Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin more specifically we're Going to be discussing the Bitcoin Dominance if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on intothe Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom before we go too much Further into this one of the most common Questions I get is why talk about Dominance so much and as I've said said Before and I I know this might induce Some ey rolles but I I really do think That the dominance of Bitcoin is the key To unlocking the secrets of the Cryptoverse and if you use the Bitcoin Dominance to understand you know sort of What stage of the cycle we are in I Think it will help improve your sharp Ratio right your risk adjusted returns And the reason I say that is because if You you know if you come to a point Where you think that dominance of Bitcoin is going to go up Drastically then it's often a good idea Not Financial advice but just based on History it's often a good idea to Consolidate you know your portfolio into Bitcoin right and that often happens During quantitative tightening periods And really high interest rates right so

The further you are in the business Cycle late business cycle that's when Typically Bitcoin do can go on a major Bull Run and by Consolidating a crypto portfolio into Mostly just Bitcoin before this Bitcoin Dominance run occurs then it helps to Preserve the Satoshi value of your Portfolio I can't tell you how many Prior Cycles where I I simply you know Went kneed deep into so many altcoins Dcing down all the way from the peak Getting excited anytime they had a pump And then looking back on it in in terms Of valuing my portfolio in Bitcoin and Just seeing that my my Satoshi valuation On my portfolio was just being Constantly devalued month after month After month after month and so this has Happened previously it happened um and I Decided this cycle I was going to focus On a Bitcoin heavy portfolio throughout Quantitative tiing and high interest Rates and then to Pivot that after on The other side of of monetary policy Right when we go to looser monetary Policy sometime thereafter it would Become more prudent to in my opinion to Be a bit more Diversified now I will say That like always whenever I talk about This there are a lot of people that push Back on this idea and what they say and It's it's valid criticism and I've

Addressed it many times what they say is That well you know had you bought this Altcoin at the bottom you would be up You know a certain amount right and that Is outperformed Bitcoin and that may be True right that may be true but Unfortunately for me I cannot time the Bottom on altcoins I can't I don't Pretend to uh second of all a lot of People that do that strategy while they May be up on their altcoin buys recently You know there's probably a series of Buys all the way down in 2022 that are still underwater right so You know had you just stuck with Bitcoin You you would have been a lot better off Under most circumstances with that said There are some altcoins that have Outperformed Bitcoin and I I've Experienced that myself I mean last Cycle I was I was very much into talking About those specific altcoins that were Outperforming Bitcoin this cycle I've Just decided to you know not deal with That as much and to just focus on the General market trend of a Bitcoin Dominance higher but as you've seen even In a Bitcoin dominance rally there are Some altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin and there always are they Typically are newer altcoins that don't Have the baggage from prior Cycles but Occasionally there will be some altcoins From the prior cycle that outperform

Bitcoin and it could be for all sorts of Reasons um but we've seen that many many Times as well so again when we talk About a Bitcoin dominance rally while I Know a lot of people you know criticize Me for talking so much about it the Whole idea is to is to manage your risk And to say you know what Bitcoin is the King of is the king of the asset class And if the dominance of Bitcoin is going To go up then I'm just going to stick With that right and so for full you know For full disclosure What I did was I converted you know Essentially most all of my ALT coins to Bitcoin back at the beginning of 2022 And I also converted my eth to Bitcoin In you know in in in May of 2022 just Before just before it dropped and then It went right back up but it was around 0075 so I think one of the reasons why It's important to share that is because As humans I think we're biased right so Like if I if my portfolio is is Bitcoin Heavy then I'm going to look for reasons Why Bitcoin dominance should go up and Sometimes right sometimes that's worked Out really well so far but at some point That Trend will likely change and and We're going to talk a lot about that in This video because I I do think we can See the end in sight for the but it's Still a little ways off right I still Think the Bitcoin dominance Rel will

Continue for at least a little bit Longer but we'll talk about you know What to look for in terms of in terms of Where it could actually finalize so with With Bitcoin dominance and of course Talk about Bitcoin USD it's impossible To really talk about Bitcoin dominance Without talking about Bitcoin USD the Whole idea behind the dominance rally is That and this is what I've said in every Single video basically on bitcoin Dominance is no matter the direction of Bitcoin whether it goes up or down the Bitcoin dominance should go up and we Can look at the chart and say that's Pretty clearly happened I mean you can See that at least including stable coins The Bitcoin dominance rally started in September of 2022 and we know that Bitcoin went down um you know we had the FTX collapse and then it entered into an Uptrend back in you know I mean really I Mean the from the low in November but Really Bitcoin really started moving in In January and you can see that Throughout the entire time the Bitcoin Dominance has been going higher now Throughout the entire dominance rally There have been people that have come Out at every single local top to say That that is the top right every single One um and you know you give it enough Time and it it just continues to climb Okay and it can be hard because I know

What a lot of people want to do is they They want to just go YOLO into the Altcoin market and and hope that they Can gain on bitcoin right because they They because altcoins as they say can Give oversiz returns and altcoins can Give oversized returns against Bitcoin Collectively not just a few they can but Normally that phase occurs during looser Monetary policy and quantitative easing Where the FED is increasing the size of Their balance sheet so there's two Distinct phases of the cycle for Bitcoin And you have you have Bitcoin TR uptrend You have Bitcoin uptrends where where Bitcoin dominance is going up you also Have Bitcoin uptrends where Bitcoin Dominance is going down and we'll talk a Little bit about that as well but this Has been a trend that we have seen by Bitcoin dominance since September of 20122 however I personally have been Bullish on dominance since Of 2021 that was when I sort of loosely Started to think all right maybe it Won't go too much lower and then I Really became bullish on it here in you Know in in Q4 of 2021 because that is I Mean we we had sort of had our chance to See Bitcoin dominance go lower it Couldn't really accomplish it and Therefore I felt like it was turn it was Time to turn the ship around with the Dominance and and for it to go back up

But you might point out that dominance Still continue to go lower just slightly Until September of 2022 a main Counterpoint to that as I've mentioned But I I will reiterate it here a main Counterpoint is that if you calculate Out the dominance excluding stable coins Right so if you exclude Stables um what You'll see is that dominance has Actually been in an uptrend IT the low Was in May 20121 that was actually when The low occurred so while when you Include the stable coin Market the low For dominance to not occur until September of 2022 when you exclude Stable coins which I think is relevant To do I think it's a reasonable thing to Do considering that I'm using the Dominance to understand all Bitcoin Valuations not really using it to Understand what the market cap of the Stable coins Are so I I think it's relevant to look At it like that and to say look the Dominance bottomed in May of 2021 and if If the high for dominance is not in Which I I still think dominance could to Go higher if it's not in then that means That the bull run in dominance has been Going for for almost three years this May this coming May will in fact be Three years and there is a case to be Made and I'm not going to stand by this Because it it really is

Dependent on monetary policy and I don't Know if you guys are aware but monetary Policy and expectations for monetary Policy continue to change and and you Know I I feel like we have to be willing To Pivot no pun intended right to Pivot When the you know when Bitcoin dominance Is no longer bullish based on how Monetary policy changes this year and The reason I say that is because last Cycle and again you know it's not like We have a ton of data points but so far It is worked out to be bullish on the Dominance right so far it's worked out Um whether this just ends up being a Lower high or not remains to be seen I Think there's case to be made that it'll Be a higher high we'll talk about that Too but you know we've come so far and So we have to think about what would Actually turn the Bitcoin dominance Train around like what would actually Make it stop and make it so that the Altcoins start to outperform there's Really great metric uh it's called the Altcoin season index and what you'll see Is there's a few times in history when It when altcoin season index really Stays elevated in altcoin season So the red shaded box if this orange Line is in the red shaded box then it Implies some form of alt season if we're In the green box then it implies some Form of Bitcoin season now alt season

