Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin dubious speculation if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse Decom let's go ahead and jump in I can Already tell that this will be a longer Video and the reason for that is because I mean I certainly have a lot of Different thoughts about the current Situation in the market and how it Relates you know how Bitcoin relates to To to The Ether Bitcoin pair and how That relates to bitcoin dominance and How all of it relates to alt Bitcoin Valuations and how that relates to say Like the stock market and the macroverse There's so many things to think About and it's it's really complicated You know to try to put it all together Into a a cohesive argu arent that makes Sense that you can stand back and say All right these are are the most likely Outcomes for the next few months and Let's see how it unfolds one of the Reasons why I think there's so much Tension in the cryptoverse right now is Because there's there's two very Different competing views on the market There's one side of things that simply

Suggests that that bitcoin price action Follows the having Cycles uh by the way It's having it's not Happing and the second of which implies That bitcoin price action more closely Follows sort of macro business Cycles Right you know going from quantitative Easing to quantitative tightening and Really up until this point they've They've all seemed to align and there's Actually still a chance that they could Align this cycle really depends on on How the next few months play out so what I want to do in this video is just go Through a couple of different scenarios I don't really think we need to go Through through too many but to go Through a couple of different scenarios Now before we get too much further I Will say I I I cannot predict this the Short-term price action like I don't Know what's going to happen um i' I've Said before a lot of times in the short Term it's more or less a random walk and And it's it's really it's next to Impossible to predict and in a video Such as this one to express sort of both Sides of of the views it it's going to Make people uncomfortable right because The the bullish view would make people Concerned about sort of the macro side Of things uncomfortable but the bearish View would make make people that are More concerned about just sort of

Bitcoin repeating what it's always done A little bit more uncomfortable so what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you How both sides can come up with evidence To support their view um and you know I'll talk about you know My Views as Well but that's what I I I would like to Do in the Video the first thing to sort of Acknowledge here is that Bitcoin has had A pretty sharp selloff following the Spot ETF okay so we had this spot ETF Launch Bitcoin rallied all the way up to You know about 49k or so and since then It's had a pretty sharp drop uh but the Grand scheme of things it the drop at This point is not that dissimilar from What we've previously seen in fact if You were to take a price range here you Can see that we've dropped about 21% interestingly enough these prior Drops were also about you know 20 21% 22% in that Ballpark right so at this point I I Don't really think anyone can say that This drop has been out of the ordinary Right I think that'd be a fair Assessment to say look guys this is Still within the realm of what we've Seen this cycle and and to suggest Otherwise would be somewhat Premature we know too that after Bitcoin Has dropped below the 50-day moving Average on more than one occasion you'll

See that it tends to drop another 14 15% After going below that 50-day SMA right 14 15% drop here so far it's Dropped about 10 11% 10 to 11% so yeah Like in that regard it would lead you to Believe that it it certainly could drop Further especially considering that it Has not yet reached the bull market Market support band okay but again There's no guarantee that we test it and If we do test it it could still be Several months away right like it might Not be this week it certainly could be But even in in Prior cases it took a While to sort of slowly bleed back down To it and in this case over here we just Had a single Wick down to it and then That was it and we were right back up Right really like the following day um But that is certainly something that I I Think is worth keeping in mind is that Look there's no guarantee that we go Down to it immediately and even if we do We could get we could get a sharp bounce Off of it and that's why I've said Before the reaction is going to be very Very important okay and one way to maybe Illustrate that is to look at the market Like this there's been a couple of times Where we sort of dipped below the bull Market support band like right here in Late or sorry mid 2021 we then got back Above it came back down to retest It and then got another

Pushup kind of a similar thing here Right we were we Were below it we got above it we came Back down to test that bull market Support band just a wick kind of like That one there and then we got a final Push Up so you can see this pattern has Emerged a couple of times and so you Know looking at the market Today we have this move here where we've Gone below It and clearly this is a significant Level right like 48 49k is a significant Level that doesn't mean that we can't Take it out but what I'm what I'm saying Is that I I think at the very least it's Similar to a move like this where it it Does Mark at least a local High um for a A you know some time right where it's Going to take more than just a day or Two to get back above it and so this is Why I say you know looking here and here The reaction around this Zone I think is Going to be incredibly important you Know does it get something like this Where it then pops up to take out this High now I mentioned that you can find Evidence to support either View right Because on one hand looking at at these Patterns right here would certainly be Evidence to support that view you could Also look at competing evidence on say Bitcoin USD back in 2019 and see that

These long Wicks over here this long Wick that occurred in June was never Over taken right so there's no guarantee That we can even take out that prior High even if we do get a bounce in fact In 2019 when we when the bounce finally Came we didn't we it just kept being Sort of shorter and shorter Wicks look At monthly Candles for Bitcoin USD back then right So going and looking at 2019 you see Those monthly candles right we had one Long Wick and then they just kept Getting further and further down after That so I I I certainly am not Suggesting that there's any guarant That we can take out that high what I am Pointing out Simply is That there's two different patterns that We've seen one of Which we saw Bitcoin top Out just like here and then it didn't go Any further but if you look at 2019 you Will see that we put in this High here On some type of major product launched To the the cryptoverse and then Following that we actually did sweep That high eventually right so there's no Guarantee that that something like that Can't happen again I've I've clearly Noticed that the market has has very Much been you know chasing one narrative To another you know whether it's the Spot ETF whether it was the merge it

