Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin dubious Speculation if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on into the cryptoverse premium At intothe cryptoverse outcom if you use The code 2023 at checkout you'll Actually get another 10% off your first Month so make sure you guys check that Out um and you can you can get that that That rate let's go ahead and jump in so In these dubious speculation videos I Just want to talk about potential Outcomes I'm not here to tell you what's Going to happen because frankly you know The likelihood that I draw out what's Going to happen is relatively low but I Do want to talk about likely outcomes Based on what we've historically seen Nothing more nothing less noting that Often times we can diverge from the past Um for instance in in 2019 we had a drop Below the bull market support band The 20we SME the 21 we EMA in Q3 of the Prehab year just like we did in 2015 and Just like we did in 2011 so going into This prehab year and and really going Into Q3 we said look we're probably Going to have a correction in the stock Market and that correction will likely Cause Bitcoin to fall below its bull Market support band right so that's what

We said and it did but you can see that It diverged after that because while Last cycle after falling below we got Rejected by the 20we ese this cycle we Got through it on the first attempt you Can see last cycle it took two attempts To get through it this cycle it only Took one so clearly there has been some Divergence between what was going on in 2019 and then what was going on in 2023 So we need to be at least aware of that Take inventory of that and again a Reminder and I I just I constantly have To remind myself of this and and to Remind people is that a DCA strategy for Bitcoin tends to work better over the Long run than trying to time the market Too much that doesn't mean that you Can't you know uh get lucky and and and You know get some pretty good Buys in at Various parts of the cycle I just stick To the rist metric so when the rist Metric is low I DCA when it's sort of Elevated I stop and then when it's high I start to sell that's all I do nothing More nothing less so we'll talk about Potential outcomes but I'm not I'm not Looking at these outcomes to sort of Dictate what I'm doing with my own Bitcoin I just want to be I want people To be aware of that because if I don't Say that I think people assume that you Know if it if it reaches a certain price And I'm selling or if it goes down to a

Certain price that I'm buying but I I Just stick to the risk levels I just Want people to be you know reminded of That one thing that often happens when We sort of sort of set these Milestones Is that we'll eventually retest them it Doesn't always happen like sometimes Bitcoin Will Will just kind of trend Higher for a long time and and not give People you know that opportunity but a Lot of times you'll see like after Breaking out to a new a new level it'll Fall back in eventually right and I mean You know it it's happened before like if You go back to 2015 we had a level and Then once we broke through it we pretty Quickly back tested it and then we had This level and then once you know once's Bitcoin broke through that it eventually Back tested if I actually draw it up to The Wicks here right so you can see that There's this common pattern of like you Know breaking out back testing breaking Out back testing and so on and so forth Right that was a common pattern that we Had in 2017 more or less all the way up I mean there were some times where it Didn't give people the opportunity to Get back in but there was still plenty Of times where you would go back back Test it and then and then continue Trending higher last cycle was similar In some ways but different in others That you had this like level here that

You know over here it was right around Where the price was here we held it as Support right um but what's interesting Is that in in in all Cycles except for The except for the very first one there Is this 100 we moving average average That once you got above it you Eventually retested it right so like Last cycle um once we got above it it Took about about five months and then we Eventually retested that 100 we moving Average um the cycle before that it Didn't take nearly as long to retest it It only took about you know five five Weeks or so we've actually broken Through the 100 we moving average not Too long ago um and it's been about About five weeks so far right so it's Been about weeks so far and Bitcoin just Slowly keeps going higher right and in Fact it actually broke above $38,000 not too long ago so Bitcoin has Continued to sort of slowly grind higher Um but that would sort of be the I think That would be the area to look for in in Future pullbacks is you know not only The 100 we SMA but also the bull market Support band it it has been very handy This year it found support there it Found support there it did not find Support here but we didn't think it was Going to right we said it's probably Going to fall below the 20we SMA in August or September and it did and then

It diverged from the the the 2019 Pattern here in in October okay now the Bull Mark sport band currently ranges From around $ 29987 so around 30k all The way up to about 31k so and that's That's actually moving higher uh Somewhat quickly I do want to look at This in a few other ways just very Quickly and we'll go through a few Different ways to look at this um let's Go ahead and get off the the bullmark Sport band and the the The moving average you can look at the Retracements and see that like last Cycle Bitcoin rallied up to the 618 in The prehab Year on a wick the the main the main Level that it reached on like weekly Closes was the 0. five right so the 0. Five retracement uh there were a couple Wicks higher but those were relatively Shortlived that 0.5 just for a reference So that people are aware of of what Valuation that would correspond to that 0.5 level This cycle would correspond to around $42,000 around 42k which is kind of Interesting because you know that's That's about three times what this you Know what we ended up going up to over Here but around around 42k the 618 by The way is all the way up at at around 48k so you have 42k and then you have 48k much higher a much higher price

