Bitcoin Dominance

Hey everyone thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we are going to be talking About the Bitcoin dominance which as we Know is of course everyone's favorite Topic if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and check out into The Crypt premium at into the We are running the sale right now so Make sure you guys check that out links In the description below let's go and Jump in so we've had this theory For about two years now maybe a little Over two years that the Bitcoin Dominance will take a journey from 40% to 60% that has been the theory okay and it Has been a long journey right I mean It's been a very long journey and and I I think a lot of us are are very weary Of it and I'm sure many of us would have Just been happy if if this whole Dominance move would have occurred much Sooner than than the amount of time it Is taking it to occur but Regardless that was the theory now one Of the things about Bitcoin dominance we Have to understand is why do we make Videos on bitcoin dominance in the first Place right it's not like it's not like You're going out there and and buying Bitcoin dominance right like if someone

Says what did you DCA this week oh I I DCA some Bitcoin dominance right it's Not like you're going out and doing that So then why do we talk about it so much Okay the reason is to understand Opportunity cost or your risk adjusted Returns that is the reason nothing more Nothing less in late 2022 we said that there would likely be A drop in Q4 and there was by the entire Asite class and one of the things I I Really struggled with back then was Deciding how I wanted to tackle the Prehab year because of course there's Two ways that I could tackle it number One is to just say you know DCA Everything right or or something the Other thing is to focus on the Bitcoin Valuations of altcoins because the Bitcoin valuations of altcoins are Extremely different than the USD Val Valuations now of course I knew that That focusing on the Bitcoin valuations Is is the more difficult path to go down Especially if alt USD pairs go up Right because you know if you think About it if you if you DCA an altcoin Throughout say the the prehab year and And you see it go up 20% in a day at any Point right that's going to make you Feel pretty good but the problem is that You would have in most cases not all but In most cases you would have been much Better off just sticking with Bitcoin

Now I will reiterate that my strategy With Bitcoin is not trying to time the Market it is just simply dcing into the Market based on the risk levels we've Talked about that on the channel many Times that is the strategy that I have Implemented and I've been following that Same strategy for for a long time for Many many years right we we first Started talking about the risk back in 2019 but I've also come to find out the Hard way many many times that sticking With a Bitcoin heavy portfolio Throughout the bare Market year and the Prehab year tends to outperform an Altcoin heavy portfolio and not by just A little bit by a lot right and so if You wanted to preserve the Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio then you Would want your portfolio to be Bitcoin Heavy and not altcoin heavy now anytime I say that I I know it's going to make a Lot of people pissed off because they're Going to say well you know what about This altcoin that's up you know 200% This year or what about that altcoin That's been putting in higher lows Against Bitcoin I have always and will always Maintain that there are some exceptions To the rule there are some exceptions There always have been there always will Be there's always exceptions to the rule But the collective altcoin Market has

Been bleeding against Bitcoin off and on For the last 2 and A2 years now you Might say again it's not 2 and A2 years If the low is put in in August of 2022 At you know just below 39% but as I'm sure many of you could Guess right the the simple retort to That is that the the reason we study Bitcoin dominance is to understand all Bitcoin value valuations not to be Overly concerned with how the stable Coin Market fits into that I think the Stable coin market cap is an important Part of the cryptoverse that we should Keep keep track of and we do follow it Occasionally I even did a video on it a Few months ago but when we talk about Bitcoin dominance what I'm mostly Focused on is how I can use it to better Understand all Bitcoin Pairs and if you Look at Bitcoin dominance you know since May of 2021 Excluding stable coins it's been putting In higher lows right so collectively the Altcoin market has been bleeding back to Bitcoin for the last two and a half Years two and a half years now early on In this trend it was certainly not a Popular view to talk about the Bitcoin Dominance going higher right it was Certainly not a popular View and the Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables is Now at 57% but again this was not a popular

View a lot of people hated that view and And they were very bullish on the Altcoin market if you remember back when Bitcoin dominance was approaching 49% there were a lot of people calling For alt season right A lot of people Calling for a rejection at 49% followed by quote unquote alt season Now people are celebrating alt season With dominance now at 53% so what Happened between here and here all Bitcoin valuations bled but because a Lot of these altcoins are up on their USD pairs over the last few weeks no one Really cares about what their valuations Were you know back in April they just Care about what they are today so let's Go through a few of these altcoins and Where they are today on their USD Valuations versus where they were in April and then simply compare that to Bitcoin okay so for instance if we were To look at the collective altcoin Market Initially you can see that the altcoin Market is at 395 billion right where was It in April 395 billion the same place it is Today right the same exact place that it Is today is where it was in April and It's where it was in October of 2022 and It's where it was in July of 2022 now I'm not saying it can't go higher but The point is that had you DCA the colle Altcoin Market versus Bitcoin you would

Have been much better off with Bitcoin Now if you had picked one of the few Altcoins that outperformed Bitcoin then Congratulations I'm not trying to take That away from you I'm not trying to Minimize the risk that you took on you Took a calculated risk and it paid off But for every one altcoin that Outperformed Bitcoin there was probably 50 that didn't and that can be fully Reflected in the fact that the altcoin Market or I mean it can be reflected by Just by simply looking at at at Bitcoin Domino right if the altcoin market were Holding up a well against Bitcoin then Why has the dominance gone from 38% back In in Q3 2022 to 53% in in Q4 of 2023 so This has been a a crazy journey by the Bitcoin dominance and it's been putting In higher lows for over a year now right For over a year dominance has in fact Been putting in higher lows and again The issue is that altcoins have Basically been bleeding against Bitcoin That entire process now let's go look at A few altcoins okay so um first of all There's cardano right we can look at Ada And you know compared compare where it Is today to where it was in April right In April it was at 45 cents today it's At 36 Cents look at Avalanche right today it's At $13 back in April it was at $20 look at

Madic Today it's at What 80 cents where was it back in in in February or even April right it was at A120 almost so I mean I fully get it Right I mean I I've been there a lot my Myself but the reality is is that you Know the people that were dunking on the Bitcoin dominance back in April and February are now dunking on it again Anytime it has a PO back but it's like But your altcoin but a lot of these Altcoins are well below where they were Even in early 20123 so the dominance view has been Correct right I mean like you would have Been better off in Bitcoin right you Would have been better off in Bitcoin For most of these altcoins polka dot is Now at $5 and you know in July it was at it was At almost $6 in April it was at almost $7 in February it was at at $8 so it it's uh you know I I I I feel Like I put myself in a pretty difficult Spot with the altcoin market because Anytime I mean anytime that it gets any Type of a rally right like anytime it Does this you know I I never hear the End of it right until we until until we Get a correction right I just never I Simply never hear the end of it but the Issue is that while while polka dot has Been putting in lower

Highs Bitcoin has been putting in higher Lows so yes I mean I I get that people Are happy that their altcoin is Marginally off their lows but you would Have been better off with Bitcoin you Know so much better off with Bitcoin Over the last couple of years than you Would have been with the altcoin Market so that is the reason why we talk About it now I don't want to cherry pick The few you know just those few altcoins That I know have been doing poorly we Can also talk about some that have been Doing a little bit better xrp has been One that has been putting in higher lows Since June of 2022 right I you know this Is xrp is is one that that I I I really Do have mixed feelings on um you know it Did pretty well for me back in in 2017 Last cycle it didn't really do that well You know um we had this massive selloff After the whole SEC stuff and it put in A lower high so I mean yes it's been Putting in higher lows since June but I Mean it it didn't even put in a higher High in the bull market when the FED Printed $6 trillion so you know I I I do Struggle with that to some degree Because normally what you would want to See is you would want to see altcoins Putting in higher highs from one cycle To another not lower highs or not double Tops or anything like that now we could Give xrp the benefit of the doubt and

