Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we're going to be talking About the Bitcoin dominance if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out into the Cryptographers premium at into the Cryptographers.com let's go ahead and Jump in so the dominance of course is Something that we follow quite closely On this channel the main reason is Because I think that it actually has Very useful information in helping to Better understand where we are within The context of the market cycle and how The altcoin market looks with respect to Bitcoin the reason why the dominance is Important is as investors we must Constantly figure out what sort of risk That we want to take on and the altcoin Market of course is a very high risk bet To take and so when you take it you want To be sure that the dominance is in an Area that would justify it okay so over The last year you might have heard me Say many many times that the altcoin Market will continue to lose valuation Against Bitcoin and the other thing to Consider is that Even when Bitcoin has bottomed if you Assume it's bottomed already it still Can take six to ten months and if it

Hasn't bottomed if Bitcoin USD hasn't Bottomed then that still means the Altcoins valuations against Bitcoin Could go down even longer than that so What I want to do is we're going to talk About the Bitcoin dominance we're going To look at the trends right now we're Going to look at you know the the trends Between alt C's and in Bitcoin season And we're going to look at this without Stable coins and with stable coins and Just try to make sense of what's Happening and then we're also going to Look at two different scenarios for the Bitcoin dominance based on bitcoin USD Okay so the very first thing I want to Mention is that the dominance when you Include stable coins has of course been On a very different path than when you Exclude them okay now the stablecoin Market is an important part of the Overall market cap we know that the Stablecoin market has gained a lot in Popularity over the last couple years And we'll talk about that next but the First thing I want to mention is that When you include stable coins which I Still think there's Merit to looking at The dominance including stable coins I Do think there's still merit to look at It like that I don't think we should Ignore it I just think it tells us Something a little bit different so when You include stable coins you can see

That the dominance has been putting in New lows since May of 2021 right it was Slowly going lower But recently it finally is starting to Change that Trend right it finally put In a higher low right a higher low and Then back above its bull market support Ban now furthermore We saw last week that the dominance came Back down to the bulmark sport band and Of course it makes everyone question Well does that mean that all season is Coming again and a lot of people will Speculate on on these all seasons but The problem is that the market Conditions while alts could still run a Little bit the market conditions for for The Bitcoin dominance really show that Bitcoin is a much better risk reward Play right now now of course the Dominance the the dominance view that I've had for the last year and a half Has been you know has labeled me many People have labeled me a maxian and Whatnot but I assure you that's not the Case Um I just recognize that there's there's Times to be there's times put on your Maxi hat there's times not to and and You know in in Bear markets and even you Know the first six to 12 months after a Bitcoin bear Market it you will Typically see the dominance go higher It's just part of the market cycle that

We have to Um that we have to respect so right now What you'll notice is that the dominance Came back down to the bull Mark sport Band and then now it's sort of blasting Back off right it's sort of blasting Back off to the upside and you might say Well uh blasting back off right I mean It's at 42 percent Who really cares I mean it's been a 42 Forever But I want to show you uh what this Looks like in a different way okay so we Know that when you include stable coins It looks Not that great right like yeah Technically it's been putting in higher Lows but so what I mean the dominance Was at the same level a year and a half Ago and it hasn't really changed when You include stable coins but the reason Why we need to understand the difference Between the inclusion of stable coins And the exclusion of stable coins is Because this doesn't really tell the Full story The dominance being at 42 Percent in January 2023 Is not the same as the dominance being At 42 in May of 2021 most but not all at Least not yet not all altcoins have have Lost on their Bitcoin pairs but a lot of Them have okay a lot of them have and if You go take a look at a lot of all coins Right like like Ada Bitcoin right just

Massive downtrend for a long time and if You want to argue that it's an Oscillator it still has plenty of room To go down to the downside and these Wicks that you see this is a way that Bitcoin sucks back in liquidity that Actually sends Bitcoin USD higher in the Short term and it basically can is a Continuation of the altcoin Reckoning Right so the altcoin Reckoning is Actually in reference to all coins Getting wrecked not only on their USD Pairs but also more importantly on their Bitcoin Pairs and really the only Evaluation that I really care about with Regards to all coins Is their Bitcoin valuation because again As an investor when you put money into The market you have to pick right like Do you want to put it into the Blue Chips uh which is Bitcoin and ethereum Although I still contend that Bitcoin is Is a far better play at this stage in The market cycle but it's not always or Do you want to put it into the altcoin Market which has been bleeding against Bitcoin for quite a long period of time Again you know Ada Bitcoin is down Significantly from the high to the tune Of 72 percent but it could still drop a Lot remember this drop here by Ada Bitcoin was actually when Bitcoin was Going up not down right this one was Going up so the altcoin market can still

