Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about the Bitcoin dominance and How we can use it to better understand The phases of the market cycle if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at into The that sale is going To end in two weeks so make sure you Check that out links in the description Below or in the pinned comment now make No mistake I've been a very big Proponent of the Bitcoin dominance Trending higher for a long time and I am Also a big proponent of it continuing to Do so one of the reasons why I focus so Much on the Bitcoin dominance though I Think many people are somewhat confused By it is because for every dollar you Put in the cryptoverse you have to Figure out where you're going to put it You know do you put it in the altcoin Market and Chase theoretically outsized Gains or do you put it in a Bitcoin and And try to preserve just the the capital That you have within the crypto verse Right preserve the Satoshi value station Of your portfolio back in q1 of 2022 I Made a video saying that all coins are Going to be too risky for quite some Time the general idea is after the peak Their altcoins are just simply far too

Risky for approximately 18 months at Least on their Bitcoin pairs now we're Going to go through systematically a lot Of different metrics in this video all That sort of pertained back to the Bitcoin dominance because that is again The theme of the video So it's going to be a longer video but You know I don't really make any Apologies for it I know some people Prefer the shorter videos just because I You know they get to the point quite Quickly uh yesterday the video that I Put out of course was only about a Minute long and and judging by the the Poll results it looks like I might be Out of a job soon since most of you seem To think that my wife does a much better Job so perhaps I'll be a statistic in The unemployment numbers coming soon if Uh if this is the case but the reality With the Bitcoin dominance is that many Many times it it shows you the direction Of the altcoin market okay and you know I I debate with myself you know is it Worth talking about opportunity cost Opportunity cost opportunity cost and I Think it is because it takes a full Cycle I think to appreciate the Satoshi Value of the altcoin market because if You don't look at it you might think You're doing well uh but if you start Looking at it and you realize that the The Satoshi value of your your portfolio

Is just trending down because you're Just 99 all coins then it just it simply Shows that you're taking on a lot of Risk and you're getting less reward than If you just simply held Bitcoin now a Common retort to these sorts of comments Or that well what about such and such Altcoin that has like a 10 million Dollar market cap and it went up 3x last Tuesday because you know someone pumped It up I don't really care about that part of The market to be completely honest so I'm not I'm not trying to say that you Know people haven't made money in that In that part of the market but that's Not my cup of tea I'm not really that Interested in in that I mostly look at The top coins and the general direction Of the altcoin market as a whole okay So the first thing we're going to look At here is the Bitcoin dominance Including stable coins which I think is What most people look at uh you know Rather than excluding stable coins they Just simply look at it including stable Coins and you know I still think it Actually makes sense to lick this metric Some people say it's not worthwhile to Look at this metric but I would argue That it still is and I will go a bit More into that later on in the video but I I would still argue that including Stable coins is still an important

Metric to look at because it actually Shows that that Bitcoin the dominance Can still go up for for reasons that a Lot of people might not even expect but The dominance right now is coming in at Just below 48 okay now why this is a Very important juncture in in sort of The phase of the market cycle Is because if we can take out this high Right here 49 percent Then I think it completely changes the Nature Of the market for you know for months to Come right for for a while to come and That level is 49 so right now the Dominance is at 47.78 so what I'm Looking for is I'm looking for Bitcoin To to take out that dominance level and The reason is because if it can then I Think it has sufficiently Made it so that the altcoin market Collectively has lost their critical Bitcoin support levels the reason why That's important is because when Bitcoin Pulls back well when Bitcoin USD pulls Back the altcoin market that had Previously been able to look at their Prior Bitcoin pivot levels as support no Longer how those levels as support Because they lost them when Bitcoin USD Went up then when Bitcoin USD goes down They just simply have nowhere to hide That is the argument right so the reason

Why I'm looking at that 49 level Is because the market fundamentally Changed back over here when it took out The prior the prior high at around 51 Percent or so so you can see that right There is when the market fundamentally Changed now is there anything special About this point in mid-july right is There anything special about it it looks Like the dominance was just going up Right and a lot of people might look at That and say well if the dominance was Going up maybe Bitcoin USD was pumping The entire time but that's not actually True if you overlay Bitcoin USD on this Chart what you'll notice And and and it's a very important point Is that this dominance rally was Accompanied Halfway by a Bitcoin USD Pump and the other half was a comp Accompanied by a dump by Bitcoin USD Followed by sideways action okay so what Did you notice though what happened During the pump phase of Bitcoin of of The Bitcoin dot or sorry during the the Pump phase of Bitcoin USD that is where The dominance was able to take out the Prior local high during the phase that Bitcoin USD was going up okay Was able to take out this High here so What can we say about this we can say That Bitcoin dominance started at 39 Percent And it went to 51 while Bitcoin USD

Went up Right we can say that it seems like a Fair statement But then we know that the Bitcoin Dominance went from 51 percent to where 262 and a half percent let's just say 63 Percent so 63 percent while Bitcoin USD Went down slash sideways okay so let's Put that up on the board so we have 39 To 51 percent when Bitcoin USD went up And then 51 to 63 percent when Bitcoin USD went down slash sideways all right So Let's compare what's going on now all Right Now the Bitcoin dominance started it it I mean it really hit its local bottom in September but you can see that we we Kind of came back down put in a slightly Higher low and where would that higher Low happen to be and and even the prior Low except for that Wick it also started At the exact same level so let's compare Let's compare the two moves you have a 39 move to so far a 48 move while what While Bitcoin USD went up Okay that's all we have so far So let's zoom out here and take a closer Look at what we're working with so 39 to 51 while Bitcoin USD went up 51 is 63 while you have Bitcoin USD went Down slash sideways so far that was in 2018. so far during this move we've had 39 to 48 while Bitcoin USD went up

