Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin more specifically we're Going to be discussing the Bitcoin Dominance of course we will talk about How Bitcoin USD relates to that as well As the altcoin market if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse outcom we have thousands of Different charts for all all sorts of Different cryptocurrencies equities Macro as well so make sure you guys Check that out link is in the Description Below this featur link film will be Going Through many different ideas okay and What I want to do is I want to go Through all of them systematically talk About likely outcomes different paths And and so on and so forth now the first Thing I will say is that as always the The the main questions that come up with With Bitcoin dominance is how can I use It to make money right how can I use it To make money and it is a fair question If you are new to the crypto space right If you're new to the Cryptoverse and and you've only been Here for a year even if you joined in

2021 and you haven't seen a full cycle Of Bitcoin dominance take Place it might not necessarily be Obvious Why Bitcoin dominance is important but The reason why Bitcoin dominance is Important is because my goal over a long Period of time is to preserve the Satoshi valuation of my Portfolio and a lot of people will go Out and speculate on the altcoin market And I think that's fine and I do it you Know I I will do that as well you know I I speculate on all at various phases of The cycle as well but the point at the End of the day is to preserve the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio There's a lot of people that will Compare uh make the comparison of say Bitcoin to to like Myspace or AOL Implying that it's it will sort of go The same way and be overtaken by by Other Cryptocurrencies I don't think that's True you know Bitcoin has been number One in the space the entire time it has Not relinquished that number one spot And I don't think it's going to Relinquish that number one spot if Bitcoin did not exist then these other Cryptocurrencies would not be along for The ride so with that in mind it's Important to to understand long-term Trends in Bitcoin dominance now the

Crazy thing about the Dominance is because of the way the Market moves it it feels like over the Last two years like it's always felt for A lot of people that the dominance is Not going up but then when you zoom out And you're like well it has been going Up a lot and it's just that what happens Is after we get large moves up that Happen fairly aggressively you then Consolidate for a while and then people You know people get bearish on it and Say well the dominance the dominance View um you know should be different but Look up Consolidate up consolidate right we just Keep doing the same thing sometimes we Get pretty large Pullbacks and and longer consolidation Periods but the overall trend by Bitcoin Dominance has been very clear for a very Long period of time in fact Bitcoin Dominance started turning up before Bitcoin USD did right if you include Stables dominance bottomed in September Of 2022 if you exclude stable coins it Actually bottomed in May of 2021 um that Would be this chart over here this is an Approximation of it we of course also Have it on the end of the cryptoverse Website as well but if you look at it Excluding Stables it actually bottomed Over here in May of 2021 so it's Important right it's important to

Recognize that this has been a a Long-term Trend that has been going That's been taking place for years and For a long time people have not believed In the Bitcoin dominance rally they just Have refused to believe it and they all They they know they sort of chased these Other these these altcoins and what I Have found what I have found over the Last two years is that the people that Used to be bearish on bitcoin dominance They don't talk about it as much anymore They just they focus on on the altcoins But again if you were bullish on alts a Year ago but bearish on bitcoin Dominance then it's you know you're Right before the wrong reasons right the Only reason that that these Altcoins um have have have a lot of them The only main reason that they've gone Up is because Bitcoin went up right and We know that because the dominance has Gone up so much if on the other hand if Bitcoin were sitting at 53k like it is And dominance were at say 40% then that would be a completely Different story that would imply that You know the altcoin market is carrying Is carrying the space but that's simply Not true right the Bitcoin dominance has Been going up the entire time and this Is something we've been talking about Forever I mean here's a video from you Know this is back when the dominance was

At 40.6% and talking about you know if You exclude stable coins we're putting In higher lows by the way if we go check In on this chart if you go check in on That chart right there and we take a Look at dominance here and we're going To exclude Stables you can see what it's done right I mean again going back to the Chart This was back when it was you know maybe About 45 46 or so 45 46% now you go Check on it today it's at 56% right it's Come all the way off of these levels Over here and it's way up here now right So it's gone up 10% since that video and This was a video back when I was very Vocal about like guys these are higher Lows by dominance and you have to Respect that it is putting in higher Lows whether you want to believe it or Not and now the dominance is up another 10% from that level right from that Level and then we did another video not Too long Later saying Hey look it's probably Going to to fall back in into September Of 2022 bottom out in September of 2022 And then turn the corner and if you go Look at at Bitcoin Dominance just go take a look look at Where it bottomed out right bottomed out Right there in September this is the Hiashi Candles so this same this same chart

That we were looking At down into September turn the corner And then Bitcoin dominance should go on A massive Bull Run theoretically you Know to around that 60% level and then When you look back on it you can see That yeah I mean it turned the corner in September right that was where it turned The corner moved back up put in a higher Low And it's been going up ever since so That has played out as well and we Continue on right here's a video that we Did back in in March of 2022 or sorry March of 2023 dominance was at 48.6% One Shining Moment in honor of the uh March Madness stuff and you know this was back When it was fighting to get back above That level now if you go check in with That we'll see what actually happened Um and it and and it might not be what You Think what actually happened going into That if we draw the line across the Screen what actually happened when we Did that video is that we got rejected At the range high in the short term Right and so looking at it Here this was this was in you know going Up into into March and in April and we Got rejected and at the time I I had so Many people dunking on me about the Dominance view right so many people and It was very frustrating because it's

Like well these are the same guys that Were bearish on it over here and now They're dunking on me because it has Gotten rejected by the Range High and They were calling for alt season because Dominance was going to get Rejected it didn't get rejected right so That should be a clear indication that There's been a shift right A lot of People shifted from being bearish on Bitcoin dominance to then no longer Talking about it because it kept on Breaking the Milestones that they said It would never break and so yes it is True that that video One Shining Moment Bitcoin Dominus One Shining Moment was Put out and we we saw a Rejection Still few weeks later we broke through And then following that right following That video we did it because a lot of Times people say well you only make Dominance videos when it's going Up what about this video right we made This video when dominance had pulled Back to 49% right so this the the Dominance had rallied up to 52% it then Came back down to 49% where yet again everyone was dunking On the Bitcoin dominance View and what Happened we said look it'll probably Hold Support at the breakout at the breakout Point which also happens to correspond

To the bull market support band right This was when it was at 49% and you go Take a look at it and that's what Happened right I mean it it came back in It held support at 49% and moved up Aggressively over the next several Months and so we go back to this idea Where there's so many people that keep Saying that Bitcoin dominance has Topped but they will say it every step Of the way right every step of the way That's what they're going to say because How can you say you know how it's hard For a think a lot of people to to shift Gears on it because if they were bearish On it over here and if they were bearish On it right here and bearish on it right Here right I mean at some point they'll Be right right and it'll top out but It's important to recognize what would Actually make the dominance top Out and there's a lot of people that Think it has already topped out I don't Really think those people are any Different than the people that thought It topped out back in the summer of 2023 But they're still there and and so in This video I want to show why I think Dominance can continue the rally right I Think it can continue to rally and by The way I fully expect all the same Comments on on Twitter X you know Dunking on these views once again but

For my own sanity I I do you know it's It's important to go back and look at at Every one of these prior moves by Dominance where every time you know at 40% at 41% at at 48% at 49% right every Step of the way people have faded have Faded the Bitcoin dominance rally okay And so in this Video I will Show why I think it will continue to Climb right why dominance will in my Opinion why I think it will continue to Climb and I also wanted to make a video Um you know when it's not pushing to new Highs right like we're only at 52 to 53% Right 52.7 4% we're not at new highs We're still pretty far away from New Highs for at least this cycle but I I Think it is certainly possible that Dominance could break above that 55% threshold it's just been a very long Journey and it's taken certainly a lot Longer than than I thought it would but It is still taking place So the first thing I I I would like to Do is to go check in with a lot of Different metrics so the first thing is We will check in with total assets held By the Federal Reserve okay so if you Look at that and let me Actually shift that to a new scale if You look at that we can pretty clearly See that last cycle dominance did not Even top until the FED stopped reducing

The size of their balance sheet now Could it be a coincidence it's possible Right it's only one data point it's only One it's not like we can definitively Say that it will play out in a in a in a Similar manner but be that as it May looking at this View and saying all Right what if what if we just stayed Bullish on dominance until the FED Pivots would that have been a good Strategy yeah I think so I mean imagine If over here you just said all right Liquidity is going to start going Down bullish on dominance until the FED Pivots dominance has been going up right So yeah it's only a single data point I'm not asking you to take it to the Bank they won't cash it in I can Guarantee you that but the point is that So far had you held that view of Dominance higher until we go back to QE You wouldn't have been Wrong yes you could say well what if Dominance is already topped that's That's potential but I I still will make The case why I think it will continue to Go higher if if you read the recent you Know the the recent fomc minutes while I Have suggested they will eventually slow The pace of QT down they haven't really Outright said they're going to stop it Anytime soon so if they're not planning On stopping it in March April May June If right from not planning on stopping

