Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out into the cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom Let's go ahead and jump in so we have a New week here the 20we Ese and the 21 we EMA have continued to slowly move higher They now range from 54,000 830 up to 56180 or so um so approximately just 55 To 56k more importantly one of the shorter Term moving averages that we have said Will come into play over the next few Months is in fact the 8-week moving Average which is currently just higher Than where the price of Bitcoin is right Now at 67,8 39 so the 8-week moving average is Actually about $1,000 higher than the Price of Bitcoin at least at the time That I'm making this video by the time You're watching it uh obviously the Price of Bitcoin could be different but That is where we are and this is this is Precisely the moving average that we Previously said that we're likely going To interact with quite a lot here over The next couple of months and we can go Back and look at a lot of examples of

Bitcoin interacting with the 8 week Estimate after it cools off and not only Can you look back at prior Market Cycles You can also just simply look at this Market cycle and see instances where Bitcoin finds itself below the 8we SMA and we find ourselves there once Again now historically what we've seen We've seen basically there's two cases Where Bitcoin got below the 8we SMA and Then pretty quickly got back above it so If I were to point those out you can see This this case right here get below that 8we Ese and then it quickly got back Above it basically the following week we Also saw that same thing happen right Here right gets below the 8we SMA long Wick down and then just gets right back Above it the following week what's Interesting is that if you look at this If you sort of break it up into three Moves right so we we've talked a little Bit about this before but sort of your Your first wave your second one and then Your Third the first wave had a pretty short Period below its 8we SMA the second wave Though had a much longer period below Its 8we SMA and it actually guided the 8we SMA actually guided Bitcoin down to The bull market support ban Coincidentally at around the same time Of the year so so last year we saw Bitcoin go below its 8we estimate in May

We're almost in May and then it Essentially guided it down to the Bullmark sport band uh we had a wick Down to it in late May and then we were Actually getting Wicks below it in in June So in this case you have your first wave Where your first Wick here below the 8we SMA was relatively short Liv just like It was over here you have a second move Up and then now it's starting to fade Again and so this is and again obviously In the short term bitcoin's up but again The speculation that I I I previously Have outlined many many times is that This was basically what was going to Happen because what what essentially Should theoretically happen is that Bitcoin bounces around up here for a Little while so that it chops the Altcoin market up on their Bitcoin pairs Right that's exactly what we've seen Happen before and I do think at least Based on historical Seasonality um that we could see Something like that once again where we Just sort of you know hang around in This area for a while but during that Period all Bitcoin pairs get chopped up Now there's an interesting thing that I Want to tie everything back together With and it's basically what happened Going into June um last year and going Going into June last year we essentially

Had this thing where Bitcoin was fading Back to the 20we SMA and then it it held It as support okay and then we got Another move up now I mentioned that There's a decent chance we see Bitcoin Fade Into the bull market support band Into May in June right I I've said that Many many times but I've also said that You know you're not just going to go Down there in a straight line As you've seen with all these other Periods over here it it's a very slow Process to get down there right a very Slow process to get down there and it Can take a while right it can it can it Can certainly take a while to see that Actually play Out But there's something that's really Really interesting about this trend if We sort of Peel back the layers a little Bit and it all relates back to you Guessed it the dominance of Bitcoin now I want to Overlay the dominance of Bitcoin onto this chart and you will see How really when it when it first found This local top about a year ago and Started to fade right you can see it Started to fade Bitcoin dominance did Get a pullback initially right you can See that it got a pullback but you might Think well the reason Bitcoin dominance Went back up was because Bitcoin went up And there may be some truth to that

Statement but if you look really closely And you draw a line at where Bitcoin USD Got that major bounce off the 20we SMA You can see that Bitcoin dominance had Already started to turn around before That right so Bitcoin dominance turned Around here even as Bitcoin USD was Still bleeding to its 20we SMA and even Slightly below it right you see that you See how dominance had already gone up a Lot and then Bitcoin USD went up and Then of course Bitcoin dominance up went Up with it but dominance was already Going up before Bitcoin USD saw that Move now the reason why that this is an Important factor for Bitcoin USD is if You look at Bitcoin dominance excluding Stable coins you will see in fact that Every summer June and then July right And then here June June potentially June June again every time we get into the Summer month At least recently during this this Entire business cycle or the rate hiking Cycle essentially we've seen this was Slightly before it we've seen dominance Go up into June okay we've seen it go up Into June and I think that dominance Excluding Stables is going to be going Up to about 64% this summer meaning Dominance including Stables should Theoretically find itself out around 60% Right so you can see that would be 60 4% Dominance including Stables is currently