Say that maybe if the SEC hadn't done This it would have put in a higher high That's a possibility Right but this is just goes to show you That there are some coins that have not Been putting in lower highs all year Right like Ada has been putting in you Know it hasn't been lower highs all year Right I mean you can see February was a High and then April was a higher high And then and then we had a lower high And then basically you know it's sort of Back at that level Avalanche you know Has just been putting in lower highs all Year right polka dot has just been Putting in lower highs all year Litecoin Was putting in higher highs for a while But we noted many many times that it Normally sells off into its having and And I believe we actually can can can Look at that um on one of these charts There yeah so we we sort of Drew this Out and said look I mean it it typically Peaks right before it's having and then Sells off and I mean sure enough I mean It did the exact same thing that it Always does and you know I I it should Not be that surprising right I mean this Is what it always does is it it Peaks Out before the having and then it gets Pretty boring in until until the until Late having year post having year for Bitcoin I mean you know it just kind of Does this for a

While pretty boring after that it Doesn't mean it can't go up occasionally Right I mean like yeah 10% here 20% There minus 40% here right Ian it can do That but the problem is that in this Case again you know Litecoin is where it Was back in November 2022 and Bitcoin is more than 2x off its Low so We must understand the importance of Dominance right you have to understand It I mean it's not to me it's it's one Of the most fundamental parts of the Cryptoverse that we must understand and I mean I again I get that if you're DCA An altcoin and if it's off it's low you Feel great this week and I mean why Shouldn't you I mean the the Market's up A lot total three is up a lot if you Took on a risk congratulations it paid Off but you know if you were to go over To a a DCA tool right so this is a DCA Tool this shows you you know had you Started dcing Bitcoin in let me just Carry it out through today how you Started dcing Bitcoin just in 2023 let's Suppose you didn't do it at all in 2022 You just started $100 a week in 2023 then you would have invested $4,500 And it would be currently worth around $6,000 right so not bad you probably Feel pretty good about that you're up 33% on your money now had you lump Summed of course you would be up even

More but the reality of the situation is Most people just put a portion of their Paycheck into crypto and so you know the Idea is that you know you don't have the Ability to lump some because you know if You did you probably would have put the Money in the market back then and if you If you are just bringing in a paycheck You're just putting a portion of that Paycheck into the market so had you done It with Bitcoin you'd be up 33% now Where would you be if you had done the Same thing with ethereum I imagine you Would be up right now but not as much You'd be up about 11% right what if you had carried out The same thing with um and let you Actually put them all in the same chart So we can compare them so compare it to Eth let's look at at at BNB we'll throw Xrp there's salana Solana's had a great Year this year it also I I've said this Before I think salana pulled forward a Lot of its losses at the end of last Year do the FTX collapse uh Cardano um you know and and so and so Forth right I mean that's a good sample Set so salana has done the best right But it also sold off the hardest last Year xrp is up 51% that's one of the few That it's been putting in higher lows Ada you'd be up 15 and half% B&B you'd Be down 3% so in this case Bitcoin is sort of in

The in the upper half of that of of of Just these those sort of those top coins That we that we happen to to pick right I'm trying to be open and honest I'm not Trying to cherry pick ones that I know Have outperformed or underperformed That's just what it is right it's sort Of in the middle now if we add on um a Lot of other random ones uh Dogecoin I Know is a favorite let's add Litecoin And polka dot and madic um and there's Avalanche and and Uniswap and and there's stellar and Monero uh let's just go see what what Those did now where does Bitcoin rank on This list of all the ones we just added It's still number three right so salana And xrp have outperformed it there's Always a few that do I will reiterate There's always a few that do but look at All the other ones they've Underperformed Bitcoin so again rather Than stress yourself out figuring out Which altcoin is going to outperform Bitcoin my view is that it's you're Better off just sticking with Bitcoin And saying well you know the altcoin Market's going to do what it's going to Do I'll just stick with Bitcoin because I can't possibly know which one's going To do better had you started dcing like Mid 2022 I imagine it would look worse For you know for something like salana That sold off aggressively it went from

Like $40 to $10 in in just a few months And we could add a few more um let's add Maybe just a few more uh Link um there's Cosmos uh there's vchain there's there's A few more that we could add on there Um and where where does it rank ranks Number four so link currently Outperforms it but link is one that Outperformed Bitcoin in 2019 as well Right it was one of the few altcoins I I Spoke a lot about on my channel back Then and it it does tend to outperform Bitcoin um in the prehab a my tends to I Mean data data point of one did it in 2019 and it's currently doing it in 2023 but that would not have been the Case if we had done the same thing three Weeks ago right I mean link was you know Link's gone up a lot over the over a Spin of a very short Peri period of time So again throughout the prehab Year there are a few that have Outperformed Bitcoin but the majority Have not and a lot of them are in the Red in fact right I mean dcing them you Know you might feel good this week but Again like you know some of them you Know avax uni BNB do mtic Adam and Litecoin they're all down on your dcas This year like you literally be in the Red on DCA of those altcoins this year With Bitcoin you would have been up 30 33% 33% versus NE 5% and all you had to

Do was stick with Bitcoin and and look You know try to figure out what Direction is Bitcoin dominance going to Going to go so that's why we talk about Bitcoin dominance right that's the Reason it it's to it's to understand What is the what is the risk adjusted Returns what are the risk adjusted Returns and does it make sense to DCA Into altcoins or not now guys I'm not Going to to go on this parade forever Right I mean I'm not going to just sort Of wave the Bitcoin dominance Theory at Everyone forever normally sometime in The having year is when altcoins Collectively start to outperform bitcoin Collectively now some of you guys are Probably like well what is he talking About my altcoins already been up for Bitcoin that's great right if it has Then that probably bodess well for that Altcoin in future years but what I'm Talking about is the collective altcoin Market does not tend to bottom out Against Bitcoin until sometime in the Having Year or late preh having year right but Collectively historically it's been in The having year by historically I mean Last cycle right so when we think about It like That it's important to recognize that You know it's not like the altcoin Market will underperform Bitcoin forever

Probably won't at some point in 2024 I imagine the collective Al coin Market will start to outperform bitcoin But it doesn't change the fact that Being Bitcoin heavy as opposed to Altcoin heavy would have been Mathematically better if you average it Out for the entire altcoin Market if we Pick a few we can find a few that Outperform Bitcoin but collectively they Did not you would have been much better Off with Bitcoin what and and not only In the prehab year but also in the bare Market year one way to visualize this is To go look at their Bitcoin valuations But then take the inverse right so like Look at one over adaa Bitcoin right and I mean look at This in August of 2021 one Bitcoin would Have fetched you 16,000 Ada today one Bitcoin fetches you around 999,000 Ada Just a few weeks ago it would have Fetched you over 120,000 Ada I Imagine it's been it's been sort of Riding that bull market support Bend for Almost the entire time with the Exception of right here here you can see It was below it there was a wick below It right here and we're now currently Below it again and there was also a wick Right here below it as well but for the Most part it's been trending higher and Again had you stuck with Bitcoin over