It for a long time I don't see a Compelling reason to change my view on Bitcoin dominance the other thing that You can look at are interest Rates if you look at interest rates we Will see that dominance did not even top Out until after the first fed cut so why Would I assume that dominance tops out This cycle before rate cuts and before The shift to QE I don't assume it right I assume that dominance will continue to Go up so long as we haven't gone back to Lower rates and so long as we haven't Shifted away from QT quantitative Tightening to QE where the FED starts to Expand the balance sheet we have not Seen seen either of those things happen Yet and last cycle we had to have seen Those things before the dominance even Topped out and by the way even after all That happened we still had another rally Later on where the dominance swept the High that is not what I'm referring to In this video I'm not referring to that Sort of a move I think we are about to Enter into this move that move I think Will come a lot later but that is is is Where I think we are and I think we are Slowly building out a base to see the Dominance go ultimately um much higher And and one of the things that's really Interesting is if you look at what Dominance was doing as those you know as Those First Rate Cuts slowly started to

Arrive or start you know started to be Priced in dominance was actually putting In lower highs right and and I know a Lot of people have been pointing that to Right here right like dominance keeps on Putting in lower highs and that's true Right like it's true but you'll notice That you had a high a lower high and a Lower high and then on the fourth Attempt the dominance finally broke Through right we've already had one Attempt two attempts three attempts I'm Under the impression that on the next Attempt by dominance I think it could Very well break through that doesn't Mean it has to happen tomorrow it I mean It it's possible that it comes all the Way back down into the 51 range before Going back up I don't know but the point Is that this exact Trend happened last Cycle just before the FED started to cut Interest Rates and you can see that dominance Finally broke through that that Level three months before the first Straight cut Arrived so I think that this is Ultimately what's about to happen is That dominance will soar right before The First Rate cut arrives and again Here dominance started to sore in April Of 2019 and it did not stop until September Now it's almost March right it's almost

March and it's possible again that Dominance is not breaking this trend Line just yet right it's possible that It could go into another period where it It slowly bleeds but Regardless even if it does that I still Think it will ultimately break out to The upside right so either it breaks out Here and goes up or it could come back In to you know to that 51 51 and a half% Level and then break up in fact if you Look at at at dominance on a on a longer Sort of trend line right if we look at It on this trend line right here what You'll see is That it it Hasn't you know it it really has just Continued this series of of higher lows And on shorter time frames if you take It from like right Here it almost looks like we're in an Ascending triangle right now right it it Sort of looks like we're in an ascending Triangle where first dominance held Support at 49% and then it held support At 51% and it's trying to break above that 54% threshold but has been unable to do So yet and so you know if it falls in Here as long as it as long as it's not Coming back into like the 49% level I Still think the dominance Trend remains Intact and I I think ultimately it will Build up to this to this level here

And break up that is my view on on the Bitcoin dominance and I I think that's Ultimately where it is it is headed Inevitably anytime these videos come out Tons of people dunk on them tons of People do it but again if you go look at What any of them were saying a year ago Six months ago two years ago about Bitcoin dominance they were bearish on It every step of the way right so yes It's easy to do it it's easy to dunk on The dominance and the reason why I think A lot of people dunk on it and I and the Reason why I won't stop talking about it But I think the reason people dunk on it Is because they want to see their Altcoins durably outperforming and the Thing is some of them do right some Altcoins do outperform Bitcoin even in a Bitcoin dominance rally but what what's More important over over you know what Will what will we really focus on right Are we going to focus on like you know The few altcoins that have durably Outperformed Bitcoin or do we focus on The fact that the trend by Bitcoin Dominance has been up for two Years yes some altcoins have Outperformed one of the issues with the Altcoins that outperformed is it tends To rotate which ones are actually Outperforming right so the ones that are Outperforming it this year are often not The ones that were outperforming it last

Year and and we've actually seen that Happen many many times for instance for Instance let's go through a few examples And and better understand why preserving This associ valuation of your portfolio Is important so madic Bitcoin right look At madic Bitcoin if you go back a year Ago right if you look at like say 2022 And early 2023 madic Bitcoin was Outperforming but look what it's doing Now it's doing not a lot of anything Right if you were to look at madic USD this was a fairly impressive rally This one hasn't been as impressive Especially considering that Bitcoin is Is you know I mean it's back near its Highs and madic is nowhere near its Highs right so yes madic USD went up a Lot over here everyone was you know Super bullish on it but it faded all the Way back down near the range lows and it Still hasn't really gone anywhere so Madic was one that did really well back Over here against Bitcoin but now it's Not right and again that can be viewed Better on the madic Bitcoin Chart over here madic Bitcoin was doing Really well over here not so much right So the point is that by holding madic Over Bitcoin you haven't been preserving The satosi devaluation of your portfolio Anytime recently right anyone who who's Been buying it all the way down I mean They just would have been better off

Buying Bitcoin now look at another Example look at at some of these coins That have done really well this year Right like avalanch has done pretty well This year and it's been doing a lot Better this year than it did last year Right so like last year in that same That same window where madic was doing Well Avalanche wasn't really doing much Of anything now this year and late 2023 Avalanche has been doing a Lot but it didn't do that same over here And then if you go look at the avac Bitcoin valuation what do you notice you Notice that it still hasn't really Durably changed the trend right I mean This has been a fairly impressive move By Avalanche don't get me wrong and I Hope that It ultimately survives but the Point is that it has still bled against Bitcoin over a long enough period of Time yes if you cherry pick this level Here it's up but the issue is that at The current valuations of aax Bitcoin You know unless you YOLO everything in Right here you're still not doing that Well right you're still you know looking At this move that has not been Recaptured and and so you can kind of go Through the list and see how some of the Ones that are doing well against Bitcoin This year are the ones that were not Doing well against Bitcoin last year and Vice versa so what happens is that

People end up chasing right they chase An altcoin because it's doing well Against Bitcoin like madic they chase it Because it was doing well against Bitcoin and then it just bleeds right so People trade in their alts for one That's doing well that marks the top for That all and then the ones they left you Know maybe they get a turn eventually um And so what happens is these altcoins You know one goes up against Bitcoin Everyone say dunks on the Bitcoin Dominance views that I have and then Next year they're just dunking on the Dominance views but for a different Altcoin right and so it's just chasing One new shiny object after another but In the entire time the dominant the Bitcoin was going up so the reason why Dominance is important is because it Helps to preserve the Satoshi valuation Of your portfolio so that if you want Exposure to crypto and you just have a Bitcoin heavy portfolio it gives you Exposure to the upside while minimizing Your downside risk right so that's why For the last couple of years my crypto Portfolio has just been Bitcoin heavy Because I've been under the assumption That dominant a bitcoin's going to go up I don't really care that much if an Altcoin pumps here or there I'd rather Preserve the satos devaluation of my Portfolio and that is exactly what I've

Done right being Bitcoin heavy has Helped preserve it because if had I gone With any of these altcoins most of them Are down against Bitcoin now I think Sometimes it's a little abstract for People to understand because um we're Looking at like Satoshi valuations of These altcoins like a to bitcoin you're Looking at like the Satoshi valuation of It so it's kind of hard to understand Like what it even means what what's a Really useful exercise is to say take The inverse of it and and and pretty Clearly see how like today one Bitcoin Would fetch you 88,000 Ada you know in a Year ago so if we were to go to February Of 2023 one Bitcoin would fetched you 57,000 Ada right a year before that February one Bitcoin would have fetched You 36,000 adaa so do you see the do you See the trend right so let's look at it February 2022 right there 38,000 Ada February 2023 60,000 Ada or so Today 880,000 So what is the trend right what is the Trend it's going up right but this is The inverse Ada Bitcoin meaning Bitcoin Has been outperforming Ada so that's how you preserve the Satoshi valuation of your Portfolio by being Bitcoin Heavy right because yes there's going to Be some altcoins you miss out on but

