Analyst’s honest opinion on BlackRock ETF Bitcoin approval

The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in The United States has never seemed so Close and that would be a massive game Changer for crypto financial advisors Manage about 30 trillion in assets That's why it's a big deal is is what The ETF represents it's a bridge to all This uh wealth last month the world's Largest asset manager BlackRock filed an Application for a Bitcoin spot exchange Traded fund with the SEC that triggered A major crypto rally and a new wave of Applications from other major firms Still the SEC has so far rejected all Applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs it's Chair Gary Gensler has spearheaded an Unprecedented Crackdown on the crypto Industry in recent times so How likely Is the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in The United States what would be its Impact on the markets and would it be Beneficial for the long-term goals of Crypto to find out I talked to Eric Balchunas a senior TF Analyst at Bloomberg intelligence I'm Giovanni on This show we challenged the ideas that Shaped the world of crypto in each Episode we assessed a crypto narrative a Macroeconomic Outlook or a potentially Disruptive technology only the most Solid ideas will make it to the other Side Foreign Why would the approval of a Bitcoin ETF

Be such a big deal Yeah it's a big deal is that an ETF is The platform or vehicle that so many Financial advisors prefer right it's Like you know how back in the day Millennials prefer getting their music Through iTunes or digital whereas the Boomers still use compact disks people Just like things delivered in a certain Way and the ETF is the format in which The Boomers and the financial advisors Prefer their Um Investments delivered in and this Matters because financial advisors Manage about 30 trillion in assets and a Lot of that is the kind of people who Are a little on the more wealthy side And who need help you know Estate Planning and taxes and this would open Up All that money it still wouldn't be a Big weighting in a normal portfolio For somebody who's a casual investor but Even like one or two percent Of 30 trillion is a lot of money right And you know that's A big deal that that's why it's a big Deal is is what the ETF represents it's A bridge to all this uh wealth the big Game changer seems to be the uh move of BlackRock which is the world's largest Uh Um asset manager it has around 9 Trillion dollars worth of assets under

Management so Um we know that the SEC has a very bad Record in terms of its relationship with The ETFs ETF applications it rejected around I Think 30 applications in the last decade For Bitcoin spot ETF the first one was Filed by the Winklevoss twins around 10 Years ago And so why would this time be different Well if that's a great question and our Odds of approval within the next we'll Say this year is about 50 so that means 50 it won't get approved right and that 50 Note won't get approved is because The SEC hasn't said anything new Uh it's not like they come around and There's been a speech by Gary Gensler Where they've written something that has Created an opening This is purely something BlackRock is Seeing so BlackRock this is why this Matters they're they're very smart and They don't just throw filings out Willy-nilly they are a very high level Not messing around asset manager right So they clearly see something Out there that they think they can get Through the regulators and so the Original flying from BlackRock if you Read it Said NASDAQ and coinbase will be working Together

And our ETF will be the one that's Listed so when I see NASDAQ and BlackRock clearly having some Zoom calls On this I'm sure and going through their Checklist they're not filing unless they They really think this has a really good Shot so that's what's different this Time Um everybody else kind of is just Jumping back in line there's nothing too New there uh it wasn't like uh Fidelity Or Um uh wisdom trees smiling raised our Odds we went from one percent to fifty Percent basically on BlackRock but now That we've talked to Arc a little more We've had some work discussions uh we're More even at 51 like if we had to pick 49 or 51 we would go 51. the only Question is timing Well I still think it's 50 odds this Year It goes up dramatically if we go into Early next year because The way the filings are the SEC can Delay and delay and delay and their Final decision the first final decision They have to make is in early January With Arc the next ones would be like March April so if they punted punted Punted and then approved that final Decision that would put us into next Year a little bit but not by much Um so I like I said I think the odds are

Good that we get there okay so Um Arc has this basically time advantage Over the rest but BlackRock has the big Name behind it yeah I mean that this is This is like an arc surreal you know Small company Indie independent Blackrock's the big Behemoth it's you Know a lot of this is just so Fascinating because there's so many Unknowns it involves like David Goliath Uh a bunch of people who are all racing For what's going to be a big pot of gold So like Bitcoin will get all these new investors But the asset manager who offers the ETF If you're out first or maybe second you Know if you're early It's usually very good it's hard to Penetrate the first couple but get all The liquidity and so they know that this Is a almost near law of a successful Product so they're all scrambling to be First and who will win we you know we Don't know we saw that a couple of years Ago when the Bitcoin future ETF was Approved that brought in uh in a very Few days Um if I'm not mistaken billions of new Capital uh into the Bitcoin Market Um what would be the potential here uh In terms of uh capital inflow that we Would see in case of an approval so I Think A a because of the SBF FTX scandal

