Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but specifically We're going to be discussing the Bitcoin Dominance if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out into the crypto various Premium at into the if You're unaware of my general stance on The Bitcoin dominance which I don't Imagine many people are that watch this Channel but if you're unaware my general Expectation is that the bear market for Bitcoin will not end until we see the Dominance go up in a and as in really a A somewhat spectacular fashion okay That's my general thought on the market And we sort of saw a a glimmer of that Type of a move earlier in 2022 But if you notice this move started in January and it lasted until about June So essentially it lasted about half a Year or so Now what's interesting is this move Technically put in a higher high okay so We technically put in a higher high and If you look at these lows and this again This one's including stable coins if you Look at the lows on on the Bitcoin Dominance you can see that we were ever So subtly just putting in a slightly Lower low right in May of 2021 and then Again in September of 2021 and then in

January of 2022 and then finally again In September of 2022. We were also more or less putting in Lower highs right so if you look at at This pattern it's been going on for a Long time with the exception of the fake Out right here We were putting in a high A lower high And a lower high now this here was a Fake out right And arguably one of the main things that Led us back down this path back into Here Could be the merge right it could be the Ethereum merge however you could also Argue another potential cause or Something like this and sort of the the Prolonged move of the dominance of Bitcoin at the lower part of the range Was do in part to the nature of this Most recent Market cycle right a double Peak cycle so it's it's very dissimilar From what we've seen in the past and Arguably that has has continued to leave The dominance at low levels for a longer Period of time than we would otherwise Expect now one way to think about that Is to think about how normally when we Get a Mania phase there's not a whole Lot of people that buy in the grand Scheme of things now of course a lot of People YOLO in at the top and sort of The last people that come into the bull

Market before it's over But in terms of time spent at the top There's not that much time spent there So there's there's going to be a limited Amount of people that actually put money In there or large amounts of money at The top whereas in 2021 What happens we spent a long time at the Top right and we were talking months Meaning that a lot of people would have Had a lot of time to buy not only Bitcoin right but a lot of all coins at The top And instead of seeing a what I would Consider to say be more typical where You see the dominance go up relatively Quickly after the peak within like half A year so This time arguably it's taking about Twice as long all right now One of the interesting things is that it Is breaking out once again you can see How it's breaking out once again but I Want to draw your attention to again a Few similarities between you know this This um sort of this cyclical Behavior If you look at the the bull market sport Band which is something we talk about a Little bit for other assets and I don't Necessarily it's the most I don't think It's necessarily the most informative For for Bitcoin dominance but it's at Least somewhat useful to look at because There are still similarities between

What went on you know once upon a time In 2018 and and then again what's going On today right and what you'll notice Right which you'll notice In this case we saw the dominance drop Back down to around that 38 39 level Blast back up get rejected off the bull Market support band come back down find Support and then blast through okay That's what happened Same thing again right Support down here up to the bull market Support band rejection Found support at a higher low which Seems basically same story over here and Then again my general expectation is That for us to continue to move higher Now you know I right I am surprised Honestly that the dominance has stayed This low as long as it has and one of The biggest counterpoints and I'll I'll Say is because a lot of people say this Is that while they'll say this time is Different and they'll say you know There's a lot of altcoins in the space That provide real utility and you know It's it's not the same as it once was And then you look around and and you see So many scams going on in the space and You see what's you know what happened With FTX and and all the coins Associated with that and I mean There's a lot of of scans there's a lot Of fraud in the space now is there some

Truth To the space being more mature and the Altcoin market being more mature well I Would say there is but I would also Argue there's there's you know there's There's maturation of Bitcoin as well And and seen in a different light than It was back in 2017 2018. I think people Take it a little bit more seriously now Than they did back then So you could argue that while there has Been some maturity of of altcoins There's also been the majority of Bitcoin and I will pose this question to You because this was this was something That was said to me and it was and this Is sort of an argument in the other Direction as to why someone thought the Dominance was going to go down and it Was because of all the VC money right All this Venture Capital money coming Into space that would ultimately render Something like the dominance of Bitcoin Irrelevant because there's just simply So much more money coming in and they Mostly care about these other things not Bitcoin I would phrase it back the same way Right Despite the fact that so much money came Into crypto in 2021 despite this and Despite all the VC money that flooded The space through all these different All coins despite all of it the

