Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin but more specifically We're going to talk about Bitcoin Dominance if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Get the video a thumbs up and also check Out intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom we've been on A pretty long journey here with the Bitcoin dominance metric it is something We have discussed for quite a long Period of time um not even just through The current uptrend but this is Something that I've discussed on my Channel going back all the way to 2019 When I was actually bearish on on Bitcoin dominance but over the last Couple of years two and a half years or So I have been a fairly vocal Bitcoin Dominance bull for reasons based around Monetary policy so my arguments have Just been simply that as rates go higher For longer and as quantitative Tightening continues then the ultimate Outcome is that the altcoin market Bleeds to bitcoin it is not nor has it Ever been a personal attack on any Altcoin in particular it is more so just An acknowledgment of this is what we saw Happen Last cycle this is what we have seen Happen in other business Cycles with

Other asset classes namely higher risk Assets bleed to lower risk assets that Doesn't mean the process is monotonic it Does not go up in a linear fashion it is Very much a stochastic Process and and sort of the the the Pendulum will will swing from one one Side to the other but the general Direction for dominance for quite a long Period of time has in fact been up And since my last video on bitcoin Dominance where at least the title was Bitcoin dominance we have put in a new Cycle high right and that's an important Milestone to acknowledge because Bitcoin Dominance has now hit 57% now the reason why that's important Is because a lot of people in the Cryptoverse were very convinced that the Dominance of Bitcoin had already topped Going into the spot ETF a lot of people Were convinced that it had topped back Over here in the summer of 2023 but what You'll notice is that it just continues To go higher and higher and higher and The reason why I think a lot of people Got this wrong was because they were Sort of basing their Bitcoin dominance View on what happened last cycle where Dominance topped out in the preh having Year right it topped out in September of 2019 which is why so many have come to The conclusion that that was the top There and then when it wasn't the top

Well then that was the top right it was Because that is what would have expected To happen based on the last Market cycle But my argument has been that the timing Of the Bitcoin dominance top is not just Based on where you are in a typical Four-year cycle right it's more so based On monetary policy and what is the Federal Reserve doing the dominance of Bitcoin Did not top in September of 2019 just because it happened to be Q3 Of the prehab year and you know people Thinking that that has to be repeated Every Q3 of the prehab Year it topped more than likely there's Again there's no even definitive Evidence that this is true in it of Itself right it's just a theory it Topped after the FED started to cut Rates that is when it topped not before The FED started to cut it's topped after The Federal Reserve started to cut rates And so because of that because of that I Have just simply suggested that it might Take until rate Cuts before we see the Bitcoin dominance top out just based on What we saw last cycle right and Admittedly I might not be right about That but also I think it would be fair To say especially for you know the People that have been the most critical Of My Views that it wasn't necessarily Wrong to think that considering that at

Least at this point Bitcoin dominance Just keeps on putting in new highs and Now we have seen it go all the way up to 57% right you can see here this Wick Right there it all the way up to 57% so really the 60% Target that I've been talking about For the last 2 and a half years while Once it seemed almost Unobtainable at this point it's not Really that much further away now again There's no guarantee that we reach it But of course in this video I will Explain why I do think it will continue To go up not necessarily in a monotonic Fashion but but the stochastic process Should continue where it generally Resolves to the upside it was not Necessarily just the FED reducing Interest rates in the last cycle that Caused the Bitcoin dominance to top out It might also have had to do somewhat With the fact that they started to Expand their balance sheet in September Of 2019 in fact if you were to draw a line Through the process from where they went From quantitative tightening to Quantitative easing you will notice that Basically marked the top for Bitcoin Dominance so my view is just simply that As we continue into quantitative Tightening and high interest rates then Bitcoin dominance should continue to go

Up just as we're seeing it do again that Doesn't mean that every week it has to Go up it doesn't mean that you won't get Multi-week sometimes even multi-on Pullbacks in Bitcoin dominance but the General resolution of it should continue To be to the upside the further we go One question I often get asked is why Talk about Bitcoin dominance so much and My answer is always the same when you go To make an investment You have to figure out well you should Figure out is it worth the risk is it Worth the Risk and my argument has been that Bitcoin is the least risky asset in the Cryptoverse and the market cap of Bitcoin dominance or yeah not the market Cap and the mar the the the actual Metric of Bitcoin dominance should go up Right so not only is it the least risky Asset but it should Outperform a Majority of the different Cryptocurrencies right that's not to say None of the cryptocurrencies will Outperform Bitcoin I have always Admitted that there would be some that Outperform Bitcoin and there have been Some that outperformed Bitcoin but Collectively we have seen the altcoin Market lead back to bitcoin over the Last several years and so if you go to Make an investment in the cryptoverse

And you want to figure out what your Risk adjusted returns are you first look At Bitcoin you look at an Altcoin if you can come up with a Compelling reason why that altcoin Should bleed to bitcoin then it would Make more Sunny it would make more sense Just to you know to buy Bitcoin instead Of that altcoin if you come to the Conclusion that the altcoin will Outperform Bitcoin then it helps justify Some of that risk right but the reality Is that most altcoins have now continued To put in new lows against Bitcoin even This late in the market cycle so that is Something that you know it wasn't Necessarily going to be true based on What people thought about sort of Cycle Theory but monetary policy certainly Suggested that the dominance of Bitcoin Would continue to go up now I do want to Talk a little bit about where we Currently are because first of all I Will you know just acknowledge that We've put in a new high right so you Know the haters can say whatever they Want to about it but it wasn't wrong it Wasn't wrong to be bullish on on bitcoin Dominance whatever they may want to say Right this is a new high in fact if you Look at monthly hiashi candles for Dominance it's just been in a macro Uptrend since December of 2022 right There hasn't even been a single month

Where these highin AI candles turned red Not yet Anyways So it was never wrong to be to be Bullish on it I think there were some People that it didn't really sit well With them because of it the the Implication of what it meant for maybe Some of the altcoins they held sort of The devaluation of that altcoin but as I Said before it's not personal it's just A lesson I learned in the last Market Cycle and I was hoping to relay to other People as I've said I'm not going to Talk about this stuff next cycle but I Do hope that we can kind of you know tie A bow on this Theory relatively soon and Guys I I will say you know one more Disclaimer just because I've been right About it doesn't mean I will continue to Be right about it right sometimes I see People you know they have a theory and They get it right and then people think All right well they were right about it Therefore what they say next has to come True that's not even necessarily true Okay so please also get other people's Opinions and and add those opinions to You know to what you're looking at um Not just mine because again you know a Lot of times when something seems like It's coming true even if it eventually Continues to be true it can swing back The other way for a while um because it

Is a market right it is a market and There's going to be people that believe Different things so please be aware of That with that said Bitcoin dominance Has put in a new High in fact it put in a new high this Month April which is what what I said Right I said going into the having we Should see dominance go to a new high And we have right and we have and that Has not changed and and it played Out basically as as we sort of Speculated it might you know I mean I Know there's a lot of people thinking That it was going to top out at the spot ETF and then the that the direction Would sort of gear more towards the Potential spot ETF for eth but what I Said back then was that well the having Is going to come first so dominance Should continue to Rally into the having And you can see that it put in a new High only last week now with that said It has now had a pretty substantial Pullback to 55% in fact it's actually gone below 55% Right i' I've watched it earlier it Wicked below 55% a few times it's gone Into the 54s and I mean it certainly Could go back there right there's Nothing necessarily saying that it can't But I do want to explain you know again Why I think it'll continue to go up and What I would be looking for to see it