Does not always mean that altcoins are Going up the way that this is defined Sometimes you could be in say in quote Unquote alt season like we were here When Bitcoin was going down it was just That Bitcoin was going down more than The altcoins therefore it appeared like We were in alt season on this chart but Really it was just Bitcoin was Underperforming most everything else During that period but what you'll Notice is that there's a few times where We briefly go into alt season making People think that alt season is about to Occur and then we get rejected from it Immediately right you can see it happen Many many times we briefly go into that Alt season window and then it just gets Taken right back away as Bitcoin takes The Reigns once again but there are Times where you stay in alt season for a Long period of time 2021 was a good Example um you know 2017 was a good Example late 2017 early 2018 was another Good Example this here right how many people Came out the last couple of weeks saying It's time for altcoins to take over and Here we are the alt season index you can See it was rejected almost immediately And why is that because liquidity is Flowing back to Bitcoin now we've talked About why liquidity would flow back to Bitcoin it's because of several reasons

Right first of all there's no reason to Change the bias until in my opinion Until we're on the other side of Monetary policy on the other side of a Pivot last cycle and again I I get it's Only one data point I'm not asking you To take it to the bank it's worked out So far to use this dat Point as a guide Doesn't mean that it's going to continue To work out forever but just for Reference right interest Rates two things right two two separate Things interest rates last Cycle when they started to be Lowered that marked the top for Bitcoin Dominance in the QT phase of the Business cycle there was another Top by Dominance that occurred later on but That was in the QE phase of the business Cycle and we'll talk I'll try to Distinguish these two as well the QT Phase of the business cycle Bitcoin was Going up in 2019 and it went up until One month before the First Rate cut one Month and you can see that dominance Topped out here in September of 2019 Which was about 2 months After the First Rate cut So the reason I point this out is Because this was a guide last cycle into When it made sense from a risk adjusted Returns perspective to think all right Maybe Bitcoin dominance will no longer Go up when we get to looser monetary

Policy and that's exactly what happened Right dominance topped out a couple of Months after the First Rate cut but There might be a better way to view this And this is by looking at total assets Of the Federal Reserve and in this case If you extend the line down you can see That perhaps it wasn't the lower Interest rates that was what we needed To watch to time the time a a top on Bitcoin dominance but in fact it was When the FED started to expand their Balance sheet you can see pretty clearly The FED started to expand their balance Sheet sheet in September 2019 which is Precisely where Bitcoin dominance Topped precisely where it Topped why did the FED expand their Balance sheet here it's because the the Economy was starting to show signs of Weakness right it was starting to show Signs of weakness and and this was their Way of being more acconting to the Economy and because because there was More liquidity because we increasing Liquidity riskier assets started to Outperform and the reason is because When you go back to lower rates and you Get increased liquidity all of those Fringe companies if you think about like The S&P 500 those companies finally got That sweet drug QB right quantitative Easing they finally got that sweet drug And the people that were we you know

Really weary of going into those Companies because they didn't know if They were going to survive the rate Hiking cycle they could say all right The rate hiking cycle is over we're Going back to loer monetary policy it's Time to invest in those companies that Have still survived and have not gone Bankrupt now some people will choose to Buy those companies before we get to Lose monetary policy and it can Sometimes work out really really great Because you're buying it before you know You get to a lot of those more known Variables and when they're actually Going to occur but the downside is what Happens if you pick a company that goes Bankrupt right I mean you don't we don't Know how long the rate cycle hike the Rate hiking cycle will last and we also Don't know that even when they go back To looser rates we don't know if it's Going to be sufficiently loose to Actually have a meaningful impact on Demand you can take that same analogy And apply to crypto say well I mean you Know what altcoin is going to Survive yes there's going to be a lot That survive there's going to be a lot That don't Bitcoin will probably survive Right I mean that's what we you know That's what I feel like I can count on Is that from one cycle to another Bitcoin will likely survive I can't

Really say the same definitively about Any other cryptocurrency I could Probably say the same about you know Ethereum but it's just the case is not As strong for other Cryptocurrencies so when you're in a Rate hiking cycle late cycle if it's Early cycle and and the fed's not so Aggressive then altcoins can still do Okay but if it's an aggressive rate Hiking cycle and it's late late late Business Cycle With the a Fed reducing the size of Their balance Sheet then it makes sense in my opinion To be Bitcoin heavy now if you're just Now watching this video for the first Time you're like oh maybe I should go Convert my ALT to bitcoin guys this has Been a strategy you know that I've been Talking about for well over two years Now right it's pretty late at this point To then like jump into the band you know Jump on the bandwagon and say all right Yeah let's let's take this Bitcoin Dominance party even higher I do think Dominance will go up but again it's Pretty late at this point um If if you haven't you know if you didn't Get on the Bitcoin dominance sort of Bandwagon a while back then at this Point it might just be a better learning Experience um over anything else because

First of all there's no guarantee that I'm right about it continuing to go Higher there's no guarantee as much as I'd like to think it will I could be Wrong and second of all even if it does Go higher there's no guarantee that the Altcoin that you might convert to Bitcoin is actually one that is one of The main ones that bleeds right it could Be one of the few that outperform and Therefore you could feel um upset about That if you know you sold your one Altcoin that then outperformed Bitcoin So I I do want to just reiterate that You know that that caveat of it but the Reason why we we should talk about you Know the balance sheet of the fed and Lower rates is because we're likely Going to see those two things sometime Soon um it's hard I mean and by student I mean sometime in 2024 like I I don't Know when it's going to be right now the First Rate cut is is not predicted by The markets to occur until May May 1st Really I mean so it's really beginning Of May and in the last speech by a pal At the fomc he said that at the March Meeting they're going to start talking About balance sheet issues right so it's On their radar and what's interesting is If you look at how much they reduced the Balance sheet in the 2019 cycle If you look to see how much they reduce The balance sheet over here it was about

Actually I need to pull it up on a Um so if we look at how much they Reduced the balance sheet back in in This QT phase it was about 16% and right Now they're at about 15% so you know maybe they only take it Down to about 16% to approximately 7 and 1 12 Tron I don't know plus or minus a Few hundred billion what's a few hundred Billion among friends right I don't know Exactly where it's going to stop but the Point is that they're they're not going To do it forever right like they're Likely not going to get it anywhere Close to where it was back over here Especially if in the last fomc Pal's Already bringing up they're going to Start talking about it right So what if again just what If like last Cycle where they start stop reducing the Size of their balance sheet what if that Marks the top for Bitcoin dominance what If right and he said they're going to Start talking about it at the March Meeting maybe they don't maybe they Don't stop it at the March meeting maybe They do it at the May meeting or the June meeting I don't know but he has Alluded to the idea that there could be A case to be made at some point they Could cut rates but not red still not Increase the pay the the size of balance Sheet I don't know if that's going to

Happen if that happens that could throw A wrench into exactly where the Dominance would actually top out but if It happens like last cycle where lower Rates also correspond to the time the Fed's increasing the size of your Balance sheet then I would very much say Like that would be a candidate for a Bitcoin dominance Top and again like you know I've been All accused of all sorts of things like Being a Bitcoin Maxi all this other Stuff just because I've been bullish on The Bitcoin dominance but you know who Can look who who can look at at the Bitcoin dominance chart and say that it It it has been anything but an uptrend I Mean it you know it's been an uptrend For a long time if you look at monthly High kinashi Candles it literally has not had a red Candle since November of 2022 I mean it Actually has been more bullish than Bitcoin USD in that regard because Bitcoin USD did have two months of of Red candles Bitcoin dominance has just Been green the entire time and it came Close to going red when you look at the High Andi candles but it still didn't Bitcoin dominance has been extremely Bullish for a long time obviously Bitcoin has also been going up in line With the idea though that Bitcoin Dominance will go up no matter the