Dominance was not even at least not at This point not even able to go below Where it was In 2018. despite all of that despite all That extra money coming in all the hype Generated with nfts and all this other Stuff Even though all of that happened even Though you have you know what happened With FTX right Where they claimed they were just you Know giving users notional Bitcoin Rather than real Bitcoin and and all This sort of stuff despite all of it the Dominance was not able To go Back to where it was in early 2018. so It makes me question that thesis you Know how serious can I take such an Argument if despite all of that You still don't see it and there's not You know a lot of the VC money came in Over the last couple years it's it's It's dried up considerably since then Well why well I mean cash isn't cheap is Is it's not as cheap as it was right Interest rates are higher and these Market Cycles are cyclical right I mean There's just not a lot of money pouring In right now because it's a bear market Now Long-term investors I'm sure are are Placing some long-term bets now and and You know over the next year or two but

At the end of the day there's not a ton Of money pouring in at this moment Compared to what was going on A year ago at the same time right I'm Not saying there's no money coming in But my point is despite everything we Were unable to put in a new low now one Way you guys know that I like to talk About the dominance is to exclude the Stable coin market right so this is a Chart that you can easily pull up on Trading View and it'll show you the Dominance right now is at 42 percent Right Now I would argue that there's some Similarities between where we are right Now here and where we are where we were Back over here but you might say well Ben back then the dominance was already At 44 now it's all the way down at 42 Percent right well one thing you have to Consider and I've said this many times Is the influence of stable coins and the Stable coin Market has has grown Exponentially basically Since you know since 2018. and so this Flight to safety which used to only be Bitcoin is now you know you can go to Stable coins and and therefore it'll Have some other effect so then of course One of the ways we look at the chart Is to remove stable coins from the Equation so this is the dominance of Bitcoin when you include stable coins

Right this is when you include it This is what it looks like when you Exclude stable coins What do you notice you know once again It's just simply one Higher low after Another over the span of a year and a Half going really longer than that if You want to go back to 2018 because We're still putting in higher lows from There one way to visualize it I I drew It on on one of these other tabs that I Have right here One of the ways to visualize it is like This this is a dominance excluding Stable coins you can see that it's over 48 right now what do you notice though Lower high lower high lower high lower High Again Lower High we're also putting in Higher lows We've been putting in higher lows since 2018. so then Where does this take us well one thing We could do is we could extend this time Frame out a few years and and kind of Imagine in our head that eventually These trend lines will meet now let me Be clear about something I am short-term To medium term bullish on the Bitcoin Dominance I also recognize that at the End of the day and once we get to a new Fresh cycle at a new bull market We will likely reach a point where the Dominance will go down again okay so I

Do anticipate that the Bitcoin dominance Is leaving this trend line behind for a While okay all right could we come back Down and test it again maybe but my Point is is I I don't think we're going To be spending too much more time down Here and I think we're going to be going Into a new phase of the market cycle Where the dominance and again this is Excluding stable coins that I think Including stable coins will also go up a Lot as well this is I think making a Huge break to the upside this was sort Of a glimpse back in the middle of 2022 Of what it was going to look like and it Came back down arguably because of some Of the hype around the ethereum merge And whatnot but also just because it was A double Peak cycle a lot more money in Takes a lot longer to unwind that money There's a lot more people to that have To capitulate right These other positions and so my argument Here is that what you'll likely see in My opinion again this is my opinion What you'll likely see is they move to The upside but I don't think that move Will initially get to the upper range Okay what I think is that we'll see a Move maybe halfway in between where Perhaps excluding stable coins it gets Up to 60 excluding stable coins it gets Up to sixty percent then it might Calm down for a while right and and all

