Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we're going to be Discussing the Bitcoin dominance if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse tocom We have Basically been spending the last several Years building out this into the Cryptoverse website where you Essentially have thousands of different Charts on cryptocurrencies equities and The macroverse and I do think it it Provides a lot of information for a lot Of these different sectors I know I Don't really spend a ton of time talking About altcoins on the channel these days One of the reasons of course is just Because I'm in the Bitcoin dominance is Going higher Camp so I would pres I I Would prefer to preserve the Satoshi Valuation of my portfolio just by mainly Just sticking with Bitcoin until loer Monetary policy arrives and then kind of Seeing which ones are are sort of Holding up but Um just know that there is a lot of There are a lot of charts on the website For for the altcoin market even if you Don't see me talking about them recently On on the YouTube channel now I know

Full well that by making a Bitcoin Dominance video right now it is kind of Risky especially given the theoretical Imminent approval of a spot ethereum ETF Right I get that and again I don't make These videos to tell you what I think's Going to happen tomorrow I make these Videos to think about you know this is Where I think the General market Direction is going of course it's going To be likely be a stochastic process to Get there I also said you know Repeatedly that I ultimately don't think The spot ETF for eth will necessarily Keep the eth Bitcoin valuation um um From you know from from staying at Relatively low levels and I know there's Going to be a lot of criticism for that And I I mean I can deal with that it's Fine but if you think back there's been So many narratives that have been given Out over the last few years as to why The eth Bitcoin valuation would never go To even the current levels that it's at Right if you out someone back in 2022 When eth Bitcoin was point was at .008 If you told them that it was going to go Down into the mid 04s by 2024 they would have laughed at You because they said deflationary Tokenomics and you know this transition From proof of work to proof of stake at The end of the day I don't have any Issues with theum I I think that it's

Likely going to do well in the future my Only my only thought process as it Relates to the eth Bitcoin valuation is That we had these narratives about the The transition from proof of work to Proof of State On this deflationary mechanism Theoretically causing the ethereum Bitcoin valuation to quote quote unquote Hold up well and that didn't play out Right and so it it sort of gave us a Glimpse into the idea that hey maybe This is more about monetary policy than It is about anything else and so I I Just want to remind people that yes the Spot ETF for eth is launching soon more Than likely but I still want to go Through a scenario that maybe a lot of People aren't actually considering okay Um so the first thing let's do is let's Just see where Bitcoin dominance is Right so as at the time of this video It's at 54 and a half per. which is Remarkable considering how fearful People are about Bitcoin dominance right Now I mean I've seen a lot of people you Know basically give up on it but in Reality where it is right now is Basically where it was struggling to Break through for the better part of Half a year if you look at this chart You will see that Bitcoin dominance had A really hard time breaking through 54% In any durable fashion every time it got

Close it was just a wick and of course That Changed right before the Havoc which is When we said we would likely see another Spike in Bitcoin dominance and you can See that after the having Bitcoin Dominance has held at 54% furthermore not only has it held at 54% but it is still trending above its Bull market support band which again Consists of the 20we Ese and the 21 EMA Now instantaneously it is below the 20we Moving average if you look at the 20we Moving average Bitcoin dominance it's at 54.5 n% and we're currently at 54.5 1% The 21e EMA however is at 5 4.38% which is slightly lower than at Least the time that I'm making this Video do note that while Bitcoin Dominance has spent the majority of its Time trending above the bull market Sport band since late 2022 there have Been a few instances where it actually Did go slightly below it for a you know A few days maybe a week or so but mostly It has just trended Higher so I want to think about where is Bitcoin dominance now 54 12% but what is The argument for it to go higher right And I think some of the best Arguments For it to for that that people might Give for it to stall out and honestly I Don't even know if I've seen a lot of These arguments uh Quantified I just see

People say things based on on what Happened last cycle but one of the Things that you could argue is a Headwind for Bitcoin dominance I do Think it will overcome it let me be Clear but one thing that you might say Is is something that it's going to to Struggle with is just that seasonality Aspect if you were to look in fact at Say 2024 Bitcoin dominance let's not Even look at 2024 just look at 2020 and 2016 you can see that kind of around These summer months the Bitcoin Dominance hasn't really done that well Right it really hasn't but look at 2024 This is dominance without stable coins I Mean you you really can see that it has Trended higher for basically the entire Year again and this is dominance Excluding stable coins it's been putting In higher lows essentially all year long Um and if you look at at other examples You can see that there were periods in Sort of the first half of the Year where It was putting in higher lows but it was After a massive sort of drop by Bitcoin Dominance early on whereas this time the The drop by Bitcoin dominance at the Beginning of the year was actually Relatively muted you see that it wasn't That big of a drop so I'm not suggesting That there can't at all be any type of Pullback by Bitcoin dominance right I Mean you can even see that around this

Time there there can be some weakness And that would actually correspond it Was line up very well with the launch of The spot e ETF right but in the same way That there was weakness back over here By Bitcoin dominance in Prior having Years you can see that this having year That weakness by dominance was a lot More muted right it wasn't nearly as as As weak as it normally is in the early Part of the having year and so while Again there could be some weakness Around this time um you know sort of That that July you know June July time Frame at least by looking at prior Having years even if there is um you Know I would still assume that it it Will likely Trend back up in the fourth Quarter of the year you see that you What you'll notice is that in the last In the last couple of having years Bitcoin dominance I mean look right now It's on what what day number we're on Day 192 right now so if you look at at At prior years you can see a local low Was found on day 215 in in the 2016 Cycle uh if you look at the the the last Cycle 2020 you can see a local low was Found on day 246 so I think there is a Case to be made that whatever pullbacks There might be will likely be over Sometime in the next month or so Okay and I say that not just for Seasonality purposes right again if you

Look at seasonality of Bitcoin dominance It looks like you know there's this Weakness there's this vulnerability by It in having Years basically around around this time Which again everyone's going to just Look at the spot ETF and say that's the Reason right but it's normally trending Down at this Point for at least a few Weeks but as I said Previously the Weakness that you saw in the last two Having years by dominance we haven't Really seen that this year in fact in Prior having years dominance excluding Stables barely stayed above one in terms Of the ROI from the start of the year right if You if you look at both the prior having Years they essentially sold off right Immediately this was a concern I raised Last year but I said despite that I I do Think that it will Trend higher because Of monetary policy I think a lot of People think it all just has to do with Sort of like the having and that every Having year dominance goes down but look At this you can see that that has not Been true this having year it really it Really justifies why talking about Monetary policy is important despite the Fact that the last two having years Dominance was trending down a lot in the