Shift back the other way so remember First I would expect us to have to go Back to looser monetary policy that Doesn't necessarily mean it has to top Out after rate cuts it could be you know Right as rate Cuts arrive it could even Be a month before rate Cuts right but The point is it should top out somewhere Around that area the problem For and the problem that has been for The altcoin market is that these rate Cuts these theoretical rate Cuts just Keep getting pushed further and further Out right so you know the rate cuts that Were once being projected to occur in March were then pushed out to May and Then June and then July and now the Market's not even expecting the First Rate cut until September now I do think There's a good chance we could get a Rate cut before September but that's one Of the reasons why I think we've seen Altcoins go to new lows on their Bitcoin Pairs and the reason why we've seen Bitcoin dominance continue to put in new Highs it's because these rate cuts that People keep waiting on that a lot of the Riskier assets really need to start Doing well against lower risk assets They just keep getting pushed further And further out and so as the market Continues to price that in all Bitcoin Pairs capitulate Right that doesn't mean you're not going

To get days like we've had this past Weekend and I actually warned about this Many many times in some of the videos That I did recently and also in in a lot Of tweets that I put out on on Twitter Or x a lot of posts on X where I said You know if these altcoins are going to Get a bounce right if you're going to See eth get a bounce it would be just After the having if it's going to happen There's no gu guarantee that it even Happens and you might say well Ben you know this is a pretty big bounce Guys first of all it's still right now Below 0049 second of all if you look at last Cycle you will notice that e Bitcoin had Not one not two but three bounces off of The range low before ultimately Capitulating so far we have only had two Bounces one And two so is it possible that it gets One final bounce before rolling over Maybe if there is a narrative to Accompany that I have to imagine it Would be people speculating on the Potential approval of a spot ETF for eth I don't really think it's going to Happen in May but I could be wrong about That I don't really have a a strong Reason for why it would be approved or Not I just I'm basically going on what Market probabilities are telling about Its approval and they're not so

Optimistic right now um so if there is Going to be a third and final bounce you Know it would make sense for it to occur Right after the having but whatever Happens here I would expect it to once Again resolve to a lower high what You'll notice about the third and final Bounce here is that it was rejected on The weekly time frame by the bull market Support ban it did get some WI above it But it still had weekly closes below Right now the bull market support band For eth Bitcoin is around 0053 to 0.0054 So for me if it's going to bounce I Think that's going to be your your your Sort of your limited upside and I'm not Even convinced that it's going to one of The reasons for that is because over Here when it bounced it was not a weekly Close below the range low right here we Got a weekly close below the range low And you can look at another example back Over here in you know in in 2016 where Once we got a close below the range low We didn't get another balance after that Right I mean we just basically bled Until you know for for basically two More months so these are these you know There's these things that occur in the Market right where you you sometimes get Counter Trend rallies it doesn't mean That the overall trend has been Incorrect it just means that you're not Convincing everyone on the first attempt

Right and every time that it tests it Again you convince a few more people and That's why often times what you'll see Is on the fourth Attempt it will Break and you'll see that actually a lot Right you you'll see that actually a lot In markets where you have a trend line And it'll hold it as support one time It'll hold it as support two times it'll Hold it as support three times but on The fourth time that's when it finally Breaks Okay I don't know I want to be clear I Don't know if eth is going to get a move Here or not right because I mean right Now it hasn't even really bounced it's Still below 049 right I mean come on you Know I mean 049 is the level that all All the eth Maxis told me it was never Going to go below and and here we are so Bouncing right back up to 0049 isn't Really necessarily proof of anything but I will say if there is a bounce what You'll notice over here is that whatever That bounce occurred it occurred Relatively quickly in the move right Within the first week or so is when that That move topped out just after the spot ETF for Bitcoin you saw eth Bitcoin get A bounce right right after it but what Happened it just bled right back down Putting in lower highs so we just are About to finish up the having week so if

E Bitcoin is going to bounce um this Will be the time for it to do it but I'm Not convinced that it has to just Because we already put a close below the Range low if it does bounce I have to Imagine a lot of people would assume That this would be the low but my Assumption based on monetary policy Would be that it would be rejected here At its bull Mark sport ban just like it Was back over here in May of 2019 just Before before rate Cuts arrived what's Funny is that this bounce here occurred At the end of April of 2019 and here we Are at the end of April of 2024 which Again is also theoretically a year where The FED Cuts interest rates so is that What's going to happen is it going to Bounce off go back to the bullmark sport Band and then go down or is this where We Are where after you get Some here you had two closes below the Range low you get a week where e Bitcoin Goes up a little but then it just keeps On bleeding right but then it just keeps On bleeding so again how do I navigate It my my portfolio has just been Bitcoin Heavy for like the last two and a half Years for someone like me I don't really Care if these things get low or high Bounces because I ultimately expect it To resolve to the Downside that is my view right so far

It's worked out I mean so far it has Whatever people want to say I mean it Has I think it will continue to resolve To the downside and this is what I would Say about eth Bitcoin my base case is That it Bottoms in June okay that's my base case that's Flexible though right I'm not like I'm Not that set in stone on That I think it could bottom in June if It doesn't bounce here okay so if this Just ends up being like a little you Know a little back test of the support Level that held for so long and then we Just keep on going down then I think you Get about you know seven more weeks and Then once you're out in in in about mid June or so I could see it theoretically Bottoming and then that would mean the FED would then cut potentially in July last cycle eth Bitcoin um bottomed Out in August well I guess it bottomed Out after the FED started to cut rates Last cycle so I mean um this in fact in July is when it broke support and that Was just before the FED started to cut Rates so I don't know if the fed's going To cut rate I mean I don't think they're Going to cut rates in May but I will Say if it doesn't bounce then I would Expect eth Bitcoin to bottom out in About two Months if it does bounce then it might

Take three to four months To go to that .3 to 04 range so that's Kind of my view so if no bounce Potentially of botom in June maybe July If it does bounce then it could be you Know July or August or something like That so just something to think about as We as we continue to navigate the Cryptoverse here and and and these these Moves that have occurred and you know I I do really vividly remember the bounce Here off of the range Low by eth Bitcoin And everyone's saying you know that was The low um and then it just kept on You Know It ultimately resolved to the Downside so again if it does bounce I Would expect it to be rejected by the Bullmark scoreband if it doesn't then You might just go into final Capitulation into the the early summer And I think it would be honestly Fantastic for it to not bounce and to Just get about a TW Monon bleed to Bottom out the same time it did in 202 Too because if you look at this what You'll notice is that historically after Eth Bitcoin breaks the range low it Takes about 8 weeks for it to bottom When you see that it break the it broke The range low right here the first Weekly close below the range low it took Eight weeks to bottom we saw this first Weekly close below the range low last Week and we of course only have gone one

Week since then 8 weeks would actually Put you in in June the reason why that Interesting is because there's some type Of seasonality that comes with eth in The summer that for whatever reason Ethereum is allergic to the summer Months right it doesn't like it does not Like summertime I think one of the Reasons for that is because during the Summertime people go outside and touch Grass maybe you should try it sometime And I think that in the summer time People focus Less on risky assets and They focus more on other things Therefore higher risk assets like e will Bleed to lower risk assets like Bitcoin Just because there's not really you know You really need a reason for Bitcoin Dominance you don't really need a reason For Bitcoin dominance to go up I mean That's just kind of what it does uh you Need a reason for it to go down and and In in my opinion the way that it can Continue to go Down um is or the way that that that That that Bitcoin dominance can continue To go up and E Bitcoin could continue to Go down is just simply people tuning out This summer and not watching crypto and When people don't watch it that's kind Of when all Bitcoin pairs can bottom When people just don't really care Anymore about about crypto so I think it Would actually be great if there's no

Bounce and it just bleeds until June and It bottoms out around the same time as It did in 2022 because you can see in 2022 it bottomed out in June right it bottomed out in June If you're kind of like what's been Talking about with this weakness by eth In the summer you know don't take my Word for it honestly don't this is Crypto after all don't trust verify you Know don't just let me blow smoke and Then you take it to the bank like it Means something right let's go take a Look let's go look at the um at the uh The monthly average Roi okay so this We're looking to look at the 90day Roi Averaged out over the course of you know Of of all of all of eth's history so if We do that if we pull it up for Eth what you're going to see is that if You buy on average if you buy eth in January February or March then on Average throughout all Market Cycles all Years eth is up about 2x 90 days later but if you buy it in April you can see it's only 1.5 buying It in may only 1.2 buying it in June Basically break even now clearly there Are some times where the market goes Down this is averaging out data going Back pretty far to 2015 you know if you Change this to 2018 you can see that It's not you know it isn't the numbers Aren't as big right but it still gets