Coins could run against Bitcoin for a Few months but then during bitcoin's Next Bull Run I think you'll see another Leg up to the top of the trend line If you look at the last cycle what You'll notice is the first leg up here Was during bitcoin's bear market right This was doing the the Bitcoin bitcoin's Bear market then it slowly trended down For a while right slowly for a while it Trended down and then it blasts it up Again Right you can see right here the Bitcoin Dominance blasted higher What was going on then in 2019 Bitcoin Went up like 4X and then it came back Down again and then it hit the top of The trend line when Bitcoin had that Parabolic rally you know in in late 2020 Okay so By the time you reach the top of the Trend line you're potentially looking at At sort of bitcoin's Um climactic move where it's made this Parabolic move to the top of of of the Bitcoin dominance trend line At which point a lot of people might Think all right well now it's time to Convert you know everything to bitcoin Because it's going parabolic but in a in Reality that's when you typically would Actually want to go back the other Direction you know so again a lot of People have called me a a Bitcoin Maxi

This year they're allowed to think that If you follow this channel for any Number of years you know that's not true I specifically said in the early parts Of 2022 that during a bear Market I put On my Bitcoin Maxi hat just simply Because I know how bad the altcoin Market can get during a Bitcoin bear Market and I also said you know and a Lot of the common response to that is Well bitcoin's also going down a lot as Well and it has and that's why I I've Just simply said cash is King this year Right like a cash is King most but not All altcoins will bleed against Bitcoin Right but Bitcoin likely leads against The US dollar why Because it's a bear Market you know We've talked about this a lot this Time-based capitulation component and we Even just recently broke down out of the Most recent Bear Flag we put out a video On this just uh you know a week or two a Week ago or so the time-based Capitulation component where everyone Gets fooled into buying the dip But we just keep going down and it's Just the the hard part is the time-based Capitulation not always price based if You're just price space it'd be easy Right you just you watch a drop you put In your money and then it goes back up Again that's not how it works it drops Over a long period of time it takes a

Long time for for people to sort of Capitulate out and what you'll see you Know with going back to the dominance Is you know the way this goes up if you Had to think about what are what are Some fundamental ways that it could go Up There's plenty right plenty regulation Fear for one thing bitcoin's a commodity Right Hopefully ethereum is a commodity Personally I hope eth is a commodity Would love that it would make my life a Lot easier than having to deal with it Potentially being a security I would Love it if your ethereum were a Commodity doesn't mean it's going to be One I know there are speculation and and You know some recent uh memos and Whatnot that sort of say that it is a Commodity but I still think until you Get that final say right like it is a Commodity and that's what it's going to Be you there's still going to be some Speculation regardless whether ethereum Is a commodity or not there still is a High risk of a lot of other coins being Securities okay On this you know this lawsuit with with Um the SEC and and ripple should be Quite informative for us and I don't I Mean I don't really know how this Lawsuit is going to end up but there is A there's a there's an idea that there

Could be a like an exodus or whatever I Mean look there's already been an exodus Right I mean we've been having an exodus All year from the altcoin market but There could be a continued one if if People start to worry that all of these All coins are going to be listed as Securities it doesn't even mean that They're going to be listed as that they Could easily be but there's a chance Where it doesn't happen like that But it doesn't mean there's not going to Be some type of panic in the market Before that happens so that's one Potential one potential reason Another potential reason that you could See the dominance go up from a Fundamental perspective and this one I I You know I'm going to catch some flock On but that's okay I you know it's my Channel I'm going to speak my mind uh Criticism down below right in the Comments section but One thing I've been thinking about a lot Is you know with these proof of stake Tokens I I like proof of stake right I Mean I think proof of work is is more Secure I mean it's not really I think Like I I mean okay I'll say I think I Think proof of work is more secure That's my opinion on the matter but it Doesn't mean that proof of stake doesn't Have interesting things to offer I think It does