At 55 that would get it to that 60% Level but what you'll notice is that There were two of these Junes it tagged The trend line but then the third June It did not and I think I have an Explanation for that of course it is Easy to come up with explanations in Hindsight it's one of the benefits of Hindsight right but overlay Bitcoin USD Onto this chart right look at this do You see how in the I'm trying to stall As the price loads do you see how in the First tag of this trend line it was Actually after Bitcoin USD fell right so Bitcoin USD fell and as it fell Dominance hit the trend line you see That pretty clearly right then over here When dominance excluding Stables hit the Trend line it was while Bitcoin USD was Falling you You could argue that Bitcoin Dominance excluding Stables was going to Hit the trend line last June as Bitcoin USD was fading but instead we got a Another Bitcoin pump last minute and Then it still faded for the rest of the Summer but that was enough to keep the Dominance excluding staes from actually Tagging the upper part of that trend Line right so what if you get this time You get basically the same thing that Happened last year but what if there Isn't that final pump in June that sort Of keeps it from hitting the top of the Trend line right so again it's not a

Sure thing I I still think Bitcoin heavy Crypto portfolio is is is going to be Better than altcoin heavy because I Think dominance is going to go up to This level but I just want to explore That idea very briefly because there Does exist a scenario where that ha Where that could theoretically happen And the way that that could actually Work out if I were to go back over here And pull up Bitcoin USD you can compare it to this cycle of Course but you can also compare it to Prior Cycles right the the 20we SME and The 8we SME and there's three main Periods that I like to compare this to The first one and it's probably the one I I put the most value in because it was During a similar phase of the cycle as It pertains to monetary policy and high Interest rates and quantitative Tightening is 2019 and you can see that In 2019 after after Bitcoin got its First weekly close below the 8we SMA it Then rallied back up slightly above it Right which is you know potentially what You're seeing happen right now right We've seen a little bit of a rally here Over the last week or so and as this as Bitcoin's going up right now you can see That dominance of Bitcoin is actually Going up with it right remember in 2021 When Bitcoin USD got this little rally Right here Bitcoin dominance went down

Now we're starting to see Bitcoin Dominance go up a little that might not Be the fairest statement because we did See Bitcoin dominance get a pretty big Pullback but for me it's hard to say That Bitcoin dominance is in a big Pullback when now it seems like it's Just trying to hold support the same Range that it previously was helding Resistance at for a long time that a lot Of people thought was the top now it Seems like it's just holding what people Thought was the top four months ago it's Now holding that level as support right In fact that level of support was right Around or that level of resistance Previously was 55% now it seems like Bitcoin dominance is trying to hold Above 50 5% so you can see that there Does exist a scenario where it just Simply plays out like that right where Bitcoin USD is doing the same thing that It did back over here right where it Gets below the 8 week it's it gets a Twoe rally back above it it then chops Around for a little bit and then it and Then it falls okay so there's something To be said about that potential outcome Again it doesn't have to play out like That I know a lot lot of people are Calling for much higher Bitcoin USD Prices I would encourage you to to see Those other views because there's always A chance it's a left translated cycle

And we get a much earlier Peak uh than a Lot of people are thinking um in terms Of in terms of the entire Market cycle But I do think that that is one thing to Look at because there was sort of a Midcycle Slowdown last cycle now this Cycle that midcycle slowdown hasn't Really occurred but arguably it hasn't Occurred because we haven't seen seen The rate cutting part of the market Cycle yet which is what we saw over here This was sort of the rate cutting part Of the cycle we haven't reached that Point so we can't say for sure that that Won't happen you know um I I still think There's a chance that it could play out Like that and so when you look at this What you should see theoretically happen Is that as Bitcoin USD chops around in This range you know maybe going slightly Above the 8we SMA going back below it Kind of something like that the next Month or so look to see Bitcoin Dominance make that move to the higher Levels now do you remember what we said Earlier when Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables hit the top of the trend line Here in June 2021 and in June 2022 it didn't in June 2023 right but I Think the reason is because Bitcoin got This move rather than sort of Capitulating down like the prior 2 Junes It got that move and kept the dominance From actually going back up to the top

