Arthur Hayes & Raoul Pal: Risks, Degen Plays, EOY Predictions!!

So yeah I think Doge gets an ETF before The end of the cycle aptose flips Solana In the layer Run game that's I'll put That out there I didn't want to say it I Didn't want to say it Charles is going To come whoop your Ass let me tell you getting the great Minds that are Arthur Hayes and Ral pal Together at the same time it wasn't easy But it was totally worth it in our Conversation they share the most Degenerate plays in their portfolios and What narratives and projects are going To take off in this market cycle and Much more besides to say a lot went down This conversation would be an Understatement wow well what an All-Star Panel thank you so much for joining Today let's jump straight in because 2024 and the crypto markets has been on An absolute tear we have seen in the Month of May alone $420 billion US added To the crypto market cap we have seen ETF frenes we have seen mcoin Mania And the Bitcoin hving just the name a Few we're not even halfway through the Year yet I'm so curious when it comes to Your strategy so far this year and also Your All-Star play of the year so far Arthur let's start with you what have we Got strategy be long Um don't sell don't get shook don't use Too much leverage uh I mean it's pretty Simple like everyone knows what they

Should be doing obviously we all never Do it because there you know fund the YOLO some but at the end of the Day it's very very simple if you believe That central banks and governments are In debt we'll continue to be in debt We'll continue to print money we'll Continue to hand out you know welfare to Buy votes or support from the population At large then crypto is the answer um Obviously Bitcoin is the OG thing and That's I I know a lot of Bitcoin and Then as you move up the risk curve and Hopefully up the return potential return Curve as well then you get into the the Sh coin space obviously the standout Thing for melom my family office this Year has been Athena in terms of how Amazing guy and his team has have Executed on this vision of creating a Synthetic dollar and displacing tether At usdc I think that Athena now sits at About three billion is uh circulation Which puts it the number four fourth Largest if you want to call it US dollar Stable coin or out there and I think That that is probably our best um thing That we've done as a front uh this cycle And I think that we're only getting Started in terms of the impact that Athena is going to have on the ecosystem And then probably number two would Probably be something called like ethery And the whole liquid reaking token um

Ecosystem obviously Ian layer is going Live later this year uh we have a bunch Of other plays in that sort of vertical As well so I would say those are the two Things that are standout highlights for Our portfolio the so the so far this Cycle okay awesome we'll get to a them a Little bit later well I'm curious to Hear from you best play of 2024 and how Have you played this year to do Absolutely nothing has been the best Play of all just you know I I'm like 90% Salana it's been the right bet to have Um over the over the cycle so far the Only play I've done this year in any Meaningful size was I took top slice Salana as it was coming from 150 over to 200 Top sliced it and started buying the High end of nfts so I I bought pretty Much every single beeple I could Possibly buy and then I bought every Single x copy I could afford U building A longterm long-term portfolio these Things were quite beaten down and my View is this space goes from Two and a Half three trillion now by the end of The cycle it's 10 to 15 trillion by the End of let's say 2032 just extrapolating The normal log trend of this it's $1 Trillion by 2032 that from here is 97 trillion Dollars of wealth that is going to come This is the largest fastest accumulation Of wealth in all recorded history let's

Assume I'm a total which is a good Thing to do and I'm Wrong by 50% it's Still a $50 trillion wealth accumulation That is the entire history of wealth Accumulation of the S&P 500 and its Market cap so the amount of wealth That's going to get generated is going To get recycled Into the space people will buy high-end Property in nice places but a lot of People in this space won't go outside of This space and it gets recycled whether It's VC whether it's the opportunities Of building the applications layer but Really people seek trophy assets and so I've just been buying as much trophy Assets as I can for a kind of long 10-year time Horizon because I think This is the last chance you'll ever get To buy this stuff at the kind of prices It Is you always end with a really Motivational Think you've not bought crypto yet this Is the last time guys don't sleep on it Y yeah don't this up how many times Can we say this don't this up yats See C it guys um so well you've also Said that we are in a banana zone right Now how we're coming into the banana Zone we're coming into the banana Zone you do you wear a banana hammock in The banana Zone R is that when we know We're in the banana for you Arthur