Over a lot of altcoins you would see the Same the same Trend right and you can go Look at it for a lot of different Altcoins right I mean there's like There's avac um as well I mean look at This right like one Bitcoin back in late 2021 would have fetched you 30 85 avac Today it gets you 2700 avac huge Difference look at polka Dot at this one one over dot Bitcoin Gives you the Bitcoin dot valuation and I mean it still hasn't even pulled back To the bullmark sport band despite this Pullback in 2021 one Bitcoin would have Fetched you about 1,00 dot today it gets You 7,000 dot we've been bullish on Bitcoin dominance for the last two years So had you just you know stuck your Altcoins into Bitcoin two years ago in Q In q1 of 2022 I mean you're you're essentially Even if you did it here in January or February we made I made a video in early 2022 saying that altcoins were too risky With respect to bitcoin that was likely Going to stay that way for the next Couple of years you know even if you had Done that at at at January 2022 your dot Had you converted them into Bitcoin Would have preserved your Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio but had you Kept it in Dot the Satoshi of your the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio is Just absolutely wrecked so again the

Whole point is to say look guys I mean You would have been much better off just Sticking with Bitcoin in the bare Market Year and the and the um and the prehab Year for whatever exposure you wanted in Crypto that's the point now in 2022 I Often said cash is King I often said That in 2022 um it's not like I was Saying the Bitcoin was King in 2022 but In prehab years Bitcoin dominance tends To go up a lot no matter the dire of Bitcoin USD so this same type of Analysis can be done on the majority of The altcoin market the majority of them And you know I look at some of these Altcoins that I've covered in in the Last bull market right I mean like you Know I look at Ada and and I look at Link and and and polka dot and whatnot And xrp and um and Avalanche right and I Mean I look at it and I'm like you Know it still is a lower high for a lot Of them right I'm not saying it can't Turn into something more than that um at Some point it probably will right I mean The Market's not going to go down Forever but dot literally just put in a New low less than a month ago less than One month ago dot put in a new low I Mean it's crazy how quickly the market Changes from you know altcoins putting In new lows again to everyone getting Very very bullish on altcoins Dot put in A new low less than a month ago you know

So like if I wanted to I could go out And buy an altcoin and still get it Pretty close to these historic lows but The issue is that there's not even a Guarantee that this is the low it could Be right I mean this this is where it Sort of hit this low over here it could Be but it could also simply take out That low eventually for all we know Right I don't know um and and if it does Maybe it'll retest it at some point Right there's all sorts of things that Could happen but the point is that you Know the case to be made here could have Been made here as well and there and There and there and it was and every Single time the pitch Forks came out the Bitcoin dominance view was mocked and The entire time the dominance of Bitcoin Just keeps going higher so my point is Not to try to you know catch catch Falling knives of the altcoin market my Point is to say one thing simply Exposure to crypto in Bitcoin preserves The Satoshi valuation of your Portfolio yes if you speculate long Enough on the altcoin market you're Going to get some pretty great pumps you Know polka dot got this nice move over Here 60% rally back in Q3 of 2022 in in October of 2022 it got a 30% Rally in January of 2022 through April I Mean it went up 84% in June of this year went up 33%

Right now it's up about 40% dots had Some great rallies right there's been Some money to be made on this altcoin if You're timing each of these lows but the Issue is that a lot of people they just Keep they you know they DCA it all the Way down hoping that it eventually works Out and guys I'll be honest like at some Point there's a good chance that it it Will be in the money again if you you Know if you DCA long enough and and you Stick with it and you and you sort of Wait for looser monetary policy to come Back there's a good chance that would Work out but where it doesn't Necessarily work out is the Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio there's no Guarantee that dot Bitcoin ever sees a New high right there's no guarantee that It does there's a lot of altcoins that Never see new highs on their Bitcoin Pairs and at this point you knowt Bitcoin is down 86% from its High 86% from the high that's a huge Drop so you know if if you have been Dcing it I mean hell dot would have to Go up right 120% just against Bitcoin just to get Back to where it was in February this year just to get back to Where it was this year this February it Had to go up 123% I'm not saying it can't do that but Wouldn't you feel a lot better if your

Portfolio had been Bitcoin heavy instead Of say do heavy for the last year and Then you reserve the right to come in During the having year and say all right What altcoins look to be bottoming out Against Bitcoin and and which ones might Actually outperform Bitcoin once we go Back to looser monetary policy That's the point and you know this is Something that I again I thought long And hard about back in late 2022 as to Whether I wanted to go this route or not I knew the easier route would be to just Look at at at USD Pairs and and and make The uh the the super hyped up videos and Whatnot anytime the USD pair bounced 10% But I knew I would be doing a disservice To everyone by doing that because the Satoshi valuation is Bleeding a Bitcoin I mean it has it ever Has the satosi valuation of avax ever Stopped bleeding has It at every single point you would have Had a reason to believe that it was Done and it hasn't Stopped right there's a few that are are That look look different I mean like Look at link Bitcoin technically these are all lower Highs technically speaking this is a Nice Breakout right this is a nice Breakout so far it's still a lower high I'm not saying it can't turn into Something else but even then it's still

Just at the valuation it was at back in November of 2022 so a lot of these altcoins follow a Similar path right and rather than Continue to cherry pick every single all Maybe one more madic Bitcoin is an Interesting one this is one I've been Following uh somewhat closely because it You know it's been close to breaking Down here and it hasn't done it um so We'll see you know we'll I'm I'm really Curious how this one is going to play Out here over the coming months um and Look we could go down the list but I Think the better thing to do is to look At total three minus usct divided by Bitcoin okay now this chart I think is One of the more important charts in the Cryptoverse it's basically a derivative Of Bitcoin dominance it's just the Altcoin market minus the stable coin Market cap of tether divided by Bitcoin Now some people say well why don't you Include usdc or D or you know all these Other other other stable coins the Argument is that it's sort of a rounding Error you know I I don't need to go Through every single every single stable Coin and include it I just I mean it's Sort of a rounding ER at the end of the Day you know the the the market cap of Tether is I mean let's just go grab it Here is 86 billion if I were to add up Usdt usdc die and B USD it said 117

Billion it's not a huge difference I Mean it is a difference right but it's Not a huge difference right it's not a Huge difference so if you look at total 3 minus usdt divided by Bitcoin you get A chart that looks like this and it Should be very familiar to you look at The chart in 2023 alone let's look at yearly candles All Bitcoin pairs collectively are down 38% this is what they look like look at Last cycle this was 2018 2019 2020 what Do you notice three red Candles in a row three red in a Row you would have been better off last Cycle for the most part just hanging out In Bitcoin until it hit a new all-time High and then converting to alts I Understand that can be difficult for a Lot of people especially if those Altcoins are 2x off their lows on their USD pairs or 3x off their lows but the Issue is that Bitcoin was already like Six or sevenx off its lows so had you Stuck with Bitcoin until it hit new Highs most of the alls were just Bleeding against Bitcoin during that Entire time I mean look at them look at The chart right total t total 2 minus us Or total 3 minus USD divid by Bitcoin in 2018 right in 2018 you can see it drop From 089 to 058 89 this is a this is a 35% drop and Then here in 2019 it dropped 50% and

