bitcoin which is still you know it has Been a Tailwind for Bitcoin USD for Altcoins total 3 minus usdt Bitcoin look For that 4 40% right now it's at 44% It's almost at 43% okay look for that and then finally Look at at eth Bitcoin because eth Bitcoin is you know also I think needs To eventually break down and at least Historically the last two cycles it was A Bitcoin rally that broke each Bitcoin Off of support and you can see right now In the context of these rallies it's Breaking a lot of altcoins down I mean Just look at this yes there's a couple That are up um but even the ones that Are up are only barely up like a quarter Of a percent or so or less the ones that Are down most of them are down 2 or 3% right and poor Litecoin is down Almost 4% link Bitcoin is down 3 and a half% BNB 2.6% Down so I would I would watch those as Long as they haven't yet broken down Collectively there's there's still that Liquidity there there and and we'll see You know we'll see what Bitcoin can do

Here and we'll see how high the Dominance can go and we'll see you know If we can sweep these highs or do what We did back over here and go go a bit Higher so those are my views on the Market right now I honestly can't tell You exactly where it's going to to cool Off from what I have said for for months Now is that when it gets into these Moves you're you're better off just Trying to get out of the way and not you Know not constantly try to time things Because often times you know Bitcoin Goes higher than we think and then often Times it goes lower than we think um and Again you know in 2019 you know Bitcoin Rallied 350% um during that QT late business Cycle phase right now it's gone up about 216% so I mean at this point this rally Was actually more impressive than this One but this one has lasted longer I Also there's a good chance that it's Also lasted longer because we actually Haven't shifted over to looser you know Looser monetary policy where where the Market fundamentals have at least last Cycle changed anyways we'll go we'll go Ahead and wrap it up thank you guys for Tuning in make sure you subscribe give The video a thumbs up and again check Out the sale on into the cryptoverse Premium at intothe crypto.com I'll see

You guys next time bye