Anything mate Anything you'll see Englishman gets Arrested in Singapore for wearing a Banana hammock you'll see it Yeah so how do we play this what how do You position the upcoming banana Zone And what happens next for those that Have ban the banana zone is something The both Arthur and I talk a lot about It's that point in the cycle where Liquidity comes in where central banks Need to refy all of the debt um it's When politicians bribe the people with Plenty of candy it's that moment that That crypto tends to go vertical and It's very cyclical it's driven by this Macroeconomic forces of this debt refi Cycle it affects all the asset prices Over the time but crypto is the one that Goes truly Banas so again the simplest Way is don't this up so just have a Core portfolio the big Stuff but if you get the other stuff Right you can make a lot of money in the Other stuff the 10 20% of your portfolio There's a bit more dgen that's when You're going to see some really Interesting stuff now if you go back to The classic banana Zone from the last Cycle that's when salana Avalanche Luna And Matic came and those that they Performance in one year out of those Four tokens was Insane we're going to see that repeat

Who's it going to be what's it going to Be I don't know yet but that's a game to Be had in the banana Zone and it's part Of the fun that you can actually dejen In and feel like you've really nailed Something because really most of the Game is just doing nothing um and just Letting it all play out I was trapped Inside a cage a cage made out of The Daily Grind I was so unfulfilled I felt Like a blank sheet of A4 paper something Was missing from my life but I didn't Know what but then I found what I'd been Missing the coin Bureau deals page was The answer to my prayers it had Everything I needed to make me complain Exchange sign up bonuses of up to $60,000 The biggest discount on the best Hardware wallets trading fee discounts Of up to 60% on the best crypto Exchanges exclusive altcoin Alpha thank You coin Bureau for bringing me back to Life now let's talk DJ Zone because Arthur since you last came on the show You mentioned dog with hat and you said I think something along the lines I'm Like you know so greatest money Of all time I did not buy any dog with Hat and it had I own with I own wh go And 50 Waiting and here we are mcoin frenzy has Gone absolutely bonanzas it has Outperformed every other narrative by a

Mile have we still got room to run Arthur when it comes to market cap is This just going to keep growing and is There any like this kind of narrative is What I'm watching right now or is it Just throwing money at a dart board and Seeing what works You know the reason why I know that Meme Coins are here to stay and are going to Get even crazier as there's more money Printed is so I'm in Singapore a lot and It's a small place and a very Homogeneous uh Society between the the Major Ethnicities and every time I walk down Orchard Road to the shopping district to Do some errands I walk by like Chanel Store LV Gucci whatever all the you know The mainstream F big Brands there is Always a line of local singaporeans Setting a line to buy whatever you know Piece of alphabet that they want to put On their body for like thousands of Sing Dollars and they're literally standing In line you know 15 20 deep waiting to Get in this store to blow probably their Whole paycheck for a few months and they Continue to do this over and over and Over and over again so if people are Willing to spin in line to you know buy Cowhide with L andv tattooed on it then They certainly going to sit on their Computer and the internet and trade Whatever the meme coin is that's hot

This secondy because you don't have to Understand anything about crypto just Like you don't have to understand Anything about fashion everybody else Likes it I like it too very very human So I think main coins are here to stay For the you know person who's just being Initiated into crypto it's like Literally the easiest thing to Understand oh yeah that's a cool image That's a really funny joke that I that I Understand and everyone else is in on The joke and I can make money as the Joke gains in reality okay cool I'll buy This mcoin I don't need to understand Blockchain and Ai and crypto and Cryptography and all the stuff that is You know predicated on why these things Can exist on a blockchain and trade 247 On on a decentralized exchange I don't Have to understand any of that I just Have to understand is this a cool Cultural Trend or not and I'm already Doing that in my Normy life in the IRL Space when I go bu one of these Expensive Brands and stand in line for Hours to you know put some logos on my Chest so I I think just you know Observing the behavior of humans just You know why am rno is what you the Wealthiest man in the world if you Looked down the list of the wealthiest People like a good percentage of them Own luxury Brands mem coins are the

Luxury brand of of crypto this and just It's easier to even get in because you Don't have to wait and wait in Line just you know I mean assuming that The salon of blockchain works but you Know all that being said then yeah you Can ape into these things on your you Know preferred decentralized exchange Hopefully you do it on drift one of my Portfolio companies I um I had um coffee yesterday with meow From Jupiter and we were talking about Exactly this is that what's so Interesting about mean coins is that Utility is either zero or small right Bon has some utility you know shiberino Has some Utility but the actual cultural value is The attention these things get the Attention is Upstream of Everything and so it's so easy to Understand you don't need to Value it is Does this capture attention is that uh Attention persistent and do I get some Sort of Feelgood factor or status by Owning it and it's the same as a lvmh You know a liton handbag and it's the Same with Fi Fine Wines it's the same With the meme on the internet that you Share it's all the same thing it's just Concentrated Attention and which narrative people can Understand better if you ask a regular Retail investor their difference between