Level if it were to go up to 618 while It made it to the 618 in June of 2019 You can see that the cycle before that It actually took a lot longer to reach The 618 um you can see that it reached The the 05 by June of the having year And it didn't reach the 618 until until December of the having year so basically Another year away in that cycle before It actually retraced to that level and Then last cycle again it got there by June of the having year this cycle is Obviously taking longer than last cycle Because you know we're already well past June of the or sorry of the prehab year The last cycle was June of the prehab Year this cycle we're clearly past June Of the prehab year and and it still Hasn't hit the 618 or the 0.5 so just Some numbers to keep in mind if the Rally were to continue 42k and 48k Coincidentally you know that that Corresponds somewhat Loosely to the to The um logarithmic regression rainbow That we have here um if you remember the 2 and a half log line rule that we've Historically seen play out that's half One two that one is currently at around 46 to 47k so that would I think be an Area of interest um if we're able to Rally that high another way to look at This though in terms of pullbacks and The frequency at which they occur if you Go look at at the time frame on this you

Know from here to here was about 15 Weeks right from this low to this low And then this low to the next low was About 14 weeks and then from there to The next low is about 13 weeks right so You're looking at about 13 to 15 weeks From one low to another if you look from This low in September and you go out 13 Weeks that would put the next one in the Week of December 11th um if you go out 15 weeks it would put the next low the Week of December 25th so I do want People to be aware that if there is some Type of pullback going into the end of The year then you would you would Probably look towards the prior range Highs over here as the um as the level Where where buyers would probably want To step in and and try to defend right You also have the bull market support Ban between 30 to 31k which is about to Cross above sort of this threshold right So if there is a pullback that is I I Imagine the area that the Bulls would Want to step in and and try to defend if There's not I mean you know sometimes Bitcoin just sort of slowly grinds Higher and it doesn't give people the Option um you know like it did over here Right it didn't really get any Significant pullback so I mean at this Point so far this cycle it's been a Little you know it's been a little bit More orderly than what we had in in 2020

But that would be the area to to in fact Look at and it's always hard to know It's always hard to know where the where The sort of the short-term tops end up Being before they pull back you can Always come up with reasons why they Could occur at any time um you know Sometimes we'll go above a certain level And and just sort of grab liquidity then We'll go back down and and take out the People that got in really late and then Then they sell on the downturn and then We just go right back up it's a brutal Market right it really is a brutal Market one thing that I've I've received A lot of criticism for and I as much as It's painful to read I I do think it's It's somewhat merited and fair is that I Talk about the downside risk too much I I do have mixed feelings about it I do Think talking about the downside risk is Useful talking about the upside Potential though is also useful as well Um and you know we we have talked about That somewhat this year like I I gave my High-end Target this year of Bitcoin to Be 35k and we took that out right so you Know I talk about the upside risk in the Sense of like okay we could go as high As 35k but then if you go above that Level you know what more is there to say Right like I'm not going to say oh wait No now it's going to be 36k oh just Kidding 37 oh no 38 right I'm not going

To do that you know I gave my high-end Target for the year of 35k we took it Out right that I was I was Underestimating how much Bitcoin would Go up this year um that's clear because We've already we've already gone above 30 38k so I just wanted to be aware you Know let people know I am aware that I Do talk about the downside risk a lot uh But it's it's more or less because of of My own experiences right and and seeing The last two cycles you know form a a Double bottom and then a a macro higher Low right so who's to say that that Something like that can't happen again It doesn't mean that it will right like There's no guarantees in markets we Might not get that right I mean maybe we You could always go up and then come Back down um and and and and do Something like we did in the 70s with The stock market um but if there is a You know a pullback into like into 2024 You would want to look for those sort of Those macro levels to hold right either A double b a double bottom it could be a Higher low something like that um if There were some type of major event I Think a lot of times people look to see Try to figure out what that event's Going to be that the truth is that it's Impossible to know I mean there's always Something to worry About I think the issue is that the

Things that a lot of people think will Be the reason why something could pull Back often it has to be something Completely unexpected right it has to be Something completely unexpected for the Market to really care because otherwise The market will just keep climbing the Wall of worry so if we get a pullback at You know around these levels or if it Does poke above 40K look to see if the prior Local highs hold right around the Bullmark sport band and again the 100 we SME will slowly start to to curl back up As well so those are some areas I think To look for and if those fail to hold Right if those fail to hold like they Did over Here then then you have to be prepared For a scenario of you know it could be a Macro higher low could be a double Bottom right it could be all sorts of Things no guarantee it's going to happen Right but it could happen and if it does It's always worthwhile to be prepared For something like that um you know as Far as the altcoin market goes you know The altcoin market has has had a pretty Significant rally here all the way up in Fact to the 100 we moving average um you Know I've I've been pretty critical About Bitcoin pairs this year because my My general thought process has been that They'll bleed back to bitcoin and they

