Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse Docomo and the pinned comment let's go And jump in so we have had a bit of a Development this week and there's Actually a couple of important things That I think we going to want to watch Over the next several days and the next Say two to three weeks or so so Bitcoin Did just have its first weekly close Below the bull market support band in 2024 in last in fact the last time we Had a close below both the 20we SMA and 21 we EMA was all the way back over here In October of 2023 so it's actually been quite some Time since we saw this play out so it is At least noticeable right I mean like And this is something we talked about Beforehand right we said back in March That you could have a scenario where Bitcoin tops a month before the having It gets a local top before a month Before the having just like eth USD had A local top one month before the merge And then it just sets a few lower highs

And you get a summer low and now that Seems to be what has happened now Remember just a few weeks ago when we Were up at 71k there was a lot of bullish sentiment And now I mean a lot of that's just been Completely wiped out here but I will say At this Point there is still something to watch Here in the short term because while we Do have a weekly close below the bull Market support band there are cases Where you go below it and then you get Back above it the following week and It's sort of just like a fake out right So I think it would still be premature To assume that it can't get back above It especially when you look at other Examples where it actually had a very Similar pattern so I do want to talk a Little bit about that obviously we've Made the comparisons to 2019 basically uh where Bitcoin sort of Topped out in the summer of 2019 and Then basically set these lower highs Eventually fell below the bull market Support ban and then struggled to get Back above it for the rest of the year So look guys we know that that's one Outcome okay and you know if you've Watched this Channel at all for the last Year or so you know that that is one Potential outcome sort of an Intermediate downtrend in the market

Right as right around the time that rate Cuts arrive a Counterpoint to that idea Though is that when 2019 happened Bitcoin did rally and get a final top One month before rate Cuts so I don't Really know if that's going to happen But so far structurally it still looks Similar to 2019 in the sense since you Are getting lower highs and lower lows Right if you look at this you can see Bitcoin got a series of lower lows it Also got a series of lower highs now you Can see a very similar thing over here Right where it's getting a series of Lower highs and a series of lower lows So structurally it still looks similar To 2019 however there are some things that I think are worth considering and that Is is perhaps best looked at when you Pull up the 200 day moving average if You pull up the 200 day moving average It's currently sitting at right around 58,7 59 so you know a few thousand Higher than the current price um I need To sneeze but we'll see when it happens Um but a few thousand dollar above the Current price the the the recent low That Bitcoin set was on July 5th what's Interesting is in 2013 Bitcoin sort of topped out in April And then it it sort of bled until July 5th right July 5th actually marked the Low and you can see that it Wicked up

The the day of April 10th right you see That on April 10th there was a wick up New high July 5th was a low and then Slowly it got right back above the 200 Day SMA on July 7th which would have been You know this last day which Bitcoin was Unable to do but it only spent you know A couple of days or so below the 200 day Moving average and then it got right Back above it and then it it basically Took out this these sort of this lower High trend line that Bitcoin had been Had been following for a while right you See that and it took it out by Late July Early August so that's one thing to Consider because there is some type of Negative seasonality going into the Summer that's why we call a summer lull Right and this happened last year as Well look at at at 2023 you also had a Summer low right where the market just Sort of died off in the summer months it Also did it over here as well look at at 2021 right you can see a summer low Where the market bottomed out mid July Or so look at 2016 where the market had a summer low And it bottomed out basically that very First part of August in fact if you were To go look At the year-to date Roi of Bitcoin here's

2024 here's 2013 right you can see there Was negative seasonality going into that July time frame look at 2021 right same Thing not so great seasonality in the Summer months look at 2017 same thing Right you can see how Bitcoin sort of Falls off in those in those summer Months and that's one of the reasons why We talked a lot about the idea of a Summer low right where you see this drop In the market and as as basically Sentiment dies off and one of the things We talked about is that all Bitcoin Pairs should start to show a lot of Weakness in the summer as the social Risk drops and you can see that the Social risk has dropped back Below in Back into the 0 to point1 wristband and We saw back over here when that happened That's where all Bitcoin pairs finally Faded and again if you need a reminder On that if you were to go look over at At all Bitcoin pairs um Right here you can see that in the same Way they are you know in the same way That 2019 was they are sort of flirting With that support level where they're They're really struggling to hold right Now so look there's evidence to support The idea that it's following the 2019 Path right you saw gold break out and That's what marked the local top for Bitcoin and you also of course have this This trend line tag of us dominance