Direction of Bitcoin USD right no matter The direction implies that it could go Up for Bitcoin to go up and in fact when Bitcoin goes up that is the the main way That Bitcoin breaks all Bitcoin pairs Down I think that that's ultimately the End game game here I think that's what Has to happen Because if you Look at at eth Bitcoin right you know if You go look at eth Bitcoin it's been a pretty clear Trend a Pretty clear Trend in the past we've Seen two examples of it and my guess is This time will not be different that's My guess where you Have a low That's put in you have a low that's put In first you get your first Peak and Then your second Peak same thing here First Second first and Second between these two peaks you you Form some type of a Low some form of a low and then a low Here and then from that low you bounce Around right you bounce around for a While you go put in your second top you Come back down and then you retest that Low right you retest that low just like We did here and here we got pretty close And just like we did right here but Eventually Bitcoin continues to to to Basically you know it gets these rallies

And then Fades back down it gets another Rally it fades back down and it it chops The altcoin market up and then Eventually eth Bitcoin finally throws in the towel and It falls below that you know the sort of That intermediate Low and you can see in fact that in this Cycle e Bitcoin fell after it broke down It fell about 50% this cycle here when It when eth Bitcoin broke it fell about 30% right so I don't know how far it's Going to fall I've suggested the 003 to 04 range as a as a potential Target but Let's say it fell 10% that would put it At 0045 if it fell 20 20% from that level It put it at 004 a 25% drop would put it At 0375 30% drop would put it at 0.0035 so I mean you can See the the the trend and in every Single case here right in every case if You were to Overlay Bitcoin onto the Chart it was in fact a Bitcoin Rally in this case Here in this case here and potentially In this case here where ether where eth Bitcoin actually broke down right it was It was right here right it was a Bitcoin Rally that broke e e Bitcoin down here a Bitcoin rally that broke e Bitcoin down My guess is that you could get a a rally That breaks eth Bitcoin off of support

And I think that's what ultimately needs To happen one of the things I think About crypto is it really does give us Insight into the liquidity sloshing Around and perhaps we could think about This in terms of where where all Bitcoin Pairs break down that sort of Effectively you know the consumer Throwing in the towel and and sort of Giving up and and wondering why their Altcoins cannot go up against Bitcoin And why Bitcoin which many people when They join crypto they join it at tops Where they don't really see Bitcoin do Anything all they see are altcoins do Well it's exactly the same thing as last Cycle I mean if you think back to last Cycle you know everyone joined up here In 20177 and then in 2019 when Bitcoin Went on this rally and the dominance Went from like you know 40% all the way Up to well from 40% over here all the Way up to over 70% no one could really Believe it you know no one could really Believe that the dominance went all the Way back to 70% because when they joined crypto at The peak all they ever saw Bitcoin do Was go down and all they saw initially Was altcoins go up before they collapse And so they just keep throwing money at These altcoins hoping that they'll give Them a return on their Satoshi value and They just never do at least not in any

Durable fashion again if you can time The bottom then I I I tip my hat to you I I can't do that I can't time you know Altcoin bottoms and especially not on Their on their USD valuations Um and that's what happened right I mean Bitcoin went on this crazy rally Dominance went up a ton and and people Threw in the towel and were like well Hell like you know what's it going to Take what did it take it took looser Monetary policy to see the Bitcoin Dominance finally top Out and again it was a Bitcoin rally That broke e Bitcoin down in in these in These prior examples it was a Bitcoin Rally and if you look at eth Bitcoin I Mean it's at 053 you know I I did a video on on E Bitcoin uh about a month or so ago and One of the things I mentioned was that If if we don't get a weekly close below 049 the further we get into January There's a chance that eth Bitcoin gets a Bounce and the reason we say that is Because that a lot of times eth Bitcoin Can get some form of a bounce in January It actually happens quite a lot if You're familiar with sort of seasonality With ethereum it doesn't happen every Every single year but a lot of times There will be some form of a bounce and Also historically when you do get back Down to the range lows after that you

Know after getting that bounce you will Get another bounce right you had this Cycle over here you had one big bounce Up and then down cycle here you had a Bounce there and then you got another Bounce and then it eventually faded so We had this bounce and I mean it wasn't Impossible to see it potentially coming If we couldn't get a weekly close below 049 but the problem is that you know When when eth gets this bounces against Bitcoin it's like the the elevator up And the stairs down so it's sort it's Sort of just draining on a lot of people Because I think a lot of people you know Well I mean look I people either share The view or they think they think the View is wrong wrong or they just don't Care I feel like a lot of people fall They just don't care category but the Point is is if you agree with with the You know with the idea of eth eventually Breaking down against Bitcoin it's sort Of mentally taxing because it's like all Right you get this bounce and then you Know based on all this historical data That all right now you got to wait Another month or two just for it to get Another shot at breaking down right I Mean this is what happened right every You know if it if it gets these big Bounces it's not like it's not like it Just immediately goes down I mean this This bounce occurred here the week of

January 8th and it's now February 8th Right it's been a month already and when We got this bounce you know we we talked About hey guys it's probably not it's Probably going to be a while it's going To take several weeks you know at the Very least for E Bitcoin to get back Down to the range low and it's probably Going to require Bitcoin to go you know To work it you know to sort of work it Out right go up Go Down chop the altcoin Market Up you can also visualize this by Looking at all Bitcoin pairs right so This here here is total three minus usdt Divided by Bitcoin and I think it's a Great chart at better understanding Al Altcoin bubbles against Bitcoin right if You just sort of look at the range low And then look at these Highs you can pretty clearly see bubbles Right I mean you can you can clearly see This is this was an um an altcoin bubble Against Bitcoin it went straight up and Then it took a long long time to fade Back down right and what's funny is that This move back to the upside didn't even Occur until mid mid post having year I Mean it literally not for another 15 Months compared to Now I mean from this Peak Al altcoins bled against Bitcoin Collectively for about 157

Weeks if you take it from from the you Know if you take it from this September High here it's been about 125 weeks and If you take it from this peak sort of The final top in January similar as as This one it's only been 108 Weeks so in my mind for as an investor If you want exposure to crypto that's Why I've said for two years now I think Bitcoin is where you want to be because It gives you exposure to the upside but It also minimizes your downside risk Right we're all investors here we we Understand there's risks both ways I we Know that you know Bitcoin could go up And if it goes up it's nice to have Exposure to an asset that's appreciating We know that Bitcoin can go down I mean It's not like we're we're immune to that Idea we've seen it happen many times we Talk about the downside risk a lot so That we're aware of what it is but again The issue is that if Bitcoin goes up all Bitcoin pairs likely break down if Bitcoin goes down down all USD pairs Likely go down right so like and if you Think the Bitcoin dominance rally is Going to be this thing that just goes on Until we get back to loose monetary Policy then the way you preserve the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio is To just mostly be in Bitcoin now I know Everyone's going to say well what about X altcoin or Y altcoin hey more power to

You if you're making money in the Altcoin market I'm not here to Discourage you I'm just saying hey you Know if we look back at this cycle in a Few years and and just see the altcoin Market eventually you know did what it Did last cycle and it eventually breaks Down it's not like it's not like fading The dominance rally was a smart move Right I mean you could have preserved This satosi valuation of your portfolio Better just by being in a in a Bitcoin Heavy portfolio now let's look closely At at at what altcoins are doing against Bitcoin if you Look I'm I'm sort of making the case That we're emulating this part of the Cycle right um where we we came into a Low Here and then we bounced off of it right There and then we eventually broke down In July now remember July is an Important month not because that's Where the FED started to expand their Balance sheet because they were not Expanding their balance sheet then Remember they didn't start that until September that's where altcoins bottomed Against Bitcoin right here where the FED Started to expand their balance sheet if You're not familiar if you if you forgot What I what I what I mean it's this line Right here the purple Line so right here is where the FED let

