Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we are going to talk about Bitcoin dominance if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on intothe Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse Docomo and jump in now before we get too Far into the dominance videos I I always Like to remind people people repetitive As it may be why Bitcoin dominance is Important okay because if we cannot Establish the importance of tracking it Then it's going to constantly make People think that it's not something Worthwhile to track in the first place So the reason why for me Bitcoin Dominance is quite Frank quite frankly For me the key to unlocking the secrets Of the Cryptoverse is because It tells You if the lowest risk Cryptocurrency is outperforming the Collective altcoin Market or not Remember if you're an investor in crypto And you're putting your money into into Something you want to make sure that the Higher risk things that you're putting Putting your money into are at least Occasionally outperforming the lower

Risk things but if the Bitcoin dominance Is in an uptrend then it generally means That Bitcoin is outperforming the Collective altcoin market now one major Caveat and I I have to address this Right off the bat there are a lot of Altcoins that outperform Bitcoin even When Bitcoin dominance is in an uptrend There are a lot and and I even said many Many times there's always going to be Some that outperform Bitcoin that's how It's always been that's probably how it Will always be there's always going to Be some that outperform Bitcoin even in A Bitcoin dominance uptrend but Oftentimes the altcoins that are Outperforming Bitcoin are changing so Like one that was outperforming last Year might not be outperforming this Year and one that was outperforming this Year probably wasn't outperforming last Year and we'll we'll talk about a few Examples of those but the thing that has Stayed true for the Entire two last couple of years or so is That Bitcoin dominance has been Generally Going up okay and again the reason why I Think it's important is because as an Investor in crypto if I think Bitcoin Dominance is going up then I elect to to Have my own Portfolio be Bitcoin heavy as opposed to Altcoin heavy so for instance I

Converted most of my altcoins back to Bitcoin in q1 of 2022 I converted My ethereum a lot of my eth to Bitcoin In the months before the merge and Leading into the merge so I did that Because of my view that Bitcoin Dominance was going to go higher and While there have been some altcoins that Have done very well and I I congratulate Anyone who's made money on them I'm not I'm not trying to minimize that I'm not Trying to take that away from you I'm Just trying to establish my viewpoint on The market why I have elected to keep my Bitcoin or to keep my crypto portfolio Bitcoin heavy for the last two years and What would make me change my mind okay So the first thing we'll look at here is Just the the the Bitcoin dominance chart And if you look at it you'll see that You know the last three weeks we we saw The Bitcoin dominance March back to the Downside but in this current week in This recent week um we completely wiped Out all those losses in a single week What's really interesting is if you take A look at where we held the bull market Support band on the weekly time frame Back in January of 2023 it was at 41% And then you fast forward basically a Year later we're holding support at it At 51% now Remember Bitcoin dominance occasionally

Checks in with the bull market support Ban right it'll go back down to it it'll Hold it as support it's done that many Many times and in fact you can see that It tested it uh several times over the Last um over the last year there was a Test here at at 41% we also tested the 21 we EMA at at 43% and then we tested It again right here at around 48% so and then we sort of rode that That bull market support Bend for Several months before ultimately you Know blasting off from it once again so You can see we've held support at it a Number of Times and without doubt without a doubt Every single time we have gotten one of These pullbacks every single time Everyone has Thought that it was about to go down a Lot and crater to 30% or 20% if you think back to a lot of the a Lot of the views that that people have Expressed throughout YouTube and crypto Twitter most of them have been bearish On bitcoin dominance for the last two Years constantly calling for for all Season and and constantly calling for uh You know Bitcoin to lose market Share because they think that this time Is different right and this has been Ongoing for a long time and what has Happened is essentially exactly the Opposite right dominance continues to go

Up despite their proclamations that it Won't furthermore a lot of the altcoins That are up are mostly only up because Bitcoin Has Lifted them up right so While people who were bearish on bitcoin Dominance they were May were they maybe Were bullish on altcoins but the only Reason many of those altcoins went up is Because Bitcoin took them higher right So Bitcoin dominance has gone up meaning Altcoins have gone up because Bitcoin Has gone up and not is not the other way Around right it's not the other way Around and so yes Altcoins can go up on their USD pairs if Bitcoin goes up but the problem in most Cases always some exceptions but in most Cases the problem is that Bitcoin has Outperformed most everything else over The last couple of years yes go ahead And list all the ones that I'm I'm that I'm I'm I'm not referring to in the Comments there's always some right I'm Not I'm not trying to say there are not Any but the trend has been clear for a Long time that dominance was in a macro Uptrend and I I do think that you know That we are nearing the time where we Could see sort of you know these final Moves on bitcoin dominance take place And early you know maybe the first half Of 2024 and then and then perhaps the The trend will will start to change but This has been my view I think that this

View has been correct for a long time Despite despite a lot of people not Thinking that it's correct okay so one Of the things that I I I think is Relevant to to to also think about here Are a lot of the you know a lot of the The shorter term time frames because if You look at like the daily time frame on On bitcoin dominance uh let me get this To a normal scale if you look at the Daily time frame on on bitcoin dominance There was there's this trend line that I Know a lot of people have have looked at Um but and and we're we're many we're Celebrating when it when it fell below Low but you can in fact see that that Bitcoin dominance has gone back above it Arguably making this just a fake out you Know and and so I know you could you Could even try to look at this on even Shorter time frames and make the case That you know it's potentially just back Testing but as far as I can tell it's It's broken these trend lines and it's And it's going higher um that's my view Right that's my view so what we're going To do is we're going to make the case as To you know how high Could It ultimately Go we're going to talk about some of the Altcoins that have outperformed at Various stages we're going to talk about You know the general Trends and and I'm Just going to to to to leave you also With maybe a couple of

