Bitcoin DCA Simulation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be going through a dollar cost average Or DCA simulation tool if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptiverse premium at into the Cryptiverse.com you should be aware that There are several tiers available with ITC Including a free one okay including a Free one you just have to provide your Email address and the tool the DCA tool That we're going to go through in this Video is available on the free tier The reason is because I think that this Tool Will be you know so educational right That I I think it's worthwhile that Everyone get access to it okay so we're Going to go through systematically a DCA Simulation sometimes we're going to just Look at Bitcoin we're going to also look At some other cryptocurrencies as well And just be honest about how various DCA Strategies or lump sum strategies would Have worked out Some of the time you might not like what I have to say about about certain Strategies but again Don't take it up with me take it up with The data I'm just showing you how this

Stuff works out over the long over the Long term okay So The place that I want to start Is A weekly DCA of Bitcoin of a hundred Dollars had you started doing that at The peak okay so if you had the worst Luck in the world and you joined crypto On the day of the peak and put in a Hundred dollars and said you know what Bitcoin's Gonna Change the World just Going to put in 100 every single week From November 10th 2021 indefinitely Had you done that How would you have fared Interestingly had you done that it would Have included 90 installments of 100 Each totaling nine thousand dollars so That would have been 90 weeks ago which Was the peak What's fascinating is despite the fact That you might have started dca''ing at The peak You would be up 11.41 on your money Through a DCA strategy Even starting at the peak if you had Just kept at it every single week okay And you would have 0.3425 Bitcoin In your portfolio Now what if you had just done a lump sum Strategy that would of course that would Of course be this orange line down here So the DCA strategy is this purple line

And it does show you that for a long Time you would have been down on your Money right like you would have been Losing money your invested amount would Have been more than the current Valuation of your portfolio at that time But at some point you can see that it Crossed and therefore at that point the Portfolio evaluation was actually higher Than the amount you actually put it okay It's kind of interesting uh interesting Way to look at it but had you lump Summed it would have been the orange Line and you would have been down almost Immediately and despite the fact that it Started you know turning back up here in 2023 your portfolio by lump summing at The peak would only be worth four Thousand dollars and these percentages Here show you with respect to a DCA Strategy for Bitcoin it did not show you You know where you'd be with respect to The US dollar it shows you with respect To a DCA strategy for Bitcoin how do you Fare compared to that now work this is a Work in progress okay so please don't be Too critical of it we're gonna we're Gonna try to work some things out but This is at least the initial version We're going to be making some Improvements to it as well So check it out and you can see that A lump sum strategy at the peak would be Inferior to a DCA strategy since then to

The tune of negative 60 right so a DCA Strategy would prove itself to be much Better Now there's this other idea that people Keep saying about the altcoin market now I have been adamant for a year and a Half now ever since 2022 kicked off that The dominance of Bitcoin would be going Up quite a lot And sometimes it can be hard to Understand how important that is If you're not looking at at just how Hard the altcoin market is getting hit So why don't we go through a DCA Strategy For all coins compared to bitcoin over That same time period so let's start With eth I honestly I don't even Consider ethanol but we're going to Start with eth how do you DCA If instead Of Bitcoin your portfolio would still be Up I mean again this negative number you See right here the negative 7.89 that's With respect to the to the DCA Bitcoin Strategy okay we're gonna again we're Gonna work out some of the Kinks here to Make sure that it's a little bit more Intuitive but you'd be up about 235 Dollars Negative eight percent against the DCA Bitcoin strategy right and so it shows You that Bitcoin has been the better Play now it hasn't always felt like that You know I know a lot of people have

