Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Crypto virus premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so I thought we should go ahead and Provide an update to the bull market Support band it has been a couple weeks Since I think we did a dedicated video On it I think one of the last videos we did uh We were talking about if it bounces Right if Bitcoin bounces off the 20 week SMA then our expectation was that the Dominance of Bitcoin would go up right We also said that if we close below the 20 week SMA and go below it then the Dominant should go up so we sort of Developed this idea that no matter Whether Bitcoin holds or not The dominance of Bitcoin should go up And the reason for this understanding or At least this conclusion is to say look If you're if you're at the point where You're putting money into crypto right If you've been putting money into crypto In 2023 The thing I just keep saying over and Over and over again is that opportunity

Cost right if you're putting it into an Altcoin and Bitcoin is outperforming Then you're taking on more risk for Less Reward now that's not to say that some All coins haven't outperformed I know Some of them have but in general we know That the dominance did get that rally Off of off of that level right when Bitcoin held the line here you can see That the dominant shot up once again and So this goes along with the idea that as Long as Bitcoin continues to hold the Line then the dominance of Bitcoin Should generally Trend higher now that's Not to say that you can't get days like Today where the Dominus drops of course That is sort of par for the course but That is the general expectation now One of the things that I mentioned back In this video over here was that there's This idea of the bull market support Band is a band right and we said it's Got some pretty good Tunes but the idea Is that as long as you hold one of them Then it still is technically holding the Line right like if you go below one but You hold the other one then you're still Technically holding the line okay we had A weekly close below the 20 week SMA but We still held on to the 21 week EMA and There's other periods in history where You can see that this happened I mean Like there's there's times where we Might go below one but we stay above the

Other so it's relevant to at least Acknowledge that as long as you're Holding one of them I still think you could technically say That you have in fact held the line the 20-week estimate or the 21 week EMA now In this video one of the things we Discussed again I'm not you know I I Didn't know if Bitcoin would hold a line Or not I mean we just said if it does Hold a line the dominance goes up and if It doesn't hold a line the dominance Goes up therefore for my understanding It's just you know it's more important To have you know to to not focus on the Altcoin market during a Bitcoin Dominance rally if that makes sense Right so When you When we talked about this though what I Want to go back to is we mentioned if Bitcoin holds the line Then how does that affect the rest of The market Now one of the things we mentioned is That if Bitcoin bounces we already know That the altcoin market is well below It's it's bullmark scorpion right back Then and we talked about that So what we said was look there exists a Scenario where Bitcoin bounces off of The 20 wheat And total three Rallies back up to its bullmark sport

Man right is this idea of Bitcoin can Bounce But even if it does it doesn't mean that The altcoin market is bouncing off its 20-week because it can't it's already Well below it so we're sort of seeing That play out right now Bitcoin has in fact bounced again Whereas Total three the altcoin market is Bouncing but it's still below its 20 Week estimated 21 week EMA so if you Look at at where the 20-week estimated 21 EMA 4r for the altcoin market it's it Basically ranges from around 350 billion To 360 billion and right now it's Currently coming in at 332 billion if You remember back in April I suggested That there is a decent chance of this Rally would sort of fall out in the low 400 billion dollar range my reason for Saying that was because I did not really Think that the altcoin market would take Out the November High given the fact That liquidity is continuing to be Sucked up okay Now Um That was the theory right it was at Least the thesis and and at this point We can see that total three is moving Back up But it still has not gone above this now I will say this like there's no

Guarantee that it gets rejected we have To admit that okay and by the way I I Will take this moment to say again that Like you know I I certainly do not claim To get everything right I know I get Plenty of things wrong so if if you're Under the impression that I think that Then you know please be understanding That I do not think that at all Um you know I've I've been very adamant About certain things happening and some Of them happen like the dominance rally Is is has has occurred and I think it's Still in the process of occurring even Though it's down today But I've also thought that ethereum Would collapse against Bitcoin and that Doesn't happen yet I mean it's still in The 0.06.07 range so you know you you Certainly uh win some and you lose some I just want to acknowledge that okay Because I I do see some some comments Um but anyways my general thinking here Is that you have Bitcoin bouncing off The 28 You have the altcoin market bouncing but Potentially just back to the bull market Support ban or the bear Market Resistance band if you prefer right There's no guarantee just yet that the Altcoin market is going to exceed this In any sustained way so we will see if In fact the altcoin market can make it Back up there one interesting thing

