Altcoin Outlook

Hey everyone Thanks for jumpping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about the altcoin market and We're just going to provide a bit of Discussion about it if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptoverse decom I had a little note For myself to at least acknowledge Whenever total three put in a higher High we always knew this day would come Of course but the general argument was That for a long time the altcoin market Was doing nothing more than putting in Lower highs and you can see it was just One lower high after another and I want To be you know open and honest right This is in fact a higher high there's no Denying it there's no discounting it There's just nothing more than just Acknowledging that this is in fact the First higher high that the altcoin Market has achieved essentially since November of 2021 so it is at least Sort of a a Milestone um within the altcoin market And so a lot of people are wondering What what does that ultimately mean you Know my sort of argument has for the Last two years right for the last two Years my argument has been that crypto

Exposure should be limited to bitcoin Right uh mostly limited to bitcoin and The reason has and you know for me Continues to be the argument that Bitcoin dominance is heading higher Right so if you believe the Bitcoin Dominance is heading higher which again Doesn't necessarily have to be true Right but it's been true so far and if You believe the Bitcoin dominance is Heading higher then the general argument Has been you know for the last two and a Half years that altcoins would just Bleed back to bitcoin and we've seen That right we've seen that uh time and Time again with the fact that Bitcoin Dominance has continued to put in higher Lows and higher highs so while total Three has just now put in its first Higher high it is worth noting that Bitcoin put in its first higher high you Know way back over here right a long Time Ago back in in January back in January is when Bitcoin Put in its first higher high and it took Almost another year for total three to Do the same and one of the things that We've said many times is that if if if Bitcoin basically what happens in in in In the various parts of the market cycle Right Bitcoin leads the bull market Right so if Bitcoin is going to go Higher if the the if the cryptocurrency

Asset class as a whole is going to go Higher then Bitcoin will lead the bull Market and if Bitcoin leads the bull Market then Bitcoin dominance goes up And if Bitcoin dominance goes up then Altcoins bleed back to bitcoin that's The argument and if it's not uh on path To go to new all-time highs then Bitcoin Protects you it minimizes your downside Risk right it gives you exposure to the Upside of crypto while minimizing your Downside risk in the altcoin market now Of course recently altcoins have popped Off quite a bit right I mean there's you Know you can see that a lot of them have Have moved well off their lows polka dot Is is now you know about $6 or so Links At around $15 Avalanche is at at almost $21 and so On and so forth right madx at 90 um Xrp's at at at 64 cents Adas at at 37 Cents and so on and so forth right so a Lot of these think this on regular scale So a lot of these you can see have in Fact sort of broken out of this trend That they were previously in it's a fact Right it's a fact so I do one I do at Least want to acknowledge that now in Terms of you know what does that mean For an investing portfolio the first Thing I will say again is that what's Right for you is probably not what is Right for someone else so if you want to Take on the risk of the altcoin market

And that's right for you it doesn't Necessarily mean it's right for someone Else or if someone else doesn't want to Take on the risk that doesn't mean that That someone else shouldn't right There's always a different risk Tolerance for everyone The thing that I go back to right that I Constantly go back to I I have to ask Myself with Bitcoin dominance has it Broken the structure has it and despite The fact that total three right despite The fact that total three has in fact This total despite the fact that total Three the altcoin market has put in a Higher high what you will in fact notice Is that Bitcoin Dominance has not broken the trend right Right at least not yet now if you're new To this channel again the argument that I've had for a long time is that we are Just entering into a long period where The Bitcoin dominance will Trend higher And you can see that we have had a low Then a high and then a higher high or Sorry a higher low higher high and then Another higher low another higher high And so on and so forth right the same Pattern just keeps repeating a series of Higher lows and higher highs in Bitcoin Dominance including stable coin that Really started in September 2022 and if You exclude stable coins this trend Started back in May of 2021 a series of

