Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin more specifically we're Going to be discussing the Bitcoin Dominance if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead And jump in now it's been about 3 to 4 Weeks since the last Bitcoin dominance Video and a lot has happened since then What's interesting is that some of the Things that we previously talked about That were sort of not lining up in the Same way that they had last cycle are Now actually starting to line up in an Almost identical pattern as last cycle So we'll talk about that if you're new To the channel the general thesis that I Set forth in early 2022 was just simply This it's that Bitcoin will slowly Reclaim market share until looser Monetary policy arrives that was the Thesis this was back when Bitcoin Dominance was below 40% now it's up at it's up to 55% so the Thesis has been valid that Bitcoin Dominance should go up no matter the Direction of Bitcoin USD okay and that Has been largely correct Bitcoin dominance in early 2022 was all The way over here at around 39% or so

Now you might point out and I'll just Get this out of the way right now that It technically put in a lower low in August of 2022 you know going into into Or September 2022 going into the merge That may be true when you look at the Bitcoin dominance including stable coins Right but as I've said previously if you Look at the Bitcoin dominance excluding Stable coins which makes sense I mean You know we're not looking at Bitcoin Dominance to get an idea of what the Stable coin Market is doing we just want To know what all Bitcoin pairs are doing So when you look at it without stable Coins here's an approximation of it you Can see that in fact Bitcoin dominance Bottomed in May of 2021 and ever since Then it has in fact been putting in Higher lows okay and we've had some Close Calls but it's never really stopped Putting in higher lows and in fact the Pattern that you're currently witnessing On bitcoin's dominance excluding Stables Looks really similar to this pattern Over here you know where you spend a Little bit of time below the bull market Support band for a while and then you Get back above it and then you Wick Below it again right but then eventually You just sort of blast off to a new Level and I I suspect that that's Ultimately what's going to happen but it

Is taking a long time so So I I mentioned earlier that in the Last Bitcoin dominance video that we did Bitcoin dominance was actually about the Same as it is today but a lot has Changed and I I actually pulled up the Last Bitcoin dominance video here it is And I I just wanted to pull it up this Was from about three to four weeks ago And in this video you'll see that Bitcoin dominance was actually Lower than it is right now now that Might not mean a whole lot but there's a Nuance to it that is really really Important right that is Bitcoin Dominance right here is and this is Fascinating 54.6 N% today it's at 55% but look at this the number two Crypto by market cap ethereum the eth Bitcoin valuation in this video over Here Was at 0479 right now eth Bitcoin is at 0.0053 so eth Bitcoin is actually up Considerably since then right about 10% despite the fact that eth Bitcoin is Up 10% since the last Bitcoin dominance Video Bitcoin dominance is actually higher Today than it was back Then now this is starting to really line

Up exactly how it did in 2019 now 2019 Has been a comparison that I've made Fairly frequently for a long time and The reason is because in 2019 it was a Pivot Year by the Federal Reserve it is The year that the FED started to cut Interest rates now here's where it gets Interesting previously when eth Bitcoin Broke down right when it broke down a Couple of months ago right when it broke Down right here what was interesting About it was that it was actually Breaking down before the altcoin market Broke down you see if you look at this Wick right here you'll see that was Getting weekly closes below the range Low the reason why that's interesting is Because all Bitcoin pairs were still Holding above their range lows and I I Mentioned this anomal several times that It was very different from last cycle And you might say you know a valid Response I don't really consider it that Valid but a valid response for some People would be to say well you know Ethereum isn't as you know as important Anymore and and there's other altcoin There altcoins that that are taking Market share away from ethereum and and And so it makes sense that ethereum is Is weaker now guys you know me I've been Very bearish on eth bitcoin for a long Time and I I still do maintain a a Bearish bias on it for a little bit

Longer not that much longer but a little Bit longer but I will say this despite My views that I've expressed about eth Bitcoin over the last two and a half Years despite the fact that I've been Bearish on it since it was at 085 and and all the way down it's still Number two I I I don't think there's any Other altcoin that's going to be you Know flipping ethereum anytime soon and So while I have expressed pretty Negative views on eth bitcoin it was Still puzzling to me that the altcoin Market was actually holding up better Than the eth Bitcoin valuation and the Reason I say that is because eth tends To be the last to fall in the same way That it's the last to go up if you Remember back to 2021 there were a lot of people Converting their eth to altcoins in April and May but the problem was that They were doing so because as they were Looking at the chart it was that Ethereum wasn't moving but ethereum Usually is the last thing to move and it Goes up about 2x in two weeks and and It's called as I've mentioned before the Ethereum tsunami right and it basically Takes all that liquidity back from the Altcoin market and and goes up so Everyone who had converted their eth to Altcoins gets left behind and the Altcoins basically sit and watch

Ethereum go the same thing happens on The other end of the spectrum when You're in a Bitcoin dominance rally Right ethereum is the last thing Historically to fall and so what was What was really interesting is that eth Bitcoin was falling but all Bitcoin Pairs were not but now everything's Changed right everything has Changed if you look closely last cycle Right and this is this is all Bitcoin Pairs if you look this is total three Minus USD out of Bitcoin if you look Really closely what you'll see here and We're overlay e Bitcoin onto this chart You will see in fact that eth Bitcoin Fell below Support right here about two weeks or so After the altcoin market fell below Support it was about two weeks alt Bitcoin pairs broke down the week of June 4th 2019 eth Bitcoin didn't break Down until the week of about July 8th When you actually look at the Wicks Right about July 8th we can actually get It exact right here if you look at that Wick and go all the way across you'll See right there that's the week of July 8th so e Bitcoin broke down two weeks After all Bitcoin pairs did that's Important because previously it was Looking like e Bitcoin was breaking down But all Bitcoin pairs were not yet Breaking down