First you know few months That didn't really happen this year Still suggesting the monetary policy Actually plays a much more important Role than perhaps people are willing to Give it credit for now here's where it Gets interesting and Again I I have talked about this a Thousand times but I I think this is Where it gets interesting because There's a Ton a ton of Confluence behind the idea of dominance Starting to go back up at especially as We get out into like the August September through December time frame Okay so first of all by that August September time frame I imagine if the Spotf does launch between now and then Which I assume it will I honestly have No idea I haven't really been following The news but you know I was listening to People about it a few weeks ago and Everyone was telling me it was going to Launch on July 8th well July 8th came And went and of course you're still no ETF I am confident that it will probably Launch soon but you know I don't really Think anyone knows exactly when when It's going to launch um other than maybe Just a few days in advance right you Know predicting it out of several weeks Is very difficult as as people show us But what I think is fascinating about it

Is that there is this huge Confluence About not only seeing strength by Dominance in you know really starting From day 240 you know from like the 200s The sort of the load of like 2 215 to 246 into the year days into the year We're currently at 192 so basically just Like 3 to 6 weeks Out not only do you see dominance really Start to go parabolic in Q4 but look at this and I hope you are Holding on to your hat because last Cycle we saw dominance we saw all Bitcoin pairs Collapse right here in June of 2019 now You might be thinking what has been Smoking you know what the hell does that Have to do with the having year because He's over here talking about what Happened in the preh having year of the Last cycle so whatever he's smoking Maybe I want two of Those how can this be the same how can It possibly be the same my point here is That there's a lot of Confluence because Not only do you have favorable Seasonality for Bitcoin dominance Excluding stables in Q4 and again I mean You know if you're if you're thinking About this right now like we're in Q3 I'm not saying that it has to go Parabolic right this second okay I'm Saying look as an investor you want to Be prepared for the next move right you

Don't want to be planning out what's Going to happen tonight at least that's Not what this Channel's for and if That's what you're doing if you're Trying to use this channel to figure out What happens tonight I you I got news For you you on the wrong Channel I can Guarantee you I'd be losing money if I Were day trading especially day trading Crypto okay so the Confluence is this Is that in Q4 of having years we have Seen dominance go Up both times the thing is is the last Two times they went up it was from a Much lower Level what if Bitcoin dominance doesn't Go down to these levels like what if it Just kind of stays up here and then you Get a Q4 rally but from a much higher Level than it normally is at at that Point in the having year that's how you Could see the Bitcoin dominance go to 60% but again the Confluence is not just Looking at what happened in 2016 and 2020 and saying oh it's a having year it Must go up in Q4 the Confluence is Saying look we can tell that in 2024 Monetary policy has played a crucial Role in keeping the Bitcoin dominance Elevated longer than it normally would Be and the Confluence is that last cycle We saw all Bitcoin pairs Capitulate one month before the FED cut Rates all Bitcoin pairs had their first

Monthly close below the range low that They had set about a year before their First monthly close below it in June of 2019 and then it was in July that the FED cut rates was in July fed cut Rates you can see that there was Actually the prior month there was a Wick below all the prior Wicks but it Didn't actually get that monthly close Just like last month there was a wick Below all these other prior Wicks but it Didn't actually get that monthly close Below now that does not mean that this Is the month where we have to see the Monthly close below it could be it could Be but we're already almost halfway Through July and we're still you know We're still seeing all Bitcoin pairs Hanging out at around4 point4 41 uh did They go as high as point they haven't Gone as high as0 42 this month they last Month they went to 043 um but again the Confluence is that well first of all Like this this process here didn't take As long as this one's been taking right Here okay it's just been taking a lot Longer for it to play out but what I Think is fascinating is that if you go Look at at this chart or not this table CME Group probabilities for Cuts right And again these guy these probabilities Have been pretty wrong for the last few Years and I was I was very much adamant

We would be at 5 a half% and that we Once we got to 5 a half% we would stay There for a long time before the FED cut Rates but if you look at this the market Is saying the First Rate cut is going to Be in September 71.8% chance of a rate cut in September why is that interesting well Last cycle all Bitcoin pairs broke down One month Before the First Rate cut one month now September one month before September is Coincidentally August right August which Coincidentally is right around the time That Bitcoin dominance starts to pick up Pick pick itself up by its bootstraps And starts to gear up for the final move Of the year because again you know let's Just just let's just think about this For a minute it's it's we're day 192 Right now you can see that in 2016 there Was a local low found on day 215 right I Me that's only three weeks from now Right three weeks from now which is in August and again that is when all Bitcoin pairs might Capitulate one month before the First Rate Cut I think it's fascinating I mean There's all this Confluence for it There's a ton of Confluence I mean you Have you have the having year Q4 Seasonality for Bitcoin dominance

Coupled with rate Cuts likely coming by September So you still might have this Move right you still have this move Theoretically that needs to happen well It's a market there's no such thing as Needs to happen it's just that and again I've received a lot of criticism for This over the years as well but you know I I think I'm actually approaching a Point where I don't really care about These you know these opinions that People put out about my views on all Bitcoin pairs because the reality is I've been I've been very I've been very Very clear in my stance with all Bitcoin Pairs for years very clear and it's been Very easy for people to mock it and and For people to cherry pick a certain Altcoin at a certain time and say like Look how crazy this is but the reality Is that that all Bitcoin paays just put In a new low last month so everything I've said about all Bitcoin paays for This entire Saga has not been wrong it's Been true they have been they have just Continued to bleed it's just a lot of People don't really have the patience For it right if it doesn't happen Tomorrow they don't want to hear it um But I just think there's a lot of Confluence here in in the idea that you See year toate Roi of Bitcoin dominance Excluding Stables starts to go