Having it allows you to at least Preserve the valuation of your portfolio And I'm not saying you can't speculate On alts it's just that you have to Understand that given over a long enough Period of time a lot of these altcoins End up bleeding back to bitcoin Especially during a a tightening cycle And so this has been a pretty clear Trend it's not just that I mean look Look at look at madic and let's look at At one over madic Bitcoin You know this is one of those ones that February 2023 one Bitcoin would have fetched you About 16,000 madic today it gets you About 52,000 Madic all you had to do is stick with Bitcoin avac Bitcoin take the Inverse February 2022 one Bitcoin got You 500 avac February 2023 When Bitcoin got you around 1,300 that's About where it is today but still you Know what ends up happening and and What's very frustrating for me is that You get you occasionally get these Larger moves up and then everyone Measures the performance from that level There disregarding the fact that most People were were you know dcing into it Over there against Bitcoin and um Completely losing the Satoshi valuation Of their portfolio dot Bitcoin another Great example um of all this right look

At one over dot Bitcoin where was it in February of 2022 right one Bitcoin got You 2,000 dot February 2023 one Bitcoin Got you 3500 dot February 2024 one Bitcoin gets you 6,700 Dot has buying polka dot been Lucrative you might say well it's at $8 So if you bet the family farm on it Right here AT3 or $4 hey you're up 2x Congratulations right congratulations You're up 2x the problem right the Problem is that dot Bitcoin has been Going down so you took on more risk and You're still down 85% against Bitcoin so Yes I mean congratulations for being up 2x if you bought the lows and I mean That sincerely right like you took on a Risk and it paid off the problem is that It still has just been bleeding back to Bitcoin over a long enough period of Time and I think you know everyone wants To keep front running where the Dominance tops right they keep trying to Front run it and say all right well now It's going to top you know it's going to Top at at at at 45% or 49 or 53 or 55 Whatever they want to front run it Because no one wants to miss out on this Alt season this nebulous alt season Where altcoins durably outperform Bitcoin but the problem as I specified Earlier with that view is that it Implies it implies that the dominance Rally is is over it implies that retail

Is coming back in mass and there's two Issues with that issue number One is that during the 2019 Bitcoin Dominance rally retail did not come back In Mass and dominance continued to go up Until the FED Pivoted second thing is there's no Guarantee about what the future holds Right all we know right now is that the Dominance has been in an uptrend for a Long time and momentum is a hell of a Thing and it's hard to fade that right I Mean yes it's possible that the Dominance rally doesn't extend as high As I think but at the same time I still Think it's a win for anyone who's been Following the Bitcoin dominance rally Because it has helped you to preserve The Satoshi valuation of your Portfolio now we have to talk about eth Bitcoin because I've been getting a lot Of messages about this eth Bitcoin has Had a fairly remarkable rally over the Last couple of weeks but I said Previously that after testing these Levels down here right after testing These levels what often happens is that E Bitcoin bounces for a few months right And so back in June when we were un or Sorry back in January when we were Unable to durably go Below 0.49 on the Weekly once we got that long Wick down And a a move you know started to see

That move higher I said look at the Earliest it'll be March before eth Bitcoin bleeds back down at the at the Earliest right likely March and and March even could be pushing that Timeline Still possible it happens in March but It didn't happen in January didn't Happen in February and what's Fascinating is if you look at at 2019 it's almost lining up right I mean You had a low this low was December this Low here was was January it then popped Up over Here put in a High came back down to below the bull Market support band and then got another Rally up and put in a lower High same Thing right a high and then a low we'll See where it ends up if it's a lower High or if it ends up being Different but this move also occurred During the same time right it occurred In mid delay February in 2019 it's Occurring in mid to late February of 2024 so again I know people are going to Say this time is different and we're at A different point in the cycle but the The issue with eth Bitcoin right the issue is that it's Doing what it's always done where it Fades back into these lows bounces Around a little bit but ultimately I Think it will break down right given

Enough time I I do think it will um Break down and and so what I would be Looking for for eth Bitcoin is for it to Slowly fade back down to the range lows Sometime later on in the in the first Half of this year right I I do think it Will likely revisit these lows at the First in the in the first half of the Year so sometime in the next four months I I think we'll see it back below .05 um Just like we saw it do it over here and Just like we saw it do that same thing Right there so that is my guess and I Want to take a few moments to discuss Eth Bitcoin and then talk about how that Might relate to bitcoin USD all right Again Guys these views are not popular I Don't make the dominance videos because They're popular if anything they make me Even more hated and and and it's and It's kind of difficult to deal with it To be completely honest but It hasn't been wrong you know and I I've Seen this with eth Bitcoin forever now Where you know it it keeps on dropping And it keeps on putting in these lower Highs and everyone every single time it Gets a rally everyone you know gets all Up in arms about hey well you know you Were wrong about it but this was just a Massive distribution phase up here that A lot of people didn't want to believe In right and and it's faded all the way Back down to the lows that a lot of

People said it would never go back to You know and I find it frustrating Because there's so many people that that Basically say well it'll never it'll Never go back down to the June low back Over here it does it puts in a lower low They stay Perma on it because that's What they're always going to do it gets A Bounce and then they say they were right No they were calling for the flipping Over here right you can't call for the Flipping back in 2022 and then declare Victory after it takes out the June 2022 Low which they said it was just never Going to take out so you know that's Sort of an issue right that that a lot Of think a lot of people they fall into That trap where it it's playing out the Way it always has if you look at the FIB Retracement on This you can see that eth Bitcoin Actually rallied all the way back up to Between the 786 and the one on the Secondary distribution phase which is Funny because it meant that it going it Went above that first Peak but below the Second Peak but it rallied to somewhere Between the 786 and the one fib Retracement and then eventually it it Came all the way back down to these lows Over Here do you guys remember what it was Like in September 2022 I mean I know a

Lot of people just look at the chart and Say oh well it was obvious was not Obvious to a lot of people I mean Everyone was talking about the flipping Um and and every single step of the Way people were laughing at at the eth You know my views on eth Bitcoin on every single rally but guess What they've all at least so far they've All been Faded and so what happens is is Basically you know they they they turn Their attention to the other spectrum And that's the USD valuation of ethereum Because you know I ultimately think it Will get a fairly large correction after Eth Bitcoin breaks down right so if You're not familiar with what I'm Talking about there's this there's this Idea that after eth Bitcoin drops below Those lows that's where you get a larger Correction by ethusd so if you were to Overlay ethusd onto that Chart and let's switch this to a log Scale right so after eth Bitcoin broke The range low right you can see that eth USD sorry it's it's the wrong percentage Right but you can see that eth USD got About a 50% drop same thing right here Right after eth Bitcoin broke the range Low ethusd topped out out and had a Pretty large correction and so my view Remains the Same that after eth Bitcoin Breaks the range low ethusd will likely

Get a fairly large correction the issue With that view is that you know there's A lot of people say all right well that Means that means there's going to be a Correction every single day that ethusd Goes up it's frustrating for people Because it hasn't seen that move but Again the view is that that major Correction can come after e Bitcoin Breaks down below 0.0049 that hasn't Happened yet right below 049 I think You're going to get a larger correction By ethusd as eth Bitcoin goes back to The .3 to 0.4 range um but it's just Taking a a a very long period of time For that process to play out what's Funny is that even though it is taking a Very long time for it to play out it Actually hasn't taken necessarily any Longer than it took last cycle right if You're not familiar with what I'm Talking about if you were to look at eth Bitcoin monthly candles from the Secondary Peak until we finally broke The range low it took about 17 months From that Peak there to the current Month we're currently at 17 months right It hasn't even taken at this point any Longer it certainly likely will right Like it's probably not there's only a Couple days left in February so yeah More than likely it's not going to be Breaking down this month but even if you Look at this sort of this one over here

It only took um se you know six months The second one took 17 so I don't know How long it's going to take um assuming That it eventually breaks down but I I Do think that so far it's not really That much longer if you measure it from The first Peak it took 25 months for it To break the range lows from that first Peak we're currently at around 26 months So at this point we're still in the Window of how long we might expect it to Ultimately take if you were to look at The 20-month SMA of the eth Bitcoin Valuation you know the 20-month moving Average after it broke durably below it Over here in July 2018 it took two years For it to break back above um and and Note that we had a fake out right There just like we had a fake out right Here and so from breaking below it we're Currently only 13 months in you know I'm Saying it might take two years for eth Bitcoin to durably break above the 20-month moving average the 20-month SMA Is currently at 0065 so just something to think about Right I mean these these these Trends Can take a very long time um to play out And if you think about you know if you Think about how does how does eth Bitcoin actually break down well there's Two different ways right it breaks down On a Bitcoin Rally or Bitcoin could go Sideways or it could break down on a