Drop well past a a market cycle bottom For Bitcoin so if you think the bottom Is in that doesn't mean that alts have Bottomed against Bitcoin in fact most of Them probably still have a long way to Go down even win the Bitcoin USD bottom Is in and again we could cherry pick I Mean you know there's also you'll you'll Notice that poke has been bleeding Against Bitcoin Um and and so on and so forth right like Solana has been in sort of a macro Downtrend against Bitcoin as well I mean He got popped up recently right but it Doesn't really matter right I mean it's Still in a macro downtrend against Bitcoin and despite the fact that Bitcoin dropped 77 from the all-time High you still see all coins down 70 80 Against Bitcoin which means if Bitcoin Dropped you know 70 80 percent and you Have an altcoin dropping 80 percent Against something that dropped almost 80 Percent itself it just shows you just How badly the altcoin market has been Has been wrecked right Um now there are a few that have not Okay and I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Ignore them right I mean we we know that The ethereum Bitcoin valuation Still Remains at relatively high levels and It's remained at high levels far longer Than I thought it would right I mean I You know I'll hold my you know Hold My

Hand high and say look I I thought the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation was done back In May of 2022. I mean I have a video on It right I mean Um I said back then that I I thought ether Bitcoin was going to go down and it did Right and and I you know I I thought That it was just going to keep going Down and then the merge kind of changed Everything now that could be some level Of rationalization by me I mean it maybe It's the merge or maybe it was just a Lot of excess liquidity in the market uh Far more liquidity than I thought it was Going to than I thought there was going To be but perhaps it should have been Something I had considered more closely Especially with all the money printing That that has occurred over the last Several years and arguably crypto is a Function of excess liquidity in our Financial systems so arguably The ethereum Bitcoin valuation is just Sort of going over Um you know the 2.0 right where where it Actually comes back down Um and uh and probably comes back down To the levels that it that it was back At in in the summer of 2022. it was I I Do think you're going to see the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation come back Down to these levels uh over the next Few months now the thing that I want to

Get back to is we know that most all Coins have bled against Bitcoin but not All of them right I mean ethereum I Don't really consider it at all but it Still it hasn't really bled against Bitcoin it has a little bit I mean again If you if you look for everyone who Thinks that ethereum went up last year Against Bitcoin that's actually not true The ethereum Bitcoin valuation last year Dropped about nine percent right so the Idea that ethereum Bitcoin has gone up Last year was actually wrong but when You look at at the dominance then how do You get a better understanding of of Where the Bitcoin valuations are of all These altcoins when you include stable Coins it doesn't really tell you the Full picture but there are ways that you Can look you know at the at the altcoin Market in a different way and I'm going To look at this on trading view first I'm going to look at it on my website So the the candles that you see so the Candles here are the Bitcoin dominance Right when you include stable coins and This is sort of just one of these Formulas that that takes out a lot of The stable coin market so you can see That while the dominance has gone down Right when you include stable coins but Recently starting to finally go back up When you exclude the stable coin Market From the calculation the dominance just

Continues to go higher right I mean it's Been going higher for a long time and And this is only some of the stable Coins I mean you know it's hard to Capture every every single one and and You know just one trading view formula But it captures a majority of it Um but when you look at this I mean you Can see that it's actually been going Higher on this on this metric since Since January 2022 right so when we Suggested the altcoin Reckoning would Begin on their Bitcoin pairs the Bitcoin Dominance has been going up right and All coins have been bleeding against Bitcoin it's just that when you include The stable coin Market it might give you The illusion that all coins are are Holding up better than they really are Okay so that is I I think really an Important point to remember and not to Ignore it right I I understand there There can be levels of rationalization Of trying to explain why you know why it Wasn't going up when you include stable Coins but it is an important way to look At the market and and it does you know It does really fully reflect the the Devaluation of the altcoin market over The last year to year and a half now if You look at the dominant so here this is The this is what I have on my website Right so if you look at the dominance Including stable coins right it looks

