Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium out into the we do have several Different tiers available one of which Is free make sure you check it out link Is in the description below that sales Ending today let's go ahead and jump in Now we have often spoken about the bull Market support band of course we talk About a lot more frequently in a bull Market as opposed to a bear market and As we've said many times it's probably Better off thought of as a bear Market Resistance band in a bear Market or as I Saw someone put it recently the bear Market recession banned right Of course there is no guarantee that we Get a recession but there is that that Out you know that outlying risk that it It does in fact occur based on the Inversion of the yield curve and and Recession probabilities and all these Things we've spoken about on the channel Now one of the reasons why I like this This resistance band or support band is Because it actually does a pretty good Job of just outlining whether we're in a

Bull market or whether we're in a bear Market right and you know what it's also One of those things that had you Essentially just use this for a lot of This you know for the lot of the last Year it would have done a fairly good Job of informing you that the bear Market was in fact not over now there Was one time we broke above it But we actually talked extensively about That breakout and said that if you see No follow-through on this and we just Resolved the downside within the next One to two weeks then it just simply is A false breakout and we've had those Before so when you get above it you need To see follow through right and we we Did not get that back over here in April And if you remember one of the things we Talked a lot about back then was you Know the idea of of putting in higher Lows and ultimately just simply getting Rejected off the 200-day SMA right then The reason we talked about it back then Was because it was a very similar Pattern as to what we saw in 2018 right It was like a a low a higher low a Rejection off the 200-day SMA and then a Failure to put in a higher low and then We resolve to the downside into the Range that took us from June until November right so the June marked this Local low which of course a lot of People put a lot of a lot of their um

Uh you know they put a lot of Credibility on on this being the actual Cycle bottom when you know we said many Times that it it typically you know what Typically happens in the summer is that A lot of people think it's the bottom And a lot of people will sort of rally Into the altcoin market in the third Quarter of the year but oftentimes it Still resolves the downside and you can See that it resolved to the downside Here in November and in the same way we Had you know a very similar pattern Right I mean you had the low the higher Low the rejection off the 200-day and Then the failure to put in a higher low And then a resolution to the downside And then at this point we eventually Came down into June And then it ended up being our base Until when Until mid November right until sometime In early to mid-november and then we Broke below Very similar right very very similar Outline uh you know in in both bear Markets and So I do think there is some validity to Using the 200-day SMA in addition to the Bull market support bin so we're going To talk a little bit about that later But but the 200-day estimate is I I Think a really a really great tool to Use especially in a bear Market in a

Bull market you know I mean we we could Often just spend a long time well above It Um and it's not necessarily that Informative but in a bear Market it Actually is quite useful right you'll See these rejections off of it and and We actually saw more projections off of It when you look at like the entire Market as a whole like if you look at if You look at total the total crypto Market cap you'll see us you'll see us Coming up closer to that 200-day if you Look at say like total three which is The altcoin market you'll see something Similar right just these rejections off Of the 200-day SMA so then what I want To talk about now is is going back to to Where Bitcoin currently is so right now Bitcoin's trading for you know just Below 17.4 thousand dollars we have been Slowly moving up oh over the past couple Of months from November okay the main Difference so far I suppose from this Breakdown and this one is that clearly This one was a lot more significant in 2018 right so we have to at least be Somewhat cognizant of that you know this This rally this 4X rally that came after It was also partially fueled by a a 53 Drop 52 to 53 drop but this time at Least so far this drop has only been About like 24 25 like it hasn't been Nearly as significant as to what we saw