So it was kind of Different but now it's not so different Anymore now when you look at it e Bitcoin had a strong move what's Interesting about this move is we we Talked about this move a lot and the Fact that you know you have a January February and may pump by eth Bitcoin in 2019 look at that January February and May same thing here January February And May So it's the same thing right and we we Talked a lot about this right that that You could see some type of of a move Like this by E Bitcoin we had seen it Occur in 2019 in fact around the same Time right if you look at at Year-to-date Roi of of let's look at at all Bitcoin Pair or eth Bitcoin we're going to look At at at eth Bitcoin if you look at eth Bitcoin on this chart and you just look At at say 2024 compared to 2019 it had a Similar move around the same time in the Pivot year you see that very similar Move and then sort of fade a little bit And then really start to fade as you get Out into mid to late June So because of this move eth Bitcoin is Now above this low from June of 2022 but it doesn't mean it's not going To eventually go back down I think it

Probably will the thing is is alt Bitcoin pairs are now closer to their Range low than eth Bitcoin is meaning That just like last cycle all Bitcoin Pairs could drop below the range low and Head down to the actual what I consider To be the low down here before eth Bitcoin makes that same Move now what's interesting and I I I Talked about this a lot is that in 2019 this Wick here by all Bitcoin pairs Occurred on a Bitcoin Rally but this Wick here occurred on a Bitcoin Dump So the next move by all Bitcoin pairs in 2019 also occurred on a Bitcoin rally Right look at It both were on bitcoin Rallies that broke all Bitcoin pairs Down right right here was one Bitcoin Rallied and then here was another one Right another Bitcoin Rally in this cycle in April it was Actually a Bitcoin dump below 70k that Caused all Bitcoin pairs to dump below 04 and I said that what if it's playing Out the reverse of last cycle where this Was Bitcoin rallies that broke it down But in this case it was actually a Bitcoin dump that broke all Bitcoin Pairs down in April and once again we Just saw all Bitcoin pairs Wick below 04 They went down to. 39 actually on a on a

Bitcoin dump not a Bitcoin pump and it Was in interesting because it occurred From essentially the same level do you See right here where Bitcoin got Rejected at at around 71k right after that right after that Rejection that's where all Bitcoin pairs Went below the range low look at it Right here look at what happened right After Bitcoin got rejected right there Off the look at right here too right Well I guess not not a whole lot Happened right there to be completely Honest but looking at this one here you Can see that they've come back down to The range low here you can also see over Here sort of after the the the first Rejection you didn't get as strong of a Move down it was it was sort of the Second rejection uh from that from that Level that actually LED it down to below The range low once again a Bitcoin Pullback off of 70k off of 71k has Caused all Bitcoin pairs to go back Below their range low now what's Absolutely interesting to me is that and I know like a lot of people don't care About you know all Bitcoin pairs but I Can't tell you how much you can preserve The assal valuation of your portfolio During Tighter and Tighter monetary Policy yes we can chare pick some alts If you want by all means that's fine I Hope you're doing well with them but my

Point here is simply this that it's a Lot easier to look back and say well if You had bought that altcoin at the low Sure you know you would made you would Have done really well in reality a lot Of people just buy the altcoins all the Way down they sell the bottoms and then They start buying them back they start Buying them again going all the way up They're still most of them are still not At new new highs on their Bitcoin pairs Some of them might be but most of them Are not so when you look at this what's Absolutely interesting to me is that in 2019 all Bitcoin pairs broke down in June right in June and it's June now Okay so I just wonder if it's going to Play out in a similar fashion I really Do you know and and one of the things About the summer is that social interest Really seems to fall off a cliff you Know you can go look at the social risk And see that and in fact it was when Social risk came back down in the summer Of 2019 that's where all Bitcoin pairs Ultimately bottomed out it was over here And it looks like you know this looks Really similar right social risk goes Down it bounces then comes back down and It's on that second drop where all Bitcoin pairs bottom out same thing Right social RIS comes down it bounces And then it comes back down and you're

Seeing all Bitcoin pairs capitulate once Again so when you look at all Bitcoin Pairs and look guys I know everyone Loves their altcoins because you know The the the communities and all that Stuff but listen at the end of the Day and this is a lesson that I I I Refuse refus to believe for so long for So long because I mean again these Charts aren't showing it going all the Way back it's just showing just 2017 There's been altcoins around for years Before that that this data isn't even Capturing right but I'm telling you from My experience you can find a couple of Altcoins here or there that outperform Bitcoin over multiple Cycles but for the Most part Altcoins against Bitcoin are oscillators At best okay oscillators at best and if They are oscillators at Best then why would they bottom at 04 when history shows the historical Record shows that they tend to bottom Out around 0.25 okay and if I overlay a a label so We're going to put a price label right Here right that's 25% of bitcoin's Market cap right September 2019 all Bitcoin pairs by out at 25% of bitcoin's Market cap double bottom 25% per of Bitcoin's market cap in May of 2020 deviation below it in December

Okay now the next part depends on if You're a glass half full kind of person Or a glass half empty kind of person if You're a glass half full kind of person Then what you're going to want to do is You're going to to switch this over to a Log chart and say that altcoins Oscillate between a fairly well defined Range and that you at at Mania phases They top out at around parity with Bitcoin where the altcoin market cap is Equivalent to bitcoin's market cap right Which is why you see it at one or 99 Right glass half Full glass half empty would Say even altcoins are putting in lower Highs against Bitcoin because Technically over here that was 1.35 and Then technically here it was One right now the Counterpoint though For my uh glass half full Friends would be to say Well if you can have a deviation below The range Low over here why can't you have a Deviation above it over here so maybe They are oscillators right maybe they Just simply are oscillators But my point is this you know I don't Really know if it's if it's macro Bleeding or an oscillator at this point I don't think we actually have enough Data to know to be completely honest but I would say

