Bitcoin: Comparing Capitulations

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin And we're going to follow up on the Capitulation idea that we talked about Several weeks ago if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Cryptiverse premium at into the again we did Just Launch Some tiers so you can make sure to check That out if you haven't already we will Run the Black Friday sale through the End of the month now if you're Unfamiliar with the topic of this video We discussed this idea of will Bitcoin Capitulate a number of times over the Last several months uh in general Suspicion that June was in fact not the Low for the cycle we you know we put out A video not too long ago talking about Will Bitcoin capitulate and the reason Is because we were sort of just drawing The same comparisons to what was going On in you know 2022 to to really what Was going on in 2018 and now that it has Broken out to the downside I wanted to Provide an updated video right I mean it Seems Seems prudent to say all right Well we talked about this likely Scenario a few weeks ago we in fact have Had a new low where is the price today Right

So again if you're not familiar with This general idea and we've talked about This many times is that in these bear Markets you will often see these higher Lows and and everyone always gets Excited about these higher lows because You know we can say well technically Speaking they're putting in you know the Assets holding up relatively well a lot Of times people start saying that it Ends up going in the in the in the Direction that you don't really want it To because these higher lows uh okay can Often not really mean what you think They're going to mean I mean one way to Interpret it as as I'm sure many people Have have followed is the idea of just All these um uh you know like these bear Flags if I'm sorry if I can actually Draw it but these these um Bear flags that you know occur at at Various levels right so just because You're putting in a higher low for a While doesn't really necessarily mean Anything because they can often break Out to the downside and we we've seen That happen Once again So one of the things that we talked About in that video when we talked about Will Bitcoin capitulate we we drew out The similarities right between what was Going on in this bear market and what Was going on in the primary Market again

If you compare the bear markets the Green line is where we currently are Right this is the current bear Market That we're in compared to 2018 and the Orange line and then 2014 the red line And again as we discussed in that video Just a few weeks ago The similarities involved the initial Capitulation down to the June bottom Right to the June bottom and then Putting in higher lows until the bottom Fell out right until the bottom fell out And it fell out in mid-november and Again you know I mean it's not it really Is a very similar pattern right I mean A local bottom in June everyone thinks The Bottom's end Put in higher lows for a while and then We we capitulate and the capitulation Started again Mid-november so again these these Similarities are are playing out quite Well again if you want to if you want to Go back and watch this video it might be Worthwhile to do so because we talked a Bit more in depth about all the Different similarities between 2018 and 2022 and and why you should be cautious About calling June the bottom when a lot Of these same patterns are playing out In a very similar fashion now that we've Actually broken down below I suppose we should talk about that a Little bit one thing we could say is

That despite the fact that Bitcoin has Broken to the downside it hasn't seen at Least not yet right it hasn't seen the Type of Swift capitulation that we Experienced back in 2018 I mean you know We did hold for a few days here and then We continued on down so far this cycle At least up till this point you can see That Bitcoin is putting up a a bit more Of a fight right it is putting up a bit More of a fight But another thing I was looking at too Is that if you if you sort of draw out And again this is dubious speculation at Best but if you draw out sort of these Higher lows and then you you find where It crossed the 200-day right the sort of These higher lows and then where where That trend line ultimately crossed the 200-day SMA if you were to draw a line Through that it actually marked the Market cycle bottom uh basically to the Day I mean more or less it marks the Mark's cycle bottom and so again if you Try to take this to the bank and cash it In again I guarantee you they will not Accept it right they're going to laugh At you they'll laugh you out of the bank So don't try to do it uh there's there's Actually a really great chance that this Is not going to play out in the exact Same way but considering that you know We talked about the similarities played Out in the exact same way might as well

Continue talking about it until proven Otherwise so if we were to follow this Same pattern What would that look like right what Would that look like for the current Market cycle and what would the Implications be for a potential future Market cycle bottom of course this would Assume Sorry I have a cold this would assume That the bottom is not in uh which again I mean you can always make the case for And I mean so far in 2022 obviously Making the case for the bottom has has Has not really served anyone anyone that Well that's why at the beginning of the Year we said look don't spend too much Your mental energy trying to call a Bottom in 2022. first of all whoever who I mean the actual bottom most people Aren't going to buy anyway so you really Shouldn't spend so much mental energy on It but second of all when you're in a Bear Market You just give it a little bit more time And we tend to go lower right So Um that's the general idea but again if You were to follow a similar type of Pattern here and you know we could sort Of extrapolate out perhaps the 200-day SMA if it were to sort of continue on Down on its current trajectory where Might it cross this trend line

So if I sort of just connect these lows And try to be somewhat conservative About it you can see that it would cross Somewhere late December I mean right Around Christmas honestly right around December 25th December 26th December 27th around the holidays is actually Where it would cross and so you know I I Don't I can't really say for sure Obviously if it's going to play out in The exact same fashion but I will say This right I will say this You know this bear Market has been going On for over a year now and historically Bear markets for Bitcoin last about a Year okay The one in 2014 lasted 14 months and the One in 2018 lasted about 12 months So in that context You could argue that We're we're well within the window as to When bottoms typically occur in terms of Time we know from the 2013 The the bear Market that was really Started in late 2013 and lasted until Early 2015. it lasted for 14 months Um so we do of course have to recognize That and and the implications that that I mean the spare Market could in fact Last until sometime in 2023 right if the 2014 bear can last till 2015 the 2022 Bear could last until 2023. it's it's Just you know something we have to Consider But