Said that eth is has outperformed but it Would have been the better play To add Bitcoin right to DCA Bitcoin over That time period Where it gets really interesting is when You start showing the altcoin market Okay and I'm just going to randomly pick A few not trying to cherry pick any Specific narrative okay I will say going Into this that if you look hard enough Over various time phases throughout the Bear Market or the pre-halving year you Are bound to find some that outperformed Bitcoin there are exceptions to the rule And if you find one you should not Consider that a gotcha moment right That's just part of the cryptoverse There's always some that that outperform Bitcoin but Bitcoin outperforms the vast Majority of all coins and it's so hard To know going in which ones which alt Will underperform or which ones will Over outperform Bitcoin most of them Will underperform over a long enough Time period Some of them will outperform over over Certain time periods so let's go through I'm just going to pick some random ones Okay uh there's cardano we got Solana uh There's polka dot we could you know I Mean I I'll pick a few others Avalanche Um chain link I know that was that's one That I've you know I know people are Interested in

Um we can maybe pick some lower market Cap cryptocurrencies as well V chain Um what are some other what are some Other ones that that would be trying to Think what other ones Ave let's just Start there let's just start there and See how this would have performed what Do you notice The first thing you notice the only two That are above this green line so the Green line again is just the DCA 100 a Week okay that's what you're putting Into the market the only two portfolios That are in the money Are Bitcoin and Eve Every other coin had you DCA it starting At bitcoin's Peak You would be down With respect to Bitcoins DCA strategy Avax would be down 45 percent polka dot Would be down 40 percent cardano would Be down 39 V chained on 38 Ave down 27 Solana down 27 and chain link down 18 Percent And ease down eight percent against the DCA Bitcoin strategy Now at any given point during 2022 or 2023 you could point to a period where That altcoin maybe was outperforming Right you could I mean again like There's think about how many times People have called for all season over The last year and a half and think about How many times they were right okay

You don't have to count very high Look at the chart it shows you just how Much the altcoin market gets wrecked Against Bitcoin Your Bitcoin portfolio Is up even though you might have started DCA and get at the peak But if you kept at it it would have Worked out and that's why understanding Where the Bitcoin dominance is going to Go is so important If and when we get to the point where we Think the Bitcoin dominance is topped Out I'm not there okay I think the Dominance is still going to go higher But if and when you get to that point if You think that the dominance has topped Out that is where the altcoin market can Give you oversized gains but the Difficult part is for people to wait Sufficiently long enough to start Getting into the altcoin market because They get into alts and they just keep Seeing them go lower and lower and lower And lower where they would have just Been better off sticking a Bitcoin now Bitcoin is up right now like this Strategy would be up right now three Months from now even the Bitcoin Strategy could theoretically be Underwater for all we know I would expect at some point before the Having we could have a secondary scare In the market

That typically happens so don't be Surprised if that happens and even a Bitcoin portfolio could go underwater Again but if this chart teaches you Anything it's that even if you started Dcing it at the peak as long as you kept At it and didn't give up you would Eventually been in the money right and That's what the context of History shows Us with Bitcoin is that if you just kept At it you'd eventually been okay it's Just a lot of people they they only DCA At the peak and then they capitulate at The bottom okay so remember a DCA Strategy tends to work out over the Long Haul That's true okay Now rather than take the peak why don't We take another example right let's say You started doing it in January 1st of 2022 does it make a difference no it Does not every single altcoin DCA Strategy even starting from January 1st 2022 would be underwater It's interesting right I mean it's Interesting it shows you that they would All the ones at least we have pulled out Right would all be underwater compared Not only to the USD evaluation of of the Money invested Because again you can see the 8300 would Have been invested over that time period And if you look at this table here the Only two that are above the investment

Amount are Bitcoin and eth now let's go A little bit further out and see if it Makes a difference because at some point It probably will make a difference right Let's look at April 1st of 2022. does it Make a difference Bitcoin still in the lead eth is number Two Link is the only altcoin out of those Selected That is is above the invested amount all The other altcoins on here are below the Invested amount Because again they're below seven Thousand dollars which is the total Investment We could go further out right why not Why don't we go out to August 1st of 2022. Here Bitcoin Is in the lead And guess what else is in the lead Overeath a lump sum into Bitcoin so in This case had you dca'd starting August 1st Not only was a DCA Bitcoin strategy Better than all the all coins we have on Here but also a lump sum Bitcoin Strategy was better than a DCA eth Strategy because eth has been bleeding Against Bitcoin people keep telling me The chart is bullish but it's just lower Highs and lower lows right it's just Lower highs and lower lows ever since