But there's other ways to think about it As well okay So let's suppose you want to earn yield And and your you know investors are Always seeking out yield one of the nice Components of proof of stake tokens Like ethereum like eth right like like Cardano Etc right you go down the list there's a Lot of them right one of the nice things About them is that you can get some Yield right you can earn some interest Now a lot of times these These Cryptocurrencies are inflationary now I Know ethereum is is has has been moving Obviously in the opposite direction and And with a lot of ethereum burned this Is a a case for the Bulls for ethereum That it doesn't have to go down quite as Much but you could make the case that While the interest rates are high and We're talking where the FED funds rate Is over four percent or five percent or Whatever it makes the case for earning Yield on some proof of stake tokens less Attractive well why is that well One reason is because Fixed income investing in traditional Markets That just simply hasn't really been a Thing for a lot of investors like a lot Of millennial investors like myself Right I was one of the 90s okay and you Know ever since I've been an investor

I've never really seen rates this high So fixed income investing wasn't really A thing that I would ever spend too much Time considering because you know what Are you going to do you're going to put Your money in a quarter percent you know Who cares you know you're easily going To get chewed out by inflation in normal Times you know forget forget right now So What do you do well one attractive thing About about cryptocurrency about proof Of stake tokens especially a few years Ago is that you could actually earn Yield or there's a promise that that was What they were going to right and you Could earn yield and during a period of High interest rates that is not as Attractive because as as an investor if You have the option to you know to go Put your money and let's say you're not Like super into crypto but you're just Trying to figure out okay how do I earn Yield and they give you two options Option A is you just go put your money In a bank and you earn four to five Percent with some pretty safe Certificate of deposit right It's there right and you're probably not That worried that that this major bank That you've probably been using for 20 30 years is going to run off with your Money Option b is to put it in this you know

This this protocol That might not be the most easy to learn Right or the barrier to to getting into That is is going to take a lot of effort And then you might wonder well you know What if you lose your private keys what If what if what if right and you Probably see all the news headlines About FTX you're like I don't want to Get into that because you know look what Happens look at the risk you're taking On so then you could argue from a Fundamental perspective Earning interest on on some of these Tokens when we have high interest when We have a high interest rate environment It's not as attractive as it once was Okay now I know this is not going to sit Well with a lot of people and I am a Huge proponent of the crypto burst and I Think proof of stake will have its day Once again but in the meantime when We're looking at 2023 when one of the Most dovish members of the Federal Reserve or you know of fomc came out Today or you know within the last day or So and said that as a starting point They're considering keeping rates above You know five percent or at the terminal Rate for 11 months or more now whether You believe them or not is is up to you But the fact that a dovish member is Saying that should at least make you Think for a minute right you know

Perhaps markets are still Underestimating the resolve of the Federal Reserve and before you say you Know you shouldn't believe them I have Spent the entire year of 2022 listening To people telling me that the FED will Never go above three and a half percent Right how many times have you heard it You've heard it on you know my channel As well plenty of people have said it Right I have not said it right I mean I I've not said it I've been clear from The get-go that that you know I thought Five to five and a half I mean I really I used to say four to five percent but For the last several months I I've said I think the terminal rate is somewhere Between five to five and a half percent This debt to GDP argument Did not hold water right we went about Three and a half percent and here we are They could stay at these levels for a Long time okay now could they stay this Way for a year yeah it's potentially Possible I mean I they could stay this Way longer it just depends on what Happens next year does inflation come Back down or does it not and we don't Yet know the answer to that question if We go into a recession in short order it Probably comes down quickly if the U.S Economy is more resilient and and it Takes a lot longer it you know inflation Could be stickier and maybe unemployment

