Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Crypto various premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so it's been a little while since we Provide an update on the 20 week Estimate the 21 week EMA it of course is Useful to do so anytime especially that We're trending back down towards it if You remember a few weeks ago we said That if we bounce here we could Eventually then come back down to retest The 20-week SMA sometime in August or or September at this point we are getting Relatively close the current price of Bitcoin is now 29 262. you should know The 20 week SMA is at 28 519 which is Only seven or eight hundred dollars Below the current price the 21 week EMA For Bitcoin is now at twenty seven Thousand seven twenty so more or less The the range for the the Mark SmartBand Is from 27 7 to approximately 28.5 not That lower than where we currently are In fact it would only take about a a two Percent drop or so to get Bitcoin back To the 20 week SMA I would only take about a five percent

Drop to get it back to the 21 week EMA Now interestingly enough you know the The reason we use this is because we Know that in you know throughout the Market Cycles Bitcoin likes to interact With both the 20-week estimate and the 21 weekma quite frequently it was back In um 2019 I believe where you know some People use the 20-week SMA some people Use a 21 weekma and I was like well There's certainly Merit to both of them Why not combine them both into a into a Support band that more or less defines Whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish And one of the things that we said a few Weeks ago when we got the close below The 20-week SMA was that technically That was not a close below the bull Market scorpion right it wasn't it was a Close below one of them But we still held the 21 week EMA as Support right and so throughout this Year we have not really had I I mean Except for the very beginning of the Year right we have not had weekly closes Yet below both the 20-week SMA and the 21 week and we drew parallels to you Know prior times where where Bitcoin Maybe fell below one of the moving Averages but it didn't fall below Another the other moving average right Where you maybe had a weekly close below One uh but not necessarily below both And so that is the reason why it's

Worthwhile to look at both of them Because sometimes one of them holds Sometimes both of them hold but when we Go below both of them and get a weekly Close below both of them and then get Another weekly candle where we open and Close below both of them that is Normally a signal that you should pay Attention to and that has not occurred Yet right like if you look over here in 2022 we finally got below it and then we Just kept going back up to it and could Not hold it as support any longer we Ended up holding it as as resistance Okay Now this year we have found support a Couple of times at the 20 week SMA right We found it at around twenty thousand Dollars maybe just slightly below twenty Thousand dollars uh around that 19k to Twenty thousand dollar range we also Found support around 26 000. again right Now the bull market sport band is not That much lower than the current price One thing I want to remind you of though And it's always important to talk about How the market interacts with each other Right you have Bitcoin you have ethereum But you also have the altcoin market and I said right we talked about this a few Weeks ago that a bounce off of the 20-week SMA by Bitcoin right a bounce Could lead the altcoin market to to move Back up to the bullmark sport band but

Not necessarily decisively break through It right it could end up holding it as Resistance and so In that time you'll see that Bitcoin has Bounced off the bull market support ban But even though Bitcoin bounced the Altcoin market has still been unable to Get above its own full Market support Ban so so far what we said has come true In the sense that Bitcoin has bounced it Wasn't that we knew the Bitcoin would Balance it was that if Bitcoin bounces Then it would likely lead total three The altcoin market to retest its 20-week SMA and at this point that's pretty much What it's done right if you look at the Altcoin market you can see that the the Bullmark smartphone for that ranges from Around 349 to 354 billion and we're of Course just below that so at least at This point this continues to act as Resistance which is interesting Considering that for Bitcoin previously It acted as support right Now I will remind you that it was in 2019 that Bitcoin sort of slowly faded Into the bull market support band from This point right you can see that Bitcoin kind of topped out around the Summertime right June July and then it Just sort of slowly faded back down but It did not go below the bull market Support band until late September right Late September what's interesting though

