Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin more specifically we're Going to do another video on bitcoin Dominance if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on intothe cryptoverse premium At intothe cryptoverse decom links in The description below we still have that Code that you can use Cyber Monday and You can get 50% off your first month if You want to just enter the code at Checkout Let's go ahead and jump in now before we Get too far into the dominance videos I I want to remind people why we talk About them and also talk about how over The next few months the the dominance Rally could start to slow down now I'm Of the opinion and again I could be Wrong right I'm of the opinion that Dominance has not yet topped okay I Think it will go higher I've said that All year long um you know there's been a Lot of a lot of people that that have Called the top on bitcoin dominance all Year but it hasn't yet necessarily Topped it's always possible that that This most recent high is the top but I Still think there's one more move by Bitcoin dominance probably before the End of the year and if not then by you

Know by by January the reason we talk about Dominance is not you know because one of The questions I get is well how do you Make money on dominance you know it's Not like you're going to go out there And buy Bitcoin dominance right but how Do you you know why do we talk about it The reason why you know I talk about Bitcoin dominance as much as I do even Though again I know it's not a popular View to have it's not a popular video to Have anytime I put out these videos I Get a lot of flack on on Twitter but the Reason why I talk about it is because in In such an uncertain world you know Where it seems like the macro RIS risks Are piling up seems like the Unemployment rate is slowly trending Higher you know in a world such as this One and as investors right you want to Get exposure to assets that you like Right you know it's hard for people to Just sit on their hands forever and so What I've said for the entire year is That a Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio Will likely outperform an altcoin heavy Crypto portfolio Now in order to understand that we first Must say hey there's always some Altcoins that outperform Bitcoin always And I said that coming into this year I Said guys look my view is that Bitcoin Dominance is going to go up all year

Long there's going to be some altcoins That outperform Bitcoin right there Always are that doesn't detract from the Bitcoin dominance theory if you have Made money on some of the altcoins that Have outperformed Bitcoin Congratulations right congrats on the Gains I'm not trying to to minimize that My goal was to say collectively altcoins Would underperform Bitcoin in the preh Having year not all altcoins would one Form of common criticism criticism that I see is that I'm cherry-picking the Altcoins that have underperformed Bitcoin but considering that dominance Has gone from you know 39% all the way Up to about 53% I think it would be more Fair to say that we would have to Cherry-pick altcoins that did outperform Bitcoin right there's there's more Altcoins that have Underperformed then have Outperformed okay because so many of Them have just slowly dwindled now a lot Of them are up recently in the last few Weeks but they are still down Collectively against Bitcoin throughout The prehab year and so the argument has Been that if you want exposure to crypto Which I mean again if you're watching This channel I imagine most of you are Crypto enthusiasts right if you want Exposure to crypto then Bitcoin is where You want to be in the prehab year the

Reason for that is it gives you exposure To the upside while minimizing your Downside risk in the altcoin market Right that's the whole point is that no Matter the direction of Bitcoin USD the Dominance should go up either way right Whether Bitcoin goes up Or down or even if it just goes sideways For a while right the idea over the Long Haul in prehab years is that Bitcoin Dominance should go up either way and so By having a Bitcoin heavy portfolio you Are essentially trying to maximize your Risk adjusted returns again it doesn't Mean that some altcoins are not going to Outperform bitcoin many are many have Many could continue to do so it just Means that Bitcoin has led the market market right Bitcoin has you know for the risk that You're taking it has been much more Worthwhile than than most but not all Altcoins and we sit here today with Dominance at 53% we started the year at around 41% or So maybe 41 to 42% we've come a long way There are not many metrics in the Cryptoverse where that metric has not Had a weekly close below the 20we SMA The bull Mark sport band for the entire Year or the 21 week for the entire year We've had a single Wick all year that Went below the bull market support band A single Wick and it occurred in January

And early January at that the week of January 9th ever since then we have not Had a single move below the bullmark Sport pen and not a single weekly close At all all year below the bull market Support band So for most altcoins for Those who converted their altcoins to Bitcoin in early 2022 when I said that Altcoins were too much risk relative to Bitcoin most of those altcoins have gone Down against Bitcoin even if you waited Until 2023 to make the trade most of those alt Coins are down against Bitcoin right so Had you done it in early 2022 or early 2023 most but not all altcoins have bled Against Bitcoin and it's one of the Reasons why the dominance has gone Higher all year long now I know what You're probably thinking you're probably Thinking well Ben you know at the Beginning of 2022 dominance was at at 39% but we went Below that dominance level in Q3 of 2022 So how can you say that it was right to Convert alts to bitcoin back then well Again guys this includes stable coins And we can go look really quickly here Let me just go pull it up we can track We can get an approximation here for the Stablecoin market you can see that the Top for Bitcoin occurred in November but From that level the stable coin market Cap increased from 128 billion to 161

Billion throughout you know for the First half of 2022 late 2021 and the First half of 2022 so one of the main Reasons that dominance did not do as Well on especially when you're looking At it on trading view in 2022 is because The stablecoin market cap was going up And the stablecoin market cap is a Component of the overall market cap but If you go over and we exclude stable Coins from the calculation and just look At this since May of 2021 Bitcoin Dominance excluding stable coins has Never stopped putting in higher lows and This was something that you know I mean I can't tell mean tell you how many Times like people you know look you know They looked at these views on bitcoin Dominance and said no way right altcoins Are going to take over dominance is Going to 20 or 30% right this was a Common view that many people had a year Ago if you remember back to to sort of Late 2022 there were a lot of people Calling for 30% Dominance that Bitcoin you know was no Longer King and and it would slowly fade As as other things like ethereum flip it And all that sort of stuff but we faded That narrative right we said no ether Bitcoin is likely putting in a double Top just like Bitcoin USD did in 2021 And the dominance should go up and again Excluding stable coins dominance has