And we're waiting to find out right now We might look at this and say well does It have to make it to 51 to to sort of Break the back of the altcoin market I Put out a video a few days ago called You know Bitcoin breaking alts I even Color coded the candle I even made the Color uh the the candle's blue just to Sort of throwback to Breaking Bad but no One seemed to get it Um But do I think we need to go to 51 to Break the back of the altcoin market to Break alts off their Bitcoin support Levels no I don't I think a lot of them Have already broken down to be Completely honest and we'll talk about That a little bit later in the video but I think most of them have already broken Down do I think we need to go a little Bit higher ideally But why do we not need to get to 51 to Break the back of the altcoin market on Their Bitcoin pairs this level the level Of 51 is not I I don't really think it's That important what was important was That it took out the prior High okay That was what was important it took out The prior high once it took out that Collectively the altcoin market was off Of its Bitcoin support level the fact That it took out the prior high now the Prior high back in 2018 was around 50 You know 50 or so I mean if we get it if

We get it exact rather than just be sort Of hand waving it the prior high was 50.68 so once that was taken out it Marked the local top for Bitcoin USD That's what marked it it was when the Local top for Bitcoin dominance was Taken out okay so where are we right now Bitcoin dominance is a 47.78 the highest It has gone so far during sort of you Know these moves or so it's around 48 Right we saw it break 48 a couple days Ago uh so we know it's at least hit 48 Now is that high enough is that high Enough No because in May of 2022 we saw the Dominance go all the way up to where 48.45 so we haven't taken that level out Yet furthermore in July of 2021 we saw The dominance go to 48.92 percent So my argument is that we need to see The dominance break above 48.92 percent So 49 right let's just see if it can get Above 49 and if it can I think it Fundamentally changes where we are Within the cycle there are a lot of People I think that are assuming that The altcoin market is going to take off You know when when Bitcoin is done is Done with its move but history shows us That this is not always the case I think A lot of people assume that's the case Because you know just because normally Ever since 2021 when this happens the

Altcoin market is quick to follow suit But All it would take would be a quick look In the history books at either 2018 or 2019 to show you that just because Bitcoin USD tops out doesn't mean the Altcoin Market's going to run in fact It didn't run in 2018 and 2019 not at Least with respect to bitcoin the Bitcoin dominance continued higher in Both cases after the local Bitcoin USD Top was in the dominance continued Higher in both 2018 and 2019. so whether You want to make the comparison to 2018 Whether you want to make the comparison 2019 the result was the same okay the Result was the you know basically the Exact same so again the argument here is That we need to see the dominance go Above 49 Now 49 might sound like a lot But it's not I mean it's only about a One percent move from here think about This a few weeks ago the dominance went From like 43 percent to 47 in a week in One week the dominant shot up basically Four percent from 43 to 47 in a week Alone so you know to go from 48 to 49 Really isn't that large of a move okay Now where we have to be careful is you Know does it happen immediately or do we Get some type of consolidation first you Can see we had some consolidation over Here uh we had some consolidation again You know it's always possible we see

That further consolidation although my Base case cases probably just that it Continues higher without further Consolidation just because it's hard for Me to often separate What I think is ultimately going to Happen with the path to ultimately get There I think that's probably one of my Uh my deficiencies is is is really Describing the ultimate path I I think I I think it's ultimately heading higher Will it consolidate for a few weeks Before making that move or will it do it Immediately I tend to be air on the side Of it just simply doing it almost Immediately rather than seeing that type Of consolidation but uh of course History does show that you could see Some type of consolidation for a while Before you before you see the uh the Extent of that move but I I think again It's more likely just to see a Continuation of the trend here and a Break Above This level so the key level To watch is 49 if Bitcoin dominance can Break that then I think the meaning of It is that when you know when the market Turns which it hasn't turned yet but if We see it above 49 percent I think that's where you see the altcoin Market continue to get wrecked on its Bitcoin pair okay And I don't say that lightly and you Know I understand that these videos make

Me an easy target for for people that Are you know writing all coins and and Riding the local pumps but I'll show you I'll show you a few charts you know the Reality is is most of the most of the All coins that that people sort of you Know bragged about in 2021 and rode you Know they don't really talk about it Much anymore or when they do they just Measure them off their recent local lows But the reality is that a lot of them Continue to bleed on their Bitcoin pairs Look at Solana Bitcoin okay look at look At this chart really quick What do you notice It's just it it's just stepping down Right you can tell me that it's off the Low all you want but it still doesn't Change the fact that as measured from September the salon of Bitcoin valuation Is down 84 now it's down 84 percent Against an asset that's also down you Know well off its prior all-time high I Mean the prior all-time high for Bitcoin Is almost 70 000 and we're you know We're just below 30k right now so Bitcoin from its all-time high is down More than 50 and despite that the Solana Bitcoin valuation is down 84 against an Asset that also lost more than half of Its market cap that shows you just how Badly Solana has been crushed So yes I mean we can always you know we Can always cherry pick the local lows

Um I know I know that's a frequent thing to Do but for long-term investors you know Looking to get into the altcoin market For me it's hard it's hard to really Make the case when you can see that They're just simply being devalued on Their Bitcoin Pairs and if you want to Make the point that it's down 84 percent Therefore okay well is it is it been has It been devalued enough You could also look at where it was at The recent local low so even if you Cherry pick that 89 percent move to the Downside you think is that enough right A 90 move to the downside that sounds Pretty bad we'll take a look at what Ada Bitcoin did last cycle okay and and We'll try to figure out is it enough Look at what happened to cardano last Cycle Look at this move by the Ada Bitcoin Valuation from its peak How far down did it go This move here was already 90 and it Didn't mark the bottom on the Ada Bitcoin valuation Ada Bitcoin drops 95 So cardano back in 2018 2019 dropped 95 Against Bitcoin 95 now if you look at Solana Bitcoin and say well 95 surely Isn't that bad compared to 89 were Already hit well let's think about it Like this 89 down 89.65 down would it be About 4 700 satoshi's 95 down

