What the heck is going on is the crypto Market broken are there still good Investments out there and when will it Recover these are probably some of the Questions you are no doubt asking but The truth of what is happening right now Can be broken down into 10 different Charts and today we are going to take a Look at them so don't go Anywhere the charts that I'll be looking At today come to us courtesy of a Coinbase institutional halfe report I Will leave it link to it in the Description for you guys to come back And read later as always I will be Giving you some of our feedback on the Charts but I am not a financial Investment or even a life advisor so Please consult your investment advisor Before making any crypto Investments or Any Investments for that matter cool Cool let's dive in first let's start With this chart over here and that takes A look at a broad protocol TV L's now This includes both layer ones and layer 2os however there's a catch and that's Because they have normalized the value In tvl by the price of the token Basically purely looking at the dollar Value of the tvl in a protocol can give You a slightly warped perception of how Much new dollar value is flowing into The protocol and that's because given That the native token is locked in the
Protocol the dollar value of the tvl Could be skewed based on how well the Token itself self has performed in other Words tvl can move irrespective of Whether you get any new funds flowing Into the protocol or not so for example Although sui and eptos have both had About the same percentage growth in Their tvl in dollar terms Aptos has Actually had more growth when you Normalize for price and that's because The price of SOI has performed much Better than that of AP and this is an Interesting comparison as these two are Perhaps the most exciting move-based alt L1's out there there are a number of Other interesting examples over here as Well I mean take a look at the growth of Ton for example I mean that's mad growth In tvl and you'll know why this is the Case if you watched our recent video on Underrated crypto of which ton coin was One of them that will be linked to below Of course it's not looking too good on The opposite end of the spectrum though For the likes of optimism which has seen The largest fall in price adjusted tvl At the layer like arbitrum and polygon Have performed better although Bas has Seen the biggest growth as a layer 2 and That's probably no doubt as a result of The mean coin craze of March in Aggregate though tvl has grown faster Than the total crypto market cap and
This is a promising sign as it shows That people are engaging with these Protocols using them and most Importantly deploying more Capital into Them this over here is the chart of the Active addresses versus total Transaction fees in standard deviation Terms for May and this was for a number Of different layer 1es and layer 2os as You know standard deviation is a measure Of variation from an average and in this Case it was measured in the months from January to April as you can see there Are only two coins that have seen Positive growth in fees and active Addresses in May and that was salana and Tron surprised to see Tron over there That aside it seems as if layer 2 is Have grown a lot in May when it comes to Additional addresses this is perhaps Because of the roll out of the denune Upgrade with EIP 4844 it then also makes sense when you Consider that the net fees have fallen Because of this so that's basically the Lower blob transaction fees oh and um by The way if you guys want an overview of What EIP 4844 is and what it did for Ethereum and its layer tws look no Further than down in the description now When it comes to the protocol losers in May binance smart chain and cardano saw The most pullback both in terms of fees And address count it's not looking good
Brav anyways before we move on to the Next chart help me out with a tap of That like button to give it a boost and Slap that subscribe as well to make sure You get our next vids it would be much Appreciated Crypto okay welcome to the Bro crypto Podcast I'm chadus Maximus go by Mex Chad 100 on Twitter and I am Giga dick The dude with the biggest p&l in all of Crypto bro bro say what my p&l is 100% Bigger than yours bro please I was Longing Doge and drinking neat badier While you were still spot buying BTC on Mount gox bro bro you still driving a 2020 Aventador where's your Bugatti at Bro bro when BK hits a dollar I'm going To be rocking a super yacht while you're Still stuck in traffic bro the Bro Crypto podcast is sponsored by the coin Bureau deals page if you're looking for Trading fee discounts of up to 60% Exchange sign up bonuses of up to $60,000 and amazing discounts on Hardware wallets then don't be a bro be In the no and check out the link in the Description below and now back to the Show BR Crypto bro bro bro bro Bro bro oh uh okay they're still going Uh right um look you can either listen To these idiots for the next 4 hours or You can head to the coin Bureau deals Page and find something useful your call
Over here they break down the ethereum Transaction fees in the top 50 Smart Contracts these 50 Smart contracts Account for more than 55% of all the gas Spent on ethereum over the year more Evidence of the success ESS of Denon can Be seen on this chart as well and that's Because the percentage of transaction Fees that have been paid by rollups went From 12% of main net fees down to less Than 1% now that's a pretty significant Fall however it's been less of a success For the ultrasound money Theory as eth Has become inflationary once again I.E New eth issued as rewards is higher than The burn from EIP 1448 you can see this More broadly with the total fees in eth Which has been paid over the past 6 Months this peaked back in March but has Since been coming back down a lot that Being said the authors think that if we Were to see a return of Market Volatility then this would drive people To start trading again and therefore pay Higher fees for Block space more fees Equals more burn less eth and hopefully Higher price when it comes to growth two Of the smart contract use cases that Have seen the most growth in fees paid Have been Bots uh the me type and the Telegram ones the latter are no doubt Additive to the ecosystem and the former Are arguably extractive following on This chart we have over here is next and
It's the total tvl on ethereum's layer 2s mapped against those aforementioned Total eth fees and as you can see tvl Has increased by 2.4 times over the past 6 months and most of the growth seems to Have come from from base and blast However I happen to think that the Former is genuine tvl and the latter is A bit more speculative and I say that Because Blast has seen growth through Numerous airdrop seasons and one of the Few reasons as to why people want to Gravitate to it as a layer 2 is because Of this these Farm tokens are about to Be dropped to users and may even have Dropped by the time this video goes out Whether these users are likely to Continue using blast after the drop Without other Seasons been announced I Mean that's anybody's guess I personally Think that the airdrop meta is kind of Broken right now and and blast seems to Be one of the biggest farms there is as A layer two right now but you know time Will tell onto the next chart and it's Time for some Bitcoin onchain analysis They take a look at active and inactive Supply of Bitcoin just a quick bit of Terminology active Supply is that which Has moved onchain in at least 3 months And inactive Supply is that which has Been unmoved for up to one year here you Can see a long-term evolution of these Supply metrics for these two types of