Have right I mean they certainly have Bitcoin dominance has gone up for the Entire year and and Bitcoin dominance in Fact has not had a single weekly close Below the bull market Market support ban For the entire year so alts have been Collectively bleeding back to bitcoin You should note though that at sometime In the in the having year that Trend Will likely change I imagine that in the Having Year we will get closes below the Bull market support ban for the Bitcoin Dominance so I do want people to be Aware of that that there will likely be Some durable changes in all Bitcoin Trends in the having year so I I just Want people to be aware of that in the Past like in 2015 and 2019 I saw most Altcoins bleed back to bitcoin and I was Just dcing altcoins and then I always Look back and I'm like well I should Have just bought Bitcoin instead I Should have just kept my portfolio Bitcoin heavy this cycle I made sure to Sort of not make the same mistake and Instead of you know getting too much Into the altcoin market and in the Prehab year I've mostly focused on on Bitcoin because I thought the Bitcoin Dominance would go higher and that's the Reason why I've kept my portfolio Bitcoin heavy I want people to be aware That while I do hold that view even Still and going into the end of the year

I want people to be aware that that Narrative will likely change in 2024 Right you have to start adjusting your Mindset to to how you know to how these Bitcoin valuations could start to change As we get out into the having year Especially if it's accompanied by a Fed Pivot right and we go back to looser Monetary policy it doesn't mean you Can't have a selloff before that right I Mean often times a Fed pivot would Correspond to a selloff but on the other Side of a Fed pivot once the market has Found whatever it's going to be that's When alts would start to durably Outperform bitcoin so I want people to Be aware that I've had this very strong Opinion about alt Bitcoin pairs this Year and the dominance has gone higher All year long so it was it was the Correct view to hold that view will Likely have to change sometime in in 2024 and you can always of course you Know try to prepare plan accordingly Okay so just going back to bitcoin USD You know we looked at at the logarithmic Regression rainbow we looked at at the Fibonacci retracement I also think it Might be worthwhile to look at the the Short-term bubble risk which is Essentially the extension from the 20we Moving average um so if you pull up the 20we SMA there it is we're go ahead and Hide the 100 we you can see that that

Bitcoin's extension from the 20we SMA is Actually around where it was previously Right so like there there was if you go Back and look at the initial breakout Over here there were two times where the Extension from the 20we moving average Came right up to the same level that it Just hit today right so sort of drawing The line Across that's where it just went to There was a period where it went Slightly above that in in um in March But for the most part the extension from The 20 we has kind of been around you Know where it's been today um so just be Aware of that and and then if it does go Back down it's that bull market support Band that you would you know that the Bulls would want to step in and and try To hold as support um because when you Get below it that's of course where Where danger can can slowly start sort Of creep in um so do be aware right do Be aware of that that's the short-term Bubble risk you can also visualize that By looking at like the the natural log Of the price over the 20we moving Average and just kind of looking at at Some of the macro Trends there um you Know it hasn't there does tend to be Decreased extension from the 20we moving Average um as we as we continue to go on So like if we do hit that Threshold at Some point that would likely be sort of

A timely point in in bitcoin's history To I mean to do what you want right I'm Not going to say anything and I don't Offer Financial advice but you know Often times when you're hitting that Line it does tend to be a timely area Note that we didn't really hit it uh Last cycle until the end of the having Year cycle before that we didn't hit it Until you know the end of the of the Post having year cycle before that it Was also you know in the in the post Having year as well um so there's no Guarantee we're even going to hit it This year in 2019 we didn't hit it we Actually went got we got kind of close And then we just sort of faded back down And then we we went back up you know a Year or two later so do look at that um Current current value valuation there is 0. 23 you know to get back up there it'd Be about 043 so it would have to go up Quite a bit in order for it to trigger Sort of that diminished extension from The 20we from from one cycle to Another so In terms of in terms of macro or in Terms of um higher low structure I think I mentioned this earlier but you know It's been about 13 14 15 weeks or so Between all of these higher lows so if That pattern holds then it would be Sometime in in you know it could be