Understanding and adopting Ian layer White paper and then also dog with hat It's a wonder which one they're going to Pick up and which one they're going to Be able to give an elevator pitch to to The next potential investor it's Certainly an interesting time now I'm Curious to hear from you both when it Comes to the degeneracy that is the Crypto Market in 2024 what have been if You have any any of your degenerate play Any it's not your first rodeo in crypto You have been in a few Market Cycles are You having any gener plays at the moment Or things that you're watching in your Portfolio I'm pretty I'm I'm ly I just Don't have the time I just don't have The time so if you think of a um a lot Of the dgen stuff is basically attention I don't have enough attention to give Out because I'm too busy so I've kept it Pretty straightforward so I've got whiff Bonk I still in Doge because I still Think elon's going to do something with Doge um and that's about it I observe The space you know everyone reads anom Feed and trying to figure out what the going on stuff like that but I I Don't have enough attention to give out To the attention that it needs so you Can actually need to know what you're Doing a little bit so yeah Arthur is Obviously you know he's a man of leisure He can do whatever he wants got time

Yeah I mean to R's point my leisure Consists of running around a court and Hitting a felt ball or you know putting On a piece of board and skiing down a Mountain side so I I also don't have the Attention to spend on which particular Doggy coin is the hottest one on some Withi uh Dogecoin as well I think I Think Dogecoin is gonna get get an ETF By the end of the cycle just because Yeah I think so as well because and yeah I agree yeah it's the oldest mecoin it's On Robin Hood in the US like if you're Thinking about you know trefi getting Into crypto and they're going to put an ETF on anything they can you know it's a High market cap thing it's been around For a while it's like the original memec Coin joke I mean r Palmer Rage Quit from crypto even though we created This like amazing hilarious thing so Yeah I think Doge gets an ETF before the End of the cycle so long we were Speaking to the team at bitwise which is One of the ETF issuers in the United States and they were saying to get new Investors to understand ethereum and the Elevator pitch behind it is going to be Slightly problematic it's still taking Them time to wrap their head around Bitcoin so if we do hypothetically see a Dogecoin ETF do you think the narrative Could lead it to actually flip for the Higher demand for a Dogecoin ETF than

The like on demand for ethereum ETF I Hit up Yan Vanek it was just last week I Said Yan you've got to do this you've Got to file for the Dogecoin ETF he's like I just want to make sure I Don't go to prison first I said look You'll be fine it's been it's been Around it's proven itself it's Outperformed Bitcoin every cycle I mean It's astonishingly it's been Astonishingly good so I'm working in the Background to try and make this happen Um but I haven't got through Yan yet but I'll get somebody we'll get Hunter Horley Yan one of these guys will force Across the line it's unlikely to be Black Rock but we'll give that a go To please keep us posted we'll find a Little Community we'll push forward and Forth so Arthur sorry you mentions Though the Dogecoin ETF could be a thing You mentioned you're too busy for most Of the mem coins but is there any other Sub narratives that you think that could Be a fun One in terms of like meme narratives or More in general in the space Oh meme Coin narratives I think a lot of meme Coins are too specific and like some of The political ones yeah they're funny For a minute but they don't have any Lasting um lasting cultural value like What happens if Biden dies right Statistically speaking he has a I don't

Know 78% chance of dying in the next 12 Months same with Trump right just Looking actal tables calculated this With acarial Tables this is why he's got too much Time on his hands so again okay yeah the Bowden EF is funny or Elizabeth Warren Whatever some of these us specific Things but how do you why is dog with Hat great because I can put a little hat On and whether you're a Korean or Chinese or American or you're from Argentino wherever you're from you get It it's funny I'm start talking about American politics number one I've Offended half the people in America and And number two anyone who's not American Which is 95% of the rest of the World is like okay cool I get it but That's not really re resonating with me So I like I think a lot of the memes That I see are too specific on some Piece of culture that isn't going to be Globally relevant on an online community That's basically crossb so if there's Anyone who's think I guess you're going To start a mcoin and it's going to be You know a billion dollar market cap Within a weekend probably not if you're Trying to base it on something very Specific to you or how you grew up or Something like that it has to be a Global thing that's non offensive that Is inclusive but funny at the same time