Doesn't go up as soon a lot a lot of Factors to consider that but when you Think about when you think about this You have to think about what are the Fundamental reasons that would drive Someone into proof of stake well they Probably like crypto and they want to Earn yield now you can go earn yield in A bank and you can get about what you Can get in a lot of these a lot of these Staking platforms now I know some of Them offer higher higher rates but we're Also at a time right now I think where a Lot of people don't always trust some of The higher rates that some of these Platforms can offer you know some of These protocols can offer because the Higher the rate you know alarm Bells Start going off right I mean like think About what happened to to to Luna right Think about what happened to to UST so This is a fundamental reason right People always want me to talk about more Fundamentals and not just stare at the Charts but these are fundamental reasons Why you have to consider there could be Some inherent weakness in the altcoin Market in 2023 with respect to bitcoin Furthermore there's also just this idea Of a lot of these altcoins that have These really high market caps there's Not really a lot of liquidity there and So the minute there's like a rush to Sell the market cap can come down very

Quickly because the price can can come Down very quickly and the price comes Down very quickly because the order Books are thin all it takes is a few Large cells and and you could be down 10 Percent I mean that's basically what Happened you know in the last few hours I mean right now it shows these prices Are all up because we just started a new Day at the time that I'm recording this Video by the time you see it it might Even be another day later after that but A lot of these coins just dropped a lot Right like eight is at 26 Cents dots Below five dollars so Lana's at twelve Dollars you know Litecoin points back to Sixty six dollars and so on and so forth There's still been a lot of weakness in The altcoin market and if you see this Continue It would not take very long for the Dominance to start to really move higher I mean look what it did in the span of a Week so far it started this week off at 40.8 percent and now it's above 42 Percent and this is just within the last Week Imagine this altcoin Reckoning phase Goes on for another two to three months That's exactly what happened over here Okay Bitcoin went sideways all right Bitcoin Went sideways during that phase Right here Bitcoin was going sideways

The dominance went up why because the Altcoin market was bleeding okay so Again I know I'm gonna be accused of Being a Bitcoin Maxi you know for a long Time but I've been honest with you guys From the start I put on my maxi hat and Bear markets I don't really care Um you know about the you know the Claims that I am one it's just and I I've seen the destruction of all coins And I I know how bad it can get in a Bear Market that's why back in in q1 in February in fact I put out a video Saying the tips for for navigating the Bear Market in that video I said all Coins are risky I discussed the idea Right of if you're if you're considering Buying all coins it probably would be Better to take a cold shower and Reconsider throughout 2022 because They're just simply falling knives is What they are right and let's go take a Look at a few of them right don't take My word for it let's go take a look at a Few of them so and let's look at their Bitcoin pairs first and maybe you can Start to see how they could come down so Much this is Ada Bitcoin so I'm going to Start with an altcoin that I've even Spoken about on my channel what some of My earliest videos were on Adat two Cents and I said I think it's a good buy Below 10 cents for the next Bull Run no Buts right I mean it was

Um but what you'll notice is that these Things are often cyclical and the Ada Bitcoin valuation If you want to argue that it's an Oscillator which you can art you can you Can make that claim and there's a good Chance that it is right you can argue That ADA Bitcoin is potentially an Oscillator what does it mean to Oscillate though what does that mean Right well it goes up and down and up And down Look In 2018 right higher low higher low Higher low capitulation Higher low Higher low higher low It's already starting right I mean it's It's clear as day right if you take a Measure move from this point it's still Another 70 down on its Bitcoin pair now I will remind you that this move right Here back in 2018 was actually this Final move to the lower range was not Because Bitcoin it was not because Ada Was going down against the US dollar Ada Was actually going up against the US Dollar during you know during this Period Throughout part of this phase right here The reason At least maybe early on right Ada was Going up against the US dollar but Bitcoin was outperforming Ada