Me change it to to a different color so We can see it that's where all Bitcoin Pairs Bottomed all Bitcoin pairs finally broke Down in June one month before the First Rate cut one month first straight cut Was in July all Bitcoin pairs broke down In June the last week of June of 2019 so I think it makes sense to say That this phase right here is similar to This phase right here where we come in And we set a low at around 40% this was 43% over here it was about 40% and we Bounce off of that low for a while and Then eventually at some Point it it finally gives and you can Even See how Closely how how similar it is right you Put in a low and then you even go below That low right you have a wick slightly Below that initial low same thing right A low and then you have a wick slight Below that initial low and then you get A bounce back to the Upside this bounce took you all the way Up to about 53% this bounce here took You about to 50 51% and then you know is it just going To fade back down and again the question Is if it does fade back down does it end Up Breaking that low right or sorry this One here does it does it end up going

Below this what you would look For is a weekly close in the same way That when when we talk about the eth Bitcoin pair you look for a weekly close Below 0049 for this metric for for total 3 Minus usdt to V by Bitcoin you look for A weekly close below. 39 or sorry below 04 if it's 39 a weekly close at 39 or Lower then it means that Bitcoin has Finally broken altcoins off of their Bitcoin support level Collectively as long as it's above 39 Then Bitcoin still has work to do And if we get back to looser monetary Policy and it still hasn't broken down Then I might be willing to Pivot my Stance but until that actually happens I Don't see any point in changing you know Sort of my bias on it one thing to Consider and this is not a popular thing But I mean I have to mention it is that A lot of altcoins do just bleed against Bitcoin over a long enough time period Right if you were to go look at at any Altcoin that's been around for you know Two or three Cycles nine you know most Of them not all there's a few that are Not but most of them become bleeders Against Bitcoin eventually maybe not the First cycle sometimes maybe not even the Second cycle but eventually they end up Becoming a bleeder against Bitcoin and You can kind of see it I mean even in in

The in the altcoin chart if you were to Draw a parallel channel right from here To here I mean you can kind of see It look at look at it like this I mean You have a high and these are these are Lower highs You have a low this is a lower Low so if most individual altcoins bleed Against Bitcoin over a long enough time Period you could make the case that the Altcoin the collective altcoin Market Bleeds against Bitcoin over a long Enough time period I don't know I don't Really I don't know how compelled I am To to really go with that because you Could also easily make the case that Altcoins are an oscillator against Bitcoin with a low there and a low there And a low there and this is this Deviation that you shouldn't be too Concerned about just like perhaps this Was a deviation that we shouldn't be too Concerned about so I'm going into this With an open mind in term well that Might be somewhat comical right I'm Going into it with the idea that all Bitcoin pairs break down to 25% right From 44 oh they just went to 44 45 44 I'm going into it thinking they're going To break down from 45% down to 25% from that level I I I I don't really care if they go a Little bit lower I mean maybe they go to

20% um maybe not but when you get down To these levels they're they're getting To be more attractive with respect to Bitcoin now that doesn't mean they can't Go down against the US dollar but it Could mean that they finally stop have Stopped bleeding against Bitcoin The Telltale sign would be that if Bitcoin Goes down for a few weeks if altcoins Are going down at a slower Pace than Bitcoin or at a similar Pace as Bitcoin Then you know that you know Bitcoin Really broke the altcoin market and now It's just a matter of time before Sufficient QE comes back and then we go Back up right now I want to show you Another chart and that's the same chart But now we're going to include ethereum And the way you do that is you look at Total 2 minus USD bcoin and when you Look at this one it's slightly different In the sense that it hasn't really come Down to that same level that total three Did if you guys remember total three Came back all the way down to this level Or close to it whereas total 2 minus USD Bitcoin which includes eth is still way Up here you know so this metric arguably Needs to go down to this level at the Very least just to get back to where it Was back over here in September 2018 now I am not personally convinced That this metric has to go all the way Back down to this level down here I

Don't I don't necessarily think that it Has to we could make the case I could Make the case that it could but I also Think that there is a reason to think That for this Metric 58% or so you know could be a Significant level the reason I say that Is if you look at at eth Bitcoin which The only difference between total three And total two is you're adding in eth if You look at eth Bitcoin you know it is True that it's been putting in lower Highs since 2017 it's also been putting In higher lows so for a lot of altcoins There's a a pretty clear trend of lower Highs and lower lows but for eth that Trend isn't as clear right it's not as Clear and you know a lot of people say Well Ben you know why are you always so Embarrassed on eth bitcoin Guys what what reason was there to be Bullish on it I mean hell it's just gone Down for two years now right so what I'm Saying is you know what if eth bit sorry What if eth Bitcoin just comes back down to this Trend line Here Around 03 to 04 if it bottoms out there Which I think it could then that means That total 2 minus USD Bitcoin doesn't Necessarily have to go back down to These lows down Here remember I'm not calling for 70%

Dominance have I ever said that Bitcoin's dominance is going to 70% I Mean it could could anything's possible But that has never been my target what's My target 60 % why 60% well 60% is there's a few reasons a lot of Times when you get these you know these These bubbles these all Bitcoin bubbles You sort of return back to where it Broke down from and you can see that it Really started to break down this this Big Trend down started at 60% right this Major move where it just started go down Week after week after week it started at 60% so that's the reason why it's my Target then Later just by happen stance I I mean Again I I I haven't really been been big On the FIB retracement tool in the past I've gotten a little bit more accustomed To it recently but when you look at the FIB retracement tool and you look to see You know the different levels we've Already made it back up to the 382 I think the next stop is 0.5 which Corresponds to 56% dominance which I Think will be a big milestone and then Finally the 618 the 618 happens to be 60% dominance precisely right I mean 60% Dominance which happens to be where we Broke down from right after SL just Slowly grinded down and then the major Breakdown occurred at 60% I think it's Going back to 6.8 funny enough if you

Look at where it broke down last Cycle Bitcoin dominance rallied to the 618 that's precisely where it rallied To the 618 last cycle the 618 was 73% This cycle to 618 is 60% so I'm not Calling for dominance to necessar go Back to where it was I'm just saying Hey What if it goes up and goes to 60% you Can see that it put in a a higher low Perhaps it'll you know it'll put in a a Lower high and only go up to say you Know 60% or something I I don't know There I mean look you could always make A case that it's going to go higher than 60% right if you want to if you want to Say that maybe it's an oscillator or or Something but that's not my focus right Now my focus is I think it's going to 60% and from that level I'm going to be More open-minded to you know to the Bitcoin dominance topping out until 60% My bias on dominance is still higher and Yes anytime I make this video people are Like well what about so and so says it's Already topped out they've all been Saying the same thing for like two years Now and it just keeps on going higher so What do I say you know at what point yes Eventually they'll be right eventually The dominance will Top out but you know They've been been wrong for two years Now I they're not do you think they're Going to change their mind now and say That it's you know that that it's not