Counterpoints that that would throw at Least a question mark in my view on the Market I think it's important to sort of Look closely at our own views and say Yeah like I've I've been correct on Bitcoin dominance for a while but that Doesn't mean I'll continue to be correct On it like it it could change at some Point so we're going to talk about a lot Of that sort of stuff okay so Bitcoin Dominance is now at at between 53 and 54% my view for a long time and I and I've ve I've been very vocal about this Since well over here my view has been That dominance is likely trending Towards around 60% Now that seemed crazy when it was back At 38 39% doesn't it seem that crazy now Right I mean it's now it's back to 53 54% it's not really that far away a Couple of different reasons for that View um one of which is if you were to Look at at this FIB retracement tool we We've talked about this a few times but This is just one one view of the market I would argue that this view is not this Tool is not the reason I'm bullish on on On bitcoin dominance this this hasn't Been the reason at all that I've been Bullish on it but if you look at the Breakdown point from last cycle and you See where dominance win it rallied all The way back up to the 618 and then if You go back and look at it this cycle

After the breakdown point you can see That in fact the 618 would correspond to 60% so that's one view that I think Supports the idea that dominance will Continue to go up that is a weak view It's a weak view I you know the the the The technical the TA stuff on on you Know using FIB retracement for me is not A very strong view it's not and and this Has never been the reason why I'm Bullish on bitcoin dominance this view Has been able to convince some people Over the last couple of years that it Was going higher when previously they Didn't think it would but this is not The reason I've been bullish on bitcoin Dominance it never was it never will be The reason I was bullish on bitcoin Dominance is because I I believe we are In a late cycle Environment a late business cycle Environment where as QT as quantitative Tightening continues and as interest Rates stay higher for longer higher risk Assets bleed to lower risk assets and The reason for that if you think Fundamentally if you think about like The stock market the reason why lower Market cap stocks bleed to higher market Cap stocks is because think about it Practically if you're a company like Apple do you think they can survive 5 And a half% interest rates of course Right of course Apple's not going

Anywhere anytime soon yes their stock Price could fall but I don't think any Of us think that we're going to be Unable to buy an iPad or an iPhone next Year because the FED kept rates too high For too long right none of us think that None of us think that that Apple won't Survive if if if Apple doesn't Survive that's you know know I we're Going to have other things to worry About I think a lot of us could agree That a company like apple is going to Survive whatever's coming even though it Could take a big hit doesn't mean it's Not going to survive companies like Google Will Survive you know alphabet Companies like like meta and Microsoft and um and and all the other Main companies that you can think of Like so the quote unquote Blue Chip Companies that you can think of yes they Can take a hit when the economy is bad And yes on their USD valuations they can Go down but guess what people are going To be less worried about those companies Surviving than the micro caps because The issue is that while we think Companies like apple and and and Alphabet and Microsoft while we think Those will likely survive in the end no Matter you know no matter what really The FED does can we really say the same About micro cap stocks that don't have a Healthy cash balance can we say that

About the Russell 2000 when many of Those companies could go bankrupt If the Fed does not cut rates quickly enough if You were to take a look at say the Russell 2000 divided by the S&P 500 what You'll notice is that it has been in a Downtrend for a quite a long period of Time in fact right quite a long period Of time but this move here this big move By the Russell against the S&P did not Occur until after the FED reach Their last rate cut let's overlay us Interest rates onto the chart and you'll See what I Mean so you see this move right here by The Russell this huge outperformance Against the S&P that lasted for about a Year that did not happen until the FED Massively cut rates but you can see that Before that the Russell was bleeding From 2018 from mid 2018 if you think Back to Mid 2018 until March of 2020 yes it had some pretty nice bounces But it did not actually bottom the Russell did not bottom against the S&P Until we went back to looser monetary Policy and the reason is because at that Point once the FED goes back to you know Basically zero you know Z 25 base Point Interest whatever Z effective 0% when They go back to that whatever companies Have survived well monetary polic Monetary policy from that point is only

Going to get easier in the short term so If they haven't declared bankruptcy and They've survived all the hard times then Now that looser monetary policy has Arrived guess what that's when they Start to outperform the S&P 500 right That's when the Russell that's when the Russell starts to even outperform apple Right during during a period after the FED Cuts rates right and you can see Here it wasn't even immediate right I Mean Apple still outperformed but Eventually they got a pretty nice move Against Apple now the macro trend has Still been down because apple is a blue Chip and the Russell 2000 is full of a Lot of companies that eventually just go Bankrupt but you can see where these Larger out performances come from the Russell against a company like apple can Often be during during you know during Periods of of monetary policy that would Sort of support the idea that hey lose From monetary policy is arrived there's Nothing to be worried about right now And and these micro caps can start to Outper form right so we've we've Mentioned that many many times but the Grand scheme a lot of these companies Just bleed against the Blue Chips even Though there's sometimes there's there's There's sort of counter Trend moves in The short Term why are we talking about Apple this

Video is on bitcoin diamonds well it's The same thing it's the same it's the Same idea it's if you're going to hold a Crypto currency during a late cycle Environment a late business cycle Environment what are you going to hold Are you going to hold Bitcoin that has stood the test of time For you know for the last Decade and that even if it does go down On its USD pair even if there is a Recession even if there is a Deflationary spiral whatever and even if Bitcoin takes a big Hit you probably still think it Eventually will recover the problem is That you cannot make the same case for Every altcoin the problem is that a lot Of those altcoins during business cycle Environments they just go bankrupt the Developers move on to something else and Why shouldn't they right they already Preed you know or they they they Pre-mined a lot of tokens they probably Dumped them on you guys while while your Favorite influencers were Shilling them To you and then instead of continue to Develop that project they just go Develop something else where they mint a Ton a ton of more coins right and then They just get people to to Hype that Project Up the problem is that a late business Bus cycle