Never stopped putting in higher lows Since May of 2021 now guys I'm not under the Assumption that dominance is going to go Up forever I know that it won't right I Know that it won't my view has never Been that dominance is going to go back Up to you know astronomically high Levels right I set a target of 60% right and I don't know if we're Going to make it there I mean I honestly Don't know I can find comp in reasons to Think that we that we will you could Look at at you know these fib Retracements and and look at where Dominance topped last cycle in the Prehab year you can see that it topped Right here let me extend this over at The 618 the 618 this cycle for Bitcoin Dominance would put you at around 60% so Again my view is that dominance is Trending in that direction trending Towards 60% plus or minus a couple Percent right I don't know exactly you Know where it's going to go but my view Remains that it will likely continue to Trend higher despite everyone calling For the top on this thing for the entire Year Okay So Bitcoin gives crypto Enthusiast right It gives these people exposure to the Upside if you believe in the future of Crypto right it gives do that exposure

You say Hey you know I like this altcoin But unfortunately I think that altcoin Is going to bleed to bitcoin right it's Nothing against the altcoin it's just to Say guys look I mean it's tighter Monetary policy and and and when that Happens highrisk tends to bleed to low Risk right so high-risk alts tend to Bleed to lowrisk things there's always a Few that outperform always a Few cherry-picking a few examples does Not not negate the dominance rally that We've seen it does not and you mean you Know we can go down that that that Rabbit hole we can we can argue that all All we want but the dominance has gone From 41% to 53% and the year's not even Over okay so I can't help but think that This view continues to be correct and my Thinking is we'll continue to be correct Until we go to looser monetary policy Because last cycle we know that Dominance did not top until just before We went to looser monetary Policy and you can see that pretty Clearly if you overlay interest rates Onto this chart it was after the FED Started to cut rates that Bitcoin Dominance topped out Bitcoin USD went Higher and topped out just before rate Cuts right so dominance topped out the Last month before the feds before the FED cut so the FED cut in July do

Bitcoin USD topped in June Bitcoin Dominance topped in September so what Was it Bitcoin USD Tops then the FED Cuts then Bitcoin dominance Tops so again number one this is just What happened last cycle I can't promise As if it's going to happen this cycle or Not but this is just what we saw last Cycle it's first Bitcoin tops Then the FED Cuts then Bitcoin dominance Tops that is what happened last cycle Bitcoin USD hits its high the FED starts to Cut dominance tops Does the FED care about Bitcoin no right Fed doesn't care about Bitcoin but the FED cares about the economy and Fundamentally I think most of us here Whether you're bullish or bearish or Most of us are are long-term bullish on On the Crypt Right and so there's this steady flow of Of people DCA and and you know they just continue To do that as no matter what right And so over the long Haul you know assets like Bitcoin should Trend higher right they should Trend Higher especially as the FED just keeps Printing more money okay we should we Should see that Happen but the sort of the Counterpoint

Is that while that is true it doesn't Mean that macro uncertainty can't weigh In at certain points in the cycle just Like it did over here before the FED Started to cut So think about it like stocks right The Magnificent Seven you know you have all These major companies that have been Outperforming the rest of the index Right I mean Apple Microsoft Google Nvidia Tesla which Tesla has been a Little bit weaker recently relative to The to the others but all of them have Been doing very very well this Year the funds are flowing from like the The higher risk stocks to the lower risk Stocks why is that why why why would That be well it's because during a Higher interest rate environment during A period of QT and and where the money Supply is going down there's a risk that Companies will go bankrupt think about In crypto think about how many companies Have gone bankrupt think about even in In equities or not even equities just Think about companies like small Businesses think about how many have Gone bankrupt over the last couple of Years and so what investors do is they Flee these higher risk things for the Lower risk things because they don't Know if those companies Will Survive you Know they say guys like even if we get a Recession it's not like Apple's going

Anywhere right like apple is still going To be selling you iPhones and iPads and You know all this stuff right they're Still going to be selling this to you Next year and the year after and the Year after regardless of we get Regardless of whether we get a recession Or not right m rosoft isn't going Anywhere Google they're they're not Going anywhere anytime soon so what Happens is that people they take their Money from these things that they don't Know if they're going to survive right Like these lower market cap companies Like I don't know if that thing's going To survive but these other companies Like apple and Microsoft and Google Etc Nvidia they can probably survive Because why because they have the Balance sheet to do so they can survive They can survive tough times You know even if we were to go into a Deep Recession they could survive that more Than Likely but the higher risk stuff can't Necessarily survive it and that's the Issue right you just don't know which Ones are going to survive and so the Behavior by investors is to flee the Stuff that they're not that confident in Over the Long Haul and to go towards the Stuff that they're more confident With stocks it's your Magnificent Seven

With crypto it's Bitcoin does that mean That that no stocks outside of the Magnificent 7 have done well no plenty Of them have plenty of them have does That mean that no altcoins have done Well of course some of them Have but most of them have bled back to Bitcoin so the way the cycle went last Time was you know you you get the rate Hiking cycle do or Bitcoin USD tops then Fed Cuts then Bitcoin dominance tops so The dominance should still go up even When Bitcoin does eventually turn the Corner wherever that is right whether It's now whether Bitcoin breaks out to 40K 42k 46k 48k wherever it goes Bitcoin Dominance should continue to go Higher not a popular View and I had you Know Many I had a lot of time to think about About these dominance videos and I sort Of think if if they've been helpful to People and I'd like to think that they Have but I also know that some people You they always feel shafted if if they Stayed Bitcoin heavy and they missed out On some altcoin that went up you know 10x or something this year or even more Right it's easy to feel like oh man if I Had just bought that altcoin I would Have been better off than buying Bitcoin The counter point of course is that it's Survivorship bias there's no way to know Which ones would have done that now some

