Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Provide an update to the bull market Support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the Crypt Premium at intothe cryptoverse decom it Has been a little bit since we provided An update so I do just want to go Through a few different things the bull Market support band now ranges from 33k To around 35k K so a range of Approximately $2,000 and still well below the current Price action of Bitcoin in fact in order To get back to the 21 we EMA it would Require at this time about a 177% drop And the 20we estimate would require About a 22% drop just to get back to Those levels so one of the things we've Spoken about this year though is the Extension from the 20we moving average Right right so like if you look at the Short-term bubble risk which again is Just the extension from the 20we SMA you Can see that we've repeated a lot of the The price action in the early part of The Year where we saw a brief extension From the 20we SMA for a little bit Before ultimately seeing extend before Ultimately seeing it extend even higher Right so there was sort of a buildup

Period over here where Bitcoin got above The 20we SMA and then in March it Accelerated that move got a lot higher And the extension from the 20we SMA was Even was basically the highest it's been For for most of the year right except For what we've seen just in the last Month or so and now we're seeing Something similar take place again where There's a little build up a little bit Of a Buildup and you get above that 20we Moving average you kind of trend Sideways for a while just like we did Over here and then you see Bitcoin Accelerate up again just like it did Back over here and go to the extension From the 20we moving average which is More less the same spot that I went to In March of 2020 now again the Interesting thing and as we pointed out Even though the extension from the 20we SMA back in March was the furthest in Midm March we also know that Bitcoin did Go higher a few weeks later right it Just wasn't as extended from the 20we SMA a few weeks later because of course The 20we SMA had time to catch up Another way to view this is by looking At the natural log of the price over the 20we moving average and kind of seeing Like it's it's kind of it's just moved Up to the same level it was at back in In March 2023 we've also looked at this

In terms of sort of diminished extension From the 20we moving average the idea That the extension from the 20we SMA From one cycle to another diminishes Right you can see once upon a time it it Was pretty far Extended and as time has gone on the Extension from that moving average the 20we moving average tends to diminish And it's actually one of the reasons why You know again back in in 2021 why I was Actually quite bearish at the first Peak It wasn't because I thought the the Market cycle high was in it was just Because I said look in terms of the Extension from the 20we moving average We're fairly extended at this point Especially in given the context of History and if we are to assume Diminished extension from the 20we Moving average then it might be a safe Assumption to assume that we would get a Summer lull in 2021 which is what we got And while we did go to a higher price Later on in 2021 the extension from the 20we ese was a lot less now what you'll Notice is that in 2019 we got close to This trend line but we actually did not Make it there and so the question of Course now is is will it make it there Or will it sort of fade before it Reaches it like it did in 2019 sort of Just put that trend line back on the Screen one of the interesting things is

If you go to where the extension was in 2019 and draw a horizontal line across You can see that it would actually go Above um that downtrend line for us to Reach that extension above the 20we ese That we reached in 2019 sort of showing Just how explosive that move was in 2019 Right and just how far above the 20we SMA that the price of Bitcoin got in Fact from this from this level here you Can see the Bitcoin price was 120% above This 20we moving average whereas a few Weeks ago Bitcoin got about 48% above His 20we moving average so you can see That from one cycle to another the Extension above of the bull market Support band or at least a component of The 20we moving average tends to Diminish okay and that sort of is in Line with the idea of us seeing Diminished volatility as a function of Time I will remind you that we saw a Similar rally going into rate Cuts in The last cycle as well and you know I I'm not here to say that it has to play Out in any specific way it's just sort Of an acknowledgment that this rally at Least this initial rally before we had a Cooldown phase this initial Rally started to fade once rate Cuts Arrived you can see that Bitcoin found a Local high before rate Cuts actually Came in and so the question is is well Will it play out in a similar manner

This cycle or not Market expectations Right now are that rate Cuts come in March so if it were to play out in in a Similar manner as it did in 2019 it Would imply a a local top sometime Before March I mean it could be in January it could be in February who Knows right but it would imply that if It were to play out in the same way that It did last cycle where a a sort of an Intermediate top comes in um and then And then it fades it into rate cuts and Then sort of the next low is found by The last rate cut that's what happened Last cycle we can of course see if That's what happens this cycle as well But I do think that uh you know Bitcoin Has been trending higher for a while now And of course there's the the spot ETF That everyone's talking about and if it If it does rally into that uh which Again there's no guarantees that it does But I mean Bitcoin has been Consolidating right here and slowly Trending higher um but if it does if it Does rally into that in early January Then it it certainly could be time for a Cool off period um for a while until Until we go back to you know to Q and to Looser monetary policy but that'll be if Just you know if it plays out in a Similar manner as it did last cycle or Not which is no guarantee and I will Sort of remind people just of that 100