Very similar to what you would see on Trading view if you exclude stable coins Again you can see that it's just simply Been putting in higher lows right and if We go over here You can see I have actually extended out Until 2026 2027 the dominance has been Putting in not only has it been putting In lower Highs but it's also been Putting in higher lows so the higher Lows in this cycle started in in you Know may of 2021 where it had that first Wig down but really it started all the Way back in in 2018 and it's just simply Been putting in higher lows now I do Understand there are several arguments About the altcoin market versus the Bitcoin market and how the Bitcoin Dominance you know a lot of people will Suggest that it's never going to go back Up and and it's just poised to only Crater to the downside in the short term And while that actually might be true Over the next 10 years in the short to Medium term the dominance is still in my Opinion Poise very much to go to the Upside not the downside it doesn't mean That eventually it won't break down say In like a couple more years but in the Short short to medium term I I still Think it's going to head higher and this Is one of these charts that we've Followed on this channel for the Entirety of the year and despite every

Close call by the Bitcoin dominance to Break to the downside and despite a lot Of people calling for the altcoin market To just simply go on another altcoin Season and for Bitcoin dominance to just Plunge to the depths It hasn't despite all the VC money Despite everything despite all the Things that you've seen happen in crypto This year despite all of it The dominance could still not go lower Than where it was in 2018. and it should Tell you something right it should tell You something it's not to say the entire Altcoin Market is useless because it's Not I mean I still think there's Validity to to ethereum and I think There's validity to a few altcoins but a Lot of them are are not going to make it They're not going to survive and again If you don't believe me Look at 2013 historical market cap look At 2017 you're not going to recognize a Lot of these cryptocurrencies the relics Of a prior cycle and the phase that I Think we're in is the still continuation Of the dominance back up to the upside Okay now the other way you know to think About this too is you can take a moving Average of the Bitcoin dominance Excluding stable coins and it really Does look like it's just building out Some type of macro base right like it's Slowly building it out and and a lot of

People have have refused to believe that But it is still slowly moving higher and And you know when you look at the Dominance on the on on here excluding Stable coins it actually shows it's Actually currently around 47 okay so Including stable coins We're at 42 percent okay Excluding stable coins we're at over 47 Now there are some differences between Excluding stable coins or at least some Of them on trading view versus what I Have on on the website but the the Reason for that is just simply because You know various platforms will will Follow different amounts of like Cryptocurrencies and whatnot and perhaps You know I haven't actually fully taken Out all the Staples here or maybe you Know there's there's different nuances To it right but one of the reasons why Um you'll see deviations is just simply Because of of inclusions of different Baskets of cryptocurrency so I don't Actually know all of what trading view Includes but it does give you an idea of Of where the general trend is headed and It might be worthwhile to consider that When the dominance goes up when you Exclude Stables it really does show that That you know that movement to you know To risk off right it shows that movement To risk off better than than it does When you include the stable coin market

And you can also see the um the Divergence of the inclusion and the Exclusion of stable coins right so like If you were to Um so if I go over here and and look at It on on the website and I look at the Dominance with and without stable coins You can see you know how how much is Diverged in in recent years right like It used to be more or less the same and Back in May of 2021 and in January 2022 When I really thought the dominance was Going to go higher I wasn't really Looking at the inclusion or the Exclusion of the stablecoin market Because I didn't really think it was Going to make a huge difference because I got out of the stable coin market Right like I just I I just said hey you Know the stablecoin market I I don't Know you know which ones are gonna are Gonna hold strong throughout the Throughout the bear market and we know That there are some of them have Collapsed right so I didn't really think Too much that the stablecoin market Would have a huge effect but it has Right and you can see there's been a Huge Divergence in the dominance when You include and exclude stable coins Okay Now the other way to look at this is to Actually go take a look at at our season Index indicator so we have this it's