Going to go up U or that it'll go up if They've been bearish on dominance for Two years no why not because they want Their altcoins to go up that's why they Want their altcoins to pump against Bitcoin that's why most people are here Is to make money on alts right don't Let's not kid ourselves most people here Want to make money on all Coins the problem is that during certain Phases you're you're better off with Just Bitcoin preserving that valuation And then going into altcoins after the Dominance is likely top now that sort of Raises the question well how do you know Dominus is topped none of us do none of Us know it's possible that it's already Topped there's people that are probably Smarter than me that think it's already Topped and maybe they're right I'm just Saying if you look at at history it took Looser monetary policy for dominance to Top and so perhaps that's what it'll Take this time and because we're dealing With inflation And because we're dealing with a very Resilient US economy and a labor market That has been resilient as well what Reason does the FED have to Pivot right Now and is you know if you guys Remember do you guys remember this rally Here by alts against Bitcoin right right here that was right Around the time that like the market was

So convinced we were going to get a March rate cut and then that rate that March Ray cut got priced out and as it Got priced out all Bitcoin pairs fell This is not I mean I know we could say That one data point doesn't make a trend And you're right it it certainly doesn't But this trend goes beyond Crypto again look at look at the Russell Divided by the NASDAQ the Low the the Russell low against the NASDAQ in November it's now returned Back to It right the the rty divided by ndq it's Back to where it was in November nober Of 2023 and it got like this on a rally By the NASDAQ right it was a rally by The NASDAQ that that took it back up it Was a rally by the NASDAQ Now look at all Bitcoin Pairs they have not yet returned to that November that November Low I'm saying I think they will meaning That they alt coins could drop another 10% against Bitcoin just to get back Down to the range Low and I think they're going to go Below that right I think they're going To eventually go below that around the Time of that First Rate cut one of the Things that you may have noticed in this Market is that we're just chasing one Narrative after another we it was the it

Was the merge for E when eth bitcoin's Going up it was the spot ETF and Following the spot ETF for Bitcoin there Was a an immediate rotation into eth Because people were thinking about the Eth ETF and saying all right well now It's time for eth to shine And what did I say I said guys look that The the EF is great and all but there's A problem with that thesis and the Problem is twofold first of all we're Not back in looser monetary policy Second of all the having comes before The ETF the ETF is probably not until May at the earliest and that's assuming It gets approved and it might not even Get approved so if we're chasing one Narrative after another I think what a Lot of people did is they immediately Said all right Bitcoin spot ETF it's It's done let's go chase the The Narrative for eth But then the Market's like well what if It doesn't get approved the having comes First and we're still in tight monetary Policy so why should eth Bitcoin durably Go up right now and you can see that it Came right back down right eth Bitcoin Has simply faded right back down off of That off of that bounce do you guys Remember that trend line from I mean it Feels like forever ago this trend line Over Here we were watching this trend line

For a long time this is a trend line by The way that a lot of people told me I Was wrong on and that it would bounce Off of here if you guys remember that You guys probably don't it was mostly on On on Twitter or X but I had so many People tell me that like this was going To break up to the upside and and and That it would never break down it broke Down we actually got back into it but This most recent Wick came right up to that 21 we EMA and Right up to that downtrend line and then And it got rejected off of it So I suspect it's only a matter of time I think that Bitcoin when Bitcoin dominance is at 56% I think that eth Bitcoin has durably Broken down why is 56% also Important well 56% is actually last Cycle is where sorry the 05 retracement Last cycle is where Bitcoin USD found a local high right it's where It found a local High um and I I'm not Putting a ton of weight into that I I've I've recognized many times in the past That when Bitcoin gets into these like You know these manic type phases where It just goes up and up and up like not To try to stand in the way and say that It can't go higher like I fully admit it Could go higher I mean it could go um You know it could always go higher right I mean you know there's always a reason

Why it could continue to go up it's Impossible to time to top it's possible To time it I don't know where the top is Before there's a larger drop I know that So far the rallies by Bitcoin um or the Draw Downs by Bitcoin have been about 20% about 20% or so and and the one we Just got was no different it was about a 20% drop they've all been 20% this is Why I said over here guys this might be All you get for a while doesn't mean you Can't eventually go below it but I mean It's a 20% drop all these other ones Were 20% drops in 2019 during QT we also Had similar types where it would only Drop a few percent right it would only Drop a few percent by the time you got a Larger drop and people were finally like A finally a 30% drop let's Pile in now It was too late we were already in a Downtrend but what was interesting about It if if you go look at at dominance is That when when we hit that 0.5 Retracement level so when when we we Went through the0 five that is what Marked the top for for Bitcoin USC Loosely right I mean you can see that Once we hit that 0.5 Target June 24th That is where Bitcoin USD topped a local Top right I mean we didn't go put in a New low but it was in fact a a local top Right Here you see that where where Bitcoin Dominance went to the 0. five that's

What marked that local high on on Bitcoin USD and then after that Bitcoin USD um Um you know was was stuck in traffic on Struggle Street for a little bit um as As the economy was you know as the Fed Was increasing the size of their balance Sheet but they they weren't really doing Enough at the time um the S&P continued To climb higher right the S&P loved Loose to monetary policy altcoins loved Loose to monetary policy with respect to Bitcoin but unfortunately because Bitcoin was then in a downtrend alt USD Pairs went down right so even though all Bitcoin pairs bottom down out all USD Pairs then went down So this is why I talk about you know Managing risk and and and whatnot and You know I know there's all sorts of Different strategies people have some People are just completely you know Fully 100% committed YOLO um you know They're calling for 300K again you know And and then other people are are are You know 100% cash um and and they're Not hedged at all I think it makes sense To be somewhere in between right I mean Because and I've said that forever I Mean you know if you if you're 100% cash You have no exposure to the potential Upside and it it's not that it's not That the asset class can't eventually Get a larger pullback the problem is

That if you have no exposure then you Run the risk of basically buying the top Because you feel like you're getting Left behind so by having some exposure You can enjoy the Upside while also saying you know what So what if Bitcoin gets some type of Flash crash at some point where it drops 50% which happens I mean I know it Sounds crazy but I mean it happens um so What right I mean eventually it'll Probably recover and and continue to go Back up because what is the Fed do the FED prints more money when the FED Prints more money that money finds a Home what you know if you're going to be In crypto and you believe that crypto Has a future you know bitcoin's got to Survive like I I I mean I'm sorry but if Bitcoin doesn't survive that's not a Good omen for the rest of the asset Class like Bitcoin is what controls the Market it's not ethereum it's not Cardono it's not salana it's not polka Dot or chain link or or or madic or Whatever it's not any of those if Bitcoin were not Here those altcoins you know well they Wouldn't even exist right so you know I Know I know a lot of people compare Bitcoin to like AOL and and Myspace and All that sort of stuff but it's not it's Not a fair comparison I mean like Bitcoin you know effectively is in a

Class of it of its own um and I know That sounds you know a bit like Maxi Talk and I get that but I think it Really does make a lot of sense s of Separate out your portfolio if you're Going to expand into altcoin say okay You have your Bitcoin portfolio and then You have your everything else portfolio And if you look closely for long periods Of time your altcoin portfolio will Bleed against your Bitcoin portfolio if You never take profits in the Altcoins okay um and we can look at a Few examples right I mean there's There's definitely a lot of examples we Could look at um you know I I I do like To pick on on Ada mainly because you Know this is one I've talked about many Times and I also think it's a really Great altcoin for just observing the Cycles right like it's one of the few Altcoins that actually put in a new All-time high um two cycles in a row Most altcoins don't do that um a few do Most don't so it AA put in a new high on Its USD pair two cycles in a row and and You can see it also you know carved out A pretty nice bottom over here at around 400 STS but what the better way to look At this is I I feel like for a lot of People they they think like oh well 1160 STS what does that even mean you know Well the way to make it mean something Is you go take the inverse of it and you