Into this lull here in the summer months Right and if you take it out 2020 you Can see that you know it goes down into April still kind of low in May but it Doesn't really pick back up until the End of the year and you can see that for A lot of different time frames right I Mean a lot of different time frames it's The beginning of the year and the end of The year that have the best Roi for eth The beginning and the end with a l kind Of in between right and we're just Looking at CH different calculation Starts high in the the high in the Beginning high in the end sort of a low In between and so when you think about e There there e some type of weakness that Often comes in the summer months by by Eth Bitcoin and we can actually see that If you go look at asset pairs eth Bitcoin look at the 90day ROI of eth Bitcoin on average going back through 2015 and you can see that you know the Best time honestly to get into it is September you know trading your Bitcoin To eth in September has often been a Pretty good time in terms of a 90-day Roi and isn't it funny how last cycle Eth Bitcoin Bottomed in September right what if it I mean Imagine if it takes until September I Mean I hope not but in the grand sche of Things it's only 5 months from now you

Know I mean this this thing has been Going on for 2 and a half years 5 months Is really nothing at this point I don't Really think it's going to take until September to be completely honest but There are other reasons why that have me Thinking that it might take that long And I I'll show you a couple of those Reasons as well um but I'm I'm hoping That it just sort of bottoms out in June If it if it gets a bounce here into into May then certainly August September time Frame could be on the cards I mean it really just depends on on on When the FED shifts over to looser monetary Policy right I mean I think there's a Lot of people thinking that there has to Be a certain answer to this question but In Reality it's based on something that None of us know the answer to right so I Mean it's going to be based on on things That we just simply cannot know and so While everyone wants to pretend like They have an edge and can predict Exactly when it's going to bottom and Some people are predicting now no one Knows because no one really knows Exactly what the fed's going to do um I Think that they might pivot sooner than The market is thinking especially if the Market continues to be weak because you Know some parts of the market like the

NASDAQ are starting to show some Weakness but given that there is often Some type of seasonal weakness kind of Going into May in election years so so Far this is really nothing different Than normal um but if it were to Continue and if if it were to evolve Into something more then it would be Time to to think that okay maybe they'll Pivot sooner than what the market Currently thinks so the reason why I Just spent so much time talking about e Bitcoin is because if Bitcoin dominance Is going to go to 60% I would have to Imagine it's going to be on the back of Eth Bitcoin dropping some more right It's hard to imagine a scenario where Eth Bitcoin goes up and Bitcoin Dominance um continues to go a lot Higher now one thing that I I feel Compelled to present to you Which would potentially try to poke some Holes in my theory if you look at the Year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin dominance Without stable coins and you compare it To Prior having years you can see that In 2016 when the having was you know Further out in the summer there was a Spike by Bitcoin dominance and you can See in 2020 when the having was in May There was a spike in Bitcoin dominance Right and you can see here it was in April there was a spike in Bitcoin Dominance now what's interesting is that

Every cycle Bitcoin dominance while in 2016 it had a really big dip going into That year right 2020 the dip wasn't as Big right this time the dip was Basically nothing I mean it barely even Went below the yearly open right so what You'll notice is that after the In in the third quarter of the year Right in the third quarter of the year Um so what I'm thinking is that if eth Bitcoin just capitulates over the next Month or two then you could still see Something like that happened where Bitcoin dominance tops out and then it It kind of comes into a lull or Something over here into into Q3 um but obviously a lot of people People are going to look at this and say Well you know what happens if the having Is the top for dominance because you can See that there were some local highs by Dominance um in those having years but One thing to point out is that even Though there were highs by Dominance at the Prior having years did eventually go Higher than where they were at the Having right so in 2020 you can see that it was here by the End of the year Bitcoin dominance went Higher in 2016 you can see that it was you know Right around here by the end of the year Bitcoin dominance went higher so I would

Still be under the assumption that even If there is a pullback by the end of the Year dominance you know should be a lot Higher um and also considering too that These pullbacks while a lot of people Expected a larger pullback by dominance Going into the having year because of What we've seen historically look at This there wasn't really much of a Pullback at all so maybe these pullbacks Is not much of a pullback at all either If the Fed refuses to Pivot and that's Why I think dominance has continued to Stay a lot stronger than a lot of people Thought that it would um so I would Continue to look at this chart uh Because I think it's going going to be Really interesting to follow and if you Look at other things like eth Bitcoin in Having years I imagine that might tell a Fairly interesting story so if you look At 2024 you can see that eth Bitcoin has Already fallen about 10% in 2020 you can see that eth Bitcoin by This point in the cycle was up 40% right so there's clearly a Difference clearly there's a difference Here you know in 2020 it was already Putting in higher highs or sorry higher Lows higher lows here eth Bitcoin is Still putting in lower lows which again To me suggests that the reason it's not Playing out like that having year is Just simply because of where monetary

Policy currently is that's the reason Otherwise it probably would play out Like the prior one but Inflation is making the FED keep rates Higher for longer it's nothing personal To e you know I mean I I like ethereum I Really do I'm not a Bitcoin Maxi I just I've made my case for why dominance is Going to go higher and you know I've Certainly lost a lot of sleep over it Over the years but I'd like to tell my Former self you know from two years ago That you know had all the people telling Me I was wrong I I wish I could just Tell them you know in the having Dominance is going to hit 57% ignore them right ignore them you Were not wrong to be bullish on It so then the question becomes now will There be a Final push to 60% one reason why 60% is a target of Mine but it's honestly not the reason I Initially came up with but one reason is Because last cycle if you look at the Fibonacci retrace tool dominance Retraced to the 618 this cycle you can see that the 618 corresponds to 60% right it Corresponds to 60% so that's the reason Why I think ultimately that we will get To that level um you can see that once We cross the0 five in 2019 we ultimately Hit 60 or we hit the 618 um only about

Two months later right so if that were To repeat it would mean we hit the 618 In June which is exactly when I said Maybe eth Bitcoin bottoms out right if It doesn't get a bounce now if you Deion Go full Dej on me again and bid it up Once again then maybe you make me wait Later in the year right which hey you're Going to do what you're going to do um I'm not going to try to worry about what People think if that happens but but um That's just something to look at right Here and and note that it did ultimately Make it to the 618 right it it it actually you know did Make it there um it took a long time to Get there but it made it there you can See that it also swept the 618 again at The end of the having Year right on bitcoin's parabolic rally Now there's an interesting Trend here That you may not be aware of but it is Actually quite fascinating when you kind Of hone in on it and and look at it very Very closely because Bitcoin dominance Has this thing that it does where it Puts in lower highs for a while making People think that it's just going to go Down and then when people least expect It it just blasts through right It that's what it does you know and and That's why there's so much hate for Being bullish on bitcoin dominance Because it often will do things like

That where it it it it it sort of luls People into to a false sense of security To make them think that their altcoin is Durably outperforming Bitcoin when in Reality Bitcoin is slowly sucking the Liquidity out and then when no one's Paying attention anymore when the social Risk is basically zero it takes off Again and you can can see that it did it Here right it also did it over here when We were in a parabolic rally during low Interest rates and quantitative Easing but that's what it does right it It it it breaks out when people least Expect it and then it just goes on these Manic rallies now what you will Notice is not to look at the lower Highs But simply look at the highs and draw a Trend Line what do you notice Here put in a High sweep the High go back down to the bull market Support band hold it as support and then Blast on through right now look what Happened the next time that happened put In a High sweep the high go back to the Bullmark SP ban and whoops All Season right that's the All Season you Guys Want that you guys keep telling me for The last two and a half years I was