Called altcoin season index but what You'll notice is that we are heading Towards Bitcoin season right so Bitcoin Season is when this was below 25 it Actually dipped below 25 very briefly And popped back up and it got a lot of People to start calling for All Season Again Right these things are they're trapped It's dangerous they're traps they suck In liquidity right again you go look at The chart it sucks in that altcoin Liquidity and it sends Bitcoin USD Higher in the short term now you take a A moving average of say the the season Index indicator and you can see it's Like a 30 day SMA we are still very much Headed towards um towards Bitcoin season It doesn't mean there can't be Short-term movements by the altcoin Market to the upside Um we're not saying that nothing Moves In in any direction monotonically so I Think the general expectation of course Should be that you're going to see Deviations in the altcoin market if you Were to go take a look at total three Which is you know everything besides Bitcoin and ethereum there is still Potentially room for the altcoin market To run before before getting a potential Pullback right so I'm not gonna I'm not Gonna say that the altcoin market as a Whole can't move we know that it could

Right there's certainly a chance that it Could but it doesn't mean that it's Going to outform bitcoin over the next Six to 12 months right and so the other Thing that I want to mention of course Is how all of this relates to to bitcoin USD and there's really two different Ways you can look at this okay and I Mean I'm gonna just be real as real as Possible Right So there's the the bullish way to look At it and there's the bearish way to Look at it all right and I mean I'm not Going to sit here and say that anyone's Right or anyone's not right because the Truth is no one really knows right no One really knows what's going to happen But there's two ways to look at it right So the bullish case the the the the bull Case so if you're a bull on bitcoin USD And you think the bottom is in then the Bull case is that this is akin to what Happened over here right so if you take A look at the 200-day moving average Um you know if you if you take a look at The 200-day Once Bitcoin broke above the 200-day Back in you know back over here in 2019 The the dominance just continued to go Up right so so I'm going to show you why Bitcoin is a great hedge either way Right so like it Hedges both directions Whether it goes up or down whether Bitcoin USD goes up or down especially

If you are eventually interested in the Altcoin market so if you were to take The Bitcoin dominance and overlay it You'll notice that in 2019 when dominant When Bitcoin USD broke above the 200-day The dominance continued to shoot up in Fact it was the second leg of the Dominance shooting up right the second Leg of it so my perspective is that if Bitcoin breaks out above the 200-day You're still likely going to see the Dominance move higher okay and the Reason why that's something you at least Have to consider is from a time-based Perspective you know it ha I don't think It's actually been quite as long so we Have to we have to be a little bit Careful here because if you take a look At um At this top to where it broke out it was 474 days but this top to this breakout Here or not even a picture I mean it's Not even broken out yet it might we Don't know yet is only about you know 428 days okay so we have to be somewhat Careful you can go back and look at at Uh 2015 as well and and what you'll Notice is that from from the 2013 Peak We didn't break out at that level at That 470 level right at 470 Day level it Actually took until 576 days right so it actually took Another several months before it Actually happened so the bullish way to

Look at it of course if you think the Bottom is in is just to say well if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside the Dominance is likely going to go up right I mean that's what we saw last time it's Probably it probably would happen again And you can see that it's happening in Real time right now right the dominance Continues to move higher and it's it's Broken out into a new local high What's the other way to look at it of Course we have to consider the bear case As well a good investor does not just Simply blindly look at this and say Well It has to you know it has to be the Bottom just because of for whatever Reason it we say that it could be but The other way to look at this is to say Well what if we're not as far along and We're not here but what if we're here And that might make a lot of people Raise their eyebrow right and say well How could we only be here when this bear Market has already lasted about as long As this one has right my before I get Too much further my guess is that we're Not here or here it'll be something Different right it's going to be Something different whether if we break Out to the upside it's probably not Going to Rally up another 3x right but If we get rejected Um it that doesn't mean that Bitcoin Then has to drop another 70 right I mean

This after after this rejection here Bitcoin dropped you know 64 my guess is It's going going to be something Different right I mean the history will Not play out in the exact same way But you might you might wonder how could We possibly be here would it not be more Obvious to think we are here and if We're not here then perhaps if we're not Here then perhaps we are here where we Just don't really we get there and we Get rejected and we just kick the can Down the road another half year and then Try again Um which of course is a possibility Right so what is the case at all if any That were here as opposed to here and Again I think it's probably going to be Somewhere in between as my guess but the Case for it is that the dominance is Still is still somewhat low uh therefore And this is this is what kick-started The the major move up by the dominance In 2018 right so if you were to go take A look at where the dominance finally Started to move off of these lower Levels right so you know just sort of Looking at it like this right when did The Bitcoin dominance finally move off Of this level even when you include Stable coins right when did it move off Of this level it was right around this Time right it was right around the time That it rallied up to the 200 day and