Environment is not very Conducive for the dominance of micro Caps against the dominance of blue Chips and that is why I've been Fundamentally bullish on the Bitcoin Dominance for all of 2022 and all of 2023 because I looked at the market Cycle looked at the business cycle and Said look guys we're going into a late Business cycle environment and until the FED starts to cut the dominance of Bitcoin is likely going to go up I don't Really care what direction Bitcoin USD Goes whether it goes up or down it's It's mostly gone up but the point is That whether it goes up or down Bitcoin Dominance should go up until we get back To looser monetary Policy have we gone back to looser Monetary policy yet no we have not look At interest rates compared to bitcoin Dominance have we gone back to looser Monetary policy No when did Bitcoin dominance top last Cycle after the FED started cutting Rates not before you know there's a lot Of people on Twitter that have spent the Last two years calling the top on Bitcoin dominance and every single time It goes higher every single time they Then say that's the top I never ever saw Them post anything bullish about it but They're sure as hell going to tell you When the tops here every single

Time it's not a popular view to be Bullish Bitcoin dominance it's really Not I mean honestly next business cycle I don't even know if I'm going to even Talk about it because of how much hate Comes with it but it's not been wrong You know the view has not been wrong Despite what people want to say You know Despite the the people on Twitter the People that make YouTube videos about uh You know about these views whatever These views have not been wrong they Have been correct and you can see very Very clearly that Bitcoin dominance last Cycle did not top until after rate Cuts Arrived and why should they because Until rate Cuts Arrive how do you know that the micro Cap you're out there buying because Someone on Reddit told you about it how Do you know it's going to be even here In in in a year how do you know those Developers aren't they're not going to Just move on to a new project in a year You don't know that but a lot of us Would say Look in 5 years if you were to pull up Coin market cap What do you think you'll See I think most people would say Bitcoin will be there most people would Probably say ethereum will be there Too Beyond those two you're going to get A lot of mixed results now if you're

Watching this you're probably like well You know my altcoin is the best thing Ever it'll be there the problem is that There's millions of other people that Think the same thing as you but for a Different altcoin right so maybe you're Really bullish on altcoin a and you Think it's got the best fundamentals Ever but for every person like you that Thinks that there's a lot of people that Think this altcoin is better or that Altcoin or this altcoin and at the end Of the day the the altcoins that are in The top 10 they constantly change but Bitcoin has stood the test of Time Now why after rate Cuts would Bitcoin Dominance top Fundamentally well that makes sense Right it makes sense if we to actually Go back to looser monetary policy if we Were to actually go back to it which we Probably will sometime this year if we Were to actually go back to looser Monetary Policy that means that the altcoins that Are still around that have Still they're still Kicking then it gives some Confidence to those altcoins because it Says look they just survived the Tightest rate hiking cycle or that the Quickest rate hiking cycle in History during QT where the Fed was

Reducing the size of their balance sheet And if they can survive that Then why why when the FED goes back to Lower rates would they not Outperform against against the blue chip That's the reason why dominance tops is Because the people that and I'm not Talking about you because a lot of People that might be watching this video Have probably been buying all coins for The last two years and you know but I'm Just saying like in general that is the Reason is because the people look at the Market and they Say looser monetary policy means higher Risk stuff has a chance to outperform The lower risk stuff for the last two Years a lot of the higher RIS stuff Hasn't really had a compelling chance to Outperform bitcoin yes some have Outperformed congrats Collective altcoin Market is not so that's why I've been Bullish on bitcoin dominance for so long And if you look you'll see that Bitcoin Dominance had three red weeks in a row Why was that well one reason could be That the market was getting a little bit Ahead of itself and starting to price in A lot of rate Cuts right the market was starting to Price in a lot of rate cuts which again I I think there will be rate Cuts in 2024 that's my base case is that we get Rate Cuts this

Year the problem is that until they Actually Arrive monetary policy hasn't really Changed and there's still a question Mark as to when we're actually going to Get that First Rate cut furthermore There's the question of when the First Rate cut comes is it sufficient to move The needle one of the things you'll Notice is that after Bitcoin dominants Topped it's not like altcoin USD pairs Bottomed right it's not like it's not Like immediately altcoin started to go On a massive Bull Run no they went down They just went down commensurate with Bitco coin right so after this move Right here if you were to Overlay Bitcoin USD after Bitcoin dominance Topped if I can overlay this right here So you can see Bitcoin Bitcoin USD Topped right here in July or June it was Like late June early July Bitcoin Dominance topped a couple of months After that now Bitcoin dominance topped After the First Rate cut Bitcoin USD Topped before the First Rate cut you see Bitcoin topped against the US dollar Before rate Cuts arrived Bitcoin Dominance topped after rate Cuts arrived Why is that why would lowering interest Rates be bad for an asset like Bitcoin Well here's the issue this is the issue That I see is that if if you have Inflation at at at 34% which is still