Then in 2020 it dropped 25 26% three years in a Row All Bitcoin pairs collectively bled one Single year 2021 which is the Year Everyone watching this video is probably Craving for you're craving for that alt Season that's what alt season looks like That's what all season looks like right Where dominance is dropping from some Major level to a much lower level where It's dropping from 60% to 40% over the Span of two or three months that is alt Season okay okay that is what alt season Is here the alt Market is just bleeding Back to Bitcoin now yes some of the Altcoins are going up on their USD pairs But a lot of them a lot of them are Still below their yearly highs right go Take a look at Ada Ada USD right its Yearly high was 45 cents it's still Sitting at 36 I'm not saying it can't Take out the yearly High there's a good Chance it could but bitcoin's sitting at A yearly high right now it's at it's Over 36k right Now xrp is below its yearly High Avalanche way below its yearly high of $22 polka dot well below its yearly high Of almost $8 Litecoin well below its Yearly high of $114 uni well below its yearly high of $75 is it up over the last Month yeah it's up

26% great okay CP the Champagne the issue is that it's been Bleeding back to Bitcoin the entire Time so we talk about Bitcoin dominance Not to understand magically you know Where where all USD pairs are going to Be but just to help us Identify if altcoins are worth the Risk with respect to bitcoin not with Respect to the US dollar it's not the Altcoin Reckoning as I've said almost Every single video that I do on bitcoin Dominance and the altcoin Reckoning Right it's always and it always has been All Bitcoin pairs that's where they get Wrecked right let me give you an example Back In back in Um Mid 2022 I converted some eth to bitcoin Right Here I also converted some more down Here admittedly just for just so all the All the cards are on the table and then I converted more up here so I did three Sort of three batches of of eth to Bitcoin and now eth Bitcoin is down here At 052 so I converted my eth to bitcoin a Lot of it most of it back then because I Didn't believe in the merge flipping Stuff And look at this eth Bitcoin let's just

Say the average is somewhere in Here is down 26% so I could go convert That Bitcoin that I converted from eth I Could go convert that back to eth and Have more have more ether than I had Otherwise and the the reason why I like To do that with a lot of the altcoins And ethereum is because I still have Exposure to the upside of Bitcoin but I Minimize my downside risk of the altcoin Market Right so where are we right now with Total 3 minus USD divid Bitcoin because This is an important chart and it's Sitting at 44% now I'll tell you what Happened last cycle okay we only have One data point to compare to here so I'll tell you what happened last cycle And you can figure out if you think That's going to happen again or not Right what happened last Cycle the first test of this level we Bounced what happened this cycle the First test we Bounced what happened last cycle the Second test we bounced Again what happened here it bounced Again what happened on the third test it Broke down why did it break down why did It break down did it break down because Bitcoin was going up did it break down Because Bitcoin was going down that's Probably an important thing to look At right it's probably an important

Thing to look At what have I said all along the Purpose of Bitcoin rallies are what have I said Bitcoin rallies break all Bitcoin Pairs down that's what they do so that When Bitcoin then rolls over into a Correction at some point the alts Continue to get crushed okay so look at This look what Happened I mean it's it's an important Thing to sort of Acknowledge altcoins broke down against Bitcoin they broke below this threshold That they were trying to hold at around That 41 42% level they were holding it from September 2018 until July of 2019 right Almost a year and it finally broke why Did it break down on a Bitcoin rally on A Bitcoin pump it broke all Bitcoin Pairs Down why because altcoins struggle to Catch a bid compared to bitcoin when Bitcoin's going up too quickly right Think about what's going on today you Have the spot ETF right you have the Having narrative um you know all this Institutional narrative stuff right Bitcoin is going up quicker than most of The altcoin market collectively right And so when Bitcoin moves a few thousand Dollars the dominance goes up a lot and Then altcoins can't compete with Bitcoin When it's moving up too quickly and so

What happens they bleed against Bitcoin On those on those rallies by Bitcoin all Bitcoin pairs T to bleed let's look at An example right now I mean like I think Bitcoin is up Bitcoin is up to it's at 364 36,400 what are all Bitcoin pairs Doing most of them are down there's a Couple here that are up slightly this One maker bitcoin's up 0.05% and a Bitcoin is up 1.53% most of these are Down right ether bitcoin's down um adaa Bitcoin is slightly down a lot of these Are slightly down right now so the issue Here for the altcoin market is that if Bitcoin pumps at All then all alts can't keep up right Like imagine if if like the spot ETF or Something is approved and there's like a Liquidity rush into Bitcoin and then it It does something like where it did in 2019 where it shoots up and then and Then puts in this local high comes back Down maybe shoots back up again that's Where look at this that's where all bit Coin pairs broke down last time right Here that's where they broke down it was When Bitcoin went on sort of this little Short-term moon mission before reversing Course and dropping you know 60 70% Before the Having and that is where all Bitcoin Pairs broke down so even though Bitcoin Fell back down later on right like even Though it eventually fell back down look

What happened to all Bitcoin payers they Never recovered In the short term I mean eventually they Did right but they did not recover in The short term and they did not get back Above This threshold in a sustained Way until March of 2021 March of 20 almost two years later It took and why did they get back above It then I'm glad you asked right we went Back to loer monetary policy we went Back to QE we went back to favorable Monetary conditions for highly highly Risky assets like the altcoin Market but it took a Bitcoin rally to Break these altcoins off of their Support levels so that when then Bitcoin Rolled Over the altcoin market had nowhere to Hide and they kept going down on their Bitcoin Pairs and and then they sort of They they finally bottomed out on their Bitcoin pair here in September of 2019 They then double bottomed in in May May Of 2020 and then they even had sort of Like a a wof spring in in December 2020 January 2021 I mean think about it like you Could have just had a Bitcoin heavy Portfolio until January of 2021 and then You could have made a killing in the Altcoin market just by converting your Bitcoin back to altcoins you could have Literally sat out of the altcoin market

For three Years look at these 12-month candles Again you could have sat on the altcoin Market for three years Just focused on bitcoin accumulation Because you thought the Bitcoin Dominance was going higher focused on Bitcoin accumulation and then after Bitcoin broke its highs and went Parabolic then you convert your Bitcoin To alts and then you make all the money In the altcoin in the in the altcoin Market where that's when altcoins shot Up like crazy right for three years in a Row all sped against Bitcoin Now I know what you're probably thinking Right you're probably thinking well Ben Last cycle all bottomed out in September Of 2019 is it not possible that they've Bottomed out here in October of 2023 yeah anything's possible you're not Going to say me that it's impossible for That to be the case but what I would Also say as a retort is that the altcoin Market in my opinion this is not proven Because we only have one data point it's Not proven but in my opinion the altcoin Market bottomed in in September because The FED had already started to cut Interest rates in July the FED started to cut interest Rates in July we were going back to Looser monetary policy therefore riskier

Assets like altcoins were able to Outperform the King so After we started to cut interest after The FED started to cut that's when all Bottomed out against Bitcoin it wasn't Before then so when I when I think about Like okay well is it possible that They've bottomed out against against Bitcoin in October um you know around The same time as last cycle September Look guys anything's possible anything's Possible bitcoin's at 36.4k I thought The highest Bitcoin was going to go this Year was 35k okay so it's higher than What I thought was going to be the Highest valuation for the year um Anything's Possible but the point is is you know Fundamentally it would make sense that You would need looser monetary policy For all sustainably outperform Bitcoin It doesn't mean that they don't occasion Get a nice pop for a few months just Like we've seen many many times I mean Look at look from June of 2022 until Until April March of the following year Right and pretty nice move to the Upside so I I think that's where I am Like I don't know you know is it is it Worth considering that that it took Looser monetary Policy or is it more so worth Considering just sort of the time in the