Of the trend line as there then was Renewed interest in the altcoin market Sometimes when Bitcoin stays flat at a Certain level like that above its 20we SMA and it's not continuing to push Higher then there can be a shorter term Rotation into altcoins now you can see That's what exactly happened but Dominance has still continue to go up on A much larger scale so what if there's This scenario where Bitcoin spends the Next couple of months chopping up the Altcoin market up Here right and then you potentially get Into June and and then we are looking at This June where you got a move up but Instead of another move up what if you Just get a move down below the 20we SMA I still think there's this process that Should theoretically play out where Bitcoin dominance tops before Bitcoin USD Falls below the 20we estimate or it Could correspond to that same week right That same week that Bitcoin closes below The 20we SMA could be this the time when Bitcoin dominance theoretically tops and There's an interesting thing to look at Here as to how it could theoretically Relate to the macro and that's if you Sort of if you assume that this is where We are we're currently in the in the Rally basically back up to the 8we SMA In July of 2019 if you assume that That's essentially where we are right

Now and and that the the the Market's Just going to slowly fade off and on put In lower highs as that bull market Support band slowly catches up Then um then look to see what the Altcoin market does if if I'm wrong what It would mean is that all Bitcoin pairs Would not go down right so I think all Bitcoin pairs are going to go down Throughout this period here I I think All Bitcoin pairs will go down Throughout that period if that is in Fact where we are if that's not where we Are and we're somewhere else in the Cycle not just before rate Cuts kind of Like over here then you might see all Bitcoin pairs do something different Right but you know I remember back in 2019 seeing us get back below the 8we SMA rallying back up to it the following Week seeing another weekly close above It the week after that and then fading Down and then you know what happened is That what essentially happened is that If you take this sort of this date range Here from the current week that we're Theoretically in it took about 8 weeks After that or so uh to see your first Weekly close below the bull market Support band and the reason why that is Kind of interesting is because 8 weeks From now would put us out in in June Right and June is precisely the time Where I've said that you could see

Bitcoin dominance come back up to the Top of this wedge and it could Correspond to bitcoin falling below its 20we moving average in June um it could also occur before that But there's another macro reason why That could come into play right there's Another macro reason why you might Actually see it fall below the 20we SME In June and it actually goes back to the To the unemployment rate right so if you Actually go look at the unemployment Rate and we pull that up one of the Things you may note is that last year There's there there's some seasonality Associated with it so if you look at Last year you can see there was a top by The unemployment rate a local top in February it then fell in March and April And then it got a big move up in May Right now remember we get the data one Month later so if this says may that Means we got this data point in June Right but essentially it dropped from 36 To 35 to 34 starting in February look at This this is February started at 39 Though 39 to 38 instead of what we saw Last time last year it was 36 to 35 now If this pattern continues to repeat Which it probably won't but if it did Then it would mean the unemployment rate Could still potentially go down on the Next data point potentially back down to 3.7 right if it were to follow this now

I'm not saying that it will but if it Does go to 3.7 it might give everyone The assumption that we're just sort of Going back down but what if then in June Which would be the May data point which Is this one you see it go here last year It went from 34 to 37 in a single month So what happens if we bleed down to 37 By the next data point and then in June We get the May data point that gets it The 4% I've said many times that 4% Unemployment rate is when is when the FED will start to pay attention 4% so if We hit 4% unemployment rate in May it Means that that data Point's not going To come until June right so when we get The May data point it will actually be For April so then theoretically if there Is some seasonality associated with this And you get a spike in the unemployment Rate in May you're not going to see that Reflected until till June and so the way That could potentially play out on the Bitcoin USD chart is you basically spend The next couple of months you know Chopping around this range as all Bitcoin pairs drop while Bitcoin USD Stays strong right again I've said that Forever that what you would likely see Going into the summer is for Bitcoin to Sort of spend some time up in this range Chopping the altcoin market up kind of Like what it did over here which is Basically exactly a year ago and also