Up basic Day 230 240 and we're already you know we're Only a week away from day 200 meaning sometime in August September I I think we'll start to see the Bitcoin Dominance really start to expand again To the upside now that's I think that's Really a lot of interesting Confluence Right the having Year and interest rate Cuts we saw them we saw all Bitcoin Pairs break down one month before rate Cuts there's more Confluence it's not Just rate Cuts it's also Q okay so when You look at QE if you're looking at say Like total assets held by the Federal Reserve the balance sheet if you're Looking at the balance sheet of fed last Cycle we saw we saw all Bitcoin pairs Bottom out right around the Time right around the time that that the FED went from QT quantitative tightening Right here this purple line to QE Quantitative Easing now we still haven't seen that Transition yet from quantitative Tightening to quantitative easing they Have L up a little bit right they They've they've reduced the pace that They they're taking assets off their Balance sheet but it is still Technically going Down right it is still technically going

Down and so until that actually changes My bias is going to remain that all Bitcoin shes are going lower regardless Of the direction of Bitcoin USD that is What my bias is going to be because my My my view is just simply based on Monetary policy as it relates to all Bitcoin pairs it's nothing personal with The altcoin you know I've had altcoins Um in my portfolio many many times in The past and I I I mean I still have you Know some some bags left over from prior Cycles I just I as I've said for the Last several years I think it just Makesense to focus on on bitcoin during A Bitcoin dominance rally I can Sympathize with people who who maybe Bought an altcoin and that altcoin is up A lot looking at this video and thinking That it's completely ridiculous that I Discount that altcoin and I I I I just Rule it out I'm not really but I I think For every person that thinks that if you Stay in crypto long enough I think a lot Of you will actually come to a very Similar view as me it just takes takes a While to get there because the longer You're in crypto the more you just get Tired of all the you know of all the Scams and the rug pools and all that and You kind of recognize that yeah like you Can make money in the altcoin market There's certainly a lot of money to be Made there but there's also some peace

Of mind associated with just kind of Sticking with Bitcoin especially in Bitcoin dominance rallies right Especially now you could make the case That when QE returns and Bitcoin Dominance is is potentially topping out And starting to turn back the other way Then you can make the case all right Well now you can increase the Sato Valuation of your portfolio potentially By riding some of these altcoins that Are drastically outperforming Bitcoin But you can't really say that over the Last few years unless you cherry-pick Some altcoins because again a majority Of them have blood against Bitcoin it's Just that we we cherry-pick which ones Are outperforming to sort of make the Case against it so not only do you have And by the way Powell came out today Today cuz he was doing Congressional Testimony and he said today that they Have a long way to go for the balance Sheet run off you know they have a long Way to go suggesting that all Bitcoin Pairs still are are likely going to Bleed for a While so there's another piece of Confluence right and I'll try to do this Video again on bitcoin dominance a month From now because about a month from now We should start to see it really gear up And go the other direction like you know Start to go back to the upsite I think

Um that's not the only piece of Confluence right you do of course you Have the seasonality in the having year In Q4 Bitcoin D it really it starts Before Q4 right really starts before Q4 You have that Seasonality you have rate Cuts likely Coming in in September last cycle all Bitcoin pairs broke down one month Before that would mean they break down Starting in August you have QE to Q or the Transition from quantitative tightening To quantitative easing until that Transition occurs Bitcoin dominance I Think will go high So you have three different things just Right there right just right there the Other piece of Confluence that you have As it relates to bitcoin dominance is is The social risk right so if you go look At the social risk it's currently right Around that 0.1 level right and last Cycle as it came back down and sort of Just hung out at these lower social risk Levels again that's ultimately where Bitcoin dominance ended up topping out But it took a I mean it took a while for This process to play out and the reason I say this is is is one way to measure Where Bitcoin Dominus is going to go how How do you see Bitcoin dominance go down You have to have an influx of of retail Investors

Right and you can see that on the social Risk but we're not seeing that right and We haven't seen that we basically just Saw a long grind down and then now we're Sort of in this phase over here we Haven't reached the other side last last Cycle social risk did not go up durably Until after the fed pivoted from Quantitative tightening to quantitative Easing right that's when social interest Started to go back up again and you Might think well why does this make Sense like why do people wait for that I Think a lot of people you know the People Watching you know a one or two hour Video on bitcoin dominance or if you Have the time if you have the freedom to Do something like that the I don't want To call it luxury cuz it's not really I This is not really that luxurious to Just sit here and listen to me give a TI Boring lecture on bitcoin D especially When you already know I'm going to say But if you think about it there's a good Chance that if you're watching this You're in a very different position than Than millions and millions and millions Of other people that might be crypto Investors sort of like you know Passively or they they sort of buy some When they can they're not like you They're not just over here you know Researching all these you know all these

DJ plays and whatever it might be They're just the person who hey when They have some cash every once in a While maybe they maybe they put some Into the cryptoverse but as long as Monetary policy becomes more and more Restrictive those people that do that They become fewer and fewer and Fewer and the people that stick around Are basically the just people that you Know we're here from the from day one Anyways the bitcoiners and that's why That's another reason why Bitcoin Dominance goes up if people aren't here To buy the altcoin bags then Bitcoin Dominance goes up because Bitcoin just You know there's there's only one Bitcoin there's you know tens of Thousands of altcoins and I've heard a Lot of people tell me that you know Because there's more and more altcoins Bitcoin dominance they say it has to go Down guys just because you know just Because You the how how do I say this Metaphorically right like the there's Only still there's only so many pieces Of the pie right just because just Because you add more altcoins doesn't Mean there's more money going into those Altcoins you're just basically diverting Money that would have gone into other Altcoins into new altcoins Right but a lot of the money going into

Bitcoin doesn't get diverted into an Altcoin just because new altcoin is is Is minted by a seventh year a seven a Seventh grader who decided to create a WordPress side and and and make a funny Name for their for their meme coin right The money going to bitcoin isn't going To be swayed by that the money going to The altcoin market might be swayed by That but if you look at Bitcoin Dominance and you overlay it with social Risk right here's the um let's go over To the workbench here and look at at at At Bitcoin dominance we're going to look At it without stable coins and we're Going to add on here the um uh the Social risk right so if you look At um let me see how I can find I'm Trying to remember where we put it maybe It's here yeah here it is social Risk so you can see like that that Dominance excluding Stables just Trends Higher as social risk is low right and So that's why that's another area of Confluence that social risk RIS has has Really been struggling and if you go Over and look at a lot of the different Social risk metrics like like like you Look at YouTube views to a lot of these Different crypto YouTube channels they Haven't really been doing that great Recently it's not that they're they're Hurting you know it's just that they're More like it if it ever loads right it