Would get you To 2200 satoshi's from the current Valuation that would be another 70 drop On the Solana Bitcoin pair Now that doesn't mean that that would Mark the salon in USD bottom but it can Mark the bottom or at least the Temporary bottom on Solana Bitcoin and And that's the reality is that a lot of People put money in the altcoin market Because they expect the altcoin market To give out size gains compared to Bitcoin but when you're at this phase of The cycle the bear Market slash recovery Year when you're at this phase of the Cycle that's not actually true the Altcoins continue to bleed and bleed and Bleed again and so my argument for a Long time has just been something well If you're going to put money in the Cryptiverse you know I mean not Financial advice right but it would make More sense in my opinion to just put it Into Bitcoin because you can always Convert it to altcoins later and and get More you know potentially more all coins Uh just by converting it later than Putting it in that altcoin right now That has been the argument that we put Forth for a long time and I'm not cherry Picking just two single law coins right I mean this is cardano this is Solana These were some of the major coins that Had major gains in the bull market go

Take a look at Avalanche you know know You take a look at Avalanche what do you Notice it's recently lost its support Level on its Bitcoin pair right This prior support level of around 6 500 Satoshi's has fallen and now we're Putting in weekly closes down here as 6200 satoshi's or so 6100 satoshi's so It's already broken off of its support So if Bitcoin USD were to go down avax Bitcoin doesn't really have anywhere to Hide because it already broke its Support the same thing is true for Ada Bitcoin the support level that it held From May of 2022 until March of 2023 has Broken off so if if Bitcoin USC were to Go down a lot of people might assume oh Well all coins will catch back up on Their Bitcoin pairs I would argue no They broke these critical support levels That they were holding for a long time And there's just simply nowhere for them To hide if Bitcoin USD were to go back Down I think the liquidity is leaving The altcoin market and and it's I think The liquidity the liquidity flow from The Auckland Market back to bitcoin is Also helping prop up the price of Bitcoin go look at at BNB Bitcoin look How quickly this thing is falling I mean look at this move by BNB Bitcoin From as measured from November it's down 44 percent 44 this is a pretty big move if you want

To compare this move by the way to 2019 When did Bitcoin USD Peak it peaked in Late June of 2019 Late June corresponded to BNB Bitcoin Getting around 44 45 under or Devaluation from the from that from that Local high about 44 45 so I mean yeah Could Bitcoin push a little bit higher It could But you can see that the devaluation of The altcoin market I think is a is an Important contributor to the Bitcoin USD To the Bitcoin USD rise we've seen this Many many times and this is why I've Said over and over and over again the Altcoin market is just simply too risky Right I mean yes you can go cherry pick A few all coins here and there that have Done well okay but most of them Continue to bleed against Bitcoin there Are a few that are that have not this is A this is an example of one B and B Bitcoin right but even if you measure it From 2019 over here it still ended up Dropping you know 80 from this level so An eighty percent drop from that level Would put B and V Bitcoin all the way Down you know at less than four thousand Satoshi's by the time you know you get Out another couple of years that still Represents another 66 drop on the BNB Bitcoin valuation between you know Between now and then so You know I

What I've said before I've said many Many times I said this back in 2022 you Know the altcoin market is great in in Certain circumstances but those Circumstances need to correspond to Periods where they're not just Constantly being devalued against Bitcoin because you're taking on more Risk for Less reward right you might say Well what is that risk is it a Fundamental risk well no not I mean it Well it is it is a fundamental risk but I mean there's the quantitative risk Right like just the cyclical risk forget The fundamental risk for a minute we've Seen these things continue to bleed you Know we've seen all coins can continue To put in new lows right you know one of The one of the coins that's popped up Recently is xrp you know go take a look At that one and um actually let me let Me pull it up on a different chart here Look at this one xrp USD yeah it's Popped up a little bit but so what it Did the same thing in 2019 as well and Guess what in 2019 it put in a new low And in 2020 it put on a new low even Though Bitcoin didn't the altcoin market Still put in new lows Ada USD What happened to that yes it had a great Rally in the first half of 2019 but it Still put in a new low in 2020. all Right so the all coin Market can keep Bleeding even if Bitcoin doesn't and if

Bitcoin does bleed then I mean the Altcoin market is is very quick to go Back down because why Liquidity has been drained The they're not they're no longer seen As as likely to outperform bitcoin and Then once you reach that phase of all Coins are dead that's when they've Actually bottomed have they bottomed When everyone is quick to jump back into The recent meme coin you know probably Not right when do they bottom they they Bottom when literally Everyone becomes a Bitcoin Maxi again I Mean this is basically what happened in 2020 early 2021 a lot of people are Calling for the dominance to go to 80 90 Percent you know I think a lot of people Think that I I only call for the Bitcoin Dominance to go higher but if you watch My videos back in in um in in 2019 2020 If you if you think back to the the last Video I made in 2020 it was called Ethereum remember remember the end of December and I said then that the Bitcoin dominance was likely going to go Down a lot because we were expecting Whatever you call it where the ethereum Evaluation outperforms the Bitcoin Valuation by a lot in the first quarter Of 2021 and it did and the Bitcoin Dominance fell off a cliff so we need to Understand that the Bitcoin dominance is A very cyclical indicator and I know a

Lot of people just don't believe in it Because it got rejected off this level Back in the summer at 22. But I would put forth the idea that you Know maybe we had we had this sort of Double Peak cycle that has has also led To this taking perhaps more than just One attempt now is there some level of Of rationalization going on in that Statement I think so uh just being Somewhat self-aware but I also think That just because it didn't work out Back in summer 22 it doesn't mean it's Not going to work out this time Um I I think that you can really see the Altcoin market is leading back to Bitcoin and I think it's likely going to Continue I would like to see the Dominance break 49 and if it can then I Think the next phase for the altcoin Market is going to be quite quite brutal Okay now I want to be clear about Something If Bitcoin USD goes up The altcoin market can still go up on Their USD pairs Kicking and Screaming The entire way right they can go up on Their USD pairs if Bitcoin USD goes up But who cares because if Bitcoin USD Goes up you're still likely seeing the Dominance go up with it so the point is That Bitcoin USD is likely going to Continue to outperform those all coins Even if it goes up and if it can break