Holders the theory is that drops in Active Supply have historically trailed Local price tops basically people are Slowing down their transfers and Activity in general and in early April Of this year that active Supply reached The top of 4 million BTC and since that Time though it has been coming down down And was at 3.1 million in June so given That the local top was close to April This Theory appears to have played out Again when it comes to the inactive Supply though it has not moved anywhere Since the beginning of the year so the Longer term investors aren't moving Their coins for sale just yet so maybe We do have longer to go in this bull Market well at least we hope so right Next chart and this takes a look at the Correlation Matrix between Bitcoin Ethereum and a whole host of other asset Classes over the past 90 days as you Know correlation measures how much two Variables move together or don't move Together those that are over 50% or Lower than minus 50% are considered Generally to be statistically Significant as you can see Bitcoin and Ethereum are quite correlated at 80% Although this is down slightly from Earlier in the year when it comes to Other assets uh there doesn't appear to Be a real statistical significance in The correlation coefficients for example
The 90-day correlation with the s&p500 Is only 36% and if you look at how Stocks have performed over the past Month compared to crypto it kind of Makes sense stocks are breaking all-time Highs whereas Bitcoin has been kind of Pushing sideways for some time and even Fell quite considerably last week over Here they have a chart of the daily Volumes for both spot and Futures Market Market for ethereum and Bitcoin in the Most recent month the volumes were down At least 34% from their March Peaks Which was quite a big drop having said That though these volumes are still Higher than all months since September Of 2022 excluding March of course so Things are still way better now than They were at other points in the earlier Cycle it's also worth noting the impact That the spot ETFs had on spot volume The spot volumes in May are 50% higher Than those that we saw in December and Then zoning in on the Bitcoin ETF share Volumes themselves at 1.2 billion they Now account for 14% of global spot Volumes it will be really interesting to See what impact the launch of ethereum ETFs will have on eth spot volume I Don't personally expect it to be Anywhere near as much of an impact as Bitcoins but it could still surprise to The upside anyways here we have a chart For the open interest of Bitcoin Futures
This includes Perpetual futures or per As well as those on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME what's really Interesting is the growth in open Interest on CME Futures as you can see They increased by 2.2 times since the Start of the year and it's at record Highs the growth has been even more Pronounced than when they launched Futures ETFs in September so what gives Well it could also explain why why the Price action of Bitcoin hasn't been as Impressive over the past two months even Though the spot ETF flows have been Relatively strong and that is the basis Trade quite simply people are engaging In an Arbitrage trade or cash and carry Trade on the basis or spread between the CME Futures instruments and the spot Products I talked about this a few weeks Ago in a tweet but basically these flows Into the ETF products over the past Month have been delta neutral I.E there Has been equal and offsetting selling by The Brokers that are hedging this trade Something that can now fully be done With registered broker dealers and Something that the report does point to It's also interesting how much market Share the CME Futures have gained in the Past year compared to normal Pips this Can only point to the fact that more and More institutions are getting involved In the crypto markets given that they
Are the predominant users of these CME Futures mov over to the eth charts the CME Futures are also at an all-time high However they still remain a much smaller Percentage of all outstanding Futures Open interest compared to the percentage Of that in the Bitcoin charts so perhaps There is less institutional interest in Eth Visa Bitcoin this is something I Postulated in a video on eth ETFs which You can find in the description of Course anywh who something else that is Really interesting here is the spike That we see in e open interest Immediately following any of the Important ethereum milestones and Upgrades one other thing which is quite Surprising for me is the demand that There is for fixed term Futures on Centralized exchanges this is about the Same amount of open interest that we are Seeing for the CME Futures instruments I Guess it could also be the demand from Smaller scale Cash and Carry Traders as I don't see any reason as to why any Directional Traders would favor fixed Term Futures over perss but that's maybe Just me curious if there are any Traders Out there have you ever used the fixed Term Futures on these centralized Exchanges let me know down below the Final chart is further proof that the Recent growth in Bitcoin ETF Holdings Since April can be attributed to the
Basis trade and that's because they have Normalized the spot ETF market cap by The CME open interest as you can see the ETF AUM appears to be relatively flat And that's as opposed to back after the ETFs were first launched the normalized ETF Holdings were growing and peaked 40 Days after the launch which was about During March it's no surprise then that We saw Bitcoin making that new all-time High in March I happen to think that we Will only start to get more pure Directional ETF flows when more Liquidity starts coming into the system And if you want to know when that is Well look no further than my Bitcoin Price prediction video from the other Day top right Po that's it for all the charts for Today and like I said it will be linked To below for you guys to come back and Read later would love to get some of Your feedback on it though so let me Know what you think which protocols tvl Growth surprised you the most what about The lack of price action with the ETF Flows is it the basis trade or or Something else let me know down below Finally if you found this video fire Then fire up those likes don't forget to Subscri subcribe to make sure you're Next in line to receive my latest coin Buau Vibes oh and hit that Bell as well To get these while they're hot that's it
My fellow crypto fans got to fly [Music]
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