People who have those altcoins are well Of course we knew but again you know for Everyone that outperformed Bitcoin there Was like probably a hundred that did it Right and so what I do is I don't beat Myself up for not knowing which altcoins Are going to outperform Bitcoin in the Prehab year I just say hey most of them Are are going to Underperform and I will stick with Bitcoin heavy Portfolio right I will stick with a Bitcoin heavy portfolio until we go back To looser monetary policy is my view now When is that right like because I don't I don't I certainly don't have the view That dominance is going to go up Forever the market is saying that cuts Are coming in in May I honestly don't know if we're if It's going to take that long it could But I I mean Cuts could also come Earlier I mean they could come in March For all we know maybe even January But this the market is always changing Its mind it's also possible we don't get Cuts next year but the market is is of Course constantly changing his mind as To as to when the cuts are actually Going to Come but Remember it's normally Bitcoin USD Tops fed Cuts Bitcoin dominance tops and It was the same thing with with the

Russell 2000 last cycle right where did the Russell bottom against the S&P after the last rate cut right here And if you overlay interest rates onto This chart you will again see that that Is where you know it was once we went Back to looser monetary policy that's When a lot of these higher risk Companies started to do Well this is one of the reasons why most Hedge funds just can't keep up with the S&P because a lot of times you know People say well like the S&P is only Being is only going higher because of Seven stocks well yeah but there's That's often the case that there's a few Stocks that are responsible for a Majority of the gains it's why hedge Funds have such a hard time beating the S&P 500 because most most things are Just bleeding back to the S&P because There's a few stocks on the S&P this Time the Magnificent 7 that are Basically carrying the whole index so The only way that that you know hedge Fund man not the only way but one of the Main ways that hedge fund managers would Have beaten the the index this year was To just go heavy into the Magnificent 7 Despite the fact that they've been Outperforming small caps for a long time And since a lot of a lot of hedge funds Didn't do that they've underperformed

The index but that's not like that that Happens a lot there's always a few Stocks that tend to be responsible for a Majority of the gains and that's why It's often better for most investors Just to buy the index rather than get to Um you know rather than get so focused On on individual stock picking in in Some of the micro caps that doesn't mean You can't make money there but you have To spend a lot more time figuring out Like which ones are undervalued it's a Lot easier just to to buy the index Right and say hey I don't know which Ones are going to outperform but the S&P Is generally going to Trend higher Because there are going to be a few that Outperform so you know going back to the Dominance chart it's it's currently Sitting at 53% % why should we consider it to go higher Like why should we consider that it Could go higher from here because a lot Of people say it's topped and a lot of The people that I mean there's there First of all you have the there's some People that just say it it tops every Single time right there there's that View but there's some people that have Been bullish on dominance that are now Saying it's topped here and so people Are starting to slowly say you know what It's been a great rally but at some Point this thing's got to turn around

I'm not at that point yet I see tighter Monetary Policy I think I think dominance is Going Higher I think if Bitcoin were to keep Rallying how does the dominance not go Up right if Bitcoin keeps going up Here every single time that Bitcoin has Broken out every single time this year If you look at dominance overlaid on This chart every single time Dominance goes up when Bitcoin USD Breaks out so if you think that that Bitcoin USD is going to break to the Upside then how does dominance not go up Right I mean Bitcoin Can slowly Trend up like I mean it's Been slow it's been slowly trending up For the last few weeks dominance has Been slowly trending up if Bitcoin were To break out where does dominance go Right is it going to go down Is it going to go down if Bitcoin breaks Up probably not if Bitcoin breaks out to The upside then dominance will likely Soar with It but the Counterpoint is well what if Bitcoin breaks down right what if Bitcoin breaks down well then dominance Would still go up more than likely Because remember the thing that we Mentioned was that Bitcoin tops first Then the FED Cuts then dominance tops so what we've

Ially seen is dominance doesn't top Until after Bitcoin Does so if Bitcoin is topped then There's still no guarantee that Dominance has and if Bitcoin hasn't Topped then dominance is still a ways Off from topping you know at least a Couple of months a month or two last Cycle you know it was another month or Two and if you go look I mean if you go Look at at Bitcoin USD on on The Daily Time Frame let's go look at this I mean it's Been building up to something you know Whether it breaks out or not is is of Course your your gas it looks like it if It if it breaks to the upside here I Mean look at this dominance is already Starting to climb and if this thing Breaks up I don't see a I I just I don't See a scenario where dominance isn't Isn't also breaking Up to the upside you know I just it's Hard for me to Envision that scenario Remember one of the things that Bitcoin Rallies do in prehab years is they break All Bitcoin pairs Down ether Bitcoin is at 0.054 what would it take what would it Take for ether Bitcoin to go below this Wick here 0.049 what would it take Right would it take take a Bitcoin rally Would it take a Bitcoin dump a lot of These drops by Ether Bitcoin occurred on

Bitcoin rallies not Bitcoin dumps There's a one I think one of them was on A Bitcoin dump but a lot of these were On bitcoin rallies so if Bitcoin were to Break out then I think ether Bitcoin can Take out this Low can that happen right yes it Can will it happen place your bets right Place your Bets how high could Bitcoin go if it Breaks to the Upside well you know coming into this Year uh my view is that Bitcoin would Not go higher than 35k so I you know I I Could sit here and and try to pretend Like oh you know it's going to top out At this price or this or that price Whatever but I mean it's already Exceeded my expectations and in my own History with Bitcoin like I've Essentially learned that once it exceeds Your expectations It is foolish to try to shift the Goalpost and say actually it's going to Top out here because often times what Happens is it goes higher than we think And it goes lower than we think in 2019 I mean it went a lot higher than anyone Thought and then in March 2020 I went a Lot lower than anyone Thought So I look at I mean I look at at these Charts and I can come up with price Targets certainly I mean I I I could

Look at at at where it went last cycle Right I could say all right well you Know last cycle it went up to the 618 Right 618 before it topped Out this cycle the 618 from you know From 69k put you it at around 48 49k if you take April as the Top If you take April as at the Top right Here the 618s that are on 46k okay 46k now 46k is interesting Because that's that actually corresponds To two and a half log Lines Down from this High half One two right here is 46k 46k and what's fascinating about That is if you're not familiar like We've historically seen you know these Drops of Two and a Half log Lines each Time so you know if it breaks up if Bitcoin breaks up and goes into the 40s The mid-40s the high 40s then I I I Think that the high 40s would be a Significant level of resistance but that Doesn't mean it can't eventually break Above that but I I would say that how Does Bitcoin go to the high 40s without Dominance also putting in a new high how Does that happen because I for me I just I can't really see that scenario I'm not