What it did over here in 2019 where it Chopped the altcoin market up now again I know a lot of people would look at This and say well why can't it play out The same way why can't it just go back To the 20we SMA and hold it as support And then get a rally into June just like We saw last year in fact in 2019 we had A rally into June where Bitcoin put in a Higher high so I don't want to sit here And say that it can't happen and I will Continue to remind you that the biggest Counterpoint to all of my views would be The views that other people Express About a left translated Peak and I bring Those views up not to dunk on those Views but to say there's some validity To those views and you should consider That view in my opinion in your Investing Journey right it's a valid View that has Merit we've seen those Types of Market Cycles before where Where you know you'll essentially see The market top out in the election year It happened in 2000 it happened in March Of 2000 right there's an uncomfortable Truth that you know the top could be rdn And it' be a left translated Peak that's One option it's not my base case but There's other cases where you have left Translated Peaks where the Peaks occur In the summer of the election year that Was in the 1970s you have another Example in the 1940s or sorry no that

Was in the in the 1940s the top the Local top occurred in the summer in the 1970s during High inflation we saw a Local top in December of the election Year so the biggest case to sort of go Against my view is if there's a left Translated Peak which does have evidence For it again it does and you might say Well how do you how do you resolve that With your view of a potential summer Lull and again guys the whole way you Resolve it is to is to just have Bitcoin Right I mean like you know that way if Bitcoin stays elevated or goes up you're You're hedged for that and if it goes Down if Bitcoin were to go down um then It's probably going to go down less than The altcoin market right and even if it Does go down you still could have a While before that even plays out right So the reason why Bitcoin dominance Could theoretically top this summer is Because I could Envision a scenario Where the unemployment rate hits 4% this Summer now you might say well if the Unemployment rate hits 4% wouldn't that Cause altcoins just to drop more than Bitcoin it's true that it could lead to The final capitulation of all Bitcoin Pairs but the only thing the employment Rate hitting 4% means is that the fed's Likely going to come to the rescue and Start lowering interest rates and If the Fed starts lowering interest rates then

People that were basically sticking with Only Bitcoin because of higher monetary Or stricter monetary policy might Actually Branch out to the altcoin Market more now the problem with that in The short term is that while that can be A a longer term useful strategy because Last cycle we actually saw all Bitcoin Pairs bottom out before alt USD pairs if You look last cycle alt Bitcoin pairs Bottomed out in September of 2019 right When the FED cut interest rates U or Sorry right after the FED cut interest Rates when they shifted from Quantitative tightening to quantitative Easing right that's when all Bitcoin Pairs bottomed right here and it was After the local top by Bitcoin USD was In but then the altcoin market bled for A few months on their USD pairs not Their Bitcoin pairs but on their USD Pairs after that happened and I think That's why Bitcoin dominance could Theoretically top as we fall below or Maybe just before we fall below the 20we Moving Average okay so that is kind of my base Case at the moment is that Bitcoin USD Chops around in this Range breaks the all Bitcoin pairs down So that by the time it's June and Bitcoin dominance gets another rally on Potentially a Bitcoin USD drop that is Then theoretically when you could see

The dominance excluding Stables go to The top of this this trend Line again last year it didn't hit it But we also had another Spike by Bitcoin USD the last two times we hit the wedge It was after it was right as Bitcoin was Was was dropping so I could see a Scenario like that where all Bitcoin Pairs bleed for the next two months they Bought them out this summer and then all USD pairs go down until Bitcoin stops Going down and then when Bitcoin USD Starts to go back up um because the FED Is cut it off and they've and they've Switched back to Q Then all USG pairs go up but they go up They lead because then there's that's Why I mean that's why Everyone likes Al Is because they tend to outperform in a Bull market but I think what people Messed up over the last two and a half Years is that they outperform in a QE Bull market but in a qtb market Bitcoin Outperforms and that's why you can see That the dominance of Bitcoin has Basically been going up since May of 20121 right and that was actually when The social risk actually topped out was In May of of 2021 you can look at the Social risk right here and see that Retail was was mostly here in May of 2021 and ever since then social risk has Been putting in lower highs um so I I Know W with regards to bitcoin USD I

