Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be providing an update to the bull Market support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and Jump in so Bitcoin is still trading Right around $43,000 this is essentially the same Price that it's been at for the last Couple of months um you can see that we Came into this range in early December And we find ourselves at essentially the Same price that we were two months ago And the only thing that's really changed Since then is that these longer term Moving averages right you know your Bullart your 20we SMA your 21 we EMA Those have slowly climbed to catch up to Where price is Right and so if you were to look at say You know the extension the short term Bubble risk right the the extension from The 20we moving average while bitcoin's Price has remained relatively constant You can see that the extension from the 20we SMA is slowly going back down not That dissimilar from what we saw back You know back in May of 2023 right where We had this pretty aggressive move up

And then the price of Bitcoin basically Just went arguably sideways for for Several months before then hitting the Bull market support band right I mean You can see pretty clearly here once we Had this push up right there it took About 12 weeks or so for Bitcoin to get Back to the 20we moving average right so If you were to look at this weekly Candle here we're currently on week nine Right week nine now I should say there's No guarantee that we test the 20we SMA In the short term right there is no Guarantee and I I've said this many many Times sometimes when Bitcoin gets moving It can go months without testing it I Mean look what happened over here in Late 2020 and early 2021 I mean we Basically tested it in October of 2020 And we didn't retest it again until the Following May so there are occasions Where you simply do not test it as soon As you might think you would right I Mean if you you could already argue We've taken longer than than what we Previously saw right I mean from from Right here from January early January Until this test was about 8 weeks and Then from leaving the 21 we EMA right There to testing it right here is about 10 weeks and then leaving it here to Here was about eight weeks but if you go Out from late octo mid October it's Already been 16 weeks right so it's

Already been a a longer period of time Than it normally Is now there's good things and bad Things associated with that right I mean If if that's the case then it means Bitcoin has been relatively strong for a Long time it it's gone four months Without testing the 20we ese the Counterpoint of course is that the Longer it takes to test it the more Likely we might not hold it we're still In arguably territory now where we could Hold it if we were to go back down to it I mean if you go look at at even the the 2016 2017 2015 moves right I mean you Can we went 3 to 4 months but the Problem is if you go say you know 18 20 Weeks you're starting to get into Territory where it's been it's been a Long time I mean like you know here's an Example of 14 weeks here's an example of Of 13 weeks so it it's also like 2019 Right where you had you didn't really Get a clear test of it for a long period Of time right we left it in April and Then we didn't really get back down to It until 25 weeks later so um again Looking at it today we got above it mid October and it's been about 16 months Okay it's been about 16 months um and And so about about or sorry about 16 Weeks so about about four months since We've tested the the 20we SMA and i' I've talked before about you know this

Idea that Bitcoin at least historically Doesn't mean that it has to right but at Least historically it does come back Down into the bull market support band In about February of the having year Right like it happened last cycle it Happened the cycle before that and the Cycle before that right again not Suggesting that it has to happen if Anything you know you should not assume That history has to repeat itself but It's just to say hey guys like if we do Go down to the bull market support band Then that is is essentially the noise For this time in the cycle in fact if You were to look at the year-to DAT Roi Of Bitcoin in 2024 and compare it to 2020 and 2016 and 2012 you can see that it's actually Quite common for Bitcoin to you know to Basically not go anywhere for the first Few months I mean it can it can move up A little bit can move down a little bit I mean in 2020 obviously moved down a Lot but it also moved up a lot in the First part of 2020 it's pretty normal for Bitcoin to Basically do much of nothing for the First you know 100 to 125 days right That's actually pretty standard and so That would take you all the way out Until you know March or April right and You could even you know you could even Do something like take the average of

Prior election years and see that you Know we're slightly underperforming the Average Um but we are still very much in line With historical you know historical Moves right we're still in line with Expectations I mean we are slightly Below where we normally are at this Point um but we're not that much further Down below it okay and so this is an Important thing to think about and and And the reason why I showed this chart Is Because if Bitcoin were to continue this Type of price action right if it were to Continue this type of price action then It's only a matter of time before the 20we estim catches up to bitcoin you Know sometimes Bitcoin goes down to the 20we moving average which of course Could happen and it and it did occur in In May of 2023 and it occurred in March Of 2023 and it also occurred in in August of 2023 so we know that that can certainly Happen um but again what I'm suggesting Is that the longer that takes the higher The 20we SMA is just simply going right I mean in fact if Bitcoin were to Simply Go down to the prior Wick that it hit Last or a couple weeks ago that would Actually now correspond to the bull Market support band right because the 20we SMA 21 we EMA they've they've