Right where it tags the trend line and Every single time it tags the trend line It then goes up for a while we've seen That happen many many times which is Obviously not great for risk assets than The cryptoverse so that is something to Consider right we know that 2019 is a Possible Outcome but what if Bitcoin gets back Above its 200 day SMA or the bull Mark Sport bin if that happens then it could Mean that it's not like 2019 again I Don't control what it is it just is what It is and I you know back over here in 2023 we saw Bitcoin go below the 200 day Estimate and then it reclaimed it in October you see that it reclaimed it in October so in 2019 you can see that it Also reclaimed it in October but it was A fake out that was met with a lower High you see it was a fake out above the 200 a SMA that just ended up being a Lower high so back over Here Bitcoin was able to break through In 2019 it was not and it didn't break Through in until the following year okay Now the reason it fell down it fell down Right around the time of rate cuts and We you know there's a good chance that Rate cuts are going to be coming later On this year So I want to be openminded about this Like I'm just trying to be honest I want

To be openminded like I have a bias Obviously to assume 2019 and and I think A lot of that is because of of what Happened last cycle but I also know that Every cycle is different and so we Should not assume that it's going to Play out in the exact same way as 2019 I Think there's evidence to support that View but if we were to go find evidence To sort of counteract that view you Could go again look and and you could Find bad seasonality by Bitcoin in the Summer months that happened in 2013 it Happened in 2016 and in 2017 and 2021 it Even happened in 2023 so this is Something that was theoretically always Going to happen happen right regardless Of what happens in Q4 there was Theoretically going to be I mean there's No such thing as a sure thing right but I mean based on seasonality it was Pretty likely that we were going to see A summer Lull in the summer of 2024 and That's regardless of what ends up Happening in Q4 of this year okay so you Can see that in 2013 in Q4 what happened we basically Fell the 200 day SMA in July July 5th Which is exactly when Bitcoin found this Low it was also July 5th coincidentally Right but remember back in 2013 Bitcoin Got back above its 20day SMA yesterday On July 7th whereas it still hasn't been Able to do that so far so something to

Keep an eye on it's a little bit Different also in 2013 Bitcoin topped in April 2024 Bitcoin its local top was in March but I would say this okay if Bitcoin can get back above its 200 day SMA and and let's say like the the bull Market sport ban right if it can get Back Above It by mid July then there's Evidence to support that hey maybe you Still have enough juice in the tank for Another move up in Q4 kind of like you Saw in 2013 kind of like you saw here in 2016 where we went below the bull marks Swon we also went below the 200 SMA but Then we still got back into gear and Then Q4 came around and we saw Bitcoin Go up once again right so that is still A possibility that is worth considering The main difference though Between you know between what we're Seeing um now and and and throughout all Those other prior cycles that I I Sometimes wonder about is that and again I I don't really I'm not using this to Say this time is different in fact so Far this time has been very much the Same um in fact if you were to look at You know if you were to just simply look At at the sort of the market cycle Roi Right if you were look at you know Roi From the low right if we go from like Roi after the cycle bottom Roi I mean You can see that you know look at where Bitcoin is right now compared to the

Last couple of Cycles I mean this is Where it's always been at this point in The cycle right right here right I mean And so you know when you look at it like That it doesn't really seem like what's Happening now is is that big of a Deal now if you measure it from the Peak and you take Peak to Peak we're Still well above the last few Cycles but If if you measure from the April 2021 Top we're kind of not we're kind of Right where we should be right so in That sense it's not I mean there's a lot Of elements of like it's not like this Time is not different in that regard but There's this other part of me that I Look at this stuff and I'm like well you Know for all of bitcoin's history um you Know for for basically all of bitcoin's History we saw the unemployment rate Essentially dropping with the exception Of 2020 right you see that right this is Just massive downtrend in the Unemployment rate and then you had a Spike here and then Bitcoin obviously Dropped now you're slowly starting to See Bitcoin rise back up or sorry you're Starting to see the unemployment rate go Back up which is not something that Bitcoin has really experienced before Now I think Bitcoin can obviously Withstand even if you do get a recession I think Bitcoin will will withstand that And and still go on and be successful