It wouldn't be as big of a launch as I Think it would have if it was before That like in the you know 2021 era if a Spot Bitcoin went there I I think it Would be you know 10 billion in the First week I think this will be a Slightly more measured launch I think Because of SPF FTX it could take years Before some of these Boomer types are Really gonna get over that over time Though I had no doubt that spot Bitcoin ETS will crush the Futures ETFs in Assets remember gold ETFs I think They're somewhere around 70 billion but They've been around for a while so I Could see crypto ultimately getting up To about where gold is after a couple Years when we saw that um BlackRock Filed this uh application a couple of Weeks ago and the price of Bitcoin Spiked up and since then it has been it Has been quite stable around the 30 000 Benchmark do you think that that was That was it that was the market reaction Uh or we're gonna see a bigger reaction In case it gets approved Um that's a great question because you Know there's that whole uh phrase on Wall Street which is by the rumor sell The news Right so people are buying the rumor Obviously right Um when bitto launched the Futures ETF That marked the top actually like there

Was a This is actually before FTX but the Right around then Bitcoin went down a Little bit so there might have been a Similar situation of buying the room or Selling the news with the Futures eats Yet long term If you have More of the mainstream money If you have Bitcoin in a vehicle or Platform that a lot of people prefer You're going to get some adopters and That's obviously going to mean buy Orders or Bitcoin if you buy the ETF the ETF market makers have to go buy Bitcoin Could there be like a sell the news drop After the uh ETF comes out sure but Certainly over time Um I if I would If I'm a crypto person Um again I would just look at this as a Long-term View and I would go watch Larry Fink's interview yesterday on Fox Business Um listen to this guy talk he's the guy Who runs the biggest asset manager on Planet Earth It's not just the ETF he's very bullish Overall and he keeps tends to set the Tone with a lot of other wealthy Managers I wouldn't be surprised if we See we've already seen Fidelity sort of Get in involved and so you get these Bigger mainstream companies the amount

Of money that they run have access to And are trusted by is just massive Coinbase is playing a big role in all These fightings the SEC uh sued coinbase Not long ago together with binos Um so it seems to be you know bad in a Bad position here and why do you think They pick coinbase don't you think that Coinbase could actually decrease the Chances that uh the uh the the ETF is Gonna be green lighted at the end Yeah it's a good question I've been Getting this question a lot um Two things on that first I think the SEC It is just it I think they view coinbase As the least dirty shirt It's not like they love coinbase but Relative to binance they do Now coinbase also Is working closely with BlackRock not Just now but they're in a partnership With them to custody other assets for Them so BlackRock must see something in Coinbase that's legitimate and then NASDAQ comes in NASDAQ must see Something so NASDAQ and BlackRock are well aware that SEC sui coinbase and yet they're still Going to work with them My guess is Blackrock NASDAQ See how they can help Hui base of all To the point where the sec's comfortable With them a lot of people are concerned That the original ethos of Bitcoin would

Be ruined or or affected by this because Uh what what they say is that Bitcoin is Created to be Um a self-owned asset so people should Take ownership of that Bitcoin this was The original ethos of the technology by Introducing this spot ETF people are Going to be incentivized to delegate Ownership to uh basically this Custodians they want own directly Bitcoin they will just get exposure to It so in that case they will eat us a Bitcoin will get a bit lost what do you Think about it Yeah it's a fair point I mean you know You see some of these people who are Real like they would be trashing Larry Fink two years ago now they love them And you're like wait uh you know isn't a Little inconsistent that you love to be Sort of the outsider who's against this Sort of system and here comes literally The system right and now you're cheering This on there's always been this tension Between the ethos and just the price Going up And I think ultimately if the price goes Up that's that cures the ethos Internal dilemma Uh for a lot of people even if Larry Fink went nuts and BlackRock went Bankrupt your Bitcoin is saved with the Custodian those are the checks and Balances with a regulated fund like an

ETF that's why the custodian is picked And the custodian stores it Um and so there that's really great it's Physically backed and that's what makes The ETF different than something like an FDX Um and so I would almost consider just the ETF Just almost like another exchange just One that's way more legitimate if I had To put a number on it Three Forks of People like it seems like 25 are Skeptical there's maybe five percent That purely hate it thanks to that Eric For being on our show that was a cool Conversation thank you very much it was Uh great to join you Foreign

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OUR TAKE

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