This I just don't think they're going to Bottom Here because the historical record Suggests that you know they tend to go Down and if you look at other ways of Measuring this you'll actually see that It might appear like all Bitcoin pairs Have actually made no progress in a year We first got down into this range in June of 2023 and now it's June of 2024 and we Are still here but if you if you don't Subtract out usdt if you just look at Total three divided by Bitcoin you'll See a very interesting picture you will See in fact that it has been bleeding And it just keeps on putting in lower Highs and lower lows you see that Pretty clear Picture and every time it gets a pump it Gets rejected by the bull marker support Band and it's actually getting really Really Close to the point where last cycle it Collapsed to the actual lows of point You know down here this was around 0 27 Or so when you when this is not Including the subtraction of usct The Process of Bitcoin dominance going Higher and all Bitcoin pairs bleeding It's never really been wrong it's just That it takes a long time to play out And why shouldn't it business Cycles

Take a long time to play out when you Look at Bitcoin dominance it didn't top Last cycle until after the FED cut now One of the things that I've said many Times is that Bitcoin dominance goes up Until lose to monetary policy arrives Well guess what it's starting to arrive But also last cycle it didn't even top Until two months after the FED started To cut rates so we can look at certain Things like the fact that the ECB the European Central Bank has already Started to cut Rates you know if you overlay U uh the Euro area interest rates onto the chart You'll see it let me see if I can Euro Don't remember the ticker for IT um What was it it was um Euro area I think That's what was there it is so EU okay So you can see they started to cut Rates Right But the FED has not and if you overlay Us interest rates onto this Chart what you'll notice Here is that the FED cut in July of 2019 Bitcoin dominance topped out two Months Later what's also interesting is that The FED cut rates one month after all Bitcoin pairs broke down I am not Suggesting that Drome Powell gives a flying Hawk about your Altcoins okay

What I am suggesting is that if all Bitcoin pairs were to break down it Would be suggestive that other parts of The economy are actually starting to to Slow a little bit right and and the Consumer is starting to weaken a little Bit right remember it doesn't it doesn't Mean that you know you're instantly Going to have like you know crazy Negative real GDP or anything like that It's it's just a sign that monetary Policy is starting to take hold in fact When all Bitcoin pairs broke down in June of 2019 the stock market still went Up for a while after that before it Actually started to to show weakness and That didn't happen until the pandemic Hit so again you know the crypto Market Is is not the stock market you could you Could make the case that that that Bitcoin is more closely tied to the Stock market today than it was in 2019 Because you have you know you actually Have these FS but the reality is that all Bitcoin Pairs are at a very similar Level that they were at in June of 2019 and we know that all Bitcoin pairs Dropped and then one month later the FED Cut the FED did not cut because they Cared about your altcoins right we know That so why did the FED cut well the Economy was showing some level of Weakness back then it wasn't you know it

Wasn't an immediate recession right but It was showing some weakness and that Could be seen through things like us Bankruptcies for instance right if you Look at at bankruptcies in the United States back in in 2019 you will see that They were starting to go up a little bit Right here right you can see Bankruptcies were starting to go up a Little bit and then that was right Around the time the FED started to cut Okay look at bankruptcies today they're Lower than they were in 2019 but the Angle of attack is a hell a lot higher Right it wouldn't take much longer for This to actually be above 2019 levels Which is why you see other areas already Starting to cut rates because they see The rate of change on this stuff okay It's not the absolute value that matters It's the it's the Derivative Um and that's what you have to be more Concerned about not the not the absolute Value but the Derivative so when you look at where we Are today right I mean certainly Bankruptcy are going up but we actually Just hit a pretty important level I Believe in the labor market and that's The unemployment rate right I mean it's Still relatively low under the Historical context but we hit 4% I do Wonder if hitting that 4% threshold is

Going to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sometime Later on this summer if you were to look At the current market probabilities the Market right now let me reload this see If it's updated since earlier because a Lot can happen in in in just a few hours But it looks like the market is Suggesting that the First Rate Cut this is not even really loading Right now that Well we'll come back to in a minute I Believe the market is expecting a rate Cut it was previously expecting a rate Cut sometime this summer is it in July It's not expecting one in July at least Not at the current time September no even September Well I guess technically the the Collective probabilities here would Still suggest a rate cut um you know Because the the odds of staying at 5 and A half% in September are less than 50% Right so the odds of at least a cut 25 Basis points or more maybe 50 basis Points is is greater probability by September but I I do wonder if if you Get you know we got the unemployment Rate print at 4% we have you know we have bankruptcy Starting to move up a little bit more we Also have the ECB and and the Bank of Canada cutting you know I I don't know Can the FED actually make it until

September it's possible but I'm telling You know I'm basically saying if if you Let's say this like if you get a weak Inflation print next week and then you Get another bad unemployment rate number Maybe maybe next month if the Unemployment rate comes in at at 4.1% Right and if inflation looks like it's Really starting to go down and and the Infl and and the unemployment rate looks Like it's really starting to go up then There's going to be a lot of pressure on The FED to cut just like there's a lot Of pressure on the ECB and the B of Canada cut and they have so again you Know we can see these probabilities Change based on on more incoming data That that might tell a different story So I still look at at something like Bitcoin dominance and you know it's been A hard journey it's been a really long Journey uh in some ways I I I regret Spending as much time as I have on it in Other ways I I think it was the right Thing to do but when I look at This I see something that since December Of 2022 has only had two weekly closes Below the bull market support Band in a year and a Half two weekly closes below it in one And a half years it's Remarkable I see a chart where monthly Hiashi candles have been nothing but