Can see you can pretty clearly see right Here if you you know one Bitcoin was was Equivalent to 17,000 Ada today one Bitcoin is equivalent to 82,000 Ada Right so I mean it's been a huge Difference just an absolute enormous Difference um so I mean like imagine you Had sold your Bitcoin for Ada or sorry Imagine you sold your Ada for Bitcoin in 2021 I mean you literally could get like Four to five times your Ada for that Bitcoin right you just you you held on To bitcoin throughout the entire bare Market and and even in in in throughout All 2023 you wrote it up you wrote it Down bitcoin's effectively the same Price as it was at near the beginning of 2022 but your purchasing power to buy Ada has gone up 5x you know four to 5x And all you did was Bitcoin during QT And during High interest rates that's All you did you didn't try to time the Market Beyond just saying hey we're Going into into into a QT higher Interest rates where the fed's going to Crack down for a while to solve this Inflation Issue just send Bitcoin write it out Right write it out and no matter where Bitcoin ends up you're likely going to Be able to buy that altcoin for a lot You know a lot more of that altcoin for The same amount of Bitcoin for the same Amount of Bitcoin same thing for all

These other alts right dot Bitcoin Same thing you know take the inverse of It back over here one Bitcoin would have Gotten you 1,00 dot today when Bitcoin Gets you 6 6,500 dot all you had to do Is sit in Bitcoin for the last couple Years you didn't have to predict where The market was going to go you Didn't you didn't care about that you Just said hey I don't know where the Market's going to go I'm just going to Sit in Bitcoin until we get back to Looser monetary policy I don't know when We're going to get back to looser Monetary policy that's the great thing About it it doesn't matter until we do All Bitcoin pairs likely go down a lot Of times after I make these videos at Some point in the next week or two Altcoins will get some form of a pump Against Bitcoin that be like well you Said guys look at eth Bitcoin it I mean yes it's had some Pretty great pumps but Like who's been on the wrong side of the Market right the person that has been Bearish on eth bitcoin or the person Who's bullish on it I mean even if you Look at it on say like a longer time Frame I mean it kind of looks like It held support throughout this entire Phase and then here it broke down and Then it just back tested it a couple Times and it just can't get back above

It and what again it likely just Continues to bleed and then eventually It breaks Down maybe it breaks down in March maybe It breaks down in May I don't know Probably is going to correspond to Whenever the First Rate cut comes so Could be sooner could be later I don't Know but I can tell you I'm not that Interested in eth Until It goes Until It Breaks the range low And I get that's somewhat Deterministic if you want to be more Risky then you could always have eth in Your portfolio and again if you if if You're going to expand Beyond Bitcoin I Personally think not Financial advice I Personally think ethereum is the second Best option right I think it is the Second best um but even in that case Even in that case if you're if you if You have eth I mean you have to be aware That it's still in a downtrend against Bitcoin and that hasn't yet been proven Otherwise it really Hasn't you can also look at at eth Bitcoin and compare it to uh net Liquidity we we did a video on this Recently and you can pretty clearly see Like that it it really is a function of Of net liquidity right like net Liquidity um you know is putting in These lower lows so is eth

Bitcoin right I mean you can see that Like this bounce here in net liquidity Kind of corresponds to this balance by Eth Bitcoin I mean it's pretty clear right And if if net liquidity continues to go Down which the the the central banks Around the world while some are Expanding them like China um most are Still reducing the size of their balance Sheet and you could also argue that the Dollar if you look at the dollar if the Dollar goes back up that's going to make Liquidity go down because all these you Know all the balance sheets being Converted to US dollars when we add them Up and it looks like the dollar could be Going back up um it kind of looks like The Bitcoin dominance chart To some degree I've talked about this a Few times Um right a high a lower high a low a Lower Low right same thing right a high a Lower high a low and then a lower low Then going back to bitcoin dominance Right and then a lower low and then a Higher high dxy a lower low and then a Higher high Bitcoin Dominance double bottom rejection off The bull market support band right Here and then back up dxy we got one low I don't know if it's going to go back Down I honestly I don't know I don't

Really care um if you look at the Bullmark SP and though it's right at the 20we ese so if it gets rejected here off The 20we SMA and goes back down um then I would look for a potential double Bottom or a slightly higher low and then Maybe it blast off or maybe it doesn't Need to make that move and it just keeps Going higher if you were to look at the Euro uh again you know Euro USD you can See that it kind already had sort of a Double bounce right it went up um to Back up to the trend line got rejected Came back up to it again got rejected Now it's back below the 20we moving Average one way to look at the dollar is To you know you can look at it like this But you could also look at the inverse Of It right sort of these potential Distribution and this is potentially Just a Um Um potentially just back testing it Right you have you know you put in a low A higher low a higher low you break it And then you just go back up and back Test It maybe that's all it's Doing and if the dollar goes up that Means inverse dollar goes down and if Inverse dollar goes down that means net Liquidity Goes Down And if net liquidity Goes down it implies that e Bitcoin

Breaks down and if eth Bitcoin breaks Down it likely means Bitcoin dominance Goes up and if Bitcoin dominance goes up The satosi valuation of your portfolio Is best preserved by being Bitcoin Heavy as opposed to altcoin Heavy you can also look at at Bitcoin Dominance plus ethereum dominance which I think is kind of interesting to look At um when you look at it like this you Know you can kind of see like last cycle Bitcoin dominance plus eth dominance Actually had a local top here at 73% Right there just like it did right here Up to 73% and then it came down here to 67 68% which is exactly where it just Came down to and then after going to 67 68% it then blasted through these Milestones and went all the way back up Here some people say well you know all The stable coin Market's going to make It so the Bitcoin dominance can't go up Guys I'm not calling for 70% again I'm Calling for 60 which is 133% below the Last Cycle's high of 73 You could also look at Bitcoin dominance Plus usdt Dominance and see that it's in the same Exact phase where it was late business Cycle in 2019 right I mean like look at where it Is right here the same spot that it was In May April May of

2019 just before Bitcoin got that final Pop up and finally broke all Bitcoin Pairs down that final move and it Finally broke all Bitcoin pairs Down right here in June one month before The First Rate cut so I think it's only A matter of time before it does the same Thing this again this is Bitcoin Dominance plus USD dominance so get the USD get the stable coin dominance stuff Out of here because this includes It then it maybe it breaks up and then It it potentially goes all the way back Up um you could also include uh usdc Dominance I I even drew it out right I previously Drew it out it looks like it's following It so far Right you can see it right Here bounced right off the low right There same spot in fact that it bounced Off of in May of 2019 right before Bitcoin got that final Push dominance broke up it dominance hit The uh the 0.5 retracement which this Cycle would be 56% that's where it found a local low Right here this usdc dominance plus USD Dominance plus Bitcoin dominance found a Low at 58% then broke through this and Look it even Wicked look local high Right there local high right there at The same level 64% then down to 58 down to 58 and then break back up and

Then it went all the way up to 75% imagine if it went up to 75% and This one you can't say well what about This includes the this includes the two You know two of the largest stable coins USD and usdc So it includes it so in this case it Could maybe it is an oscillator because It includes the stable coin Market we Could also go look at at and this is the Biggest you know one of the biggest Cases to be made for you know for Dominance not being as strong is to go Look at um sort of year-to-date Performance in having Years this is probably the thing gives Me the biggest pause um if you look at At say like 2012 which I mean 2012 Weren't really a lot of altcoins uh 2016 And 2020 you can see that dominance Didn't really go up that much I mean it Went like maybe a few percent above the Yearly open but also we were in loose Monetary policy at the time you know There's a big debate going on right now Is like you know what's Bitcoin falling Is it falling monetary policy is it Falling sort of the same Cycles You Could argue sort of doing both I mean Maybe it's still doing both um I I could I could certainly see ways that that Both theories end up panning out because Normally it's in an election year where We go back to loer monetary