Saying it doesn't exist because I've Previously been unable to see certain Scenarios that did play out but I would Say if Bitcoin breaks into the high 40s How does dominance not put in a new high And if dominance is putting in a new High how are all Bitcoin pairs not Putting in new Lows if you look at at total 3 minus Usct to by Bitcoin we''ve T talk we've Tracked this for for a while it's back Down to 43% so you can see that I mean it it it Essentially just got rejected over here By the bullmark sare pen all the way Down rallied up and it's just been Rejected again it you know it did Something similar over here right like Back in in 2019 it came up it got a Little bit above it but it still kept Getting rejected and eventually it broke Down now remember when it broke down When Bitcoin when alts broke down Against Bitcoin it was on a Bitcoin Rally like so when dominance when when When Bitcoin USD went to its yearly High When Bitcoin USD went to its yearly high In June That corresponded to all Bitcoin pairs Breaking below 43% okay so here it is at 43% now when Did Bitcoin top on this chart where was Total 3 minus usdt Bitcoin at that

Time it was around 38% around 38% so I I think what you Have to look for is if Bitcoin were to Rally you know above 40K and break all Bitcoin pairs down Down here right if they come down Here then you really have to wonder Right you really have to wonder how much More can they take and if Bitcoin were To then roll over from the high 40 the Mid-40s or the high 40s and alts are Down here are they more likely to Continue dropping or are they more Likely to go back up last cycle once Bitcoin found its yearly High alts Dropped against Bitcoin and then the Bitcoin dominance went up right so Bitcoin topped Then the FED cut then dominance Topped we could see something play out Again like that right Bitcoin tops fed Cuts dominance Tops if you Look at the year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin dominance without stable Coins you will in fact see that it's Outperforming 2015 and underperforming 2019 interesting right it's interesting Because it's outperforming 2015 but it's Underperforming 2019 and so then I look at this chart And I say Well why can't it go higher I mean in in

Both of these cases over here we saw Dominance sort of slowly Trend back up Into the end of the year December tends To be a time when Bitcoin is is a little Bit has CHS relative outperformance with Respect to the altcoin market on average So why shouldn't I assume that dominance Can't go up and if you look you know if You go look at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin in 2023 it's actually Above where it was in 2019 at this time And Below 2015 so you know while there's Part of me that that likes taking the Average of 2015 and 2019 and saying well it could at least Trend there which I think it very well Likely could what if it goes higher Right what if it goes all the way up to Where the 2019 trend line is this is Again as excluding stable Coins so you know how do you get like How do you get a scenario where ether Bitcoin breaks down right how do you get That Scenario when it just seems like ether USD keeps going up I think the way that It could happen is If Bitcoin dominance if Bitcoin USD were To break up quickly or if it broke down Quickly but I mean with the with Momentum going up we'll talk about the Up uh the up track first if Bitcoin USD Were you break

Up then that's where all Bitcoin pairs Break Down how high would it have to go well I Mean um I guess we can go try to take a Look at that if we let me pull something Up here so I'm going to To pull out okay so this is this is Wolf Ram Alpha so basically the argument is We need you we don't need anything right But if you if you believe that ether Bitcoin is going to break down it needs To go below 0.049 doesn't it right if you look at at Ether Bitcoin the low from June 2022 was 0498 049 908 so let's put in [Music] 0497 that would be a new low for ether Bitcoin so what would have to happen for It to get There what would have to happen well it Depends on the price of Bitcoin and the Price of Ethereum so what If Ethereum Were to go I mean the thing is is like If if Bitcoin goes up it's going to take Ethereum with it the hard part is just Knowing how far will ethereum run if Bitcoin also runs but let's suppose that Bitcoin went to we'll just we'll try a Few different numbers here let's first

Suppose Bitcoin went to say 46k which Was the logarithmic aggression thing Right so 46k x divided 46k so X is the valuation Of Eth so where would that put ethereum It would put it at 2257 2257 can eth make it to 2257 the funny Thing is 2257 by ethereum would be a new yearly High right it would be a new yearly high Again because these these prior highs Were at you know this one was at 235 This one was at like 2128 2,000 or 2257 would in fact be a new yearly high Now I know a lot of people are drawing This trend line on eth like this just Flat across the page or drawing it to This Wick over Here Right it seems reasonable right I mean Because if you look at last cycle the Yearly high for ethereum occurred at That point right like when it hit that Level that was when that yearly high was In and we're almost there we have not Even hit that level just yet right in Fact that level is 2160 and we've come Pretty close we haven't hit it but There's also an idea that this is a Wedge is another view and if you look at It like this we're going to switch this

Over to a regular scale I I don't really It doesn't really matter if you look at On a regular scale or log scale I mean I Can show you both ways but if you look At this on a regular scale Where does this trend line come in again Right so you have Um can I Yeah so you have this one Here at 2029 or so then you have that One at 2141 if it went to the trend line today Where would it Be 22 46 let's go all the way up to 2257 Right around there right right around There so the point is that if you had a Scenario where ether USD went back up to The top of you know to to where this Wedge is if it came back up to this Level how does it get there well it only Gets there in my opinion if bitcoin's Going Higher but what's funny is that if it Were to go Here and at the same time Bitcoin is is You know going into the into the 40s or Something High 40s ether Bitcoin could Still be putting in a new Low so it all depends on on how strong Ethereum is if ethereum were to take out This level and start to come up here Then then this wedge becomes invalidated And it's not it's not best for you as a