About these rallies that Bitcoin has had You know off of the 20 week or at least Once it gets above it is oftentimes a Bulk of the move happens pretty quickly And then you spend the next like month Or two consolidating right so like this Move occurred really quickly and we did Technically go higher a few weeks later But it was mostly just a kind of a slow Bleed with yes a higher high at some Point same thing over here right of the Bulk of the move came in that first week And then we did move up a little bit a Couple weeks later but then we still Ultimately Consolidated Um you know for a couple of months after That so you could argue that whatever is Going to happen in this move is is Probably going to happen within the next Couple of weeks or so based on what we Saw over here and then after that you Could see some type of of longer Consolidation period right Now if you look at at where Bitcoin is Right now and and you know the the time That it's been testing the 20 week SMA You'll see that If I get the um the date range here you Can see that from this low to this low Was about 15 weeks and then this low to This low was about 14 weeks or so if you Take it out again and say another 14 Weeks So 14 weeks would put you out in

September Right in late September Well there's something interesting about That and we talked about this before So you have your first move Your first move Your second move And then your third move 2019 had a very similar pattern as well Right you had you had your first move Your second one And then your third one Note that the consolidation periods in 2019 were much shorter but it was still A very similar structure right I mean You you essentially had a had a Structure where you moved up you Consolidated You moved up you consolidated you moved Up You Consolidated but this consolidation Period took you into September and it Was in September that Bitcoin finally Was unable to hold the line anymore okay It was it was in September and we know That September is not typically a great Month for you know for crypto in general Okay and it was in fact in September Where Bitcoin was unable to hold the Line and it fell below and if you if Again if you if you look at the date Range on this right you go 14 weeks out Or 15 weeks out and then another it was You know 14 weeks if you take this 14

Weeks out again or 15 weeks that puts You in mid to late September which by The way is actually the same time frame That Bitcoin fell below the 20-week SMA Back in the prehabbing year of 2019. So I I do think there is at least some Relevance to sort of think about that Um and and at least to acknowledge it You know I I have said before that I Thought there was a chance that April could Mark the yearly High Right we said it I mean the receipts are There I'm not going to hide from it I've Said many times that I thought that There's a chance that April could Mark The yearly high but I also said that if It doesn't I would expect whatever moves Going to occur to to really get started Get going in June and now we're at the End of June we did technically put in a New High Um and and as we go into July I guess The question is is you know how much how Much longer can the rally go note that In 2019 while technically the high came In June Again you know July was still not we Still weren't necessarily in a risk-off Environment again Bitcoin is still above Its 20 week SMA and again we did not go Below the 20 week until almost Q4 it was All I mean like I know we're about to Start July but it was almost Q4 When when Bitcoin finally fell below its

20 week estimate and by the way I mean I'll say this there's no guarantee that Even in September Bitcoin Falls below it Right I mean there's there's a chance That it could fall below it in October There's a chance that it falls below it Tomorrow okay there's no guarantee About any of this stuff the one thing That I've I've mentioned as well is you Know total three the altcoin market Gave a warning to bitcoin well before Bitcoin fell below its 20-week SMA back In 2019 so total three fell below its 20 Week in July In 2019. And this time around you can see that Total three fell below it in May So a couple months sooner But we know that Bitcoin didn't fall Below its 20 week estimate until Basically the last week of September Which was essentially about 10 weeks Later so you're talking about two and a Half months later before Bitcoin fell Below its 20 week estimate If you were to draw out two and a half Months from early May That would get you out until about Mid-july About mid-july before you're 10 weeks Out so again there's no guarantee that Bitcoin makes it until September above The 20 week SMA but I mean at least in The short term until I mean until we

Come back down I mean of course the uh There's there is the momentum right There is the momentum Um the Bulls are trying to break out Here obviously if we come back down like Next week or something that would that Would be quite bearish but if Bitcoin Breaks out of this level right if Bitcoin breaks out of this level then You could argue that the next task could Be you know a couple months from now Right like it might not come until August or September just like it did Back in 2019 and again in 2019 Bitcoin fell below the 20 week SMA in Late September so you know there's a Couple of conflicting views here right If you just take 2019 for what it is you Say Well it happened in September uh but If you look at the altcoin market and Note that it took Bitcoin two and a half Months after the altcoin market fell Below it to fall below it itself and That would put you out sometime in in Mid-july at the end of the day one of The things we should say is that no Cycle will be the same right no cycle Will be the same and whatever played out In 2019 does not necessarily have to Play out today and that's why we also Sometimes compare to 2015 just to give Us another uh you know another sort of Reference point another perspective Rather than just comparing to 2019 and

