Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Provide an update to the bull market Support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out into the cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse decom Let's go and jump in so we have seen a Pretty nice move by Bitcoin back up this Past week it went up about 78% and this is in line with some of the Things we talked about in the sense that His torically well at least last cycle We saw Bitcoin stay above its bull Market sport band until Bitcoin Dominance had topped now that raises the Question well how do you know where Bitcoin dominance has topped um I've Provided my reasoning many times over The last two and a half years as to why I don't think Bitcoin dominance has Topped I ultimately think it's probably Going to top somewhere around 60% so Because I think that I think it makes Sense for Bitcoin to you know still chop Around and and one of the reasons is Simply because when you think about you Know all Bitcoin pairs as long as There's liquidity there Bitcoin can tap Into that liquidity to use as sort of Fuel to stay above its 20we SMA one Thing to remember last cycle in in 2019

Just before rate Cuts arrived one thing To remember is that e Bitcoin actually Bottomed Before Bitcoin fell below it's 20we Moving average right you see that pretty Clearly right eth Bitcoin bottomed Before Bitcoin fell below the 20we Estimate and it makes a lot of sense When you think about it right it really Does because as long as people are Converting their eth to bitcoin Bitcoin Holds the line but Once everyone who's been convinced to Convert has already converted and you've Only now down to the people that are Going to hold no matter what once you Sort of reach that point where nowhere No one is longer converting their eth to Bitcoin there's like a source of Liquidity that sort of dries up and then Bitcoin Falls below the 2 week gu May After all Bitcoin pairs bottom because I Don't think Bitcoin dominance is topped Yet it I mean it really does still seem Somewhat similar now that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't run the highs I've said That before I mean even last year we saw Something like that play out where you Know you had basically a and again There's going to be a lot of people out There that'll say can do more than run The highs right and go much higher and Again like I I I've said before I'm not going to try to stand in in in

The way I I just think heavy you know Bitcoin heavy would make more sense than Altcoin heavy until dominance is it 60% Bitcoin gives you more Expo or gives you Exposure to the upside it minimizes your Downside risk it's hard to say right I Don't have a crystal ball but even in 2023 you know Bitcoin started to get a Little bit of a rally here about week Nine or so right really about yeah Around week nine or so and from here you Know we last week was week nine and so That that seems somewhat familiar right And here you can see it actually ended Up sweeping the highs but there's Another Counterpoint though to sweeping The highs and that's sort of your your 2019 rally where it didn't actually Quite make it to the high right it was It ended up being a lower High um and It's similar type of thing right I we Had we sort of had a June High a lower High in July and then another lower high In August so sort of three back to back Um three three these highs right one Month apart this Cycle theoretically just before rate Cuts you also kind of have the same Thing right you have a high in March and Then you have this lower high in April Now if you connect it to the wick and You take a um sort of a a a price label That would get you around 70k maybe Between 70 to 71k if you connect it to

The the sort of the daily close that Would put you you know maybe slightly Above where we currently are but not a Lot you could also connect these dots And say that's kind of right where we Are right now right connecting that dot To that dot seeing that's where we are But the point right the point is I look I don't know where it's going to go in The short term is the truth the point Though is that we talked about this a Lot where when you get into these trends Like when when Bitcoin is trending down It is it is rallies often and it can Sometimes be dumped but it it what's More effective to break all Bitcoin Pairs down are rallies by Bitcoin and When you get back above that 8we SMA Just like you did in 2019 right we got Back above it right here we had a two-e Rally and this here during that two-e Rally Bitcoin dominance absolutely Soared during that twoe rally by Bitcoin USD if we overlay Bitcoin dominance on The chart you'll see what I'm talking About right don't take my word for it Don't trust verify so Bitcoin dominance Opened up that week around 67 68% by the Two weeks later it was all the way up Near 71% right it's a huge move in only a Very short period of time I mean 2 to 3% Higher in terms of just going percentage Wise we opened up last week by dominance

Just below 55% right so that could Theoretically get you to that 57 58% Level which would be in line with sort Of what we talked about where Bitcoin Dominance swept the high a month ago it Takes about 5 to six weeks to get back Above it and durably go back go to much Higher levels so that is really playing Out in a really similar fashion so far So again you know if you see Bitcoin Continue the route this is that hard Part for all it's because like it just Seems like there's not a great outcome For all Bitcoin pairs because if Bitcoin Rallies then Bitcoin dominance goes up Right but we also saw a couple of weeks Ago when Bitcoin got this dump over here In April Bitcoin dominance also went up So it's kind of like what I've said for The last two and a half years no matter The direction of Bitcoin USD all Bitcoin Pairs bleed and so that's where I am on This like I mean I I still feel like This is just chopping the altcoin market Up and it's so true though I mean like a Lot of these cryptocurrencies that are I Mean a lot of the altcoins are still Struggling um some of them are still Doing well but most of them are Struggling and again if you were to Overlay say like ethusd onto this chart Like look at ethusd compared to bitcoin I mean Bitcoin hasn't really gone down That much whereas ethusd has has gone