December if it goes a little bit beyond 15 weeks it could be sometime in in in You know early to mid January where you Would expect some sort of back test Right to go back down and see if we can Hold the Third 30 to 31k level as Support right so I imagine that's going To come sometime uh you know in in December or January it could also not go Back down that far there are instances Where Bitcoin doesn't go back down as Far as as sort of the breakout point but I mean again like there's there's plenty Of times where that is the case right Where you you break out and then you Eventually you you sort of back test Where that breakout point was um this Has happened many many times in history Will probably happen uh many times in in The future as Well an interesting thing I was looking At I mean this has nothing this is Nothing to really say on on how high Bitcoin can go but inflation has been You know a big topic this year and so I Thought hey maybe it would be useful to Look at at the valuation of Bitcoin Divided by the US inflation rate Year-over-year and when you do that What's interesting is you can see that When you divide by the US inflation rate Year-over-year Bitcoin has actually gone up 500 % this Year approximately well I mean since

November right maybe not this year but Since November it's gone up about 500% um which is kind of interesting Because I mean and also by the way this Level here corresponds to this level Right there in October of 2021 and I'll Probably do another video more or less On this but Um you can see just you know how how Different it looks when you account for Um you know when you account for the Inflation rate what's even more Fascinating is we got a similar rally in 2019 when we when inflation wasn't as Much of a topic right like if you look At the INF Bitcoin divided by inflation Over here it also rallied Up basically the same amount like it's Kind of crazy like it's it's like how Can that be possible Right like you know From this low to where it is here a 400 490 per rally and then from this low to There in 2019 a 490 rally like it's Crazy how it how it you know ends up Being the exact same thing could we go Higher this year absolutely right again My high-end Target for this year was 35k And I've learned the lesson in the in The past the hard way is when you put Out a price Target and it goes above That level it's silly to get in the Business of then saying all right no Now's the high oh no just kidding now Right it's just say hey guys my my

Target was 35k for the max upside this Year we went above that I was wrong About that view you just kind of I just Accepted a move on I don't try to get in The business of predicting when oh when Is the going to be the high um but I Just thought it was fascinating that it It moved up the exact same amount what's More interesting to me is that um this Level that it's at here is actually Where it was in October of 2021 um when You account for you know for inflation So just an interesting interesting thing To look at maybe I'll do a more a longer Video on that at some point but in this Video I do mainly want to just focus on On bitcoin USD you know what are the Trends what are the structure or what is The structure of these higher lows the Time frame between them if we do get a Pullback where are you looking to go History shows us that you know either The the the the breakout Point somewhere Over there it could be it could be the Bull market support band and then every Prior cycle except for maybe 2011 you Know I mean 2011 when we broke out above The 100 we SME we didn't we never really Went back and and and back tested it but The cycle you know the last cycle you Can see that we did in February 2016 and Then over here we we tested it in in Early 2020 late 2019 as well and then Also came back down to it in March of

2020 but then failed to hold it so you Know six months from now we could be Looking back at this and and see some Form of of retest of the we moving Average but you know it could be at a Much different price than it is today Right the one week SMA is slowly Starting to curl back up it hasn't Really started that yet yet but you can See that it won't take too much Longer um maybe a few more months before It's it's starting to Trend back up Assuming the Bitcoin USD can can stay Elevated so I think we'll go and wrap it Up there that more or less you know Covers what I wanted to cover in the Video just looking at it's just Speculating dubiously of course on where We are in the cycle trying to hold this Structure you know do we get a a a scare Where we where we put in a macro higher Low or a double Bottom it's possible right it's probably Silly to assume it has to happen but it Is possible that that something like That could happen and if it does it it's Probably worthwhile to be prepared for That outcome but going into it assuming It has to happen can be you know can be Um a hard way to to navigate the market Because then you could end up yoloing at The top uh only to see it finally go Back down to where you were hoping so Just remember it's difficult to time the

Market DCA for Bitcoin has historically Been the best strategy um in in most Cases um you know I mean if you're if You start dcing even at the highs as Long as you sort of stick with it you Know it it does turn to pan out over the Long Haul with Bitcoin for altcoins it's Really hit or miss some altcoins just Fade to zero some eventually go back up And put in new Highs but it's a lot more Hit hit or miss than it is for Bitcoin So what I will look for is is is you Know a potential back test at some point Of some of these levels in the short Term if Bitcoin wants to Trend higher Then I I I suspect that the next areas Are around 42k to look at that would be The 0. five which is where Bitcoin Topped out in 2019 on the weekly time Frame and when you account for inflation It was actually at the current valuation Uh where it where it topped out so a lot Of different ways you could interpret The price action make sure you guys have A plan stick to it thank you guys for Tuning in again make sure you check out The the sale on into the cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom you Can use code 2023 to get another 10% off Your first month you just put it in at Checkout and um I will see you guys next Time by right