Green since December of 2022 it's Fascinating to me honestly how so many People have faded this entire move by Bitcoin Dominance and acting constantly like It's breaking down when the historical Record shows you that it's basically Just been going up up for over a year And a half but because everyone gets so Drawn into these short-term moves they Focus on on these periods because they Dream about alt season Right and Bitcoin dominance just keeps On going up the reality when it comes to Alt season for people that really want Alt season is that the way this Historically works is that there's only One year where all Bitcoin pairs durably Outperform and that's the post having Year you see this big red candle on on Bitcoin dominance that was 2017 three green candles in a row the Next red one the post having year 2021 what if you just get three green Candles in a row so basically and I I've Experienced this before you you come Into crypto you get your alt season and Then you spend the next three years Dreaming of alt season while Bitcoin Just reclaims market share by the end of It a lot of people that used to like Altcoins become Bitcoin Maxis right here Never want to touch altcoins again and In the post having

Year Bitcoin dominance drops again after Everyone's been converted to a Bitcoin Maxi and that's that's kind of how this Stuff plays out you know because a lot Of people just get so discouraged Because they keep seeing their altcoins Bleed back to Bitcoin now you could Point to some of the New Meme coins that Have outperformed even some of the Altcoins from last cycle have done Relatively well but even the ones that Have done well are still at lower highs You know a lot of them are um you know I I was looking at at at B&B Bitcoin Because that one was was actually Starting to uh pick up a little bit Recently but it still is is really far Down I mean it you know essentially what It did was it it went all the way up to Around 20,000 SATs and I was very vocal Over here that it's likely going to drop Like a rock and then it dropped all the Way down to 5,000 stats now it's back up To 10,000 um but but it's still well off Its High right if you go through the list You know eth Bitcoin I still content What if it's just doing what 2019 did And if it is that just means it's going To be back by back to the range lows Within the next you know 3 to 6 weeks or So which I know a lot of people are Probably not counting on but monetary Policy has not changed in the United

States and we know that even when it did Change in 2019 it still took two months After that before eth Bitcoin actually Bottomed if you look at other random Altcoins like Theta Bitcoin right look At this one how what has this one been Doing yeah I mean look sometimes they Get pumps but you know so What so What still down 90% against Bitcoin look At dot Bitcoin what do you say I mean This is one of those alts where like you Know it just keeps on putting in new Lows now you might say they're relics Right but this is the point is that the The They all become relics at some point is The reality to some degree right at Least most of them maybe a few haven't But most of them become Relics that doesn't mean they can't pump In the next in the next you know phase Where Bitcoin dominance goes down but When you think about the thesis of Preserving the Satoshi valuation of your Portfolio back in early 2022 even though We were about to enter into a bare Market You still would have been better off With Bitcoin than polka dot right I mean Look at this polka dot is down from I Mean from the high it's down 91% against Bitcoin look at the inverse of this look At the one over. Bitcoin so the Bitcoin

Dot valuation so the last time I did This video where I showed you the Comparisons you can see where it was now Look at It the way this works Here in May of 2021 one Bitcoin would Have gotten you about a thousand Dot and then I showed an example then in February 2022 one Bitcoin got you 2,000 Dot then in in February 2023 one Bitcoin Got you 3500 dot then in February 2024 One Bitcoin got you 6,700 dot now in June of 2024 one Bitcoin gets you 10,000 Dot this this is why Bitcoin dominance Matters you can cherry pick any altcoin You want to to tell me why I'm wrong but This is the Reason and and again while you can Cherry pick you know and a lot of people Say you're just cherry picking relics Guys I would argue the opposite if the Collective altcoin Market is bleeding Against Bitcoin which you can see pretty Clearly right I mean if this is the Collective altcoin Market bleeding Against Bitcoin Then the cherry picking is reserved for The people that have been bearish on Bitcoin dominance because you're going Against the general Trend where the Entire altcoin Market is bleeding Against Bitcoin so the cherry picking is Reserved for the people that are finding Alts that are outperforming Bitcoin a

Majority of altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin over the last couple of years Yes if you cherry pick a three-month Window you can find some that are doing Well but the ones that are doing well Now are likely not doing well that long AG Look at look at some of the ones that Were doing well a couple of years ago Right look at at at madic Bitcoin you Know madic Bitcoin was one that was Loved by a lot of people in 2022 look at This Move I put out a video one of the Bitcoin Dominus videos we said look guys It's probably just going to get rejected By the Range High a double top now look At it look at the inverse of one over Madic Bitcoin and look you can see I I Showed you this once upon a time as well Back in in you know February 2023 one Bitcoin got you 16,000 madic the last Time I showed you this in February 2024 One Bitcoin got you 51,000 mic today it Gets you 104,000 Mic this is why Bitcoin dominance Matters if you were to look at at avac Bitcoin you know it had a great pump off Of the range low but I recognized this Pattern this was the exact same pattern That we saw Dash Bitcoin do back in the Prior Cycles where if you look closely You will see

Identically that pattern is it not the Same thing could it deviate and become Something else sure right but what Happened with Dash Bitcoin it set a low In the bull market it then bounced off Of that low at the very end of the preh Having year same thing that avac Bitcoin Did at the very end of the preh having Year it bounced off at the low that it Set in the bull market it had a really Nice bounce but then by Q4 Dash Bitcoin Was breaking that low look at avac Bitcoin really great Bounce slowly Bleeding is there not a good chance to Buy October avac Bitcoin is back down to The range Low I would say a pretty good chance and If you look at one over avac Bitcoin You can see what I was showing Previously the last time I showed you This chart one Bitcoin got you 1400 avac Today get you 2,000 Ax this is why Bitcoin dominance matters You look at Ada to bitcoin Ada to Bitcoin keeps on putting in lower lows Right and you know this is one that's Gotten me in a lot of trouble with the Cardano community because I've said for A long time that this is the outcome but No one wants to believe it you you know And again I I again it's not personal For any of these altcoins it's not Personal for madic or for Avalanche or