Think that the the the interaction with The 8-week moving average is going to be Key over the next few weeks right and Again I'm not saying we can't go above It the 8we SMA is again it's about $1,000 higher than the current price It's it's you know it's around 67,800 or or so 678 679 so it's not that You can't go above it and in fact in 2021 when we got a bounce kind of coming Out of of late April it went above the 8we SME and in 2019 when we got a bounce Coming out of of sort of a weekly close Below it it went above the 8we ese right So you have two examples where it went Above the 8we ese you also have some Examples where it doesn't and that it Basically looks at last year right so if You look at last year during sort of the Second wave we got below the 8 we we did Got a we got a rally back up to it but It was ultimately rejected and then we Went back down to that bull Mark sport Bend but by the time we got back down Here upon the rejection by the 8we That's where Bitcoin dominance started To go up it was when it got rejected by The 8we SMA so if we were to get Rejected by the 8we SMA it actually Might cause all Bitcoin pairs to drop as Well um because the only reason they're Probably up as they're speculating that Bitcoin is going to continue to run the Thing to watch and I've said this many

Many times look at e Bitcoin it's not Going up right now right it it's Continuing to drop and that's basically Your Telltale sign for the altcoin Market it doesn't mean that some of them Aren't showing a little bit of strength In the short term on their Bitcoin pairs But look at e Bitcoin I mean it's it's Not really doing that well at the Current time and if it were to get a Balance I still would argue that it's Going to be rejected at around 053 which is where the bullmark sport Bin is somewhere between 053 and 054 Again no guarantee that it gets up there In the first place so again I would keep An eye on that 8we ese for Bitcoin and I I do wonder if like last year we're Going to basically look at this play out Right and and I wonder if people are Going to then assume that you're going To get a a move into June which you Could right if it's a left translative Peak you very well could but what Happens if it bleeds into the Summer and then instead of getting that Bounce in June what happens if you get An unemployment rate print at 4% and Then instead of getting a bounce up like That it then goes below the 20we estim And then Bitcoin dominance tops out Which is precisely where it topped out Last cycle right when Bitcoin fell below The 20 week s it topped in

September as those rate Cuts were were Were coming in right and so you know I Would I would look to that as a Potential blueprint for what could Theoretically happen getting a little Bit later into this year um but but Again the first thing that needs to Happen I think is that Bitcoin USD just Has to spend a little bit of time Chopping the altcoin market up because The thing is is like this is the way it Works essentially is that Bitcoin will Dump right and then it'll rally and then It'll dump and then it'll rally and you Know the first time it dumps and rallies All Bitcoin pairs get a nice boost the Second time they don't get as big as big Of a drop or they don't give as big of a Jump and you overlay this with eth Bitcoin right so if you overlay this With eth Bitcoin you put this onto the Chart you see how while Bitcoin USD has Been chopping around up here e Bitcoin Just keeps on dropping right the reason Is because the altcoin market can't Catch a bid in the same way as Bitcoin Can and a lot of people are still Converting their altcoins to bitcoin Right so you can very clearly see that That's what's happening is that Bitcoin's chopping around at these highs Just like it did over here and just like It did in 2019 and while it does that Eth Bitcoin goes down down and ALT

Bitcoin pairs go down now on any given Week maybe an altcoin goes up on its Bitcoin pair but most altcoins were just Putting in new lows on their Bitcoin Pairs last week or two weeks ago so I Would I would really focus on this as we Get into the summer because there could Be a a scenario where everyone's looking At it and thinking that it's going to Bounce off the 20we SMA in June but what Happens if we just go below it because The unemployment rate again it's nothing Against Bitcoin it's nothing against you Know crypto it's just what you know if If the macro holds up or Not and so I I do wonder if if that is Is kind of a narrative that a lot of People aren't necessarily looking at is Is you know do you see the labor market Finally show some weakness this summer Which is when it started to show Weakness last summer you know is Basically when we got the June print but We got the June we got the May data in June right we got the May data in June And then you could see it how it would Actually play out out across the entire Crypto verse if you look at all Bitcoin Pairs we know that they broke down one Month before the First Rate cut right And I wonder if this you know if if this Long Wick down where it sets a new low Is similar to this long Wick down where It sets a new low and then the following

Month you see all Bitcoin pairs durably Go below that low right so the following Month would be May and then if remember Last cycle when all Bitcoin pairs fell Below this it was then 1 month later in July where the FED started to cut so you Could get a scenario where all Bitcoin Pairs Dro below the range low in May and Then and then the FED potentially Cuts In June now I know what you're probably Thinking you're like well the odds of a Rate cut right now aren't really that High and you're right I mean they're not But I also know that that stuff can Change relatively quickly so if you were To go look at interest rate Probabilities the market right now is Only expecting about a about a 16 and a Half% chance in June of of the FED going To five and five and a quarter now I Mean if you look here there's there's Actually a 177% chance that they'll cut Um it could be you know there's some People sort of speculating that they Might be down to 5% by then so only About a 17% chance of a cut in June but I mean I think that this number would go Up quite a bit if the first week of June We get an unemployment rate print at 4% Then you could actually get the the the The First Rate cut in June and then Maybe the second one in September and Then skip November because it's an Election year and then maybe the third