Wedge if you're not familiar with what I'm talking about I'm talking about sort Of like viewing it like This Where you basically have this pattern of Down you know and you know you keep Going back up to the top of the trend Line but the issue is that it's Occurring on on I think generally Speaking decreasing volume right um like There's less volume today I'm not really Sure I mean this is this uh this Exchange but um Yeah I mean like generally speaking each Of these and we've had some volume Recently don't get me wrong but like It's still we're spending a lot of the Time down here this last Peak we we did Go a little bit higher in volume and of Course way over here volume was was a Lot higher than it is today so right Like we've we've been hitting these Higher Highs but on on decreasing Volume So you know I think you have to look at This and say well if Bitcoin were to Break up and it broke up enough to put To make ether go to a new low a new you Know new cycle low below 0049 then that's where things get really Interesting if it also happens to Correspond to rate Cuts right because Normally risk assets sell off when you Get rate

Cuts now I know what some of you guys Are thinking you're probably why would The FED cut right no business Cutting Um if you look at inflation Year-over-year it's still relatively High I mean it's still 3.23% core Inflation is it 4% but it's moving Down so why would the FED cut with no Business cutting they told us hire for Longer I think they were talking about Bitcoin dominance but they told us Higher for longer but the problem Is that the labor market is starting to Show a little bit of weakness Right it is turning out right like look At a three-month moving average of the Unemployment rate like it's it's slowly Starting to to pick up the pace Here if you were to look at unemployment Reason by level or sorry unemployment Level by reason for Unemployment job losers is is starting To break to the upside right like look At a three-month moving average of that Right it's starting to break up Look at one of the one of the reasons Why the you know the unemployment level Is going higher is because of new Entrance to the labor force look at it It's going up pretty quickly look at the Year-over-year percentage change of This look at the year-over-year

Percentage change of permanent job Losers you see where it is today it's at 26.68% right I mean the only two times In history where we're tracking this Where we had that were these two Recessions over here so again I'm not Saying the S&P drop 50% like it did in In theom Crash or or the financial Crisis what I am saying is that you know There is reason for the for the FED to Pivot in 2024 there's reason for it to Because it's an election year and There's going to Be political pressure I think for them To Pivot and if they pivot if they pivot And we get rate Cuts well remember That's usually when dominance tops out Just after That dominance tops out after rate Cuts so we're getting close potentially To that you know to that Milestone but I I can't like I I just I Can't get on board with the dominance Rally being over yet I just can't as Much as I would like to as much as I Would just love to just jump on the Altcoin bandwagon with everyone and say You know hell with the macro you know Let's just go full D gen how do I look At this and not say that Bitcoin is Still the better place to be if Bitcoin Dominance is going to go Higher I have a Bitcoin position I've

Had one for a long time in late 2022 I said back then Bitcoin heavy Crypto portfolio it gives you exposure To the upside while minimizing your Downside risk in early 2022 I made video Saying I you know altcoins are too risky Against Bitcoin and by converting your Alts to to bitcoin it likely will work Out better there's other altcoins we can Look at um B&B Bitcoin has been a major Tailwind for Bitcoin dominance because B&B Bitcoin and BNB has a pretty large Market cap this thing is still moving Down it's still moving Down 0.606 it hasn't been this low since March of 2021 or April April of 2021 has Not been this low since April 2021 B&B Broke the Lows right I can't Ether maybe it can I I don't Know you have other allcoins you have Like eight a Bitcoin which is at a Thousand SATs and I think you know I think Everyone's already basically said well You know there's no way it's going to go Lower than that or below 800 and it Might not right like it might not But remember last Cycle where it Was just before we got to the First Rate Cuts it was right Here and it broke down on a

Bitcoin Rally but the rally only lasted a few Weeks right it only lasted a few Weeks if you again if you overlay Bitcoin USD onto this Chart where where was a to bitcoin when Bitcoin topped Out was right Here this line right Here so around 700 Sets so that could be a warning sign if Ada a Bitcoin were at 700 SATs could be Kind of a warning now why is that I mean You know And especially like the idea that that Bitcoin cares at all about what cardano Is doing or ethereum to to to a maxi is Just absolutely absurd right it has no Business caring about that but I think The reason is because if if the Purchasing power of these altcoins were The respect to bitcoin keeps going down Then then you know as people keep Converting those alts to bitcoin it just Has less and less of effect right just Less and less of an effect as time goes On and so yeah that's what you look for Again I I'm not saying it has to happen But if Ada a Bitcoin were to break down Below 800 STS it's kind of early familiar is it Not this low here and then this low Right here you get a bounce for a little Bit only for it to roll over on a

Bitcoin rally what if that happens like What if we go into December Bitcoin Breaks up into the 40s eight a Bitcoin Breaks down everyone then loses their Minds because Bitcoin you know is is is Going Parabolic and and then it it tops out Just before rate Cuts just like 2019 you know that could happen Too if you look at total 2 minus USD to A Bitcoin it's also going down right I Mean it keeps putting in lower lows this Includes eth don't tell me eth is strong If eth is strong why is why is total 3 Minus USD I mean total 3us USD Bitcoin At least held the this prior low from June so far I don't think it will hold Forever but it it held so far total 2 Minus USD Bitcoin put in a lower low and The only difference between between Total two and total three is that total Two includes eth so when you include Eth it's even Weaker in terms of the trend not I mean If total 2 minus USD Bitcoin were where Total three is then it would already be Down here but it's not so because it's Still up here shows you that ethereum Has been stronger than the altcoin Market but I don't you know we don't Care about what it has been we care About where it's Going right and total two minus usct Bitcoin topped out in late 2021 and

Every single move higher has been a Lower high whether you like it or not I Mean you know again it's not About what you know we necessarily want To Happen but when you look at ether Bitcoin people can say all they want to But I mean again even the merge rally Was a lower High you remember the end of 2022 Everyone's losing their minds about a Theum the flipping and all this stuff it Was still a lower High that then slowly faded every single Time putting in a new low you know a low A low a lower low a lower low a lower Low that's all it's been all year I mean That's literally all it's been all Year so many people have been bullish on Ether Bitcoin this Year but if you look at the H kanashi Monthly Candles it's basically been down only For ethereum's Bitcoin valuation for the Entire Year that doesn't mean it's not going to Bounce in fact maybe it puts in a lower Low and then people sell and then it Gets a bounce into the new year that Could Happen but this trend has not yet Changed and right now we're we're Looking at large candle bodies with no Overshadows and and and long Wicks to