So the way that it got this massive move To the downside Was because Bitcoin was going up quicker So Ada Bitcoin doesn't have to fall this Entire way just because Bitcoins in a Bear market right it could maybe it Falls you know down to this level this Is the level right here that marked the Bitcoin USD bottom so let me let me Highlight that just so you can kind of See what I'm talking about okay so this Low right here on Ada at 850 satoshi's Or so that marked the Bitcoin USD bottom Right here If you draw the line in the sand across That gets you right there How far would Ada Bitcoin have to fall To get to that level about another 46 Percent or so but you can look at this For like every single altcoin it's not Just Ada it's so there's so many of them That have this very similar structure go Take a look at um Avalanche there's a Coin we talked about plenty of times Right Same thing right higher lows it breaks Eventually and there's a lot of air down Below right and if this is an oscillator You know maybe this first impulsive move Is not where it comes back to and the Reason you might argue that it's not and It's not really rationalizing it I Easily think it could go all the way Back down

But if you look at like ethereum's Bitcoin valuation Um and and you go back Far enough you'll notice that that first Impulsive move we did not make it all The way back down you know to this level Down here we sort of came somewhere in Here after this you know after this sort Of first intermediate or intermediate Bull market so there's a chance that you Know avax only comes down to maybe these Levels right here but at the same time There's a difference this was an entire Bull market right Um like this was not Um like for for ethereum's uh ethereum's USD evaluation it was basically in a Bull market the entire time and avax I Know this so this initial move in 2020 In early 2020 I believe Avalanche was I Don't really know exactly what it was Doing back then Um on its US dollar pair I know a lot of All coins are really struggling back in In Q4 and anytime they went up Bitcoin Would go up a little bit and some of the All coins would get spooked anytime Bitcoin would drop but look I mean you Could argue while there are some Differences there's also a lot of Similarities and so you know is there a Chance that this you know that this here Is somewhat similar to to this move on Avax right and that you see another move

Down that's still higher than this one But even if you do it's still another Move down right where the where the Bitcoin valuation of the Bitcoin Dominance could go up Solana another Example we talked about this one a lot There's been people telling you to buy The dip on Solana all year what has it Gotten you right I mean it's just a Falling knife It's a falling knife Don't fall for this stuff right it's a Way to get you hyped up and to make you Feel good about it and then when it goes Down again what do they say they just Say oh just buy the dip It's easy to say buy the dip but how do You buy the dip if you've been buying The dip all year right like it's one Thing to say it and it's another thing To do it so buying the dip during an During a bear Market it just simply is Not that great of a strategy for the Altcoin market now the Counterpoint Could be well you don't know what you're Talking about because uh all coins will Go back to New all-time highs eventually This is a common thing I see here well They'll eventually make it to New All-time highs a lot of them won't right I mean I hope I hope that your altcoin Does I not I'm not wishing anything Negative against you but I have seen so Many altcoins come and go never to rise

Between all-time highs again there's a Good chance that the next bull market a Lot of the new all coins that go Parabolic might not even exist today Right they might not even exist right Now so to assume that all these altcoins Necessarily have to go to new all-time Highs just because you like their Community and just because you think It's fundamentally sound doesn't mean a Thing right it just simply doesn't mean A thing plenty of all coins have come And gone that that people have people Thought the same exact thing and where Are they now In the crypto graveyard right no one Even no one even knows their names Anymore and if you were to start to Mention some of them from 2013 World coin made safecoin BBQ coin most People don't even know what these are Right because they're relics of a past Cycle they're relics of a past cycle in The same way the next bull market some Of the altcoins today will be relics of A past cycle in a few years when we're In the in a new bull market whenever That occurs let's say it's two years From now or something when we're at like The peak of a new bowl When that happens if and when that Happens there's going to be some all Coins today that you might mention to Someone that that's a new investor at

That time they'd be like what are you Talking about what is that They're not going to care about it Because there's going to be new shiny Objects at the time a lot of these new Projects though will not launch until After the bear Market's over this is a Common marketing tactic right you don't Launch it during the bear Market because It's very optically bad to launch an Altcoin and and then to watch a bleed For a while it makes investor confidence Go away what they do a lot of people do This they wait until the bear Market's Over maybe even halfway through the Accumulation phase and then they launch It because they recognize that people Are much more likely to look at the Chart and say hey it looks like it's Just going sideways and slightly up it Doesn't have such a huge catastrophic Drop in the past so therefore they're a Little bit more interested in it So you have to think about this from a Lot of different angles so fundamentally Speaking not only do you have a higher Interest rate area right where a higher Ed straight regime right now by the Federal Reserve courtesy of of the Federal Reserve because inflation is High so it's going to make it less Attractive I think for certain yields in Cryptocurrencies not only because you Can get similar yield outside of crypto