It's more so that they're just at like Background noise levels right this is Like background noise this is basically Like oh the same the same you know 800,000 people that are watching these YouTube channels that were watching it Last year they're watching it this year But you're still not seeing that influx Of of new people right you still haven't Seen that yet and how do you see that Before rate Cuts arrive you probably Don't YouTube subscribers you know to Those same YouTube channels it's a very Similar thing right again it doesn't Mean that you know occasionally there's Not upticks in in in you know YouTube Subscribers to these YouTube channels It's just that it it it's really hard to To get people to you know to to follow Crypto and and all this other stuff when They're having trouble just paying their Bills right they or or or if if if all If their altcoin is bleeding maybe your Altcoin is not bleeding against Bitcoin Or the US dollar but there's a good Chance their altcoin is maybe that's how We can phrase it it's not your altcoin That's bleeding it's someone else's um But I mean you can see that you know It's still relatively Low so there's this other area of Confluence look at this I find this kind Of interesting this is Bitcoin dominance Excluding stable now if you look at this

If you look at this when we first had This basically this selloff of dominance Back in 2022 going into the merge it it Kind of bottomed out right here our First like major low in August and then You can see how many weeks did it take Even though dominance excluding Stables Was slowly trending up how many weeks Did it take before it got a massive Break to the Upside 31 Weeks 31 Weeks now look at this sort of selloff By dominance right here December 2025 Dominance excluding Stables guess what It's been doing the same thing it did Back over here right generally trending Higher you see the comparison it's Almost it's actually almost Identical how is it Identical first it sells off below the 20we SMA see that it then gets back above it And then sells off again right there Right gets back above it and then sells Off again then it gets squeezed between This trend line and the 20we SMA and Then eventually it's forced to go up the Reason it's forced to go up is because Monetary policy is still restrictive so That's the bias that it's going to go It's just going to keep tring Higher as it gets back above It it then comes back down holds it as

Support just like it did right Here it then gets another bounce up but Then it comes back down and holds it as Support again Just like where we are right Now 31 Weeks from December 25th of 2023 is the week of July 29th the week of July 29th which is only A few weeks from now right which guess What it's right before the July the week Of ju July 29th includes August why is August important August is important Because that's when Bitcoin pars broke Down last cycle as it relates to Monetary policy one month before the First Rate cut right that's when they Broke down and that is when this chart Would say that you're likely going to Start to see another move up by Dominance it could be as early as August I I really do I mean I I I really Do feel a lot of conviction about this And I have for a long time and you know If you look at at if it makes this move To the top of the trend line up here If we get a a price Label that's about 624 right I mean it's Currently about 15 59 this is excluding Stables so excluding Stables is already At 59% to the top of the channel that's Another 5% right well if you add on 5% To bitcoin dominance that basically gets You to 60% including Stables now the

Other reason why I think 60% is a Milestone that can be achieved if you Look at at the FIB retracement stuff uh Of Bitcoin dominance you can see that Last cycle from the breakdown point it Actually retraced to the 618 now if you take the same thing from This cycle from the breakdown point the 618 happens to be Precisely 60% so then the Question if we agree which we probably Don't right but let's just suppose it Does go up which again there's no Guarantee that it does maybe I'm wrong I Get things wrong all the time and if I'm Wrong about this it'll just be one more Thing I'll I'll add to a very very long List but if we just suppose for a minute That Bitcoin dominance goes to 60% the Next task is think figure out when is it Going to happen Okay because just Because altcoins break down in August Potentially one month before the First Rate cut which by the way there's still No guarantee they're going to cut in September so there's always a chance That altcoins don't break down until you Know October because maybe rate Cuts get Delayed until nov That's an option as well right that's an Option but let's just suppose that the View is is correct and that dominance Will go to 60% it's just a matter of

When then where will we be looking my First candidate for that is September I honestly I I don't think It's going to make it to 60% as early as That but I think it could get to like You know back up to 57 58% as early as September October the reason why I say September is because there's this thing About Bitcoin dominance where it Trends Whatever not it doesn't Trend down or up In in terms of September wherever it's Going before September it reverses Course in September so like in 2023 we saw Bitcoin dominance trending Down into September and then in September It reversed course in 2022 we Saw Bitcoin dominance trending down into September and then in September It Reversed course we could keep going guys In 2021 it was going down into September And then in September It reversed course In 2020 it was going down into September And then in September It reversed Course keep going right 2019 here's Where I'm going to catch you off guard 2019 it was going up into September and Then September it reverse course it Doesn't matter which way it's going Before September it's just that whatever Way it is going it tends to reverse Course 2018 it was going up into September and

Then It reversed course 2017 it was going down into September And then It reversed course and had a Had a Q4 rally do you see the point Whatever Direction Bitcoin dominance is Going going into September it then Reverses course so here's where it gets Interesting and I don't I'm not 100% Sure about this but but here's an Idea right now Bitcoin dominance it Depends on how you look at it right if You look at dominance like I do over a Long scale I mean it's just been going Up right I mean look at this move I mean It's just been going up like who who Looks at this and says the Bitcoin dius Has been going down in fact if you put On a monthly ha Kinashi uh monthly hi kinashi candles They've been green since December of 2022 and there have been people that Have faded this entire move Thinking that they were right about Altcoins but in reality Bitcoin has just Outperformed the majority of the altcoin Market now you see that Chart every single monthly ha kanashi Candle from from now until December 2022 Has been Green but here's where it gets a little Tricky in the short term while Bitcoin Dominance has been going up right in the Short term you could make a case that It's it hasn't really been putting in