Bitcoin dump there's all sorts of Different ways that it could break down You know if you're not if you haven't Seen if you haven't seen alts break down Against Bitcoin Bitcoin is not doing Anything or going down just go back and Look at at you know may of 2022 when eth Bitcoin was dropping like a rock and so Too was Bitcoin USD so there are Examples where all Bitcoin pairs drop Even as as Bitcoin USD is dropping and We've seen it in other sectors as well I Mean I did a whole video on this Recently that I'm sure no one watched But if you look at the rivian Tesla Valuation look at this look at where Rivian's Tesla valuation just fell back Into it's the same Principle as all Bitcoin pairs it just fell back into the Range low from Summer of 2023 right just just fell back into the Range Low look at this the low was 00527 this low right here 0525 it's the same thing right I mean The same principle of Bitcoin dominance Can be applied to all these asset Classes like you Know alt EV companies compared to the Blue Chip Tesla right or or the Russell Compared to the NASDAQ or the Russell Compared to the S&P 500 you can take the Same principles and apply it across Asset classes so

This is an example here where alt EV Companies bled against the Blue Chip EV Company even though the Blue Chip EV Company wasn't really moving Tesla Hasn't really moved in a while what Happened well the the earnings for rivan And and and Lucid came out and they were Not that great right they they really Were not that impressive and so the Market sold off now again altcoins don't Have earnings calls right don't have Earnings reports and what would they say If they did hey we only rugged half our Half our users this month but we got a Strong Community going for us and that's Nice and we rely on that oh hey we found Another influencer to shill the altcoins To their following yeah we know they did The same thing last month and they Rugged everyone but hey this time is Different it's the same thing over and Over again right it's the same exact Thing over and over again and these the The alts sort of bleed against the blue Chips and the Blue Chips take back more And more of that market share so there's Examples where you know the the Blue Chips don't have to do anything and all Alts of that in that sector can then Bleed against that blue chip right Here's a great example rivan Tesla Lucid Tesla same thing right I Mean it already broke the range lows From Summer of 2023 and the funny thing

Is is you can find the same thing in in In crypto right look at this look how Look how the Lucid Tesla valuation June 2023 it already broke down below it you Think oh well that's EVS guys the same Thing's going on in crypto some of these Alts have already broken down below Their June 2023 lows look at at a Bitcoin right look at a Bitcoin June 2023 low right there it Already actually Wicked below it right It already Wicked below it so some of These alts have been weaker because They've already broken those range lows Right in the same way that like the Rivan Tesla valuation is back to the Summer 2023 low a Bitcoin is back to the To the summer 2023 low some of them are Not right like adaa Bitcoin has not yet Gone back to the summer 2023 low right It hasn't um but it probably will Eventually and I mean if you look at Like the adaa Bitcoin valuation it's Trying to hold on to its bull market Support band but I don't think it's Going to be able to hold it and if you Look at like the Ada eth valuation you Can see that it already fell below right It already fell below and I was very Clear back over here when Ada eth Capitulated that it would likely get Some type of mean reversion back up to The midpoint of the channel and it did Right it did the problem is now I think

It's right Here where it's bleeding back down to The bottom part of the channel and by The way this was May June of 2019 which Again Occurred just before the FED lowered Rates right I mean it was after the FED Paused and just before the FED lower Rates Ada eth was sort of bleeding back Down to the bottom part of this this Range so I think the same thing is Happening I mean I think a lot of this Liquidity is just flowing back to Bitcoin so you know you have different Examples right one example is where Bitcoin doesn't do anything and alts Bleed against it the other example is Where Bitcoin USD goes up and alts bleed Against it because they just cannot keep Pace with Bitcoin right they just cannot Keep Pace with it and remember Previously the the previous times where Eth Bitcoin broke down if you look at The the prior examples where eth Bitcoin Broke down it was on bitcoin rallies Right it was on bitcoin rallies in these Prior Examples so let's take a look right in This case right here eth Bitcoin broke Down on a Bitcoin rally in this case Right here eth Bitcoin broke down on a Bitcoin rally I don't know how long it's Going to Take but at some point I think it's

Going to break down could be on a Bitcoin rally and I have no idea how High Bitcoin is going to have to go to Ultimately break it down if if you look At at at some of these you know some of The larger Trends here what would it Take for it to break down right well we Could pull up wolf Ram Alpha at current At current eth valuation what would it Take right so like look at ethusd ethusd Is currently at at 3160 let's just say 3200 right let's just say 3200 so at What at what valuation Would It Ultimately take um it's got to go below 049 right below 049 at the current valuation that would Correspond to 65k bitcoin at 3,000 it Would correspond to 61k at 3,300 it would correspond to 67k at 2700 it would correspond to 55k but in all these cases right in all These cases I mean you can see what Would have to happen now if you look Closely at what eth Bitcoin did in the Last cycle it did did not actually Top it sorry Bitcoin U eth Bitcoin did Not break the range low on bitcoin's top Is what I'm trying to say right so if You look at at at 2019 when Bitcoin finally topped that's Not where eth Bitcoin broke the range Low eth Bitcoin broke the range low two

Weeks later so Essentially if you overlay It eth Bitcoin if this is you know this Is the range low right here right it did It a couple weeks later it didn't do it On this first move and the first move it Just got eth Bitcoin back near the range Low but it didn't actually break it down Right and the range low you know is Around let's just say what what is it What would it be like 052 so let's say Eth USD is at 3,300 where would where would Bitcoin USD have to be to get back to to a Valuation of 052 it would have to be at Around 63 to 64k but you could get a a scenario where Then Bitcoin cools off for a week gets Another rally puts in a low lower high And then from that level eth Bitcoin Breaks down on a lower high from Bitcoin USD that's what at least happened um Last cycle right so I still think that That's ultimately what's happening is That you're getting you know you're Getting these these this Bitcoin Rally long enough to break all Bitcoin Pairs down and you know going into this Year I said my base case is that Bitcoin USD stays risk on until we're at 56% Dominance now you might wonder why is 56% dominance important and that goes Back to the whole idea of this FIB Retracement idea that we saw from the

Prior cycle remember if you take the FIB Retracement tool from the peak all the Way Down Bitcoin USD topped out when Dominance crossed the point5 FIB Retracement look at it like This right right there fit um there it Goes change that right so as Bitcoin you As Bitcoin coin dominance cross the 0.5 FIB retracement that is where Bitcoin USD Topped right there right so then you Look at it today and we say well you Know where is where is this where is it Right you know from the um from that top That 0 five FIB retracement is at around 56% so if it plays out like last cycle It means risk on until Bitcoin dominance Reaches 56% so another 3% higher than where we Currently are Again I can't know how high Bitcoin will Go or how how high it has to go in order For Bitcoin to break these altcoins off Of their support levels it's impossible To know like what that price corresponds To and I've said before it's foolish to Try to predict exactly where it's going To top out when when we get into these Mania phases it's best to just get out Of the way and say hey I don't know how High it's going to go but what I think Is that it's going going to go high Enough to break all Bitcoin pairs down

If you look at total 3 minus USD divided By Bitcoin you can see what I'm talking About during this 2019 rally before rate Cuts Arrived all Bitcoin pairs bled back down To the range lows right and so you know If this Wick right here is similar to That Wick right there then I think it's Just a matter of time before all Bitcoin Pairs bleed back down and ultimately Break below that the reason why this is Important is because where all Bitcoin Pairs broke down is precisely where Bitcoin USD topped right again Overlaying Bitcoin USD onto this Chart Bitcoin USD Topped precisely right precisely where All Bitcoin pairs collapsed below the Range low right you see that as as as as These altcoins finally dropped and Bitcoin topped the week of June June 24th right here the reason it's not Showing it it's because it was a wick But that's where it topped that's Exactly where all Bitcoin pairs fell Below their support at that in that Cycle it was at 42% that's where all Bitcoin pairs fell below support Bitcoin USD sucked that liquidity in from the Altcoin market took them collectively Below their Bitcoin support levels Bitcoin rolled over altcoins had nowhere To