Got rejected and the thing to watch for Very very closely and this is going to Be really important for really Understanding where we are within the Market cycle the thing to watch for is Whenever the Bitcoin price gets a Pullback right it'll gonna pull back at Some point I know right now it feels Like it might never happen but at some Point whether Bitcoin pulls back here or Whether it rallies to 20K or 21k or 22k Wherever it pulls back the thing to look For is what does the dominance do right What does it do does it go up does it go Down does it go sideways what does it do My guess is that it goes down the the When when Bitcoin USD whenever it comes Back down my guess is the dominance goes Up okay so when Bitcoin pulls back and Goes down against the US dollar I think The dominance will go up against Bitcoin Are are the I think the dominance of Bitcoin will go up and so if you zoom in On this chart what you'll notice is that The dominance was rallying into the Rejection of the 200-day and right when Bitcoin sort of got rejected sorry right When Bitcoin got rejected what you'll Notice is that the dominance actually Had a short-term pullback so if Bitcoin Whenever Bitcoin gets a pullback it will At some point right the first couple of Days don't really matter because it's Like a knee-jerk reaction look to see

What happens over the next several weeks Does the dominance continue to go up Okay so that I think has me at least Somewhat skeptical I mean I you know the The ethereum Bitcoin Um valuation is is currently at what 0.0739 so it is still relatively High One thing that I was also looking at Recently as well if you are on the Bearish side and don't think the bottom Is in for for Bitcoin if you look at at Ether at the ethereum Bitcoin valuation You'll will notice back over here we Sort of have this trend line right so we Have the first breakout of it the the Test of it the second test of it right And then we had sort of a third test and Then a breakdown what you'll notice is That the first test so a or let me just Say one This was the bull market two right so Two was in December of 2017 which was Just before ethereum had another run Right we know that ethereum had a run in January of 2018. Three Here December 2018 that marked the bottom for Bitcoin USD that marks the bottom right So three four was just before the 2019 Short-term Bull Run and five was after The short-term Bull Run by Bitcoin and The second half of 2019 bleed and that Was my what marked the bottom of the

Ethereum Bitcoin valuation if you go to My YouTube channel the very first video On my YouTube channel that you will find Is right here in September of 2019 and I And in that video I said ethereum's Bitcoin valuation is severely Undervalued right severely undervalued Okay so let's look at the same pattern Right so you have a trend line right you Have a trend line You have uh one right the breakout the Bull market you have two Going into the the secondary phase right I mean again I thought ether was done Against Bitcoin back over here in May I Got it wrong and I I I admit that right I got it wrong it had more energy left In it had more juice left in it I Thought it was done it wasn't uh it Bounced back up What if it comes back down right If it comes back down Three If it's three And if Bitcoin USD comes back down that Can mark the bottom for Bitcoin if the Bottom's not already not already in Right so that's something to consider as Well so I think it's a useful way to Look at the market Um again I mean you know you're gonna Have people wanting to to either call The top or you know call the local Tops On on these rallies you're going to want

To have people call the bottom on some Of this stuff as well Um but the truth is is really at the end Of the day no one really knows we're Just trying to understand the market as The best we can there's obviously I've Explained the bull case Um and the bear case for for Bitcoin USD Right but what do you notice about both Cases what do you notice Whether it breaks out Or whether it breaks down the dominant Should go up either way right that's the Thesis right is that the dominant should Go up regardless of whether Bitcoin Breaks up or breaks down So what does that mean as an investor What does it mean to me maybe not what It means to you but what it's meant to Me over the last year right ever since We we got started in 2022 And I said you know all coins are just Simply not worth not worth the risk Compared to bitcoin what does it mean It just means that all coins I just I Don't think they're I I don't think They're worth the risk at it doesn't Mean that some of them haven't bottomed On their USD pairs right like they could Have but what I'm saying is that I think That Bitcoin Remains the better play in Terms of your risk adjusted return so For the risk you're taking on bitcoin Remains the better play now from a