Um you know this there do continue to be You know similarities here And so I think it's worthwhile to to Follow until it until they deviate right Until they deviate And again you could make the case you Could try to make the case that they Already are starting to deviate you're Not really seeing that sustained Breakdown just yet it doesn't mean we Won't get it right I mean like in the Next week we could see it break back to The downside and and this just be one of Those one of those Um pumps that gets everyone a YOLO back In because they're they're promised the Moon once again if you go if you zoom in So 2018 just to give you an idea of of What it was like uh we actually had Several pumps I mean this first pump was About nine percent or so okay About a nine percent pump Um from this Wick here to this move here It was about a 14 to 15 pump and then This move down here up to this was about A 27 pump and none of them marked the Bottom right none of them actually Marked the bottom we then had this pump Right here that was about 12 or 13 and Then finally we got a bottom right and And during that phase you know we had a Nine percent move to the upside of 15 a 14 to 15 move a 27 to 28 move and then a 12 to 13 move and none of them actually

Marked the bottom right even though you Could have argued every single time I'm Sure every single time someone would Have argued that the bottom was in fact In and so right now you know we've had We briefly had this you know 16 move to The upside and we came back down and put In a new low as of two days ago But now we're looking at another seven To eight percent move to the upside so Again just because you get these moves Back up to the upside doesn't Necessarily mean that that the bottom Has to be in I mean history shows us This year that patience has often been Rewarded right and and again one of the Things we've talked about on length is That And we've said this every step of the Way is that even once the bottom is Reached whenever that is you're still Likely going to spend a decent amount of Time at rather suppressed prices I've Seen a lot of comments from people uh You know even yesterday When the price like moved back up to 16.2 K and and people were sort of upset That they you know that they missed what They might consider now to be the bottom Right is is so now the new bottom is at 15.4 K and and I I saw some some general Sentiment it's interesting because no Matter how low we go as long as Bitcoin Pumps you know a few percent the next

Day everyone's gonna constantly wonder Is the bottom in or not and you know one Of the one of the things uh that I I Like to remind people is that if at any Point you feel the conviction that the Bottom is in right whether it's now Whether it's a three weeks from now at a Potentially lower price even if it's off The bottom by a few percent like it Doesn't really matter right like anyone Who were to buy right now uh 16 7 is Still getting a better deal than Basically anyone who bought during the Summer right and a lot of people thought The bottom was in back then so so It's sort of like you know it's sort of Like um you know someone complaining That they bought Bitcoin you know here Rather than here or during the downtrend Before the bottom was actually in right Like complaining that uh they bought it Here as opposed to here or something so Just remember that that these the you Know bear Market endings can can play a Ton of tricks on you and and you though You'll constantly be second guessing Every everything every step of the way But I will say you know if you if you Look at if you look at all the historic Bottoms for Bitcoin One other thing you'll one of the things You'll notice is that we're entering We're entering into sort of the Seasonality of when they normally occur

Um the first one was in November Right so November 2011 this one over Here was in January of 2015 and then This one over here was in December of 2018. and right now we're in December of 2022. so or sorry we're in November of 2022 but we're quickly approaching December 2022 in just about a week or so So I mean again you have November January December is it a coincidence I Mean it certainly could be but I think I I think people really need to be paying Attention over the next over the next Few months because Um I think we'll likely look back at Sort of this this season in general and And talk about it in the in the in the Distant future as the typical you know Bottoming season for Bitcoin getting the Exact price on the exact day is Obviously going to be a very hard thing To do and we've talked about you know All the bottoming indicators before And the levels that you know different Indicators would have to get to before They would say that the bottom is in Um it all depends on how you know how Greedy you want to be in terms of uh you Know being patient uh or just how Risk-averse I mean I still would argue That Um the overall macro uh scenario doesn't Necessarily look that great but I mean Even even in that sense I mean it

Doesn't necessarily mean that that you You can't see short-term moves back up To the upside we've seen this all Throughout 2022 right every you know Every step of the way but again I mean You know I think it's interesting to Look at the 200-day SMA And potentially look to see when it Crosses this trend line not to say that It has to Mark the bottom but just to Say that hey you know what last cycle it Marked the bottom and also last cycle we Also had that local bottom in June with The capitulation starting in Mid-november and we had the local bottom In June here with the with the with the New lower low coming in mid-november it Seems prudent to continue carrying out This you know these these comparisons to The 2018 bear Market especially in the 2014 bear Market especially when they Continue to have so many similarities Thank you guys for tuning in remember do You have the sub the the sale the Black Friday sale on the into the crypto Versus premium make sure you check it Out we do have tiers now so you can Subscribe lock and low rate and you have Until the end of the month thank you Guys for tuning in subscribe and I'll See you guys next time bye


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