Policy historically it has been and it Seems like it's going to be again so but If you overlay 2024 onto here you can See that dominance excluding Stables is Doing something that it hasn't really Done I mean normally it just sort of Falls off a cliff this time it started To fall off a cliff and then it said Just Kidding everyone YOLO back into alts Because they thought dominance train was Over but what if it's not what if what If the dominant rally is not over and it Just keeps on going higher because we Have not yet shifted to looser monetary Policy so that's where we Are and that stuff has happened before I Mean like if you go look at at eth Bitcoin right go look at eth Bitcoin you Know sometimes seasonality doesn't play Out look at 2018 eth Bitcoin and then Look at 2022 eth Bitcoin the merge potentially helped e Bitcoin stay flat in 2022 but then in 2023 it went down and So far in 2024 it's it's still at at Relatively flat but if you compare say 20120 to 2024 and 2016 you can see that at this point in The year e Bitcoin is underperforming Both prior having years Bitcoin having Years both of them it's underperforming Them at this point and we'll see if it

Changes but so far it is Not So I mean that's yeah that's essentially Where we are um I think I've made my Case probably about three dozen times on On bitcoin dominance over the last Couple years and it's Been it's been a long journey um for Sure I I hope that these videos have Been useful to some people I I I think They have it's nice seeing the you know The positive feedback occasionally a lot Of times the the dominance videos just Make a mockery of myself um on on Twitter but I think it has worked out I I think that you know the dominance Rally is still Intact yes there's some there's some Trend lines we got to break through Right I'm not going to not going to try To sugarcoat it and say it's a sure Thing um you know there's some trend Lines here potentially that that that The dominance has got to break through To sort of solidify it um you could also Look at it as potentially a sort of an Ascending triangle let's look at it on The weekly and and then just look at the Um the line Chart maybe we look at it like This and say it's in some form of of Ascending Triangle and if that's the case you know It's only a matter of time before it you

Know breaks out to the Upside so there's a lot to consider There's a lot to consider another thing Too is you know in in order to figure Out if eth Bitcoin is going to break Down alt Bitcoin pairs will probably Break down first is my guess because That's what happened last cycle last Cycle alt Bitcoin pairs broke down a Couple of weeks before E Bitcoin did um Because alt Bitcoin pairs collectively Broke down the week of June 24th Right here the week of June 24th but eth Bitcoin did not break down until the Week of July 8th so it took two weeks so Like if you're looking at some of these Other alts like like madic Bitcoin is a Good example um and it's been sort of Loosely you know tied with eth some to Some degree I mean this is one that you Know I mean this was just sort of a Massive distribution up here and it's Getting squeezed now right like it's Getting squeezed at the range low and Between the bull market support band and There's a chance it breaks up I there's A chance that it does but if it doesn't If it breaks down then it would likely Be a bad Omen for eth and implies that Eth Bitcoin could break down some of These alts have already broken down like If you look at a Bitcoin it broke down Long ago I mean like like the June low

The June 2022 low for a Bitcoin was way Up here right it it broke that long ago And now it's now it's starting to take Out potentially the June 2023 low right I mean you see like you you give it long Enough and they just they just keep Breaking down right I mean I know it's Not popular you know when I first when I First joined crypto I I recognize some Of these Trends I he I I think I Remember hearing some people talk about How a lot of altcoins would just break Down against Bitcoin and I didn't want To hear it I was like no you know no you Know you don't know my altcoin is Special you know you're not going to You're not going to to convince me and You give it enough time and so many of These altcoins they just become bleeders You might not believe me now but when You look at relics from prior Cycles That's what they become look at Dash Bitcoin it just never stops bleeding Right yeah occasionally it pumps some But this is I mean it's been going down Since March 2017 with a few a few pumps In Between even Monero I I mean I like I Have no problem against Monero I used to I used used to have um Some but how do I hold an asset that Just keeps on bleeding against Bitcoin Like what am I supposed to do you know And last year 2022 uh well la in 2022 so

Many people were telling me hey you know What about XMR BTC what about it I mean So what it rallied for a little while Now it's just putting in new lows right That it hasn't XMR BTC hasn't hasn't Gone this low since August of 2016 I know I know you think that that you Know it's it's not your altcoin but I'm Telling you 99% of altcoins this is what The chart will eventually look like Against Bitcoin and the altcoins that Are responsible for the the next altcoin Bubble against Bitcoin so like let's Just fast forward in time and assume That you know we eventually break down We spend some time down here and then Eventually it breaks back up the Altcoins that are responsible for the Next alt Bitcoin Bubble most of them are probably going To be new that didn't even exist in 2021 And there will be some that will pull up Put on new highs um that existed in the Last cycle there will likely be some and The way to sort of figure those out is To see which ones are are holding their Lows on their Bitcoin Pair I I guys I didn't want to I didn't want to see it When I first joined crypto but that is The trend right like that is the trend It it's clear that it it has been the Trend we can say this time is different But what if it's

Not what if it's really Not you know I mean that's where I stand Others Bitcoin some people say well how Come you never look at others others Bitcoin It's been more it's been better than Than total three divided by Bitcoin I'll Give you that others divided by Bitcoin Has been better than to Total three I I Think others just doesn't include the Top 10 I believe um so it includes Everything below that some more of them Getting into sort of the micro cat stuff Um you might say well Ben others Bitcoin Pumped 65% since June of 2023 it did over here too right same Type of move it topped out in in March 2019 four months before the First Rate Cut this top here January four months after January is May Perhaps that's when the First Rate cut Occurs in May the one nice thing about others Bitcoin is that it's not Clearly in a Downtrend right so this is your bullish Case longterm for Bitcoin pairs is that You know maybe it doesn't have to be a Bleeder Maybe not maybe maybe it's an Oscillator but I'm I'm saying it's in The best case Scenario it's an oscillator in the best Case right so this would be my best case

Scenario for altcoins worst case Scenario would be something like that Right where it's it's just you know They're just macro bleeding against Bitcoin so that's your worst Case and I feel like this is your best Case it's just it's an Oscillator the uh the the uh the D gen Case would be something like you know Trying to you know trying to look at at These lows here or something and and Saying that it'll hold and maybe it will Guys I mean like I'm trying to be Open-minded about it Um I mean if it falls back in and can't And it can't break these lows and we get Back to loose monetary policy as I said I'll I'll probably pivot my view and be Like all right well we tried um and they Didn't break down I think they will Break down because I I think we're still You know a few months probably from rate Cuts and last cycle they didn't bought Them out until two months after rate Cuts so I just I don't know how they're Going to hold these lows for you know For the next half year I I mean again Every time they get pumped up it's the Ele elator up and the stairs down I mean Everyone gets so excited when they pump And then they just slowly bleed back Down I mean you can kind of feel like The uh you know people losing interest And it's like why Bitcoin is up like why

Are people losing Interest shouldn't more people be here Looking at Crypto they're Not look at the social R it's at1 124 right where is Everyone they're not here why not Because most people don't care about Bitcoin they care about their Altcoins where did social risk finally Start to Trend up last Cycle it put in a low in late 2018 and Then it put in a higher low in September 2019 when the FED shifted to looser Monetary Policy that's what brought people Back cheaper money right and we're just Not there yet you can see the social Risk going down you might what's the Social risk well um look at and I guess It's not just my channel you might say Well Ben no one cares about your boring Stuff it's not just my channel right I Mean it's all these channels all these Channels look at This even even this rally the 30-day SMA Of YouTube views to all these YouTube Channels was still was still a lower High compared to uh compared to to to August of 2023 right these are all lower Highs people are still leaving despite The fact that prices are going Up so it's more than just price that