Well above the fed's goal you have it There and if you have a fed that's Willing to cut rates rates even when Inflation is not back at their target That tells you something it tells you That maybe the economy is slowing down So maybe the reason they're cutting Rates maybe again I I I know just bear With me right and I know this might come As a surprise but maybe the reason They're cutting rates is not because They want to help your altcoin portfolio Maybe they're cutting Rates because the labor market is sof Up the problem though is that a 25 basis Point rate cut is going to do absolutely Nothing for the labor market do you Think there's anyone out there that's Running like a retail shop that you know At 5 a half% they you know their their Their their business is slowing down but The minute that the FED goes to five and A quarter or 5% that's going to move the Needle they're not going to go out and Hire a ton of people just because the FED Cuts 25 to 50 basis points that's Going to do nothing it's not going to Make a difference Right and the the the the type of Investor that is is more risk averse They're still going to be happy with Maybe four to 5% risk free the only way You're going to get the the more risk Averse type of person to go invest in

Into risk assets like the stock market And whatnot is to make it so that the Risk- free rate is a lot lower if the Risk- free rate's only 2 to 3% and Inflation's running at 2 to 3% then it's Almost like you feel compelled to invest More money into risk assets this just so You can get a return right just so you Can get a return There's actually a chart that I can show To sort of illustrate That let me let me show you guys this Chart because I you know I and again This is really I don't know why I'm Showing this but um look at the uh Retail money market funds you see all The money that's poured into money Market funds when did they go down when Does when do when do money market funds Go back down right we go back to looser Monetary AR policy because then the Risk-free rate isn't so great and you go Back and buy the risk assets that you Know that that took a hit because of it So yes in the short Term in the short term rate cuts are Often not a good thing and the reason They're not a good thing is because it's An admission by the Federal Reserve that Says hey guys the economy looks pretty Weak and then the investor respond is to Say there's no way they could be cutting Right now with inflation where it is and The only reason they're cutting is

Because the economy looks really really Bad look at um you know we were just Talking about this in the video recently The uh the different um uh we looked at The employment I I think we looked at The employment one let me see if I can Find that one because that one that one Was an interesting one uh let's see it Was The Services empy employment I Believe ISM it was the ISM look at this Chart so the the uh the United States ISM services employment there's a lot of Different labor market data that doesn't Look that bad initial claims look great Continued claims are a little bit Elevated um unemployment rate still Relatively low counter points is often Low before it goes up look at ISM Services employment it looks it's it's Cratering right now It's lower than it ever was during the Crash you know during it never even went To the 43.3 level is this a fluke or is It real if it's real it means the fed's Going to be cutting soon it means that These cuts are probably coming if that's A real data point and and honestly if That's a real data point this is not Enough rate cuts to move the Needle so so when we think about Bitcoin Dominance and it and the reason why it

Tops out it tops out after rate Cuts Arrive that's what I would think Fundamentally it would top out after Rate Cuts arrive because then the higher Risk stuff can start to compete with the Lower risk Stuff but Bitcoin USD last cycle topped before the First Rate Cut it's pretty Clear so Bitcoin USD tops First Rate Cuts Happen then Bitcoin dominance tops the Problem is that after Bitcoin dominance Tops that doesn't mean that altcoins Start to just go up they they then if You if you were to Overlay total three Onto this Chart after rate Cuts arrive total three Can still go down because Bitcoin goes Down Right so yes dominance might be going Down but bitcoin's going down therefore Altcoins are going down so you reach a Point where like altcoins can bottom Against Bitcoin collectively but just Because they Bott them against Bitcoin Doesn't mean that they're not going to To go any lower on their USD pairs so That's the issue and that's why it's Such a hard Market cycle is because Things are bottoming against other Ratios all the time right all the Time

So let's take a look at a few Examples let's take a look at a few Examples so ether Bitcoin every single If you guys have been watching these Bitcoin Dominus videos for the last two Years there's there shouldn't be a Single one of you that is not glued to This chart at least on a weekly basis Right this Chart honestly might be one of the most Important charts in cryptocurrency to Watch ether Bitcoin why is that is it because you Know you think I'm a maxi because I'm Not you can call me a maxi doesn't make Doesn't make me One Ethereum is a blue chip it's a blue chip Right and if you're a Bitcoin Maxi and You don't like the fact that I'm saying That too bad I don't really care right Ethereum is a blue chip just like Bitcoin that is my View But ethereum has been bleeding against Bitcoin for a long Time and the Problem is that just like Bitcoin Dominance everyone has been calling on This ratio to bottom for the last two Years how many people have been bearish On it like I've been posting bearish Content on ether Bitcoin for two years Most people have not they just keep

Saying oh it's bottom tier or it's Bottom tier or it's bottom tier right They just keep saying oh well it's Holding up well right it's holding up Well and it just keeps going Down so I'm not saying it can't Bounce that's what it does a lot of Times in fact a lot of times I make a Video at some point in the next few days Or few weeks there's a bounce and Everyone's like oh well you know it's It's bounced therefore the theory is Wrong and you just wait another few Months and it just rolls over to a new Low Right so yes there's a lot of people That that keep calling the bottom on Ether Bitcoin but they were never Bearish on it they were calling for the Fliping at the merge they're calling for It to flip Bitcoin at the merge which by The way marked the top not even the the Cycle top but it marked the you know the Lower High this is an important Chart why is that it's because the ether Bitcoin valuation marked a very Important Milestone last cycle for ether USD And I'll show you what it Was this is ether Bitcoin at 049 last cycle or sorry in June of 2022 this looks oddly familiar to this