Missing out On but I don't see it on the chart I Mean again my eyes are bad my you know My vision is not that great I have Contacts but this is not all season you Know and this is what I've learned in Prior Cycles is that all season only Occur for about 6 to 12 months and then We all spend the next 3 years dreaming Of It and by the last time the person by The last person that capitulates their Alts to bitcoin that's finally when alt Season begins once everyone's convinced That Bitcoin is the way now I do think Bitcoin is the way to be successful in The crypto but even though that's true I Respect the the shifts in Trends and While Bitcoin dominance honestly spends About three years of the market cycle Going up with people and complete Disbelief the entire way it only spends About one year of the market cycle going Down and then we dream about that for The next three years so rather than Dream about that for three Years just enjoy the dominance rally Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio wait till Lose to monetary policy and then Altcoins start to durably outperform Bitcoin but what do you notice in both Cases Bitcoin dominance swept the high In both cases and in one case we went Back to the bull market support band

Held it as support and in the other case We went back to it and we didn't hold it As Support when we didn't hold it as Support alt season happened when we did Hold it as Support the altcoin Reckoning continued Now what's going on today well you'll See here that we put In a High in December we then swept that high More or less right here in March now Technically speaking where we went in March was not a higher high so I don't Know if you can call it even sweeping The high or not if you exclude stable Coins it most certainly was is not Sweeping the high but we're going to Look at it both ways if you assume that The March move here by dominance was the Sweep of the high similar to this one Then what you'll notice just after it is It came back down to the bull market Support band held it as support and is Now breaking out again if that is the Case then that means we are here and That means the dominance is going to Turn around really quickly and start to Go back up because it's had a pretty big Pullback right it's dropped from 57% to 55% so if we are there then it means We're already on the third attempt and This could be the move that is about to Happen over the next two months that

Takes Bitcoin dominance to 60% that is what I would hope because I Kind of want to be done with with these Discussions if I'm being honest I don't Like being the bad guy you know I don't But That I think is where we could Potentially be now with that said there Is some evidence to Suggest that the March move was not a Sweep of the high and that would be to Look at the Bitcoin dominance excluding Stable coins now if you look at it Excluding stable coins what you'll Notice is that we put in a high in October and then we came back up to that High in December but it was not a higher High it was not truly a sweep of the High this is truly a sweep of the high Is it not right no doubt about it Excluding stable coins Bitcoin dominance Put on a new high I cannot tell you guys How many people have been telling me About ex you know dominance excluding Stable coins about how it was going down And I kept telling them I'm like no it's Probably going to do exactly what it did Last cycle so on the ITC website we have The way to to track it excluding stables And look at this here you can see the Same thing happened right lower highs And then at one point it finally swept The high and then it had a one month Pullback and then it and then it

Continued its Journey you see that lower highs lower Highs lower Highs sweep the High just as everyone thinks that Bitcoin dominance is already topped Think about how many people told you Dominance had already topped in January Right sweep the High and then it came back down for one Month and then it went on and then it Went on its way to put into the top so If you look at that same pattern today You can see something similar right Lower high lower high lower high lower High sweep the high we're now in that Pullback right so this pullback right Here is potentially the one that we are Currently in but this is a more volatile Version of this right the range on this Just to give you an idea right it went From 57 all the way down to 50 so about a 7% Difference this one here has been about 58.6 down to 53.8 right it's only about a 5% Difference so this one over here was More volatile than this one Was this Pullback pulled back to the third top Right so you had this first top second Top the third top which was higher than The second top it pulled back to that

Level if you look at where we currently Are this is the first second third the Third Top is right around where the dominance Currently is excluding stable Right so what if we're just in this Pullback right here now if we are in That pullback it it still means that it Could take a little bit longer for the Dominance train to continue but if That's the case I still think it's only Going to be a few weeks one of the Things that could cause you know if Again if if people are going to Speculate about a spot e ETF and it Gives eth some legs for a little while I I think it's only going to last cple a Few weeks honestly because I I think There's a good chance it just gets Rejected in May and maybe that's when Eth Bitcoin finally takes the plunge 003 To 04 but you can clearly see this same Trend occurred now what do you also Notice the same Trend here on dominance Excluding Stables also occurred up here Right high and lower highs and then Eventually we swept the high right I Mean it's the same exact thing thing but The difference when we swept the high Here we just capitulated back down to The lows in alt Season so I think we are more over here Than we are here the reason I think that As I stated earlier is because when you

Look at dominance of Bitcoin I think it's based and works Around monetary policy and we know that Last cycle dominance did not top until The FED pivoted until we went from high Rates to lower rates and from Quantitative Tightening to quantitative easing that's When it topped last cycle precisely in Fact precisely so because of that Because this has not changed and I don't Think it's about to change I think it's Going to be sometime later maybe later This year but it hasn't changed yet Because of that I think that the the dominance of Bitcoin will hold Support above its bull market support Band now the bull market support band Right now is actually kind of low it's All the way down at around a little Above 53% so I mean I don't think it has to go That low honestly as I showed excluding Stables it might just hold here but if If the Deens just can't help themselves And E Bitcoin bounces one last time to The bull market sport band it is Possible for dominance to fall back in To its 20we SMA one final time before Going on into the final move to 60% my Base case is that we don't need that That's my base case is that we don't Need to see that happen I don't think we

Need to go back down there and the Reason why I'll say that is because what A lot of times I'll see happen for for People that are very convinced of a Trend is that they'll miss out on the Trend because they're constantly trying To trade counter Trend r rallies right They'll constantly try to trade it so You know they'll be bullish on something Or bearish on something but because They're constantly second guessing Themselves they'll try to catch every Single move right so that means Converting their Bitcoin to alt every Single time you get these moves and if You do that you miss out on the larger Move up so for me my base case is not to Try to predict every counter Trend rally Because I don't do that every time we do Get a counter Trend rally I get a lot of hate that I have to deal With because the trolls come out and They're like oh how's Bitcoin dominance Doing today but I'm not in the business Of trying to predict these counter Trend Rallies I just want to know is it going To continue going higher or not over a More medium time frame you know like a Couple of months time frame and if I Think it is I don't really care about What it does in the short term I don't Right I really Don't so that I think is where we are Right that I think is where we are

Looking at dominance excluding stable Coins I think we're going to get one Final Push to the 618 at 60% at 60% now if you look at all Bitcoin pairs you will notice that last Cycle they bottomed when the fed pivoted From quantitative tightening to Quantitative easing precisely at that at That point now we've seen a little bit Of a bounce by all Bitcoin pairs I'm Sure there are some comments on YouTube And on Twitter asking me about about This because again they haven't broken Down Yet and that's something that I'm I mean Yes they haven't you're right they Haven't broken down yet but that doesn't Mean that they won't in fact last cycle Just before the breakdown they did get One final push to near the bull market Support ban they didn't even quite make It there and then they capitulate it the Bull market support ban right now for All Bitcoin pairs is at 045 to 046 and We're already at 043 and we were earlier Today we were at 044 and remember last Cycle we didn't even make it there so What if that's where all Bitcoin pairs Are the final Bounce before the capitulation All Bitcoin Pairs over the Long Haul are oscillators At best on an individual

Scale all Bitcoin pairs Collectively Bleed over the macro Scale that's how pessimistic with Pessimistic person we look at it they Bleed and I'll show you why parallel Channel connect the dots those are lower Highs don't take it up with me that's Just what the chart shows right I don't Control it if you have a problem with it Do something about your altcoin it's Bleeding to bitcoin right over the macro Scale we have seen all Bitcoin pairs put In lower highs and lower lows Glass half empty approach Okay glass half full Approach all Bitcoin pairs are Oscillators that top Out at Approximately parity with Bitcoin where The alt Bitcoin pairs are equal where The altcoin market cap is equal to the Bitcoin market cap and around 0.99 or One right And they bought them Out at 1/4 the market cap of Bitcoin 0.25 and that this move to 1.35 and this move to to 0.18 are just Deviations that we shouldn't put a lot Of weight In so for Me if all Bitcoin pairs come back to