For for for a or for whatever it's just This is what happens in the in the Market cycle you get one year where These things do well and then you get Three years where they bleed back to Bitcoin don't get mad at me I'm just the Messenger right but for everyone that Has Criticized the Ada a Bitcoin valuation I Would I would humbly say this Today you could have gotten more Ada for Your Bitcoin than at any Point since 2020 right so was it ever wrong of me to Say that a to bitcoin was Bearish right was it Justified that People got all upset about it and here We stand and it put in a new lad today In fact it went all the way down to To 621 SATs right that doesn't mean it can't Bounce occasionally I mean look this is What it does it it sometimes bounces and It it pulls people in and people think It's the bottom and then you wait Another three months or so and it puts In a new Low in fact this pattern looks really Similar to what a Bitcoin did look at What a Bitcoin did it was a little bit Stronger than the Ada Bitcoin valuation In the sense that it actually did get a Bounce back up to the bull market

Support Ban but it's still just coming right Back down so that's the thing like I Mean I look at some like Ada a Bitcoin I'm like I can look at it in a practical Way and say look I mean if it Bounces I'm sure people would come out Of the Woodworks to say something about It but it doesn't mean it's going to Break through the the 20we moving Average right I mean it doesn't mean That in fact you can see that the 20we SMA is getting really close to where it Previously broke down or where it Previously set that low so again it's All about sort of a rotation right you Know this week you know or last week or Couple weeks ago you saw a Bitcoin pump Right at some point in the actually at Some point earlier today we saw adaa Bitcoin pumping we did I know you have To squint to see it believe me you do But you see that Wick it was starting to Move and then the labor market data came Out and then it got pushed back down And if you look at one over Ada a Bitcoin what do you Notice same thing as everything else in 2021 one Bitcoin got you 16,000 Ada Today one Bitcoin gets you 155,000 Ada this is why Bitcoin dominance Matters right all you had to do in 202 Early 2022 was just say

Huh all right fed's going to be Tightening monetary policy we're going To go into high interest Rates preserve the portfolio preserve This associ valuation on my portfolio by Sticking with Bitcoin I can weather the Storm but guess what Bitcoin is going to Get a g to hit a new all-time high Before most of these altcoins do if they Ever Do Today had you done this back in 2021 You could literally get 10 times almost 10 times the amount of ADA and all you Had to do was stick with the King stick With a lower risk asset and get a better Return doesn't sound so bad right lower Risk better return sign me Up it's the same thing Right Salana I don't have any problem talking About Salana I was vocal about it over here That it was going to be breaking down You know back when it was At 039 or 0.0039 and this is this is what I I I I I really struggle with with these sort Of macro theories is that inevitably There's always like a few altcoins that Absolutely get demolished in the bare Market right and if you don't believe me Right I mean look at look at at at say Like us even USD which we know has not

Been doing well and we saw what Bitcoin Pair looks like but look at USD even Though it's been abysmal it only dropped Only 93% of the bare market right from Right here from up up high the high in 2021 to the bare Market low it dropped About 93% only 93% a modest 93% now look At salana USD look at this one look what it Dropped by 97% so this is what happens right what Happens is you get a few that get Wrecked a lot more than sort of the Collective altcoin market right salana Went down 97% but if you were to look at At at something like total three it Didn't go down 97% it only went down 74% but occasionally you get some that Drastically underperform in the bare Market year like salana did and and then You get a crazy pump on its Bitcoin pair Later on and therefore everyone sort of Laughs and mocks the Bitcoin dominance View but in reality most of these people Doing the the that are not the people That just bought it right here right It's the people that bought it all the Way down sold the bottom and then Started to buy it as it went back up Right but even in this case even in this Case it's still a lower high I'm not Saying it's possible that it could Develop into something more but it's

Still a lower high right I mean so even If you did go with the Bitcoin dominance View back in 2021 and you just stuck with Bitcoin Over Salana you're still doing better right Look at uh look at one over the sole Bitcoin pair so this is the Bitcoin Salon evaluation so in December of 2021 One Bitcoin got you 230 soul today when Bitcoin gets to 430 So what happens is that you know this is What happens right some alts get Hammered a little bit harder than the Others and then they get a big Bounce people only talk about those when Criticizing you know the Bitcoin Dominant stuff but in reality it's still A lower high right So I think you know it'll be really Interesting to see what plays out here Because Bitcoin dominance is still above Its bull market support band right still Above It the bullmark sport Bend range is now At it's it's actually at 54% and what's Fascinating about this is that if you Look at the prior Range High it was Basically Bitcoin dominance broke out And then came back down to the prior Resistance held it as support at the Bull market support band you see that Now look at this here you see this where It broke out right there it came back

Down to test this region as support the Same region that it had a really hard Time breaking through for so long you See that now it's holding it as support As the bull market support band gets to That level of 54% which was the level That it struggled to durably break Through from October 20123 until April Of 2024 What if it's the same thing right what If it's just Slowly Gathering itself and just to Continue to go Higher right to continue to go higher One of the ways that you get alt season If we just think about it Practically retail has to show up in Mass right if you have a bag of altcoins And you want to see them go up in value A lot and you get where where you get The Bitcoin dominance going down doesn't It stand the reason that you need a ton Of new people coming into crypto makes Sense right in fact if you look let's go Over to the workbench on the website if You look at at the Bitcoin dominance We're going to Overlay Bitcoin dominance We'll just look at it uh without stable Coins and we'll we'll look at it just Right here if you look at the Bitcoin Dominance and we Overlay the social let me see if I can Find it the social risk When Bitcoin dominance goes up Social

Risk is going down or staying at low Levels right when social risk is going Up Bitcoin dominance is going Down you need people to come in in Mass To make Bitcoin dominance really durably Go down if people aren't here there's Just too many altcoins spread around That Bitcoin dominance is still going to Go up you might say well Bitcoin Dominant should go down because there's More and more altcoins you can print Another 10,000 altcoins it's not going To magically create enough more you know A lot more people that are going to go Buy those altcoins it just dilutes the Other the the the money going into the Other altcoins and so each one is Getting less and less market share but The people that buy Bitcoin or stick With Bitcoin that that's actually usually Goes up because people just kind of Convert to becoming a Bitcoin Maxi the The longer they are in crypto again I'm Not right I I think Bitcoin exists in a Class of its own but I also think that You can make a lot of money in the Altcoin market and I've seen what Happens when all season actually occurs But the problem for for the the people That keep declaring alt season is that This is alt season when Bitcoin Dominance drops like a rock in 2017 2021 It dropped Like a Rock these are alt