But you know it's just something to Think about right I mean and I I think a Lot of people look at it and say well You're going to have a left translated Peak where bitcoin's going to Rally in Q4 and and topped in and you're going to Get a you know a multi-year bare Market Uh in a recession that's true you you Know you could see something like that You could also see something like you Know where you get a a a scare or Something in the economy um later on This year and it makes people think the Cycle is over and it makes people think That All Season's never going to happen And then it happens when it always does In in the post Haven year um so I don't Really know I mean I I I I think that I can look at this and see the Resemblance to 2019 right I I can I see The lower highs you know I see the lower Lows it looks like there's this Downtrend Channel That's forming right I See that it also of course happened Right around the time of of you know Late business cycle getting into those Rate Cuts we haven't gotten into the Rate Cuts yet but you know we're not That far away so I sort of see that but I also think there's some recency bias There and you know we could go back and Look at 2013 and see that you know we Also were putting in lower Highs but we Were putting in higher lows and then we

Ended up breaking out so what I would Say is and I've said this for years Right even in early 2022 I said you know Crypto exposure if you limit it to Bitcoin it gives you exposure to the Upside it minimizes your downside risk Whether Bitcoin goes up or down the Bitcoin dominance should go up right and Look at I mean look at all coins they Just keep selling off for the most part Sure there's a few here and there that Are doing pretty good for the most part Altcoins are stuck in traffic on circle Street especially on their Bitcoin pairs Um so you know I don't really know I Mean honestly I I I don't know if Bitcoin is going to get back above its 200 day estimate here or not but I would Say if it gets back above it soon like Really soon and gets right back above The bullmark sport band and can break Out above this trend line here then the Odds drastically go up of a Q4 rally Right so similar to 2013 and 2016 and 2017 if on the other hand Bitcoin cannot Get back above the 200 day SMA kind of Like 2019 right it does something like This where it just kind of keeps getting Rejected then you could be in for one of Those repeat scenarios where you have Sort of an intermediate downtrend in the Middle of a larger uptrend right you had A larger uptrend here but you also had a 9mon downtrend in that larger uptrend so

You could see something like that play Out again right you have a large uptrend You know could you be in sort of an Intermediate downtrend within a larger Uptrend that's a possibility I think the Way to sort of get a clue is to if That's happening is see can Bitcoin get Back above its 200 day moving average Can it get back above the bull market Support bin now right now the bull Market support Bend ranges from 6,433 to 65,800 so it's actually quite a bit Higher than where we currently are If it's a 2019 copy then you would Essentially expect Bitcoin to you kind Of stay down here for a little bit maybe Even set some slightly lower lows and Then rally back up to the 20we SMA maybe In August or something right I mean That's what you would generally expect If it were to play out in a similar Fashion kind of just do something like That down here bounce back up get Rejected and then come back down and set A lower Lev That's that's if it's a 2019 style move Okay if it's a 2013 2016 2017 style move You would not expect it to spend much More time at these levels right I mean You would expect it to basically get Back above the 21 we EMA this week That's what it did in 2013 and in 2016 It was just a weekly it was just a wick

Down below the 20we moving average in 21 We EMA so you would not expect it to Spend that much time down here If you're following sort of the 2013 2016 2017 2021 route which again that's Where we showed that Bitcoin has often Had that negative seasonality effect Where often it bleed sort of into parts Of July so I would keep that in mind Keep that in mind as as what might give Us insight into what's in store for us In Q4 okay if this were to play out like 2019 again it would mean just is Basically bleeding slowly until the end Of the year okay if it's 2013 or 2016 then you would not expect Bitcoin To spend much more time at these prices If you were to pull up though the RSI The relative strength index on the two We it's kind of interesting because let Me just pull this up uh for a second Here it's a little interesting to me Because you you have this scenario where All these major tops occurred on this Trend line which has already been tagged In fact right you can see that it's Already been tagged but the Counterpoint Is that the current level that it's at Is exactly the same level that it found Support at in 2013 right you see that it Found support at that level in 2013 it Also found support near this level in 2016 as well a number of times and so I Look at where it is now and I'm like