49 then you know even if it goes down Yeah I mean it probably doesn't even Have to do that that's just more what I'd like to see but even if it goes down Then theoretically you would see those All coins go continue to go down and Enter into a new regime that a lot of People haven't seen for a while And that is the altcoin market bleeding On their Bitcoin pairs even when Bitcoin USD goes down I think we need to see This break 49 so if you see it break 49 I think we're in a in a new regime of The market cycle okay so let's take a Look by the way at the dominance Excluding stable coins because we you Know we've talked a lot about including Stable coins Um which again I think is a great way to Look at this metric including stable Coins I think is important if you Exclude stable coins what happens The Dominus is already at 52 percent you Know one of the most common forms of Criticism that I've received is that While the dominance put in a new low Over here right you sort of saw a new Low back in in Um in late 2022 That's if you include the stable coin Market but the point of the dominance is Mostly just to figure out what's Outperforming Bitcoin or altcoins not Stable coins right I mean like is it the

Point is to see are all coins bleeding Against Bitcoin and most of them have Been even throughout even throughout This phase of 2022. the way to clean This up is to just exclude the stable Coin Market I mean this is on my website Not trading view but when you exclude The Civil coin Market it's already at The dominance is already at 52 now the Highest it went back in in the summer of 22 was 55.31 so ideally it'd be good to see That level break right 55.31 now if you Apply a moving average to this let's say A 30-day SMA to me it looks like this is Building out a huge base to go higher Now I know a lot of people are calling For the Bitcoin dominance to go higher Now or at least some people are I still Think there's a lot of people that are Calling for All Season to start but you Have to remember that only about six Months ago most people were calling for The breakdown the dominance to new lows Right the altcoin season claws were very Prevalent and and people were calling For 20 to 30 percent back when you know Back when the Dominus was at these Levels and we had the ethereum merge and They were calling for the flipping and All this sort of stuff and and what's Happened since then right no the monies Just flowed back to bitcoin and when you Exclude the stable coin Market what

Happened It's just been one Higher low after Another these higher lows have been Going on since May of 2021. Right I mean that's basically when I became Bullish on the Bitcoin dominance since The middle of 2021 I became more vocal about it you know in Late 2021 but I first started talking About it in May 2021 and in October we Saw the dominance go up and we thought It would but since then it's been Putting in higher lows One could even argue that it's been Putting in higher lows since 2018. okay So you know I I've said this many times Before and I know it's not a popular Thing but listen there's a lot of VC Money that came into the space there's a Lot of of just pumping all coins like Crazy Um whatever it was all this money came In and despite all of that And think about this too and despite the Fact that the stable coin Market took Away a lot of bitcoin's market share The dominance still could not put in a Lower low As measured from 2018. despite the fact That you had all the VC money Despite the fact that you had Celebrities talking about all coins on a Daily race basis

And despite the fact that the stable Coin Market ate up a lot of what would Normally be back in Bitcoin or we just Go back to cash so it wouldn't be count It wouldn't be counted Um because again if you exclude stable Coins the dominance would already be at 52 percent right but and this is where It would have been last cycle right I Mean if it last cycle at the current Level it would already be at 52 which Means it would have already broken out Of this prior local high right but it's Not why because the stable coin Market Has taken up so much of the market share Despite all of that Dominance couldn't put in a new low okay So you tell me right you tell me if if The altcoin market has gained any Grand On bitcoin has ethereum really gained Any ground against Bitcoin in terms of Flipping no it hasn't again it's not a Popular viewpoint but it hasn't it has Not gained any market share you know Compared to Bitcoin in fact Bitcoin has Retained more market share this cycle Than it did last cycle and again you Know don't take it up with me take it up With the data you go take a look at the Ethereum market cap divided by the Bitcoin market cap and what do you see You see a massive distribution phase and I told you guys this back in back in September that this was looking like

Sort of like a double top on the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation right go look At ether Bitcoin and I said back in September this was like a sort of like a Double top a little one-two Punch If you Will not that dissimilar from what Bitcoin USD did Right so if you look at Bitcoin USD at Its secondary Peak what happened you had Sort of like a little one-two punch sort Of finish off finish finish it all off Right one High second high and then it Was down what happened to Ether Bitcoin It was the same thing and you might say It's easy in hindsight well we put out a Video on the day of the merge and said That this is likely this is likely the Top right this is likely just sort of a One-two punch uh in the same way that we Saw with um You know the same thing we saw with Bitcoin USD you sort of had one Distribution phase Right followed by a lull and then sort Of a shorter secondary distribution Phase same thing with Bitcoin USD you Had a longer distribution phase followed By a lull and then a shorter secondary Distribution phase All right And then what happened Right we just ethereum Bitcoin has Mostly just been putting in higher lows Or sorry lower highs lower highs

Lower high lower high lower high Every step of the way you know and every Time I eat their Bitcoin gets a pump Everyone gets all excited and calls for The flipping what happened it just keeps Putting in lower highs You know I I used to be very bullish on The ethereum Bitcoin valuation and you Can go check the receipts back in 2019. In fact the very first video on my Channel okay the very first video is is Literally titled something like ethereum Bitcoin is severely undervalued right Guess when that video was put out September of 2019 that was right here It's the first video on my channel so I'm not a Bitcoin Maxi I just put on my Maxi hat when we're in the phase of the Market cycle that we're in right now and You know the first video on my channel Is talking about how ether Bitcoin Was severely undervalued in September of 2019. you know and I can't look at this Chart in good conscience and say that This is an undervaluation level no it Looks like a very overvalued an Overvaluation an overvalued level look At this this is you know this is the Ethereum Bitcoin price ratio but for People that want to follow the flipping Stuff they need to be looking at the Market cap ratio and for a long time the Ethereum Bitcoin market cap was in fact Putting in higher lows okay and I