The merge and this shows you that Yes you would be in the money Because your eth portfolio would be Worth 60 62.88 and you would only invest In fifty three hundred dollars but your Bitcoin portfolio Would be worth about almost seven Thousand dollars again the eth DCA Strategy would have been inferior to the Bitcoin DCA strategy to the tune of 9.19 percent This is a really important way to look At the market Let's carry on let's look at let's go to Starting January 1st of 2023 why don't We look at that and see see what's what And who's who okay January 1st 2023. Now what's going on in this situation In this situation the one that's in the Lead is lump sum Bitcoin The one that's second in this case is Solana why is Solana in the lead in this Case because you're basically cherry Picking the low right so if you if you Would YOLO into that all right at the Bottom then it would it would have Outperformed or if you had just started Dcing it there front at the bottom it Would have outperformed Bitcoin Since 2023 started but even in that case A lump sum strategy would have been a Lot better just in the Bitcoin Okay a long storm strategy would have

Been better you would have invested 3 100 okay but in this case A lump sum Bitcoin would be worth now 54.62 And the Solana DCA strategy would only Be outperforming the Bitcoin DCA Strategy since that date By about 3.77 percent Every other lot you see on there would Still be down now the reason that Solana Sticks out there is because they got so It got hit so hard in the FTX collapse Right it went it was like down what like Well more than 90 or so so it shows you That you know if you if you cherry pick The low yes it can work out but if you Admit to yourself hey we don't know Exactly where the load is going to be For any individual coin Bitcoin tends to Stand the test of time this shows you Just how Superior this can be now does This hold true throughout all of history No it does not okay Let Me Show an example Let's go look at the same stuff And I'm going to get rid of all these All coins because I want to start Cleaning here because not all these all Coins existed back as far as we're gonna Go Let's suppose You started A strategy In

I'm trying to think about how far back We want to go We could we could go back to 2019 Let's say Let's start 2020. let's start 2020. Let's suppose you started January 1st of 2020. Okay and you dc8 Bitcoin what would Happen in this case in this case a lump Sum strategy would have been far Superior why is that because in this Case and by the way this would be Further along in the cycle than where we Currently are because again we're Talking about January 1st of 2020 if if You believe in the four-year cycle Narrative right that would correspond to Maybe January 1st of 2024 or plus or Minus a month or two Because the having is not exactly every Four years in this case a lump sum Bitcoin strategy so if you would you Would have invested eighteen thousand Seven hundred dollars over the last 187 Weeks that would currently be worth Twenty eight thousand four hundred and Forty eight dollars along some strategy Back then would now be worth seventy Four thousand four hundred and eighty Nine dollars It's it's it's it's Quite a useful way to look at the market Now in this case had you waited and you

Didn't buy eth in the 2018 bear market And you ignored it in the 2019 Prehabbing year where it also got Wrecked against Bitcoin for basically The entire year And you just started dcaing eth in January of the having year how would That have performed against Bitcoin In this case You can see that a lump saw and again We're not comparing lump sum eth here Again There's a lot of there's a lot of Kinks To work out in this in the in and you Can also there's a lump sum tab you can Look at but we're just going through the Basics here a lump sum Bitcoin strategy Would still be work would have still Been better than a dcae strategy but it Shows you that a dcae strategy starting January of the having year would have Outperformed a DCA Bitcoin strategy by 82.81 percent Throw on cardano Cardano would have outperformed a DCA Bitcoin strategy by 14.64 percent The hard part though is to wait it's so Hard to wait right People on a front run it and and they Just they keep buying all coins all the Way down And then eventually The last person who's going to Capitulate finally converts all their