And it's actually a good place to test Out narratives is here in Singapore Because that's that kind of as you said It's a culturally diverse Asian audience Of you know Asians are big gamblers they Love mean coins they were big buyers of Doge and um um and most of the other Kind of dog coins and stuff like that And you just have to see is that Resonate here and they don't care about and you know all of this kind of Stuff they just they want something that They can talk about that crosses Cultural boundaries amazing let's bring It back now into a more sensible adult Conversation we've got the mecoin Mania Out the way I had to get it in you got The wrong people for That everyone watching wants to know Your place they're following you guys Let's take a look at the US elections Because you guys are macro gurus as well This how are you expect ing the US Elections to impact the market and what Should we be doing in the buildup to Keep an eye out protect ourselves and Also you know make the most of if we do See a market p on the Way I mean my view is both the same we Have no real yeah go on you go first I They're the same candidate they're all Idiots both of them and and both of Their parties that are behind them They're the front people and so they're

Going to stand behind them all the way Because of all the you know goodies that Flow with whoever's in charge right Whether it's Democrats or Republicans And if you look at any sort of um Estimation by you know bipartisan Outlets on the state of the deficit it's Not like it's you know one one person's Gonna cut spending and run a balanced Budget or Surplus and the other is not They're both saying elect me and I'll Give you free paid for by the other People that lost that's the message and So which one of those messages resonates Better I don't know I don't give a What message resonates I just know that They're both printing money and Therefore anything that was working Today whether it's big cap Tech or Crypto is going to work after the Election now maybe there's G to be some Some volatility if you have some sort of Like you know Civil War type scenarios Or you know a dust up between you know Either side depending on what happens With sort of the Trump sentencing if He's in jail he's not in jail whatever Right but at the end of the Day I think that's not really going to Be meaning uh meaningful at the end of The day and one of them will be elected And even if they even if it's a Republican president Democrat House and Senate or vice versa think about the

Things that both parties vote on Together every single time weapons right Ukraine um Iran Israel every time There's ever an ask for we need more Money to give to the American defense Companies to bomb more people everybody Lines up and says yes please more and so If you look look at it the breakdown of The biggest expenditures of the US Government apart from uh healthc care Interest expense it's veterans payments And defense so it's War the American Economy is geared to kill people and Both political parties are happy to kill People as long as their stocks go up and So again it's the same thing same party You know depend which clown do you like Better so I don't really care it's fun To Watch yeah and part of that is I mean if There's any volatility maybe one of Those two drops out there's violence is Obviously likely to happen at some point In this just because of how Diver divided the society is but the When you when you narrow everything down The outcome for everything is printing Money so the worst anything happens in The US the more likely they are to print Money so election years tend to be very Very positive and the year after for Risk assets just because everybody's um Buying votes and then kind of proving Themselves afterwards and mopping up the

Pieces and paying that interest on the Debt so there's that military side You've then got all the retirees with The Baby Boomers with all the votes well They want their healthare and then the Third part of the equation is somebody Needs to pay the interest on the debt And the only way of this is the Magic Money Printer I also saw that the the Heritage Foundation backing is saying they're Looking to erode the feds Independence If they do come into power is That they already not independent now That's it's a whole that's a whole oh my God the FED is independent J Paul is Impotent he can't even if he believes He's like the most powerful person in The world Janet Yellen can do whatever The she wants and yeah Paul hasn't Raise or cut rates but Yellen can drain The treasury general account by 800 Billion The Stroke of a pen you know she Can cut a bank off of Swift if she wakes Up on the wrong side of the bed yeah She's the most powerful person in the World and her number one job is to get Joe Biden reelect it and so whatever you Know poell and all the governors can Write all these fancy papers Over you know Marino ekas building in New York but the treasury Department Runs a show and they always have run the Show and if you read some of the paper

