Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Crypto various premium at into the we like to do this video Occasionally I don't do it every single Week but Um especially with this recent move to The downside below the bull microsport Band it does seem prudent to provide Updates to where these moving averages Are because we do know the importance of This level it did Provide support during The first half of the year in the Uptrend and I suspect it will provide Resistance gearing theoretically the Second half of the Year's downtrend in Line with our general expectation of Bitcoin spending half the year going up And half the year going down now as of Today the 20-week SMA is coming in at Around 27 943 the 21 week EMAs at 27207 So basically we're looking at at a range Here For the bull market support band or a Bear marker resistance band if you Prefer from around 27 000 to around 28 000 and currently the price of Bitcoin Is at twenty five thousand seven hundred

And fifty dollars so the general Expectation is you know and I I say this Now because if you think back over the Last several months there have been a Few periods here and there where we get Pretty substantial moves back up to the Upside and and crypto Twitter loses Their Collective mind and they say you Know this is crazy and and Everything's Changed but you know if you think back We had it one of those moments only a Couple weeks ago and and it was nothing More than a week and if you think back You know not too long before that when The altcoin market right if you were to Go look at at total three if you Remember this move here by total three Was nothing more than a wick and we Ended up closing again below that 20-week moving average right so it's It's easier to talk about this stuff on Days like today when you know I I would At least think that it's it's easier for People to look at this with a Sort of a calmer head when the market Moves quickly in One Direction or the Other it's easy to let emotions rule the Day but you know when the price has been Going sideways for three or four weeks And nothing has happened then I would Like to think that we could look at it For more rational point of view and and That's to say that you know I mean at Some point in the coming months in the

Coming weeks we'll likely have backed Tests of the bullmark's workben and as Long as we do not get multiple weekly Closes back Above This which is is what I don't I do not expect that to happen This year okay so I want to lay that out Pretty clear because it's also important To have an invalidation right so my Expectation for the rest of the year for Bitcoin is that it just simply remains In a downtrend but a downtrend is not Characterized by down only it's Characterized by a series of lower highs And lower lows okay So that is my general expectation and Along with that expectation is I do not Expect Bitcoin to get multiple Consecutive weekly closes above its bull Market support ban collectively right I Don't expect that so if we were to get That then it might be time to go back to The drawing board and say well what's Going on like you know why is it Changing but until until that happens And I'm going to assume that the status Quo Remains the Same in the status quo Being that Bitcoin spends half the year Going up and half the year going down so You know if if we do get renewed Interests where Bitcoin goes back up I Would expect this bullmark sport band to More or less provide resistance and that Currently ranges around twenty seven Thousand to approximately twenty eight

Thousand dollars do note that in 2019 Once we got below the 20 week SMA we Actually did get a rally back up Um above the 20 week estimate but again It was nothing more than a wick right so I mean you could have an example where Get where Bitcoin goes back above it Um you know sometime the next few months But it doesn't necessarily mean that it Closes above it or if it does it might Just be a single close above it Right Um and you know I know there you know There were some people that were talking About well is this a fake out I think The issue is is that normally with fake Outs you don't get multiple weekly Closes like this below right if it's a Fake out you know you normally just get Something like this where it just sort Of Pops above it and then goes back the Other way Um This case you know we've gone below it And we're just sort of hanging out just Below it now to break down that 2019 Move for you even more and we talked About this a few weeks ago when we Talked about sort of this upcoming death Cross in 2019 Bitcoin actually rallied Into the death cross okay so and again That's not you know it doesn't happen Every single death cross but there are There are previous death crosses that

You can actually see the Bitcoin rallies Into so like you can see the Bitcoin Rallied into that death cross but it was Still a lower high but here's the catch With that rally here's the catch with The rally yes it rallied into the death Cross which is what Bitcoin is about to Get in 2023 but when it rallied into the Death cross it wasn't until after it Took out this June low right so you see That June low this rally into the death Cross I mean it could have been Coincidental that it happened to Rally In the dead cross maybe it just rallied Because it took out this low right But it did not get any substantial rally Until It took out the June low There were some rallies in here right There were some sizable rallies in here And again like it doesn't look like Anything today because you're not you Know we're not living through it today We're just looking at it on the chart And saying oh look at that but you know This was a rally this was a 10 rally Right and then this was a pretty Substantial rally it was like a a 13 Rally But today we just simply look at those And we kind of like stick our noses up To it and it was like these these other Rallies by the way were rejected at the 50-day they were both rejected at the