Alts to bitcoin and then that can Potentially Mark those lows for those All Bitcoin pairs The altcoin market excels during excess Liquidity conditions That's where it excels we're not in that Regime right now right we're not in that We're not in that period When liquidity has been taken away Bitcoin outperforms the altcoin market When Bitcoin goes down the Auckland Market goes down more when Bitcoin goes Up the altcoin market lags behind So people call me a Bitcoin Maxi all the Time you know and I don't really know What to say you know sometimes I won't Say well thanks I mean you know the Other strategies over the last year and A half would have been inferior but There's another part of me that wants to Say you know what For me It's just about what the data says You know you can lead the narrative at The door I don't really care about that You can call me what you want to call me But when it comes to the data It has and continues to suggest that Bitcoin dominance goes up in the bear Market year and in the prehabbing year And for those who are just simply able To take a cold shower anytime they Wanted to buy an altcoin over the last 18 months and instead focused their

Crypto portfolio on bitcoin instead they Would have significantly outperformed Most all coins That will not be true forever okay There will come a time and I think that Inflection point could be coming in the Next Three to eight months let's just say Three to eight months Where you can find all coins a DC Altcoin strategy could start Outperforming a DCA Bitcoin strategy but The only reason it would occur is Because the altcoin market is so is so Far down that if if we even get the Slightest sense of liquidity returning Back to the market those lot coins can Start can start moving again Over the Long Haul Bitcoin will still likely outperform Most all coins if you think about it Over multiple Cycles like if you were to Say what is going to outperform Bitcoin or new altcoin that is is is Taking advantage of the most recent Narrative for that cycle it could very Well be that all coin but if you were to Say what's going to perform better over The next three Cycles I would say well Maybe that all coin would perform better Over the first cycle and and maybe it Would start to flatten out against Bitcoin the second cycle by the third Cycle just sticking with Bitcoin would

Have probably outperformed right So that's something you have to consider As well maybe we can find an example of That let's go back even further so let's Go back to 2013. 2013. Now we're going to compare Bitcoin Because we've got to find coins that Actually exist back then let's look at Litecoin and it and it pulls up the Starting date here of April 27th 2013. Let me switch this to a log scale Now in this case Lumps on bitcoin would obviously have Been the best why is that well if you're Talking about a hundred dollars a week Since 2013 that's fifty three thousand Six hundred dollars over 536 Installments right clearly it would have Been better to just YOLO in that case to Or to to lump sum 53k back when Bitcoin Was you know only only trading for Um you know hundreds of dollars okay So There's clearly a difference but when You go you know far enough back that Lump sum can often outperform a DCA Strategy over that same time period But what's interesting is when you first Start off you can see that Bitcoin and Litecoin are are more or less the same In terms of in terms of what they give You back right there's not a huge Difference there and it and at this

Point Litecoin was in the lead right at This point you would have invested 4200 Your Litecoin portfolio would have been Worth 19k your Bitcoin portfolio would Have been only worth 17K But as you go further the Bitcoin Portfolio takes over and then it's 18 000 for your Bitcoin portfolio and only 10K for your Litecoin portfolio and you Would only invest in 6 300. so your Bitcoin portfolio would have been up Like 3x and your Litecoin portfolio Would have only been up less than 2x but In the next cycle In the next cycle you can see that they Sort of flip-flop around okay so let's Just let's get our bearings here Bitcoin Is the purple line okay the orange line Is not so the the upper orange line up Here is the lumps on bitcoin the lower Orange line is the Litecoin DCA strategy So you can see that for a while Litecoin Was keeping up in the first and second Cycle but what happened by cycle three Bitcoin it just it it widened the Gap Okay and so now a DCA strategy in Bitcoin Hold on to your hat right but a a 100 DCA strategy a week since 2013. Would now be worth 2.1 million dollars Litecoin your portfolio Would be worth 595 000 now you would Have only invested and I say only right But you would have invested 53 600