Essentially been pulled higher now there Are other patterns we could look at Right we we've talked about the 8we Moving average and how it does tend to You know provide support in in in in an Uptrend like if you're in an aggressive Uptrend you would expect that 8we SMA to Hold as support right you can see that It did it many times in late 2020 and Early 2021 and if you were to go back to 2019 You can see that Bitcoin basically Stayed above the 8we moving average and Then once it got below it while it did Pop back up above it it was unable to Take out that prior high from from June Okay and so you know looking at it today We did go below the 8we moving average But only slightly and we got right back Above it the following week so I I would Argue that you need more data to to come To any aggressive conclusion um because Well I guess we didn't get above it the Following week but it took about a Couple of weeks we did get back above it On a wick but it took a couple of weeks And we got right back above it the 8we Moving average right now is at 42,500 so if we get back below that then With a weekly close then it would Suggest the likelihood of going back to The 20we SMA increases quite a bit There's also a little pattern over here Right a similar type of pattern where

You got up into these highs you got Below the 8we Ese and then you got right Back above it only Then Fall still back Down to the bull market sport band right Same thing here we had a wick below the 8 week we got right back above it and Then down to the when got May and then We went Up over here right these were more a Little bit more clearcut but you know Flirting with that 8we moving average Again right here and again right here And and it could take right it can take A little while to to resolve that um so I just wanted to show that this is still Within the realm of of what we've seen And we we also suggested that we would Get a a pullback in mid January okay Right we we talked about that for a a Long time a pull back in mid January and You know so far I mean we did get we did Get a pullback right I mean it might not Be as much as people want but it was in Line with prior pullbacks that we've Seen right about 20 21% or so Um these are all 21% pullbacks 20 to 22% Pullbacks which is basically what we Just saw so that is in line with the Pullbacks that we've seen throughout uh All of 2023 and and again if you were to go Back to the 20we SMA right like if you Were to do something like this where you Get a bounce then you come back down um

You get a bounce and you come back down Right if you do something like that Could still end up being around the same Percentage draw down from that from that Local high right that we put in going Into the into the spot ETF Um so in that regard it's still pretty Standard and and actually if you look at At at 2019 we we had similar types of of Draw Downs you know That were pretty shallow drops right Pretty shallow drops throughout that Entire move and once you actually got a Larger drop right of 30% right once that Larger pullback finally came and people Celebrated oh great we finally had a 30% Pullback let's buy the dip at that point It wasn't necessarily smart to buy the Dip because the dip just kept on dipping So you know it certainly seems like we Are in a know a similar type of phase Where we are you know very much in QT We're in a in a you know High interest Rate Environment um just like you know just Like we saw back in in 2019 and you know The pullbacks have not been they've not Been very substantial right and and it I Think it keeps wanting it keeps making People want more and then there's a good Chance that maybe by the time you Actually get more um you might get a lot More so and again if you if you remember This rally over here it lasted it lasted

Essentially until the FED finally you Know pivoted um and I don't I I mean I Certainly don't know when the fed's Going to PIV I do think one thing to Sort of keep in mind and I think you Know I might fall into this trap too Sometimes when you think about like a a Fed pivot it's not it's not a fed pivot That causes risk assets to sort of Second guess what's going on right it It's it's the risk assets or the economy Maybe not doing so well that would might That perhaps cause the FED to Pivot Right so I I I would think about it like That um I you know I think a lot of People have made made the case that uh We're still mimicking you know like 2015 2016 price action which again I think is A fair assessment as well and and in That case you can see that Bitcoin Basically you know it set a it set a Range it slowly climbed and it broke Into a new range right so it's Potentially doing something very very Sim similar and so if you do get a Larger pullback below the bull market Support band and if it say goes down to Say the prior breakout Zone at around 30k then that would certainly be Mimicking what we saw back in in 2016 Right if it were to if it were to do Something like that so I think that's Another important way to look at the Market and say look if it is mimicking

The 2015 2016 um move move that we saw back over Here then it's actually quite standard To you know Upon A breakout to then go Retest the breakout point that would Actually be um expected right now I'm of The opinion that every cycle is slightly Different and you know you should not You should not use one cycle alone to Tell you what's going to happen but Maybe take elements from multiple Cycles Right instead of saying it's the 2016 Cycle or instead of saying it's the you Know the 2019 2020 cycle uh perhaps it's Some type of combination or is Completely different I think that's a Valid way to think about the market I Mean the market will constantly throw You curve balls and and and do things it Hasn't necessarily done before and and That's the way I guess it it you know Keeps investors on their toes Um so looking at it on a smaller time Frame if you were to go to say the daily Time frame for Bitcoin You know the the 50-day is something That we've talked about before that that Bitcoin is really battling against it's Currently slightly above it right now The 50-day SMA is just below $43,000 uh it's been a you know it's Been a level That previously once we got below it it It took a lot of fight to get back above