Back in you know back in in 2018 so we Need to keep that in mind as we as we Continue to navigate this furthermore Back over here we were holding support At the 200 week which is interesting Because now we're of course well below It Um but if you pull back up that bull Market sport band you'll note that the Current range on it is eighteen thousand Three forty two to nineteen thousand one Ten So I mean this is the Line in the Sand Right I mean the line of sand is Constantly changing And of course you know using something Like this essentially it allows you to To sort of figure out what is the Likelihood we're in a bull market or What is the likelihood we're in a bear Market at any given time now of course Everyone always wants to discuss the you Know the idea of is the bottom in or not This was a very popular topic back in in The summer and you know a lot of people Were wanting me to call the bottom right And say that that was it but we know That history shows us that it was Unlikely to be the bottom and Furthermore as long as we stayed below This resistance band you know the the Market was still not showing any Sustained strength so by calling the Bottom prematurely you end up you know

You end up running the risk of just Seeing simply another rejection by the Same resistance band that's been Rejecting us for the entire bear market Right so it's important to know you know Where those levels are because the thing Is is whenever we do break above it and We'll break above it at some point I Mean I imagine at some point right in 2023 in fact we will likely break above The the this resistance band right at Some point this year I think we'll break Above it But you must also remember that whenever We do break above it it typically is not An indication that a a massive bull Market is about to start it typically You know you can see back over here in 2015 once we broke above it you can Actually see we got rejected from it in In early 2015 right so we actually Rallied up to it in March of 2015 and Then we got rejected by it and we Actually came back down and then we Rallied above it in the summer and then We came back down and put in a a sort of Like a double bottom and on some Exchanges actually went to a new low Right so something to consider is even If you get above it it doesn't mean that The bull Market's here what you need to See is you actually need to see some Type of of support being held on it Right you know that's what you really

Ideally want to see is holding that bull Market support ban as support but it's a Very long process right you go through Being rejected by it throughout the bear Market at some point you break above it But whenever you break above it we Typically then it's like a false Breakout we spend maybe a few weeks Above it or even a few months above it Like in 2019 only come back down and Maybe put on a double bottom so it is a Long process whenever you break above it But it is at least something to keep in Mind okay Um and that's where the current range is Right it's from 18 3 to 191. fairly Tight range right it's a fairly tight Range it's not that far from where we Currently are and if you remember back In in November A lot of people got excited once again Right and and we're calling for you know I don't know if you guys remember this a Lot of people were calling for rallies Right back up and then what happened Right we rallied up to the 20 week And then we got rejected right now of Course you could point to to the Fallout Of FTX as the reason for that rejection And and I'm not saying that you're Necessarily wrong Um you know you can call it whatever you Want right but at the end of the day all That really matters is that it broke

Down right I mean you know your bank Account doesn't really care about what The narrative is you can't put Narratives in the bank account right It's just you know what's in the bank Account based on on the actual cash Value and it got rejected and you could Argue though Um sort of the you know say like the Realist would just simply say well the FED raising interest rates is likely Going to expose zombie companies so it's Only a matter of time before these Companies are exposed and they oh and They ultimately fall and it puts Downward pressure on the price right so I mean you can call it you can call it Every one but this is a this is often an Outcome a likely outcome of of Quantitative tightening you know the Zombie companies are brought to the Surface they're expelled from the market And then the market is is usually much Better off for it okay so right now Again that range is is you know that 18 To 19k range now if you look at this on Some other time frames let's go over to The to the Daily time frame if you take A look at the 200 day the 200 day which We know is what rejected us back in March of 2022 That's actually a little bit higher than The bull market support now the reason We need to remember that is because

Remember back in in March of 2022 we Actually rallied above the 20 week and Then we still just got rejected by the 200 day right not I mean and and you can See there's a fairly similar Um you know fair Fairly similar Structure here that's not to say that The outcome has to be the same but where If you do rally above the 20 week There's still the 200 day sitting just Above it and the 200-day on bitcoin is Actually at 19.5 so 19.5 K so it's Actually just a little bit above it now The other thing I wanted to mention are Are some you know some some of these Trend lines that we talk about and Listen I mean I I don't honestly put a Ton of weight into trend lines because We know how easy they can be taken out We know how sometimes it might seem like We're going to Rally to it and then it Doesn't happen Um you know a great example of that Actually is is 28 is is the comparison Of 2018 to 2022 we talked about you know These this um you know this low the Higher low the higher low this rejection Off the 200 day and then once you know Once this low was taken out we actually Rallied back up to the trend line sort Of back test it right we back tested That trend line and then in 2022 I Thought that that could be a potential You know a potential outcome

