Apple: Pre-Election Year Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the equity verse today we're going To talk about Apple and we're going to Look at the year-to-date return on Investment or Roi if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the Cryptiverse premium at into the I know we mostly talk About cryptocurrency on this channel Because that's of course where most of Volatility is but we actually have built Out the website to accommodate a lot More than just cryptocurrencies and in This video I want to talk a bit more About Apple now apple is a stock that Has a pretty good track history uh Generally trending up over over time I Was curious if there's any type of Seasonality associated with Apple Now this is what the year-to-date Roi Looks like for every year going back to 1981. so obviously we want to clean this Up a little bit but first why don't we Take a quick look at what's going on in 2023 which again is a pre-election year So the election year is next year now Oftentimes we will see apple do somewhat Well throughout the pre-election year Now of course if you if you do run into A recession at some point that can Change seasonality but if you just look At 2013 2019

2015 2015 is a year where we sort of had a Recession scare we didn't actually get a Recession but we had a scare of one and You can see that apple waned as you went Into the second half of the year we can Go back and look at 2011. And 2007 and what you'll see as we sort Of just click through here is Generally speaking where we are right Now what do you notice every single year Around this time Apple undergoes some Form of a correction historically now Some of the time actually most of the Time the correction is relatively Short-lived it only lasts for like a Couple of weeks or so however if you do Again get a you know a bigger economic Scale like a recession uh or just the Sort of the fear of one like 2015 then That could lead to to suppressed prices In the second half of the year but I Thought why not and we could we could Keep going back you know even further And and looking at pre-election years And just kind of seeing how how Apple Performs but I thought why not average Out a lot of these pre-election years Just to get a better sense of what Ultimate seasonality does Apple Experience in in the pre-election year So what we're going to do here is we're Just going to average out 2019 2015 and I mean we can go back as far as as far

As we want to I mean you can see that it Goes all the way back to 1981. uh why Don't we just go through and get most of Them because I don't really want to Leave uh any of them any of them out so We have 2019 2015 2011 2007 2003 1999 1995. let's go ahead and throw in 1991 And 1987 and then one last one 1983. so This will of course accommodate all of The prior pre-election years for Apple We're going to add that series onto the Chart And this is what you get right so you Get something that looks like this and And look at 2023 right I mean you can See that 2023 has so far followed The average of the last you know several Going all the way back to 1983 the Average of the pre-election years Normally though it is around this time Where Apple gets some form of a Correction so on average the Year-to-date Roi at this point is about 1.39 X on day 206 and then by about 217 So 10 days later it's closer to about 1.33x now this year we've seen Apple Outperform the average of the prior Pre-election years it's currently up About 1.49 X on day 206. so again on Average we see apple find a local bottom On 217 which would be approximately 10 Days from now now of course from there Whether Apple can continue going up into The end of the year

Would of course depend on Um you know broader economic uh things That are occurring right like you know Does the FED go too far or or do they Not right is this is it a hard Landing Is it a soft Landing normally you know What you see equities do and I've said This many many times is you normally see Them climb the wall of worry okay until One of two things right either inflation Starts to move up quickly or the labor Market softens up now for the last 40 Years inflation hasn't really been out As big of a deal only in the last couple Years has inflation really resurfaced to Cause the FED to take a much more Aggressive stance on on monetary policy But again the labor market I I suppose Is the the larger thing we have to worry About and up until now the labor market Hasn't really loosened up so until that Time we know that stocks in general Equities love climbing the wall of worry Remember it was actually in 2019 when we Also had an inverted yield curve and you Can see back here how how Apple climbed The wall of worry for basically until Early 2020 and then it saw a sizable Correction right so you had a low the End of 2018 you actually had a recession Come early 2020 and it ended up being a Higher low for Apple so while the Overall Index right if you look at the s P overall the overall index sorry for

The drawings the overall index of the s P put in a lower low that's not Necessarily true for every individual Stock right it's not necessarily true For every individual stock sometimes They don't put in lower lows sometimes They put in higher lows but for the Overall index the recession normally Causes a a lower low and again if you go Back and look at 2015 2016 we kind of Had a scare of a recession but one never Actually materialized and even in that Environment where we just sort of had a Scare of one let me reload this so we Can Um clean this up a little bit when you Look at sorry this pulled up Bitcoin When we when we go back to Apple and you Look at at say this year compared to say 2015 you know it also topped out around Day 200 or so before then finding some Weakness going into the back half of the Year but in 2019 It found a local top around this region Went back down a little bit but then Continued to rally on into the end of The year so you know I do think it's Worthwhile to also take a look at what's The most likely outcome next year as Well because again in pre-election years We tend to climb the wall of worry okay As long as as long as there's no Recession or anything like that Apple Tends to tends to slowly Trend higher

With some seasonal corrections but if You take a look at at other years like 2020 and 2016 And um 2012 and so on and so forth what You'll broadly notice is that if you Average all of them out it's not as Optimistic as pre-election years but I Think one of the reasons for that is Because you know in election years There's more uncertainty right there's a Lot more uncertainty in election years And so Um markets don't really like uncertainty Right they would prefer for things to to Be a lot more crystal clear so if you Were to just to average out all of these Going all the way back to say 1980 84. And we average that The r the ROI on average for Apple During election years is is a lot lower Right it's only about 1.2 x or so by the End of the year Whereas in pre-election years we know That it can go up 1.4 1.5 x right so a Lot more a lot more to be gained in Pre-election years than typically Election years assuming you have no Recession so I thought this was Worthwhile to look at because again it Is in you know around that August September time frame where Apple does Experience some form of a correction and If you were to go take a look you know

At the just at the stock price right I Mean it's currently trading at around 194 195. I had to imagine we will get Some some form of a correction at some Point and whether it's just a sort of a Higher low and then Trends higher or Whether it's a a larger correction down Will of course depend on on If the Fed Accomplishes their goal of reducing wage Inflation Um by by softening up the labor market But up until now the labor market has Proved relatively resilient Have you already I mean for for people Who haven't watched this channel uh very Much you just if you were to go to job Openings and look at at this this is one Of the reasons why the unemployment rate Has remained relatively low it's not That the FED hasn't been making any Progress on softening the labor market It's just that we were coming from such Extreme levels that so far all that's Really accomplished is slowly getting us Back to the prior Trend and you could Argue that we're not even back to the Prior Trend yet so whenever we go below The prior Trend that could be where There's more of an issue and where the Unemployment rate might actually go back Up but we also know that that the labor Market takes a long time to move it Doesn't move that quickly Um you know it can take years months if

Not years to really play out so that's Something that we have to keep an eye on Hopefully you guys enjoyed this video on Apple year-to-date return on investment My goal has always been to try to Include Equities into the analysis on this Channel It's just that I think more people care About the cryptocurrency market because That's what we mostly talk about but I'll do my best to occasionally talk About equities Um my general strategy with equities Often is quite boring uh as compared to Crypto which crypto strategy is kind of Boring too but with equities I I usually Just stick to low expense ratio index Funds Um rather than spend too much time you Know trying to trying to index are Trying to just pick out individual funds Or individual stocks but again I mean You know there is some seasonality Associated with these equities and if if We do see some form of a correction here By Apple over the next couple of weeks Then perhaps it'll be worthwhile to do a Follow-up video on Apple Um maybe maybe mid to late August to see If it's following the general path of Prior pre-election years or if there is Some form of economic weakness showing And therefore making it go more like

2015. if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up but again check Out the sale on into the cryptoverse Premium at into the you Guys next time bye


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