We moving average um historically Sometime around this point in the cycle Uh and and and actually it's occurred Even later on in the cycle as well um we We sort of retested that 100 we moving Average and it's not you know it's just Something that we sort of acknowledge That that does seem to be something that Comes in at a phase in the cycle and in 2016 we you know we didn't we did not Have a hard Landing it was um I guess You could argue that it was a soft Landing we didn't even have a recession Back then but we did have a recession Scare where a lot of people thought There was going to be a recession um we Didn't really have you know an inverted Yil curve or anything like that but There were other parts of the world Where their economies were slowing down And I think there was some arguments That it could happen in the United States and it didn't and and Bitcoin Basically retested that 100 week s Ma And continue to move higher whereas last Cycle we retested it got a bounce but Then ultimately fell through so I do Think that at some point probably within The first few months of 2024 we'll see Some type of back test of that 100 we Moving average and then the question of Whether it holds or not will probably be Dependent on whether the FED achieves a Soft Landing or if it's a hard Landing

Like the last cycle so that is I think Something to think about over the next Few months uh just for reference Extension from the 100 we moving average Last cycle reached approximately 94% Before fading back down to it you can See that so far Bitcoin has gone above About 57% or so above the 100 we moving Average and in line with the idea of Diminishing extension from these moving Averages my expectation is that it it Might not reach the same level that it Reached last like before that that large Draw down I mean just to give you an Idea of how high it would have to go to In in a in a very short period of time For it to reach say 94% above the 100 we Moving average it would have to go all The way up um you know to over 50k and I'm not saying that can't happen it it It certainly could happen the point is Is um that's how high it went last cycle We have seen diminish volatility as a Function of time but also do remember That the 100 we SMA is starting to curl Up so you know it depends on where the Price goes I mean if the price were to Just Trend sideways for a few months Then the 100 we ese would then slowly Start to come back up and and sort of Fall into to to higher prices so that's An important caveat to it is that the Extension the reference point from the

Extension is is dynamic right it's Changing and so we must we we should Consider that when when sort of thinking About how high above the 100 we estimate That it can go um but that is is is and By the way I mean if it if it were to Extend that far above the the one week I Imagine it would it would correspond Sort of back testing that trend line um That I know I know a lot of people have Have sort of pointed out over the last Um over the last few months but anyways We'll see you know we'll see what Happens here as we get into the final Trading you know the final days of the Year early 2024 should be an interesting Time um with this Narrative of course on The spat ETF that everyone's been Talking about all year I think we'll Finally have some type of resolution to That uh which will be nice to see and And and see how price that ction unfolds Um between that event whether it's good Or bad um and and the having which is is Coming up in April but my expectation is That in line with prior Cycles I would Expect some type of of move back to the 100 we moving average but again it it Could still be a couple months away Before something like that something Like that were to happen especially Given uh these narrative events and you Know we've really seen this cycle a lot Of price action has been driven by these

Narratives if you think back to the Merge for ethereum ether Bitcoin was Rallying up until the merge and then Right at right at the merge ether Bitcoin topped and then it faded uh We've seen prior institutional products Launched for Bitcoin and and just after It we saw the market fade so I and again We have the Bitcoin having coming up in In April so this does seem to be just Sort of chasing one narrative um and you Know just Chas from moving from one Narrative to another narrative uh pretty Frequently but I in my experience Narratives can always be used to exp Explain price action um but often times Price sort of dictates The Narrative and Not the other way around right like if Price were to go up we could find a Narrative to support it if price were to Go down we could you know we could find A narrative to support that as well um So that is uh sort of my at least Initial view on the market um I I do Know I mean know one other thing I want To do at least point out is we are going To have that cross of the 50 we and the 200 week SME relatively soon um you can You can see that they crossed here to The downside back in February and now They should be Crossing to the upside Within the next couple of weeks which is Interesting because it seems like this Is going to happen basically right

Around the time of that uh sort of event In the next few weeks regarding a a spot ETF sort of that that cross to the Upside as opposed to a a cross to the Downs side but anyways we'll wrap it up There thank you guys for tuning in make Sure you subscribe get give the video a Thumbs up check out the s on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse Docomo we put out several premium videos Each week we have a website with Thousands of charts not only on Cryptocurrency but also equities and and And macro and and other things as well Commodities so make sure you guys check That out I will see you guys next time Bye


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