Fundamental reason why could that be I Think regulations right I mean I you Know Bitcoin isn't going to have the Same type of regulatory scrutiny that The altcoin market has and I think 2023 Is probably going to be a tough year for All coins in the context of these Regulations once we get to 2024 and Maybe even late 2023 I'm gonna take off My maxi hat and I'm gonna I'll probably Degen back into the altcoin market right I'll be right there with you guys will Like me again but in the short term and Over the last year we have outlined why The altcoin market remains very high Risk why the dominance of Bitcoin should And will likely continue to climb higher Under understanding that when you Include stable coins I know it hasn't Really looked that impressive when you Exclude stable coins it's only continued To go up you know for for quite a long Period of time and and it still seems Poised to break out to the upside the First thing to look for is whenever Bitcoin gets a pullback right so Whenever it occurs whether it's now Whether it's next week in three weeks in A month whenever whenever it does occur The thing to look for maybe give it a Couple days because there's always a new Joke reaction does the dominance go Higher right what happens and you can Clearly see that with Bitcoin going up I

Mean the dominance is shooting up so if If we're here the dominance is very Likely just going to continue going up On a rampage for a while and if we're Here the dominance is likely gonna still Keep going up on a rampage for a while So that's my that's my point so right I Mean having you know having a Bitcoin Position is is basically gives me Essentially the exposure to the Cryptoverse that I want right I don't I Don't feel compelled to have positions In all these various all coins at this Phase when when it seems likely that the Altcoin market is is just going to Continue bleeding against Bitcoin and This is why I've maintained since you Know the first quarter of 2022 that if You want to take an old if you if you Want to buy an altcoin right take a cold Shower and reconsider I'm not going to Keep saying that for you know for much Longer because I I know that the further We get into this the further we get into 2023 that that mentality will have to Stop right because the altcoin market Won't bleed against Bitcoin forever well Some of them will but you know some of Them will right some of them will Ethereum is not going to bleed against Bitcoin forever if it does end up going Back down Um so we will I mean of course that Mantra will have to change but that

That's where I stand I hope I've done a Good job of communicating why I I think The dominance is going higher over the Last year I know not everyone agrees With it and that's fine Um but remember it's just an idea right It's an idea and if you have a problem With an idea that's fine But I'm just trying to communicate why I Think it and and where I think it's Likely going to continue heading the Last thing I'll leave you with before we Wrap this up Is the dominance of Bitcoin you'll Notice lower highs you know I've been Talking about these higher lows forever Right we're talking about higher lows You know for a year and a half now Higher lows but also lower highs right Higher lows but lower highs meaning I Think you're going to see the dominance Break up my guess is you'll see it break Up here somewhere in the middle of this Range and then it'll likely Trend down To sideways for a few months probably Before the having and then around the Having or maybe a few a few months Before the having maybe maybe even six Months before the having you'll see the Dominance continue to climb and then by Early 2024 I think you'll see the Dominance hit some type of short-term Local top right and it'll probably come Back down and it might come back up and

And double double Peak like it kind of Did over here right so maybe it doesn't Even make it to the trend line at first And then it comes up and has a double Peak sometime in like late 2024 and then We come back down into a a major alt Season in in 2025. you know and a lot of People have been talking about all Seasons all of 2022 I don't know what All the seasons you guys are talking About I mean it look yes they've gone up Some but these are not it's not all Season in the same way of 2021 right 2021 and late 2020 that was all season Right that was where you had coins going Up hundreds of percent in a week and Sustaining it for months on end the the All Seasons that you see in 2022 where People call out Seasons they're not the Alt seat they're not the real All Seasons right they're just sort of the The echo bubbles of a prior all season In order to get an actual All Season you Need the dominance higher so while a lot Of people are rooting for the dominance To go down I'm rooting for it to go up Because once it goes up it sets the Stage for a real all season and that my Friends is where the real money is made Thank you guys for tuning in make sure You subscribe if you're not subscribed Give the video thumbs up remember you Have into the crypto versus premium at Into the cryptoverse.com I'll see you

Guys next time bye

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