Is in that case total three the altcoin Market fell below the 20-week SMA Um back then sooner right it actually Occurred in in July rather than September so it occurred you know a few Months before this time total three fell Below the 20 week estimate back in May So you can see that you know in one Sense total three is is more or less Doing what it did in 2019 where it fell Below the bull Mark sport band Well before Bitcoin Um well before Bitcoin did and then it Sort of bounced back up to that 20-week SMA a couple of times even in even in September right even in September it Bounced back up to it but ultimately got Rejected by it and it was not able to Get back above the 20 week SMA until the First month of the having year Right of the having year Going back to bitcoin The question remains is is it just Following the ghost of its 2019 self Where it just sort of slowly Fades here Into that into the third quarter and and Ultimately and ultimately drops if it if It were to do something like that it Could lead to a capitulation in the Altcoin market which could allow the Altcoin market to start to finally sniff Out some some potential uh macro bottoms On on their Bitcoin pairs remember last Cycle it was in Q3 of of the prehabbing

Year where a lot of altcoins actually Bottomed out Against Bitcoin and occurred after Bitcoin finally collapsed below its Bullmark scorpion after staying above it For you know for the first like Two-thirds of the year so this is why we Talk about the 20 week estimate the 21 Weekma it has acted as support a number Of times in Prior Bowl markets and it's Acted as resistance in Prior bear Markets in pre-halving years we see that We tend to stay above it for half the Year maybe a little bit more and then go Below it uh in 2015 you can see we got Above it in 2015 it took until it took Until June to get above it and then we Still fall below it in in the third Quarter of the prehabbing year so you Have two examples here right where in 2015 we fell below it in Q3 of the Prehabbing year in 2019 we fell below it In Q3 of the prehabbing year and I I Would guess that in 2011 I don't know I Don't remember the exact month that fell Below uh wouldn't you know right Q3 Around Q3 we sort of fell below it in August bounced back up and then Ultimately faded below it in September So we have three examples Which again like you know you can't Necessarily extrapolate from I'm not Asking you to take it to the bank but It's just that normally in the

Prehabbing years we will see Bitcoin do Well for a good portion of it but then Sometime around the third quarter we see It fail to hold the bull Mark sport band And I think that is ultimately the risk That we have to consider is is it going To play out in a similar manner as it Has the prior three pre-habbing years Does it fail to hold it or will this be The first time that it actually holds as Support do note that if it if it falls Below then that could lead to you know To other assets of course getting Getting hit pretty hard because a lot of Them are already below their bull Mark Scorpion and if you were to go look at Ethereum what's really interesting is This is the week actually in 2019 where Ethereum fell below its 20 week estimate And got a weekly close below it that Then then started Um the the downtrend for more or less The second half of the year right you Can see that it occurred on the week of July 22nd of 2019. and ethereum today is Is you know it's really close okay it's Really close to that level uh the 20-week estimate for eth is at 1859 so We're actually just right at it the 21 Wikima is a bit further down at 1812. so I think these are the things that the The important things to keep an eye on Does Bitcoin come back in here for Another test to me you know I mean it

Held it here and I mean there were a lot Of people that were really bullish on This pump right A lot of people are Really bullish uh but so far it has not It has not materialized in anything Necessarily different so keep an eye out Here on the 20 week SMA as as Bitcoin Slowly comes back down to it and and see How it interacts and and just see if it If it follows the path of the prior Three prehabbing years or if it or if it Sets on A New Path I've tried to do as Good of a job as I can of outlining the Most likely scenario in the prehabbing Year for Bitcoin and as we've Historically seen And pre-halving years it's normally About half up and half down we are Approximately halfway through the year a Little bit more than halfway through the Year so if that thesis is going to hold Any water then it would mean that it Needs to actually start to happen soon Otherwise I suppose it's back to the Drawing board but anyways hopefully this Has been a useful update for you guys It's winning week SMA and the 21 week EMA are are coming in pretty close here To the current price and so I imagine we Will be interacting with it here in the Next few weeks if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the

Cryptographers premium at into the we have a whole lot of Charts though that you can check out not Only crypto charts but also equities and And um and and macro charts uh We've Even started to expand some into the Precious metal space so make sure you Guys check that out link is in the Description below see you guys next time Bye


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