One in in December now they have started To walk back uh interest rate cut Expectations uh even the market is only Thinking you're going to get two cuts For basically the next year now that the Market finally believes higher for Longer you're starting to see a lot of These altcoins show a ton of weakness on Their Bitcoin pairs I wouldn't get too Consumed by What's Happening Here in the Short term on this little bounce I said Before even over here we got one little Final bounce uh where it got rejected Below the B Mark Sport fand and then Capitulated down here to the range lows I think something like that is probably Going to to to happen again for alt Bitcoin pairs so the the way that you Could see all Bitcoin pairs go back down Is if you know either Bitcoin rallies Above the 8we SMA or or if it gets Rejected by it I could see either Scenario breaking all Bitcoin pairs down So it should be a process again it could Very well continue to go on for a number Of weeks um there's actually one other Interesting way here in the short term To look at this market and that's to Actually look at Daily candles for Bitcoin USD and what you'll notice is That it looks like it's kind of in a Parallel channel here right so if you Kind of connect the dots with these um With this range right so let me just try

To get this as accurate as possible um So we're going to get those Highs and the lows right so you see We've Connected the top to this top and then This low to these lows right so there's Pretty clearly a channel that Bitcoin is Starting to form right here and I think That if you look at 2019 there was also A channel that was starting to form and And it was also looked really really Similar right I mean Bitcoin USD Essentially started to form this Channel right and then it it essentially Stayed in that channel for a long time And then when it finally broke out and Then it dropped back into it during the Uh during the pandemic crash but you can See that channel there by Bitcoin USD That formed just before those rate Cuts Arrived right you had a a top and then a Lower high in quick succession right in Quick Su Succession you had That and Then a couple months later you had Another lower high or I guess it was Only a month later right um You had Another lower high so two pretty quick In in in quick succession and then about A month later you then had another lower High at the top of that channel so if You were to go look at it right here and Look at a very similar Channel you

Essentially have this One and this one basically back to back Right this is March this is April and Remember in 2019 those first two tops Were were June and July right so you had June and July and then the next one was August a lower high at the top of the Channel and then if you go look over Here you'll see something very similar Right instead of June July and August What if it's March April and May okay so There does still even exist a scenario Where Bitcoin could go north of 70k and Still be in this channel right it Doesn't necessarily mean anything and in Fact if it were to continue this path You'll see here that the next time we Have a Fed meeting is May 1st it's May 1st so the next time we have a Fed Meeting is right here So if Bitcoin rallies into that meeting I mean you can kind of see that it would It would be right right there right and Then what if we go into the meeting and Bitcoin's rallying into the meeting and Everyone's like all right well after the Meeting it's going to go to the moon and Then the FED just comes out and and you Know squashes everyone's hopes and Dreams of rate Cuts once again and then The market all Bitcoin pairs finally Finally capitulate in May right which Again kind of looks similar to to to What we saw back over here right where

They kind of got this final bounce back Up not even to the bull marks where it Been got close but if that's kind of the Same thing that's happening here and Then they just sort of top out and then They capitulate into May and then the FED Cuts in June so you could see the FED come out in in May very you know Very much meaning business like Hey We're not going to cut but don't listen To what the FED says watch what they do And I I can practically guarantee you Again I was saying that the Fed was Going to go to 5 a half% when we were Basically back at 2% and now that the Market believes that we're only going to Get two cuts over the next year it's That very Act of believing that that Potentially means it's not going to Happen the pricing out of rate Cuts will Likely cause them to get priced back in So I don't know exactly how high Bitcoin Is going to go here in the short term Obviously with the channel where it is Um a lower high could still Theoretically be just north of 70k it Could be below 70k right now we're Actually kind of at the midpoint of the Channel um so that could offer some Resistance for a little bit too um I Don't really know I you know I don't Really have a great ability to predict Short-term moves in Bitcoin it might Just get rejected here and go straight