Market right or the time of the market Right you know September of 2019 October Of 2020 right that's the hard part to Figure out right like that's the hard Part to figure out and you know up until Now I I still hold the view that Bitcoin Dominance is going higher right I don't I don't really have a strong reason to Think that that Bitcoin dominance is Topped out uh just yet and I know some People are going to say that it has Topped out but a lot of the people that Have disagree with me about Bitcoin Dominance also disagree with me about it In in in 2022 and in mid 2023 I mean They've disagreed about it the entire Way and so you know I don't I don't I Mean even this past week I had people Dunking on me on Twitter because Dominance had had had dropped back and I'm like guys dominance just went up 10 Weeks in a row and this one red week did Not even retrace the 10th green week it Didn't even retrace the 10th green Week so you know I I think one thing to Consider when it comes to Total 3 minus USD divided by Bitcoin is you know what Happens If the spot ETF gets approved or Something and and we see this this pump On bitcoin continue into you know I Don't know how long it'll it'll it'll Last it breaks all Bitcoin pairs off of Their support levels and then it rolls

Over you know and we get a correction Sometime before the having and um and Then that's when altcoin start to bottom Out against Bitcoin once the FED goes to Looser monetary policy I'm not saying That altcoins aren't going to do well in Their USD pairs between now and then They could some of them have probably Already bottomed on their USD pairs uh But the point is that they probably are Still bleeding against Bitcoin know when Bitcoin moves like This the alt Market just I mean it it Can't it can't compete in the same way Look at this like Bitcoin is up 2 and a Half percent today a lot of these other A lot of these altcoins are not up 2 and A half percent right they're it's less Than 2 and a half per. they just they Cannot compete with Bitcoin when it's Moving this quickly and so what happens Is the dominance of Bitcoin just goes Higher the argument is that Bitcoin Dominance goes up no matter the Direction of Bitcoin USD that's the Argument right if Bitcoin goes up great Dominance goes up if Bitcoin goes down Great dominance goes Up it goes up no matter what that's the Point think about these 10 green weeks By dominance 10 green weeks in a row Bitcoin USD was not green for those 10 Weeks right Bitcoin USD had three red Weeks here and then another red week and

Then two more right so six I believe six Of those 10 weeks were actually red for Bitcoin USD but they were still green For Bitcoin dominance so more than half Bitcoin went down but Bitcoin dominance Still went Up So you know I I I I me that's what we Have to look for I mean look on for for Bitcoin USD you know there's really no I I can't tell you where I have no idea Where it's going to top out in the short Term right I mean it seems like it's Trying to break out of this trend line Here if it does I imagine that would Elicit some fomo if it doesn't then you Know then watch out below right if it Does break above this and and and sort Of go higher then you're likely going to Very quickly see total three minus USD Divided by Bitcoin you're likely going To see that break down and the issue is That then if Bitcoin USD you know finds Some type of local top for a few months And then rolls over The the argument is that alt will not be Able to reclaim this level potentially Not until the post having year that's The argument right is that they can't Necessarily reclaim this level until the Post having year if they in fact break Down so that's kind of where I am on the Altcoin market with respect to bitcoin Is that the king is likely going to

Outperform them until we get to lucier Monetary policy it doesn't mean they Can't go up on their USD pairs I will Keep saying it it doesn't mean they Can't but it just means that most of Them have bled back to bitcoin one of The most common responses to these Videos that I see is like oh well I wish I bought this altcoin because it's up 20% this week guys I'm not here to tell You what to do I'm telling you my Strategy and I'm trying to provide the Rationale for it But if you want to go be a Dean in the Altcoin market go do it right what's Right for me is not what's right for you You know crypto is a a personal Journey Right what investing is a personal Journey what's right for you is not What's right for someone else if someone Sells all their all their Bitcoin at at A certain price and you laugh at them Because the price goes higher that's not The right thing to do you know maybe They didn't want to take on as much risk As you back in 2021 I sold a lot of my Bitcoin into That first Peak into this first Peak I Mean it's all documented on ITC premium Like it's all documented I sold a lot of My Bitcoin into this this first Peak 87% In fact of my Bitcoin and I mean gosh I Was getting mocked like crazy even on There because everyone was saying well

Bitcoin is going to 300K why why you Sell 87% of it is because the risk Levels were at 0.95 I'm like guys it's Not going to go it's not going to go up Forever so yeah I mean I sold I sold a Lot all the way up and I converted into Into eth and ALT because that's where All season comes from after Bitcoin hits New Highs the issue is that if you get a Rally like this this where Bitcoin Doesn't hit new highs then altcoins get Crushed in that phase right but if you Get new highs then altcoins can go up a Lot More So and then on the same thing with the Risk levels I I DCA in this region and Again it's I mean look it's all Documented on on ITC premium and I I Said I've said many times that like DCA Is the only way I I'm navigate Bitcoin According to the risk levels that's the Only way I I I don't really try to time The market I just CCA when it hits these Certain risk levels and that's it and I And I wait until it goes up to a either If it goes up to a high enough risk Level I'll sell if it goes back down to A lower risk level I'll buy but that's All I Do so again for me you know my strategy Is still thinking that the Bitcoin Dominance is going to go higher I think

That you know once we get into the Having year I will I will probably start To you know not be as vocal about these Views because I don't expect dominance To go up forever right people say I'm a Maxi but I'm not um I I don't expect Bitcoin dominance to go up forever but I Do expect it to you know to go up um you Know probably for the rest of the year Off and on right Ian it doesn't Necessarily mean it has to put in a new High this year although it certainly Could um if you were to go look At at at um year-to dat Roi Of Bitcoin dominance without stable Coins one of the things we said in a Prior video was that if you average out 2015 and 2019 and compare that to 2023 we said Look guys we're likely going to close This Gap we closed it right the last Video or maybe two videos ago on Dominance we we showed this chart when Dominance was all the way down here and I said we're likely going to close this Gap and we did on Day um day 297 the year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables was At 1.22 which is exactly what the Average was from the last two prehab Years so I think it likely could just Keep going up into the end of the year And in the year at around 1.25x off the Yearly open for reference right now it's

Sitting at around 1.8x off the yearly Open so it could move up you know a few Percentage points before the year is Even over potentially and it it likely Would if Bitcoin you know if if Bitcoin Um if it can break through this Resistance level on total 3 minus usct Divided by Bitcoin right so if it can Break through here if it can break this Then guess where support is it's all the Way down here at 25% and 25% from here is a 42% drop by The altcoin Market against Bitcoin I I mean it it would wouldn't be Surprising I mean that's what it did Last cycle right it bounced it bounced Again it rolled over when it rolled over When it rolled Over that marked when it broke through Here the month that it broke through That's the month the bitcoin's yearly High was in okay so I thought that the Yearly high for Bitcoin was likely in During the summer months okay that's That was my assumption I'm not going to Pretend like it wasn't I I thought the Yearly high was probably in starting This year I said Bitcoin will likely go As high as 35k I was wrong right I mean it's it's Above 36k right now but that was my view Going into the year I mean when you know When you start the year at Bitcoin was