Higher highs since April right so what If it's just kind of slowly fading into Into September and then in September it Reverses course now wait a second how Can that be like how can that be what's Been smoking now a minute ago I said That all Bitcoin pairs are likely going To break down in August because the FED Might cut rates in September well There's two counter points first Counterpoint I don't know if they're Going to cut cut in September may they Don't cut till November they don't cut Till November then perhaps all Bitcoin Pairs break down in October meaning September would be the Time that all Bitcoin pairs would Actually break down instead of August okay that's one option that's Option One option two though is a little bit Different okay option Two this is a this is a weird thing okay And I I'm not coping Well maybe I am but look at this Bitcoin Divided by total so if you just take Bitcoin divided by total market cap you Just get Bitcoin dominance right it's Rounded right it's only I only have it Out to two decimals here which is why It's showing 55% instead of 54.525961 Excluding eth we're pretending like eth Doesn't exist for a moment which again It does and I I do think it's it is the

Second you know best after after um After Bitcoin in terms of like your risk Adjusted returns in the cryptoverse but When you look at it like this it tells a Slightly different Story what story is that you could ask Well if you include eth Bitcoin Dominance hasn't actually put in a new High since April if you exclude eth from the Calculation dominance just put in a new High last Month now think about that for a minute How does that work how how how can that Possibly work how can dominance Excluding e put in a new high but Dominance including eth does not well It's because alts have been bleeding Against Bitcoin but they've also been Bleeding against Eth and because eth went up against Bitcoin and eth is a higher market cap Than a lot of the altcoins by a lot I Mean all Bitcoin dominance did not p on A new high even though even though Bitcoin dominance including eth did so Therefore you could have a scenario Where altcoins break down in August or They start to break down in August but It might not be obvious on the Bitcoin Dominance chart by Itself because eth Bitcoin still hasn't Thrown in the Towel now remember last cycle eth

Bitcoin dropped durably below the range Lows one month after alt Bitcoin pairs Dropped below the range lows alt Bitcoin Pairs durably dropped in June of 2024 One month for rate Cuts eth Bitcoin Didn't drop durably below the range low Until the month that rate Cuts Occurred until the month that rate Cuts Occurred if Bitcoin dropped Below in July all Bitcoin pairs dropped low in June so what that could mean Is that you know you could still have a Situation where altcoins are Capitulating against Bitcoin starting in August potentially but they're not yet Leading to a much higher Bitcoin Dominance durably simply because eth is Still as they Say say it with me holding up well right As they say because it's holding up Well but we know that last cycle eth Bitcoin broke down one month after alt Bitcoin pairs did so if alt Bitcoin Pairs break down one month before rate Cuts and rate Cuts occur In September that means that you might Have all Bitcoin pairs breaking down in August but eth Bitcoin might not break Down until starting around September here's very good it's Interesting hold on to your hat Again we've done a lot of comparisons to 2019 right a lot of comparisons and you Know in 2019 eth Bitcoin broke down in

July right broke down in July in fact it Was actually looking really similar for A while right I mean you had you you had This sort of this January February top Just like here January February top then You had a May top just like this may top But the issue is that by this point in 2019 eth Bitcoin was already back at the Range low it's not at the range low Right now right the range low is about 0049 and it's not there I mean it's Obviously gone below that but it's not It's not quite there so then we roll Back the clock a little bit more and we See another example in 2016 which Happens to be a having year for Bitcoin And what happened then what happened Then is actually a lot more similar to What's going on now with the Bitcoin Where it basically had a fake breakout Below the low in the summer of 2016 just Like eth Bitcoin had fake out below the Low just before the summer of 2024 now when this happened you can see That eth Bitcoin had a very sharp move To the Upside after that false breakdown you See that a very sharp move and then it Basically spent from that point if you Take a a a date range on this right it Basically spent from that Wick back Up 13 weeks in this range and then it it It ultimately rolled over after it Wicked above that initial Wick up see

That when did that Wick up occur you're Not going to believe it Guys September the week of September 19th the week of September 19th why is that interesting why did eth Bitcoin start to roll Over why could it roll over this time Around that same time Fed m lower rates July 18th now this a different year this Eight years before but you see this September 19th go to this Time it'd be right here right either you Know around this the week of September 16th the week of September 23rd Somewhere in There it's I mean it is what it Is but I could see that playing out Right where all Bitcoin pairs break down In August and then people and then People are like oh well Bitcoin Dominance still isn't going down but the Reason why Bitcoin dominance or or it's Not going up the reason why Bitcoin Dominance might not be at where they Wanted it to be even though all Bitcoin Pairs are breaking down is because e Bitcoin is still as I say quote unquote Holding up well but then what happened Then what happened what happened after After September you had that Q4 seasonality by Bitcoin where Bitcoin starts to do

Better than the than the altcoin market And then look at what happened to eth Bitcoin from September until December it Bled see it bled and then it bottomed Out the very end of December and then in The post having year you see what Happened So you could have a Scenario where Bitcoin dominance Could be Interpreted as sort of you know going Down into the August September time Frame because it's already been putting In you know it's already been putting in Lower highs right this is this is Similar to what we've seen previously Sort of going into that September time Frame I think a lot of people think like This is this takes a long time but it Really does I mean like you know it's Only you know September is only about a Month and a half from now it's not Really that long um but you could have a Scenario where all Bitcoin pairs are Breaking down in August but because e Bitcoin still hasn't broken down itself The dominance while it might still be Slowly trending up it isn't like durably Above the prior highs again look at Dominance excluding Stables it's it's Still slowly trending up it's just Taking it's kind of like it's kind of Like where it was back over here in February

2023 Right that's where it is it's kind of Like you know just in this range holding Support at the bullmark sport band but The main reason it's going you know it's Not going up more is just because of eth Bitcoin now there's a lot of other Metrics that we've talked about a lot That I think are relevant one of which Is usdt dominance which I was I gave out Plenty of warnings back in March I said Look guys you have Confluence here I Know everyone was bullish at 73k and the People that were bullish at 73k are are Absolutely praying that that they can Just keep posting you know a bounce is Coming a bounce is coming and then Hopefully it comes and again I you know I I really do hope that there's more Room room for Bitcoin I think there's a Chance it could be a 2019 scenario where There's more room but it doesn't come Until next year right and you know Between now and then you might just see A series of of of sort of failed Attempts to really durably put in new Highs but I think it's possible for Bitcoin to put in new highs um but I I Don't think you're going to see anything Like that before the fourth quarter of This year at the earliest and if it's Like 2019 that it wouldn't even be until Sometime next year um but back in March Of 2024 I did a lot of videos saying