Hide so look at it the same thing right The same thing is is likely Happening Here These alts I think will eventually make Their way back down to the June 2023 low Just like the rivian Tesla evaluation Did right a Bitcoin is already back down To the June 2023 low a lot of these Altcoins are already making their way There one altcoin at a time it's just That we a lot of people will just focus On the few that are outperforming and They'll ignore the larger Trend what I Like to do is look at the larger Trend And ignore the few that are the Exceptions to the rule right these Theories are not based on you know the 10 different micro caps that were Created last week right it's based on The larger market cap altcoins that have Been around Forever so I think that this is Ultimately the next outcome is for all Bitcoin pairs to bleed back down to the Range lows and then from there I think They finally go down so when you ask me Like where does Bitcoin USD top out my Response has been for a long time right A long time that it tops out likely when All Bitcoin pairs break off support Right what is Support 40% right we're at 044 if you see a weekly close of total 3 Minus USD Bitcoin below 40 below 04 so

If you see it at 39 that means all Bitcoin pairs have collectively broken Down and you can see on individual Bitcoin charts they're already getting Close to breaking down I mean even going Back to to to mic Bitcoin from before Right like I mean it's it's it's in Dangerous territory right here I don't Know if it's going to break down Immediately or not but you can imagine That if there is a strong enough Bitcoin Move it could break madic off of this Bitcoin support level so that if it's Down here and then Bitcoin gets some Type of Correction well madic Bitcoin Already broke support and therefore it Continues to go Down you could also look at total 2 Minus USD to B coin and take the same Type of approach and say well it's Likely going to break down below this Level that would correspond to about 72 So if you see it at 7 you know maybe Even let's just say 69 because this Wick Right there went all the way down to 7 If you see this at 0 69 it's an Indication that it's starting to break Down and remember last cycle When It Ultimately broke down that's what marked The top for Bitcoin USD I think people are frustrated that I Won't just give them a number but I Don't know like I don't know how high it Has to go to break altcoins down because

One of the issues is that Bitcoin goes Higher it drags the altcoin market with It it's just that Bitcoin has gone up More and that's why the Bitcoin Dominance continues to go up right That's why the Bitcoin dominance is at 53% is because yes the altcoin market is Going up with Bitcoin but Bitcoin is Outperforming the altcoin market so if You want exposure to crypto you could Just stick with Bitcoin because it gives You exposure to the upside while Minimizing your downside Risk so when I think about where do all Bitcoin pairs ultimately have to go I Think they have to break support durably And that means all you know total three Minuts USD Bitcoin breaking below this Level here 04 which will likely happen and if you Look at at Blue Chip dominance right if You look at like Bitcoin plus ethereum Dominance because I know a lot of you Guys are are are eth Maxis um you know And and and again I'm I'm I'm I Am Long-term I I don't think that eth Bitcoin will bleed forever but I do Think it is bleeding but if you if you Look at the Bitcoin dominance plus the Eth dominance where did Bitcoin top out Last cycle it was after they broke Through these range highs so at 73% right that was where ultimately it

Happened and so we're at we're about 72% Now and we've seen this Wick up here to 73% so what if Bitcoin USD just tops out After the Blue Chip dominance is at 73% Now you might say well hold on a second You said Bitcoin could stay risk on Until 56% dominance well how can that be If then this one only needs to go up a Percent well remember you could have a Scenario where the dominance of Bitcoin Goes up from 53 to 56 but the ethereum Dominance is going down during that time So that the Blue Chip dominance still Goes up but it's not going up as much as The Bitcoin dominance is because the Ethereum dominance which is included in The Blue Chip dominance is going down Same thing happened over there right When Bitcoin dominance plus e dominance Broke through in June of 2019 it was Actually during a period where eth Dominance was going Down right eth dominance had this you Know had a bit of a surge over here but Ultimately it broke down as Bitcoin Dominance plus e dominance so blue chip Dominance broke up so there's a lot of There's a lot of different metrics that Say look when all Bitcoin pairs break Down that's where Bitcoin USD likely Puts in a local top right when e Bitcoin Durably goes below 049 that's likely Where Bitcoin USD puts local Top when usdt dominance revisits the

Trend line perhaps that is Where Bitcoin USD puts in a local top Right the this trend line right here You'll remember all these examples right This was November 2021 this was March of 2021 this was just before the pandemic Crashed this was just before this was Right when interest rates started to get Cut in the summer of 2019 that's where We hit that trend line in Bitcoin USD Top same thing over here January 2018 That's where Bitcoin USD or December 2017 that's where Bitcoin USD topped I Put out a long video a few weeks ago About usdt dominance saying it could Likely get rejected here at 6 and a Half% and make its way back down as Bitcoin rallies into the having and Breaks all Bitcoin pairs down and so far That's what's happening I mean it's Breaking it's breaking back down and This trend line you know the usdt Dominance slowly this trend line from Where it is right it slowly is is Climbing up again if you see this at 4% That could be a warning sign just like It was a warning sign over here where There had to be some form of massive Rotation in the cryptoverse where people Go away from the riskier stuff as we go Into a riskof period for a while so I Think that that's another potential Signal for a local top on bitcoin USD But the the issue is that none of these

Have been hit yet right none of them eth Bitcoin still not below 049 all Bitcoin Pairs still haven't broken down USD Dominate still not at 4% the issue is That you know that means yes I think There will come a time in the not so Distant future where Bitcoin USD puts in A significant local top for many many Months but I still want to see those Other things break down first right I Still want to see eth Bitcoin go back Below .49 I want to see all Bitcoin Pairs below 04 I want to see all of that And for the people that say well why Don't we include usdt dominance into This because that's important well if You do that you see a very similar Pattern as well where Bitcoin dominance Did not top until the Bitcoin plus eth Plus USD dominance hit 82% right we know that Bitcoin dominance Topped in September 2019 when the fed Pivoted and the the the the Bitcoin plus Eth plus USD dominance was at 82% right now it's at 76% this move to the higher to the upper Part of the range that hasn't happened Yet right it hasn't happened and So if this metric reaches 82% then I Might be willing to say all right the Dominance rally that could be it but That hasn't happened yet it I mean it Just Hasn't and everyone keeps trying to rush

It and say that all right the dominance Rally they think the dominance rally is Over you give it enough time it just Keeps on going up and you know we can Look for all sorts of technical reasons Why it won't but from a fundamental Perspective people say I don't do Fundamental analysis well it is Fundamental analysis basically saying Look until the FED pivots the altcoins That you know that that were minted last Week where they're just trying to make The founders Rich right they're going to Bleed back to bitcoin because they're Riskier they're riskier and inevitably There's some people in the chat that Will say well what about this altcoin That's outperforming yes congratulations I'm not referring to that altcoin I'm Referring to the collective altcoin Market not the altcoin you bought last Month because it was shilled on Reddit so please be understanding that The Blue Chip dominance even in this Case Bitcoin plus eth plus USD dominance Right what if it's just an Oscillator where during during economic Slowdowns we go up to 82% or during Parabolic rallies by Bitcoin right Either case parabolic rallies by Bitcoin Or parabolic rallies by Bitcoin where You're going into into um shifting from Q QT to QE right 82% is ultimately where It went if not a little bit higher it's

Currently at 76% right now it implies it Could go up right it implies it would go Higher What if it's an oscillator by the way Most altcoins over a long enough period Of time just bleed against Bitcoin this is the alt Bitcoin chart Right these are alt Bitcoin chart and I Don't know what you guys make of this But I mean what do I see I see lower Highs and lower lows that's what I see I Don't know what you see um but Apparently what I see is different than A what a lot of people see when it comes To altcoins Um but all Bitcoin pairs over here Topped out at 1.35 here they topped out at at one or So this low was 0.25 this low right here Was 0.2 over a long enough enough period of Time all Bitcoin pairs Bleed even the people that you know that Are there's some altcoins be point to And say well look at that one like look How you know xrp is a great example Right X RP is one of these one it's kind Of like Litecoin in the sense that it Didn't put in a new high really this Cycle or at least a durable High I mean Like xrp topped out at $2 you know There's a lot of people that have been Bullish on xrp since forever right They've been bullish on it since 2017

We're now seven years later and it still Hasn't taken out the highs seven years Later seven years later those people Could have just stuck with Bitcoin Instead of xrp preserve the soci Valuation of their Portfolio but instead no they they said Bitcoin was bad old Tech no one cared About anymore and that xrp would would Would reclaim all that market Share couldn't put in a new high you Tell me if you look at the xrp Bitcoin Valuation look at It it hasn't gone up to the range highs Since 2018 right since 2018 yeah maybe it'll come back down Here and bounce right that's probably The most likely outcome but that this is The point is that it hasn't done it Hasn't it hasn't gained on bitcoin Durably since 2018 and I can't tell you how many People out there all these xrp people That love to dunk on bitcoin dominance But you want to see a funny chart why Don't we look at xrp dominance look at Xrp Dominance look at what it's done since 2017 if you go to a price label right 32% over there think about how high that Was 32% 18% 133% 6%