Right Here doesn't It looks really F looks really really Similar in fact I think a lot of people Haven't wanted to believe It you got a Peak you got a Peak then you got your lower high you Got your lower High in between your first high and your Lower high you get a capitulation Down just like That and then after the lower high you Spend a long time watching the ethereum Bitcoin valuation bleed all the way back Down if you were to look in December of 2017 when when the first Wick came on Ether Bitcoin to how long it took to Break below it 83 weeks 83 weeks from This low here to when ether Bitcoin Broke Down where are we now if we look at this Wick we're about to start week 82 week 82 who cares you might say so what so What if ether break bre down so what if It breaks down in it's Bitcoin pair why Does that matter why does it Matter it all goes back to this idea That Bitcoin rallies and Bitcoin Dominance uptrends they they serve a Purpose they break all Bitcoin pairs Down so that when Bitcoin rolls over and It goes lower on its USD pair which most

People can't imagine happening right now Because we haven't had a large Correction in a long time for Bitcoin then that that altcoin has Nowhere to hide if you were to look at At at days since a certain percentage Decline for Bitcoin the last time we had A 30% drop was 418 days ago or sorry 424 Days ago the highest it's ever gone is 430 I'm not saying it can't go longer But it just goes to show why people Think it can never correct 30% again It's be it's been over a year since Bitcoin had a 30% correction over a year There was not a single 30% Cor Direction In 2023 so Bitcoin rallies break all Bitcoin pairs down so that when Bitcoin USD rolls over the altcoin has nowhere To Hide a fascinating chart to look at is To Overlay ethusd with eth Bitcoin and You know this chart Is I don't know why I deleted that it's Very interesting because when you look At what ethusd did last cycle It was also putting in higher Lows it broke up and then it broke down What marked the top for ether what Marked the top right Here right There ether USD Topped when e Bitcoin broke Down ethusd topped when eth Bitcoin

Finally Broke and when it broke ethusd then Turned it down for several months Right now look look Today you see the same a very very Similar thing right ethusd has been Putting in higher Lows and arguably it's it's doing a very Similar thing although it's not as Volatile as it was over here right so You could argue that we we we sort of Just were slightly above that level just Like we were over here which also by the Way occurred right before ether Bitcoin Broke down so then ether Bitcoin broke Down Ethusd had its final Move everyone was euphoric as Bitcoin Soared to what Level to 14K Bitcoin sword to 14K which by the Way 14k was an interesting level why is That because well if you look at the FIB Retracement 14 sorry 14k was just above the 618 just above It so where would that be today so it Depends on what Peak you take if you Take the first Peak the 618 is at 48 a little over 48,000 about 48.5k or so Counterpoint if you take if you take This from the first

Peak we already hit the 618 so it kind of depends on on you know Which one you're measuring it From but again I mean this is what Happened last cycle I'm not here to say That it has to has to play out the same Way but I mean you know there there have Been some elements that have right like Ether bit Point has fallen down and Every step of the way that it's fallen Down people just keep saying it's Holding up well the problem is that once It breaks once it finally breaks what if That marks the top on Ethusd and then ethusd starts to fall Now what you'll see last time is that Once ether Bitcoin broke down it Bottomed about two months later two Months later where would that put it now Well it would mean if it were to play Out in the same way let's say it bottom Let's say it breaks down you know within The next couple of weeks or so if it Were to break down in the next couple of Weeks then two months after that puts You in about March Potentially for for a bottom on eth Bitcoin I don't know if that's going I Mean we're going to have to play it play It by ear I mean I don't know how it's Going to play out but that's what it Would look like if it emulated the last Cycle what's

Interesting what's interesting about March why is March fascinating is it Fascinating because it's two months After it would have broken down last Cycle maybe it's fascinating because That is in fact coincidentally where the Market thinks the fed's going to start Cutting rates what did we say Before all Bitcoin pairs collectively Bottom after the FED Cuts rates that Means eth Bitcoin that means Bitcoin Dominance tops after the FED Cuts maybe Just after eth Bitcoin bottoms just After the FED Cuts or around that time and what Happens if eth Bitcoin If the Fed is Cutting in March of 2020 or sorry of 2024 if the fed's cutting in March of 2024 then maybe that means that eth Bitcoin is in the is is finally entering That bottoming process just like it did Over here so perhaps that's what we need To look at on The Ether Bitcoin pair Over the next few months is if it were To break down here does it go down into This range this 003 to 04 range which I've been saying forever and then from There try to try to start to to work its Way back up a fascinating way to look at Eth Bitcoin is not to just look at at The the higher lows that everyone loves To point out you know everyone always Says well you have this low and you have This low and you have this low so why

Can't it be a higher low it probably Will be a higher low I'm not calling for A lower low on eth bitcoin I'm not that That would be surprising to me if eth Bitcoin took out this low down here that Would be very very bearish and that is Not what I'm calling for at All A lot of people love to point out the Higher Lows not a lot of people like to point Out the lower highs if ether Bitcoin is Is if the ether Bitcoin valuation is so Bullish why has it not put in a new high Since 2017 you know I mean I don't know About you guys but it's been seven years Right at what point I mean if a decade Goes by and it hasn't put on a new high Are we just going to keep saying well Just you guys wait it's going to Eventually a decade a long time you know Like my kid would have gone you know Goes from basically being zero to 10 Years old think about that like think About a kid going from zero to 10 years Old that's the amount of time it could Be before people start to finally think Like oh what happens if the trend has Changed but the point that I'm trying to Make is that both views are relevant It's relevant to say look these are Lower highs it's also relevant to say Well it's also higher lows as well Perhaps the way to look at it is to say