Seems like right after the Bitcoin ETF Launched um people started to Immediately shift gears to the ethereum ETF which you know I I don't know if It's going to be approved or not but it Certainly seems like we're just sort of Chasing one narrative after another And the the the two most compelling Narratives for the first half of the Year are the Bitcoin having And Potentially an eth spot ETF right Potentially but that's no guarantee Right I said before I I think it's much More likely that that the Bitcoin one Gets approved over ethereum because I Think it's a little bit more clear that Bitcoin is a commodity whereas while I Think it would be nice if if ethereum Ether would just be declared a commodity I don't know if it's going to be that Simple I mean they might push back on That for some time and therefore an Ethereum ETF might not be approved for You know a lot longer than than people Are initially hoping for okay so I think It's fair to say that we could Envision both potential outcomes here Right one outcome being where you get Some type of bounce off the bull market Support ban and then the question is Does it take out this high or does it Not okay so again over here we took it Out even over here we took it out over

Here we did not and so there's no you Know there's nothing I can point to to Say definitively What's going to happen because you're Going to be able to find evidence to to Suggest the Contrary one of the things that I I Think is interesting is is how all of This relates to the dominance of Bitcoin And I know a lot of people give me crap For it that's okay but what I will say Is that you know the views on Dominance have been I think I think They've been in line with what we've Discussed I mean we never suggested that It would go up in a straight line um It's a long and grueling process where Altcoins basically just get shaken out They get rined on their Bitcoin Valuations and you know for the entire Time people keep thinking that they're Holding up well on their Bitcoin Valuations how many times this year has Someone told you that you know that Ether Bitcoin is holding up well right Over the last basically since the merge How many times has someone said that oh Well ether's holding up well okay fine But it still just kept putting in lower Highs right like it the trend hasn't Necessarily changed and so I I think That's important to acknowledge that yes Like it's it's it's holding up better Than it did last cycle but who's to say

That this pattern that has emerged by Ether Bitcoin isn't the same pattern That's playing out this cycle namely Where you you put in a Low after putting in sort of this double Peak pattern right you put in a low and Then after that you keep testing that Low until eventually it breaks right Eventually and sometimes it's taken Longer than other times to Break um But this is what we're looking at right And so when I look at a chart like this I say well you know how how does it Break down down does it have to doesn't Have to it doesn't have to break down But how would it break down how would it One thing to remember and I've I've been Clear about this for a long time is that Ether Bitcoin has Historically broken down on bitcoin Rallies okay now that doesn't mean that It has to break down in a Bitcoin rally There are times in in sort of the Intermediate parts of the trend where It's breaking down on on a Bitcoin dump And in fact right here you will see There is a a phase at nearly the same Valuation that it is today where Bitcoin Dumped and ether Bitcoin lost this Support Level right you can see pretty clearly Bitcoin dumped and then ether Bitcoin Lost support and it came down so I'm not Suggesting that it has to lose support

On a rally but if you look at the two Other examples where their Bitcoin loss Support right here and right here they Occurred on bitcoin rallies right now You might notice actually that when it Lost support here it was actually on a Rally to a slightly lower high the high On bitcoin USD came the week of June 24th but ether Bitcoin did not lose Support until the week of of July 8th I Believe I think a lot of people maybe Overlook that but you can pretty clearly See we know that this peak here was the Actual High when you look at the Wicks But ether Bitcoin didn't break down Until a the week of July 8th after Bitcoin USD had part had already put in Its high it was about two weeks later Okay so that's something I I I think That it's important to sort of remember Um I think That when you think about where Bitcoin Is right Now there's certainly elements of this Business cycle that have have been Interesting to say the least compared to Prior business Cycles one thing to Suggest I'm trying to provide evidence For both sides so that neither side Feels like they you know they got Shafted in some way right one thing to Consider about where Bitcoin is now Compared to 2019 is that if you were to Overlay the NASDAQ it was actually when

The NASDAQ put in a new you know when it Was putting in new highs that is Actually where Bitcoin topped out right around the time That bit that that the NASDAQ was Putting a new highs if you overlay that You can see that the NASDAQ had sort of A fake breakout and then it broke out And you kind of have to look over here And sort of see the same thing right Like the NASDAQ had the same sort of False Breakout but then Bitcoin topped after That on say the actual Breakout by the NASDAQ which by the way I mean it still Actually came back below the prior highs To put in a higher low but it was the Second breakout to new highs by the NASDAQ that sort of LED Bitcoin to the Downside and I I wonder if the reason For that is because the Market's just Constantly chasing new narratives right For a long time the Market's chasing the Spot ETF and then the market changes and Says oh well you know let's stop talking About the spot ETF let's now chase the NASDAQ and Techo and the AI narrative Right so I I I I do think there's a lot Of elements of that where people are Just sort of chasing one narrative to Another whether it's you know Bitcoin Spot ETF whether it could turn into the Bitcoin having whether it's AI whatever It might be it just seems like we're

Chasing one narrative to Another my concern for for Bitcoin is Really what happens If and when the narrative changes from No longer thinking about the having and And and the spotf or ethereum and all That stuff what happens when it's June You know May or June and we're in the Dog days of summer and all these Narratives that people have been chasing Forever there's not really another great Narrative to Chase and and then the Economy is is starting to slow down in Line with historical Time frames that it has taken the Economy to slow down after yield curve Inversion so that is you know that's Something that I I I just constantly go Back to of when is that going to be the Narrative that takes Hold the one thing to consider with Bitcoin as it relates to ethereum is That if Bitcoin were to bounce off the Bull market support band it would likely Take eth with it Okay but the the key thing to watch is If that Happens Bitcoin dominance should go up Do you guys Remember a few months ago where Dominance got washed out for like two Months straight which is essentially What just happened and then following That we just started a slow dominance