0.25 that's good enough for Me I I don't if if it's in a macro Downtrend and it's lower highs and lower Lows then so be it you know maybe they Bleed a little bit longer but guess what I will have preserved the Satoshi Valuation of my portfolio for three Years by being Bitcoin heavy as opposed To being altcoin heavy so this is the Final move that I think needs to Occur The 42% drop by Bitcoin pairs to the Range Lows which I think will happen going Into the summer months that is my base Case that doesn't mean you can't bounce Around a little bit First but that is my base Case 0.25 that's where I think we're Going dominance excluding Stables you see this Wedge that we just we just broke well we Just broke through the the Range High Here but do you see this wedge that We're in the top of the range is 64% if you assume we're at 59% now we're Just below 59% excluding Stables that's A 5% move 5% right from 59 to 64 a commencer move by Bitcoin Dominance including Stables 5% 55 to 60 55% to 60% a lot of these altcoins are already

Capitulating right Ada a Bitcoin has Finally taken out the lows you Know again it's not personal you know And I said for a long time that I did Not think this trend line would hold I Said it for a long Time because you don't assume that an Altcoin gains value on bitcoin from one Cycle to another on average some of them Will for two Market Cycles but there's Not usually one that does it for three Not usually there might be a few Exceptions to the Rule you assume base case for like 99.9% Of alt coins that they are oscillators At best at best which means that a to Bitcoin still theoretically needs to go To the range lows right and you can see That at the highs it's lower Highs again it's not personal it's just This is what it does now do you remember Earlier when I said that I don't think It's going to take until September for Bitcoin dominance to hit 60% or to top Out but it is possible I want to show You one reason why again it's not my Base case um and there could be a case Where Bitcoin dominance goes to 60% this Summer and then I flip my view on it and Then it just keeps on going up you know That's possible too um but look at adaa Bitcoin do you see this trend line here Point A to point B and you see where Ada To bitcoin finally

Bottomed all the way down here now look At this cycle same thing You see that trend line very similar Trend line exhibit a very similar levels Too slightly lower but it makes sense That it's slightly lower because alt Coins are oscillators at best so you can See here that if you continue this trend Line if Ada Bitcoin bottoms on the Final Touch of this trend line down here that Doesn't happen until September right that doesn't happen Until September so if that's the case then it Could mean you still have a few more Months of this chopping out Right if it took this long to get here If it took a lot longer to get to this Point maybe it takes a little bit longer To get to this point and so that is one Reason it could take until September but Again there does exist a scenario where It takes until September but Bitcoin Dominance hit 60% before September Because maybe the Bitcoin dominance tops Out at 64% or 62% right maybe it goes Higher than what I think or maybe it Just goes to 60% in September one reason Why I wouldn't put a lot of faith in a Trend line like this is because there Does exist a scenario where we just Break the trend line to the downside and If that happens that could actually Cause the capitulation that the market

Needs to finally find a bot One reason I wouldn't put a lot of faith In these is if you look at some other Other if you look at some other altcoins You could try to draw a similar trend Line right from here to here to here and You can see that eventually it just Broke to the downside right that's a Further period back that's all the way Back in 2021 so if you just want to take It from here to here you can see that if You were to connect this dot to that One right if you were to connect that One sorry I'm trying To trying to connect these dots but let Me get it let me try to get it as Accurate as possible right so if you Connect these dots there right you can See that you do sometimes go below that Trend line right we just went below it Again I don't know if Dots are Relic but What I would look for is to see if it Can bottom out against Bitcoin it hasn't Done that yet it doesn't mean that it Won't but it hasn't done it yet it is it Possible that this is the Low yeah it's possible but even if it is The low You would still need to see it hold that Low on at least one more attempt right So that's why you know when looking at Something like Ada a Bitcoin I don't Think you should necessarily put a ton Of trust into such a trend line because

There does exist a scenario where it Goes below the trend line before September just like dot Bitcoin went Below the trend line and it's been going Below the trend line and it keeps on Trying to hold it and you know I think People keep on thinking it's capitulated And then that's the bottom right and Then it gets a pretty big bounce and Then it just bleeds on back down and I Think people are getting tired because They're like well why does it keep on Bleeding back down you know alts didn't Bleed this long last Cycle or at least most of them didn't That were not relics why is it bleeding Well one of two reasons option one Reason one it's a Relic option Two we just haven't seen a shift in Monetary policy so all coins haven't had The chance to bought them so again for Every altcoin it's not personal like I Don't I mean there's all these altcoins That could theoretically go back up and Do great things in the future right they Haven't had a chance to bottom out Against Bitcoin most of them because we Just haven't seen a shift in monetary Policy so if you have an altcoin and You're like you're wondering what to do What I would say is we haven't even Reached the point where they've been Given the chance to bottom because

Monetary policy hasn't Shifted Litecoin Bitcoin just put in a New low last week you know last Week link Bitcoin I sort of Drew this Out a while ago um we'll see I mean that You can see the low from June of 2023 See if it holds that low maybe in May Maybe in May madic Bitcoin is in out Right capitulation now I think madic Bitcoin might bottom out 1 month before Eth Bitcoin so if you see Madic form a low and then bounce off of That low the same time that eth Bitcoin Puts in a new low that probably means That madic Bitcoin has Bottomed I have said for a long time on ITC premium that the spot to start Looking for a low on madic Bitcoin is at Less than a th000 stats well guess What we just went below 1,000 stats we Just went to 953 I don't know if that's the low I Could see it going a bit lower we've Seen a lot of times after Bitcoin pairs Break they dropped 50% right and right Now it's dropped 45 if you look at adaa Bitcoin last Cycle when it dropped below the range Low it dropped about 50% right from here Here this Drop a 52% Drop so if madic were to drop 52% from The breakdown point it would put it at Around 800 SATs so that has kind of been

My base case for madic 800 SATs it's Already coming pretty close right again I'm not asking you to time the market Perfectly I'm just saying that it could Continue to go down a little bit more if Is going to play out like some of the Other altcoins did last cycle now you Probably heard me say that I think it'll Bottom out before E I think it very well Could look at adaa Bitcoin last cycle When did it bottom it did not bottom in September when eth did it bottomed in August but it also broke before eth look At this Ada Bitcoin broke support in June eth Bitcoin didn't break until July Adaa Bitcoin bottomed in August e Bitcoin bottomed September now Look at madic look at Madic madic Bitcoin dropped below the Range Low weekly close I don't care about Wicks no one's getting out of bed for a Wick weekly close in March e Bitcoin Below the weekly close in April I think E Bitcoin might bottom out in June Therefore keep an eye on madic bitcoin To maybe botom out in in in in May Now again if the Deion are going to go Full Deen on me again then maybe just Shift that timeline out a month or two But the process is still there you know It's still There avax Bitcoin this is what I said guys you

Know that's what I this is exactly what I said that this is what happens you Know and I drew the comparisons I drew The comparisons you know I said look Dash Bitcoin very very similar pattern In in in in uh last Cycle did the same thing you know it set A low in the bull Market and then Revisited that low here In December 2019 when social risk Bottomed when did social risk Bottom October over here social risk Bottomed well the lower the the higher Low right December 2019 you can see clearly avac Bitcoin Got a Rally been bleeding ever since ever Since the year began you know Dash Bitcoin look same thing I mean look at Avac Bitcoin pump up slow bleed Dash Bitcoin re see you can see ax Bitcoin St Right this low here was set in the bull Market retest that low here bounce off Of it just like like Dash Bitcoin did Come back down to the bull market Support band get a bounce off of it Actually it went below it then bounce Avac Bitcoin go below it then Bounce Dash Bitcoin Bleed avax Bitcoin it's bleeding no does that mean That AAC has to follow the the path of