Down to the 20we SMA I mean how the uh The S&P has already gone to the 20we SMA And so too has the NASDAQ the nasdaq's Actually below it and the Russell is Actually below it so I I don't see any Reason why Bitcoin can't go there but The other reason why I'm not so Optimistic about Bitcoin holding its 20we es in June and potentially seeing The final capitulation of all Bitcoin Pairs in June is because normally you Would expect to see the bullmark sport Band get tested about every two to three Months in order to hold it as support Right in in 2017 as long as we were Testing it every two to three months we Held it as support but then once we Basically went longer and we went like You know 5 months we failed to hold it As support same thing in 2019 right we We got above it in April but we didn't Get back down to it until September so That was about 5 months later and then We failed to hold it as support same Thing right here we got above it in October or we held it at in October and Then we fell below it um in in May right So um normally when you know when you See it hold as support it's because We're testing it every you know every Two to three months right but the Problem here and I said I think this Might come back to B us one day is we Didn't actually test it in January we

Didn't actually test it as support and So what that means is that it's actually Been about 27 weeks since we last tested It so if you compare that to these last Two times that's 31 32 weeks and 20 late 2020 early 2021 and then in 2019 from from getting you know holding It as or getting above it to then when We tested it was 25 weeks later I mean These are give or take a week which I'm Not getting it exact right now we're at 27 weeks right so it's already been a Long time and that's why I'm not as Optimistic as holding it as support and Again the biggest Counterpoint to all of My stuff is to consider the left Translated cycle Peak Theory right Consider that theory as the biggest Evidence for why my view might not be Correct on this um because there are you Know there there there certainly is some Evidence to suggest that and there's a Lot of other people that talk about that And you know I I've Looked at their what they have and I can Even pull up charts that show similar Types of things um but I do think that The the breakdown of eth Bitcoin kind of Changes the uh the calculus on this Stuff right I mean eth Bitcoin has Broken down and and it's not showing Strength it's not showing strength which To me kind of represents that the Consumer is starting to falter right DJ

Aren't DJing as much anym more because This thing just keeps on going down it Hasn't found a low and by the way this Low here was in June this low here was In June and if you connect the dots on Those Lows and you go to here this June that Puts you at around 0375 which 0375 is basically what I've Said is the target for me for E Bitcoin For the last two and a half years at Least on ITC premium I don't know how Many times I've said it on on the public Channel but 0375 is something I've said For for quite a long period of time and Again this low was in June this low was In June and then this low was also in June we didn't actually go all the way Down but remember Bitcoin also got that Bounce in June um so I I I think there's A lot of different ways that you can Kind of look at this market and dissect It again I do I personally think that The altcoin market is still bleeding Back to Bitcoin and I think capitulation of all Bitcoin pairs is likely going to occur Um you know probably you know I mean I I Think we're we we we're already in the Process of it I just think this is sort Of the final dead cap bounce of all Bitcoin pairs before they enter into Their final capitulation which probably Takes place in in May June and July um

And they could bottom out in June but I You know sometime like May June July I I Think we might actually see all Bitcoin Pairs bottom out another piece of Evidence for that view is that if you Look at he at this part right here when All Bitcoin pairs bottomed out they Actually bottomed out when social risk Started to form a sort of a base in in a In a higher low right so they bottomed Out in September of 2019 after the Social RIS bottomed over here it bounced And it came back down it was that higher Low by social risk where Bitcoin Dominant or where all Bitcoin pairs Bottomed and you can see that social Risk put in this low it's bounced and Then now I feel like it might come back Down here and form some type of a macro Higher low where then theoretically all Bitcoin pairs bu them out this summer Because a lot of times in the summer People don't care as much about trading Cryptocurrencies and therefore if the Bid disappears for altcoins then they Bleed against Bitcoin and the bid's been Disappearing for altcoins for a long Time at least as it pertains to their Bitcoin pairs so those are my views on The market um Bitcoin is is basically Doing pretty much what what it normally Does after getting a close below the 8we Estimate right it rallies back up to it And it tries to to test it it's doing