The downside showing a fairly strong Trend right now that has not yet shown Any signs of reversing right and even if It does reverse it still doesn't mean You can't get something like that where It just reverses for a few months January February and March and then Keeps going down into the into the into The months after That it looks like like I mean Bitcoin Dominance monthly High Kashi candles Have been green since December not a Single red One not a single one even though Bitcoin USD had two red monthly High andachi Candles Bitcoin dominance didn't have a Single one Bitcoin dominance has been Stronger relatively speaking because Dominance was going up even when Bitcoin Was going Down So it's a brutal Market I will say that The reason why we talk about Dominance I'm not saying you go you know I'm not saying like oh you go buy Bitcoin dominance or you don't right I'm Saying it tells you how to manage your Risk in these years right it tells you That and if you want to take on more Risk good the altcoin Market's there you Know what's right for me is probably not What's right for you the altcoin market Is there for your taking okay and I hope You guys make a lot of money in the

Altcoin market But you know if you're in wealth Preservation mode and you want to make Sure you protect your Capital then Bitcoin has offered better risk adjusted Returns than essentially the rest of the Market we know that by looking at just The Bitcoin dominance chart you also Know that by just simply going over and Calculating out your risk adjusted Returns for a portfolio of say Bitcoin Eth and Litecoin Just for the hell of it it makes it a Prettier chart when you include a third Coin and it shows you that heavier Bitcoin portfolios maximize your sortino Ratio and your sharp ratio over ethereum It shows that but it doesn't stop people From saying well ethereum's been holding Up well yeah ethereum does very Well in in in having years and post Having years with respect to bitcoin but In bare Market years and prehab years Ethereum does not do does not do that Well against Bitcoin that that's why It's so much lower it's because in these Years it gets wrecked against Bitcoin why should this time be any Different this this time hasn't been Different it's been the same the Soro The sortino ratio is maximized with 75% Bitcoin 25% e right like I've never said That you shouldn't have Bitcoin I've Said that if you want exposure to crypto

Bitcoin will give you better risk Adjusted returns in the preh having year Because no matter the direction of Bitcoin USD the Bitcoin dominance should Go up so you don't have to you know Speculate in a thousand different Altcoins to try to make a return Bitcoin Has given you a pretty good return this Year and you even have to take on that Much risk it was the the lowest risk Cryptocurrency and it went up you know More than 2x so far off the yearly Open now there's always a chance that Bitcoin doesn't break into the 40s right Like there's a chance that that happens And and that everyone gets you know is Is on board with the you know Bitcoin Breaking into the 40s and then it just Doesn't happen right like there's a Chance that that plays out but the point That I'm trying to make is that even if That happens right like even if that Happens then Bitcoin dominance is still Likely going to go up we had 10 weeks in A row where Bitcoin went up starting From or Bitcoin dominance went up Starting the week of August 21st August 21st now go look at Bitcoin USD August 21st What you'll what you'll see here Starting the week of August 21st Bitcoin Was going down right August 21st August 28th September 4th three weeks in a row

Where Bitcoin went down and dominance Went up those three weeks anyways so It's more likely that dominance goes up If Bitcoin goes up and if Bitcoin goes Down just because when Bitcoin moves Quickly the market just kind of sits in Awe and watches but I'm arguing that Even if Bitcoin goes down the dominance Could go up it's been the argument all Year right it's been the argument all Year year doesn't matter if it goes up Dominance goes up if it goes down Dominance goes up so if the dominance Goes up no matter What then a Bitcoin crypto heavy Portfolio a Bitcoin heavy crypto Portfolio has not been a bad choice and We can cherry pick the all coins that Have outperformed it yes congratulations To those people who had those but Bitcoin has not been a bad choice this Year you know if you're going to pick a Year to have a Bitcoin heavy crypto Portfolio what year would you want to Have that would you want to have it in a Year where the dominance is going up Like This or in a year when it's going down No I mean it would not have made sense To have like a Bitcoin heavy Portfolio like throughout this phase or This phase right or even over Here if you're going to have a Bitcoin Heavy portfolio then ideally the

Dominance is going up right because if If you if you're going to go Bitcoin Heavy and the dominance is going Down then you're basically missing out On all these things in the altcoin Market right all the people that are Calling for alt season today were Calling for the same thing at 40% Dominance and 43% do you guys remember When we broke above 49% over here do you Remember This before we broke above it people Were saying it's going to get rejected And lead to altcoin season now the alt Season that they called for at 49% Rejection now they're calling for it Again as dominance is above 53% while Their altcoin is probably down 20 or 30% Against Bitcoin since that time but they Don't focus on Satoshi Valuations they just look at the USD Valuations and say to hell with you know To hell with the Satoshi valuation just Look at what it's doing on its USD pair Forget about your opportunity cost right Yeah so you could have been up 30% more If you just bought Bitcoin which was Lower risk but hey you're up 5% on the US dollar which is nice you got get that Going for you so yeah people are going To call for All Season either way the Point is is All Season looks like this All season looks like this when Dominance is

Collapsing dominance has not been Collapsing here it's been going Up this is not what people think of when You think of all season when you think Of all season you think of of dominance Going from like you know 70% to 60% in a In a in a month or 60% and 50% a month Last Cycle dominance in fact dropped from 70% In January 2021 to 40 to 40% to less than 40% by May in only four months in only four Months dominance dropped from 70% 73% to Less than 40% that is all season my friends that Is all Season Right This is all bleeding back to bitcoin and Bitcoin going Higher and I get I mean total three is Put in a higher high I get it I mean It's the first higher high the total Three has had and I'm not trying to say That that's not relevant it probably is Right I'm not saying that no altcoins Haven't bottomed on their USD pairs I'm Sure some of them have It's just that if they haven't then what Does that mean for their Bitcoin Pairs And the the point was always that you Can convert your Bitcoin back to Altcoins after the Bitcoin dominance Rally is