Thought it was going to break down here Okay admittedly right the receipts are There I'm not going to hide from them I Thought it was going to break down here It had one last move in it I think it Still was a lower High I mean at the end Of the day it still didn't put in a new High so you could still argue that it Started over here but now it's broken And this is what I've said before the Purpose of Bitcoin USD pumps during this Phase Is to get all Bitcoin valuations off of Their support levels A theorem Bitcoin is now off of its Support level so what happens when Bitcoin USD goes back down I don't know When it's going to happen it could be Next week it could be next month it Could be two months from now I don't Know whenever it happens the argument is That the altcoin market has lost its Support level on their Bitcoin Pairs and Therefore the likely direction is down If you follow the blueprint of Bitcoin USD and because you can again you can See the similarities distribution phase Number one distribution phase number two Summer lull so we'll call this a so one A two Bitcoin USD One a Two Okay what happened It came back down close to this low here

Maybe slightly above it bounced a little Bit and then and then plummeted down Ether Bitcoin I think it's coming back Down here now here's something Interesting that I think is is Worthwhile to point out Look at the ethereum Bitcoin valuation And now overlay Bitcoin USD When we saw a very similar pump okay on On bitcoin USD in a very similar Devaluation on ether Bitcoin look at This move here Bitcoin USD rallied until mid-july of 2018. Ethereum Bitcoin the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation during that Fell from where where did it fall from It fell from about .072 Right here Right there Ether Bitcoin fell to 0.058 during Bitcoin usd's pump 058 After Bitcoin USD came back down and Went sideways eat their Bitcoin fell all The way down to 0.02 okay 0.025 Right now ether Bitcoin is at 0.0638 If it gets to 0.058 That's still another 10 a nine to ten Percent drop on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation Remember When The Ether Bitcoin hit .058 back in 2018 it marked The local top for Bitcoin USD Okay that's what marked the local top so

I think it's worthwhile to consider That Whenever Bitcoin rolls over right I mean It rolled over in 2019 it rolled over in 2015 right the the the the the pumps Didn't last the whole year In 2015 It was basically bull market January February March and and then bear market For the next three months and then bull Market for the next three and then bear Market for the next three after that was An accumulation phase right uh 2019 was Basically bull market for half a year Bear market for half a year okay so I Don't know when it's going to roll over Exactly every cycle is not going to be The same thing but I would suspect that the purpose of what Bitcoin USD is doing right now is to Break ether Bitcoin off of these support Levels okay so I mean if it does follow Um you know what what Bitcoin USD did Then it might mean kind of coming back Down to some of these prior levels right That maybe a slightly higher level Getting another move back up to the Upside followed by a Plunge Into the Depths of the cryptiverse for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation so you know You could see something Um Like this right where it comes back down Moves up a little bit and then sort of

Comes back down into this area I think that's a likely outcome right I Really do I I don't see ethereum Bitcoin Going to new highs anytime soon Now if you want to say that ethereum's Made progress on The Flipping just Because it spent a lot of time at these Levels I would retort and say how can You say that you know I mean in January 2019 the ethereum you know the ethereum Bitcoin market cap or sorry the the Ethereum market share was much more I Mean it in January 2018 it got to like 70 percent of bitcoin's market cap the Highest it got this time was like 55 so It's really not a lot of evidence to Support the idea that ethereum is going To flip Bitcoin it hasn't really made Any progress this cycle okay why it put In a lower high you know I mean it I Mean call it what you want you know but It was a lower high Lower high and this wasn't even the this Wasn't even the peak of ether Bitcoin we Just don't have enough data on this to Actually show you but if you go back and Look at ether Bitcoin It actually went higher in June of 2017. I mean it actually came very close to Flipping Bitcoin here and that's where The flipping talk came into play and to Be completely honest I used to be of the Mindset that it could happen but as time Has gone on I I don't really know that

It's the most likely scenario I mean you Know this is is just one lower high After another right a high A lower high A lower high A lower high That's not really progress right I mean It's not now where it becomes unclear uh Just to sort of cover all my bases Because I'm not uh you know I I would Say that there is still a chance it Could happen I would say the argument is Is between these two ideas and this is The the two ideas that we need to Consider Is ether Bitcoin an oscillator Okay because if it's an oscillator then It you know it basically just means it's Oscillating in this range and this was Sort of the sort of the impulsive Capitalization of it and then after that Impulsive capitalization it's just sort Of in a range right so that's one way to Look at it and the other way to look at It is well what if it's more so Following a logarithmic regression path Like Bitcoin USD is where it's slowly Gaining ground I don't know the answer you know I don't I don't know the answer but I I'm very Eager to find out so what I'm going to Be looking for if which I think is What's going to happen but if this if Ethereum Bitcoin breaks down here I'm

Going to be looking does it hold in the 0.03 to 0.04 range because that's what I'll be coming you know that's where I'll become more interested in ethereum Is does it hold in the 0.03 to 0.04 Range okay which is I think sort of the Minimum level that it actually might Hold Or does it come all the way back down Here okay so if it if it holds up here If it holds up here then you have a case To be made that ethereum is gaining Ground against Bitcoin because you might Well you might say well it's putting in Lower Highs but yeah maybe it's also Putting in higher lows right so it's Going to break out One Direction Eventually whether it's up or down we Don't know but you know that's what We'll have to see but if ethereum's Bitcoin valuation comes back down to These levels then I think at best case You have an oscillator not not something That's gaining on bitcoin okay so you Know I I know there's a lot of people on Twitter and a lot of people on YouTube That are still talking about ethereum Flipping Bitcoin and again I've I've Thought of it as a possibility in the Past myself but the reality is it's Still losing you know it's still losing In terms of putting in lower highs you Know I know people are saying it's Making progress like what progress it