Brings people to crypto right it's more Than just price it's also monetary Policy you know if if if everyone if so Many people are worried about You know rent and I mean I know a lot of People watching this video you know You're you're you're you're a lot of People are probably doing fine in life Right and you got a lot of spare money To sort of throw around right otherwise You're probably not spending an hour Watching a Bitcoin dominance video okay Um but a lot of people you know they're Just not coming back yet and I don't I Mean I don't I mean I guess loose Monetary policy will bring them back but I don't know we'll see it's not just Based on on this it's also based on some Other metrics YouTube Subscribers had a little bit of a pop Recently but it kind of seems like it's Trending back down um it's also based on On Twitter Twitter followers to various Analysts on Twitter got a little bit of A pop recently but it kind of just keeps Has gone back down um exchanges a big Pop recently actually a lot of it is Advertising too but that too is also Putting in lower highs in the face of Rising prices Twitter followers to layer Ones Some renewed interest recently right Some again I'm not ask I'm not saying That like you know you have to look at

This and and sit on your hands I've said For two years my crypto portfolio is Just Bitcoin heavy because I know that As people leave the crypto verse Bitcoin Dominance goes up because all that all That you know that all those bids to Sort of buy the dip on Altcoins they they're just not there's Not as many of them and so the altcoins They just can't keep Pace with Bitcoin It doesn't mean they can't go up I'm not I'm not trying to say they can't go Up if Bitcoin goes up it can lift the Altcoin market with it I mean look at Look at total Three it's well off the low right it's All the way up here it's well off the Low Bitcoin goes up it can it can take The altcoin market with it that's not The point it never was the point was That like you know if you're going to Buy if you're going to buy Bitcoin or if You're going to buy crypto the only way The altcoin market goes up during QT Late business Cycles if Bitcoin went up First Bitcoin doesn't go up the altcoin Market probably not going to go up and If if the altcoin market only goes up Because Bitcoin goes up then why not Just have Bitcoin right that's the Argument right that's been the argument For a long time I mean I get that that Some altcoins have gone up some reason Seem like at Ada you know it's at it's

At 53 cents whoop-de-do right it's back To where it was September of 2022 in September of 2022 Bitcoin was at 20 you know at 20K It's at 46k now right like it's it's two And a half times almost that price eight Is at the same price it Was total Three the same level that it was back in In May at the the collapse in May of 2022 Bitcoin it's where it was in March of 2022 and the issue is That if Bitcoin at some point gets a Correction right I know it's impossible To imagine that right now um but if it Does get a correction you know in 2024 it can afford to give back a lot And still be well Above these prior levels whereas the Altcoin Market doesn't have that same luxury Right like it's not that far off the low I'm not saying that it has to out the Low but you can see like why Bitcoin has Been safer is because like if if Bitcoin Corrects then we a hell with the altcoin Market as long as Bitcoin goes up yeah The altcoin market will will sort of Chase it but why not just be in Bitcoin Over over altcoins um I mean the Bitcoin Risk right now is relatively high so I Mean that that's sort of one issue um With getting into Bitcoin um at these

Levels like the the risk is getting Pretty elevated so I'm not I'm not Trying trying to imply that it's like You know risk-free or anything like that In fact I I think the um you know while I I I mean it's possible Bitcoin could Go higher it's also true that the risk On bitcoin is pretty high right Now I mean it's it's it's in the 0.5 to Point 6 rband right so it's it's a Little bit and it's already gone to the0 67 rband so it's basically the same kind Of level that it was here in 2019 so There so the same level so you know I There's a lot of people that bought in 2019 and they they watched Bitcoin drop And this still went up eventually right So um but I mean the risk is is somewhat Elevated personally I buy Bitcoin below 04 risk right now it's at 0 58 risk so I Buy it below 04 risk I had several limit Orders filled in late 2022 that were all Published on ITC premium yes I could Have bought more I could have yoed all My cash in I didn't I'm more risk averse Right like I I want to buy some in case It goes up but I want to preserve some Of my Capital um to hopefully to Hopefully take advantage of some of of Some sweet deals uh that can Occasionally present themselves right we Never know when you know when larger Draw Downs are going to happen but they Do sometimes happen right I mean they do

Sometimes occur and it's hard to know When they're going to occur but they do Happen and when they do it's worthwhile To have some cash to be ready for them Right there there's a reason you know It's not always a good idea to just be 100% in I mean it it it all sounds good When the market is going up at one point You wake up and the Market's down 40% It's nice to have some cash um and even The most bullish people will admit that There will be drops eventually right so Far we've just seen 20% drops um so I Mean it'll be interesting to see if if If if and when Bitcoin dominance hits That 0.5 retracement if that corresponds To a you know to a um a important level For Bitcoin us or not or if Bitcoin USD Just continues to defy everything and And and go up I don't know my guess is That Bitcoin will just continue to chop Around and and chop the altcoin market Up for a while longer we still have the Having in April um and so that narrative I I imagine will still be sort of the Strongest narrative over the eth ETF Narrative um maybe from April to may People then go back to the whole eth Narrative in fact I mean if you look at At eth Bitcoin I don't know when it's going to Break down or if but I I do think it Will but if you look at it you can see Last cycle it it bounced here in you

Know in the month of December and then It got another bounce in May right so it had one bounce here in December and then another bounce in May This bounce here curred in January I Don't know if it's going to bounce again Or if it'll just go through probably Depends on how strong Bitcoin stays but Um um you know if if eth Bitcoin doesn't Break down before May then you could see Another little pop like that and then it Break down right but if that happens and It might imply that the First Rate cut Doesn't come until June Right so um we will see we'll See I think I've probably gone on long Enough um I don't know what else to talk About feel like I've spoken mostly About I mean just everything I could Really think of We'll see if it we'll see if it breaks Out the highest weekly close on bitcoin Dominance is this cycle is 54.3 uh no 54.0 N i mean it's already at 50 I mean it's Less than a percent it's less than a Percent just to get to a new weekly Close High it' have to go all the way up To um 55.2 six is where it went in December it actually went higher on this Wick but because it only did it in like A like an hour L Wick it doesn't even Show it on trading view if you go to Like a minute candle or an hourly candle

You can actually see it went up to 55.3 3% in the beginning of January so really It needs to go up you know 2% from here Like 55.3 3% would be a new High um doesn't mean it's going to go Straight there we could go up get Rejected off the trend line go back down Um and you can pretty clearly see right Like this double bottom here on bitcoin Dominance is I mean look you can see it At total 2 minus us out of Bitcoin right It's the same thing like it's just a Double Top and you can see it's just got Rejected off the 20 we Ese this one total three already below The 20we ese total three minus USD about A Bitcoin already below the 20 week and You can even connect the Dots and see that it looks like it's Breaking down total two which includes Eth has not yet broken down on that Trend line so first it has to break that Trend line then it has to go all the way Back down to the range low then it has To get a weekly close below the range Low and then once all that happens then I think Bitcoin has finally accomplished Its goal of breaking all Bitcoin pairs Down it's been a long journey the Journey will likely continue for a Little bit longer we'll be on the Lookout for you know once Bitcoin Dominance enters

Into that Final Phase I think it'll be Important um I'll try to be open-minded If if Bitcoin dominance does not break Out between now and looser monetary Policies arrival then I'll try to stay Open-minded until then I I will keep my Bias that dominance will continue higher Until proven otherwise if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom link is in the Description below we have a website with Hundreds if not thousands of charts not Only on crypto but also on stocks and Macro stuff make sure you guys check That out again link is in the Description below you can keep that rate As long as you not cancel see you guys Next time Bye


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