Well if this is 2013 then Bitcoin can't go much below The current price that it's already gone Below right because if it does then that Means it's going below this two we RSI Of around 55 which once you go below That often times you then go all the way Back down to sort of much lower levels On the weekly RSI you know down to 40 or Below right again right now it's at 55 Now in 2019 you can see that we had a Rally all the way up to the over so or Over overbought condition but we did not Hold support at that 5556 level and we Ended up going all the way back down to The 4 s so I think we're at a very Critical juncture right now with Bitcoin There's a lot of discussion about you Know whether you're going to get a left Translated cycle where you get a Q4 peak In the having year or whether it might Be a normal cycle or maybe it's just a Cycle where the Top's already in you Know I mean that's not really a fun Topic but it is something to at least Consider especially when you look at a Chart like this there's only really been One cycle where you tagged this trend Line more than once and that was back in 2013 a lot of these Cycles once you Tagg The trend line you know the cycle was Pretty close to being Over but in 2013 it tagged this trend Line came back down held support right

Here and got one more rally the Counterpoint though is this Was the PO having year this is the Having year okay now this is the Dilemma This is the Dilemma these prior Peaks Occurred in the post having year 2013 2017 and 2021 so if it's translated Peak And it goes back up in Q4 of this Year then is it over at the end of this Year is it just over kind of like it was In 2013 it just happened it all happened A year Sooner that's one outcome but I also Think to myself well if it's not broke Don't fix it right I mean you know we've Had peaks in Q4 of every post having Year so Far again you know is that going to Happen again Maybe you know I mean you spend a lot of Time fighting it but what happens if it Just plays out like it always has but if That's the case you know if it is just Another sort of peak in Q4 of 2025 and Not 2024 then that means that you can't Really have the same extent of a rally This year because if you get it this Year I mean unless you just think Bitcoin you know unless you just think It can do it again next year which again I guess anything's possible but I'd say The odds would go down so one way that It could play out

If it's not a Q4 rally would be sort of A a 2019 style Lull in the market where The summer lull extends beyond the Summer in 2019 the summer lull extended Beyond the summer and it lasted for the Rest of the year and it and it P the Market then picked back up the following Year right and then you still got a Q4 Rally but it didn't happen until the Following year you see That so three of the years so two of the Three years you had a Q4 rally but in One of the three years you did not have A Q4 rally right you had a Q4 drop and That was when we had rate cuts and right Now the market is expecting rate Cuts in September just before Q4 right So I think I I know one of the things About Bitcoin is it it doesn't tend to Repeat exactly what it's done in a prior Cycle it's always throwing us a Curveball okay so I look at this chart I'm like okay well if it is 2013 it Means it holds support here right if It's 2013 could it be yeah because if it does And you get a peak in late 2024 then it would be slightly different From the prior years because then you Have a peak in the having year as Opposed to the post having year and so You could say that it's technically Different and therefore you know might

Be worth thinking of it as a you know Slightly different than the prior cycle But there's another part of me that Thinks well if it just bounces back up And comes back up here everyone's going To just be looking at at this thing Right here and then it it would seem Like it's going to be almost too obvious I don't know um it's one of those things Where like you know you can sort of Overthink this when really the the the Strategy the sort of the correct Strategy is DCA at risk levels you're Comfortable with and you're probably Going to be better off than trying to Time this this all this crap um but Again just for for academic purposes one Way that it could play out if if it's Not a Q4 rally would be that if if the Market does a sort of a 2019 style bleed After rate Cuts then you could get this Scenario where it comes comes back down Here and then gets another move up in in 2025 back up to the top of the trend Line one Counterpoint by the way sort of This being a a you know sort of a major Top although it could be is if you look At the monthly RSI it's nowhere near right it's nowhere Near that level right that's just sort Of the same drawing that I just had on The chart right it's nowhere near that Level you didn't actually you didn't Actually go all the way to the