Actually one of the things that we've Talked about as well Is if you go look Um at the at the year to date Roi for Bitcoin in 2023 and you you look at it Compared to say 2019 you can see that What we've experienced so far has been a Very tempered version of 2019 but it's Also been a more impressive version than 2015. Has it not it's been a more impressive Version what's interesting is if you Were to take you know 2015 Um from this level it might actually Look somewhat you know somewhat similar I mean like you know the issue with 2015 Is that it basically capitulated at the Very beginning of the year right so like If you were to just take [Music] Um After the capitulation right so if you Took this bar pattern here I know it doesn't look like much right But if you were to sort of just get this Lined up as best we can And you were to sort of bring it over to Where we are today Like there are some similarities right I'm not saying it's a perfect fit we Know that it's not but just sort of Measuring it out from the low It hasn't you know what what Bitcoin has Done in 2019 at least measured from the

Low in 2015 hasn't been that different It has been somewhat different but 2015 If you remember Bitcoin had from this Low here An 80 rally Now this time so far it's had a hundred Percent rally Approximately 100 move So again there's a lot of things that You can look at here right there's a lot Of things you could you could look at it Compared to 2015 you could look at it Compared to 2019 and see that you're Somewhere in between and if you take an Average of 2015 and 2019 I've shown this Chart many times the reason why I showed This chart is because Um if you if you take an average of 2014 And 2018 And overlay that So this is 2022 and if you take the Average of 2014 and 2018 you basically Get what essentially happened in 2022 so Why not consider the average of 2015 and 2019 as a potential path for 2023 in Terms of the potential upside and the Potential downside and we've talked About this before that if you take this Extreme here as sort of the max upside For Bitcoin in this prehabbing year it Would put the price of Bitcoin at Approximately thirty five thousand Dollars and what's interesting is you Can actually see that Bitcoin started to

Move up Once we sort of hit this line once we And now it's it's sort of leveled off Here it hasn't made that final move There's no guarantee that it does right There's no guarantee that it does it it Certainly never made the move to the Downside over here Um so again there's no there's no Guarantee that it does but that option Is still there right like that the Option still exists that if it were to Go up to 2.1 x off the yearly open then That would of course put Bitcoin at Approximately thirty five thousand Dollars so One of the things I'm I'm sort of I will Try to look at here is you know will Bitcoin break through this 31 000 level Right will it break through Of course if it does Um it doesn't necessarily mean that it Has to go to 35k there's a level here I Imagine it'll be interesting for it to Try to get through around 32 500 Um so that'll be a level to look for as Well but again You'll notice that in terms of time in Terms of time Bitcoin topped out in 2019 In that summer time right so it topped Out in June late June and then sort of Faded into September Right now it doesn't look exactly the Same because Bitcoin just sort of

Bounced in June right it's just sort of Just bounced in June so I think the next Couple of weeks are or maybe the next Three weeks or so Um will likely get us to wherever it's Going to go in this balance whether We've already hit it right whether this Is the high or if we go just a bit Higher you can see that the prior moves More or less got that got to that upside Potential for the most part uh within You know within the first couple within The first few weeks of that of that Major move okay To give you an idea I mean like like This move here off the 20 week got you Up to around 28 000 and we only ever Went up a few thousand more dollars Right and and that was it but this was The bulk of the move we did go up Another 10 a little later on but again It was in this one week where Bitcoin Went up 26 okay 26 in one week this move Here was 22 so you had 22 move in one Week this one was a 26 move in one week And then this one here was about a 16 Move in one week So I I do think it's it's it's relevant To to sort of follow this because you Know the the thing that I I kept going Back to is that total three is still Below it's 20 week right like to me this Is not a healthy sign for the altcoin Market and I've been pretty clear about

That right it's not I mean it doesn't Mean that it can't turn into one but Um the the fact that it it has just Continued to put in one lower high after Another right all of these are lower Highs and Um And now it's still below the bull market Support band even though Bitcoin just Bounced off of its 20 week SMA I mean if Bitcoin rallied to 32k or 33k It might only get the bull markets or Might only get total three back up to Its 20 week and then what happens if Bitcoin goes back down to 27k or Something after that then there's There's a potential where it just comes Up and and then gets rejected right so That's the yeah that's the thing that I Think is is worthwhile to consider Going back to this chart you can see That you know Bitcoin in at day Let me pull it up actually so in in 2015 Bitcoin had a rally until day 193. In 2019 Bitcoin had a rally until day 177. so 177 to 193. this year we're Currently on day 182. so we're right in Between that window as to where Bitcoin Found this local or this yearly high in 2019 and then this local high in 2015. Now this was not the yearly high in 2015. we do know that we actually went Back up at the end of the year but we Actually had a double bottom before