But also because a lot of people don't Trust crypto right now it's likely going To take a year I'm just being honest With you I could I could sit here and Tell you we're going to go you know Things are going to be peachy tomorrow Or I could just tell you what I think And what I think is that 2023 is is Going to still be a difficult year it Doesn't mean we're going to have nearly As much downside as we had in 2022 but You're still going to have a lot of People you know really start to question Crypto and a lot of times it takes about A year of going sideways after the bear Market year before we can really start To gear up and have that confidence for A new bull run right it takes about a Year During that time sentiment goes down as The social risk goes down If we go take a look at the indicator Dashboard as the social risk goes down The Bitcoin dominance usually goes up If you look at Bitcoin dominance Over here In 2018 you'll notice that it really Started to go up In you know in May June July and August And if you go take a look at the social Risk it was during that time that the Social risk was really starting to Capitulate here and by July the the Social risk was actually below 0.3 so

There's this argument that perhaps it Takes the social risk going below 0.3 For the dominance to really fly look at It when you color coded over the price Of ethereum similar move right the dead Cap bounced back up we come back down we Sort of plan the sandbox a little bit Over here where everyone thinks we're Going to go back to New all-time highs And then it just breaks down as social Sentiment leaves the cryptos you get a Leg down that's when the altcoin market Bleeds That's where I think we're close to Today I think we're already in it right But I I think you can make the case that That's more or less what's going on Right now and that um Now there's a good chance here that over The coming weeks you're going to see a Continued drawdown in in you know the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation and a lot of All Bitcoin valuations because they're Going back to bitcoin and they're going Back to stable coins and so you know This would be reflected in the dominance Of Bitcoin going up both including Stable coins and excluding stable coins Including stable coins my guess is that It's going to Rally off and on uh for a While maybe up to the 50 to 55 percent Level cool off for you know potentially Four to six months or something and then After that I still think it could

Continue this move Higher and then perhaps it finally comes Back down We'll see what happens Um So we have the regulation stuff we have Regular regulatory risk we have the the High interest rate regime risk right so People are going to be a little bit less Interested and then you know I think the Other idea too is that Um a lot of retail investors that that Are are more likely to capitulate at This point I think are probably more Likely to capitulate all coins Um than Bitcoin because you come to that Realization that like Bitcoin kind of Stays around no matter what a lot of all Coins come and go and so you know it's Hard for people to to to really get you Know too excited about every single Litecoin because there's no guarantees That they're necessarily ever going to Make an all-time highs hopefully a lot Of them will but if history has taught Us anything is that a lot of them will Not and a lot of the new all coins that Do well will just simply be new altcoins From a new cycle and not the relics from A prior cycle there are exceptions Cardano is one that put a new all-time High in 2017 and 2018 it also put in an All-time high in 2021. this is one of The few coins I I thought was going to

Put in you know one of the few relics From the last cycle that I thought was Going to put in a new Ultima and it did And I'm happy that it did but you can go Out on the list right A lot of these all Coins are are really struggling you know If you go look at like the dot Bitcoin Valuation you will see similar things Right it's like we already showed you Ada Bitcoin it's a lot of Bitcoin Avax Bitcoin look at dot Bitcoin same Idea right higher lows it breaks nothing But air below What else You can take a look at B and B Bitcoin Here's an interesting one because this One's been doing a lot better recently But I would argue that we're at a very Similar spot is right here what you'll Notice about these similarities right You tag the trend line once You tag it again what happened on the Second tag of the trend line over here It was June Of 2018. what happened in June of 2018 Right here Dominance started shooting up That's where BNB Bitcoin was rejected it Came back down You might say well Huh put in a higher low and then it went Higher could that happen again that Could what's the narrative to support Something like that well right now we're