Still didn't go as high as it did last Cycle Um so Looking at the Bitcoin dominance How this you know how this all comes Back in you have to think about it in The context of the ethereum dominance Okay so add-on eth dominance to this Chart and what do you get you get Something that looks like this right and You have sort of the ebb and flow of the Market you have the ethereum dominance Low And then the Bitcoin dominance high and Then you have the Bitcoin dominance low And the ethereum dominance High But crypto is very cyclical right we get Into this phase these phases where up Here no one thinks the Bitcoin dominance Can go down and down here no one thinks It can go up Now we're at the phase where most people Think the ethereum dominance can't go Down and they think that the Bitcoin Dominance can't go up but I'm here to Say I think the most likely direction is Where the Bitcoin dominance comes back Up and the ethereum dominant sort of Comes back down okay that's probably the Most likely outcome and I've said many Times I think the dominance of Bitcoin As crazy as it might seem to a lot of People I think it's gonna it's going to Sixty percent I I really think it's

Going to sixty percent and I also think The devaluation of the stable coin Market cap Is going to have some effect now you Might say what is been smoking and Whatever it is can I have one right We've talked a lot about how the stable Coin market cap has chipped away at Bitcoins at the Bitcoin dominance have We not Talked about it extensively on and on And on right we talked about how well The stable coin at the stable coin Market cap weren't there the dominance Will be at 52 that's what that's what This shows us right 52 is where it would Be But here's an interesting way to look at This So we have again this is my website Bitcoin dominance comparison comparing Including stable coins and excluding Stable coins and what do you notice They're converging They're converging You don't believe me let's add a metric Sorry let's add a formula we're going to Take so we can see dominance without Stable coins is M3 dominant solicitable Coins is M2 take M3 minus M2 evaluate it On a linear scale hide the dominance Hide both dominance look at it they're Converging at one point the difference Between including and excluding stable

Coins of the Bitcoin dominance was all The way up here at nine point six one Percent almost 10 percent that the Stable coin Market had sort of chipped Away at the Bitcoin dominance now it's At less than six percent it's at 5.72 Percent so what does that mean It means the market cap of stable coins The market share of stable coins is Going down Relative to bitcoin right Bitcoin Dominance is going up but it's going up Quicker Then the Dom the dominance including Step or sorry the dominance excluding Stables is going up quicker the Dominance including Stables Look at it like this here's another way To look at it go to you can go to Trading view you can look at this Yourself Usdc market cap plus usdt market cap Plus die market cap plus busd market cap Enter Switch it to a linear scale so you can See what's going on here over the last Over the last um year The market cap of these four stable Coins As measured From you know from basically April of 2022 is down 20 21 so the market cap Of stable coins has been going down Right

It's been going down now some of them Have been going up right Like if you were to take a look at at Usdt the market Cap's going up but is This going up because of because new Money is coming into the space Right is it Or is it going up because the usdc Market cap Is going down Sorry I'm not even sure if I clicked on The right one there So add usdc See Market capital usdc is going down so Yes market cap at usdt is going up but When you add usdc It still hasn't made a whole lot of Progress and when you add Busd market cap You can see that the stablecoin market Is losing market capitalization it's Losing you know market share so one one One one Historical headwind to the Bitcoin Dominance that kept it from going higher Is now a Tailwind because the market cap Of stables is going down They're converging back right so you can Make the case You could make the case that you know These are you know these are um These are coming back in right so let's Go let's go take a look again so let me Go Bitcoin dominance comparison here

So you can see that this one you know This the one excluding Stables has been Going up a lot quicker than the one Including Staples and part of their Reason is because the stable coin Market Cap's going down of course you could Argue that part of that is because People are converting their stable coins To bitcoin but the stablecoin market cap Has been going down for like most of 2022. it didn't just start going down It's been going down for quite some time So that's the argument now Let's think about this for a minute Because a lot of people think that the The the dominance is going to start to Go back down in a sustained way now Again remember it could consolidate Right it could consolidate like this And it you know it's a possibility I Would still argue the most likely Direction is just immediate immediately Up Rather than any type of loan Consolidation but again loan Consolidation Could Happen Um but what's what what's something else We can look at the altcoin season index Take a look at this now It's at 22.92 which means we're in Bitcoin season right that means we're in Bitcoin season right now now take a 30-day SMA of it I you know the video I put out two weeks

Ago I said we're likely going to take Out this low and now we have right we Have Now the 30-day SMA of of the Bitcoin of The altcoin Season index indicator is Now in Bitcoin season And you can see that it's likely just Going to keep going down because You know right now the 30-day SMA of it Is 23.75 But the instantaneous value is 22.92 so It's still likely going down Um and if you look at say this is on the 90-day time frame the 60-day time frame It's at 10.42 the 30-day time frame is Hit two okay so it's still likely going To continue back in look at this this Period here in 2022 of of of the Bitcoin Dominance like or of of uh Bitcoin Season does this look like 2018 to you No it doesn't what does it look like it Looks like 2019 looks like a uh a low And then a slightly higher low and then Back up right a low and then a slightly Higher low it looks like 2019. what did 2018 look like right a move from up here Down a dead cap bounce in the altcoin Market followed by a move into the Depths of the cryptoverse Similar idea right from move up here Back down a little a little move by the Altcoin market just to get people Excited again followed by move into the Depths of the cryptiverse and so I'm