That what if it's on some type of Logarithmic regression Curve like This where it's it's sort of slowly Going to whatever the fair value is you Know maybe the fair value of ether Bitcoin is is going to be found Somewhere in here as it goes ASM Totically to that valuation but in the Meantime perhaps it has to drop back Down to this level and and make sure There are buyers there that make sure That there's people willing to take the To take the risk on eth over Bitcoin everyone keeps telling me that They that you make more money with Ethereum than Bitcoin yeah When yeah when the FED goes back to Lower rates maybe and they go back to QE Maybe but e Bitcoin is down 30% since here maybe even a little bit More 40 sorry excuse me 43% down People who have been in Bitcoin the last Couple of years are up a lot more than The people that were in Eth right a lot More 42% Down since the merge since when everyone Was calling for the Flipping it's down 40% so I mean you know I I look at the Chart and I say I don't I don't I don't It's not like I'm saying it has to break

Down but what if it does and there's Just there's a lot of people that don't Have a plan if it does they they Basically just say well it's going to Stop here and it's not going to go back Up what if it does get a bounce right I Mean it could it's always possible it Gets a bounce I would if it does I would Look towards the bull market support Band first that's currently at around 0056 so if it bounces here that's what You look at look at the 20-month moving Average on eth bitcoin this is an Interesting moving average because this Is the moving average from when it broke Down last time it was an The Ether Bitcoin valuation was basically in a Downtrend after this Broke it did not break back above the 20 Month until 24 months later two years Later this broke down here it's only Been a year it could be 12 more months Before E Bitcoin breaks back above its 20 above the 20-month moving Average the 20-month moving average is At 06474 right Now So again that's what I'm looking at and I'm I'm saying look guys if ether Bitcoin breaks down where does Bitcoin Dominance go you know where does it go It goes up if ether Bitcoin breaks down Bitcoin dominance more than likely goes Up and it looks like it it potentially

Could be in the process of breaking down Could it grinded out a little bit longer Sure right and if Bitcoin if if eth Bitcoin coin gets to bounce in the next Week I'm sure Twitter will will have a Field day with it they've had a field Day with it for the last two years and Every time they dunk on the view of eth Bitcoin going down every time they dunk On It they then disappear when it fades and Puts in a lower low only to come back on The next Bounce and Bitcoin dominance just keeps Going Higher and what once Was seen as low on bitcoin dominance When it had a massive pull back to 43% then it was seen as low when it had A pullback to 47 then a massive pullback To 49 and then now most recently down Back to 50 to 51 but it just keeps on going up and It's probably going to keep on going up Until we get back to lucier monetary Policy take a look at Ada Bitcoin look At this chart this is an interesting Chart really I I think it's fascinating Honestly because it's almost identical In fact almost Identical you can see the same exact Pattern is potentially playing out where You get a low and then you get a lower Low and I'm going to Overlay us interest

Rates onto this chart because again it Tells a fairly compelling story so you Get a low on Ada Bitcoin you even get a lower low you Then pop back up to your last Terra this was in April of 2019 three months before rate Cuts Arrived three months where did this you Get a your low and then a lower low and Then it popped up where did it top in December three months before rate Cuts Arrived last cycle what's three months After December January February March January February March rate Cuts rate Cuts eight of Bitcoin broke Down so if it were to play out the same Way the expectation would be that 8 a Bitcoin sort of falls back in you know Down to 800 to 900 STS and then people Hope that it holds maybe the call for an Inverse Head and Shoulders or some you Know something like that I don't know But that what happens if it just breaks Like it did last cycle now last cycle When Ada Bitcoin broke it broke on a Bitcoin USD rally right you can see Right here this was the low on adaa Bitcoin it broke down on a Bitcoin Rally is the same thing going to happen Right is Ada Bitcoin going to break down On a Bitcoin rally just like it did last Cycle right before the First Rate cut Arrived it's

Possible it's certainly possible that it You know that that that there's all look The Narrative is there right you have The spot ETF uh there's the having right In April the narrative is there that you Know for for for a why it could break Down and you still have tight monetary Policy we have not gone back to looser Monetary policy just yet so what if Everyone who celebrates that this is the Bottom on Ada of Bitcoin just like they Did over here What if they've celebrated prematurely And they got excited about the same type Of move that occurred last cycle at Nearly the same Valuation and at nearly the same lead Time before the First Rate Cut now I know what you're thinking You're saying well why don't you talk About alt coins that have outperformed Bitcoin look adaa Bitcoin has Outperformed over the last few months Months right so like if you traded you Know if you traded into Ada at 800 SATs And it went up to, 1600 SATs that's a 2X Move right congrats if you made money on That but guess what this was a nice move Over here too and this one was another Nice move and you know this was another Nice move had no shortage of good moves By the Ada to bitcoin valuation but they Still have resulted in the downtrend Ultimately continuing given enough time

Avac Bitcoin is a great example of Another coin that has done really really Well this you know the last couple of Months right it went Up almost 300% and that's great and Honestly I hope it survives I really do I hope I hope I hope Avalanche I hope Card I mean I hope these these these These altcoins survive long term I have Nothing against Them the problem is that a lot of the Ones that are outperforming this year Did not outperformed last year and the Ones that outperformed last year are Doing mostly nothing this year avac did Not do much of anything last last Year this year got a 300% rally but look At madic Bitcoin madic Bitcoin what has It done this year basically nothing but Last year in 2022 it got its 300% rally Right so you can see the altcoins that Are generally getting two to 300% Rallies this year against Bitcoin or at Least the last couple of months differ From a lot of the ones that rallied last Year so collectively we've seen money go From this altcoin to that altcoin and And yeah like madic USD has not done Really that great it's not been keeping Up Right Ada Ada USD had a nice move Here but so what it didn't do anything Last year a lot of the coins that made Moves last year aren't doing a damn