In the phase I think where everyone's Scared about is is you know like about What's going to happen with binance There's a lot of fun and whatnot and Whether it's true or not I have no idea I have no insight into into what's going On over there Doesn't mean it's not going to have Sufficient momentum to bring the Valuation of BNB Bitcoin down for a Little bit If BNB Bitcoin comes down And the bear Market eventually ends Right let's say it ends sometime like Early next year or something And then people are like oh yeah maybe They're solvents right maybe maybe you Know maybe they are right then it could Go back up but what if they're not Solvent right then it doesn't go back up Right and it just goes down It's not at risk I'm willing to take Maybe you want to take it I have no idea I have no idea if if they're solvent or Not and and frankly I don't really care Right I don't really care I mean if if It comes back down and they survive then It'll be a point for them Um you know going into the next bull Market if if clearly things are amiss Then the market will sniff it out and The market will punish them for it so That's you know that's the potential Narrative that could support a move back

Up to the trend line again after the Bear Market's over Um is this something that you should Necessarily Bank on probably not okay And you could I mean you could look at a Lot of different altcoins right I mean a Lot of different all coins have very Similar patterns Um and and so on and so forth but Hopefully this is useful I hope I Haven't rambled too long But this is my general expectation on The Bitcoin dominance and you know I I Think as um I think as we as we continue to push Further out a lot of this stuff will in Fact you know become uh a bit more Obvious right and of course the other The other examples that I could I could Say are that you know with recession Fears and all that sort of stuff of Course you have to you have to always be Wondering like how are all coins going To hold up in a recession if people have Tapped into their savings and whatnot Are they really going to go out spend a Lot of money on all coins by the way one Way to better visualize the dominance With stable coins and without stable Coins to to look at the Divergence of These two metrics look at it like this Once upon a time they gave you the same Result Now they don't now they don't and you

Can see how big that Divergence is If you zoom in the Bitcoin dominance Excluding Stables is like 48 but Including Stables it's it's much lower Right on this chart it's down at 40 Percent on trading view it's at 42 Percent so you can see just how much These two metrics diverged over the last Year or so and arguably it's one of the Reasons why the dominance is not already Much higher on trading view you know a Lot of people say well the dominance is Low My response is well it's not because all Coins haven't been bleeding against Bitcoin right it's just because the Stable coin Market is is a much larger Share now of the overall market cap than It used to be again go to basically any All Bitcoin chart and most of them are Down from their peaks in 2021 like Ada Bitcoin is down and it's not just down a Little it's down a lot it's down 75 Percent this is against Bitcoin that Also dropped like 77 itself Ada Bitcoin Is down 75 to 76 even ethereum which has Been holding up better than most Is still down this year right it's still Down 11.3 percent and from the Peak from The peak that it had in um in 2021 where It went almost up to 0.09 it's down About at 21 22 or so so it's still down Not down a lot at least yet I do think The ethereum Bitcoin valuation has a

Good bit further to fall dot Bitcoin Right same idea and you can you can Basically look at most most altcoins not All most of them are down significantly Right so the reason the dominance of a Bitcoin including stable coins is not Higher isn't just because all coins Haven't bled against it it has it's just That the stable coin Market has grown Significantly but even with that said You are finally starting to see the Bitcoin dominance including stable coins Break out to the upside and in the same Way you are you're starting to see the Dominance excluding Stable coins Break out to the upside as well and as I Said it's been you know the dominance Excluding stable coins has still simply Been putting in higher lows all year Long so hopefully you guys like the Content hopefully it's been helpful Towards you in this bear Market Those cold showers I think have been Paying off but um we'll have to get Someone to fix the water heater before Too long thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe if you're not Subscribed give the video a thumbs up I'll see you guys next time bye


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