Seasons this here where it's just going Up that's not alt season that's where Bitcoin is going up and it's just Dragging the altcoin market with it the Ones that want to participate in reality A lot of them aren't even participating I mean you got some of these altcoins That are closer to their lows than they Are to their highs Bitcoin is right at Its prior alltime high of 69k right Right it's at 69,420 Um Ada closer to low than the high Madic closer to the low than the High Dot closer to the low than the High xrp closer to the low than the high You can go through the list guys right A Lot of these alts are closer to the lows Than they are to the highs there are Some that are closer to the highs but You have to cherry-pick them right I Don't have to cherry-pick these it's Just the collective altcoin Market is Bleeding back to Bitcoin Now one point of criticism is that total Three includes larger market cap alts That have been bleeding more than lower Market cap alts and therefore the lower Market cap alts are getting a bad WP Even though it's mostly coming from the Higher market cap Al well there's others Divided by Bitcoin which is everything Outside of the top 10 divided by Bitcoin

When you look at this it's actually just Been going down ever since this year Began I mean the high was put in the Last week of December or the first week Of January ever since then the others Bitcoin valuation has been going down And I said previously if you look at Others Bitcoin what you will in fact Notice is that last cycle it dropped 60% It then rallied 60% and then right as Rate Cuts arrived it dropped another 60% Others Bitcoin here it dropped 60% it Then rallied up 60% and then what if it Just drops another 60% right as those Rate Cuts arrive I know I've Express This few a lot of times I know people Might I you know just roll their eyes at It but look where I mean does this chart Look like it's that Impressive it just keeps zigzagging its Way down right so I I I think it it Makes sense to look at this stuff and by The way others Bitcoin almost just took Out this prior low it got really really Close so look if you want alt season to Occur you have to see retail comeback But when you look at at say YouTube Views for all these different crypto YouTube channels remember a lot before I Was only looking at a few and people Were like well you need to look at all a Lot more I've added in we got like 30 or Something here look at Them it's so low right now like where is

Everyone in 2021 we were averaging 3 to Four million views a day now we're Averaging less than a million views a Day Collectively right the reason all season Occurred is because it went up like Crazy but this just keeps on going Down you can't have all season if if Retail's not here which Means that Bitcoin dominance Can keep on slowly going higher until Retail actually does come back but the Problem is that last cycle retail didn't Come back until after the FED cut Rates and there are instances where After the FED Cuts rates retail still Doesn't come back for a while it depends On how far the FED goes before they cut So I look at the Bitcoin dominance Chart I still think it's going to 60% What can I say you know that's my view I Think 60% can still happen and what's Fascinating to me again as I pointed out Earlier last time I did this video I Need to plug my laptop In last time I did this Video Bitcoin dominance was at 54.7% or so but eth Bitcoin was a lot Lower so now you have Bitcoin dominance At around the same level slightly higher Where eth Bitcoin is 10% higher if eth Bitcoin does follow 2019 and goes back To the range lows and goes to lower lows While all Bitcoin pairs lead the way

That's how you see Bitcoin dominance go To 60% eth Bitcoin still looks really Similar to 2019 doesn't It it looks really similar to me and now It honestly makes a hell of a lot more Sense because you now have up Bitcoin Pairs maybe breaking the range lows Before eth Bitcoin the other thing I've Told you guys to look out for is Blue Chip dominance Bitcoin plus eth Dominance to get a weekly close above 73% we're almost there right you can see Last cycle it was at 73% the week of June 24th that was when all Bitcoin Pairs broke down the week of June 24th We are almost there guys I mean we are At 72.81 per. we're almost there I've Said to look at at Bitcoin dominance Plus usdt dominance that it is is likely Going to be breaking out and you can see That last cycle it had a high and it Swept a high came back down and then Went up same thing's happening right High sweep the high come back down then Go up I thought we were already going up But then we had the whole spot ETF stuff For e that's coping I get it but it Still doesn't mean it's not going to Just go right back up so what if it got Delayed by a month or two monetary Policy hasn't changed it can still go Up if you look

At what was it uh usdt Dominance still doing what it always Does Right even e dominance you know I mean Yes it had a crazy pump it's still a Lower High dominance excluding stable coins Still looks on track to Me and you know I mean I don't know when It's going to if it I mean I don't it Doesn't have to but assuming it goes Back up to the top of this trend line Here if it were to do it in July it Would put it at 64% this is excluding Stables right the 6% you add 6% to Bitcoin dominance including Stables that Gets you to 60% okay if it takes it until September It's just 65 it's just a little bit more It's half a percent higher But that's how you get there and it Looks really similar to this right you Go below it you get back above it hold It as support and then blast off or Below it get back above it hold it as Support and then sometime in the future Blast off to the top up here is my Guess you can look at dominance Excluding Staples on the website too and And just kind of See it's just been going up for a long Time The unemployment rate came in at 4% Right and and we we actually saw though

It was well that that sounds bad I mean There's other parts of it that sound Okay I mean the the establishment survey Looked pretty good still added a lot of Jobs according to that household survey Looked a lot worse it's hard to know Which one's right but the outcome was That the long the yield curve went up Right back above the bullmark sport band Holding ass Support the dollar same idea if you look At the dollar Looks like the 10year yield doesn't it Same Thing I've said this before because Other central banks are going to be Cutting before the FED I think it's Going to be upward upward pressure on Dxy to go higher because other other Economies are weaker than the United States therefore they have to Pivot Sooner that's why I've been bullish on On the dollar I mean a lot of people Have been bearish on the dollar but I I Mean it's been going up really it's been Putting in higher lows since July 2023 and it just keeps on slowly going Up this is not when I have a ton of Conviction in you know I I I could see It also breaking down uh but if it does It still doesn't mean that that all Bitcoin pairs won't break down I think That they're going to break down either Way but it does go to show that this