Um but it didn't happen right like we Sort of rallied back up a little bit but We didn't even come close to sort of Testing that same level so if we had Bitcoin would have had to Rally all the Way back up to like forty thousand Dollars over here which would have been Somewhat akin to the rally you know back To 8 500 or so back in August 2018 but It didn't happen right and and we Ultimately just continued to break down So of course you know I I don't think It's worthwhile to to attempt to take These trend lines uh to the bank of Course but if you if you were to look at Some of these potential trend lines here In the short term one of course is just Simply one we've already back tested Um so that one did sort of work out Right so uh perhaps it it didn't work Out over here right we didn't really Back test that one we did back test this One at around Um you know eighteen three or eighteen Four I don't remember exactly what it Was but it was somewhere around that Level if we take a look at the wick here Around eighteen four eighteen thousand Three seventy six of course it's going To be depend on the exchange you use uh So if we were to back test that trend Line again then you know you're talking About it going up to that 18 5 18 6 Level it could go higher depending on

How long it takes it but furthermore it Wouldn't it would also correspond to That to that bear Market resistance band Right which is an important level to Look at you can see that that resistance Band here is coming into that same level Now the two in a day again sits just Above it and it's perhaps some other Trend lines to look at would be you know This sort of this down downward sloping Trend line which also finds you know Some some Confluence here at this level And that that level is around Um you know eighteen five eighteen six So it actually you know if it actually Goes back up to this trend line it could It could potentially take out this local High from December okay Just if it if it were to Rally back up To this trend line or if it were rallied Back up to the downtrend line which Still would you know would still would Theoretically give it a little bit more Room now we do have I I would argue Potentially a high volatility event Coming as you guys know or if you're not Aware right is of course the CPI numbers That are going to be coming in tomorrow So if inflation you know surprises a lot In either direction I imagine it will be A very a fairly High volatility event Like if it if it surprises to the to the Downside you could see risk assets rally In the short term right I mean there's

Nothing precluding risk assets from Rallying per se in the short term even If you do have recessionary fears over The next six to 12 months doesn't mean You can't have you know short-term Rallies to the upside It's Perfectly Normal and we had no shortage of of Short-term rallies throughout 2022 I Mean we had a lot of them so we always Must contend with that as as being a Potential possibility so if inflation Comes in soft then you you know you Could see that if inflation comes in Very hot then I imagine that the reverse Of that would be true and you actually Would probably see a short-term pullback On risk assets because then the market Is likely going to then have to price in More rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Than they're already pricing in What they're pricing in right now I Believe is is a 25 basis point rate hike In February and then another 25 basis Point rate hike at the meeting after That and then and then likely pausing Somewhere around there maybe at five Percent or at five and a quarter is I Think what Market's a price again but if Inflation supplies surprises to the Upside and and we go back to to Um you know to some higher numbers and I I you know risk assets could of course Take a hit in the short term without Necessarily rallying back up to these

You know to these prior levels but again That is is sort of the Line in the Sand And then the other way you know if You're trying to look at this as many Ways as possible we've talked about this A little bit and it's that time-based Capitulation component and um and the uh You know in general it's the the idea of Of in a lot of these bear markets right As as difficult as it might be we Actually spend a lot of time probably a Lot more time in fact uh going up than Than going down you know and we've had Plenty of these of these sort of bear Flags that ultimately just simply Resolve to the downside no shortage of Them Um and unfortunately they've they've Just sort of continued to resolve to the Downside and there's been plenty more up Here and if you were to if you were to Draw one you know in the current range And and just try to estimate what that You know what that range currently is And you were to look at it like this You could argue that the current flag That Bitcoin is in maybe if I would try To get this a little bit more on on Point there you could argue that the Flag that it's currently in has sort of Like a lower bound right now at around 16 5 16 6 for us to stay in it so if Like we were to go below those levels Then that means the flag is breaking