Uptrend for a While if you see something like that Play out where where either dominance Just keeps going up or whether it goes Up maybe gets rejected and then goes up Again if this starts playing out Again then I think we we need to be Aware that it could be playing out like The last cycle now you might not know What I mean well if you look at at the Last cycle with dominance one of the Things you'll note and i' I've pointed This out many many times is that Bitcoin Stayed risk on until we achieved Dominance of retracement a fib Retracement to the 0. five okay so to Overlay Bitcoin USD could be Helpful so here you can see that Bitcoin Topped right there the week of June 24th And that is precisely when Bitcoin Dominance retra red to the 05 Retracement level to that Level the 0.5 retracement for Bitcoin Dominance this time is not 65% like it Was last time the 0.5 retracement is 56% 56% So I don't know how it's going to play Out but if it did play out it means bit Bitcoin continues to wash out these Altcoins on sporadic Bitcoin rallies Until we hit 56% dominance now that Doesn't mean that the rally has to go to New highs or local highs like it it

Doesn't mean that it has to go to 50K or The low 50s but it could if it were to Play out like it did last Cycle so you know when we when we look At this Chart 56% dominance that I think is the Level where e Bitcoin durably breaks Support on the weekly time frame at at 56% Dominance so if sometime over the next Half year we're looking at the dominance Chart and it says 56% then that would imply to me that Ether Bitcoin has durably broken down And what I mean by durably breaking down Is I mean a weekly close below 049 a weekly close below it we have not Yet had a weekly close below it and I've Said before it's important to get a Weekly close below that level So why do we care so much about this Well remember the issue for ethereum is Not whether Bitcoin goes up right the Issue for ethereum is if Bitcoin goes up More aggressively than eth because if Ether breaks down against Bitcoin History would suggest that sometime After That a large correction could occur it Could already we could already be in one Right we could already be in it the Correction could already be here and Everyone's maybe hoping for a bounce That never comes but when you look at

Ether USD what do you notice about it what do We notice about when ethereum finally Took the plunge to the lower regression Band as always it was after ether Bitcoin broke down not before it was After so if you look closely here you'll See That right Here after ether Bitcoin broke down That's where ether USD took the plunge Last cycle when ether Bitcoin broke down Right here in June of 2019 that's where Ether USD Took the plunge to the lower regression Band and so right what we're looking at Here is Well we're flirting with it right I mean Like it it it looks kind of similar you Know you have your your your initial low You got your initial low and then you You sort of flirt around these levels For a while but eventually I'm afraid it Will break and if and when it Breaks is that when ethereum get it's That larger Correction it could be a severe Correction not just a 20 to 30% Correction in fact Historical moves back down to the lower Part of the aggression band have been About a 70% drop this was a 70% drop This over here was about a 70% drop not Including the recession pandemic not

Including the the the blacks Swan I Think some people say well you know was A black one it already had a 70% Correction before that like I mean just Assume that this doesn't even exist on The chart we still saw ethereum drop to The lower part of the regression Band After ether Bitcoin broke down and ether Bitcoin broke down on a Bitcoin Rally so where is ethereum today well I Mean a 70% correction from the current Prices would basically put it at the Lower part of the regression ban now That doesn't imply necessarily that this Is where ethereum has to correct from it Certainly could be the case you might Say well isn't that a cheap way out for Me it's not because for me all I really Care about is The Ether Bitcoin pair as It relates to ethereum because I think Ethereum breaks down against Bitcoin I Don't have much interest in ethereum I Can acknowledge that it's possible for Ethereum to go higher on its USD pair But I I would also say the only way it Does that is if Bitcoin gets an Aggressive bounce off of say like the Bull market support ban or the 100 we SMA that's the only way in my mind which Could be flawed but that's the only way That I I would see ethereum getting Another push higher would be that if Bitcoin gets that push back up first so Yes like it's possible that ether could

Go higher um there's actually some Similarities right between between this Low here and then this low here right This is about a 10x move right because This low here was about you know in the 80s this low here was in the 800s this High here the weekly closed was about 300 and then it had a wick a few hundred Higher than that and so you know we Haven't we haven't hit 3K on Eth there no guarantee that we do right But what I can say is that if it's going To happen it's probably going to happen In the next couple of months right Because you know I mean you can see There was a pretty big correction over Here by eth it dropped about 14% in a Week and then it got that final move up And then it broke down but Here's the thing I don't know if this Move is going to occur frankly I don't Care you know I and I've been clear for Years that my crypto portfolio is just Bitcoin heavy because I basically expect Almost everything else to break down Against it over time until we get back You said it to looser monetary policy so What I'm looking For to get interested in Ethereum is first I would would need to See ether break down against Bitcoin Which my guess is it's still a few Months away from doing That I would not mind it breaking down

Sooner I wouldn't mind it at all but There's a lot of history that shows that You know when we do get bounces by eth Bitcoin it takes a while to get back Down to those lows right people don't Just give up on it that easily they'll Fight and with the spot ETF stuff For Eth they'll fight a long time until it's Just like the consumer the consumer will Spend until they literally just cannot Cannot spend anymore so people will Fight as as hard as they can to keep This ratio Up but in the end in the end I I still Think it will fall it might not fall Until March or May or June right I don't Know here it fell in in in the month of July but it tested it you can see that It tested it in September and in December and in May and then it finally Fell in July we said going into January That if we don't get a weekly close Below this level early on in January Then it's likely to get a bounce and the Reason for that is because January does Tend to offer favorable seasonality for Ethereum right it does and so yes the Same thing played out just like it Usually does right the same the Basically the same thing played Out so when I look at at you know at at Bitcoin and I think like Well is this the top for a while is this