Down quite a lot um and it's because Bitcoin hasn't gone down as much because People are converting their eth to Bitcoin but again I I think that trend Is going to end this summer is my guess Um so yeah bitco still sort of chopping Around this range and very very very Similar to what we saw um not only in 2023 but also in 2019 in both Cases we had Rallies back above the 8we Estima in 2023 when we had that rally we Went to a new High in 2019 when we had that rally it Was a lower high if you if you look at The social risk in 2023 when we went to a new high it was Social risk was around 0.1 to 0.2 today it's a lot lower right to me This really does look similar to you Know to sort of mid 2019 but again I you Know you also have the spot ETFs we Didn't have those you know back in the Day so I'm not I'm not trying to M I'm Not trying to stand on anyone's toes I Don't want to step on anyone's toes here But it does seem somewhat familiar right It does seem somewhat familiar So um but yeah I mean we we did talk About at some point we're going to sort Of Wick down to the bmark sport band and Normally on that Wick like you often see You sort of get a knee a kneejerk Reaction off of it right and that's

Actually a pretty common thing you see It right there too that was actually a Twoe rally as well but a lot of times You'll sort of get like sort of like a Knee-jerk reaction off that 20we moving Average and it'll go back up but if it Comes back down to it that's where sort Of the real test is and again that There's no guarantee that we do I mean There there's certainly examples of like 2017 where you only sort of get these Wicks right there are examples like that Um so that is you know if you if you Want to see a left translated Peak That's what it would look like you know Um but if you don't get a left Translated Peak and it's just sort of a Normal or again this is sort of the the Thing that no one will want to talk About there there does exist a scenario Where you have a left translated Peak Where the peak's already in right There's also left translated Peak Scenarios where the peak's not until say Like December or something which I think A lot you know people obviously like That idea a lot more but I think with Investing you always have to consider All possible outcomes right and of Course the idea of a left translative Peak is is notable especially given you Know monetary policy and the context of What we've seen historically and what Happened in in you know sort of the

Election years of of um of of past but I mean right now the 20we SMA for Bitcoin is at 59k 21 we EMA is at 58.7k 8we SMA is at 65.2 so you know historically a lot of Times when you get above the 8we Estimate uh you'll then stay above it For at least a week at least that's what You saw back over here right you saw it Get above it and then one week later it Stayed above it 2019 same thing you got Above it and then we stayed above it the Following week so I think what'll be More interesting is not what happens This week Um but what happens next week right Because this week you might have the the Spot ETF ethereum you know rejection According to the markets again I have no Insight into whether it's going to be Approved or not frankly I don't really Care honestly I would prefer that it Gets approved so that we don't have to Think about it you know that just I mean That's probably I would I would say I Would just prefer it gets approved but If if the markets are right and it Doesn't get approved then that's just More reason for people to convert their Eth to Bitcoin in the short term term Um so I I actually be more interesting In what's going to happen next week not This week because this week you know it Could just be more of the same it could

Just be more of what we saw this past Week right Bitcoin takes fuel from the Altcoin market um and those altcoins Just keep on on bleeding on their Bitcoin pairs so we'll see and by the Way I mean you know certainly other Market some of these markets could also Make you think that all right well maybe It's not even this week uh that it Happens because a lot of times when you Wick down to the 20we you immediately go Up we sort of hesitated this time um so We'll see I mean you could always get a Sort of an intermediate week where it Just sort of slowly comes back down and Then goes back up but my my sort of my Base case that i' and I've been saying This for months is that Bitcoin chops The altcoin market up up here and then Once that liquidity has been bled dry Then Bitcoin you know is free to to sort Of have a a larger correction right and Again that doesn't necessarily have to Mean like you know all doom and gloom But um but who knows I that could still Be weeks away could be months away I Don't know how long the duns are going To hold out they sure as how have held Out longer than I thought they were Going to so um I tip my hat to them but That's where we stand right now um I'd Like to you know I'd like to see kind of Where where this where this ultimately Pans out over the next two weeks I think

The next two weeks are going to be Fairly instrumental and sort of defining Whether this is sort of a mid 20109 style event or something different The next couple of weeks should Define That um so uh we will see think we're go And wrap it up there thank you guys for Tuning in again we do have into the Cryptoverse premium and into the Cryptoverse decom uh where we talk a lot We talk about a lot more stuff on there Uh than I do on here but um or we go Into more you know more detail and and We talk a lot about other other markets As well so make sure you check that out Links to the description below uh but Other than that I will see you guys next Time and thumbs up on the video if you Don't mind see you guys next time bye


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