Dash no it doesn't actually Avax has the chance the opportunity to Try to put in a a another bottom here There are altcoins that do that right I Mean adaa Bitcoin was a great example of That last cycle where it found some Lows that can Happen there's no it's not set in stone But because the FED hasn't Pivoted what I keep saying is is why Take the risk RK of the altcoins when They're just bleeding back to bitcoin That doesn't mean they're not going to Be successful it doesn't mean that they Can't ultimately give you great returns Over a long period of time but if you're In a period where an asset is bleeding For three years against a lower risk Asset it kind of just makes sense to Hold the lower risk asset Right I mean look I mean guys dot Bitcoin just put on a new low last week You know and this this is the this is The thing that I dealt with back over Here in October everyone's saying well I Missed the low on do Bitcoin because I Didn't buy it in October and now it's Just at another low I mean the problem Is I don't care about timing the bottom On this stuff right I just don't want to Buy a falling knife you know I'd rather Buy it in an uptrend after the fed's Pivoted than to keep buying it as it Bleeds the people that will give me the

Hardest time about it are the people That bought it all the way down you know I'm not saying it's going to bleed Forever I'm not saying it won't I'm just Saying it hasn't even had the chance to Bottom because the FED hasn't pivoted Yet so Bitcoin has been stronger than a Lot of the other alts Right if 20,000 SATs breaks the next Support level is 12,000 now I've seen some people talk About Soul Dominance because it's been doing pretty Well here right but this also reminds me Of a prior Altcoin Trend not it doesn't remind me Of a prior altcoin but it reminds me of A trend you'll sometimes see where the Dominance of an altcoin puts in a high One cycle and then it sweeps the high a Cycle later and then it just goes Down what am I talking about right There's not a lot of altcoins that do That in fact I mean I imagine most Altcoins don't do that where they put in A high on dominance and they put in a Higher high so first of all credit where Credit is due I mean congrats to salana For achieving That I'm not again I I that's just a Fact I'm not going to try to take Anything away from it it's just a fact That it has put in a higher high right That's an

Achievement does that mean it will Continue Indefinitely no could it push up again One more time it's Possible but this isn't the first time I've seen something like this Happen xrp Dominance look at what it did first Cycle put in a high later on on sweep The High it's been going lower ever since Right So it's always easy to you know to call For these major events in in the altcoin Market and to think they're going to go Up against Bitcoin and and get a lot of Market Share these are all patterns we've seen Before right in fact I I hear a lot of People talking about people I've heard a Lot of people say that that soul will Flip E but what's funny about that is guess When those narratives become the Strongest at range highs this is the Sole eth Valuation they become the strongest at Range Highs so you have to be careful with This stuff right again salana has done Very well this year if you have held it You've done very well over the last year And a Half just be careful because because you

Know I I've seen these things happen Before where you'll see dominance put on A new high for the altcoin you'll see it Go back up to the Range High on its eth Pair sometimes on its Bitcoin pair and It still doesn't change the longer term Trend altcoins are great for making Money but rotating back into Bitcoin is The way you keep it that's the way you Keep it if you hold the altcoin for too Long you can watch it diminishing you Can watch it diminish against its Bitcoin valuation Eth Bitcoin eth Bitcoin gives great returns In a QE bull market it absolutely sucks In a qt bull Market even though ethereum does really Well in QE bull Markets it's still been putting in lower Highs since 2017 you know that's a fact Now it's also been putting in higher Lows right and I'll talk about that more If this plays out like I've I've talked About I mean I don't mind talking about Now right these these are higher lows I'm not hiding behind it I was bullish On E Bitcoin in 2019 my first video on My channel is right there saying it's Severely undervalued you know so don't Come at me with this BS of well why Don't you talk about the higher Lows why don't you guys acknowledge that It's been in a downtrend for two and a

Half years and really it's been putting In lower highs since June of 2017 you Know you know how everyone gives people A hard time to invest in gold because it Hasn't put in or now it has put in a new High but it hadn't put on a new high for Like 10 Years what about the eth Bitcoin Valuation it's 3 years away from not Putting in a new high in a Decade so I mean if we make it to 2027 And eth eth still hasn't put in a new High against Bitcoin then don't go get the gold bugs A hard time you invested in an asset That went down against a lower risk Asset again I'm going to be bullish on The eth Bitcoin Valuation but I still think it needs to Go to 03 to 04 and then we're going to Figure out what's more important the Higher lows or the lower highs I Honestly don't know the answer to that Question I could I can make a compelling Case either way honestly I could you Might think you know my view but you Can't know my view because I don't know My view on it I don't know what's more Important the lower Highs or all these higher lows right I Don't know how could I know it looks Like it's breaking down here to me but That doesn't mean that it's not on some Type of logarithmic regression Journey

You know where just like Bitcoin USD Follows like a logarithmic regression Journey maybe eth Bitcoin is following One too where it just kind of falls back In to this range here oscillates around It for a while and then goes up and then We finally figure out what's more Important the lower highs or the higher Lows I don't Know others Bitcoin the bane of my Existence for all of 2024 because Everyone's told me how it's only going To go Up others Bitcoin in this Wick took out All of its gains since the summer of 2023 in a single week Right that's what the markets do you Take the stairs Up convince everyone there right and Then you take the elevator Down other there's Bitcoin just swept lows it had not seen Since July of 2023 back when this whole thing began For the altcoin Market so I look at this and I know that A lot of people people have been bullish On others Bitcoin since the year began But guess what others Bitcoin basically Topped out at the beginning of the year And then it went down it put in a lower High and then it dropped and now it's Going back up it's going back up what's Going on do you guys remember earlier

When I said a lot of times it's like the Fourth time that it breaks right you tag The trend line enough the fourth time it Breaks you remember eth Bitcoin we Talked about That eth Bitcoin here this time it Theoretically broke the third time if You get if you get a uh uh another Bounce in the bullmark sport ban and Then break it would be the fourth time But if you look at last cycle you can See that it was the fourth time right One two three and Break sometimes those trend lines occur Are not horizontal trend lines but but Um diagonal trend lines now diagonal Trend lines are a bit hand wavy they're Kind of fluffy if we're being honest I'm Not going to don't take it to the bank They're not cashing it in type thing but If you look at others Bitcoin on The Daily what do you notice there's a trend Line you can draw and if you look at This you can connect the dots and say Huh One Tap two Three Break what if the move now is just a Back test of the trend line to confirm That that is actually not resistance I don't know I mean if it breaks through Here I would say the bullmark sport ban Will will reject it but I don't even Know if it's going to break through here But you can see that right you can see

That one two three fourth attempt Break remember last cycle it was after Eth Bitcoin broke down that eth USD had A larger pullback right it was after eth Bitcoin broke down remember that right If you go if you overlay Ethusd if you overlay ethusd onto the Chart you'll see it right eth Bitcoin Broke here and then ethusd had a Correction eth Bitcoin technically Already broke and you can see that Ethusd is potentially in the middle of a Correction but you know those trend Lines we were talking about that fourth Attempt if you look at ethusd Kind of see something similar right on a Log scale Anyways trend line Right sort of a fake out right there if You want to call it that right but one Two three if it comes back down it might Finally break and if it finally Breaks then we go to the lower Regression Band right so I'm there's a lot of Things right there's a lot of different Things that you know we can look at here But you get the idea right we're seeing A lot of this play out and remember last Cycle after eth Bitcoin broke it ethusd Fell back through the Wedge right so you can kind of see it's Falling back through potentially back Through the wedge here in the summer

Months right and now remember when it Fell through the Wedge last cycle e Bitcoin bottomed like One month after it fell through the Wedge so if eth USD falls through the Wedge in May then maybe eth Bitcoin Bottoms in June Right the other thing to remember is That last Cycle Bitcoin Dominance kept going up even after gold Broke out right so if you look at Bitcoin dominance and you overlay gold And you look at at at last cycle right You can see that that gold broke out Right Here and then dominance Topped so this was uh gold broke out in Like early June and then dominance Topped so that' be July August so three Months later so gold Here it depends on if you want to say December but really it was it was you Know potentially February um if gold Broke out in February March April May Maybe dominant it stops out in May or Maybe you know around May or June right So a lot of it I mean a lot of it seems Like it it could be lining up it's just A really it's a really slow process Right it's a really slow process and um You know when you when you sort of see These moves by others Bitcoin where you Spend the entire