Whole process has been playing out it's A very very slow process and I think Some of the reasons why this stuff is Hard is because you know I put out a Video and and and people expect it to be Reflective of what's going to happen Tomorrow right so if I put out this Video and then if Bitcoin dominance were To dump then you know people might get Upset but it's not it's not it's not a Reflection on what's going to happen Tomorrow it's a reflection on what's Been happening and what's likely going To happen for the months to come until The FED pivots and even then it still Might take a little While as it did last Cycle so there's a lot of things to look At right Um and I we'll continue to follow all This stuff but I I think the first thing Is to see a weekly close by all Bitcoin Pairs below 04 I don't know when it's Going to happen but that is what I would Look for and if we if we see it Go below That and hold then I imagine it'll do The same I think it'll lead eth Bitcoin And eth Bitcoin will go down Too and if if if all Bitcoin pairs break Down to the range Lows and eth Bitcoin goes back down and Puts in a new low That's how you see Bitcoin dominance go To 60% that would get you there and

That's still what I consider to be the Most likely outcome even if it's not the Most liked View so I'm trying to think if there's Anything else I wanted to talk about I Think that's mostly covered Everything um these are just My Views Guys I again I could be wrong about it Just because I've been right about Dominance doesn't mean I will continue To be right like it's always possible That that the high is already in and I'm Wrong about it starting now But I still think there's a compelling Case to be made that it's going to go Higher and especially when you look at At individual alts I mean you can see a Lot of them just keep on putting in new Lows like dot Bitcoin just put in a new Low today madic Bitcoin put in a new low Today Ada Bitcoin put in a new low today Right A lot of them are just they just Keep on putting in new lows so you know For for me I I don't have any issue with This view I I just think that you know You basically just get a new class of Meme coins printed minted every every Few months so people just focus on those And they're like well these are Outperforming Bitcoin and then six Months from now they just focus on New Meme coins and the old meme coins are Just like no one cares about anymore They just pivot to the new ones to say

Why you know why why those are more Important But uh these are the views and it's Interesting because we you see the same Phenomenon happen across different asset Classes look at the Russell bleeding to The NASDAQ same idea you see that The Russell is breaking down against the NASDAQ it's pretty eye opening When You See It Rivan Tesla Evaluation it's actually going up Temporarily but it was breaking down not Too long ago and it's right at the bull Mark sport B so we'll see if it gets Rejected there there's a there's a a Good chance we'll see a lot of Volatility coming out of these EV Companies uh really really soon Lucid Tesla same idea right I mean it just Keeps on keeps on breaking down to new Levels So you know I think it is Worthwhile to Think that all Bitcoin Pairs could break down and if and when They Do it doesn't take long to find the Range lows couple of months Right so let's see if it happens last Cycle it happened in June when people Were checked out for the summer maybe

It'll happen this summer too maybe it Happens in June I'm not married to that Idea it could be July could be even later right after the Last having we saw all Bitcoin pairs Balance for a while but we also had Better monetary policy conditions today We don't so I still think they're going To Bleed so if they bleed remember it it Can take place really quickly to the Range lows and then that I think is Where Bitcoin dominance will finally top Out but I don't think we are there yet I Think we have a little bit further to go And I think that staying in Bitcoin does Help preserve this to valuation remember Last Cycle if you look at the Bitcoin Dominance or if you look at Bitcoin USD Bull market support band remember last Cycle Bitcoin did not fall below the Bull market support band until after Bitcoin dominance had topped okay if you Look at Bitcoin Dominance you will see that Bitcoin Dominance topped and then right after it Topped Bitcoin fell below the 20we SME because all that liquidity had been Had been sort of Absorbed that's why I say Bitcoin helps Preserve Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio Helps preserve the Str valuation it's Not that Bitcoin can't go down it's just

That as long as you believe in the Bitcoin Dominus rally that bitcoin's can Outform most of the altcoin market and If it plays out like last cycle which Is's no guarantee that it does it would Theoretically mean that Bitcoin Dominance could go close to 60% before It breaks below the bull market support Band right so if you see Bitcoin Dominance at 60% and Bitcoin USD is still at the same Valuation or lower then that could be a Warning sign because it was last Cycle but that's the way you play it Right Bitcoin heavy until the Bitcoin Dominance rallies theoretically over it Normally doesn't end until the FED Pivots the FED hasn't pivoted yet They're probably going to Pivot Soon and once they Pivot I will pivot on my Bitcoin Dominance views plus or minus a couple Of months remember it wasn't immediate Last cycle it the FED pivoted in July And then two months later Bitcoin Dominance stopped so it's not you know An exact science but it's it's close Enough right if you can ride the trend For three Years does it matter if you wrote it for Two years and 10 months or two years and 11 months I mean if you if you can ride The trend for three years then you've Done a good job right if your the

Purchasing power of your Bitcoin to buy Altcoins has gone up so much that you Know it doesn't matter if you time it Exactly and I'm not suggesting that you Should go convert your altcoins to Bitcoin now I mean if you waited this Long I don't know what you were waiting For and I'm not suggesting that because There's a good chance that you convert An altcoin to doesn't go down against Bitcoin my suggestion is just simply This in the future when the FED starts To advertise they're going to be you Know raising rates uh really high and And and going through quantitative Tightening there's a good reason to Think Bitcoin dominance is going to go Up especially when it's at high levels Right or sorry especially when it's at Low levels when it's down here when it's Up here there's a reason to think it'll Go down when it's down here there's a Reason to think it's going to go up so That's where I stand on the matter those Are my views on bitcoin dominance I hope You enjoyed it we will wrap it up there Thank you guys for tuning in make sure You subscribe give the video a thumbs up The video uh the thumbs up really does Help so please click the like button Also check out into the cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom and I will see you guys by the way guys last Thing I'll see you guys next time but