Sort of the the midcycle top if you want To call it That it's possible but I will say if it Is the midcycle top I have a feeling the Market will give it another go just to See if it is right you know just to make Sure so the market market participants Might say well you know there's the Having and and they're going to see one Last time if that's the top or if they Can if they can take that out in 2019 They were not able to take it out in 2021 they took out that long Wick right Here they did not here they Did here it went about you know 6% above 6% above that Wick would put you at Around you know 52k or So so it's a dilemma right it's sort of A dilemma of well is that is that move Going to come or not there's another way To sort of visualize this stuff and and Um I I want to I want to continue to Provide evidence on on sort of both Sides of the argument and the reason I Do it the reason I I I provide evidence For both sides is so that people can can Can invest accordingly right so that People can say all right you know we've Seen the arguments and based on on the Risk this is how you want your portfolio To be right sort of an acknowledgement That we can't know the future but There's a certain risk that we go up There's a certain risk that we

Experience a terrible crash and how do You hedge against that sort of stuff Right well for me you know the way I've Done it as I've said is just I've kept My crypto portfolio Bitcoin heavy but I've also got some cash on the sidelines Uh in case there is a larger drop I'm Not going to apologize for that uh That's That's what makes sense for Me one of the things I I think to to Look at is at this point we are still Still following historical Norms the Year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin in 2024 is Actually still mimicking 2016 right is it not it's still Mimicking 2016 and you can see that in 2016 after about you know the fourth Month or so Bitcoin had another large Move to the Upside if Bitcoin were to get another Large move to the upside like it did LA In uh 2016 then I think this would Probably be enough to break ether down Against Bitcoin if it has not already Broken down against Bitcoin So this is an important chart to look At you can see that in 2020 we had a a much larger drop In 2012 we also had a drop in all three Cases in all three cases prior to this Cycle we had a drop in q1 of the having Year in all three and that's why I said

Going into the having year that you Should be prepared for That right we had the drop here we had It right here And we also had It right Here and now looks like we've more or Less had it again it's a very common Pattern for Bitcoin to get this drop to The bullmark sportband but as I said so Far it's not different from these Corrections that we've already seen Right it's not that Different and we need to see the Reaction At the bullmark sport band one thing That has not yet happened that I still Think needs to happen is that alts need To break down against Bitcoin total Three minus usdt to bitcoin has not yet Broken down you can see that last Cycle it took a while for it to break Down in fact from when it set this first Low right here it didn't durably break Down for about 41 weeks 41 weeks after This low right there puts you in April Which coincidentally is the month of the Having which by the way is Coincidentally the same the month before The First Rate cut if it doesn't come in March right now Market thinks First Rate Cut comes in May so think about it it seems to be Aligning to some degree you have

Altcoins still have not yet broken down Against Bitcoin we know that last cycle They broke down in June of 2019 which was 1 month Before the First Rate Cut right it was one month before the First Rate cut one month before this First Rate cut potentially could be April which by the Way is the having Month which by the way is where we've Historically seen another move by Bitcoin if the if it if it already Hasn't had some type of massive Capitulation like we got in March of 2020 So I still think alts need to break down Against Bitcoin but they haven't broken down yet Right they Haven't but I think that is is something That will Happen in the first half of this year I Think all Bitcoin pairs will Drop we need to see total 3 minus USD Divided by Bitcoin go below 40% and get Weekly closes below 40% just like I Think ether Bitcoin needs to drop below 049 and get weekly closes below that Right if you were to look at some of the Other Altcoins you know Ada is a good example Ada Bitcoin Ada Bitcoin had a big local Top right there which I think kind of is

Similar to that One right you can kind of see similar Moves Here but you can see that after it had That move it it just faded back down and Eventually it finally broke that low in June of 2019 one month before the First Rate cut again First Rate cut Potentially coming in May maybe March It'd be interesting if it came in March Because then everything gets fast Forwarded potentially to now right but I Think it's still going to break Down So what if that is ultimately what Happens that you know Bitcoin continues To chop Around for let's call it three more Months and during that time alt break Down against Bitcoin you can see over Here after after Bitcoin put in this Local high in June we didn't even break Down until September July August September it was three Months three months of chopping Around before Bitcoin finally broke Below the bull market support ban 3 Months 3 months from here guess where That puts you puts you in April that Would be three months from Now also if we do put in a new local High or we sweep the high kind of like We did over here if we do something like That history shows it would probably

Happen in in March or April right in in Potentially March or April maybe May at The latest but I still think this Market Has hasn't has been very uncanny in Terms of rallying into narratives Whether it was the merge the spot ETF um everything you can think of it's Basically just done something like that But I think later this year the Narratives are going to change from all Of that stuff that people are worried About right now to oh crap how much Damage should the Federal Reserve do and When that happens That's when I think ethereum finally Gets that larger Drop if you look you can see last cycle It actually played out in a very similar Manner with with ether you had a low a Higher low a higher low and on the Fourth attempt it finally broke and that Was where that larger drop came note That on the fourth attempt it broke After ether Bitcoin broke so what that Would imply is that ether Bitcoin will Break down first and then after ether Bitcoin breaks down ether USD will Probably lose this trend line Potentially you know sometime in the Next few months or so Right this is if it were to play out in A similar way so what I'm suggesting is That sometime in the next few months Ether Bitcoin breaks down after ether