Top and it's actually cooled off quite a Bit in 2013 this drop here was basically Just back down to 70 and then it went Right back up right now it's all way Back down to 58 on the monthly RSI so Again you know it depends on the way you Look at it but you know I keep spending So much time like trying to figure out Like it's like a puzzle you know trying To figure out the puzzle pieces how's This thing going to play out and I I I think at this point it's I mean There's parts of it that seem 2019 esque To me but that's also you know to somee I think it's some recency bias that's Just what happened last cycle so it's Fresher in my mind than what happened in 2013 and what happened in 2016 so I also Go back to those and I see all right Again if it's not 2019 then I think Bitcoin needs to prove it this month This month okay if it gets back up the 200 day SMA and if it gets back above The bullmark support band before this Month is Over which I mean I I shouldn't limit it To this month specifically but you Wouldn't expect it to spend too much Time below it right again 2013 2016 we Did not spend that much time below it so You would not expect Bitcoin to spend That much time at these prices if it's Just 2013 or 2016 or 2017 or 2021 if it's

2019 then you would expect longer times At these prices right you would expect a Little bit longer time at these prices Um and for and for to Solly beding I Think one of the reasons why I I go back To that is if you look at like altcoins Like total three um so you know to to Some degree this does to me I mean the Altcoin market does kind of look like 2019 right where you have this you know You have this rally that goes up a lot You know pretty high and then you you Slowly bleed back down to the Mark sport Band you hesitate around there for a Little bit and then you go even lower And it kind of looks like that's kind of Just what just happened right you Hesitate there for a little bit and then You go even lower so I I still think That there's some evidence to suggest That it it's similar to 2019 but I want To remain open-minded you know I feel Like there have been times in the past Where I wasn't as open-minded and then I Got my face ripped off um you know by a Rally so like I I I'll just say you know It's more of like an ifin statement if If Bitcoin can reclaim the bull market Sport band and the 200 day SMA Especially before Q4 then the odds of a Q4 rally go up if it can't and it just Does what it did in 2019 then the odds Of of of a Q4 rally go down and you Might just see a Q4 bleed into the end

Of the year maybe on the back of of an Uninverted yo curve right I mean that Would probably scare the market into a Q4 bleed rather than a Q4 rally if you Get some type of an uninverted y curve So I I think that's kind of where we Stand right now in the market and I I Just wanted to provide an update on on Bitcoin and the bull marks SP band and Really just talk about all these things So let's see where Bitcoin goes this Week um and and what happens but you can See I mean you're you're kind of living It out right now one of the things we've Been talking about how you know the Slightest sneeze by Bitcoin and a lot of These alts just are not even that far Off their lows I mean like look at Ada And this was this was that 2019 Comparison to Ada you see how similar This Ada Ada USD move is you see that It's it's like identical and look at Like dot I mean a lot of them are just Back near their lows look at Avalanche Right it's just bleeding back down um Look at madic I mean a lot of these alts That were so loved last cycle are closer To their lows than their highs so Imagine a scenario where Bitcoin goes to 40K right imagine that if Bitcoin were At 40K then you have a lot of these alts Are at new lows right I mean like again Ada is is at 34 cents right now its low

Was 23 cents or something so if Bitcoin Were to dropped to 40K I mean how did These alts not put in new Lows that's why Bitcoin has been the Better play but we knew that Bitcoin was The better play because of where we are In the business cycle higher rates QT Doesn't mean you can't have a bull Market but it's where it's a bull market Where the lower risk assets outperform How many times have you heard people say Where you know eth is holding up well or Alts are holding up well you can say What you want about them but they're Still down a lot against Bitcoin over The last several years so you know I Look at this and I'm like well if Bitcoin were to drop back down Here a lot of alts are going to put in New Lows if your reality's back up Bitcoin Dominance is still going up either way More than likely so that's where I stand That's my update to the bullmark SP Ben Let's see what happens over the next Couple of weeks if you're in 20 13 Camp 2016 2017 2021 camp where you rally in Q4 you really want to see Bitcoin get Back above the bull market sport band Before Q4 if you're in the 2019 camp and you Think this is playing out like 2019 then you would expect us to just Kind of hang around here for a little

While Right I don't know I think I'm biased Towards the 2019 view because that's What happened more recently I would say I'm kind of like 7030 maybe that's the Way I'm I'm like 7030 right now if we Get back about the 200 day SMA and start Holding out support I might go to 5050 Um but we'll see that'll wrap it up for The video thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe to into the Crypts premium we do have the sale links In the description below we have the Risk levels for a lot of different Cryptocurrencies and again while we talk About all this stuff on shorter term Time frames guys I just you know get Into the market at low risk levels I get Out of the market at high risk levels That's about it thank you guys for Tuning in I'll see you next time bye


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