4% now it's at 1 and a half per. so you Know all the people that like to dunk on Bitcoin dominance because they say oh Well there's all these new altcoins Coming in they're not accounting for the Stable coin market right what about xrp Dominance what is it doing at least Bitcoin dominance is going up right so Yes you can point to stable coins and Say dominance will never go back to the To 60% if you want which is what a lot Of people Do look at Bitcoin dominance but at Least it's been going up Right it's been going higher you can't Say the same thing about xrp dominance I Mean in July it was at 4% now it's at one and a half% dominance So you see the issue is that no matter What happens people are going to point To a random new altcoin that's going up Against Bitcoin over a short period of Time but then you zoom out and you're Like well it's just been bleeding Against Bitcoin forever the dominance of That altcoin has been going down for a Long Time so how do you preserve the Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio you keep Your portfolio Bitcoin heavy because the Expectation is that over a long enough a Period of time a lot of these altcoins Will just eventually bleed back to Bitcoin sometimes they'll go up against

Bitcoin for one or two cycles but then Eventually they just bleed back to it so If you are speculating in the altcoin Market Be aware that they will likely not go up Against Bitcoin forever eventually they Will likely bleed back to the King again Xrp a coin by the way that I made some Money on back in 2017 and I have nothing Personal against it and there exists a Future scenario where I might think it Could go up again right against Bitcoin Maybe not durably but maybe over a a a Certain period of time but the problem Is that the people that dunk on bitcoin Dominance and that talk about how great Xrp is why don't you ask them to pull up The xrp dominance chart and have them Explain to you why it has just been Going down since 2018 despite all the VC money that came In last cycle despite all of it Dominance of Bitcoin did not take out The low from the last cycle so for Everyone out there that likes to say Your views on bitcoin dominance are are Wrong um the the space is different now Than it ever was back then I would Retort well if that's the case why did Dominance not go lower than it was in 2017 which by the way also now includes A lot of stable coins the stable coin Market cap over here was a lot higher Than it was over here even despite all

The stable coins Bitcoin dominance still Could not put in a lower low so if we're Being honest with ourselves how can you Explain that how can we explain why was Dominance not able to put in a lower low Despite the fact that stable coin market Cap made up like 5 to 10% of the market Cap meaning it would have been a lot Easier for Dominus to put in a lower low Compared to 2018 they couldn't do it they couldn't Do It so it's hard for me to really get on Board with you know with this with the Altcoin narrative stuff about how Dominance views are wrong when dominance Couldn't even put it a lower low it Couldn't and again if you were to Overlay like usdt Dominance onto this Chart look at this usdt dominance over Here was much greater it was like 6% or So it even went all the way up to like 8% in June 2022 going into the merge Rally by eth Bitcoin back over here usdt Dominance was at like 4% so despite the fact that altcoin or Sorry despite the fact that stable coins Made up a large a much larger market cap Of the overall market and and made up a Lot a much larger dominance despite all Of That Bitcoin dominance still did not put In a lower low so my target has been 60%

On bitcoin dominance that's where I Ultimately think it's Going could go higher right it could go Higher but I think 60% is a likely Outcome over a long enough period of Time I think that a lot of people are Just very impatient and and because Dominance has taking a long time to Rally they assume it's not happening but It is happening it's just taking place Over a long period of Time what I'm what I'm you know afraid Might happen is you know how like East Bitcoin rallied up to between the 786 And the one FIB retracement level and And then every step of the way like Literally every single lower high I had To deal with people saying you know oh Just wait it's still going to flip e or E still going to flip Bitcoin still just Kept on bleeding right it still just Kept on bleeding as as more and more People finally threw in the towel and Said all right yep it's going down right And then when it finally got back to the Range lows it it finally got a a a Larger bounce back up to the upside but The problem is that no one believed this Or maybe not no one there are certainly People that did but so many people refus To believe that this was actually Happening so what happens if Bitcoin USD Ends up doing something similar right Where it it gets that retracement um

It's not even that far away from the 786 Now right it's not even that far away But what happens if it gets that Retracement into this Range breaks all Bitcoin pairs down Right in that range breaks alt Bitcoin Pairs down to alt Bitcoin pairs below 04 Eth Bitcoin below 0049 and then as it comes back back down No One Believes right No One Believes That that that could possibly be a local High for a while um but then it just Sort of bleeds back down for a while Because this entire move got front Rand Because all this liquidity was in the Altcoin market and it's made it made its Way over to bitcoin and then you get an Example like this right where then Bitcoin USD after it tops out after e Bitcoin breaks down and after all Bitcoin pairs break down it then gets a Final you know it finally gets that 50% Correction that's so many people would Like to have right this you know finally Got that 50% drop but that 50% drop by Bitcoin guess when it happened After e Bitcoin broke down after all Bitcoin pairs broke down you know this Is a pretty significant level over here At 30k and a lot of people like to Compare it to 2015 and 2016 and say look You know it's it's it's likely going to Retest that level at some point and I Think it probably will to be completely

Honest because a lot of these eventually Retest it right you can see that they They ultimately come back down and Retest it but I mean in the same way Over here right look at look at last Cycle with um with Bitcoin do you see that level there Where it sort of fell back into after That 2019 rally into rate cuts it fell Back down into that level same thing Right look at That you see that that same level right So this level here is like that level Right there and then it had this massive Rally above that level right so it Rallied about 112% above it right here We're about 75% above it right we're not That far away from being 112% above I Don't know if it's going to go that high Or not but even in that case it still After all that it still faded back down To retest that level eventually right my Guess is that it will likely retest that Level and if it's a soft Landing it Might hold that level if it's a hard Landing then it takes that level out and Comes down into here that's possible Right it's it's possible that that could Happen But last cycle right we did not see Bitcoin top out until eth Bitcoin broke Down and we're still waiting like the Jury is still out on how long that's Going to take so for the people that

Keep asking me how high is Bitcoin going To go I don't know I think it needs to Go high enough to break all Bitcoin Pairs down I think it needs to go high Enough to individually break these alt Bitcoin pairs down Ada a Bitcoin likely Needs to go back down to 800 SATs and Likely go below it madic Bitcoin likely Needs to go below 1,700 sets um AAC Bitcoin likely going to go back down a Lot of people say well you know this is A pretty impressive move here by avac Bitcoin you know will it come back down I don't know look at Dash Bitcoin from The last cycle very similar Move look at this look at the uh the Move by Dash Bitcoin from the last cycle You see how there was this low here Before that final rally and then it came Back into that low and had a massive Rally it still eventually just faded Back down right ax Bitcoin is it doing The same thing right massive rally off That low slowly fading back down Dash Bitcoin after it had that massive rally It then came back down to the 20we SMA Got a final bounce back up and then bled Back down avac Bitcoin guess where it is Right now at the 20we SMA right so Inevitably if it bounces sometime in the Next few weeks remember a lot of these Altcoins are the same exact thing I have Nothing wrong with ax I honestly I hope It survives right I hope it does I hope

A a lot of these projects survive it's Just a recognition that this is what Happens in the crypto verse alts bleed To bitcoin whether you like it or not That has been the trend over a long Period of time eth Bitcoin for everyone That tells me it's been putting in Higher lows forever I agree with you I'm On your side in that it has been putting In higher lows forever and that's why I'm potentially interested in it Eventually but it's also been putting in Lower highs since 2017 so how do you Reconcile that you know at what point do We say hey it's been a decade and it Still hasn't taken out the prior high Right 3 years from now right 3 years From now it'll be 2027 if e Bitcoin has Not taken out the 2017 High what do we Say you're talking about 10 years of Your life a decade later you know if You're 20 you're now 30 if you were 30 back then you're now 40 right a decade later and it still Potentially hasn't taken out the High do we just keep pointing to the Higher lows or do we point to the lower Highs my guess is that it's ultimately Converging into whatever the fair value Is I don't think eth Bitcoin in any reasonable time frame is Taking out 0.15 a 3X move from the Current levels I just don't I I don't I I think that that's been pretty clear