Bitcoin breaks down ether USD breaks Down one of the things about ether USD That you might notice is that it doesn't Tend to just put in a low and then never Test the Integrity of that low look at All the prior Examples right you have a low you test The Integrity of it you have this low Here you test the Integrity of it same Thing same thing Again so at some point I think we're I Think ethereum will test the Integrity Of that low Back down below $1,000 Um but history would also suggest that It won't test it until after ether Bitcoin breaks Down and history also suggests that Ether Bitcoin probably won't break down In January because normally January is a Good month for Ethereum and it could still take some Time given these narratives that are Floating around given the spyf for E Given the the having narratives right it Could take some time for that to play Out but imagine ether USD or ether Bitcoin just you know sort of stays in This range and then eventually breaks Down that when it breaks down assuming That it does that I think is when ether USD will break Down right something like

That which would take it as we've said Before To the lower regression B the issue is I don't know what type of Shenanigans are going to go on between Now and may right like I don't know if It's I don't know if this move is Already over and it's just going to sort Of slowly bleed here and then go back Down or if it'll get one more push Higher like it did over here because What you might notice is that this move By Ether over Here that initial move got it to 270 that's interesting isn't it because This move right here got it to 2700 but look the only way ether gets This move here right the only way in my Mind that it gets that move is if Bitcoin gets a move back Up and I don't think I don't think Bitcoin's going to get that move back up Until I mean I think I think we still Need to have some time go by um we do Have the the OMC the last day of the Month so about a week from um or sorry Yeah about I mean a a week from a little Over a week from when I'm recording this Video I don't know exactly when I'm Going to get this video out but probably In the next day or two but January 31st So you know if if Bitcoin is going to Get a bounce to test whether that's the High or not that's when it's probably

Going to happen right sometime February Or March time Frame and the hard part is I don't know If it's going to take out the high or Not 2019 it did it or sorry in 2019 it Did not but in 2021 it did there's other Ways that we can look at this and and One of them is actually usdt dominance You're like oh well that's coming out of Left field but take a look at at usdt Dominance there's actually a a somewhat Interesting Trend here on usdt dominance Where essentially what has happened is That every time it tags this trend line It is marked a significant level a Significant Top look at these trend line look at the Trend line where it tagged it June 2019 You guys know what happened in June 2019 that marked the top for Bitcoin Right here June 2019 you remember what Happened in February 2020 when we tagged This trend line February 2020 is right Before Bitcoin Collapsed what happened in May of 2021 Right when we were tagging this trend Line we were tagging it in March April And May that was when Bitcoin was Putting in all these highs right here we Were tagging that trend line the entire Time and then look at it again November Of 2021 we tagged the trend line and you Guys know what happened in November that Marked that

Top and so that's the question is is is Usdt dominance going to get rejected Here and come back down for one last Move I mean in September it was at 8 and A half% dominance now it's at 6 and a Half% dominance the trend line is at About 4% dominance so if usdt dominance Were to go down to % that would probably Be a huge warning signal to the market a Huge warning signal at 4% dominance for Usdt because anytime it's gotten that Low you then get a rotation out of Crypto or out of risk assets into the Stable coins and you get a massive crash In crypto when that happens so I'm not Saying that that crypto can't go down There's been plenty of times throughout This entire phase over here where Bitcoin had drops we also know that bit Bitcoin has had significant drops um you Know at at other times right like it's Not like it had to be at at a peak for It to have a significant drop I mean you Know when it was here in April of 2022 It was just before it had a significant Drop but it wasn't on the trend line so What I what I'm saying is if it comes Down here right like if Bitcoin were to Get a pop up after hitting the bullmark S band and if usct dominance were to go Back down to the bottom of the trend Line then to me it would Suggest that there's a a crash that's About to ensue as they we've always

We've always had crashes after we hit This trend Line now you might say why does it have To play out like this why does it it Doesn't we don't it we don't have to Have a crash right like nothing has to Happen it's just that ethereum tends to Drop after the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation breaks down that's what tends To happen and that just hasn't happened Yet because people have been so so Stubborn and they just keep you know Going full Deen into the altcoin market But history shows us that dominance does Not likely top until after rate Cuts Arrive Right dominance did not top here until After rate Cuts arrived so why do I Assume it has to be different what if This time's not different what if what If dominance does not top until after Rate Cuts Arrive Let's suppose the First Rate Cuts in March you can see here we had a First Rate cut in July and then dominance TOS Two months after that right so if if the First Rate let's say the First Rate Cuts In May so then June July so then July Would potentially be two months after The First Rate Cut but I I I still think that there's a Case to be made that Dominance is potentially sort of in this

Range right here And we're going to get a a large move to The upside relatively Soon now there actually is one chart I Could look at that is is a little bit Scarier than the way than looking at it Like this I mean if you look at it like This it looks like everything's fine and There's nothing to be concerned about Which could be the case at this point we Haven't had that big of a drop there's Other ways to look at it which would Suggest it could get a little bit a Little bit more challenging um you know If you look at at like the the running One-year Roi you can see that it's it's been Dropping a lot recently and and after it Sort of hit these levels in the past We've had pretty big drops in fact once It hit this level last cycle in February 2020 that's what happened just before The Crash another way to look at it is to Look at the uh the ROI from the Peak for Bitcoin sorry that's the wrong One and if you just look at this cycle Compared to last cycle this is actually Look at the green line that's this cycle The orange line that's the last cycle Right around now is is where that big Drop occurred Right so it's this Market I feel like It's constantly keeping under toes and