Year where it's sort of grinding Higher but the top was the week of December 25th right I mean that was the Top so like yeah a lot of people have Been bullish on others Bitcoin and They've been telling me well you keep Talking about total three but you should Be looking at others which is everything Outside of the top 10 oh you tell me Right I mean as far as I can tell the Top was in back over here in December Late December early January and all you Guys got excited that were bullish on This got excited over a lower high Because now it's put in a lower low Remember what happened last cycle with Others and I learned the lesson the hard Way and I keep telling you guys that This is the lesson I learned the hard Way and instead of people saying oh okay They give me every reason why I'm wrong But remember last Cycle Others others Bitcoin others divided by Bitcoin dropped 60% It rallied 60% and then it dropped 60% And it bottomed out when the FED Pivoted now look at this it's the same Thing others Bitcoin dropped 60% it then Rallied 60% almost 70% and uh the the FED is not pivoted and now from this High it's already down 30% right it's Already down 30% which is again I I Called for this when it was at the highs

It's not like I'm just now saying it Right I mean every Bitcoin Dominus video For the last three months has been Saying this very thing that others Bitcoin is probably going to drop 60% Let already dropped 30 it's back up to Only being down 15 or 17 or so but if it Were to go down 60% that puts it all the Way down here at 0.1 connect the Dots connect the dots right exhibit a b And c just like over here you connect The dots One two three is where it bottomed when The fed pivoted from quantitative Tightening to quantitative easing so I Know some of these micro caps have been Doing very Well but when these Wicks happen like This and those alts get rinsed on their Bitcoin pairs that's why it shows you It's important to take profits back to Bitcoin occasionally so that you Preserve the Satoshi valuation of your Portfolio because then what ends up Happening is everyone who rode this up And mocked me on bitcoin dominance then Potentially finds themselves down here In a few months and then they're Wondering why they didn't take any any Profits on random memec coin number 475 right then they wonder why they Didn't do It and it'll seem so obvious right it'll Seem so obvious like why did they think

That was going to outperform bitcoin as You know as higher rates continued and As quantitative tightening continued why Did they think that Because of the community I guess you Know because of the community but the Community I mean I I mean honestly Doesn't really mean a damn thing in in Tighter tighter monetary policy so and The communities are really all the same Um Anyways so yeah I mean I think Bitcoin Dominance uh it is in a pullback right Now admittedly um there's no doubt about It you know you're you're from 57 down To 55 in a relatively short we even went Below 55 in a relatively short period of Time so I acknowledge that and I'm I'm Not going to you know that's why I try To address this head on because I know People are be like why is we talk about Dominance but you know the the the the The crazy thing about it is no matter How many times it puts in a new high on Any pullback people like why does he not Talk about it but um here we are I mean We went to 57% we're back down to 55 I Think we're just in sort of a pullback Like this one before ultimately going Back up um and that's sort of the more Conservative view the more the less Conservative view is that we already had That and we're already we know we're Just up here and you know this is going

To quickly continue back to the upside Right so definitely a couple of Different ways uh that you could that You could look at it but um those are my Views you know and and those are the Reasons why I have been bullish on Bitcoin dominance for the last two and a Half years since really since like May Of 2021 um and I know that we swept the Lows on dominance Going over here and really I mean I sort Of flirted with the idea of being Bullish on dominance over there I said Okay it's going to be bullish going into Q4 of 2022 or sorry bullish and going Into Q4 of 2021 but then in Q4 of 2022 I Sort of doubled down on that even on the Lower low and then you can see what Happened right now if you exclude Stables it did bottom in May of 2021 Right that's it did bottom in May 2021 And also by the way the social risk Topped out in May of 2021 so in order to See Bitcoin dominance go down durably You need to see retail come back retail Is not back new highs didn't bring him The having hasn't brought Him what's going to bring him probably Lose their monetary policy and when they Turn the money printer back on but Social risk just put in a lower low kind Of like it did over here in mid 2019 Which is yet another reason why I think

Bitcoin dominance is going to keep on Going up because as people leave that's When dominance goes up so when could it Top I think it might top this summer When everyone's out touching grass not Looking at the crypto Market because That's the best time for all Bitcoin Pairs to bottom out when no one's Looking at the market and no one is There to bid up the altcoins there's Some people there that are B going to Bid them up but they're just not enough People and there's just too many alt Coins for them to all get that same bid And so they just keep on bleeding back To the king then finally altcoins Capitulate they go down to 25 on their On their Bitcoin pairs right total three Minus usdt by Bitcoin they go down to 0.25 everyone's Bitcoin Maxi and then Finally Al altcoins bottom out against Bitcoin but I don't think we're there Yet I do admit that you know we are you Know we certainly have seen a pretty big Pullback by Bitcoin dominance it's Possible that that that pullback Continues for a couple more weeks um but I I really do think that whatever Happens over the next week or to it's Just going to continue to go up um as we Get as we get into the summer and then I I think it might finally top out uh Potentially this summer it could take a Little bit longer but that's my

Um that's my base case you know and and Because I think That Bitcoin gives you exposure to the Upside it minimizes your downside risk For me for Bitcoin USD I just take Profits as it goes off the wristbands I Have some exposure if we're still at at Kind of like somewhat heated but not all The way up wristbands um but you know I Think it's important to to also you know If you want to take profits as you get Into some of those higher risk levels I Think that's okay you know it doesn't Mean you have to sell everything but you Could offload a little bit that way if There is a larger pullback you at least Took some off the table and if there's Not a larger pullback then at least you Um at least you still have some and and That's why I continue to think that Bitcoin is the better place to be and And my guess is that the way this will Play out is that Bitcoin will will do Better than the altcoin market going Into the summer and um whether it goes Up or down so if you want exposure to The upside Bitcoin gives that to you it Minimizes your downside risk I think That'll all change after the FED pivots But it hasn't pivoted yet and again it Doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go down I mean it can and I'm I'm sort of just Waiting for that moment when you start When you do get a Bitcoin pullback and

Then people are like well you know What about what about a Bitcoin heavy Crypto portfolio now that doesn't help But that's all just going to be recency Bias you know the reality is that Bitcoin could drop you know 50% from Here and be in line with where it Normally is in the market cycle that's The reality that that I think a lot of People would not accept if it were to Happen but that is the reality of the Situation if you look at Roi after cycle Peak for Bitcoin and you take it out to The folling peak Bitcoin could drop 60% From here and be at where it was was in Prior Cycles at this point in the cycle Right a 50 to 60% drop and if it happens Everyone will be like well they did call The Bitcoin having right 50 to 60% Drop and and it would be where it Normally is and if that Happens all Bitcoin pairs get rined Right they get rined there's one thing I I want to finalize U with Saying for a long time I I've said that I I think that you know all Bitcoin Pairs bottom out before alt USD pairs do Um whether the alt USD pairs putting in A higher low or a lower low or a double Bottom whatever um but I've said that a Lot of times alt USD pairs bleed for a Few months after alt Bitcoin pairs find Their bottom and we see that all Bitcoin Pairs just put in a new load last week

Um but I I do think there Is a potential case where all Bitcoin Pairs bottom the same time is all USD Pairs it's not I don't I wouldn't say It's my base case but there is a chance That that could happen if it does happen I think it would have to happen on a on A capitulation Wick so if you get a a Sort of a capitulation Wick by Bitcoin Where it drops a lot and all Bitcoin Pairs are just Capitulating and then you get a big Bounce out of that upon Money printer being turned back on There's a chance they could bottom at The same time base case is that they Still bottom you know you still see all USD pairs bleed for a little bit even After all Bitcoin pairs bought them but I I could see I I could see an outcome Where they bought them at the same time And so I I want to be diligent about Exploring that idea based on on whatever Potential outcome there is and the Reason why I say that is because if There is you know sort of a larger Capitulation in the in the traditional Markets and it takes Bitcoin down with It um because actually bitcoin's holding Up better right now than traditional Markets if you look at at sort of the Weekly time frame and you look at Something like the bull market sport Band you can see bitcoin's above its