Papers that there's a recent paper by The Atlanta fed on um Central Bank Effect swaps and such the Fe the paper Was arguing that the FED has always Backed up International dollar borrowers Ever since it was created in 1913 and it Goes stepwise through every single Incident where the FED essentially Printed money and handed it out to a Foreign institution or foreign branch of A bank and the and the conclusion of the Article was we've been doing this for years so let's do it some more If we need to there is no independent Fed that was written I think last month By the Atlanta fed great paper highly Recommend reading if you have time you Follow Arthur's argument you can see There's a shortage of Dollars around the World right we we lost US Banks we lost A giant Swiss bank we're losing dollar Yen right that's a shortage of dollars And we've got Yellen going to China Twice right she's there because she's Her other job outside of getting joe Elected is to sell bonds she's the Mike Milkin selling junk bonds going to China Doing the road show China's like yeah We'd love to buy your bonds but we don't Have any dollars so you give us dollars And we'll buy bonds so so they have to Figure out how that can be done now Nobody really wants to give China direct Swap lines they probably do it through

Japanese bomb intervention you know by Um currency intervention either way the G20's coming up or g7's coming up There'll be some magical allowance for Everybody to have enough dollars for the System to move forward and everything to Happen so there has been no Independence Since 2008 I think everybody I don't think There's much Independence between Central banks either I think the boj Kind of taught everybody the trick Everybody's followed suit they've all Got the same problems which is the debt And the Aging populations and Everybody Plays the same card and there's you know The boj and the moof that they stopped Being independent in the 90s um even Though on paper they are and so it is All driven by the treasury and require To refinance this debt since 2008 what Do you think is the biggest threat to The financial systems right now because With the ability to understand the Macroeconomics that is going on in the World you can see the world differently To most so is there any catalysts or Risk factors that you can see unraveling Before our eyes right now that we need To know about okay there is one for me And it's not the obvious One um I think the the biggest risk re Space take for let's say threeyear risk MH is a ridiculous

Bubble I think there is a growing big Huge possible Narrative of having a 1999 Style bubble I think if there's a risk Of that then you get an overhang and you Know you could skip a crypto cycle you Could skip a tech cycle like we did back In um 2003 to 200 S or something like That so it's that that's the biggest Risk I think all left tail risks have Been been removed all of them I actually Personally believe that uh China and the US are Agreeing or have agreed to negotiate Taiwan in exchange for Taiwan semi There's no other outcome that can happen Without them going to war and actually They can't afford that war nobody can um I've been observant of Gavin Yum and that weird trip to China now Gavin new going to China normally he'd Be met with somebody lower down he meets With Chi there is the only one reason He's coming with the gift the gift is Let's talk Taiwan then Gavin brings Chi Back to the United States when they're Saber rattling at each other Chi Suddenly turns up in San Francisco of All places not even DC and Nome is is Geopolitically squeaky clean he's not Involved in anything so he's gone there Like I've got no beef with you guys I'm Just a tech guy here over in California Uh let's talk Taiwan semi let's talk Taiwan and I the US is building three

Taiwan semi plants Germany's building One Japan's building one um they're Probably all built within the next four To five Years then everybody's got the Technology that can be shared and I and I believe that if they say to China Listen let's organize something here you Can have Taiwan and Taiwan semi we'll Split Taiwan semi we'll go our own way Split AI amongst two when you follow That through it's been interesting then She did a little tour of Europe and met All the well met macron and others there They need to warm up this whole equation What does Europe want the most it's Really interesting when you follow this What does Europe want the single most is Russia out of its doorstep what happens She goes straight back from France first Meeting Putin flies straight over to see Him comes back and says yeah we were Wrong it wasn't the ukrainians who Bombed the concert hall it was Isis now Everyone can blame Isis it's like the Man you you're politically allowed to Say Isis to anything so that was Interesting and then he said started Leaking that we're prepared to negotiate Not expanding territory in Ukraine and We'll call it a day that's the single Most important thing to the Europeans so I have a Feeling we have a probability that is

Increasing that we've reduce the biggest Left Hill risk in the world and nobody Yet yet knows this and if that's the Case that's going to ignite a Super Bubble so there you go there's part of My grand Thesis now let's talk about the possible Risks and threats to the crypto system We've talked about the financial system And Arthur I'm curious to get your take Because you mentioned Athena earlier on In the conversation when we look Internally at some of the risks or Threats that could jeopardize the Overall health of the crypto Market of Course us regulations does come to mind As being first and foremost but is there Anything within the crypto currency Ecosystem that you think could actually Be a threat or a potential Black Swan Event that could really shake things up So and if if you think about the biggest Risk of the last cycle was a centralized Counterparty getting into credit issues Right and so usually the issues in Crypto are the we love decentralization But then we want to make money so we go Do centralized stuff and we bid up the Centralized stuff and totally blow up Invariably blow up because their Business models are incompatible with The centralized bear Act assets right And this has happened over and over and Over again so how do I think this could