You can see how there's so much evidence To support either of you right like we Could look at at at different pieces of Evidence you might say well you know is There any is there any guarantee that The market or the the economy has to Slow down there's no guarantee of Anything okay um but I will say you know To ignore it might not be the wisest Idea if you look at the yield curve it Is still inverted it is still inverted If you look at at Treasure yield Spreads the three Monon and the 10e the spread on this is um you know I Mean still very much inverted and at Some point I imagine it will become Uninverted uh this year look at the 2-year and the 10year spread it's almost At un inversion already it's getting Pretty close normally that signals Weakness if and when that happens hasn't Happened yet but it's getting pretty Close if you were to look at say like The 10year treasury yield it's moving Back up but I wonder if it's just going To get rejected up here if you were to Take a look at the 2-year minus the 10-year you may notice that it just got Rejected off the bullmark sport band Which a lot of times when that has Occurred during y curve inversion Happens just before the Uninversity but there's certainly a lot

Of different things to suggest that the Economy is slowing down and I know I Know the labor market has been Relatively tight if you were to look at Initial claims still relatively low I Mean 187k that's not really recessionary Territory you would expect it to be Somewhere in the 300 range with that Said I mean there's certainly things That you could look at um Like Highers and if you were to look at at Say new highers and and Take the inverse of that so 1 over M2 and then we're going to Overlay the unemployment Rate you can see that you know I mean Normally this one over highers sort of Leads it right so if it's going up it's Only a matter of time before the Unemployment rate starts to go up and It's been going up up pretty Aggressively right hes has been dropping Like a Rock So it seems like it's just a Matter of time so my view on the market Is this I I I just want to be clear my View on the market is This I think that over the next few Months Bitcoin is going to chop the Altcoin market Up that's what I Think that shouldn't be news to you That's been my view for two years is That that's what happening and people

Are give me a hard time about it but who Can look at the Bitcoin dominance chart And say it was wrong right with a clear Conscience who can look at the dominance Chart and say that was the wrong view Dominance has been going up for a long Time despite people claiming it's not it Has been so my view is that over the Next few months Bitcoin chops the Altcoin market Up my view is that it's going to get Certain types of bounces either off the Bullmark sport band potentially the 100 We SMA there's all sorts of levels that You could look at right but we've been Talking about these levels for a while You know 36k 37k that's where the bull Mark SP Bend is um you could even go Back down to the high 30s and low 20s But at some point I think there will be A Bitcoin bounce on on its USD Pair and when it bounces that's where I Think alts finally break down on their Bitcoin P that's where I think ether Breaks down on its Bitcoin pair when Bitcoin Bounces regardless of whether it takes Out the prior High I don't it doesn't Matter to me right Regardless So whether it bounces at the bullmark Sport ban whether it bounces here Whether it goes back down to this level Um or whether it goes down to the the

100 we estimate which has historically Been visited as well around this time of The of the cycle whatever it does right Whatever it does all any any type of These scenarios when the bounce Occurs if a bounce occurs I think I I Think that is where alts break down Against Bitcoin if there is no bounce if no Bounce occurs if if everyone's waiting For this bounce that never actually Happens because perhaps instead of Getting a bounce we're just getting Something like what happened last cycle Where We just go into outright Capitulation if that occurs instead I Still think dominance will go Up Because when ether USD breaks this trend Line I think it's basically just Straight straight back down to the Bottom part of the range right straight Back down whenever that Breaks so those are my views Bitcoin Chops up the altcoin market for the next Few months it could Bounce It could it Could put in a slightly lower High um it Could even take out the prior high if it Wants to repeat 2021 but regardless of How high it goes ether Bitcoin breaks Down as Bitcoin dominance hits 56% and we've explained why 56% is is an

Important level as Bitcoin dominance Hits 56% that's that 0.5 retracement level That we've talked About right here and you can see that This sort of this Wick right here is the Same type of thing is as as as these Wicks over Here in the same band right between the 382 and the 0.5 this is between the 382 And the 0.5 same Wicks same Levels I think eventually it's going to And you can see that it after hitting These Wicks it fell below the bull Mark Sport band between the 236 and the3 382 That's where we are right Now so when if and when this move Comes that is Where you have to be very very careful Furthermore while Bitcoin USD struggled after after dominance hit 56% or after it hit the 0.5 Bitcoin Dominance still went Up to the 618 And I Think controversial as I know that it is But I think that Bitcoin dominance can Still go to the 618 which is 60% if you were to look at Bitcoin Dominance plus usct Dominance you can see that it's actually At the same level that it was at in May Of 2019 just right before rate Cuts arrived

Right it's the same thing If you add in usdc Dominance same thing right look at this It went down to it went all the way up To 64% and then it went all the way back Down to 58 look at this 64 back down to 58 and then look now it's going up again Just like it did over here and if it Continues to go up then I'm arguing what If it just simply goes all the way back Up to the top part of the range up here At 75% this is not Bitcoin dominance This is Bitcoin dominance plus usdc Dominance plus USD dominance so you're Accounting for there's other there's Other assets that people are going to But I think Bitcoin dominance would also Go up in such a Move the Dollar is really interesting right Now because to me this looks exactly Like the Bitcoin dominance chart When it was carving out these lows look At it it's almost identical to the Bitcoin dominance Look a Low high a lower low a lower High same thing with dollar a low and a High a lower low here and then a lower High and then a lower a third lower low Same thing as Bitcoin dominance and then It took out that high right like it Swept that high and went slightly higher Just like the dollar just did over here