It right we got below it here in May and We didn't get back above it until um Basically about a month and a half later Here we got below it in July and then we Didn't really durably get back above it Until September right this was this was Like Late July we got back above it late September we dropped below the 50-day SMA over here back in mid January and While we have had some daily closes Above it we're still Not durably pushing through it at this Point and so if the 50-day does hold as Resistance and you know you might argue That it's emulating something like that Right and again if you go look at the Short-term bubble risk Of Bitcoin you can see that that's Essentially how it got back down to the 20we moving average right is by just Getting pushed down by the 50-day SMA Over and over and over again until Finally it got back down to the bull Market support band right we actually Went slightly below it on on a you know On The Daily time frame but we held it As support and then we got another pop Back up to the upside so all relevant Ways I think to look at it and again I Mean I see people talking about it as if It's 2016 I see people talking about it As if it's like 2019 2020 my view is That probably no neither of them it'll Probably do something slightly different

Than it did in in both of those prior Cycles and again you know one thing to Think about too is that this cycle if You say look at 2023 2023 actually looks more similar to To Um sorry let me pull this up I pulled The wrong one up so 2023 and I want to Average out election years right so 2023 actually ended the year at a very Similar spot as to where most election Years go right and so I mean yes we Could compare Bitcoin in 2024 to 2020 And 2016 and 2012 but you know maybe you Make the case that you can compare it to Another year maybe post election years Right maybe compare it to 2021 or maybe 2013 or 2017 or perhaps you now compare It to two pre-election years um but Again I I know this stuff is is somewhat Hand wavy and you know I I don't know Exactly where it's going to go in the Short term my general views on the Market with Bitcoin is to DC it at a at A risk level that you are comfortable With um or over a time frame that you're Comfortable with that's my general Recommendation and and to just be Patient and and ignore everything else Um you know that's been my general view For for a long time and we'll we'll Continue to talk about you know the Implications of of various moves and and How high they could go how low they

Could go but at the end of the day I Don't base my own investing strategy on That um there's a couple other things I Wanted to mention and that is you know You do of course have Things like the the FIB retracement Stuff that we we talked about and and it Has at least been enough to cause a Short-term correction um off the 618 and The reason I bring that up is because That's where it it corrected back in in 2019 that doesn't mean that it has to Carry out that same pattern right I mean If you know I I suppose what you what You look at is to see that if if it can Hold this level here right if it can Because it went to the 618 it came back Down to the 0 five right can it hold This level or not if it can then it Would favor pushing back up to the 6.8 If it can't then it would favor pushing Back down to the 382 which is actually Slightly below the bull market support Band and again you could look at things Like you know other aspects to the Market like Bitcoin dominance and and Altcoins and all that other stuff and And see that um you know if you look at Like altcoins they they've basically Been relatively flat against Bitcoin for A while this would imply that there's Still liquidity in the altcoin market That could make its way over to bitcoin Going into the

Having same thing with you know like Total two minus usct Bitcoin right I Mean it yes I I get that it has had a Bounce recently But it still I mean at this point right At least over the last few weeks it's Been bleeding back to bitcoin so one of The cases to make again for Bitcoin Is that there is liquidity in the Altcoin market that Bitcoin really likes To Absorb and we've seen that you know We've seen that happen many many times And it's one of the reasons why we spoke We've spoken so much about about Bitcoin Dominance and I again I know it it gives Me a a relatively bad reputation for for Talking about it in in such a bullish Light for the last couple of years um You know and I I I see other videos that People do where they've just been Calling for alt season and and and and You know Bitcoin dominance to crash for The last two years and no one I mean Everyone seems to be really happy with Those videos because it would certainly Benefit their portfolio more for Altcoins to pump then than for Bitcoin To like if Bitcoin pumps then it sort of Steals the show but what's fascinating Is how you know dominance has moved up For a long period of time and yes people Are going to constantly call the top on It and again they will eventually be

Right and it's possible that the top is In again I mean it's possible we've seen It we've seen dominance top out at the End of preh having years before it could Certainly happen again the reason why I Suggest to be open-minded is because we Are we have not yet seen the FED pivot Um and so it would still favor lower Risk assets over higher risk assets it's One of the reasons why Mega cap tech Stocks continue to go up um over some of The smaller caps because we just simply Do not know when we're going to go back To looser monetary policy and So you know I know it has certainly made Me the bad guy to talk about Bitcoin Dominance and I don't really like being The bad guy I I would you know I would Very much prefer to to dance with Everyone um but you know I mean and Again like just as everyone was giving Up on it it it's now up four weeks in a Row I mean again this week isn't isn't Over yet but you know we're we're right Back up to where we previously were you Know just a few weeks ago and if you Think about it if you look at like a Line chart in the last several years Right in the last several years there's Only been a few weeks where dominance Was higher than it is right now but yet Everyone acts like the current dominance Level is an awful level right I mean you Know being at 52% sort of it people act