Arguing that this is the phase that We're at where we're likely going to see The Bitcoin season phase last for months Not just because Bitcoin USD is going up But I'm arguing that when it comes back Down And or go sideways probably goes down And then goes sideways I'm arguing that That phase will continue to be Bitcoin Season and the altcoin market will Continue to fall victim to bitcoin and You'll likely continue to see the Altcoin market go down On its Bitcoin pair Again I mean the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation alone right look at the Ethereum Bitcoin market cap It's a basically 0.4 If it I mean if it just gave back half Of this think about how much the Dominance would go up so you know we Have to remember we have to remind Ourselves that that you know the Dominance of Bitcoin is an important Metric because it shows you the risk You're taking on with the altcoin market Okay if you're gonna go out there and You're gonna buy you know an altcoin Whether it's cardano Solana Avalanche Um you know whatever it is right Whatever it is the reason you buy it in My opinion of course a lot of people Disagree and probably most people Disagree but it's my channel so I'm

Gonna I'm gonna tell you my opinion of Course the reason why people should buy Those coins is because they think it's Going to outperform bitcoin but if we're In the phase where it seems like Bitcoin Dominance is going up then it likely Just means that the all coins are going To continue to be devalued on their Bitcoin Pairs and continue to go down Now inevitably whenever I make these Videos at some point in the next few Weeks well you know we'll see we could See all coins pop a little bit against Bitcoin and then that might cause Everyone to sort of question that these Basis but look when you take a step back It's just it's just stair stepping down My friends okay it's just stepping down And you know I I don't really know how Else to describe it Other than to say everyone gets excited On these pumps but what happens it's Just a way to suck in more liquidity To then just go back down and put in new Lows It's the truth That's the truth of the Auckland market And and again the all coin Market as a Whole doesn't typically bottom until Until well after after Bitcoin after Bitcoin has okay or at least you know They could still put a new lows right so One thing I I think we should look at Too

Is the difference between Bitcoin Total two and total three Okay I think this is an important way to Look at the market too so you go look at Coin uh if you look look at Bitcoin What do you notice from this level here It broke out and then it back tested Support right so breakout back tested Support which also of course Corresponded to the the uh the bull Market this is why we talk about the Bull market all the time right it's an Important indicator to look at uh do Note that it also held it over here and And we got to move up and it sort of had A distribution phase I I mean I don't Think that it needs to drop like this Again it doesn't need to drop like you Know 80 or 77 from whatever this level Is but you can look at these sorts of Moves and see like similar ideas right Like is that going to happen in April Where it kind of just comes up into a a Sort of local high we go back down to The back half of the year and then try To and then finally Trend up in a more Sustained way in 2024-2025. this is what History shows us everyone gets ahead of Themselves in the in the prehabbing year Normally it takes until the having year To actually see these moves uh you know Sustain themselves so I would argue that um that Bitcoin USD has shown a lot of relative

Strength right look at Bitcoin USD Broke out held support and then it's Moved back up Now where does this differ Would say the altcoin market or say the Market as a whole look at total market Cap look at this Despite the fact that Bitcoin USD has Broken out right has has completely Broken out from its um you know from its Prior levels and is has gone up a lot Higher Look at total we're still at the at the August 20 22 highs right so we still Haven't I mean I think we slightly went Higher but we still haven't really Broken out so You know you tell me right Bitcoin USD Has broken out but the total market cap Hasn't so what this tells me is that What we've seen so far at least is more So a rotation of money from the altcoin Market to bitcoin Right it doesn't necessarily mean There's been a lot of new money coming Into the space what it shows you is that This has more so been because there's Been a a devaluation of the Auckland Market with respect to bitcoin there's Been a liquidity flow from the altcoin Market back to bitcoin Because Bitcoin USD is broken out The total market cap Has not I'm not saying it can't but it

Has not yet and so this shows me that The money is more so a rotation of of Money from From one sector to the other you know Take a look at it like this right take a Look at at say cardano and look at where It was in August of 2022 right almost 60 Cents And Bitcoin USD was lower than where it Is today now Bitcoin is higher yeah yeah Bitcoin now is much higher than where it Was back in August and Ada is not even At 40 cents look at um Solana USD right Back in August of 2022 it was at forty Four dollars Now everyone's excited about it 21 Solana Bitcoin USD is a lot higher than It was back in the summer of 22. Solana Is not even half its valuation back then Not even half it's it's more than 50 Down These moves by the all coin Market just Suck in more liquidity It doesn't mean I mean look at this Trend right Solana USD this is just Trending down I mean this move here it Was just a this was just mean reversion I mean you know the the trend is down This it sort of came in it came back up It was just a reversion to the meme but It doesn't mean it's not still going Down so Again a lot of the altcoin market take a Look at polka dot you know back in

August 2022 was nine dollars now it's Six dollars Avalanche where do you think that was August of 2022 was 30 now it's 17 Bitcoin USD could could barely break 25k Back in the summer of 22 and now you Have a majority of the altcoin market That can't even come close to breaking Their summer at 2022 highs So this is more so a rotation of the Money in the altcoin market to bitcoin Than it is a representation of new money Coming into the cryptiverse why because Bitcoin is seen as more of a safe haven Than the altcoin market right I mean It's the same thing has happened over And over again in these prior Cycles but Of course you you sprinkle in a few Altcoin rallies and no one wants to Believe it you take a step back and look At the last 12 months collectively and You can see it's just a series of lower Highs on all USD Pairs and it's a series Of lower highs on all Bitcoin pairs as Well now what were we talking about Bitcoin USD broke out Total Still at the same level it was in 2022 Showing it's more so just been a Rotation of capital out of the altcoin Market in a Bitcoin total two by the way What do you think that looks like I mean it's coming into resistance here Now I'm not saying it can't break out