Down just like it broke down you know Like over here and over here so that's 16 5 16 6 would be the sort of like the Line of the sand so you know if it rolls Back over and comes back down it doesn't Necessarily mean that this has to break Anytime soon we could then still rally Back up uh in a later month but then the Top part of this range would actually Take you all the way up to over nineteen Thousand dollars uh which is is actually Corresponding to that 200 day right so The 200 day is is sort of kind of coming Up here too close to the top of this Um to the top of the to this flag right So if Bitcoin were to Rally back up Um I mean and again for it to Rally back Up to that level it would actually have To take out you know this right it'd Have to take out this trend line so for For Bitcoin to actually rally back up to The top of this flag it would have to Take out this trend line but again That's all the way up at um you know the Trend line is all the way up at at just Below 19 000 and the 200 day is is just Above it right so the 200 days is it Around 19 Um 0.5 K right so about two thousand Dollars higher than than the current Price and and remember on on CPI days You often get a lot of volatility and it Can go up really quickly it can go down Really quickly so just be somewhat

Cognizant of of Um of that right and and and be aware That these moves can can occur very very Quickly and then they can you know you Could come back down very very quickly As well right like if it if it were to Resolve here to the upside and Bitcoin Where to get a pump uh it doesn't mean That it it won't just come back down and Retest some of these levels before Ultimately deciding which way it will You know it wants to head but hopefully This is at least a you know somewhat Informative about short return price Implications for Bitcoin as you guys Know I mean I don't really put a whole Lot of of weight into short-term Predictions but I did want to at least Provide some commentary On the most recent uh the most recent Price action by Bitcoin you can see that It's it's been slowly trending higher if You were to look at the daily time frame In fact we talked about high kanasha Candles before Um if you were to if you were to just Sort of overlay the 200-day and and pull Up the high kanashi daily candles I mean You can see that it's actually been in a Fairly strong uptrend Um really since the beginning of the Year right I mean January 2nd is when it Turned green and ever since then this Has been a fairly you know a fairly

Strong Trend I mean this is Um I'm basically like you know 10 10 in A row right I mean it says nine that Means one more because it's taking the Difference so you have you essentially Have these 10 daily candles in a row That are all green when you look at the High kanashi candle not the not just the Normal candle so it has been a fairly Strong uptrend recently and of course it Has people sort of speculating on on you Know how is this ultimately going to Resolve and so hopefully this has Provided some context into what we could Look to in the coming weeks and remember If it does break to the downside Anything above 16 5 16 6 is still within This same you know within the same path The last thing that I wanted to mention And perhaps the final way that I'm you Know sort of looking at at the price of Bitcoin right now is is looking at this Wedge right so Bitcoin is is arguably in This wedge and it has been for for quite Some time in fact you could argue that It started back in June even though we Broke down I mean this has just simply Been like like a low and then a high and Then a sort of another lower high and we Also put in some lower lows over here So if this wedge were to continue to Hold up then you know you're still Looking at at needing to get through That 18 6 you know maybe that 18 7 Level

Before You could argue that this this Wedge is broken otherwise if we just Come back up here and get rejected Um and and then come back down then you Know perhaps we have to kick the can Down the road a couple months before Trying again but that's ultimately uh I Think what is worth following here on The short term price action for Bitcoin Hopefully hopefully it's been somewhat Informative for everyone and uh thank You guys again for tuning in make sure You subscribe give the video a thumbs up And again check out into the cryptiverse Premium we do have the sale going on It's ending today one of the one of the Tiers is actually free so make sure you Check that out links in the description Below I'll see you guys next time bye


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