The same exact thing that it is done Every single one of these moves every Single one of these moves the same exact Thing so you should not be surprised and In fact remember on all these videos That we've been talking about Bitcoin Dominance Bitcoin dubious speculation The bull Mark sport band it was always Once you come back down here and you Sweep the low then you can potentially Go back up to that 8we moving average And it will be the interaction of Bitcoin USD with the 8we SMA that should Theoretically cause all Bitcoin pairs to Continue to drop and you can see it Happening now right you can see that Bitcoin dominance is starting to Slightly go back up you can even see That eth Bitcoin is continuing its slow Drop down it's taking place over a very Long period of time but it is still Taking place it is still taking place so That's my general thoughts here on the Market um and you know if if we do take Out all of these highs and it's not just Sort of sweeping the high kind of like What you saw over here where we we kind Of went back up and swept the high if we Take out that high and then hold it as Support then I would say there's a ton Of evidence that there would be a lot More evidence for a left translated Peak If that happens but if on the other hand It just kind of does this midcycle

Correction where all Bitcoin pairs Bottom out this summer and then alt USD Pairs finally capitulate then it might Just play out like a normal cycle right And you might say well isn't it kind of Late in the cycle for us to see Something like that not necessarily Right I mean again if you look at if you Look at all Bitcoin Pairs and you take a Bar pattern from from this Um I don't know why I always forget Where this stuff is but uh if you take a Bar pattern sort of from this Capitulation there to that alt season That occurred And you just sort of overlay that there Right that has alt season that has these All Bitcoin pairs topping out in q1 of 2026 which is when they topped out in 2018 right and you can even see kind of How you would connect the dots you know I mean so I I I don't really think that It's too late in the cycle for something Like that to happen I really don't I I Think that the cycle is throwing us a Curveball and making a lot of people Think that it's a left translated Peak The peak occurs a lot earlier but what Happens if it's just a midcycle top that Causes Bitcoin to bleed you know for a While this year making people give up on On it and then and then we just pick up In 2025 as as the FED has gone back to much

Looser monetary policy you know there's Certainly a chance that that could Happen and by the way just like 2019 Bitcoin did not put in a new low but a Lot of altcoins did you know I mean and You can kind of understand how that Could happen because you know Bitcoin is So far above its highs that even if it Were to get a big drop into these prior Ranges like I mean 2019 it actually Dropped to the 100 we moving average That's where it actually dropped down to As those rate Cuts arrived right it Dropped to the 100 we moving average Right here I mean you can even see that It rallied above the 100 we SMA about 100% here it rallied above it over 100% Too right um so I mean you can certainly Imagine how something like that you know Just going back there if if Bitcoin can Drop back to that level or even close to That level and altcoins are already Barely off their lows they're only like 2x a lot of them are only 2x off their Lows that's how those altcoins can put In new lows even in a situation where Say Bitcoin uh doesn't um and so that's Why you know when you're in these Market Cycles and you're in a quantitative Tightening period and a higher interest Rate period it makes sense in my mind to Just stay Bitcoin heavy as the Bitcoin Dominance just continues to slowly grind Higher right and then you know everyone

Keeps dreaming of all season but all Season that you want doesn't really Occur until sometime well after the FED Is pivoted to lose some monetary policy And usually it's not right when they Pivot it's when they it's usually by the Last rate cut right so by the last rate Cut that's when the alt season that you Want probably finally arrives until then I think Bitcoin dominance is going to go Up and I think it's going to go to 60% And I would I would continue to look at Bitcoin USD up in this range to interact With its 8we moving average and for it To chop the altcoin market up in this Range as the bull market support band Slowly comes up here to meet it Potentially either in May or June and Then we'll have to figure out do you get A bounce off of it like last Summer or does it capitulate below it Like it did over here in 2019 after eth Bitcoin broke down and after gold broke Out which by the way are two things two Events that have already happened the Only event that hasn't really happened That you know has me again there's Always a reason to hedge right the only Reason that that I I'm you know Continuing to sort of put out that left Translated idea for those that that want To hedge is because all Bitcoin pairs Technically haven't broken down yet Right technically they haven't you know

I think they're just in the final Deadcat bounce here before they before They break down that's what I think and I think they should stay below 045 right They're at 043 now I think they'll stay I don't I think there they should stay Below 045 you can see on this dead cat Balance they did not make it back above That 20we moving average so as long as They stay below that and then they roll Over into the summer months then it's Just playing out exactly like it did Over here in in 2019 again if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and again check out into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse outcom and I'll see you guys Next time bye