For a long time I don't think ethereum Is going to flip Bitcoin on in any Anytime soon probably not ever but I Don't know I don't want to say that I It's hard to know what's going to happen A decade from Now but it I mean it just hasn't you Know it just hasn't and if you look at At at the eth Bitcoin Trend here one of The things you may may notice Um is that and I'm not really sure how To how to sort of draw this out but um You can see That this is kind of you know this was Sort of a level here where it held it Held it here too finally broke down back Tested it and then just back tested it Again a lot of a lot of these coins are Doing that same exact thing on shorter Time frames like look at at at Ada Bitcoin on a daily time frame it did the Same thing right look at This you have a low you have a higher Low you have a higher low higher low Here as well you finally break down Below it you back test it and then you Back test it again there's just so much Liquidity right there's so much Liquidity that's getting absorbed look At it like this you guys remember look At all Bitcoin monthly Candles Right it's the same thing I mean it's It's the same thing right you you have

Your you get your um your first move Down right here right I'm not really Sure why the um the straw thing is not Working let me see if I can get this to Work so you get your initial move down Right there then your secondary move Down and then the third one right this Is your first one right here you get a Little bounce right you get your first Move down and then a bounce bounce and Then down first move down and then to Bounce and then down consolidate in this Range and then eventually it breaks down Right so that's what I ultimately think Is going to happen is that all Bitcoin Pairs will eventually break down when They do that likely marks the Bitcoin USD top for at least a while right Before a larger correction I'm not Saying it has to go back down you know To a lower low but it could certainly Mark a at least a 50% drop from that Level um when they break down I think That that would be sort of a turning Point in the Crypt kind of an Acknowledgement that all right a lot of Liquidity has now bled back to bitcoin Is there still enough liquidity to keep It going higher or or does it you know Does it fade and the issue again is that Last cycle dominance didn't top until The fed pivoted and we're still not at a Fed pivot right so if if it's if there's No pivot in March or the May meeting

I'll still be bullish on bitcoin Dominance if there's a pivot in July Then I might I might pivot right um what If Domino it's just rallies until September which is exactly what it did In 2019 maybe it just rallies until September finally tops out at 60% and Then turns around maybe that's what Happens right I don't know but a lot of Different things to consider when it Comes to you know when it comes to to to Bitcoin dominance and how it you know How it historically has has played out Um so I hope these Bitcoin dominance Views are are useful to you guys uh I Know that they they typically just Elicit a lot of a lot of hate and and Whatnot and I I get it the reason I get It is because I was that person in Prior Cycles like I was that person that Thought there's no way this altcoin will Ever go down against Bitcoin I was that Person so I get it right I get why that Emotion exists I was that person now I'm Trying to say hey Guys alts have been bleeding against Bitcoin for years and people don't want To believe it and what am I to do right What am I to Do they cherry-pick some of the altcoins That outperform Bitcoin to say you're Wrong I always said there was going to Be some I always said there's going to Be some that do it but the general trend

Is down and and that's the issue is that You know there there hasn't really been A durable change in the all Bitcoin Pairs at this Point so just something to think about As it as it as it relates to to to Bitcoin the other thing is is gold if Look at at last cycle that is ultimately What marked the riskof time as well um You know you can see these range highs Right here gold broke through that in in June of you know June July of 2019 That's what marked the Bitcoin local top So I've said before if you see gold Trading above 270 durably that could be A risk-off signal when you see eth Bitcoin durably below 049 that's a Riskof signal or all Bitcoin pairs below 04 that's a riskof signal hasn't Happened yet Bitcoin keeps climbing the wall of worry The other thing to consider too is if You look at the fear and greed index um Into 2019 what happened was there was These higher highs and then finally it Rallied all the way up to a fear and Greed level of 95 and then that marked The final high for that year um and so You know right now it's it's still in in The 70s but we did get pretty close when We got to 79 um And 78 just a few days ago so if you see The fear and green index in the 90s like

Imagine this imagine sometime the next Few months the fear and greed index hits 95 or um or the 80s and you're looking At eth Bitcoin and it's below 049 you're Looking at all Bitcoin pairs below 0.4 You're looking at Gold above 270 you're Like well hell this is the same thing as Last cycle that might be something to Consider so I'm trying to think if There's anything else I did not cover we Got Bitcoin do maybe maybe just a brief Moment on this this is Bitcoin dominance Excluding Stables an approximation of it in Trading view right so if you don't have Access to ITC Premium which has it you don't need it Right you don't need access to it to Have excluding stable coins right go Over to trading view here's the formula For it right here's the Formula this is the formula right Here I mean you can see it right here It's on the screen right um by the way You have to type in like crypto cap for Some of these right so if you like if You just type in I I don't know if it's Still true but if you just type in usgc Like it comes up with some you know this Right you don't want that right so when You're typing in something you have to Do like crypto cap usdc and that will Get you the market cap of it but if you Just type in like usdc you get get this

And who the hell knows what that is so The issue is if you're doing usdt Dominance um or if you're doing like Usdt market cap plus usdc market cap Like that you'll get a chart that looks Like this the problem is that I don't Know if that USD let's just check let me Just check on the fly so that's 97.9 s Now come in here and let's put in um Crypto cap sorry I must have misspelled It um r Yeah there you have it 126 so a lot of People make that mistake of just doing Like USD plus usdc plus die but the Issue is that some of these some of These um tickers like usdc if you don't Specify it's in the crypto space it'll It'll give you it'll return something Different I can't tell you how many People I've seen do that and I'm just Kind of like yelling at my screen being Like you're not actually measuring usdt Market cap or usdc market cap you have To to put in crypto cap usdc to actually See that so be careful when you do that That if you if you're not careful you Will be looking at at something Different than what you think you're Looking at um so something important to Remember the other thing I'm glad I did Not in the video because I really wanted To make sure I went over this the social Risk if you go look at like YouTube Views and stuff you know there there

Have been some upticks here and there But there's no clear indication that Retail is back and until retail comes Back dominance goes higher right if You're not familiar with what I'm Talking about go look at here's the Social Risk Right social risk kind of doing what it Did in 2019 in fact right I mean like It's not that different I mean it really Does look really similar how social risk Went up um and then it it just sort of Came back down and I I think it's po Possibly doing something similar um and Even you might say well Bitcoin USD is Going higher yeah I mean even after Social risk topped over here Bitcoin was Only at like 7 7,000 it's still went up Another you know 80% or something from There before it topped out and you can See here Bitcoin or social risk at least Found this local high back at 42k and Now Bitcoin USD is at like 54k right so Yeah I mean it's doing it's still doing What it did last cycle the problem is That you know a lot of people I think Assume that you know that there's a lot Of retail just waiting to come back and I'm not saying that retail won't come Back I think they eventually will but I Think we need to get to a Fed pivot First we need looser monetary policy Before retail is going to come back um

And and take the dominance of Bitcoin Down the the people that are coming back Now and buying I mean there's yes There's institutions and yes there's Some new people but if retail were Coming back in Mass dominance would be Going down but it's not right it's not And here here's the dominance excluding Stable coins right I mean you can kind Of see that it's been putting in these Higher lows it has had some Wicks down Right but it's still technically putting In higher lows here right you could Argue that this is still on the general Trend of of higher lows for a long Period of Time so the social risk right the social Risk is um is still pretty low and I Think in order to see the dominance go Down you see the social risk go up so if You look at it like this right so if we Go look at the workbench let's pull up Bitcoin dominance I don't really care About without yeah let's do without Stable coins and we're gonna add on the Um the social risk Here so do you see where dominance Cratered it was when social risk went Crazy social risk hasn't done that yet And a lot of times it doesn't do it Until well after bitcoin's making new Highs and also after a Fed pivot so as Long as social risk is down in the dumps Down here Bitcoin dominance generally

Trends High higher right um and so over Here after the after the social risk Finally bottomed um it still stayed Relatively subdued for a long time and It only recently bottomed in like September October of 2023 so just something to keep in mind As social risk stays low Bitcoin Dominance goes up and the reason is Because you know there's only one main King there's only one king in the crypto Versus Bitcoin so majority of people are Going to at least know what Bitcoin is They going to have some in their Portfolio there's 10 th there's tens of Thousands of different altcoin so it's Hard to keep those bids sustained Against Bitcoin if everyone's getting Pulled to different newer and newer Altcoins every single week um and also I I I think there is a risk too with the With the with the idea that the social Risk will go back up to save your Altcoins and the main risk there is that Well if the FED does stay too high for Too long and they lead us into a Recession then you might not see the Social risk go back up in the short term Right it could still take a year or two Before you know before you see the Social risk go up in a material fashion And if that's the case it means that the Bitcoin dominance doesn't go down in a Material fashion right if if if