Less than $177,000 to say that it could go as high As 35k and then to sort of get people to Dunk on me now that it's like 36k I mean It's it's it's kind of hard right I mean There's no way I can possibly know Exactly where the high is going to be And for all I know it could it could Continue going up in the short term So when you look at this chart if Bitcoin can break alts off of their Bitcoin support levels then you can see Where the you know where the next Support is for the allcoin market it's a Lot further down it's a big if right It's a big if and I mean you could argue That if if there's like a soft landing And we don't get harder Economic Times Then then maybe it'll hold but my view Is that this will break down that's my View that it'll it'll break down just Like it broke down over here by the way Last time when when it broke down the Second attempt was in in May and then it Successfully broke it in June here this Attempt was in October maybe it'll Successfully break down in this month in November but there's multiple ways that It breaks down one way is Bitcoin shoots Up and and all Bitcoin pairs break down The other way is Bitcoin goes down and All Bitcoin pairs go down and all USD Pairs go Down what's interesting is you know if

You look at last cycle if we overlay Bitcoin USD onto this chart And if we overlay interest rates you can See that that Bitcoin topped Out topped out just before the First Rate cut just before the First Rate Cut Right and the terminal rate was already In terminal rate was in just before the First Rate cut is where Bitcoin USD Topped Out what if it's doing the same thing Right what if it's going to top out just Before we get to rate Cuts there's a chance who knows when Rate cuts are going to be I mean the Market doesn't think they're going to be Till next you know till mid next year And maybe they're right I mean maybe They're right but I also know that Um that if the labor market starts to Show weakness then the FED could easily Cut well before summer of 2024 you know There's a lot of people that were very Bearish on on the bond market a couple Weeks ago and um and I I actually picked Up a position because I and i' been I'd Been watching it for a while and I I Thought that you know higher for longer Was getting priced in it wasn't going to Continue to go up forever and the bond Market has has seen a pretty significant Bounce here right I mean look at this Bounce by the bond market you know I did

A video on on um on the on the S&P 500 Outlook and I said look guys Yellen just Issued shorter duration than the market Was expecting that's bullish for both Bonds and stocks I put out a tweet and a Video In July 2023 saying that all or saying that Stocks and bonds were likely going to go Down and they did right I mean TLT Dropped 25% the SNP Dropped 10 or 11% and then on the S&P Outlook video we Said all right yell and issu short it Duration and also the ism came in pretty Bad showing a pretty weak economy that Means lower rates right lowerer rates Longer the yo curve goes back Down and if the long of the Y curve goes Back down risk assets go up right stocks Go up and and so too do bonds and the Reason why bonds go up is because long If the long of the yog curve is going Down bonds are going back Up in the short term when bonds when in The short term when bonds are going down Or sorry when bonds are going up when The long of the Y curve is going down That's bullish for risk assets because It's less pressure on risk assets the Issue is that if the long of the yeld Curve is going down for the wrong

Reasons like the economy is slowing down Then it might take the the it might take Risk assets a few more months to Recognize oh crap like that's why it's Going down it's because something's Fundamentally wrong with the economy and We're about to get a Recession so I mean you know I said it Was both bullish for bonds and stocks You can see it was also bullish for for The altcoin market um and and Bitcoin as Well uh but arguably Bitcoin was you Know doesn't necessarily need it it Wasn't necessarily dependent on that and Bitcoin was already going up before that So I don't really think Bitcoin was Necessarily dependent on that to you Know to do Well So total three minus usct divided by Bitcoin still needs to break down hasn't Done it yet total 2 minus usct divided By Bitcoin it's still pretty elevated and The difference between this one and the One we just looked at is That this is a lower low right it did Not put in a double bottom this is a Lower low right in June it hit 78% and Then in October it hit 71% there's no guarantee that this is The bottom for total 2 minus USD Bitcoin In fact it's probably not it probably Goes a lot lower if we were to fast

Forward like 6 to 12 months I imagine it Will be a lot lower than where it is Right Now but this thing just put in a new low Two weeks ago two weeks ago a new low For this cycle for the entire cycle that We've been watching Total 2 minus USD Bitcoin total two includes eth by the Way total three does not total 2 minus USD Bitcoin shows a new low meaning that Ethereum has been showing weakness it Has you know I mean they might not want To admit it but it has ethereum has been Relatively weak against the altcoin Market because if you only look at the Altcoin market with respect to bitcoin It held this low Now admittedly the altcoin market has Bled a lot more than ethereum so far but When you look at total 2 minus us Bitcoin when you include eth it was a Lower low meaning that eth is Underperforming that's clearly found in The fact that eth dominance continues to Go Down how many times have we been saying That eth dominance is likely putting in Lower highs just like Bitcoin dominance Is over a longer time frame but it's Also putting in higher lows e dominance Has fallen off a cliff Recently speaking of eth what if that's The last major support level to Drop what if that's the last

One do you guys remember this trend line We were Following and I said I said guys look I Know it's a it's a it's a descending Wedge and people say technically it's a Bullish thing but we had the same thing Last cycle and it broke down and I S I Saw some someone say that uh these were These were cope lines because it was Going to break to the upside it broke Down right it broke down just like it Did last cycle why did it break Down because Bitcoin pumped the Bitcoin rally took Ether Bitcoin off of this support Level so where is the final Support right Here this is the last Support you know Um there's a wick all the way down here But you can you know you sort of look at This range here I mean I don't really Like to spend I mean this is like a Single Wick that we barely spend any Time at but I mean this is this is the Support for ether Bitcoin so I imagine What Bitcoin is trying to do is trying To break this Down Right and if it's successful then the Dominance should shoot Up right now ether Bitcoin has some Seasonality to it and I've said all year That ether Bitcoin is likely going to

Bleed in the second half of the year and It's likely going to bleed for most of The year but definitely the second half Of the year go look at monthly uh go Look at quarterly returns For ether Bitcoin every quarter it's been read This year every single quarter in q1 1 115% q28 that's more of a wash Q3 -2.3 Q4 negative almost 15% hinachi candles for The Ether Bitcoin pair the monthly hinachi candles Have been read every single month in 2023 now what I'm looking for with this Is my expectation is that eventually it Breaks down eventually it might not be This year although I think it could be If Bitcoin can get a you know an can if Bitcoin can extend this rally higher Then this could easily break down could Break down even if Bitcoin doesn't Extend the rally but I mean if if Bitcoin does extend the rally higher Then ether Bitcoin could break this Support Level now there is some seasonality to Ether Bitcoin we talk about this Seasonality literally every single year And that sometimes it does show some Renewed strength to against Bitcoin Starting in around December January time Frame sometimes that renewed strength Only lasts like one month sometime it Lasts for a few months but if ether

Bitcoin holds this level for the next Like five weeks or something then There's more Credence given to the idea That it could get a short-term bounce Back up before then rolling over right Now some people are rolling their eyes Like well why can't it just bounce and Hold it could right I'm not going to say That can't it could if anything this Market has taught me um a lot of times When a trade goes your way by the time It's you know by the time that you want To go brag about it it's probably time To sort of take the reverse trade like Last last year I I I you know was very Public that I was um sort of trading my Eth for Bitcoin right here I I bragged About it right here and then the rest is History right it went back up I mean it Was a lower high right but it still went Back up and I had to painfully wait for It to come back down and now it's back Down here right so a huge drop in know In a short period of time if ether Bitcoin holds this level over the next Four to five weeks then it could get a Seasonal bounce right like in in sort of That Janu like here you can see that the Bounce started in late December um here You can see we got a bounce in in in January so I'm looking at this thinking Like okay if this holds then you could See it bounce I even if it bounces I Would still expect it to roll over