Thing this Year but what is this what did go up Last year what what did go up last year And this year or sorry 2022 and 20 late 2022 through all of 2023 Bitcoin Dominance Through all throughout all of it Dominance just keeps on going up just Keeps on slowly going higher despite People calling the Top now a really fascinating chart is to Look at this one this is total three Minus usdt divided by Bitcoin look at the move you remember The move we just showed on Ada to Bitcoin is this not the same move that We're seeing right here on total 3 minus Usdt Bitcoin look at this a low around 41% a rally up to just above 50% same thing right what if it's the Same thing what if all Bitcoin pairs are Breaking down as rate Cuts Arrive here's the fascinating way to Think about rate Cuts don't think about Rate Cuts as the reason why your altcoin Bottoms against the US dollar because It's likely you know rate Cuts often Mean risk assets go down Especially if it's a recession if it's Not a recession then it could be Different right or I mean last cycle in 2019 it's not like we had a recession That didn't arrive until 2020 with a Pandemic right but think about rate Cuts

As not telling you if assets have bottom Against the US dollar think about them Telling you if the asset is now Bottoming against a lower risk asset Within the same asset class rate Cuts Show you when the altcoin bottoms Against Bitcoin Altcoins bottom against Bitcoin after Rate Cuts arrive not before that's what History Shows so when rate Cuts arrive I'm not Going to be on the lookout for alt USD Valuations I'm going to be look out on The lookout for all Bitcoin valuations Because that is where they tend to Bottom is shortly after rate Cuts arrive Now look at This all all Bitcoin pairs Collapsed into the first few rate Cuts what if the same thing is happening Here you know what if the same thing is Happening if you pull up the bull market Support band for this chart it's from 45 To 46% we're currently at 44% let's see Where the weekly close comes In right you'll see where the weekly Close comes in look at total 2 minus Usdt divide by Bitcoin it's the same Chart right it's the same thing it just Includes Ethereum and you can see that it also Had a nice move but it did too last Cycle right look at this last cycle this Metric had a nice move and topped out

Three months before rate Cuts arrived Where is this top this is in December January February March 2024 what if it what if it just Collapses like it did last time look At right here April 2019 Until September it took 19 weeks to find The Low now remember even though it did That's not where all Bitcoin pairs Bottomed they still had a couple of you Know another few weeks Before they they finally threw in the Towel they didn't throw in the towel Until Bitcoin did and again you still The spot ETF hype right you still need To break ether Bitcoin off support that Hasn't happened yet so yes if Bitcoin Were to Rally into the spot ETF it could lift up ethereum it could Lift up cardano or Avalanche or poka it Could lift those up on their USD Valuations but there's a good chance They're bleeding on their Bitcoin Valuations and then as they finally stop The bleeding against Bitcoin the only Reason they stop is because then Bitcoin Is dropping and because those altcoins Have already been bled dry for so long They're going to drop with Bitcoin if Bitcoin drops but they don't tend to Drop too much more than Bitcoin does if They're not going to be a relic from a

Prior Cycle a lot of people have told me that Instead of looking at total three I Should look at others others let's look At others divided by Bitcoin this is Another great way to look at the market This is not you know this is only Looking at I I think outside of the top 10 look at others divided by Bitcoin has it had a nice Rally yeah it Has also had a nice rally over here when Did others divide by Bitcoin top April 2019 three months before rate Cuts Arrived three months before rate Cuts Arrived when did it potentially top here December 3 months later January February Uary March where could things throw a Wrench in this well what happens if the First Rate cut doesn't come till May you Know maybe you know there's always a Chance that ether Bitcoin gets a bounce In the short term and and we know we we Have to wait another month or two and Then maybe Bitcoin finally breaks it off Support in March before the having um And and then we take it from there you You need to think about other scenarios Because I mean that's one potential Scenario where ether Bitcoin doesn't Break down in the short term and it Still has a few more weeks before it Does of course the more bullish view is That it it doesn't break down and you

Know I I I understand why people think That it might not um I I suppose that You know the main arguments of course Are well it's it's deflationary and the Tokenomics are different guys I mean It's been like that since the merge and E Bitcoin has just bled the entire time Right so I don't know if we should put a Lot of weight into that the other thing To remember think about it like this Like look at look at the look at the Channel look at this channel right Here okay so Connect I don't know connect these highs To the Lows extend it Out what do you see tell you what I see What I See I see this I see A peak and a peak there and another Peak Right there and one that came pretty Close right There I see a move down to this level Here not to the bottom of the Tren not To the bottom of the channel but to Somewhere in between and then a rally Back up to the midpoint just over around That Midpoint and after it reached that Midpoint around three months before rate Cuts arrived That's when it collaps to the bottom of The Channel right here and then we tag that

Again right here what if others divided By Bitcoin is around this area right Here where the next move is for it to go To the bottom of the Channel again that doesn't mean their USD valuations have to immediately Collapse if Bitcoin goes up if Bitcoin Goes up it'll take altcoins with it If Bitcoin goes down it'll take all Coins with It the point is that if you believe in The dominance theory is that it doesn't Matter the way Bitcoin goes dominance is Going to go up either way so if you want Exposure to the cryptoverse Bitcoin Gives you that exposure it gives you Exposure to the potential upside in case We stay risk on but it also minimizes Your downside risk in case we roll over Into a bare Market or a recession or Anything like That I think this is the important way Way to look I think it's an important Way to look at the market I get a lot of People don't like it and imagine imagine If Bitcoin were to you know to to hold Altcoins up for another couple of months I mean people are not going to believe That that it you know that that they Could go lower on their Bitcoin Pairs And look Guys I could eat these words it's Possible that I'm wrong like it really Is I I get I get a ton of things wrong I