Right it took out these highs and swept It and went higher and then after all That Bitcoin dominance came back down Put in a low went up to the bull Mark Sport band got rejected the dollar is Now at the bullmark sport Band so if it were to continue to Emulate the dollar or sorry Bitcoin Dominance then it could come back down And then go Up or it just goes straight up so for The dollar those are my two base cases Right either it just goes straight Through it and we forego that last move Back down by the dollar or we get one Larger pullback by the Dollar near these Prior lows and then from there it goes Up which funny enough if you look at the Time Frame on this low here to the next low It was about about 3 months or so here December Right so if you were to go out let's say 11 weeks that put you in March March Which is right around the time like it All seems to be kind of like no matter How you look at it it seems like a lot Of things sort of line up around that March April May time frame you know Where where dominance is probably going To break up um ether Bitcoin will Probably break down you know sort of in That in that same time frame it might be A little bit later it could be you know

June or something As rate Cuts arrive and then everyone Shifts from talking about risk assets And and and and Spide ETFs and and all That stuff so then figuring out how much Damage has the FED done and are they Have they pushed us into a recession or Not so those are my views on the market I I hope I've I've communicated them Well I don't know if if this is the high For Bitcoin or not I I don't I I I think You can easily find reasons for it to be Cons considering that we just launched Another product from Wall Street and That tends to Mark Tops it could certainly be one other way To to view this is that I mean this was Also the coinbase IPO and then Eventually we actually swept that high So there maybe a little bit of a counter Counter evidence one thing that I've Thought about and and this is going to Get me into trouble but I I I do wonder If if ether Bitcoin is it all showing us What Bitcoin USD is going to Do Because you know ether Bitcoin put in a Significant Low and then it rallied all the way back Up and what's interesting about that Rally is that it actually Rallied I mean it had a wick higher but It rallied to the 786 and then it still came all the way

Back down to the prior low if you were To go look at Bitcoin It's already hit the 618 how many times of the last year have We said that the 618 could be tagged if It just wants to emulate exactly what it Did in 2019 right the 618 that's where I went in 2019 the 618 Just before rate Cuts arrived that's That's more evidence to suggest that That's the top it tagged the 618 just Like it tagged it Here okay But if it were to emulate ether Bitcoin And it were to go up to say the the 786 which is even Higher that I mean that would be an Insane move right that would be an Insane move that's not necessarily my Base case to be completely honest but I've seen crazier things happen the Point is I don't know whether you know Whether this is it whether it bounces up One last time um whether It I don't know what it does if you Actually look really closely at 2019 What you'll see is that it went to the 618 and then after going to the 618 it Went back down to the 382 and then back Up to the 05 and there was actually a Wick in here in between um but it still Went to the point 382 first so it was 618 then 382 then

0.5 618 was 48k it's already going past the 0.5 Guess where the 382 is guess the 382 is Exactly at the bullmark sport B right Now so if this drops here in the next Week or so it's hitting the 382 which is Exactly where it hit it in 2019 after it Came off of this high so if we hit the 382 and if we get a bounce 42k is going To be the big level that it has to get By 42k 42k is where it was rejected at Back in August 2019 after it got a Bounce so what I'm saying is that if we Do get this bounce and we go back back Up and we put in and we go to 42k if we Cannot get past 42k then it strongly Suggests that this is the local high for Potentially a long time you know until We get back to QE if we can get past 42k then you're looking at at you know Potentially coming back up and sweeping These highs or if it wanted to emulate Ether Bitcoin going up to the 786 here's The crazy thing even though ether Bitcoin went to the 786 it still bled Back down and put in a new Low it's still bled back down put in a New Low if you look at Bitcoin one of the things we've said Before is the regression Rainbow the two and a half log line rule It's already been hit I don't see why we Have to hit it again two and a half log

Lines down one two two and a half right Half one Two two and a half log lines again where Does it put it 1 two2 middle of the Green line that's exactly where we Peaked out last cycle middle of the Green Band two and a half from there half one2 It's the line that we just tagged right So we just tagged that line that line Right now by the Way is at 49.4k but when we tagged it I mean it's Kind of crazy like when we tagged that Line you can see that we basically hit The regression band right right here it Came within just a what a couple hundred Dollars we we went to basically 40 48975 The regression band was At 49.2k I mean it was literally right There So If we Bounce this would you know by by March Or April it would correspond to like 52 Right if we don't bounce then 29k is What's going to come into Play it's a you know it's a it's a Really difficult market and I I don't Have the answers I don't claim to have All the answers I hope that I've been Helpful to people I don't always get the Sense that I am but I I do hope that has Been somewhat helpful if you want to

Know like how I navigate this Market Amidst all this uncertainty I do the Same thing that I've been doing and Saying forever I DCA in at a low enough Risk level if the risk level is low Enough then I'll buy if it's too high Then I sell Some that's all I do right I don't I Don't concern myself with the ETF stuff Or the merge or whatever the newest Narrative that that crypto Twitter is Trying to sell to you think about about How many people a couple of weeks ago Were saying that there's no way it's a Sell the news event and here we are Bitcoin dropped 15% right it was a sell The news event that doesn't mean that it Can't eventually go higher but it was a Sell the news event And just don't you know don't fall for Those narratives because those Narratives you know they they seem like They're so convincing when people are Are are saying that it's it's up only And then few weeks pass you're like oh Nope it was the same thing as it always Was it was a sell the news event just Like every other institutional product Launched into the cryptoverse forever Has marked local highs oh surprise Surprise it did once Again so the two and a half log line Rule has been hit um if we were to tag It again which you can see kind of like