Over look At when we look at at um at the ethereum Bitcoin Pair right look at the inverses of It as humans I think we're just Naturally we want to see things go up so For a lot of people that look at The Ether Bitcoin pair they just think that It has to keep going up but look at the Bitcoin ether pair right it's trying to Break out just like dominance did you Guys remember when dominance broke out Above a key level it looks like the Bitcoin ether valuation wants to go Higher and break above these levels it's What it looks like to me but the point Is that at the merge one Bitcoin would Have only gotten you less than 12 eth Today it gets you 18 eth it's a huge Difference right so like if you had Taken one if you had taken 12 eth over Here converted it to one Bitcoin and then today if you converted That one Bitcoin back to Eth you would magically have six more Eth six and a half more eth right which At $2,000 you know if you just say if if You just say 6 eth at 2,000 that's an Extra 12K that just appeared because you Got out of a higher risk asset when People were calling for the flipping and Went into a lower risk asset Bitcoin you still had exposure to the

Upside but you wanted to minimize your Downside risk Bitcoin USD went down After ether Bitcoin topped remember it Did So if you had converted your ether to Bitcoin here Right Here in the short term your Bitcoin Valuation went down your your your the The valuation of of your Bitcoin against The US dollar it went down maybe you Didn't know that FTX was going to happen Right so you converted your e to Bitcoin watch Bitcoin go down maybe We're depressed for a little bit about That but then bitcoin's up more than 2X So you maintained exposure to the Upside and minimized your downside risk And because of that now you have six More E Right same thing could be said for most Every single altcoin right same thing For Ada Bitcoin like at one over8 a Bitcoin Um look at the trend Right And in August 2021 when Bitcoin would Gotten you 16,000 Ada that today gets You 98,000 Ada maybe it's not done going up right I Mean maybe it is done but maybe it's not And and maybe we are going to see it

Break to the Upside and then slowly Trend back Down so if Bitcoin breaks up and goes Into the 40s the dominance should go up If Bitcoin goes down then dominance Should go up maybe Bitcoin goes up and Then dominance goes up and then Bitcoin Goes down and then dominance still goes Up and because after Bitcoin hits a high The FED starts to cut uh a month or two After that because the unemployment rate Is starting to go up Right if you look at alternative Measures of unemployment if you look at Like greater than 15 weeks it's been Looking It had moved up pretty Quickly right like here's a Year-over-year percentage change of it It's positive which normally is not a Good Thing Anyways those are my somewhat repetitive Views on on bitcoin dominance I I do Want people to to sort of be aware Though that it's not going to go up Forever and just for completeness look At at year-to dat Rli Of Dominance excluding Staes in having years right so look at It in 2016 and then look at it in 2020 What do you see in both having years

Dominance only went a little bit higher Than what its yearly open was why is That well it makes sense when you think About It having years correspond to election Years and election years are when There's going to be more political Pressure on the FED to Cut right and if the labor market keeps Showing weakness there's going to be a Lot of pressure on the FED to cut the Problem is if the FED Cuts that means dominance is probably Getting close to topping Out doesn't mean that it's completely Topped right but within a month or two And in both having years the dominance Only went a few percent above its yearly Open right like over here it went up to 1.02 X um and then it later on went up To about 1.05 X from the yearly open 2016 it only went a very about 1% higher At the very beginning of the year and For the rest of the year dominance was Below where it opened that year same Thing in 2017 more or less so my my Guess my best guess for Dominance my best guess which is subject To change because markets are always Changing right my best guess though is That It Rallies for the rest of the year Occasional pullbacks maybe but it

Rallies for the rest of the year and Could start to form that topping process Over the next few months because Remember the market thinks cuts are Coming early next year kind of makes Sense with it being an election year and And also seeing the labor market show Signs of weakness do you think that you Know do you think that incumbents are Going to want to go into the election Ction with unemployment soaring and the FED not cutting no they'll probably say Hey let's get some Cuts in early in the Year so that by the time we get to November there's you know there's Um by the time we get to November of 2024 hopefully things are starting to Turn back around with the labor market Right and the problem is we say you know What about high asset prices yeah I mean But you also you can't have everything Right like if if you have a high stock Market that's great people feel good but If if the stock market's going up it Creates the wealth effect and if you Have the wealth effect that's going to Put upward pressure on inflation right So what do you want going into the Election do you want do you want a stock Market that that cooled off in early 2024 and that is trending higher again In late 2024 or do you want a stock market that Just keeps going up but so to is

Inflation coming back and instead of Spending $300 every time to go to the Grocery store now you're spending $400 Every time you go to the grocery store Store instead of you know gas AT3 or $4 A gallon now it's back up to5 or $6 a Gallon you can't have everything right I Mean you have to pick you you simply Cannot have everything and I'm guessing I'm guessing that there will be Overwhelming pressure for the FED to Pivot in 2024 Overwhelming especially if these Trends In the unemployment rate Continue And I I don't see any reason why they Won't I mean continued claims while it Was down this past week I mean continued Claims have been moving up so it would Lead me to believe that it's going to Lead into into softening in the labor Market and again remember too that with The unemployment rate it's not just About people getting laid off right it's Also about people that are new entrance To the labor force and the this metric's Going up Look at the year-over a-year percentage Change let's take a seven Monon moving Average right like this thing is going Higher pretty quickly it's at 15% Year-over-year have we ever seen that And did not go into a Recession I don't I don't think

So I mean here we had a recession just Beforehand um but it was when it crossed Over right but I mean a lot of these Times like like I mean like in the 880s When it's up in this area like you have A Recession and we're getting pretty High so where's this rally coming from In Risk assets why is it materializing Well you know I think a number of Reasons and I I've mentioned several of Them yelling issuing shorter duration Was one it took a lot of pressure off The stock market it it it basically Allowed the bond market to potentially Find a bottom or at least a local bottom If not a macro bottom um it allowed in Addition to that you also have favorable Seasonality for the stock market after You get out of your pre-election year Correction from from August through October so that was favorable you also Have um the the market finally starting To price in a Fed pause and I think the Fed's done I mean if the fed's not done Then it just simply means that you know The FED funds rate is not above our star The the the theoretical level which Above the economy contracts and below The economy expands I think we're above Our star if we're not above our of star And this things just get dragged on Forever but if we are above rstar and This is in fact the terminal rate 5 a