Play out in this particular cyle what Are the centralized entities that we Trust and are basically driving this Bull Market ETF fund managers what do They all do custody their assets at Probably just coinbase maybe a few Banks If one of these rules in the US passes So what are we going to do we're going To accumulate you know hundreds of Billions maybe even trillions of dollars Worth of crypto and probably you know Less than 20 firms who we're all going To custody with probably less than five Institutions Now I don't know if any of you have Worked at a bank but the people who make The least money have the most important Jobs at the bank that's the people who Are in the back office dealing with FX Reconciliation or making sure your stock Clears or all the different things and So if you think about at a custodian of Crypto in a Trad Five bank because now They want to get into doing custody Because they see coinbase making all This money from Black Rock and all these And all these guys and the regulations Force you to custody with a third party So what they force you to custody with You know bony b b y melon or one of the The standard the standard people so now You have all this crypto in these firms Where the person who is probably the Easiest to get hacked probably makes

Like 50 $60,000 a year who's completely Overworked has no respect at work and They don't give a about internet Security it's not their money if I'm gonna hack crypto I'm going after One of these us custodians one of these Banks who Internet Security is just like An afterthought they have no Clue what they're doing because never Have they had a custody an asset or if They lose it they don't get to call up The treasury of the fed and get another Bailout you can't get bail out of crypto Because there's nowhere so no one to Call to create the Bitcoin out of thin Air or The Ether out of thin air Whatever it is that you own on your Balance sheet so if I had to think about A risk and this is sort of you know a Two to threee risk you know how given How I'm seeing things you know change in Terms of who was allowed to do what and How what's driving the market I would Say that a major crypto iian gets hacked And they lose you know 50 hundred Billion dollars with a crypto that's how See the cycle ending and it'd be Unlikely to be coin Bas they kind of Know the game yeah but it's all the new People who as you said have no clue of The complexity of of Bearer assets Because they got rid of them all the Other one for me that I observe and you Know I it's a great business but 90% of

The entire option Market is a Derit that's the entire option Market of Crypto billions and billions of dollars There's a risk there there's a risk There because the amount of people who Use that one Counterparty um as the centralized place For options all the OTC options get laid Off there so that's that's another risk Factor we need more we need more Option um houses you know some exchanges Platforms everything just to stop Concentrating it because there's a lot Of use of derivatives now in that part Of the world and we don't know who's Going to end up holding the baby when it Blows up and the D on on the options Front something you know that I kind of Want experience a little shot in Frida Is uh so viewers are familiar with zero Day options which are the most popular Traded instrument in the US funny enough The um CBOE resisted launching zero day options For many years because they could not um Get to a point where they could real Time margin people who write options now If you understand when you write an Option especially a call option you have Infinite loss potential on the upside So what did they do under immense Pressure of the brokers who wanted to Launch these products because they're Immensely profitable from a retail

Perspective they didn't do it and so if You are an option writer if you're you Know a citadel ver to one of these big Market making firms you post zero Collateral intraday uh when you write Zero day options zero they have no Concept of intraday risk at the subar at Cpoe so imagine if you put a Bitcoin or An ethereum ETF Um zero day options on it and Bitcoin Spikes you know 50% a day because Whatever I don't know something happens Uh and all these guys and obviously the Retail is going to be long long Volatility the dealers are selling it to Them at very expensive prices but on This particular day Market gaps up and You get scorched on your gamma and your Vega and all of a sudden CAD is down $30 Billion right and they don't have it and Not only that everybody else is down as Well and if you've dug into the um I Actually never released this essay but I Did a lot of research on all the major Exchanges in the US and their uh their Clearing Houses they are woefully underc Capitalized it wouldn't take much to to Essentially bankrupt the entire US Financial system if they if they Onboarded an asset that could move that They couldn't stop which Bitcoin or some Of these other assets so that's another Interesting risk um in terms of a market Event that could happen as we've