Over here in in February 2021 you can See that we would tag it and then we Just kind of kept tagging it as we as we Kept going Up so there there's there's I could see Something like that happening um Where you know it it sort of seems like It just won't it won't give up but Really it's just tagging the same trend Line another way to look at this by the Way is To let me get rid of the regression Rainbow look at it like This Right you can see that Bitcoin went back To this Level the same thing in 2019 you see That same Thing same Thing so The the most compelling view for Me if if there is a Bitcoin bounce the Most compelling view for a bounce would Just simply be alts still need to break Down against Bitcoin and if they haven't Broken down against Bitcoin yet then it Just means there's liquidity that needs To get washed out it needs to get rinsed Out and after that liquidity gets rinsed Out then we can get a larger Drop the question is is does it get Rinsed out just by Bitcoin chopping Around for three months like it did 2019

Or does it get rinsed out by Bitcoin Going back up and sweeping the high like It did in 2021 I don't Know I think there's a case to be made Either way I think that no matter what Happens Bitcoin dominance is going to go Up and even if Bitcoin were to Crash even if that Happens even if it were to drop like it Did over here 72% from the midcycle top 72% drop would Even put Bitcoin at a new low right even If it did That which everyone on crypto Twitter is Going to say it can't happen but even if It Did I still think Bitcoin would Eventually Recover right so that's why I still have You know that's why I still have Bitcoin even though I acknowledge it Could it could drop a Lot but I I have it because even in the Case that it Drops I think the FED will pivot we will Go back to loer monetary policy and then Bitcoin will rise Again So this is this year right Here I think at some point we'll Probably revisit this range was my guess Because at some point we need to get the Inversion of the yield curve at some

Point the fed's going to Pivot and Normally that's not a good thing for Risk assets especially crypto especially Coming out of yield curve inversion I Think some people say well you know risk Assets do well once the FED starts Cutting that's true as long as there's Not a recession so the I think the main Issue this time is that we have an Inverted yield curve sometimes the fed's Raising rates but we don't have an Inverted yield curve right we have an Inverted yield curve right now because Policy was just not nowhere near where It needed to be for so long um and I I I Think the yield curve is telling us that Something you know the economy is sick And the fed's trying to do what they Need to do to to get inflation to go Away but hasn't gone away yet so I I Think at some point we're going to come Back in here and and visit this range um This is sort of the sort of the window Of I don't know how high it's going to Go before we get that sort of that Riskof event where ether uh goes back Home as I've said and in ether Bitcoin Breaks down and and then the other thing To look at are some of these altcoins Like if you were to look at at at total Three if Bitcoin were to get a Bounce you know it would it would Certainly drag Alt with it on their USD Pairs I just think they would break down

On their Bitcoin pairs I mean even even Even Ada which has been relatively weak uh For a while I mean you can see that it Did bounce off the bull Mark sportband In May of 2019 you know two months before the First Rate cut but at a Bitcoin coin had Already topped out in April right so in In in May and June when ad USD was Getting a balance it was only getting a Balan because Bitcoin was going up it Wasn't getting a balance because because It was just you know fundamentally Strong at the time it was just getting Bced because Bitcoin was going up and it Didn't bottom until way down here after Rate Cuts arrived and it broke down Against Bitcoin which happened during a Bitcoin rally so a lot of stuff to think About I will try to provide an update to This video based on what happens over The next few weeks the thing I will be Looking at will be is there a bounce Here if there's not a bounce there your Next bet for a bounce is probably going To be in the low 30s and if not there Then your next bet is going to be at 28k Which is where the 100 we SMA Is if we W if we just Follow this and we're sitting on the Door of capitulation right Now then you know I would I would be Interested again in in alt coins if

Something like that were to happen but Until until dominance goes higher until All Bitcoin pairs break down it's hard For me to get interested and so that's Where I stand on the Market hopefully I've communicated it Effectively I don't expect to get Everything right in fact probably most Of what I said will not actually pan out In the way that I said um but I I just Want people to be aware of like you know What I'm looking for to to sort of Signal that altcoins are are durably Gaining against Bitcoin I don't even know I mean some people Tell me that that alts have been really Strong against Bitcoin but you look at Total three minus USD to about Bitcoin I'm like where right I mean you know are You just are you just looking at at the Last few months and saying oh well hey a Few months for at least a few months Alts have slowed the bleeding yeah so What they did over here too and they Still broke Down they still broke Down And even if you include eth even if you Include Eth but if they still break Down you know so that's what we're Looking at that's what I'm looking at Hopefully it Mak sense we covered

Bitcoin we covered ethereum we covered Altcoins we covered the fed and lowering You know loosening monetary policy we Looked at the treasury yield curve we Looked at a lot of stuff um one last Thing total market cap it's been in this Trend line this channel for a long time Look at these top top top bottom Bottom this was the midcycle top of 2019 We've come pretty close to that trend Line we haven't actually tagged it yet I Don't know if we're going to tag it but You can see we tagged it right there in Q3 of the of the bare Market year and Then we tagged it again just before rate Cuts here we tagged it in Q3 of the bare Market year I'm wondering if we tag it Again just before rate Cuts we already Come we already came pretty close and Honestly I could I could shift this a Little bit to show it already tagging it Right and it doesn't really look like Anything changed um but if we do tag It I wonder if if we still have to t you Know tag the bottom of this channel Which by the way the bottom of this Channel right now is still below the Prior lows in terms of total market cap It's at Bel less than 600 billion it's Going to take until August or it's going To take until September for this channel To reach these lows that we set back in In um in 2022 it'll take until September so you could always get either

An example where it you know it just Goes straight back down or it pops up And then comes back down and then and Then continues on or maybe it pops up And then goes all the way down and then And then continues on I don't know those Are my views hopefully you guys Appreciate them even though I know They're not perfect I think we'll wrap It up thank you guys for tuning in make Sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and again check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe I'll see you guys Next time bye


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