That's the I mean that's the issue is That like even if it does Bounce um I it could get rejected here At like 0058 um maybe it goes higher and then it Rolls over maybe it gets rejected by the Bull market support band which is Currently at 05 981 to 06038 um anything's possible but my view On The Ether Bitcoin pair is that this Is a massive distribution phase just Like last cycle and that has been a Theory that a lot of people have very Much disliked but you can see that for The entire year this has been nothing More than a series of lower highs and Lower lows that's all it's been that's All it's ever been this year lower highs And lower lows so you know you could get An example where Bitcoin you know let's Say the spot ETF is approved Bitcoin Rallies some it breaks all Bitcoin pairs Down ether Bitcoin drops into the end of The Year everyone sells their you know Everyone sells their um their their Ether for Bitcoin because ether's Breaking down and then maybe ether sort Of kicks in that seasonal bounce and Then goes back up and then rolls over Again or something right like something Like that could Happen if ether holds this level through The you know through the next couple of Months or so then I would say the

Probability of a bounce back up to the Upside becomes increasingly likely it Doesn't mean that it has to but it would Become increasingly likely the longer it Holds that it could actually get a Bounce back up to the it's kind of like This I mean like that you know it held Here for about a month and after holding For a month it B it bounced back up if If we're in mid December and this an Ether Bitcoin is still at 0052 then I Would say the odds of getting at least a Relief rally into the first part of the Having year go up if it's down here then The odds of a balance in the first part Of the having year are probably even Greater because now it's you know now It's completely sold off back down to Like the .3 to .4 Range if you look at like ether USD you know I mean this thing has been Like the ban of my existence for the Last two years because you know I I'm Still the opinion that it you know it Would be nice if it could go back to its Logarithmic regression trend line it Hasn't done so yet right I mean Bitcoin Did ethereum has not if if Bitcoin does Get a secondary scare eventually before The habing then I imagine that would do It for ethereum but in the short term This is sort of the the track that ether Has been on um and so you know if Bitcoin rallies it can drag the market

Up with it right I mean like if Bitcoin Goes up more of course it can drag Ethereum potentially up to this upper Trend line and then we'll see what Happens there but if Bitcoin sells off Here and let's say like the spot ETF is Denied or or if it's like a sell the News event or something you know the More you tag this trend line the more it Could you know it could break to the Downside um I do want to say something Just because I feel like I'm talking About everything this video you know I've talked a lot about a secondary Scare for Bitcoin so I do want to Address that first of all there's no Guarantee it happens right I mean just To be completely brutally honest there's No guarantee that it happens it might Not happen the reason why I think it Will happen is because every single Prior cycle we've had a 40 to 50% drop In Bitcoin before the having two of the Times it was in the having year that it Occurred right so like if you had to Imagine here in 2012 you know before the Having Bitcoin dropped about 45% in 2015 It dropped about 4 4 6% and then last Cycle I know what you're thinking is Going to say the pandemic forget the Pandemic right just look at this drop Right look at this drop here it dropped 53% so I mean it always has dropped 40 To 50% before the Havoc so far it has

Not dropped that you know that token 40 To 50% drop remember you know some of These drops didn't even occur until the Having year in Prior cycles and also Remember there's no guarantee that it Even happens you know it's always Possible that Bitcoin just r Ries into The recession we you know a lot of times Risk assets just rally into recession And then they might get a massive Selloff into that but there's no Guarantee that it happens um so you have To plan accordingly it's important to Hedge it's a good idea to hedge I've Said this all year it's a good idea to Be hedged for for all potential outcomes But if it does get a secondary scare Like it has for the last three um for The last three Cycles then I you you Know I would imagine that that would be Sufficient to break ether down and to Sort of revisit these other levels again I mean I I I fully understand that if Bitcoin just keeps climbing the wall of Wor for the next six months it's more Likely that ether goes up than down but You know that's sort of what I'm I'm I'm I'm thinking about anyways Um So Bitcoin dominance is now at 53% I think it's going to keep going Higher one of the other ways that I you Could measure this out is to look at got The Fib retracement from this sort of

Breakdown Here last cycle it went all the way back Up to the 618 before it topped Out this Cycle the 618 is around 60% now guys I'm not like Stubborn to the point that like I'm Going to say it has to hit 60% it could Be 61% it could be 62% could be 59 or 58% right but I still think it's likely Heading to that 60% milestone just like It did last cycle that's my view is that It's heading towards 60% what once Seemed like an outrageous claim when Dominance was at 38% probably doesn't Seem like such an outrageous claim Anymore now that it's at 53% and the Reason is because Bitcoin leads the bull Market so if you believe that we are in A bull market taking us to new highs Now Bitcoin leads and the altcoin market Won't really catch up until after Bitcoin hits new highs it doesn't mean That it won't sort of get dragged up Occasionally but it won't really catch Up to bitcoin until Bitcoin hits new Highs and if it's not a bull market Right if we just go back down and Revisit the lows like we did for the Last couple of Cycles right where we Revisit the low here we put in a higher Low in in March of 2020 if something Like that were to happen in the you know

In the next six months Then what do you think happens to alt I Mean they just they they they get Wrecked right I get Wrecked so I mean that's where I am and I know I mean I know a lot of people are Like looking at this think like well There's no way I mean like you know the Altcoin market is is up a lot and you Know I'm looking at these altcoins They're going up very quickly I I get it You know I completely get it um and There's no guarantee there's certainly No guarantee they're going to go put in A new low but I mean I do remember last Cycle you know I was I was dcing uh Bitcoin ethereum link and Ada in in 2019 And 2020 and Um sort of in like you know and and also In 2018 but that was a mistake um at Least for for the altcoin for for Ada it Was but you know I still remember how How it played out for the altcoin market Right like it just felt like it was Never going to end and I mean you can Even see like similarities like in this Move uh for Ada and I I I feel like I Have PTSD from it and maybe that's my Problem that I have to deal with but it You know sort of like these two double This double top these double tops Followed by sort of a you know some some You know attempts to break out Throughout the last part of the having

Year followed by a rally into a Recession right I mean like again is it Going to play out the same way Absolutely not right absolutely not any Type of recession this time which is no Guarantee but if we do get a recession This time then it's probably going to be A very different recession than the one We had in 2020 but you know I mean I Just remember like how brutal it was Right I mean I imagine if you take a bar Pattern on this and you sort of just Compress it because there's less Volatility this cycle than there was Last cycle for for Aya and you just sort Of overlay it I mean you can kind of see Like you can kind of see that that that Same move right like where it it sort of Um yeah like it just sort of you know it Gets this double top it comes down and Then rallies up and then we get a Recession and then all these altcoins Wouldn't put any lows is it going to Play out like that this time probably Not right probably not because you're Not going to get some type of like P pic Style crash um but you could get a crash Due to something else right I mean it Could be due to a more prolonged Recession it could be a slow bleed maybe You don't even get a recession and this Drop never materializes I don't know um But I mean it does go to I mean it just Goes to show that even when you think

There's absolutely no way that the Altcoin market could go put in a new low The altcoin market can't surprise You it's like the Um I mean similar thing with like chain Link chain link didn't put in any new Low chain link was very very bullish um Over here before the uh before the Pandemic dropped but I mean you could Even imagine here right looking at at Link USD throughout this was the uh this Drop right here was the was the pandemic Drop um and you can just sort Of um overlay it right and see that like It it basically made the exact same move And then still went back Down if you're going to come ask me is It going to do the same thing I'm just Going to say no probably not because if We do get a recession it would it would Look very very different than the one we Had in 2020 but I mean it it does go to Show you that the Market will constantly keep you on your Toes right it will constantly keep you On your Toes so when we think about Bitcoin Dominance we must ask ourselves why do We spend so much time talking about this Is it really that important for me it is Because for me it tells me if the Altcoin market is worth the risk or not With respect to bitcoin that's all I Care about I don't care if if my altcoin