Look usdt dominance is at the trend line Again and you know when it previously Was at the trend line you know Bitcoin USD and the altcoin market had a pretty Big pullback and now you can see that Usct dominance has really had that move Up which the reason I point that out is Because it's helping the the the Bitcoin Dominance plus usdt Dominance Trend higher because Previously this metric the Bitcoin Dominance plus USD dominance was Trending higher but only because Bitcoin Dominance was going up quicker than USD Dominance was going down but but if you Look at where you know this is right now It's right at the spot that it was just Before rate Cuts in in 2019 and if you look at at Bitcoin Dominance plus eth Dominance you can see that it's just Kind of you know it's been putting in Higher highs and higher lows and now It's it's nearly back to the bull market Support band but it's also you know Approaching that spot where it it Basically just went up a lot just before Rate Cuts in the last Cycle if you look at others divided by Bitcoin which is again is everything Outside of the top 10 divided by Bitcoin You can see that it's it basically ever Since 2024 began it's been putting in Lower lows and lower highs you see

That and I can't tell you how many People threw this chart in my face back When it looked like this when it looked Like that when it had this rally and Everyone was saying look at these alts And and you know you're fading it but I'll tell you this guys last cycle we Saw others Bitcoin drop 60% then rally 60% 70% and then drop another 60% as Those rate Cuts arrived let me just Overlay us interest rates onto the chart You can see it pretty clearly so I say Why not again right you drop 60% then They rally up 60% and then maybe they Drop that 60% again as those rate Cuts Arrived which if they do would take it All the way down to about .11 or so 0. 1.11 which is still a higher low get off My back right it's still a higher low But in terms of a macro higher low from 2019 which is why you know people say This time's different look guys I'm not Saying that Bitcoin dominance is going To like 80% or anything I'm just saying It's going to 60% Right why not a lot of times when you Get these Bitcoin bubbles they Essentially retrace to the point where The bubble began and you could argue That it all occurred right here and if It goes back right there that's at 60% maybe it just takes three and a half Years to play out which isn't that much Of a crazy take you know what's

Interesting I I've kind of found out This is a little some somewhat anecdotal I was talking to someone who's in who's More so in sort of like on on Wall Street in traditional finance and a lot Of the ideas that I was saying like yeah Like I don't know like you know I've Been talking about Bitcoin dominance Forever and and and these higher risk Assets bleeding to lower risk assets and And how like it's such a um it's such a Contentious view in the cryptoverse and I found out by talking to him you know That it's really only a contentious view In the cryptoverse because in Traditional finance a lot of that stuff Is just taken as like obvious and that's What happens during late business cycle Environments and that it's it's more Contentious in the crypto space just Simply because I think a lot of us here Including an a myself have not Experienced a full business cycle I'm Doing the best I can to navigate this But a lot of us have not experienced a Full business cycle and I think a lot of People are sort of learning it for the First time um But I just I I think back to that you Know like sometimes I feel like these Views like I I look at the chart I think This is what's going to happen based on Monetary policy there's a lot of push Back for it but I don't really get why

Because this is just what happens you Know look at look at like the Russell Divided by the NASDAQ I mean this is Just what happens right like high-risk Assets just bleed to lowrisk assets During you know higher and higher rates And and quantitative tightening look at What's happened to like Lucid against Tesla it's it's just the same thing you See it across the board where I see here Lucid's putting in new lows against Tesla again right but for some reason When you when you talk about it in terms Of like Altcoins people get upset but it's guys Like this is what happens in in in sort Of these business Cycles this is what Happens So that's really why I think dominance Is is still going to go higher I'm open To the idea of it still not really going Anywhere durably for another month or so Especially based on sort of the Seasonality and having years and the Fact that the fed's likely not going to Be cutting rates in July which means the Next option is September which if all Bitcoin pairs break down moment before That me it's August and if they do cut In September that means that that eth Bitcoin starts to sell off to same month That they cut which would be September Which Coincidentally is the same

Month that they started to break Down in 20 that eth Bitcoin broke down In 2016 so yeah I mean I think that can Completely happen and remember what Happened in 2016 is eth Bitcoin didn't Really durably break down until it swept The prior high that was put in initially Right this high right here it didn't Break down until it swept it and it Didn't happen until September could happen again right it Could happen again um would be the first Time even this cycle that we've seen That pattern you know a lot of these Moves by eth Bitcoin have sort of been Like you know a onew pop right you get a One move up you fade it and then you Sweep it or you come close to doing it Later same thing happened right here Over here you saw the same thing happen But in between in between sort of this Move you had sort of an intermediate top Right so you kind of have the same thing Right you have a high and then sort of An intermediate one but you still could Get another One that sort of you know comes close to The prior high after the launch of the Spot ETF for Eth and if you think about it it could Actually all be related to eth USD as Well because in 2016 Ethusd put in a high in March 2016 it

Wicked above it you know a couple of Times but it didn't durably take out That high until a year later in March 2017 and look what happened in Q4 eth USG sold Off so yeah I mean that's kind of why I Think this stuff guys I mean I know it's I know it's not popular I get that um And I I I just I I feel like I have to Say this like I I feel like I have to Too you know even though I spend like I The frustrate the most frustrating thing About Bitcoin dominance is that Basically it does its move really Quickly and then it just kind of does Nothing for like the next several months And it just Fades you know and then it Just does these moves really really Quickly and then it just Fades forever Right the time that Bitcoin dominance is Actually going up compared to the time That it's been fading is is not as much Right it just it makes the moves up Quickly and then it fades so what Happens is I I you know I bull poost About dominance here It finally moves up I brag about it and Then it sells off right i' say all right Still going up it finally goes up I say Look at that I was right and then it Spends the next two months selling off Right again same thing happens right it Goes up here I I I brag about it I'm Like look at me I was right and then I