Bull market sport band whereas the S&P Is already at its bullmark sportband and The NASDAQ is below it and the Russell Is below it right so crypto right now I Mean bitcoin's actually holding up Better than traditional markets that Doesn't mean it's going to forever but It is so far This has been going on a long time and I I do wonder if there's there I I I Wonder if there exists a scenario that When the unemployment rate hits 4% the Market capitulates because it's kind of In that number that everyone keeps Waiting for and waiting for and it just Keeps not happening if it hits it I Could see the market capitulating and Then the FED coming to the rescue almost Immediately and if that happens there Does exist a scenario where alt bottom Against Bitcoin the same time As they do against the US dollar in that Scenario whether it's a higher low or Lower low whatever right be aware of That it depends on if it's a Capitulation or if it's a slow Bleed right and what I mean by that is In 2019 it was a slow bleed and then Eventually we got a capitulation again Induced by a pandemic but there's other Things that indu that can induce Capitulations right we also had a Capitulation over here in late 2018 and We didn't have a pandemic back then

Right so it depends on the nature of how This how this resolves right if you get A period of lower highs and lower lows Like you know just kind of like that Then Bitcoin dominance likely goes up Until Bitcoin breaks below the 20we SMA If on the other hand you just get a Massive capitulation wick on a 4% Unemployment rate if inflation is still Printing you know between 3 to 4% then they could it could occur at the Same time so I just want to make sure That I communicate that potential idea It it's going to depend on the nature of The move Right whether it's lower highs and lower Lows or just simply a capitulation by The way there does theoretically exist a Scenario and I will continue to keep Mentioning it of a left translated cycle Where all these views about a lower high Lower low thing are invalid and we just Keep on following what we historically Have done um based on a a prior Peak Rather than uh the final Peak so if you Look at Peak to Peak from November it Looks like bitcoin's ahead of schedule If from November 2021 if you take it From April 2021 it kind of looks like this is where It was in the last cycle and then you Can see what happened so again it's not My base case to assume that but if that Happens then then you likely get a much

Brutal bear Market that lasts for a lot Longer so I hope that doesn't happen Honestly um because it would probably Lead to a more brutal be Market kind of Like a DOT style crash if you can kind Of just top out here and bleed into the Sun Then the the cycle might peek out when It normally does um if on the other hand You just get a left translated cycle it It'll be fun for a few months right I Mean it would be fun for a few months But it would probably be over before you Know it I mean you know maybe three more Months and then it's over and then you Have a brutal bare Market that Is really difficult you know so I kind Of hope it doesn't do that because of The ramifications that that would mean Following it Um but if it Does that would just be you know just Something to think about right something Something at least to be aware of and I I I don't know I really don't know if That's going to play out or not I just I I I do have it in the back of my head of Like um a what if right a what if thing Like you know what if it it it continues To follow that again not my base case And and you know looking at things like Um you know the S&P struggling and and looking at like The Russell

Struggling i' I mean you know if you Were to if you were expecting a a left Translated Peak that goes into the Summer then I I would I would think that You would that would be on the back of Of traditional markets continuing to go Up but traditional markets are not going Up right now they're actually they've Started to go down um so that would be Something to look at I mean you can look At maybe this trend line here on the NASDAQ and see that you know for it to Hit that trend line it would still have To go down even even a little bit more Um for the S&P that same trend line um You know if you draw it out here it Would obviously be a lot further out if You take it to this one and just kind of Call that a a fake out it would still Have a little bit lower to go to Ultimately hit that trend line but yeah I mean I think that's where we stand and You know I really don't know if the left Translated peak's going to happen one Crazy idea is that there could be Scenario where the left translated Peak Is already in you know in March I mean The dot crash actually started in March Of the election year so that is that is A possibility again it's it's honestly Not my base case it's really not but it Is something to consider that when you Have these and one of the reasons why it Probably wouldn't be my base case is

Because the Bitcoin risk hasn't gone up All the way to the 0.9 to one wristband Um if Bitcoin does do something like That and it just continues to go up then Um then yeah I mean then you could have Then you could have that example but I'm Not I'm not I'm not seeing it at the Moment right I'm just not seeing it at The moment um I'm instead you're you're Just kind of seeing all Bitcoin pairs go Down and you're also seeing all USD Pairs go down right I mean a lot of These altcoins are are really struggling Here right I mean like madic is is Nowhere near you know where you would Expect to see some of these coins in a In a left translated cycle I mean in Fact it looks more like it's closer to Final capitulation than it is a a major Top you know um USD is only 50% off the Low or 100% off the lows right it's not In the grand scheme of things is not Like thousands of percent off the lows Right Ada Litecoin they're they're They're closer to their lows than they Are to their highs um so that's why I Would I would potentially argue that It's more likely that you're getting Closer to to the end of that than the Than I a potentially left translated Peak um but that is something that uh Sort of keep in mind Um for for at least a little bit longer So again not my base case uh but there

Are certainly things to think about it And there's there was one thing that I I I do look at from time to time is as Sort of like a uh a left Translated um uh evidence or something And that's the the launch the QQQ Um which you know tracks the NASDAQ it Actually launched in um you know here in 1999 it actually launched around 48 $48 U which is funny because when Bitcoin spot ETF launched it launched at 48k and then you can see that the spot ETF or sorry the the QQQ went all the way up to 120 so if Bitcoin were to go to 120 then maybe there's more evidence of A left translated Peak however when when This went from 48 to 120 it took it a Full year right I mean it it went it Took it from March until um you know Until the following March right so That's a long time and really it didn't Even get up into the 70s until November which was more than half a year After it launched Bitcoin has already Gone into the into the 70s and it did it Almost immediately after the launch Right so that's why you could you know You could there could be a left Translated Peak but maybe it still Doesn't occur until like the end of the Year or early next year again it's still I mean if it's early last year then it's Not really a left translated Peak it's

Just a normal Peak but um thus just some Evidence for the whole left translated Thing again I'm not a big proponent of The idea I respect the people that are Is the point right I respect the people That are and I value their opinion and So because they talk about it I find I Find it important and you know I will I'll continue to track it um but I also I also think that if at the end of the Day you know price action is King and Technically Bitcoin put in its top in November of 2021 not April so if you Take it from there you can kind of see That Bitcoin has a lot of wiggle room Here it could fall back in and still be On track with the prior Cycles so Imagine that happens if Bitcoin falls Back in as it falls back into the prior Cycles that's where Bitcoin dominance Tops and then Bitcoin continues its Rally but at that point it continues the Rally as Bitcoin dominance goes down That's kind of what I could see Happening um just sort of tie it all in And put a bow on it so we'll see we'll See what plays out hopefully you guys Enjoyed the content if you do make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out Into the cryptoverse premium and into Cryptoverse decom I'm losing my voice I Don't know how long the video is it's Probably too long I'll see you guys next

Time bye

Coinbase
OUR TAKE

Coinbase is a popular cryptocurrency exchange. It makes it easy to buy, sell, and exchange cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Coinbase also has a brokerage service that makes it easy to buy Bitcoin as easily as buying stocks through an online broker. However, Coinbase can be expensive due to the fees it charges and its poor customer service.

Leave a Comment

    • bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) $ 67,962.00 2.41%
    • ethereumEthereum (ETH) $ 3,806.84 2.87%
    • tetherTether (USDT) $ 0.999356 0.03%
    • bnbBNB (BNB) $ 594.43 3.59%
    • solanaSolana (SOL) $ 171.94 4.84%
    • staked-etherLido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,807.33 2.89%
    • usd-coinUSDC (USDC) $ 0.999901 0.07%
    • xrpXRP (XRP) $ 0.533945 0.68%
    • dogecoinDogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.159925 2.76%
    • the-open-networkToncoin (TON) $ 6.32 0.46%