Something like that were to happen and Again I know that it's it's sort of this Like oh don't talk about that stuff Because because you know we've we've Heard it before but again you know when It comes to the macroverse and whatnot The thing that I've said forever is that It's upon the Unversioned spread that it becomes an Issue where the economy might might be Slowing down we haven't had that yet and Again it's one of those things where I Don't know how long it's going to take But it's normally upon Theinverseside of we haven't seen e Bitcoin break down we haven't seen all Bitcoin pairs break down we haven't seen The unversioned the yield curve we Haven't seen Blue Chip dominance break Above 73% we haven't seen gold break Above 2070 if all those things happen That's your riskof signal until then We've climbed the wall of worry so those Are my views and I think that you know This inverted yield curve stuff and and You know the economy that's sort of the Biggest risk to the idea that that Retail is coming anytime soon to save Your altcoins on their Bitcoin Pairs and There's still a risk that the dominance Of Bitcoin just keeps on going higher Because we are further away from a Fed Pivot than a lot of people think we are And if the dominance keeps on going up

Then I mean all Bitcoin pairs continue To bleep right that's just the most Likely outcome so again I know it's not A popular view I know that if I made a Single video talking about you know Altcoins in a bullish light against Bitcoin I would get a lot more likes I Would get a lot more views because I see The people that do it I see the people That are bearish on dominance they have Been for two years I see those people They get a lot more views and likes than I Do but they're wrong right they've been Wrong for two years and their viewers Don't want to believe it the reason they Don't want to believe it is because they Want their altcoins to go up so they can Dump those altcoins on these theoretical Retail participants that are going to Eventually come the biggest risk to That is that retail doesn't come back in The next few months maybe retail doesn't Come back until 20 25 right or even Later I don't know but at this point Retail has not yet returned in any and You can see it I mean like look at look At like you know followers to various Twitter Twitter and analysts right I Mean like like we're nowhere near what We saw in 2021 right nowhere near it Nowhere close look at exchanges Twitter Followers to Exchanges we've seen a little bit of

Uptick Recently no near what we saw in 2021 how Do you get back to that right how do you Get back to that look at 2019 right look At 2019 we had some rallies in here uh By Bitcoin USD that also led to new Followers to exchanges but eventually it Just faded back down because we still Had not gotten on the other side of a Fed pivot so I think the issue is that You know a lot of people think that the Dominance is about to Crater because the Fed's about to Pivot but inflation is Still Skyhigh I mean again you know the Fed can't really pivot if headline I Mean I know they don't really look at Headline as much as they do as say you Know core pce but headline inflation is Still holding strong at 3% core Inflation is still not durably Necessarily going back to their 2% Target I mean it's kind of stalled out Here at around that 4% threshold so Until that actually happens the FED Can't really pivot and If the Fed can't Pivot it means QT is here longer it Means higher rates are here for longer Higher for longer as they have said I Said two years ago that the FED would Likely the terminal rate would likely be 5 a half% no one believed it right they Said No 3 and a half% no going higher Than that and here we are at 5 and a Half% and the dominance well above that

Level they said would never be broken 49% we're now at 53% dominance so Inflation still high fed can't pivot Dominance likely going up the main issue For for retail participants is that the FED stays too high for too long and they Cause the economy to slow down to the Point where people don't really come Back to those altcoins um in Mass until Later than people think they will and I Think that's why people keep front Running the Bitcoin dominance Theoretical dump because they think Dominance is going to dump and then it Just keeps on going higher because these These nebulous retail Market Participants just aren't coming back Right Bitcoin USD keeps going Higher and we talked a lot about how Bitcoin USD does this exact same thing Right like we just the last several Videos right up consolidate go higher Right up consolidate go Higher up consolidate go up same thing Up consolidate go up it's the same Trend By the time you get a larger pullback 30% or so once we finally get a larger Pullback it's not just a 20% draw draw Down once you finally get a 50 or sorry Like a 30% drop it might imply that the Actual 50% drop is coming and then maybe We go all the way back down to um you Know to 30k or so but at this point I Mean that could certainly happen you

Know after the having I've said many Times that what what it seems like is Happening is we're just chasing Narratives it was the merge rally it was The spot ETF rally now it's the having Rally right now it's the Bitcoin having Rally and and as we get closer to the Having as I've said many many times that Liquidity should flow back into Bitcoin The Bitcoin dominance should go up and If all Bitcoin pairs break off of their Support levels that is where Bitcoin USD Might find a local top also another risk Is a long the yeld curve is starting to Look like it's look my view on the long Of the yield curve is that back over Here I said that at the very least will Likely retest a 20we ese at 4.3% now We're there if inflation still comes in Hot the next few months then you could See the long of the old curve go back up And if the long of the yield curve goes Back up you might get another correction In the S&P um you know this correction Right here in the S&P was as the long of The curve went up if you look at the uh Us 10e overlay it with stocks right as long As the tenure went up stocks finally Dropped initially while the tenure went Up stocks went up with it but as the Tenure continued to break as it broke Out that's where stocks finally got a a Larger pullback so if the tenure does

Rally back up um that could be Detrimental for stocks but I mean maybe It has to make a new high for it to be Detrimental I don't really know if the Tenure is going to go so my view on the 10 year back if you're not familiar with My Views that i' I've expressed many Many times on anytime we we get you know Fomc stuff my view news on the 10 year Over here was that that was a potential Um a potential top at around 5% and and Then I said you know a lot of times when The 10e tops it then can revisit that Level or put in a slightly lower High um So I I think we all need to be aware That it could go back up to the Range High at at at 5% worst case scenario in This business cycle you might see it go To the where the short end is today and The short end today is at 5 a half% now Imagine what that would do to the Economy if the long end of the Y care Went to 5 half perc um that would be a a A bare steepener right if the long the York curve would instead of a bull Steepener it' be a bare steepener I Don't know if we're going to get that Again um but it is possible right it is Possible if inflation stays too sticky For too long then eventually the the you Know the yields are going to have to go Up if if if they just sort of throw Their hands up and say well the economy Is too hot you know the FED can't pivot

So that is something that I I I think we Have to be aware of too and then the Last thing thing is it's the dollar you Know the dollar the last time the dollar Made this strong move right here Bitcoin Dominance went up like 10 weeks in a row Right it followed Su the Dollar's pulled Back a little bit here but I've said Before that the dollar looks like it's Following Bitcoin dominance right if you Look at um at least just delayed by like A year or something if you look at at at Bitcoin dominance overlay onto this Chart it did a very similar thing right It's just that you had a low a lower low And a lower low a high a lower high then A higher high right same thing dollar Low lower low lower low high lower high Higher high and then the the Bitcoin Dominance then came back in here to put In a higher low and then another higher Low after getting rejected by the 20we SMA the dollar a higher low potential Rejection by the 20we SM I'd be looking For some form of a higher low you know Somewhere between 101 to 10 you know to Where the current levels are right Somewhere in that level I think dollar Will will get a bounce and then it'll Start to come back up here and the Reason why I think the dollar will will Get a bounce from those levels is Because I think that other central banks Around the world are going to Pivot more

Aggressively than the FED because they Have weaker economies than the United States if you think about it in the same Way that that that that Bitcoin is the Blue Chip of the cryptoverse in the same Way that Tesla is the Blue Chip of the EV stocks in the same way that the Magnificent Seven are the Blue Chip of Of you know the main the main indices Right the NASDAQ the s&p500 the US Economy is the Blue Chip of of all these World economies right it is the one that That that is King right it's the one That has the highest GDP it's the one That stays stronger for longer it is the One which if it shows weakness then the FED will pivot and the issue is that These other economies are already Rolling into a recession right I mean Some of them are already printing two Quarters of negative GDP and and those Central banks are going to likely have To Pivot before the United State before The FED will pivot and because of that I Think the dollar is bound to go back up I think the biggest question is the next Few weeks how low does it go before it Gets that bid but once that bid comes I Think it will be pretty aggressive into The the middle to in part of this year And then finally the FED will be forced To Pivot um because they will have Stayed too high for too long and If the Fed is going higher for longer or if

They're staying higher for longer then It means the Bitcoin dominance is Staying higher for longer right and the Bitcoin Dominance major Milestones break 55% if it gets to that 56% level I'll be on high alert on on The Bitcoin USD chart all Bitcoin pairs Below 0 4 be on high alert e Bitcoin Below 049 be on high alert gold above 270 high alert Etc we've gone on a long time I got to Wrap it up let's see if the dominance Can make this rally let's see if it can Get to 56% if if we get to 56% here in The next couple of months then we'll Have to do another video like this and And check in and see where we are if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and again check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom links in the Description below and I'll see you guys Next time bye