Spent the next two months wishing I Hadn't bragged about it because then it Just keeps fading to the downside again This just this process just keeps Playing out over and over and over again And and I feel like we're now in this We're in the fading process again but I Think it's going to turn around come August September time frame if you Exclude Stables it's already been Trending up so I don't get what the Problem Is again excluding eth all Bitcoin pairs Put in new lows or sorry Bitcoin Dominance put in new lows sorry Bitcoin Dominance put in new Highs last month and all Bitcoin pairs Put in new lows last Month so yeah I mean this stuff is um You know I think it I I really do think It it's it's playing out it's just Taking a long time Furthermore if you look at at something Like the yield the yield curve remember It was last year and the year before When the 10-year yield rallied into October I don't know if it's going to Happen again this year but I will say This I will say this about about the Yi About the 10year Yield it has been putting in higher lows Right you can see it has been putting in Higher lows here if it gets rejected it Might be a sign that the fed's gone too

Far right if it doesn't get rejected and It goes up into October recently there Might been a little bit of decoupling Recently but recently if you look at the Dollar the dollar has been following the 10-year yield pretty closely now the Reason the dollar is important is Because as the dollar goes up that's Le That's less net liquidity one way to Visualize that is to look at at at um go To the uh the ITC by the way you can get These trading view indicators by signing Up for ITC premium um but if you go look At at at net Liquidity as the dollar goes up net Liquidity goes down because we're Converting the balance sheet of these Central banks from the local currency to The dollar so if the dollar is is at a Higher valuation against those local Currencies that means there's overall Less net liquidity now you might say What the hell does Net liquidity have to Do with anything because as far as I can Tell it hasn't helped anyone with the USD valuations in a long time and you're Right and I talked about that back then I said look guys net liquidity is good For one thing two things really it's Good for identifying when the Jaws open You can see the Jaws have opened just Like they did last cycle right this is Not new stuff they they opened last Cycle as well same thing with the S&P

500 the Jaws open there too but you can See you know you can see how how each Cycle um I change that to a log scale You can see how each cycle right at some Point the Jaws Open and you can complain about it all You want that's just what happens right Market doesn't have to be rational right Liquidity can go down Market can go up Doesn't mean the Jaws won't eventually Clamp Shut Right but not liquidity was never meant To tell us the USD evaluations right it Was never meant for that what was meant For was telling us how highrisk assets You're doing against lowrisk Assets Now If you overlay net liquidity with all Bitcoin pairs it looks like looks pretty Similar right I mean they look almost Identical to each other well there's a Few deviations here and there but as net Liquidity goes down so too do all Bitcoin Pairs and if you look at if you Look at net liquidity you can see right Here if you connect the dots it's Actually Fallen below this Support all bit coin pairs have not yet Done that same move but maybe net Liquidity is telling us that they're Going to Soon So I just can't help but feel like it's Playing out and everyone not everyone

But a lot of people are just fighting it Every step of the way and and cherry Picking an altcoin here and an altcoin There to tell me you know why it's wrong Right Again no shade to those altcoins that Are doing well if you picked an altcoin If you got an altcoin A year ago a year And a half ago and it's up a lot I tip My hat to you you know we're all here Trying to make money let's be real right I have no problem with people figuring Out different ways to make money in the Crypt burst no problem with that but Don't use that one altcoin to tell me Why this view is wrong when you know 95 % of the other altcoins have just been Going down against Bitcoin and if you look if you look at At something like the advanced decline Index right if you look at at the Advanced decline index for the top 100 Cryptos you can see that I mean kind of Like 2019 it just is just selling off Again right a lot of a lot of the Altcoins are not you know making that That same move up with Bitcoin they're Just fading back they're fading back Down a lot of them are right and I'm not I look I mean ethereum is is is actually Below its bullmark sportb it doesn't Mean it can't get back above it but you Know you have you have these some of These altcoins like Ada look at it I

Mean this is 2019 Fractal right I mean it's not is not is It not the same the same Thing right is it not you get your uh You get a big move up you get sort of a Double Peak and then it just sort of Fades back down does this not look Identical to You kind of looks same to Me look at dot what's it doing it's been Doing nothing for years you know it's One of those things were like yeah I Mean if you bought dot at $35 sure You're up some what if you just bought Bitcoin for that entire time oh look at The uh look at the dot Bitcoin valuation And get back to me yeah look at It Litecoin Bitcoin what does Litecoin Do best put in new lows against Bitcoin That's what it does best in my opinion I Mean look at the chart right look at the Chart link Bitcoin we'll see if it holds The lows you know this is one that maybe It will I mean again link Bitcoin you Know was able to to hold the lows before Some alts last cycle I don't know if It's going to right here or not but Let's See eight a Bitcoin what did I say a Long time ago I said it's probably going To go to 400 SATs it just went to 550 STS imagine it bottoms there and people Like oh I was wrong guys come On this has been a downtrend forever

Right it's been a downtrend Forever these are the trends that play Out look at madic Bitcoin uni Bitcoin I'm GNA go back to salana don't Say I'm always skipping it avac Bitcoin I said back over here I said Look it's likely going to fade back to The lows by the end of the year I stand By it I I I would guess that by the end Of the year avac Bitcoin is going to be Back down here if not below it the Reason I say that Dash Bitcoin it's the Exact same pattern that Dash Bitcoin had You know if you were in crypto way back Over here you saw this exact pattern you See this it bounced in the early part of The having year and then by November Dash Bitcoin was putting in new lows for That for that Cycle kind of look the same right it Kind of looks the Same maker Bitcoin you know I mean these things Haven't done anything B&B Bitcoin it's Had a bit of a rally recently but it Also you know it also just had a massive Selloff going into into November Salon Bitcoin okay let's talk about this One I was looking at this I was like This looks familiar to me it looks Really familiar you know what it looks Like it looks like eth Bitcoin just like You know in the past you don't know what

I'm talking about or if you don't know What I'm talking about look at eth Bitcoin does it not look the same as as As so Bitcoin just look at this eth Bitcoin Had a big move up then it had another Move Up S Bitcoin big move up right Here and then another move Up now surely they didn't drop by the Same amount right e Bitcoin from the High 89% Drop oh sorry this is so Bitcoin so Bitcoin from the high 89% drop there's No way e Bitcoin drops to 89% Right 89% drop and then what happened is That then e Bitcoin rallied right eth Bitcoin rallied back up but it just put In a lower High and you see this trend here right Like where it it it sort of did this Like little distribution And then it came down here and then it And then it slowly then faded again look At Soul Bitcoin it's kind of doing Something similar Here Right what if it does what if it falls Eth Bitcoin if it falls eth Bitcoin what it would mean it would mean Fading below all these lows that it's Been putting in on its Bitcoin Pair kind of coming back down here and