Like it's so low but it's like you know We just spent a long time grinding this Entire way up and now that we push Slightly lower it's seen as like the end Of you know the end of it remember and Again I I I go back to this constantly When when in Prior Cycles when Bitcoin Got those rallies that's what brought That's what broke all Bitcoin valuations Down remember right if you look at like All Bitcoin pair That's what made them break down was was Those Bitcoin those really strong Bitcoin moves and that's where they you Know they broke off of these support Levels and again you know while altcoins Did get a bit of a surge against Bitcoin Following the spot ETF have they not just been slowly Giving it right back I mean every single Week they're going down one to two% Against Bitcoin So I I think that's the case you make is Well you know if Bitcoin does fall into The 20we SMA or even if it doesn't and If it does push higher Then we could see all Bitcoin pairs Break off of this support level now for Those people that would like me to talk More about the altcoin market and I I Will try to do so but I I you know I did Want to express again the reasons why I Focus mostly on bitcoin is because my

General expectation has been that Al Altcoins collectively would bleed Against Bitcoin right and I I feel like They have but as always there are a few That Outperform and I think one of the Troubling things about My Views are that Even if I express that some altcoins Will outperform because everyone knows My general view about altcoins then when Any specific altcoin does outperform it Sort of seem like oh well you know Ben Was wrong about that guys I mean there Every cycle every single cycle there are Some that outperform I mean last cycle I You know chain link was one that Outperformed um and there were many Others that outperformed and and chain Link has has has shown some relative Strength recently too against against Bitcoin But collectively right collectively the Altcoin market is still struggling Against Bitcoin but that doesn't mean That every altcoin is struggling and so As I've said before right if you want a Certain altcoin in your portfolio the Strategy that I would recommend would be A DCA strategy over trying to time Anything because if you do assume if you Go with My Views that all Bitcoin pairs Are bleeding there's always a chance That the altcoin that you want to pick Up doesn't bleed there's also a chance

That the bleed is over for the altcoin Market against Bitcoin so again if you If there's if there's an asset that you Want and you think that it's fairly Valued and you you think the Fundamentals are sound Then the best strategy I I think would Be a a DCA strategy my only Point has Basically been that if you were dcing Bitcoin over altcoins collectively you Would have come out ahead right and this Shows this I mean like if you if you Were dcing altcoins over Bitcoin here Then they kept losing value against Bitcoin right they just keep losing Value now over the last few months Theyve they've relatively flatlined here Now the question is is is it going to Break down again or is this where it Forms some type of of macro bottom and You know you could look at it in in two Different ways I mean you can kind of See both patterns where you put in a low Right you put in a low and then you put In a lower low and then you get a pump Back up and then it still Fades down Here you put in a low you put in a lower Low and then you you came all the way up Here and put in a higher high but in Both Cases it still eventually faded down and Took that out so I just I it's hard to Say right like it's hard to say if this Is going to happen

Again I think there is a case to be made That it could um note that on both of These Breakdowns it was on a Bitcoin rally Where all Bitcoin pairs really took a a Huge hit um and so do be aware of that There's also cases in the past where Bitcoin pairs take huge hit huge hits During you know not during Bitcoin Rallies but when bitcoin's flat below The 20we SMA those are those are also Examples of of where they take hits and You can see that happened over here in In um May of of 2022 right you know all Bitcoin pairs took a pretty big hit as Bitcoin was was sort of just trending Below its you know its bull market Support band so Um that is those are sort of my thoughts On the market right now and and as it Relates to bitcoin you know Bitcoin is Is is at you know just over $43,000 and I would say let's see I mean As as long as the 8we holds the and you Know it potentially makes the case for Not having to visit the 20we ese in the Short term um which in the short term I Imagine people would like the longer we Go without testing it the less likely we Are to hold it right so it would almost Be better to go back down soon and test It and just check in with it because Again the longer that you go right if You end up going five or six months as

History showed as previously then There's a higher likelihood that you end Up breaking it okay so I still think We're in the window right now where it It could theoretically hold we we've Seen you know we've seen prior Februaries of having years where we held It um but we are starting to flirt with Those longer time frames of you know Getting Beyond you know four months or So where it it could become problematic If it doesn't happen um in the next few In the next few weeks not not Problematic in the sense that it can't Move up I mean again look at you know 2021 is a 2020 and 2021 is a great Example of um of just how long it can go Right and again the rally really started In October and lasted until until April Right this rally here started in October And you can see that this first top over Here occurred in January and this first Top right here has occurred in January And you can see that it held the 8we SMA Right here we got slightly below it so If we do if we do push up then what I Would look for is I would look for you Know Bitcoin dominance to hopefully go Up with it um and and then see you know See how the altcoin market performs with Respect to that if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on intothe

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