Remember I don't yet know if it's going To play out like 2019 or not okay I I Wanted to to add this too there were Lower highs in 2019 we are sort of Seeing that now as well there's no Guarantee it plays out the same way Um but if it does then you know let's Say it like this if you get a big drop Back to the bull Mark sport band in the Next couple of weeks then it it opens The door for you know the 2019 Comparison okay if we break out then it It it removes that that sort of analog Okay I can't know if it's GNA play out Like that or not I do know that so far Bitcoin has not put in a higher high That doesn't mean it won't in fact if it Were to put in a higher high it would Probably go a long way in Breaking All Bitcoin pairs down because that's what Broke all Bitcoin pairs down in 2019 was A Bitcoin rally the only reason I'm Somewhat skeptical of that view is that So far we keep seeing these altcoins go Back to the range lows on bitcoin dumps Not Bitcoin rallies right so that's why I'm like I don't know if it's going to Play out like that like the same way That it did in 2019 in that regard Because you know back over here in in May it was on a Bitcoin rally and then In June it was on a Bitcoin rally they Got it back to the range lows here this Was a Bitcoin dump and then this was a

Bitcoin dump so again I don't know if It's going to play out the same way or Not I I think that the general process Is there I don't know if it's going to Be on a Bitcoin Rally or a Bitcoin dump I still think bitcoin's a better play Than than a lot of the altcoin market I Also think Bitcoin dominance could very Well top before Bitcoin Falls below the 20we estimate I'm not married to that Idea though we have seen like things Like Lucid Tesla evaluation go down even After Tesla fell below it's 20 week C so Again it's not in it's not an exact Science it's just something we saw last Cycle um but I did want to at least Comment on that because I've had had a Lot of people asking you know about About Bitcoin USD and and you know a lot Of I think a lot of people are wondering Like all these spot ETF flows are coming In but you're not really seeing price Break out and I think like you know look For first of all for every for every you Know buyer that you're seeing on there There is someone selling their Bitcoin I Think to some degree that you know it is A reflection that the altcoin market is Just getting beaten down so much because Think for a long time people were just Converting their alts to bitcoin and That was helping now there's less of That because there the the purchasing Power of the altcoins is just a lot less

So you get a lot less Bitcoin when you Make the conversion for a lot of the Altcoins and that might be a reason why Bitcoin hasn't hasn't broken out up here Yet but I would say that if it if it Can't break out and it just up putting In a lower high like 2019 then then that comparison becomes Really useful okay um really really Useful but at this point it's still too Early to know okay it's still too early To know and I don't want to be Deterministic about it and I think I Came into this to be completely honest I Think I came into it being very Deterministic about it um about it being This but I again I I do get things wrong And so I I don't want to say that it has To be like that we could see it do Something different right we could see It you know play out in a different Manner and in fact I would expect you Know things to play out slightly Differently it's not like it's going to Be an exact science or an exact replica Of what it did last cycle right we know That um I'm just saying that if it can't Put in a higher high then it does call Into into into question that 2019 rally Um and if it puts in a higher high then It still doesn't mean that it can't be The 2019 rally but maybe it just starts At a higher price even last June in fact We actually saw Bitcoin go back up to

The prior High We swept the high and That could still be a valid comparison If Bitcoin is able to go back up to the Prior High but you know so far it hasn't been Able to do that but last cycle when it Did that it didn't really make that move Until about mid June right and now we're It's only June 8th this this weekly Candle back up here was mid June and Then it hung around those highs until Mid July so I don't want to completely Dis credit that idea at this Point I think both ideas are are Potentially valid we'll see which one Plays out the great thing is that you Know I express these opinions I don't Trade any of this stuff I just trade the Risk metric and I just I've just stuck With Bitcoin because I thought Bitcoin Dominance was going to go up I just want To say again that if Bitcoin dominance Goes to 60% and Bitcoin USD is still Above the bullmark SP band that could be The signal that it might go below It right that's that's what happened Last cycle but I don't know where the Price of Bitcoin is going to be exactly That's just what I would I would be Looking at I think it makes sense to be Hedged other way right I mean I think it Makes sense to you know to to and I've Said this for years right you know Bitcoin gives you exposure to the

Potential upside while minimizing your Downside risk you Know it's not that Bitcoin can't go down If it goes down in fact you know back Over here when Bitcoin USD went down Bitcoin dominance went up all right Bitcoin dominance was going up while Bitcoin USD went Down so that's why I've said for a long Time you know if you're if you're Holding a lot of altcoins and you keep On cheering for Bitcoin dominance to Break down I I almost wonder if you got To be wondering what you're cheering for Because under similar monetary under Similar monetary policy conditions in 2019 once Bitcoin broke below this 20we SMA it was it was hell for altcoins even Though they went up on their Bitcoin Pairs that was a small consolation prize Because they were bleeding out on their USD pairs a lot so you know I know a lot Of people want alt season but that Doesn't normally come until the post Tapping year so if you see Bitcoin go Below the 20we SMA or if you see Bitcoin Dominance go below the 20we Ese and hold It that's probably not a good thing for Your altcoin on its USD pair it might be Okay for its Bitcoin pair but I've I've Learned that most of you guys just care About the USD valuation so if you're Cheering for Bitcoin dominance to to to Drop just be careful what you wish for

Because when it did the same thing under Similar monetary policy conditions in 2019 all USD pairs did not do well even Though they're all Bitcoin pairs Did we'll wrap it up now I I I'm done I Don't know how long the video has been It's probably been too long but I'll see You guys next time bye


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