Higher highs and higher lows for the Bitcoin dominance so it's not to say That altcoins on their USD pairs can Never go up we know that they can They've had plenty of great rallies over The last two and a half years it's just That a lot of them have been bleeding on Their on their Bitcoin Pairs and in Until Bitcoin dominance change this Changes this trend then there's no clear And obvious answer that they're done Bleeding I think that's the hard part Right everyone wants to know where do Altcoins ultimately bottom out against Bitcoin or where does the Bitcoin Dominance top I can't tell you how many People at every single high said that That is where Bitcoin dominance topped And then you fast forward a few more Months and then Bitcoin dominance is Going on another run and the reason is As we've seen every time Bitcoin goes up Every time the price of Bitcoin USD goes Up the dominance goes up right I mean Basically all these rallies that we've Seen in Bitcoin dominance corresponded To bitcoin USD going Higher so if Bitcoin leads the bull Market right if you assume that there's Two scenarios here Bitcoin leads the Bull market Bitcoin dominance goes up if There's the downside Risk then altcoin coins would go down on Their USD pairs but Bitcoin still gives

You exposure to the Outside in terms Of sort of the derivative metric of Bitcoin dominance that we've looked at a Lot it's total 3 minus USD Bitcoin and That's this chart and this chart is the Chart that you know should help people Identify the risk in the altcoin market Right you sort of identify the risk in The coin Market we're currently at 45% Okay we're currently at 45% the bull Market support band for this metric Ranges from 45 to 46% okay So the risk to all Bitcoin pairs is that They come down this way right that's the Risk to all Bitcoin pairs is that while They might go up on their USD pair if Bitcoin goes up they might not keep Pace With Bitcoin if if Bitcoin goes up too Quickly on the other hand if Bitcoin Goes down then altcoins would likely go Down on their USD pairs so if you look At this chart and you look what happened Last cycle you'll see that the first Test of this region at around that 40% Level we got a bounce and then we got Another bounce on the second test right The same thing over here right we've Gotten a couple of bounces here off of The same level right around 40% or so Plus or minus a couple percent And what I think we have to pay Attention to is what happens on all

Bitcoin Pairs right here so for the next Month what Happens because you can see back over Here after the second bounce it just got Rejected by the bull market support ban So will it get rejected again that's the Question right will it get rejected Again because despite the fact that Altcoins have rallied significantly Recently this still has not broken above The bull market support Band remember this drop here Corresponded to a Bitcoin Rally it took a Bitcoin rally to break Altcoins off of their Bitcoin support Levels that's what it took back then I Don't know what it'll be now but that's What it was back then it was in a Bitcoin rally that took altcoins off of Their Bitcoin support Levels and so there is still a chance That something like that plays Out does that mean you should not invest In altcoins does mean you should invest In altcoins that is up to you that is up To you my argument has been for a long Time and I've said this for the last two Years is that Altcoins can go lower in the pre prehab Year even when Bitcoin doesn't and they Did a lot of altcoins have the other Argument is that if the economy slows Down then altcoins get hit the hardest

Now there's a chance that that still Happens right but it clearly I mean it Hasn't slown down enough to have any Negative you know any material effect on The market just yet and it might not I Mean it might not if it does play out it Could you know it could be next month it Could be next week could be three months From now could be nine months from now Right no one knows no one knows but the Point is that it's based on the risk Tolerance that you want to take on okay And when I look at this when I look at This my assumption my my sort of my Baseline assumption is to stick with the Trend until proven otherwise right stick With the trend until proven otherwise a Lot of times people will be better off Just riding the trend until proven Otherwise and then you and then you sort Of switch sides right which is why Until dominance right until Bitcoin Dominance breaks this trend I'm going to Assume it's going to keep going Higher Until It Breaks the trend I'm Going to assume that it keeps going Higher meaning I'm going to assume Whether it might be a faulty assumption Or not I'm going to assume that all Bitcoin pairs will still Struggle any given month they could Bounce right But this is still a series of higher Highs and higher lows and December

Normally I mean normally a lot of December as we see Bitcoin dominance go Up so you Know I still look at Bitcoin I mean you Can look at Bitcoin USD and say well I Mean if this thing keeps breaking to the Upside right if this keep if this thing Keeps going up then how is the dominance Not going to go up with it because every Single time Bitcoin breaks out to the Upside dominance goes up so if this gets Another explosive move dominance is Going up and if Bitcoin goes back down Let's say it goes back down to the bull Market War band or something then all USD pairs take a Hit So the purpose of this video right the Initial purpose of this video is to come Out and say total three has put in a Higher high there is a chance that the Trend is broken right there is a chance That I mean the trend is broken right But there's a chance that that means the Market conditions are changing um but I Still think that you know that Ultimately remains to be seen with Bitcoin dominant still putting in higher Highs and higher lows if you go back to Last cycle you know we had a sizable Rally which is interesting because it's Actually playing out a little bit Different this time right this rally Here that we had did not go above the