Half% which was the rate we suggested Would be the terminal rate a year and a Half ago I said 5 a half% is likely the Terminal rate if this is the terminal Rate the market you know one reason is That the market rallies after the Terminal rate is hit that's not new go Look at the S&P Right it rallied over here after the Terminal rate was hit and then it still Capitulated Eventually um you go back even further You'll find very similar things right The market here we got a pause Market Sold off and then rallied and then sold Off again here we got a pause the market Rallied for a few months and then sold Off it's not uncommon to see that right Here we got a pause Market rallied and Then eventually sold back off so we see That a lot right we see the market we'll See the FED paw the market rallies the Reason why the market rallies is because The long yeld curve goes down and and um You know with the long theal curve is Going down it takes some of that Pressure off risk assets the problem is That you know the 30y year and the 10 Year 20 year that you know they top First before risk assets do and there's A chance they already topped right There's a chance that the bond you know The treasuries that like the 10year Yield there's a chance that it's already

Topped and that things like TLT Potentially have already bottomed no Guarantees worst case is I I think the Long of the Y curve goes back to where The short end of the O curve is but who Knows right who Knows so to Summarize These are My Views I think dominance is going to keep Going up through the end of the year it Might even bleed into early 2024 I think that dominance will likely Top out around the time that the FED Starts to cut which I expect to happen In 2024 even if the dominance tops out it Doesn't necessarily mean that altcoins On their USD pairs can't go back down in Fact after this top USD valuations of Altcoins did go down for a little while Okay but it would mean that with respect To bitcoin those altcoins are finally Becoming worth the risk not because they Can't go down in their USD pair but it's Just that if Bitcoin goes down on their USD pair the altcoins might go down a Comminate amount right so like they're Not you know they wouldn't drop any more Than they otherwise were so like if Bitcoin were to go to 40K or 42k or 46k Or whether it tops out here and then Drop the initial reaction by altcoins Could be very very negative but if it Continues to drop then at some point

Dominance just tops out everything drops Together the FED gets to the last rate Cut and then a new a new cycle begins um In terms of the business cycle by the Federal Reserve not necessarily talking About the fouryear cycle which I know a Lot of crypto people are aware of but I'm talking about like the business Cycle by the FED when you go back to Those those low rates just like we saw You know in in March of 20120 when the FED cut and and we saw a lot of money Printing and and the rest is History and by the way I mean like if if Bitcoin is unable to break out here I Mean with with Bitcoin above 38k it Certainly seems like there's a a good Chance it could break out but if it Doesn't if it doesn't break Out and breaks down You know if it breaks down you could Still have another example where it then Rallies back up a month or two later Into either a spot ETF news or or the Having narrative whatever and still Breaks all Bitcoin pairs Down so we'll continue to follow Bitcoin Dominance Um not my most popular videos I get that I know I get a lot of flack on Twitter For them but I really do think it's Going higher I'll admit it if I'm wrong Um it's been right so far if by the you Know if if in a couple of months

Dominance is not moving then clearly you Know the timeline is off but I still Think dominance will go up no matter the Direction of Bitcoin I'm not taking a Strong position on on the direction I I Think there's a case to be made either Way right Bitcoin could drop from 38k And and leave everyone who was hoping For 48 for 40K in the dust But if it goes up to the 618 which is Where it went went in 2019 then it means It could go to the high 40s there's a Compelling case to be made either way I Put out a poll the other day asking People if if Bitcoin was going to go 40 Above 40K to 40K before the having and Like 78 or 79% of people said yes so Most of you watching this video think That we're going to hit 40K before the Having most people right so one out of Every five of you thinks that we're not Going to hit 40K so think about that Like you know if if you're sitting here Watching the show and you think that We're not going to hit 40K before the Having there's four other people for Every one of you that thinks you're Wrong Right So there a lot of things to think about As far as as far as ether Bitcoin I know It's a contentious view to say that it Could break below the June low I get it And if I and if if it doesn't happen I

Know I know I'll never hear the end of It I get that I'm not as deterministic About this I feel like as I used to be Like over Here I was very deterministic about it Breaking down I still think it's going To break down but look the market market Humbles everyone you know Market humbles Everyone to be completely honest I I Think that the people that are convinced That I'm wrong are more confident that I Am that I'm right right so like you know I think ether Bitcoin is going to break Down but I feel like a lot of the people On on Twitter and whatnot that that are Are are sort of you know blasting these Views they're more confident that I'm Wrong than I am that I'm right so I I Think about that too like I I could see It bouncing and and you know a soft Landing ensuing right but history shows It's not the most likely Outcome and remember B&B Bitcoin already Broke down below the June low and a lot Of a lot of things did I mean like I Think like a Bitcoin it's up recently But like I mean the June low it took out A long time ago right I mean a lot of These alts took out whatever their June Lows were I mean dot Bitcoin hasn't even I mean it it's been one of the weaker Ones AAC Bitcoin did get a pretty nice Pump here ever since I mean it's Completely faded that pump though for

The last several weeks Um all right I think we've gone long Enough dominance is at 53% I think the next major Milestone Will be 56 55 to 56 will be the next Major milestone for dominance above that Is that you know that that 59 60% level Which 60% or even just below it or just above It you know that could end up being a Very significant level for Bitcoin Dominance from which it might start to Turn around as we get into as we get Into the having year if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium and into cryptoverse Decom we are still running the sale if You put in Cyber Monday at checkout You'll get 50% off your first month in Addition to the discount that's already There so make sure you guys check that Out we'll run that just for a couple More days and then we'll wrap that up And that code won't work anymore I'll See you guys next time bye


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