Going back up later on in the year so we Are at least within that window you can See that again this year has been an Improved version of 2015 a tempered Version of 2019 and if you just average Them out Um it actually looks like a a pretty Good View of of what's actually might go on This year and by the way if you're Curious what this would mean for the Price of Bitcoin if it were to follow This path Um you know it would still mean coming Back down uh to I guess levels slightly Lower than where we just were so we just Were at 24K so if we were to come back Down to this level that would put you Around 23k or so Um and then you still have to get Through you know the um uh the early Stage of the having year where we Theoretically get the resolution of the Yield curve and all that sort of stuff Just like we had in early 2020 but that Is is sort of the outline that we you Know that Bitcoin has been following for For quite some time Hopefully these videos are useful I mean You know I think the most common Feedback I get on on these videos are Like well you know just say if it's Going to go up or down guys I don't I Mean I don't it's hard to know right

It's really hard to know I mean I my General view is that Um you know exposure to the cryptoverse In my opinion should be basically Limited to bitcoin because I of the Opinion that the dominance isn't a macro Uptrend and I'm not a swing Trader like I'm not a short-term swing Trader or Anything like that so I don't really Care about short-term moves in in the Altcoin market if I think that Bitcoin Will continue to outperform them over You know over a multi-month time period So I'm still I'm still sitting in that Camp but I don't really think I'm going To change uh that camp anytime soon so That's the reason why we follow this Stuff is to try to figure out You know is the altcoin market worth the Risk is it not and in my opinion is that It's not worth the risk with respect to Bitcoin okay with respect to bitcoin so Again A test here in March A test here in June If we get another test on the same time Frame it would be sometime in September In 2019 note that it was September where We failed to hold the line in 2015 You'll note that it was in August where We fell back below the 20-week SMA right So you can see we rallied back above it And then it was in August where we fell Below and if you just sort of take the

Time the time from when total three fell Below it in 2019 to win Bitcoin fell Below it was two and a half months that Would actually put you uh closer to This area of falling back below it Um So maybe it would be you know somewhere Somewhere in this window and guys I mean There's there's some theories out there That just say Bitcoin is going to Rally To highs right there's some theories out There that say that and I will be the First to say again like anything can Happen Um you know another way to look at this Is is in 2019 you had sort of three Moves right you had a a um an 80 rally Right about an 80 Rally or so and then You had another 80 rally and then you Had another 80 rally So you had 380 rallies and then Bitcoin Topped out Um interestingly this time we haven't Had 80 rallies Um at least not not without a massive Pullback right but we have had 60 Percent rallies rates you had one sixty Percent rally and then we had another 60 Rally Well maybe just less than that it was Like maybe like a 57 Rally or so Um maybe it was a little bit more if I Could actually catch the top of that Wick about a 58 rally and then at least

From this low we're currently up around 23 percent Um you know if it goes up 40 that would Get you to 34.7 35k would correspond to About 41 60 again would get you close would get You to 39K which would be guys I mean I Don't know if Bitcoin is going to go That high this year but if it did I Imagine the dominance would be very Close if not exceeding UH 60 and then it Would likely go higher on on a Bitcoin Downtrend as well but those are just the Different ways to to view the market the Prehabbing years are are often quite Brutal in in my own experience mainly Because we spent about half the year Going up and half the year going down I Guess the question is is you know now That Bitcoin has put in five green Months out of six six in the first half Of the year that were I mean so five out Of the first six months of the year were Green okay so if that thesis is going to Come true then you need to start seeing Some red months soon otherwise that Thesis is is null and void Um if you look at 2015 Four of the first six months of the year Were read but if you look at 2019 it's Actually more similar to what we saw This year right 2019 five of the first Six months of the year were green And then you had July August and

September and November December were red So in 2019 while five of the first six Months were green five of the last six Months were in fact red so you ended up The year with about six green months and And six red months and that has been my Thesis going into this year is that we Would spend about you know half the year Going up And half the year going down and and so Far uh we can say that well we've at Least spent half the year going up but If if we don't turn back around soon Then Um that means that that thesis of half And half is is is void right so well Again we'll see where we end up by you Know as as the as the week sort of Progress here but if if we do push Higher into the into the sort of the mid 30s then I would be looking towards a Another test here of the 20 week SMA in August or September and if we just Simply get rejected here If we get rejected at at this level and It just ends up being like a double top Or something then I suppose uh it could Be closer to mid-july Um as as maybe the altcoin market gave The same type of warning in 2019 the Bitcoin had two and a half months before Before losing that strength anyways We'll see what happens thank you guys For tuning in make sure you subscribe if

You're not subscribed to the video Thumbs up and I'll see you guys next Time bye


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