2019 High okay so this rally that we've Experienced today has already taken out The 2023 high right you can see that Pretty clearly but what's also Interesting is that back then while it Did not take out the 2019 High it did Take out that Q3 High just before the Collapse what's also interesting is that This move as impressive as has been it Still has not taken out the Q3 high from 2022 which is you know a few tens of Billion higher than where we currently Are Today so again sort of repeat this High took out the 2022 Q3 High right this pump but it did not take Out the 2019 High so you could say like you know it Took out this one but not this one but In this case over here it's taken out This one but it hasn't taken out this One yet So I mean here's an example where you Put in a higher high and then it still Bled down but I mean there's no denying That you know there's a similar Market Structure here right where you go up and Then you fade and then you rally right You you sort of you go up you fade and Then you Rally so that's where we are today I Just want to be as open and honest as I Can I'm not trying to like hide around It I'm trying to say hey

Guys this is a higher high right like This is a higher high by the altcoin Market on its USD pair there's no Denying that you know there's simply no Denying it it's a higher high you got to Look at that right and and start to Question Things I also you know just to keep Myself honest I just I go back and look At at what they're doing on their Bitcoin Pairs and I try to I try to Figure out right have they turned the Tide against Bitcoin coin and I don't I I don't think there's an obvious case to Be made that they've had that they have Yet it doesn't mean that they're not in The process of doing that but I don't Think there's an obvious case to say That they have because we are still Below the bull Mark support band when Regards to Total 3 minus USD Bitcoin When you look at Bitcoin dominance again It is still above its bull market Support Band and I I always have to go back to Those right I always have to go back to You know where are all Bitcoin pairs What is the Bitcoin dominance doing and The Bitcoin dominance still looks like It's still in an uptrend at this point Now I get it right I mean if if this Goes and puts down a lower low then Clearly The Tide is Shifting but I don't I don't see any

Compelling case just yet to say that That is like set and stone and Definitive of course there's going to be A million people out there they're going To tell you that Bitcoin dominance is Top but I mean they've been saying the Same thing for two and a half years yes Eventually they'll be right and and Altcoins will turn the tide against Bitcoin but I'm not convinced that that Phase has occurred yet right I'm not um I guess what it would take to convince Me would be I mean I take a lot of Things I mean I would assume we would Need looser monetary policy but I think At the very least you need to see the Trend on dominance Change right and that just I mean it Hasn't happened Yet so from a risk adjusted returns Perspective a bit a Bitcoin heavy Portfolio a Bitcoin heavy crypto Portfolio would still seem attractive Because it gives you the potential Upside and in case Bitcoin breaks up but It also minimizes the Downside be that as a may I mean I I can Understand the Allure of the altcoin Market I mean when they're popping off 20% every other day right I mean like I Get like what you know people the fomo Feeling that comes like we're all very Familiar with that feeling but I get That feeling um but we still haven't

Seen Them you know durably changed on their Bitcoin pairs just yet now some of them Have I mean there there's certainly some Altcoins that have it's not like every Altcoin is in the same downtrend on Their Bitcoin pairs it's just that the Collectively they have been collectively And if you include ethereum and you go Look at total 2 minus USD to bitcoin you Know that bull market support ban is Still up at 82 to 83% and it's only at 79% you know ethereum has been weaker Right I mean there's no denying it it Doesn't mean that it's not going to pick Up but it has been weaker than than the A lot of the altcoin market and it's one Of the reasons why the ethereum Dominance keeps going down yes it had a Little bit of a rally but the ethereum Dominance has basically been in a Downtrend since June of 2023 and we said that this was likely Going to happen right we said that Ethereum dominance was likely going to Break to the downside Here so that's where we are today um Total three currently coming in at 420 Billion it is a higher High um the next Major Milestone I suppose will be around 450 450 billion if Bitcoin rallies too Quickly then it could break altcoins Down on their Bitcoin support levels if Bitcoin pauses and doesn't do anything

Then of course altcoins can rally and so On and so forth but I just wanted to Provide a brief discussion on the Altcoin market if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at inth cryptoverse Tocom I'll see you guys next time bye

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