During those like ten years you so you Would have invested just over 50 50k Over that 10-year time frame Your Litecoin portfolio would be up I Guess here going to the last date about 600 600k so you're so your Litecoin Portfolio would be worth around 600k so You're out more than 10x right but your Bitcoin portfolio would be up three Times more than your Litecoin portfolio Now being up 10x is great but Being up 30X Is better right what's better 10x or 30 Because I mean 10x you're not going to Cry yourself to sleep if you're up 10x But had you just stuck with the safer Asset right Bitcoin you would have been Up a lot more So that is the example when we talk About all coins how for a cycle or two The altcoin might keep Pace with Bitcoin Right like one cycle maybe it Outperforms the second cycle it kind of Levels off against it by the third cycle Bitcoin's normally outperforming Bitcoin is number one for a reason okay It's it's number one for a reason it's Not a fluke and it's probably not going To change anytime soon so Go through this strategy for different Altcoins and just see how some of them Outperform for a time but then Eventually they tend to fade against

Bitcoin if you can find an altcoin that That either outperforms or keeps Pace With Bitcoin for a couple of Cycles then Hey that's you're making progress there Right But this is an important thing for you To consider most altcoins while they Might all perform Bitcoin for a cycle or Two they tend to not outperform for much Longer than that that doesn't mean you Know that doesn't mean that it's not Worthwhile to potentially you know take A position right I'm not trying to Provide any Financial advice or anything I'm just saying that if if you're going To sit there and come up with the DCA Strategy and then just tune out for 10 Years Bitcoin has been the better play When you compare it to most all coins if You look at any individual cycle Sure you can find all coins to not Perform But we need to understand The strategies and how the DCA strategy Compares to the lump sum strategy and How the DCA Bitcoin strategy compares to The dcae strategy versus the DCA altcoin Strategy the DCA altcoin strategy can Work out for all coins that don't Fade Into the Depths of the cryptiverse Because there are many altcoins that you Could look at back in 2020 that if you Would start a dcing them even at even in The having year Bitcoin would have still

Outperformed then because that altcoin Became a relic of the cycle before it And it never recovered because there Were new shiny all coins in the next Cycle that people cared about so there's A there's an element of survivorship Bias we only look at the coins that are Still around because of those are the Ones that people are interested in But if you were to go back and look at The top 100 back in 2020 I guarantee you Or I mean you'll likely find several Altcoins that underperformed Bitcoin Since then even though it was going into A a Um you know a like a lot of excess Liquidity environment because people Just didn't care about them anymore There was something else to care about So hopefully this tool can be valuable To you remember You can access this tool via the free Plan you don't need a paid subscription To access this tool now we're probably Going to add some new features to the Tool that are related to the risk Metrics and whatnot which you can't Access on the free plan but if all you Want to do is is look at various Strategies compared to and look at Various cryptocurrencies here and see How they compare You have the ability to do that and the Other cool thing is that you can

Actually copy the link when you get this And you can share it with people and say Hey like look how this one would work Out and they can click on it and as long As they have and as long as they have a Um as long as they have a like as long As they're all in the free plan they can Go look at it as well Hopefully you guys enjoy this and if you Scroll down it'll it'll actually show You so let me let me show you one more Thing So like let's just go look here at a at A Bitcoin strategy let's say starting April 27 2022 whatever It'll show you you know the date the the The price at the time how much you would Have accumulated how much you would have Invested so it keeps track of how much You would have invested and also the Portfolio evaluation at that time and You can see that for a while right You're underwater you're underwater for A while But then at some point At some point It changes right at some point it Changes and it looks like that point is Right around here right around here Where the portfolio evaluation is now Worth more than how much you've invested So make sure you check this out Into the cryptiverse.com And play around with it see what you

Think Find some all coins that outperform Bitcoin there's going to be some Um but you'll see time and time again That most of them underperform over a Long enough time Horizon thank you guys For tuning in make sure you subscribe if You're not subscribed give the video a Thumbs up and I'll see you guys next Time bye