50-day look at today look at today where Do you think these rallies have been Rejected at or do you think this last One was rejected at Basically right around that 50-day Moving average right so you know if Bitcoin does see a lower high where it Gets some type of rally up to a lower High if it follows 2019 it's kind of you Kind of see two pieces of evidence here Because we know that it rallied into the Death cross which is what we're gonna Get tomorrow but we also know that the Rally didn't come until the June low Was taken out which still hasn't Happened yet and in order to do that We'd have to go below 24.8 K right so I Mean again like I don't you know you Know the optimists would say well you Know the death process occurring now Um therefore you know people are going To look good as bad news and style and Then the price goes up the other person The pessimist might say well that rally Back then didn't even occur until this Low was taken out so why should we it's Going to why should we assume it's going To occur this time before that low is Taken out And you remember how we said those other Rallies were like 10 and 13 this rally Over here About a 10 rally right It felt it felt crazy didn't it I mean

Everyone again was losing their Collective mind and now who cares about It you know like it was just completely Sold off almost immediately And by the way we talked about the Optimists and the pessimist point of View what about the 2015 point of view The 2015 point of view says to hell with These ideas of these lower highs to hell With it right after you after you get This sizable 2x rally you just go down And double bottom forget forget these Lower highs that you're you know you're Talking about what if it just what if There's just no bid when we break the Low you know what if Bitcoin breaks 24 8 And there's just simply not a bid you Know that becomes an issue and that's What happened in 2015. you know when it Broke down there just simply wasn't a Bid until it hit the prior low I mean it It dropped 50 percent about I think it Was like 48.9 or 49 or something like Let's just get it right don't take my Word for it 49.12 or so Look at that job it was a 50 drop from This high I mean again I mean today like a 50 drop From this high Puts Bitcoin back at a double bottom So You cannot go into this deterministic About anything right because you can get

Wrecked if you do that we can look at 2019 and say Well it rallied into the Death cross we could say well yeah maybe It rallied into the death cross but at First took out the June low which it Still hasn't done yet this cycle and Then the 2015 person would say you know What why are you guys so optimistic What if there's just not a bid when it Takes out the low and we just capitulate Into a double bottom You might argue that this this year Looks more like 2019 in terms of it Rallied for the first half of the year Just like 2019 did so we could argue That it's more similar to 2019 in that Regard that in 2019 we rallied for half The year and then faded right so rally For half the year and then fade but you Could also make the comparison to 2015 As well Because in 2015 while the first half of The year was a bit worse in the second Half of the Year got a lot better This was only a 2X rally and then a 50 Drop right it was a 2X rally and a 50 Drop today it's a a 2X rally not a four Not like a three to four x rally like we Saw in 2019. it's more of a 2X rally so In terms of the magnitude of the rally It's more similar to 2015. in terms of The timing of the rally and the you know The the sort of the the time based Components more similar to 2019.

Right So it's I mean it really you know it Really depends on on sort of what your Bias is I suppose as to you know as to What you think is is sort of the more The more important thing to look at Right if you were to look at at Year-to-date Roi uh for Bitcoin and just Sort of hide out all these other ones And just look at 2023 and add the Average of 2015 and 2019 which I think Is is good do you can kind of see that We're sort of just following that path And these lows down here would represent 23k ice I think bitcoin's gonna hit 23k Um Relatively soon in the next few weeks I Think it'll hit 23k and take out I think Will break the prior low so I think Bitcoin could break that prior low of 24 8 go to you know go down to 23k at some Point and and that's where all coins Really find what's up because again we Saw what we saw we saw what all coins Did before when Bitcoin went up but what Do they do when Bitcoin goes down so That's where we are we know where the Bull Market's workben is so if there is Any type of any type of rallies you know Where to look that's potential Resistance it's that 20-week estimate 21 Week EMA Zone and my speculation is that That bull market support ban should act As resistance for the second half of the

Year in the same way that it acted as Support for the first half of the year In line with our general expectations That Bitcoin spends half the year going Up and half the year going down so by The end of the prehabbing year both Pools and bears are sufficiently wrecked If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up And also check out the sale on into the Crypto versus premium at into the I'll see you guys next Time bye


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