Integrated triy was doesn't understand Risk because they've never had to Actually experience it because of Central banks and be assets that are Traded around the world that understand Risk because they're essentially this Long volatility instruments so something Interesting these AR and these aren't Predictions just so everybody's clear This is these are identifiable risks That people may not see this is not Because I know what the internet's like This is not arth and R saying yeah They're going to go under they're going To go under it's all it's like no no These are it's a risk that we can see That could be systemic because somebody At the end of the cycle will blow up we Just don't know who it is and it's Always for the same thing you try and Add leverage to a 70% volatility asset You will always blow up 100% guaranteed You just don't know who it's going to be So there's no doomsday crystal ball now Thank you both so much for your Insight So far there's been so much Alpha in This conversation to take away before I Let you both go I'm very curious to hear Any of your UNC gems that you have in Your portfolio narratives that you might Be watching or things that you just Think wow this is going to make it in This market cycle Ral you mentioned that You are 90% salana so is there anything

Else within the salana ecosystem that You've got on your portfolio or on your Watch list right now no I mean I'm just Trying to do nothing the one thing I've Been observing is stuff like the eth Bitcoin cross you know eth got into the Total hate Zone which always gets Interesting to me um and then the eth Bitcoin cross starts breaking higher uh Bounce right off the bottom of the range I'm interested in that because that's The start of altcoin season in its Truest form so if it breaks bit higher Than here we can see why that will Happen now because the ETF yeah it's Been delayed a bit but we saw it with Bitcoin the Run starts well before the Launch so that then recycles Capital up The risk curve and that that's banana Zone so for me the focus is is the Banana Zone trying to get that right Because that's where you can make a lot Of money so you kind of have to focus Even if you're not doing anything you Just you know a you don't want to lose Your coins because that's the most Painful part of losing it is in the Banana Zone just hold on to your coins And also um don't it up by owning The wrong stuff you know getting way out The risk curve and you're left with the Whole middle of the crypto Market Rallies and you're so far at the risk Curve in some weird political token from

South Korea that you miss out in the Entire rally which I've SE oh you're Still stuck in the last narrative you're Stuck in you know one of the big layer Ones from three Cycles ago thinking it's Definitely going to come back this time And all you card holders I didn't want To say it I didn't want to say it I Don't know so top 10 top 10 market cap Now next he's trying to get me into Trouble he's trying to get Charles is Gonna come whoop your ass Okay so cardano is something that could Potentially not be in the top 10 at the End of this Market cycle is there any Other top 10 by market cap that you Think you know by the end of this Market Cycle they don't really have what it Takes no don't get me I'm not doing I'm Not playing this game because then you Just get hunted like a dog on the Internet by xrp people kadano people no I'm not doing it Okay Arthur um so you know I'll put this out There on this particular venue and I'll Qualify it with more information Probably later this summer once I you Know get back in the swing of things uh Aptose flips Solana in the layer Run Game that's I'll put that out there I'm Not gonna say any more than that and Yeah little te see I've got varying Perception there because I'm on the

Foundation of Suie so um so we we'll go with Move is something the move protocol I Think that's a big narrative to Come we can we can settle that then we Can have the Aptos sui fight afterwards Yeah but this is interesting I know so The future of ler ones so ra you're like Salana sui is also a really interesting One when it comes to speed and techn Technicalities but AR think you think Atos is going to come and flip it I Think Aptos could be the number two L1 Over salana and within this cycle so Obviously that could that's a you know One to threee sort of uh prediction and I'll put more meat on that probably in September of this Year well do you have any questions for Arthur about that no I I'm interested I'm interested I'm I'm just really Interested in this next round of the the Big lir ones and there's a few in that Game that are Interesting um and so let's let's see Because that that's a really profitable Part of the banana zone is this next Trade that that trade you know that was Enormous money-making trade last time And the cycle before um so it will be Again this time most of these tokens Have they they they've picked off from The lows they all launched kind of at The wrong point in the cycle stuff like

That um so it's it's quite a good setup For some of These I don't know this you could Probably throw celest monad monad might Come a bit late in the cycle there's a Few that's that's around that that could Be part of this bigger narrative let's See fantastic guys thank you so much for Taking the time out I really app it Awesome not at all always good Fun well that's all for today's video if You learn something new please let us Know by Smashing that like button if you Want to keep learning then subscribe to The channel and hang that notification Bell so you don't miss the next one if You want to help others learn take a Second to share this video with them and If you're inspired by Arthur and R to Start your investing Journey then check Out the coin Bureau deals page the link Will be down in the description thank You all so much for watching and I'll See you all on the next one this is Jessica signing off [Music]


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