Feel very convicted about this position Because it has been playing out I could Be wrong and just because I was right About Bitcoin dominant Over the last year year and a half two Years whatever doesn't mean I'm going to Keep being right about it right there's Going to come a time where dominance is Going to top out and and some people Believe that already happened and they Could be Right these are just my views right These are just My Views one Counterpoint To dominance topping out is that often Times if you look at having years 2016 And 2020 dominance doesn't tend to go That much higher this is dominance Without stable coins look at 2024 though It's already shooting up So is this time different is Bitcoin Dominance more dependent on monetary Monetary policy than it is just where we Are in in a potential cycle well so far You can see the last two cycles when the When the Year got started dominance Barely went up and then it just Collapsed now it's moving up pretty Strong in a in a pretty strong Way remember eth Bitcoin normally goes Down in the second half of the bare Market Market year 2022 but it didn't This time potentially because of the Merge normally eth Bitcoin does well in January perhaps it's not this time

Because of the spot ETF Narrative look at eth Bitcoin monthly Returns it's currently down in January just like it went up in late 2022 when it normally doesn't you can See 2018 was mostly red 2022 there was Decent number of decent amount of green Months in There perhaps now it's paying the price For that as now instead of the the the Merge narrative you have all these Bitcoin narratives think about it There's been no shortage of Bitcoin Narratives you've had everything this This past year and you know it's sort of Reaching a crescendo with the spot ETF And the having what if Bitcoin dominance Tops out in the first half you know know In I mean maybe it tops out later on but What happens if it tops out in the first Half of the year and it just does so After all these narratives are like you Know everyone just flocks to bitcoin There's spot ETF there's having there's All these institutions there's countries And then just when it seems like Altcoins can never go up against Bitcoin Again that's where they bought them but They bought them not because of the Narratives but because the FED is Finally going back to looser monetary Policy So those are my views on the market and They're not popular they're really not

And I've definitely lost a lot of sleep You know dealing with with a lot of People that that are very strongly Against these views but I have to go Back to the chart and say Look it has not been wrong to be bullish On bitcoin dominance it has not been Wrong it has been going up for a long Time if you don't if you if you don't Think that it's been going up long Enough because you say Well it bottomed Here in September 2022 if you exclude Stable coins it's been going up since May of 2021 that might come to New as news to Some People but since May of 2021 excluding Stables dominance has been going Up this was a pretty big drop right Here it's moved back up it's mostly Wiped away that loss we'll see what it Does over the next couple of weeks Especially going into this spot ETF and Over the next few months going into the Having does it finally break ether Bitcoin down and if it breaks ether Bitcoin down does that correspond to a Local high for ether USD just like it Did last cycle by the way remember guys It didn't just Mark the top for eusd Last cycle when ether Bitcoin broke down Last cycle it also marked the local top For Bitcoin you

See ether us ether Bitcoin broke below This Wick right Here right so you see this going all the Way across that right there right where It broke down that's where Bitcoin USD Went in sort of that final topping Process so I can maybe let me pull it up On on this Chart that one's not seem like it's Loading So let me just pull up ether Bitcoin right Here right There when ether Bitcoin broke Down it Marked the local high for Bitcoin Ethereum is King of the altcoins Basically so when it breaks when it Breaks if it does if ether Bitcoin Breaks then that could be the green Light to tell Bitcoin that if it wants To drop against the US Dollar it can Crush Ethereum because ethereum will have Nowhere to hide if it goes below 0.049 I think we'll go ahead and wrap it Up there those are my views on bitcoin Dominance I know it's been a a pretty Long journey for those who have been Following the dominance view I know it's Been stressful but it hasn't been wrong Dominance keeps on going up and there Could be you know there could be another

Move or two in it to to to invalidate it If if ether Bitcoin doesn't break down this quarter Like if it if it just doesn't break down Then perhaps there you know you could Come up with reasons why it's different But so far seems like it's playing out In a similar manner all Bitcoin pairs Getting pretty iffy just as rate Cuts Arrive and and I I just know from the Last cycle it was not not fun when that Happened where all those altcoins Finally broke down on their Bitcoin Pairs and and then we truly found you Know the extent to which they had to go Before they found you know ultimately Found their bottom if ether Bitcoin Breaks I would be looking towards that 003 to 004 range uh for a potential Low um and that's that's I think that's Mostly what I will be sort of focusing On you know if it if it were to break Down is is to try to Nail the low or at least get close to it On the on the ether Bitcoin pair but in The meantime let's see if let's see if Bitcoin dominance can take out this High Because there's a lot of people that are Putting a lot of confidence in this Being the top for dominance and I'm just Wanting to know like well what happens If it's not you know and by the way There's also one more way to look at the Market and that's the Blue Chip

Dominance Bitcoin dominance plus Ethereum dominance look at this just Before rate Cuts arrived eth Bitcoin Dominance plus eth dominance went all The way up to 73% and then collapsed to To 67 same exact thing just happened it Went up to 73 collapsed down to 67 and Now it's starting to go back up and Again overlaying interest rates onto the Same chart you can see that ether Dominance plus bit Bitcoin dominance did Not top until after rate Cuts Arrived so that's where I S on the Market I think I I think that that the Bitcoin dominance is still very much Bullish until proven otherwise and it Hasn't been proven otherwise just J Thank you guys for tuning in if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe Give the video a thumbs up and again I We do have the sale on into the crypts Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom I'll see you guys next time Bye


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