Okay I mean these trend lines are are Ultimately made to be broken and if it Doesn't break it here it'll probably Break it at some point within the next 12 months but imagine if Bitcoin USD Goes down before it breaks out okay What's the point You know Like if Bitcoin rolls over here Total two isn't even about even isn't Even outside of its resistance level Right So if total two can't break out before Bitcoin USD rolls over then think about How weak that is right then the next Support level is back at the recent low You know all the way down here at 430 Billion Whereas Bitcoin you know could could try To even come back in and hold support at The 20 week which I'm not saying that I Would but I could try and it has still Plenty of support levels to try to hold Right because it already broke this Trend line So total two it hasn't even broken out Where Bitcoin broke out long ago What do you think total three looks like By the way if you're not familiar total Is the entire market cap of crypto total Two is everything but Bitcoin and total Three is everything about Bitcoin and Eth and everything but Bitcoin and eth Also hasn't broke out broken out yet

Okay so imagine if if Bitcoin USD rolls Over before total three can break out Right where does it go well I mean the Direction right is down now you should Note That over here The altcoin market Did sort of have a false breakout right So you know it sort of it was resistance Resistance resistance and then on the Fourth try it sort of had a a couple Week breakout and then it was just a False breakout and then it just Plummeted okay so it was on the fourth Try so we are in fact on the fourth try Right now right so one two three and Four so if it's going to If it's gonna break if it's going to Give us a fast breakout I suppose now Would be the time So I think the argument is if Bitcoin USD can go up from here let's say if it Can crack 30k and go a little bit higher Then perhaps total three can break out Of this it still doesn't mean anything At Bitcoin USD rolls over now then total Three can easily come back down to these Levels and if you can go back down to Those levels quickly just because Bitcoin USD rolls over before total Three can break out it shows you why the Dominance of Bitcoin can go up so Quickly so This is a you know I'm very I'm very

Determined for for people to understand The importance of all Bitcoin valuations And don't be distracted by short-term Pumps by the altcoin market on their Bitcoin pairs because reality is that Most of them continue to bleed and bleed And bleed on their Bitcoin pairs right That's the reality of the situation We've seen it time and time again the Last thing I will leave you with is is The stable coin Supply ratio because you Can see that it actually hit the same Level it hit in 2019 and then once that Level came it went down and when the Stablecoin ratio the stable coins Supply Ratio oscillator came back down and it Pumped back up it was a lower high Bitcoin USD put in a higher high so it Showed some level of of Divergence there Right the Civil coin Supply ratio is Basically just a measure of the ability The stable coin market cap to move Bitcoin USD Um And you can see it was a lower high on The on the ssro a higher high on bitcoin USD and then it sort of just bled for The next like nine ten months Bitcoin USD did until March of 2020. Right same thing in 2021 right the high And then you had sort of Bitcoin USD Come back in and then the next move by The stable coin spy ratio oscillator was A lower high during the sort of

Distribution right so you had a Distribution level now we already had This high that corresponded to a price Of Bitcoin closer to like you know Um you know it was back on on March 17th Or so Um around the around that time frame So this is when Bitcoin USD sort of had This initially move to 27 28k so we have Gone higher since then uh but the Arguments is if you see sort of a a move A sustained move in April uh or even Just holding these levels for a little Bit uh it's not necessarily that Dissimilar from what we've seen so I Think that the point is is if Bitcoin USD does eventually or sorry win Bitcoin USD eventually rolls over and I don't Know how long it's going to be or don't Ask me there's plenty of other people You could probably go out so have a Better idea uh but whenever it does roll Over whether it's this week whether it's It's four weeks from now Um whether it's eight weeks from now I Don't really know again in 2015 it Pumped until March in 2019 it pumped Until June okay so you know probably Gonna peek out here between sometime in In April May or June I don't think it's Going to last till June because 2019's Pump started in December so June was six Months this one started in November so May would be six months but you could

Also argue that Um you know that the real move by Bitcoin USD back in in 2019 if you look At say like monthly candles Um you could argue that the real move Started you know right here when it Broke above the 20 weeks of April May And June when it broke about the 20 week Over here it was January February March So again I don't I mean I don't really Have any strong conviction on exactly How long this is going to go I know a Lot of people have different price Levels Um we've talked about sort of the Importance of of you know these rain Range lows here uh We've looked at at Bitcoin USD divided by M2 and and if you Look at that we are coming into some Resistance just a bit higher than where We currently are again the money supply Has gone down Um so that's that's of course hurting Risk assets over the Long Haul if the Money in circulation is just lower Um but you could also I mean I'm not a Big believer in in the The Gap the Gap Theory stuff like if you go look at uh Bitcoin Futures uh I know some people Are are adamant that all the gaps have To be filled and you know we just filled The one here at 29 there is one more up Here in the mid 30s the you know and While it's possible we go there they

Also the the other issue is that there Were a lot of people down here waiting For 90 600 to get filled before the bull Market and I said back over here right If you have I mean this is a great time To DCA I mean I was saying DC this Entire way but when we when we pulled Back to the 20 week back over here I said I was a great you know there's no Reason to wait for 9600 I mean heck it Went to 9 800 and there were still People saying well no wait for it to go 200 lower and then we just went into an Amazing bull market Okay so Yes the gaps can sometimes get filled Just like this one got filled but note That this one here at 9600 did not get Filled so there's no guarantee you have To fill this one now maybe you fill it Now at 35 maybe you fill it in in a year And a half or something you know or two Years I don't know but the point is is Whatever happens the I the ideal Situation is for us to see Bitcoin Dominance go above 49 at that point I Think most if not all or mostly all of The all coin Market are off their Bitcoin support level so when Bitcoin USD comes back in or comes back down the Altcoin market continues to bleed the Dominance of Bitcoin goes to 60 percent Everyone becomes a Bitcoin Maxi and that Is when you can finally buy all coins if You guys like the content make sure you

Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up make sure you check out the Sale on into the crypto versus premium At into the and I'll see You guys next time bye


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