Goes and puts in a lower high or a Double top or even a slightly higher High if Bitcoin is out been Outperforming it for the last two years Right what I care about are my risk Adjusted returns and Bitcoin has been by Far the safer and easier play for the Better part of 2 and a half years and That will likely change once we get back To looser monetary policy but it hasn't I don't think it's changed yet Although we should talk about an Invalidation Criteria people someone asked me this on Twitter and and at first I was like you Know come on the more you think about it I mean like it's it's relevant right What is the invalidation criteria to all This stuff for for Bitcoin dominance What would cause me to change my mind Well for one if it were to put put in a A lower low I mean it's been putting in Higher lows all year it's been above the Bull market support band all year except For this Wick down here in in January of 2020 or 2023 if it were to put in a higher low Or sorry if it were to put in a lower Low then I might have to rethink my Theory on on dominance but even if that Happens it would still likely chop Around at these higher levels for Months giving me the ability to convert My Bitcoin to altcoins if I think it's

In a topping process but how do I why Would I think it's in a topping process When every couple of months or so it Just goes and puts in a new high I can't Tell you how many people told me that it Had topped out back in June because of The RSI and and and some type of Divergence or something I don't even Know and then here it went again and put In another higher high right RSI is a Silly indicator to use to tell you if The highs are in I mean it can it can Remain overbought or oversold for months Months before it changes Direction and wouldn't you know it went Higher but why did we say it was going To go higher why did we say 52% was not The High my main reason was I Thought that ether Bitcoin needed to Break down right I I thought this was a Distribution phase and if ether Bitcoin Is breaking down if ethereum dominance Is breaking down the Bitcoin dominance Is going up so how was it possible that 52% could have ever been the High in my mind how was it possible that This could have ever been the high if Ether Bitcoin still needed to break down That was why I thought that and now it's Bro it's been breaking down and Bitcoin Dominance is higher if Bitcoin can pump Long enough to break ether Bitcoin down Or if it dumps and ether Bitcoin drops

Where do you think Bitcoin dominance Goes if ether Bitcoin drops down to like The .3 to 04 range and it might not Happen this year maybe it happens Sometime next year after a seasonal Bounce or Something the dominance of Bitcoin would Only continue to go higher which would Be in agreement with our theory that Dominance goes higher until we get back To looser monetary policy we're not back To looser monetary policy therefore Bitcoin dominance likely goes higher no Matter the direction of Bitcoin USD this Is the thing that I think people think That you know it has to be because Bitcoin goes down guys the dominance Theory has always been that Bitcoin Dominance goes up no matter the Direction of Bitcoin USD no matter what In the bare Market year in the prehab Year you basically get us to looser Monetary policy until then Bitcoin Dominance is likely putting in higher Lows that's my view Right so I follow the Dominance not because I'm a Bitcoin Maxi Not because I I hate altcoins or Anything like like That but it's because it tells me Whether altcoins are worth the Risk with respect to Bitcoin and so far in my mind they have Not

Been and again could you go out and find 10 altcoins to prove me wrong absolutely Absolutely let's go find them together Right go look at link nice move here Right look at xrp higher lows all year Look at most other altcoins they've been Crushed for the better part of two and a Half years against Bitcoin and by the Way link Bitcoin has been crushed you Know I mean yes it's gotten a nice move Here recently but it doesn't changed the Fact that it's been putting in lower Highs since August of 2020 you know I Mean since August of 2020 link Bitcoin Has been putting in lower Highs maybe this will be the time it Breaks out but it hasn't proven itself Yet this is at least somewhat you know You know just to see it sort of break Out of this trend line back tested and Hold the 20we is something but again it Still at this point is a lower High so yes we can go find plenty of Altcoins that would that you could say Had I DCA this as opposed to bitcoin I Would be better Off right but I would again argue that That is survivorship bias for every one That you can find that goes against it I Can probably point out 10 or 50 or 100 That that that that that basically fell Into line into the general thought Process you know that we Had so you know as far as dominance goes

I I would like to see it get to Hopefully back up to 54 55 maybe even 56% over the next couple of months um You know 60% I I I think we probably come but it It might not be until much later in the In the having year I don't know I mean It could of course occur at any time but Um that's the journey I think we're on With Bitcoin dominance and um I think We'll continue to St on that Journey Until we get back to to looser monetary Policy I think we're done I think that Covers it I I I I honestly I don't Sometimes I like doing the Dominus Videos other times I don't like it Because I know people are going to dunk On me on Twitter um and and say and say All sorts of stuff about well if you had You know if you had bought um if you had Bought do At at $35 like you'd be up right or Ada Or whatever and I I just can't help but Think yeah but like I was better off With Bitcoin right better off with Bitcoin and that's been the case for the Last two two and a half years it'll Likely change in the next six months is My guess it'll in the next six months We'll likely see uh not in the next but But sometime at at some point in the Next six months we'll like be the Turning point for all Bitcoin pairs

Right um because you will you know Especially if we get back to looser Monetary Policy and it could come sooner I mean It could come in three months right it Could come in two months I don't know But I imagine that will happen and and When it does happen it'll likely be Because we're looking at at looser Monetary policy and and these riskier Assets can finally start to outperform Bitcoin so before you take to To to dunk on me again um just you know Look at look at bitcoin's Performance compared to a lot of these Other Coins Right here's Doge by the Way that was the recession low for Doge Right I don't know we'll see we'll see We'll see if it goes down there or not But but that's that that's sort of the View here is Um you can dunk on me if you want but um All Bitcoin pairs continue to bleed Bitcoin dominance keeps going higher and Uh Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolios has Been the way to preserve the Satoshi Valuation of your portfolio not a uh you Know a random basket of Altcoins a a a person who was able to Identify the altcoin that would Outperform Bitcoin congrat

Congratulations right congrats most of Them did not props to you for doing so Last cycle I I stuck my neck out and and And got a couple altcoins and and Link Out performed Bitcoin for the prehab Year Ada did not um so it was sort of Like a you know hit I you I was batting 50% with with you know with respect to That um and also ethereum and ethereum Did not either so really I was you know Batting less than that with with all Bitcoin pairs Outperforming but um yeah I think we'll Wrap it up so you know with Bitcoin just Just look to see if it you know if it Does pump look to see if all Bitcoin Pairs break down if it dumps look to see If all Bitcoin pairs break down if it Does go up I mean it likely would drag The altcoin market with it right if you Look at total three you can see that It's sort of coming back in to to these Prior highs that it was back at back in April right that's where it's gone back To which is funny again because Because Bitcoin is way above where it Was in April so wrap it up there thank you guys For tuning in make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up We also do have the sale on end the Cryptoverse premium and end the Crypt.of form Bitcoin so just a fair Warning that my tune on the altcoin

Market will change in the year um it's Just that from my own experience it's Been better off to be heavy Bitcoin in Both you know sort of the bare Market Years and preh having years for whatever Exposure you want to crypto we'll wrap It up there thank you guys for tuning in I'll see you next time bye


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