Then then popping back up for a while And then sort of fading again that's What it would do if it follows eth Bitcoin again you you can't cherry pick An ALT that drops 98 99% and tell me why The Bitcoin dominance You Is Wrong right And Again no shade to salana honestly no Shade I I think that it's I mean it's It's honestly remarkable how well it's Done over the last couple years Absolutely remarkable but what I'm Saying is these views that I expressed On bitcoin dominance We're back when the sole Bitcoin Valuation was you know in early in in Early 2022 when it was way up here and So what happens is you know you put in a Lower high and and people say the Bitcoin Dominy is wrong it's still a Lower high guys until proven otherwise It's still lower high even if it was a Great rally and if you made money on This rally I I tip my hat to you but Again the reality is a lot of the people That have done well were also buying Salana the entire way down capitulating It Here and then bragging about it again up Here you have to be careful with alts I'm not saying you can't make money but You have to be careful with Them so you can see a lot of these alts Are are are struggling on their Bitcoin

Pairs I think the crescendo is is coming Up I I think I think it is I think maybe All Bitcoin pair this is the timeline This is my timeline okay subject to one One to two Month margin right but I would say if if The FED Cuts in September then all Bitcoin [Music] Pairs start Capitulating in August Okay eth Bitcoin begins final Capitulation in September it could go up In September 1st right I mean again That's what it did in 2016 but at some Point it would be it would start to roll Over in in September so let me say in in Mid till late September just so I I get Some of these people off my back all Right this is what would happen Then if it continues like last Cycle all Bitcoin pairs bottom in November eth Bitcoin Bottoms in December why would all Bitcoin pairs Botom first well they did last cycle if You look at at I think they did um let Me double check that others Bitcoin or Sorry total 3 Bitcoin uh total 3 minus Us Bitcoin maybe it actually bottomed in It bottomed in early September early September so I was wrong about That so you could you could see alt

Bitcoin but the issue is that some of The altcoins that I was tracking back Then bottomed in August right they Bottomed one month before beforehand um But they also started capitulating one Month before ethereum as well so I could See all Bitcoin pairs bottoming in November or December E Bitcoin bottoming in December could this play out could that Play Out I I think it's possible I really do I think it's possible um that's If the Fed Cuts in September if they cut in October then you basically just you know You shift all this stuff right like so Instead of Um if the C I would just change it to This all Bitcoin pairs would start Capitulating in September eth Bitcoin Begins on capitulation In October all Bitcoin pairs bottom in November December eth Bitcoin bottoms de Ser right that's how I would change It that is my view on bitcoin dominance I could be wrong I could be wrong but You know what I see the people that Criticize this the most what they do is Is is they they they mock The View they Wait for all Bitcoin pairs to get any Type of rally they dunk on me they they Disappear when Bitcoin dominance gets Another rally and then they just they They they they then bear post on it

Again because the reality is that you Get a lot more karma from the general Public for just bare posting about Dominance right because you can enjoy it For so much longer than than the people That are bull posting on it because you Know again you spend a very short period Going up and then you spend months Fading to the downside right that's what Happens um so you get to enjoy it a lot More whereas if you're bull posting About dominance you basically get to Enjoy the new highs for a week or two Before then watching it fade for the Next three months and So that's the issue I also see what what I also see too is you know they they Sort of they they argue about it they Argue about these altcoins and why They're doing so well and then when when The altcoin market drops they've all of A sudden they were all taking profits at The top right they were all taking Profits and and you know you should have Known that they were doing that um and Then they're all suddenly Bitcoin Maxis Again um but the minute the altcoin Starts to run they all jump on the Bandwagon again the minute it starts to Run they just they jump right on that Bandwagon and they're ready to go with It again and then if it's a lower high You know and I put out warnings by the Way on if you look at total

Three I mean look These are lower highs so Far and I said you know I said last time If you look at at at when gold broke out That's what marked the top the local the Midcycle top for Bitcoin Bitcoin did not Put in a new low but allcoins Did last cycle remember gold broke out Right there and that's what marked the Local top for alts alts put in new lows In the having year it was a pandemic but It was you know it was a Recession gold same thing right all Bitcoin pairs sort of topped right Around the time that gold broke Out it's doing the same thing guys as Far as I can Tell what more can I say you know I've Made my case for Bitcoin dominance I Think it's going to 60% I think it's going to 60% by December I would say sometime between September To December but if I had to pick one I Would say December H just as because This whole thing has been taking way Longer than I thought it was going to so I'll just say December because it gives You know it gives basically another five And a half months to reach the target um And that's where I think we're going one Last thing before I forget it's not a Crazy idea it's really not if you look At at at total 3 minus USD Bitcoin I

Already talked about this look at yearly Candles look at yearly candles on on on All Bitcoin Pairs it's pretty clear what they do Right they bleed for three years and Then they get one move one year Up right they bleed for three years and Then they get one big move up right Here's one big move up bleed for three Years one big move up bleed for three Years we're in year three The two prior years where all Bitcoin Pairs went up were in posst having years That's next Year I've made my case you can disagree With me if you want I could be wrong but Let's just keep it respectful guys you Know I mean the whole Bitcoin dominant Stuff I received a ton of hate on for so Long and I don't know why I spent so Much time worrying about it I mean it is I mean now now even though these views Have been correct now you know I feels Like a lot of people are are are stuck On the fact that Bitcoin dominance is Back to 54% a level that it took a long Time to just break above it just seems Like it's turning it into Support so that's where we stand I I Want to thank you guys again for tuning In subscribe if you're not subscribed um Give the video a thumbs up the thumbs up Do you help um and also again check out IND the cryptoverse premium at inth

Cryptoverse we do have a sale going on By the way we do a little bit more there I mean we also have three videos a week We have an AMA on Thursdays we have two Videos two other videos Sunday nights And Tuesday nights Eastern so check that out you also get The trading view indicators um telegram Alerts channel uh as well as a lot of Other things make sure you guys check That out lock and lower rate and I will See you guys next Time bye


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